The Syndicate

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:01 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 12:33 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:41 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:38 pm Clearly there's a wolf in the Scotty, Bereft, Cape90, Jay realm, so which of these is it?

Scotty > Cape90 >>>>> Bereft

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

Full on OMGUS mode. I know I said Jay shouldn’t be D1’d but circumstances change and I feel like I’d be remiss if I missed this again

I don't like that Scotty went straight to voting Jay here. It's hard to see suspecting Jay because he sheeped people as a real thought.

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:40 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 5:02 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:59 am

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:58 am okay serious question, did u enjoy playing mafia today? or was it more grindy than anything

I mostly enjoyed it. Day 1 is my favorite day of the game.

i like the late game where it comes down to calculation instead of observation and judgement calls. i think that’s why i also prefer the mafia alignment, i feel like it’s grindy and calculation based where i don’t have to be so confused

d1 is nice big i post a lot to imitate/fake influence which i don't have or want really

blah

assuming i’m town what could i do better here fypov?

Assuming you’re town, who would be your top vote atm? In my read back, I don’t really know who you suspect except me (in a fake case)

Bereft wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:04 pm Scotty is having gripes with people for the sake of having gripes with people and if he's town here, it needs to stop ASAP, because I don't see myself townreading the slot if this keeps up.

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:40 pm

Bereft wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:04 pm Scotty is having gripes with people for the sake of having gripes with people and if he's town here, it needs to stop ASAP, because I don't see myself townreading the slot if this keeps up.

Hol up

What is having gripes?

I am firmly on the hot seat and need to parse those voting me as either manipulative or genuine.

Either way, there were 5 people voting me and all are dead wrong, so of course I was having gripes. And I will continue to have gripes, thank you very much. I might have so many gripes they’ll turn into grapes and I’ll eat them

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:45 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:40 pm

Bereft wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:04 pm Scotty is having gripes with people for the sake of having gripes with people and if he's town here, it needs to stop ASAP, because I don't see myself townreading the slot if this keeps up.

Hol up

What is having gripes?

I am firmly on the hot seat and need to parse those voting me as either manipulative or genuine.

Either way, there were 5 people voting me and all are dead wrong, so of course I was having gripes. And I will continue to have gripes, thank you very much. I might have so many gripes they’ll turn into grapes and I’ll eat them

I see now a wagon of 3, who was voting you before?

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:08 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:21 am wait fuck scotty might be town but i can’t explain this

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:22 am the reason is straight awful but it might be right

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:28 am actually ignore me

Here's a big reason why I don't agree with the robyn sus btw. They're playing unfiltered imo, and have sequences like this that are a lot easier to actually think of than to fake all the steps as a wolf.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:17 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:08 am

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 12:58 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 12:53 am

robyn wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:12 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:52 pm I’ve turned around on Cape- even tho he doesn’t have a lot of posts, what posts he has made are actual reads. Obviously I would like him to expand on them, but he’s making definitive reads

Thunal on the surface looks fine with their reads, if not making reads that come off as half baked. And no one wants a half baked pie, except maybe the stray cat that hangs out on my patio after dark. He’ll eat anything.
Scumlean

this post is actually disgusting, but i have to read cape's posts in the interim, either way blahhhh, early shade on cape who is the easiest mischop on this side of the mississippi is just not a good look for a player of scotty's stature and understanding

This post seems opportunistic.

Of all the people having suspicions on me, yours feels hollow

[VOTE: robyn] aubergine

of course, i only voted u because bereft did, i never suspected u until after reading ur iso

the only real reason was to see u under pressure, i'd never vote for a bad post and i know that i looked at your iso after i was already slightly conf bias

i was gonna unvote u a few posts ago because your read on cape and suspicion of jjj (before you tr him, but after too, mainly before) felt organic

anyway ur still town

Does not compute.

You are basically admitting you are sheeping bereft and are not coming to conclusions on your own.

@Bereft i don’t know your relationship with Robyn, but do you feel like you would be confident in determining if Robyn is pocketing you? Do you feel that this game, or no?

With both this and your sus on JJJ, why is sheeping scummy?

I don't think sheeping someone is scum indicative. My vote on you is partially sheep and I'm fine with that.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:22 pm Tbh, I'm not all that confident about Scotty being wolf and I keep going back and forth on him. If we kill Scotty and we're wrong, we just lost a top posting town voice in a game that really needs them.

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:48 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:08 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:21 am wait fuck scotty might be town but i can’t explain this

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:22 am the reason is straight awful but it might be right

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:28 am actually ignore me

Here's a big reason why I don't agree with the robyn sus btw. They're playing unfiltered imo, and have sequences like this that are a lot easier to actually think of than to fake all the steps as a wolf.

