Space Invaders [END]

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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#901

Post by Hally »

Rej wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:17 am Hey guys I am stuck on page 8 for now. And i would place my vote on Mac/Drago slot for sure now.

GTH: never seen Mac out of place like this (skimmed over him)

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine




Meh pages also came faster than I am able to read at work xD you guys know the shit. My PoE will arrive later than usual. If details ping me, Ill tryna quote them.
yeah i don’t get good vibes from rej at all. he’s just sheeping the consensus on mac here but he doesn’t actually seem invested in the read at all
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#902

Post by Carotenoid »

Alright I did a cmd+f "Soneji" through the ISO's to see the interactions

tutuu
#636 Put Soneji in her alien group (8 persons total, but saying that protocultures and me should live)
#664 Defends her plan because Soneji called it TWTBAW. Could go either way so hmn

Not much. I still think tutuu is town.

TonyStarkPrime

#657 and #658 suspicion on Soneji (but it’s « kinda », « sort of »), puts Soneji at bottom of PoE at #660
He's still at the bottom of PoE at #731, says to shoot him or Rej at #770
Yes to Soneji pinged in scum chat in #794, #814 is a [hmmn emoji] to Soneji's defense
#834 feels on the verge of TMI knowing I’m town but I’m probably just paranoid

Alright maybe TonyStarkPrime can be town for the moment. I don’t see any reason for him to be so harsh on a teammate that's like a universal null.

Rej
Softish tackle at #680 and #682 scum question mark.

Could be paired with Soneji.

Protocultures

In #140 he says « Soneji – null to very very light town for having looked into strategies as could have done it for either alignment » which is ??????????????? because I don’t think there was anything relevant in Soneji’s first post. Go check it, at this point the only post he made is #38 and I don’t think it qualifies as « having looked into strategies »
Then on #629 it becomes « Soneji – one post, lets hope they post more or get mod killed. »
Which is. ?????? considering the first read on him. Slip? Like Soneji might have posted some strat’ in scum chat.
And then there’s the EoD defending Soneji but I kinda did it too so I don’t know what to think about that. #826 is pretty ???? It feels a bit like trying too much.

This is worrying, especially the #140 bit, I'd like to know what you think about it.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

#647 Opposition to Soneji’s strategy and follow up at 649.

I think it's more townish because their strategy are diametrically opposed but otherwise, not much.

Long Con
0 mention of Soneji.

Epignosis

#754 mentions being on Soneji’s « **** list » and asks for reason why he’s alien to anyone scum reading him.

Could go either way.

dunya
#36asks him if he has alien since she thought it wasn’t his first game and « No bad advice pls if you're a cheeky alien ;p » It would be fun if they're teammates but *shrug*
Puts him in lukewarm water and undecided in #66 and #162

Not much, could go either way.

Dyslexicon

#241 Puts Soneji in null (Soneji - No comment.)

Not much, could go either way.

MacDougall

Oh wow he posted a LOT more than I thought O_O

#467 quotes dunya « ;p » post thinking it's pro-town. Actually it's not really related to Soneji.
#507 Soneji is yellow in the readlist and #4 alien in the order
Prods Rej on #684 to ask if the question marks (Soneji and me) are summates
I wanna say it's not w/w/w.
#792 calls my strange timing with Soneji
Then there’s some posts where he seems okay with shooting Soneji, but he was like next on the list so it could be w/w.

I feel like he could be w/w with Soneji but not w/w/w with Soneji and Rej. So I feel conflicted.

Alison
#359 calls Soneji null

IN SUMMARY:
  • Soneji was pretty much a null/no reaction for everyone, except to TonyStarkPrime and to a certain extent MacDougall (yellow, but in the bottom 4) and Rej (fifth scum of the list with a ?)
  • The only person that has never mentionned Soneji at all is Long Con.
  • protocultures, dunya, Dyslexicon & Alison have clearly stated a null read on him
  • I think Rej-MacDougall-Soneji is not w/w/w, Rej-Soneji and MacDougall-Soneji both having the potential of being w/w
  • NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME gets a tiny +1 v for the mech talk opposition with Soneji
  • I think that the most worrying interaction with Soneji is protocultures.
CONCLUSION
why did i do that it took so long ugh
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#903

Post by Long Con »

To be fair, the man only had 9 posts, and I wasn't the most prolific poster either.
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#904

Post by Long Con »

9 posts! You got him off 9 posts, nutella. That's wild.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#905

Post by Hally »

protocultures wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:05 am Alright, so day 0 finished, Dragonmir got subbed out, boss music came on and MacDougal entered the game. I still have not have anyone confirm to me whether we get flips after town laser kills.
Heres where I am at in the game.

So since Dragonmir is out, I isoed their posts for background on Mac. Feels kinda null to me so I am okay giving Mac a clean slate to start the game. I feel there were some people who hard wanted to laser Dragomir – it felt kinda bandwagon to me and I feel there are better targets.

