The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:31 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:19 am

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:36 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:25 pm Anyone else worried about Jack?

Me.

Let's see if the plinko ball bounces this way.

Fake solving is like a Plinko board. Yes, there's movement, but it's like... discreet steps, and it's always moving towards just a couple outcomes. An individual movement might look somewhat fluid, but if you look at the whole board, it's easy to see how structured and rigid it really is.

Credit to Newcomb for the fun Price Is Right analogy. If you're going to invoke it though you need to know what it is!

I still think Jack looks fine.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:51 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:57 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:14 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:00 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:44 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:39 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:25 pm

Jay: Mac going after Sprityo is lousy cause lhf.

Also Jay: What if Creature is bad?

1) Creature is not low-hanging fruit if numerous players read him as civilian.

2) sprityo can be bad anyway, whatever. Consistency is meaningless

Plink plink plink

It’s a neat analogy, but applying it here is nonsense. My reads in this mess are the opposite of Plinko. I am all over the place

...I must still misunderstand the plinko thing bc I thought that's basically what it meant and what jack is pointing out

It means all over the place in an unnatural sounding way I suppose.

Like when Jay shifts his reads on me, you, Mac, Creature, etc suddenly.

I'd make the argument that that's a good thing.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:21 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:08 pm [Mafia] don't disappear abruptly, they don't come up with excuses all the time.

This statement is in fact false, if not impossible to prove.

Jack, Myself, and Rej had a minimal played game and we won Sockville Penitentiary

I literally didn't show up until day 3 (not because i didnt want to but still)

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:44 am Nothing to go on?!? I said like half a dozen things.
Analysis in less words than Mac: a lot of hedging. Too many words for no real scum accusation.
A general tell especially early is that mafia makes town reads and that town makes scum reads within this kinda context and this seems clear of that but clear in the sense that every analysis was “this seems suspicious I wonder what I think about that will you please tell me what I should think about it”

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:35 am I'm looking at TSP's play in Fallout (he was mafia and played well -- he was only lynched with behind-the-scenes Sloonei heroics) and comparing it to this one, exclusively for pre-Night 1 content.

Fallout

Persona 5

First look: general activity level by post rate.

Fallout - 28 posts in 48 hours - avg 0.59 posts per hour
Persona 5 - 99 posts in 78.5 hours - avg 1.26 posts per hour

His activity rate in this game is better than double that of Fallout. Cool.

Second look: response to suspicion/criticism

Fallout

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:44 am Nothing to go on?!? I said like half a dozen things.
Analysis in less words than Mac: a lot of hedging. Too many words for no real scum accusation.
A general tell especially early is that mafia makes town reads and that town makes scum reads within this kinda context and this seems clear of that but clear in the sense that every analysis was “this seems suspicious I wonder what I think about that will you please tell me what I should think about it”

This was a response to his teammate sabie in that game. It's dramatic (see: "?!?"). That's actually about the only half-relevant bit from that game's Day 1. Tony had a very clean game.

Persona 5
Not dramatic
Not dramatic
Could be called dramatic, but I don't really feel that
Not dramatic

It's a small sample size. For whatever it's worth though, I think it's to Tony's credit.

Third look: reads

Fallout
Throws out blank town read on Epi
Generic prod of Long Con with vote
Generic prod of BWT with vote
Descriptive but also non-concrete suspicion of teammate sabie
Hops on Epi's suspicion of sabie / vague gripe with LC
Synopsis: Tony's reads were empty throughout the early game here except when he was talking about his teammate.

Persona 5
Avoidant of nutella/JJJ spat, gut town on both
Orange on Drago and Jack for heaping on early suspicion of me
GTH scum on Epi
Said Rej willfully misinterpreted him
More complete reads list
Reiterated suspicion of nutella and Dragomir
Accuses nutella of parroting Mac's sprityo suspicion
GTH reads -- only change I note from previous reads is Rej (slight town to scum)
Synopsis: Tony casts a considerably wider net in this early game. His reads are still a bit blank at times, but they aren't token prods. It isn't hard to find a concrete reason for most of it.