Eh. If we’re looking at filtered v unfiltered as an indicator of alignment, then sure. But I don’t think it’s that difficult to have a throughline as wolf

But of the posts you just quoted, Robyn, in summary, posted:
-vague town read for vague reasons
-secret reason
-nm, take it back because [reasons]

That series of posts literally said nothing. I still don’t know who Robyn suspects or why

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:44 pm @Scotty you had asked me about "deep Day 1 analysis". It's there, and you're past it in your catching up. What will you do with it?

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:51 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:48 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:08 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:21 am wait fuck scotty might be town but i can’t explain this

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:22 am the reason is straight awful but it might be right

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:28 am actually ignore me

Here's a big reason why I don't agree with the robyn sus btw. They're playing unfiltered imo, and have sequences like this that are a lot easier to actually think of than to fake all the steps as a wolf.

Eh. If we’re looking at filtered v unfiltered as an indicator of alignment, then sure. But I don’t think it’s that difficult to have a throughline as wolf

But of the posts you just quoted, Robyn, in summary, posted:
-vague town read for vague reasons
-secret reason
-nm, take it back because [reasons]

That series of posts literally said nothing. I still don’t know who Robyn suspects or why

nobody rn

read last post

also do you normally find abbie confidently town d1?

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:34 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 10:20 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 12:32 am

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:38 pm Someone tell me the cases for the lead wagons, I'm stuck in work hell and going to see the kids tomorrow so activity/reread time will be light today if at all.

Scotty/Thunal.

Clearly there's a wolf in the Scotty, Bereft, Cape90, Jay realm, so which of these is it?

I dunno, but I’m gonna be pissed if I get D1’d again by a bad Jay only for town to lose to him in endgame.

Understandable.

No thoughts on your voters while responding to this inquiry feels weird.

I’ve offered thoughts on each of my voters in my reread as I saw them vote me.

You cherry picking this particular post to shade me is weird

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:49 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:45 pm

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 5:25 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 12:00 am

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:56 pm I think your being cleared way to easily just for posting a lot and being loud

We can resolve JJJ later. I almost never feel like he’s a good D1 vote unless every other player is, like, Aristotle


Tho tbh playing with a bunch of philosophers sounds like a fucking nightmare so nm

Y'all can but I have a severe allergic reaction to just deciding not to solve people and let a possible wolf take control without question for any extensive period of town

On the flip side, if Jay IS town, we lose a significant voice. Did you SEE the flip charts and excel spreadsheets he just posted? That’s gold.

You might think I’m being sarcastic, and I’m actually not. If he’s bad, I think it will become clearer as the days go on.

I have some of the same feelings about you. We have so many inactives this game that if we kill a high posting player and we're wrong we're just doing mafia's work for them and leaving the people that don't care alive.

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:53 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:44 pm @Scotty you had asked me about "deep Day 1 analysis". It's there, and you're past it in your catching up. What will you do with it?

I saw it; and I stand by that it is impossible to evaluate/analyze in a D1 without info. It will be useful after a flip, however! The pairings/associative reads are putting the cart before the horse, which you yourself have said is questionable to do.

This is also not out of your wheelhouse in any alignment btw

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:43 pm VC
Michelle‬ 1. Voters: Thunal33
‪Scotty‬. 3. Voters: S~V~S, Cape90, ☆Princess Abigail☆
‪Seanzie‬. 2. Voters: JaggedJimmyJay, Bereft
‪S~V~S‬. 1 Voters: Scotty


@Thunal33 explain your vote for me please
@JaggedJimmyJay @Bereft why do you vote a zero poster?

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:50 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:22 pm Tbh, I'm not all that confident about Scotty being wolf and I keep going back and forth on him. If we kill Scotty and we're wrong, we just lost a top posting town voice in a game that really needs them.

Better me than *checks notes* 0-poster Seanzie.

Who JJJ and bereft are currently voting for some reason

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:48 pm I think JJJ sheeping someone else is scummy because of who JJJ is as a player.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:16 pm

Bereft wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:08 pm I would comment on Scotty unpairings if it weren't for the fact that I already resigned myself to there being only 2 mafia that have posted at all.

Understandable. I think we're kind of left with a reasoning dilemma. Let me work it out (for my own sake):

Spoiler: show

Premise 1: Scotty doesn't fit with most active players.
Premise 2: Scotty can fit with inactive players.
Conclusion: If Scotty is mafia, then he has inactive teammate(s).

If we accept the above argument, we can proceed to another:

Premise 1: If Scotty is mafia, then he has inactive teammates.
Premise 2: Scotty is mafia.
Conclusion: He has inactive teammate(s).