Alison – don’t know what to make of the thinking bunkers had one shot issue. Their explanation seems meh, other than this, their posts make me think they are town. Putting on my tin foil hat, instead of looking through Dyslexicons games to identify their meta, what if they are in alien chat and dyslexicon fed them the games/outcomes. Not an idea that I am strongly pushing for now, but something for postgame just in case I am right. [since i started writing, more posts have come up - I want to push this possivility much more now]

Bimbo – has zero posts. Not sure I understand why Dragonmir was subbed out instead of Bimbo. Do we not punish lurker/afk players at the syndicate? Probably not worth a laser at this point, and hopefully they get modkilled or come in with some posts later on.

Carotenoid – seems a bit null to town in posts. I give them hard town cred for finding error in my math to push off my mixed save strategy. Nutella had semi bought into the mixed save strat earlier in the day, and Caro identified it as being bad. Doesn’t have to do this as an alien at all.

Dyslexicon – literally their first 6 posts are memes which made me think they are aliens or probably good to be laser shot regardless of alignment. Trying to put it down to day 0 memes and re-evaluate on them. Rest of posts are kinda null to me. I feel like they might be intentionally trying to look not massively town and aim for the middle of the pack between town and alien to avoid getting night KP on them.

Dunya – still confuses me. I want to lean their posts kinda town BUT they townread epi and want to murdertrain Dargonmir/Macdougal which makes me deduct town points. A lot of them. Put them in the cant read and sort later if I need to pile.

Epignosis – I still want to burn them with fire. They also want to kill DragonDougal. So more petrol here please. Thinks LC is town.

LongCon – Probably still my number 2 alien. Some posts make me want to them to live a bit longer for me to re-evaluate on them potentially.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME – seems to be being universally townread. I think their later post quality has dropped significantly. Just posting to stay active. I stick them in the null category.

Rej – Don’t have much on them. No suggestions for solving, just some reads on players here and there.

Soneji – one post, lets hope they post more or get mod killed.

TonyStarkPrime – up there with my towniest of towns, but seems to also think Epi is town. If I turn out wrong on Epi, gonna have to re-evaluate everything again which would be a massive pain. Could just be a bad read on their part. Still one of my top towns.

Tutuu – also being universally townread. Am okay with that.

MacDougal – I just don’t think they joined the game if they were mafia where they are in too many games already. Don’t think we should attach massive reads from Dragonmir onto Macdougal since it was only 1 day and we should be able to independently read macdougal in future days.
i like this reads list less than the first one you gave

a few things:
1) why do you scum read epi so much? have you said and i just missed it?
2) it seems like youre just taking it for granted epi is maf and pre-flipping him? and also taking for granted that mac is town even though you don’t really read him here? i can tell you since i subbed in too that i wasn’t told what alignment i’d be before i agreed. so mac wouldnt know what his role was beforehand

other than that ig i dont have an issue with these
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#906

Post by Carotenoid »

Long Con wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:23 pm To be fair, the man only had 9 posts, and I wasn't the most prolific poster either.
What's the context of this post? Why do you feel the need to talk about you?
Long Con wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:23 pm 9 posts! You got him off 9 posts, nutella. That's wild.
This feels bootlicker.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#907

Post by Hally »

Soneji wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:20 pm Got through d1 read skimming most things while staving off fatigue. Mac seems to be lolcatting and is therefore in anti-spew so whatever he says should be taken with a bag of salt. The other main thing this day is Epi vs Alison, which has progressions on both sides that suggest it's not bussing, so they'd certainly make a solid pair to put onto nutella n1.

Now I sleep :offtobed:
mac/soneji probably not s/s? unless soneji just thought mac was caught and had to be bussed

something this made me think of is that i think maf will be way more likely to hard distance/bus in this setup if nut is scum reading one of them. because it’s not like normal mechanics where there’s votes and counterwagons and everything. scum cant save their teammates through swaying votes. if nut wants scum dead she will shoot them and there’s nothing they can do. so i think if nut has already indicated a strong scum read on someone who is scum and seems likely to shoot them, the scum team may just cut their loses and try to look as good off the flip as possible. idk if that’s what’s happening here re: soneji/mac specifically but its a dynamic that needs to be considered in this setup in general
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#908

Post by Hally »

TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:51 pm I owe Carotte 5-6 names.


the >rand alien section:

Mac
Alison
Long Con
Carotte
Rej
Soneji

in roughly that order.
oh wow, ok. so tony was the first to scum read soneji? and this was before nut gave a read on soneji. so i think this is very unlikely to be a bus
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#909

Post by Long Con »

Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:56 pm
Long Con wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:23 pm To be fair, the man only had 9 posts, and I wasn't the most prolific poster either.
What's the context of this post? Why do you feel the need to talk about you?
The context:
Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:20 pm Long Con
0 mention of Soneji.
...
Long Con wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:23 pm 9 posts! You got him off 9 posts, nutella. That's wild.
This feels bootlicker.
Not really. I've known nutella for over a decade. I feel comfortable speaking to her like that.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#910

Post by Carotenoid »

Hally wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:57 pm
Soneji wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:20 pm Got through d1 read skimming most things while staving off fatigue. Mac seems to be lolcatting and is therefore in anti-spew so whatever he says should be taken with a bag of salt. The other main thing this day is Epi vs Alison, which has progressions on both sides that suggest it's not bussing, so they'd certainly make a solid pair to put onto nutella n1.