I think these differences are important and work in Tony's favor.

~~~

Net positive for Tony. I welcome feedback. I grant that much of this is circumstantial and two different games cannot be compared with perfect congruency. We do our best.

inb4 JaY iS fAkInG eFfoRt FoR cReDiT

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:52 am Uhhhhhhhh but if Tony is town and I can't vote for you then who do I vote for

Epi or sprityo

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:53 am Idk man that's all pretty circumstantial

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:54 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:52 am Uhhhhhhhh but if Tony is town and I can't vote for you then who do I vote for

Epi or sprityo

Sounds like you could use a trustfall.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:24 am

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:51 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:57 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:14 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:00 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:44 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:39 pm

1) Creature is not low-hanging fruit if numerous players read him as civilian.

2) sprityo can be bad anyway, whatever. Consistency is meaningless

Plink plink plink

It’s a neat analogy, but applying it here is nonsense. My reads in this mess are the opposite of Plinko. I am all over the place

...I must still misunderstand the plinko thing bc I thought that's basically what it meant and what jack is pointing out

It means all over the place in an unnatural sounding way I suppose.

Like when Jay shifts his reads on me, you, Mac, Creature, etc suddenly.

I'd make the argument that that's a good thing.

Why are unnatural sounding reads a good thing?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:35 am I'm looking at TSP's play in Fallout (he was mafia and played well -- he was only lynched with behind-the-scenes Sloonei heroics) and comparing it to this one, exclusively for pre-Night 1 content.

Fallout

Persona 5

First look: general activity level by post rate.

Fallout - 28 posts in 48 hours - avg 0.59 posts per hour
Persona 5 - 99 posts in 78.5 hours - avg 1.26 posts per hour

His activity rate in this game is better than double that of Fallout. Cool.

Second look: response to suspicion/criticism

Fallout

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:44 am Nothing to go on?!? I said like half a dozen things.
Analysis in less words than Mac: a lot of hedging. Too many words for no real scum accusation.
A general tell especially early is that mafia makes town reads and that town makes scum reads within this kinda context and this seems clear of that but clear in the sense that every analysis was “this seems suspicious I wonder what I think about that will you please tell me what I should think about it”

This was a response to his teammate sabie in that game. It's dramatic (see: "?!?"). That's actually about the only half-relevant bit from that game's Day 1. Tony had a very clean game.

Persona 5
Not dramatic
Not dramatic
Could be called dramatic, but I don't really feel that
Not dramatic

It's a small sample size. For whatever it's worth though, I think it's to Tony's credit.

Third look: reads

Fallout
Throws out blank town read on Epi
Generic prod of Long Con with vote
Generic prod of BWT with vote
Descriptive but also non-concrete suspicion of teammate sabie
Hops on Epi's suspicion of sabie / vague gripe with LC
Synopsis: Tony's reads were empty throughout the early game here except when he was talking about his teammate.

Persona 5
Avoidant of nutella/JJJ spat, gut town on both
Orange on Drago and Jack for heaping on early suspicion of me
GTH scum on Epi
Said Rej willfully misinterpreted him
More complete reads list
Reiterated suspicion of nutella and Dragomir
Accuses nutella of parroting Mac's sprityo suspicion
GTH reads -- only change I note from previous reads is Rej (slight town to scum)
Synopsis: Tony casts a considerably wider net in this early game. His reads are still a bit blank at times, but they aren't token prods. It isn't hard to find a concrete reason for most of it.

I think these differences are important and work in Tony's favor.

~~~

Net positive for Tony. I welcome feedback. I grant that much of this is circumstantial and two different games cannot be compared with perfect congruency. We do our best.

inb4 JaY iS fAkInG eFfoRt FoR cReDiT

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:34 am This dude did not just go back and read two games to get a better understanding on one player. This is meta next level.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:13 pm While the crab succotash is a-going...

Mac, what's your take on Rej?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:22 pm Rej is basing his own opinions on people based on what other people say about them. He doesn't have a vote on the board. He's acting like a politician. Mafia. Lynch. Go.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:37 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:32 pm

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:32 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:22 pm Rej is basing his own opinions on people based on what other people say about them. He doesn't have a vote on the board. He's acting like a politician. Mafia. Lynch. Go.

That's how Rej plays the game.

Does it make him a civilian?