Valid argument. Modus ponens. Premise two requires killing Scotty and achieving a mafia flip.

Premise 1: If Scotty is mafia, then he has inactive teammate(s).
Premise 2: The inactives aren't mafia.
Conclusion: Scotty isn't mafia.

Valid argument. Modus tollens. Premise two requires flipping multiple inactives and getting town flips.

Both work, but the latter requires more chopping. Bleh. Of course neither argument matters if the flips don't align with the premises "2". Scotty flipping town is poop.

The content of that spoiler can probably be ignored, actually. I don't think my thinking was sound, because arguments can just be inverted to suit a desired strategy. But I typed all of it, so whatever here's a post.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:00 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:48 pm I think JJJ sheeping someone else is scummy because of who JJJ is as a player.

My entire shtick is encouraging teamwork and building a collective, transformative town effort. Of course I am willing to sheep people sometimes. Frankly, anyone that is unwilling to do that when they are town is playing a selfish and losing brand of Mafia.

Bereft wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:31 pm Yeah, and the only real posting wolf is Scotty, which is why, he's doing all of this.

Its a worldview to rule out, but, its the only worldview that I even have atm.

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:40 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:40 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 5:02 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:59 am

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:58 am okay serious question, did u enjoy playing mafia today? or was it more grindy than anything

I mostly enjoyed it. Day 1 is my favorite day of the game.

i like the late game where it comes down to calculation instead of observation and judgement calls. i think that’s why i also prefer the mafia alignment, i feel like it’s grindy and calculation based where i don’t have to be so confused

d1 is nice big i post a lot to imitate/fake influence which i don't have or want really

blah

assuming i’m town what could i do better here fypov?

Assuming you’re town, who would be your top vote atm? In my read back, I don’t really know who you suspect except me (in a fake case)

i don’t know, i’d kill a 0 poster like what jjj is doing and i’d actively choose to save you. it’s what i would do by simple game theory and i can send you an example if you want (although you convinced me against yeeting seanzie because he’d replace out in rondo’s game i believe, and i tried to save you there). i find it hard to make confident reads d1. so i will freely and actively sheep on d1. i do independently solve as you know but like with bereft and jjj here i feel outright redundant for the most part and all of the things i would do they’re beating me to. blah i’m finding it hard to play this game in a way that’s original and where my own voice is heard and seen. but i’m also relying on the fact people know i’m a very good wolf and can make up original in depth reads in hard gamestates on d1 to like “let me play like this”

also to your lying question, i lie frequently as town and scum, i understand why it looks wrong. but i don’t believe that blatantly adding excess pressure on a slot d1 is scummy if you mentally model for a player of my range

as i type this i essentially understand why you wolf read me completely. but the main issue with that is that i’m not limp scum, which is like the only thing that should give me space. i’m the opposite as most players here are familiar with and i’m surprised you like don’t see that? but i also can’t blame you, cause by an objective measurement i would suspect me rn if i was new to mafia

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:51 pm I will expand on my current Seanzie vote, because I understand it's the kind of thing that will elicit one of the following responses from the majority of players:

1) grumble grumble why vote for someone that hasn't said anything
2) wow Jay opportunistic easy target very sus
3) that provides no information, dumb dumb

The actual rationale:

-- POE is leading me to a situation where it seems likely the zero posters includes a mafia member. I have too many town reads (to varying degrees) otherwise.
-- My blind interaction analysis suggested that the active players broadly don't fit together very well except in highly specific (and thus, unlikely) combinations

So that's why I would vote for [zero poster].

Beyond that, I even chose a specific zero poster for a reason, though I acknowledge this is considerably less important and more "technical". It's entirely possible that none of Seanzie, ts account, and Rondo are aware of the game yet. That might be most likely. But if we assume for the sake of argument that any of them has seen their role card, then we must ask which one is most likely to say nothing as mafia?

Rondo? Hell no. He'll talk.
ts account? No clue, really.
Seanzie? Yes, he'd wait around. He actually did in Don't Starve (albeit to a lesser extent, he posted 11 hours after game start).

It's hard for something like this to feel inspired, I understand. But I wanted to explain why I voted, because there's more reasoning than one might assume.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:51 pm [VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

I'd rather go here. I have enough doubt on Scotty and I feel worse about Michelle than other low posters rn.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:14 pm How about this:

If Scotty is eliminated on Day 1, then everyone else needs to accept certain responsibility in the event of a town flip. This game is unwinnable for town if we don't have active players. That is not a criticism of anyone, because I know we have lives outside this thread. I totally get that. But it's a frank assessment of the situation and the game design.