Now I sleep :offtobed:
mac/soneji probably not s/s? unless soneji just thought mac was caught and had to be bussed

something this made me think of is that i think maf will be way more likely to hard distance/bus in this setup if nut is scum reading one of them. because it’s not like normal mechanics where there’s votes and counterwagons and everything. scum cant save their teammates through swaying votes. if nut wants scum dead she will shoot them and there’s nothing they can do. so i think if nut has already indicated a strong scum read on someone who is scum and seems likely to shoot them, the scum team may just cut their loses and try to look as good off the flip as possible. idk if that’s what’s happening here re: soneji/mac specifically but its a dynamic that needs to be considered in this setup in general
Well maybe it wasn't actually the case, but my feeling of the thread at this time was that Dragomir was widely/unanimously scumread when MacDougall entered the thread and Alison's slip happened around the same time. nutella mentionned lasering MacDougall iirc so it's quite possible they tried to distance. The other person that strongly insists that MacDougall is lolcatting and not really reevaluting is Alison so it might fit.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#911

Post by Hally »

Rej wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:21 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:21 am [VOTE: Rej] aubergine

Not towny Rej. Where is my towny Rej? Not here, cause Rej is not town.
that vote is wasted on my slot, rather vote Mac or your new fresh suspect Alison, also I don't feel threatened, I am still catching up

you always keep on saying "not towny" "not towny"...can you go into depth? if you are so sure you can already give me a micro/macro read or even two
idk if i’m just tunneling atp but rej is seems very scummy to me. i don’t like how he deflects with “your vote is wasted, why dont you vote mac or allison.” and also the “i dont feel threatened” pings me a lot. why does he feel the need to say that? its like he’s nervous he will show that he actually is scared of dizzy. and like it seems to be tmi-ing dizzy town? dizzy being a threat to him is a mindset that makes sense if the interaction is t/s. like dizzy is the town and rej is the scum who feels threatened by dizzy’s scum read so he’s saying he’s not threatened. idk if this makes sense at all. but this reply feels like scum that is getting correctly sussed by town and doesnt know what to say
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#912

Post by Carotenoid »

Long Con wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:08 am
Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:56 pm
Long Con wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:23 pm To be fair, the man only had 9 posts, and I wasn't the most prolific poster either.
What's the context of this post? Why do you feel the need to talk about you?
The context:
Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:20 pm Long Con
0 mention of Soneji.
...
Long Con wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:23 pm 9 posts! You got him off 9 posts, nutella. That's wild.
This feels bootlicker.
Not really. I've known nutella for over a decade. I feel comfortable speaking to her like that.
Oh sorry, I didn't realize you were responding to my post.
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#913

Post by Long Con »

Lazy of me, sorry.
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#914

Post by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME »

[mention]nutella[/mention] if you haven’t already, you should be dictating our protection plan relatively soonish.

I recommend three in the POE ordered to protect you, nobody else uses a protect.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#915

Post by Hally »

Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:24 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:34 pm
Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:37 am
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TonyStarkPrime

#69 #71 is his entrance to the thread. It's.. weird but okay, townread Epignosis.

Then comes a lot of mechanic talk. He proposes that bottom of POE protect, which is okay.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:43 am maybe just aliens+1 bottom names in the poe protects
Not sure what it means but okéééé?

And then this happens:
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:43 am That's all of the necessary mechanics talk today.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:43 am Three people don't like space movies. These should make up the bottom of the poe.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:44 am update: two of them aren't in the game
It's a bit really underwhelming. And it's not even funny.
20 minutes later on #128, mechanic talk is back. No read on anyone, if we're kind we can give #149 as a slight scum read on protocultures, but literally the minute after he "scans" the math for a townread so not sure it's worth anything. A few hours pass.

On #246 he reacts to my scumread on Epignosis saying it's town, no read on tutuu and ignoring the Long Con part. Explanation on #261 that is not really convincing and never answers me about #280 :(

A bit later this happens:
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:12 pm I also think this game is sorting very easily and day 1 hasn't started yet which is usually a bad sign
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:27 pm usually a bad sign = usually I'm wrong about how things are going. but I'd be happy to be right
The thing is. TonyStarkPrime didn't have any reads yet? So that means nothing. Not good.
Answers my « is this a "prepare tinfoil theory" post? » of #301 in #304 but then never answer my #307 when I question him about his reads of the moment. :( Second ignored question. Not good.

A few hours pass again, #536 seems a tad agressive for ?? reason.
And then we go from "mac wolf" to "unfortunately this is kinda where my head is at as well" to "I don't think drago was necessarily a wolf. drago is just drago". His position is not clear despite having a couple of consecutive messages on the same slot.

#559 suspects dunya
but in a really... Nice way? As in trying to suspect someone without it being noticed? The thing I hate about this post is that it ends with "Along these lines I think 5-6 names form an immediately available poe." But no names. And no follow-up. Not good.

#596 can be read as "suspecting Alison without suspecting Alison" which is not good too.