In a way, yes. I don't recall his scum play very well, only his town play and him being a politician fits the meta.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:53 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:48 am TonyStarkPrime, could you gimme some quick gun-to-head reads on everyone?

-Creature
-Dragomir
-Epignosis
-Jackofhearts2005
-JaggedJimmyJay
-Long Con
-MacDougall
-nutella
-Rej
-sprityo

Since you asked
town
scum
sort out
sort out
sort out
sort out
town unless with Nutella
scum
scum
town

I have no current interest in reading the top three sort outs and LC has no posts

“But that’s not the point of GTH”
“Well I gave you three scum so I guess town town town but I legitimately have very few thoughts”

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:59 am One issue I still have with @TonyStarkPrime is what seems to me like a lack of progression in his reads. I am not sure any of them have truly budged since their genesis. Rej is the closest thing to a shift, and that's only barely a thing.

Rej wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:54 am I will have some spare hour and some mins now left until I go a dinner with family.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:59 am

Rej wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:54 am I will have some spare hour and some mins now left until I go a dinner with family.

I’m not clear on precisely what makes Epignosis your suspect. You speak broadly of the game state and how a mafia Epi might apply in that game state. That doesn’t tell me much though about why “mafia Epi” is your focus instead of something else (like “town Epi” or “mafia JJJ”). Why is he specifically the one that you associate with this theoretical world of generating multiple possible wagons to work with? Why am I not?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:49 am

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:34 am This dude did not just go back and read two games to get a better understanding on one player. This is meta next level.

I'll take this opportunity to soapbox another Strategy Talk that nobody cares about. This is not relevant to reads in this game, so people can skip if they don't care.

Meta reads are valuable. They are one of many tools in the toolbelt of a civilian, and civilians are best advised to use the tools in their toolbelts. However, there are two primary ways in which meta reads typically appear. I think one of them is much preferable to the other.

1. People develop general perceptions of each other across multiple games. They make general reads on the basis of those general perceptions.

2. People draw direct comparisons between games with respect to some specific prompt, idea, or investigation. They make specific reads on the basis of those comparisons.

2 > 1

1 can work sometimes, sure, but I think it's usually crap. We (the general We) just aren't very good at developing accurate perceptions of each other, even with a great deal of experience. We pigeon hole one another into relatively tiny behavioral spaces, and anything outside that space then becomes cause for concern. It's wrong often enough that it may not be any better than rolling the dice. I believe 1's best applications are exploratory -- they can help to develop a read, but if they drive a final vote then it's probably a bad idea. 2 provides a much more precise notion of what a behavior may look like under some specific circumstance, and it is informed in a substantive, visible way.

Okay soapbox over.

Rej wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:46 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:53 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:48 am TonyStarkPrime, could you gimme some quick gun-to-head reads on everyone?

-Creature
-Dragomir
-Epignosis
-Jackofhearts2005
-JaggedJimmyJay
-Long Con
-MacDougall
-nutella
-Rej
-sprityo

Since you asked
town
scum
sort out
sort out
sort out
sort out
town unless with Nutella
scum
scum
town

I have no current interest in reading the top three sort outs and LC has no posts

“But that’s not the point of GTH”
“Well I gave you three scum so I guess town town town but I legitimately have very few thoughts”

why did you scumread me again? xD

Rej wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:18 am Epignosis also did not receive any civillian reads from my side, so the wagon on Mac is the most suspicious thing I have seen yet in this game lol.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:45 am

Rej wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:18 am Epignosis also did not receive any civillian reads from my side, so the wagon on Mac is the most suspicious thing I have seen yet in this game lol.

This wasn’t it but I found this too:
This doesn’t fit when the next piece of your narrative is Epi/Mac w/w

I admit I might also be conflating you with Drago somewhat

Rej wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:45 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:22 pm Rej is basing his own opinions on people based on what other people say about them. He doesn't have a vote on the board. He's acting like a politician. Mafia. Lynch. Go.

But I think my thoughts are original, so this is a conflict of interests my man.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:37 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:32 pm

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:32 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:22 pm Rej is basing his own opinions on people based on what other people say about them. He doesn't have a vote on the board. He's acting like a politician. Mafia. Lynch. Go.

That's how Rej plays the game.

Does it make him a civilian?