If Scotty dies and flips town, everyone else has to cooperatively pick up the slack introduced by his loss. That's 116+ posts removed from the game (and all of the future posts that would have existed). Then there will be a Night 1 kill that might remove another highly active player. This thread would immediately be at risk of turning into a ghost town, and that is an L. Period. Town does not win that game.

Those are the stakes. I want us to understand them. If Scotty goes and flips mafia, fantastic. If he goes and flips town, every single one of us has to be prepared to fill the void.

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:45 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:40 pm

Bereft wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:04 pm Scotty is having gripes with people for the sake of having gripes with people and if he's town here, it needs to stop ASAP, because I don't see myself townreading the slot if this keeps up.

Hol up

What is having gripes?

I am firmly on the hot seat and need to parse those voting me as either manipulative or genuine.

Either way, there were 5 people voting me and all are dead wrong, so of course I was having gripes. And I will continue to have gripes, thank you very much. I might have so many gripes they’ll turn into grapes and I’ll eat them

I see now a wagon of 3, who was voting you before?

Bereft wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:46 pm You claim SVS is performative towards you, but I find you even more performative about not having a read on them because of it.

I could go on, but I'm not going to sit here while you're being actively unhelpful and the easiest explanation is just that you are wolf.

I don't believe you believe half the susses you're throwing out. Its overly uncharitable.


.

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:51 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:48 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:08 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:21 am wait fuck scotty might be town but i can’t explain this

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:22 am the reason is straight awful but it might be right

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:28 am actually ignore me

Here's a big reason why I don't agree with the robyn sus btw. They're playing unfiltered imo, and have sequences like this that are a lot easier to actually think of than to fake all the steps as a wolf.

Eh. If we’re looking at filtered v unfiltered as an indicator of alignment, then sure. But I don’t think it’s that difficult to have a throughline as wolf

But of the posts you just quoted, Robyn, in summary, posted:
-vague town read for vague reasons
-secret reason
-nm, take it back because [reasons]

That series of posts literally said nothing. I still don’t know who Robyn suspects or why

nobody rn

read last post

also do you normally find abbie confidently town d1?

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:22 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:45 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:40 pm

Bereft wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:04 pm Scotty is having gripes with people for the sake of having gripes with people and if he's town here, it needs to stop ASAP, because I don't see myself townreading the slot if this keeps up.

Hol up

What is having gripes?

I am firmly on the hot seat and need to parse those voting me as either manipulative or genuine.

Either way, there were 5 people voting me and all are dead wrong, so of course I was having gripes. And I will continue to have gripes, thank you very much. I might have so many gripes they’ll turn into grapes and I’ll eat them

I see now a wagon of 3, who was voting you before?

I had 5 at some point- if I recall, cape, Robyn, JJJ, thunal, bereft. Now add PA and SVS.

So almost half the players have voted me thus far this game

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:32 pm This game started in a moment when my free time doesn't really exist.
I would like to have a solid town read to sheep it.
Who should I sheep Jay?

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm Are the Seanzie votes strickly due to inactivity?

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:23 pm

Bereft wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:46 pm You claim SVS is performative towards you, but I find you even more performative about not having a read on them because of it.

I could go on, but I'm not going to sit here while you're being actively unhelpful and the easiest explanation is just that you are wolf.

I don't believe you believe half the susses you're throwing out. Its overly uncharitable.


.

Have we played a D1 together before? Honest question

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm Are the Seanzie votes strickly due to inactivity?

If so, why Seanzie over RondoDimBuckle and ts account also with 0 post....?

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm Are the Seanzie votes strickly due to inactivity?

If so, why Seanzie over RondoDimBuckle and ts account also with 0 post....?

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:36 pm Having read the most recent page, and gone through SVS posts.... they ping me the post so voting for them (SVS)... Scotty might be wolf, but I don't see it personally.

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:39 pm

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm Are the Seanzie votes strickly due to inactivity?

If so, why Seanzie over RondoDimBuckle and ts account also with 0 post....?

rondo's better at the game, is the least offensive answer i think

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:32 pm This game started in a moment when my free time doesn't really exist.
I would like to have a solid town read to sheep it.
Who should I sheep Jay?

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:40 pm

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:36 pm Having read the most recent page, and gone through SVS posts.... they ping me the post so voting for them (SVS)... Scotty might be wolf, but I don't see it personally.

can you elaborate why? also how much time do you have to play in the next 140 minutes

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:40 pm

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm Are the Seanzie votes strickly due to inactivity?

If so, why Seanzie over RondoDimBuckle and ts account also with 0 post....?

Explanation here

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:40 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:39 pm

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:38 pm Are the Seanzie votes strickly due to inactivity?

If so, why Seanzie over RondoDimBuckle and ts account also with 0 post....?

rondo's better at the game, is the least offensive answer i think

and what about ts account?