--

IN SUMMARY:
  • He has not answered two questions that were adresse to him about his reads;
  • For someone who said "enough mech talk", he has a really underwhelming number of reads;
  • His only consistent read is Epignosis town and is based on a "mindset thing";
  • All his other reads/positions are really meh/dodgy;
  • There's a recurring scheme of pretending to think about the reads he has but that no one else know and that never translate in concrete posts/actions in the thread.
CONCLUSION:
Yeah TonyStarkPrime might definitely be an alien.
i mean omgus but "might definitely be an alien" is going to get grammar scumread pretty fast. whatever. I'll check on missed questions
Why grammar scumread? That's the only reaction you have regarding my post?
TonyStarkPrime about Soneji
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TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:37 pm soneji kinda wolf got a funny thing
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:42 pm
Soneji wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:57 am
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TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:08 am
nutella wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:38 pm
Epignosis wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:32 pm
Epignosis wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:19 pm Also, I'm a bunker and I'm always going to be defending nutella. Don't waste your defense on me.
That should say "Don't waste your defense on nutella."
On the multikill nights more people need to protect me though right?

I only vaguely understand the setup....
and if Epi's an alien...
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:11 am
Epignosis wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:48 pm
dunya wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:44 pm
nutella wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:38 pm

On the multikill nights more people need to protect me though right?

I only vaguely understand the setup....
2 people. You'll be fine. I promise. Epi and dun got ur back gurl
This is over is an alien laser shoots nutella. That's it.

Bunkers have limited protections. After I'm spent, someone else will need to carry on in my stead (or if I get killed).

This is about setting up a network of protections so that it's clear who failed and is therefore mafia.
regardless, I think this is town
Sow doubt on Epi, then swiftly call him town anyways:hmm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:13 am
dunya wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:54 pm We publicly make a list of who protects who. When someone dies we know who lied :p
okay, but I'm not going through with this unless there are at least 2 people defending Nutella and possibly 3

@linki oh yeah and bunker protects are limited. It might be best to save them until endgame and just force the poe to protect Nutella each day
The PoE are almost always going to be the ones you least want protecting the Laser.


As for the strat I think is best : I'm good with the bottom four PoE strat for n1 only, otherwise think top 3 towncore should protect nutella on odd nights, top 4 towncore on even nights. Could mix in some of the middle of the pack to preserve some of the top towncores protects, best to adjust that as we go. On that first night, the middling PoE should use their protects on the towncore. On subsequent nights the bottom of the PoE should be protecting the towncore, with probably a double up on the very top of the towncore. Force aliens to shoot into bottom or middling Poe, or have to use two kills on even nights to kill one towncore and not even the best SPK they could get.

For simplicities sake, will lay out the first three nights :

N1 : Bottom four of the PoE assigned to protect nutella, while the next three lowest PoE protect the top 3 towncore.

N2 : Top three towncore+one middling PoE protect nutella, while the bottom three to four in the PoE protect the top 3 towncore. If four double up on the very top towncore SPK.

N3 : Top two towncore+one middling PoE protect nutella, bottom three PoE protects top three towncore.

With this we can shuffle enough to have top towncore with protects left up until late. It's a small game, so I think people are overestimating how conservative we need to be with protects. By the end of n4, there can be up to 10 deaths if the aliens succeed on both their double kills. Then n5 being an odd night needs only one towncore with a protect left alive to secure nutella's safety.


Now onto d1.
:ponder:

I also sort of scumread the strategy given. day 1 it's just protoculture's though basically? fine I guess
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:51 pm I owe Carotte 5-6 names.


the >rand alien section:

Mac
Alison
Long Con
Carotte
Rej
Soneji

in roughly that order.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:53 pm top to bottom least likely to most likely. Alison/Carotte probably not w/w, Alison/Mac probably not w/w. For people who think Epi is a wolf, Alison/Epi probably not w/w. maybe Alison is just town. I'll check up, see if I can cross off any other pairings
How do you go from "kinda wolf got a funny thing", "sort of scumread the strategy given" to putting Soneji as your most likely alien? What happened to dunya?
this is not the most amazing post in light of soneji’s flip but i almost wonder if it’s too scummy for scum to actually post about their teammate. not a great look though. i have been liking carotte’s posts up to this point though, so hrm
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#916

Post by Hally »

Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:44 pm @tutuu I don't think that makes Alison town. By spending a heckload of time on the Dyslexicon case, she can pretend that she did a ton of scumhunting when in reality it's *one* read on *one* person. So not that great. I think Aliens are just more likely to do that, because town value their time/efficiency. Alison reads were Dyslexicon-Epignosis-Dragomir-? (iirc) at the beginning and now she townreads Dyslexicon-Epignosis. She also scumread MacDougall on not much things (especially considering the giant case she made on Dyslexicon and the interactions with Epignosis. For MacDougall it was basically "you're scum and lolcatting" and that's itttt) There wasn't really other reads. So hmn.

Also I feel like after her slip and MacDougall being welcomed by the thread with "sorry you're in a maf spot", the alien strategy was create chaos to make them forget and distance. I don't remember who said that Alison was like more harsh on MacDougall and that it might be w/w but +1 to that.