In a way, yes. I don't recall his scum play very well, only his town play and him being a politician fits the meta.

Again I am trying to be original, weren't I the first one here to go after Epignosis without pre conflict? xD but yeah as uninformed, I tend to interact with those that town/scum read me and observe those that are out of interaction.

With this and combined with my previous reads I feel like creature is town and not mislynch or lynch worthy. Guy tries to fiddle back into game.

Rej wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:28 am just woke up damn

so hunching back to the first wagon:

Mac got voted by Epignosis, followed by Sprityo and JJJ

Here is the tinfoil to it:
Scum wants to get Sprityo mislynched based on Macs agression towards them and the weak townreads they received.
Epignosis is the wolf who votes his wolfmate Mac in order to see if Sprityo or others go alongside it. This only works because Mac received some townreads from "towncore"-side.
JJJ makes the wagon stronger which allows Epig the freedome to have another wagon going on and increase the chances of mislynches.
Because ideally for scum they can get Sprityo mislynched for a weak D0 or keep their options open to mislynch JJJ or potentially me, Drago, TSP.
This works also if Mac is town, but it works better when Mac is Epigs wolf partner, because Mac voted Sprityo and thus they kept the option open for mislynching Sprityo.

So every mislynch candidate here receives townreads from me for now, based on the wagon analysis. JJJ can also be a proactive town. Epignosis has the most suspicious wagon, that profits scum the most in the small setup. Just some deep insights, combined with the point that Epignosis has a hard time receiving town reads from others.

let me catch up, but my vote will be on Epignosis.

I am still at page 13, but I think not much will change from my POV.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:02 pm I’d vote either Tony or Epi over Rej. Easily.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:02 pm I don’t know what Nutella is trying to say there.

I’d vote either Tony or Epi over Rej. Easily.

Why do like 6 people suspect Jay but I’m the only one voting him?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:58 pm Reads progressions for Creature

on Dragomir: no read found
on Epignosis: happens to be town with me again | I guess I don't care about you either - vote | May or may not be scum
on Jack: Questions Tony for joke Jack vote | Agrees with me that Jack is bottom two read | Anybody else worried about Jack?
on JJJ: I think JJJ is town | Mad at JJJ for changing read
on Long Con: Seems likely he's town
on MacDougall: He can be mafia, or he has amnesia | Reiterated same gripe | Actually Mac is town with a fetish for lynching inactives
on nutella: no read found
on Rej: Some kind of question about Rej
on sprityo: Good chance he's an inactive townie
on Tony: This is town or am I being overconfident | Doesn't remember anything towny from Tony | Tony is putting more effort to be town read

Static reads: Jack, JJJ, Long Con, sprityo
Moving reads: Epignosis, MacDougall, Tony
Non-reads: Dragomir, nutella, Rej

I won't say what this means yet, because I don't know yet. I'll wait until I have basis for comparison with the rest.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:02 pm I don’t know what Nutella is trying to say there.

I’d vote either Tony or Epi over Rej. Easily.

Why do like 6 people suspect Jay but I’m the only one voting him?

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:00 pm What's the point of making the analyze when you don't know what it means to you?

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:03 pm Wait what is this fresh bullshit from Jay now lol

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:03 pm

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:00 pm What's the point of making the analyze when you don't know what it means to you?

I will draw conclusions when I can see how players compare with one another. There's a purpose so just be patient.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:00 pm Rej's tinfoil is crazy and totally out there and I can't imagine he'd be thinking on that many levels if he's not town.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:04 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:03 pm

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:00 pm What's the point of making the analyze when you don't know what it means to you?

I will draw conclusions when I can see how players compare with one another. There's a purpose so just be patient.

G
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[VOTE: jaggedjimmyjay] aubergine

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:04 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:00 pm Rej's tinfoil is crazy and totally out there and I can't imagine he'd be thinking on that many levels if he's not town.

Evenstar

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:07 pm Jay why tf are you still trying to defend the idea that Rej is suspicious

Are you a scrap of used saran wrap bc you're transparent garbage.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:06 pm People spend the whole game telling me I am faking my effort

I try something new that requires effort

FAKE EFFORT

JJJ cannot believe it *pikachu meme*

Perfectly reasonable, sensible, not silly at all.