Also, funnily enough, who just said that MacDougall/Alison wasn't w/w?
TonyStarkPrime!
hmmmn
quoting this because it made me think, did allison ever state a scum read on drago before mac subbed in? or did she jump straight to “mac is outted scum lolcatting.” i think the latter iirc? if so that’s kind of scummy tbh because its just sheeping the consensus scum read on mac’s slot and trying to bury him despite not actually having had a scum read on the slot pre-mac
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#917

Post by Hally »

Hally wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:20 am
Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:24 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:34 pm
Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:37 am
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TonyStarkPrime

#69 #71 is his entrance to the thread. It's.. weird but okay, townread Epignosis.

Then comes a lot of mechanic talk. He proposes that bottom of POE protect, which is okay.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:43 am maybe just aliens+1 bottom names in the poe protects
Not sure what it means but okéééé?

And then this happens:
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:43 am That's all of the necessary mechanics talk today.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:43 am Three people don't like space movies. These should make up the bottom of the poe.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:44 am update: two of them aren't in the game
It's a bit really underwhelming. And it's not even funny.
20 minutes later on #128, mechanic talk is back. No read on anyone, if we're kind we can give #149 as a slight scum read on protocultures, but literally the minute after he "scans" the math for a townread so not sure it's worth anything. A few hours pass.

On #246 he reacts to my scumread on Epignosis saying it's town, no read on tutuu and ignoring the Long Con part. Explanation on #261 that is not really convincing and never answers me about #280 :(

A bit later this happens:
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:12 pm I also think this game is sorting very easily and day 1 hasn't started yet which is usually a bad sign
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:27 pm usually a bad sign = usually I'm wrong about how things are going. but I'd be happy to be right
The thing is. TonyStarkPrime didn't have any reads yet? So that means nothing. Not good.
Answers my « is this a "prepare tinfoil theory" post? » of #301 in #304 but then never answer my #307 when I question him about his reads of the moment. :( Second ignored question. Not good.

A few hours pass again, #536 seems a tad agressive for ?? reason.
And then we go from "mac wolf" to "unfortunately this is kinda where my head is at as well" to "I don't think drago was necessarily a wolf. drago is just drago". His position is not clear despite having a couple of consecutive messages on the same slot.

#559 suspects dunya
but in a really... Nice way? As in trying to suspect someone without it being noticed? The thing I hate about this post is that it ends with "Along these lines I think 5-6 names form an immediately available poe." But no names. And no follow-up. Not good.

#596 can be read as "suspecting Alison without suspecting Alison" which is not good too.

--

IN SUMMARY:
  • He has not answered two questions that were adresse to him about his reads;
  • For someone who said "enough mech talk", he has a really underwhelming number of reads;
  • His only consistent read is Epignosis town and is based on a "mindset thing";
  • All his other reads/positions are really meh/dodgy;
  • There's a recurring scheme of pretending to think about the reads he has but that no one else know and that never translate in concrete posts/actions in the thread.
CONCLUSION:
Yeah TonyStarkPrime might definitely be an alien.
i mean omgus but "might definitely be an alien" is going to get grammar scumread pretty fast. whatever. I'll check on missed questions
Why grammar scumread? That's the only reaction you have regarding my post?
TonyStarkPrime about Soneji
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TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:37 pm soneji kinda wolf got a funny thing
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Soneji wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:57 am
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TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:08 am
nutella wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:38 pm
Epignosis wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:32 pm

That should say "Don't waste your defense on nutella."
On the multikill nights more people need to protect me though right?

I only vaguely understand the setup....
and if Epi's an alien...
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:11 am
Epignosis wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:48 pm
dunya wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:44 pm

2 people. You'll be fine. I promise. Epi and dun got ur back gurl
This is over is an alien laser shoots nutella. That's it.

Bunkers have limited protections. After I'm spent, someone else will need to carry on in my stead (or if I get killed).

This is about setting up a network of protections so that it's clear who failed and is therefore mafia.
regardless, I think this is town
Sow doubt on Epi, then swiftly call him town anyways:hmm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:13 am
dunya wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:54 pm We publicly make a list of who protects who. When someone dies we know who lied :p
okay, but I'm not going through with this unless there are at least 2 people defending Nutella and possibly 3

@linki oh yeah and bunker protects are limited. It might be best to save them until endgame and just force the poe to protect Nutella each day
The PoE are almost always going to be the ones you least want protecting the Laser.


As for the strat I think is best : I'm good with the bottom four PoE strat for n1 only, otherwise think top 3 towncore should protect nutella on odd nights, top 4 towncore on even nights. Could mix in some of the middle of the pack to preserve some of the top towncores protects, best to adjust that as we go. On that first night, the middling PoE should use their protects on the towncore. On subsequent nights the bottom of the PoE should be protecting the towncore, with probably a double up on the very top of the towncore. Force aliens to shoot into bottom or middling Poe, or have to use two kills on even nights to kill one towncore and not even the best SPK they could get.

For simplicities sake, will lay out the first three nights :

N1 : Bottom four of the PoE assigned to protect nutella, while the next three lowest PoE protect the top 3 towncore.

N2 : Top three towncore+one middling PoE protect nutella, while the bottom three to four in the PoE protect the top 3 towncore. If four double up on the very top towncore SPK.

N3 : Top two towncore+one middling PoE protect nutella, bottom three PoE protects top three towncore.

With this we can shuffle enough to have top towncore with protects left up until late. It's a small game, so I think people are overestimating how conservative we need to be with protects. By the end of n4, there can be up to 10 deaths if the aliens succeed on both their double kills. Then n5 being an odd night needs only one towncore with a protect left alive to secure nutella's safety.


Now onto d1.
:ponder:

I also sort of scumread the strategy given. day 1 it's just protoculture's though basically? fine I guess
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:51 pm I owe Carotte 5-6 names.


the >rand alien section:

Mac
Alison
Long Con
Carotte
Rej
Soneji

in roughly that order.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:53 pm top to bottom least likely to most likely. Alison/Carotte probably not w/w, Alison/Mac probably not w/w. For people who think Epi is a wolf, Alison/Epi probably not w/w. maybe Alison is just town. I'll check up, see if I can cross off any other pairings
How do you go from "kinda wolf got a funny thing", "sort of scumread the strategy given" to putting Soneji as your most likely alien? What happened to dunya?
this is not the most amazing post in light of soneji’s flip but i almost wonder if it’s too scummy for scum to actually post about their teammate. not a great look though. i have been liking carotte’s posts up to this point though, so hrm
wanna amend this because it isn’t the most charitable take on carotte’s post. she had already given a hard scum read on tony before tony ever sussed soneji. so if carotte is town and already scum read tony it’s understandable for her to be skeptical of tony’s reads. it could just be a townie confbiasing her scum read of tony into being skeptical of his soneji read
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#918

Post by Hally »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:52 pm
Rej wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:46 pm My PoE is:

Scum:
Mac
Dunya
NANOOK
Dizzy
Soneji(?)

Town:
TSP
Epi
proto
Alison
Carot(?)

I feel sure on these for now, I will go to sleep now, maybe I am here for more 15 mins or so, I haven't sorted the other 3 btw
Do the question marks denote who your scum teammates are?
oooo savage. i mindmeld because rej tunnel :p if rej is scum mac is town because i doubt scum!mac is gonna link two of his teammates together like this unless he thought he was caught atp and was in anti-spew. but i dont really think mac is scum anyway so
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#919

Post by Hally »

but i shouldnt tunnel. i’m trying to break that habit. i will hold my horses :p
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#920

Post by Hally »

but i shouldnt tunnel. i’m trying to break that habit. i will hold my horses :p
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#921

Post by Hally »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:15 pm @bimbo was replaced by @Hally
i was a bimbo apparently :p
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#922

Post by nutella »

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:20 am @nutella if you haven’t already, you should be dictating our protection plan relatively soonish.

I recommend three in the POE ordered to protect you, nobody else uses a protect.
ugh stop demanding I make the decisions I legit have no idea what the best strat is here


how about you/dunya/carot

rej is top suspect, not taking a risk there. I'd say those three names are very unlikely to all be alien so....?
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#923

Post by Hally »

TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:16 pm are you an alien yes or no
in some sense yes but not in this game :p
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#924

Post by Long Con »

Don't forget Epi is protecting you, if he's town.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#925

Post by Hally »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:18 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:16 pm are you an alien yes or no
Yesno Hally is townscum
mac has solved me everyone go home
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#926

Post by Hally »

nutella wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:55 pm tsp/carot/rej/soneji are all big question marks for me atm


still most likely shooting dragomac
why tsp and carotte? i actually like them. but i also may have too many town reads maybe. dizzy and i are alike in this way :p

also since you have meta on mac, is he in his scum range? i don’t find him scummy but i’ve never played with him before so idk

idk why im asking you questions when you’re the confirmed town judge jury and executioner but i’m trying to pretend like my reads also matter so i can have a reason to play :p
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#927

Post by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME »

nutella wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:49 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:20 am @nutella if you haven’t already, you should be dictating our protection plan relatively soonish.

I recommend three in the POE ordered to protect you, nobody else uses a protect.
ugh stop demanding I make the decisions I legit have no idea what the best strat is here


how about you/dunya/carot

rej is top suspect, not taking a risk there. I'd say those three names are very unlikely to all be alien so....?
Sorry that’s the burden of being confirmed town :p

Is your POE me/dunya/carot/Rej or are you just going for names that aren’t aligned?
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#928

Post by Hally »

TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:58 pm
Hally wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:41 pm okay brb im gonna read the game
hold on I’ve seen this before
reading the game is a scum tell for me it’s true

(not really, but this made me lol)
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#929

Post by nutella »

Hally wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:57 am
nutella wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:55 pm tsp/carot/rej/soneji are all big question marks for me atm


still most likely shooting dragomac
why tsp and carotte? i actually like them. but i also may have too many town reads maybe. dizzy and i are alike in this way :p

also since you have meta on mac, is he in his scum range? i don’t find him scummy but i’ve never played with him before so idk

idk why im asking you questions when you’re the confirmed town judge jury and executioner but i’m trying to pretend like my reads also matter so i can have a reason to play :p
I think tsp is pretty towny now from soneji stuff, but at the time of that post he was just kinda weird tbh lol
Carotte I'm still undecided on, leaning a little better than earlier I guess
Mac I feel is town now
And your reads matter to me <3
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#930

Post by nutella »

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:58 am
nutella wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:49 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:20 am @nutella if you haven’t already, you should be dictating our protection plan relatively soonish.

I recommend three in the POE ordered to protect you, nobody else uses a protect.
ugh stop demanding I make the decisions I legit have no idea what the best strat is here


how about you/dunya/carot

rej is top suspect, not taking a risk there. I'd say those three names are very unlikely to all be alien so....?
Sorry that’s the burden of being confirmed town :p

Is your POE me/dunya/carot/Rej or are you just going for names that aren’t aligned?
Both basically
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#931

Post by Hally »

nutella wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:18 pm I don't understand the scumreads on LC. And I think rej's recent posts lean town. :shrug:
i haven’t seen LC like... do anything though? he hasn’t solved yet as far as i can see. but i saw he said he is a slow starter so maybe this is normal for him? also what’s townish about rej? also why do i insist on asking you these questions? the world may never know
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#932

Post by nutella »

Alison could also be in there tbh? Maaaaybe proto but idk
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#933

Post by nutella »

Hally wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:03 am
nutella wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:18 pm I don't understand the scumreads on LC. And I think rej's recent posts lean town. :shrug:
i haven’t seen LC like... do anything though? he hasn’t solved yet as far as i can see. but i saw he said he is a slow starter so maybe this is normal for him? also what’s townish about rej? also why do i insist on asking you these questions? the world may never know
Yeah I feel like I gave LC a bit too much early credit based on a pure tone/gut read and haven't been seriously evaluating him or holding him to enough of a standard so I need to drop that townread to make him do stuff.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#934

Post by Hally »

TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:21 pm
nutella wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:18 pm I don't understand the scumreads on LC. And I think rej's recent posts lean town. :shrug:
Checked Rej and agree. I'll read LC again. Don't remember much, but I thought some of the early mechanics interactions were off iirc.
why? is there something im missing with rej?
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#935

Post by nutella »

I don't really recall which Rej posts I thought were more towny or why. I think he looks quite bad now with the soneji flip, so to be fair I should look back into why I was feeling better about him for a bit because all the posts of his that have been quoted recently are scummy af.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#936

Post by nutella »

Rej wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:45 am
Alison wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:36 am
Rej wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:32 am
Dyslexicon wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:29 am
Rej wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:28 am I feel this one sounds like desperate try to shade Epi.
My D1 reads on Epi were often on point and my gut tells me Epi is town and that Mac!alien throws a desperate shade.
Hi, Rej. Are you scum? Yes/no. I feel yes, but you can talk me into a no. :noble:
I am not scum. I am the towniest towny and I am optimistic.
What are you optimistic about?
Oh btw, maybe you should know that Dragomir and me come from the same forum. Sometimes we read each other correct D1, even if one of us scum and the other is town.
I wouldnt be optimistic if someone else would be the lynchee. Lmao.
Hmmmmmmm. This exchange at the time read to me like Rej had a genuine meta suspicion on Drago, but now that I think that slot is more likely town I'm wondering if Rej was simply happy to let a miselim happen.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#937

Post by nutella »

Rej wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:21 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:21 am [VOTE: Rej] aubergine

Not towny Rej. Where is my towny Rej? Not here, cause Rej is not town.
that vote is wasted on my slot, rather vote Mac or your new fresh suspect Alison, also I don't feel threatened, I am still catching up

you always keep on saying "not towny" "not towny"...can you go into depth? if you are so sure you can already give me a micro/macro read or even two
This is just.... such a scummy post oof
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#938

Post by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME »

nutella wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:03 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:58 am
nutella wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:49 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:20 am @nutella if you haven’t already, you should be dictating our protection plan relatively soonish.

I recommend three in the POE ordered to protect you, nobody else uses a protect.
ugh stop demanding I make the decisions I legit have no idea what the best strat is here


how about you/dunya/carot

rej is top suspect, not taking a risk there. I'd say those three names are very unlikely to all be alien so....?
Sorry that’s the burden of being confirmed town :p

Is your POE me/dunya/carot/Rej or are you just going for names that aren’t aligned?
Both basically
You make me sad but ok!
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#939

Post by nutella »

Rej wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:27 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:32 am
MacDougall wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:29 am im just looking forward to this incoming proto bomb
There is much to look forward to.

Mac, why don't you vote Rej with me? I have irrefutable evidence that he is scum. :grin:
a liiiiiie, and why you suddenly want a supposed scum to vote together with you?
Yuuck nooope
Rej wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:39 pm
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Soneji wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:57 am People posting too much for a d0 :sigh:
Epignosis wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:18 pm I don't see any need to tell nutella what to do. I would rather nutella just kill someone.
It's not telling, just suggesting.
Alison wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:05 pm Vote Epignosis

(yes, I know it doesn't do anything, I just want to make it clear what my stance is from day to day)


Making a list of who protects who only gives more information to the mafia about who is unprotected. And mafia wins the game immediately if they kill nutella, so it is completely useless to know who failed to protect her the day after we lose the game. The strategy you are proposing would make it trivially easy for the mafia to win just by attacking the operator on the night where a mafia member is scheduled to protect her. And a public list of who protects who would make it easier for the mafia to know who they can safely kill since there isn't enough heals to protect everyone at once.

It is correct for town to keep when and who they are using their protect on secret so mafia doesn't know who is being protected, if the operator is shielded, and how many protects the town has left.
Why are you preemptively thinking you'll be called out for making a vote, even in a game where they don’t officially matter to the lynch?

The primary goal with the protects isn't to be blocking every shot, just those aimed at nutella. The secondary goal with the protects should be to keep the towncore alive.
tutuu wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:35 am Oh yea i was also thinking of using RNG to determine our protections

like idk the numbers but lets say arbitrarily say 10% , each bunker goes to rand.org or however eas the site, rolls between 1 and 100, if its 1 to 10 they protect nutella, otherwise save their shot. Obv different on even nights and as more of us die but u get the idea. Like, just think of some numbers that will give us good odds, i think its okay to slightly potentially lose the game on the first night if it means bigger chance to win in the end
tutuu wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:41 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:37 am That’s not what we’re doing lol
feels annoying to disparage my idea without even giving it a chance as if its something silly, and as if luck isnt already involved to a degree in mafia
This plan seems too wolfy to be a wolf, especially with the genuine seeming offense to their idea being dismissed.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:08 am
nutella wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:38 pm
Epignosis wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:32 pm
Epignosis wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:19 pm Also, I'm a bunker and I'm always going to be defending nutella. Don't waste your defense on me.
That should say "Don't waste your defense on nutella."
On the multikill nights more people need to protect me though right?

I only vaguely understand the setup....
and if Epi's an alien...
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:11 am
Epignosis wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:48 pm
dunya wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:44 pm
nutella wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:38 pm
Epignosis wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:32 pm

That should say "Don't waste your defense on nutella."
On the multikill nights more people need to protect me though right?

I only vaguely understand the setup....
2 people. You'll be fine. I promise. Epi and dun got ur back gurl
This is over is an alien laser shoots nutella. That's it.

Bunkers have limited protections. After I'm spent, someone else will need to carry on in my stead (or if I get killed).

This is about setting up a network of protections so that it's clear who failed and is therefore mafia.
regardless, I think this is town
Sow doubt on Epi, then swiftly call him town anyways:hmm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:13 am
dunya wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:54 pm We publicly make a list of who protects who. When someone dies we know who lied :p
okay, but I'm not going through with this unless there are at least 2 people defending Nutella and possibly 3

@linki oh yeah and bunker protects are limited. It might be best to save them until endgame and just force the poe to protect Nutella each day
The PoE are almost always going to be the ones you least want protecting the Laser.

Dragomir wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:15 am All this strategy talk is hurting my brain. I'm merely glancing at these posts right now.
Drago got replaced so not expecting Mac to answer for this, but yeah trying to act lost here when everyone else is doing fine with mechanics talk, and offering up nothing else besides is a bad look.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:16 am
Dragomir wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:15 am All this strategy talk is hurting my brain. I'm merely glancing at these posts right now.
Then ignore mechanics, project town and find scum. We’ll take care of the mechanics.
Good look from Nanook to push Drago into being productive.

Rej wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:27 am Drago doesnt like Spacemovies = bad

Dunya, Alison and Tutu are town GTH, nice energy.
Not excluding the possibility that a wolf is coordinating the mechtalk with others.

Tho nothing else pinged me for now. I am at work, will be properly active later on.
Toss out a few townreads, blanket shade the majority of the game thread, then dip. Whoo boy.

It is likely that there was a wolf participating in the mech discussion just on the probability that one was around to post and that it was the main conversation point, but pointing this out without giving a specific person/s that come off wolfy with their approach to the discussion is just going to sow discord.
dunya wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:34 am
Dragomir wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:30 am
dunya wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:24 am I think we should have at least 3 people saving nutella on any given day. The rest can be up to whatever people wanna do and leave it as a mystery for the aliens to misfire. Hunting through nk is hard at this stage if we want to preserve saves. So we can do regular hunting and I think we already have lots of good content to go through.
How do we go about selecting those 3 ppl?
Tony thinks our scummiest 4 should protect her. We coordinate that itt. I understand why, but my scummiest 4 could be the whole maf team gg y'all ;p but yeah, for a day 1 strategy it makes most sense.
I think it works only for a n1 strategy, as the scum team would have to be exactly the bottom #2-5 of the PoE for us to lose there(the very bottom #1 gets blasted by nutella).
protocultures wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:22 am Hello fellow players. First forum game for me, I am a fairly new mafia player but have played on DM a few times and play the occasional voice/text game over discord. I live in GMT timezone so will probably be out of sync with a lot of you. I draft in word and paste into the forum so hopefully the formatting doesn’t go into the toilet. As editing posts is forbidden, I may repost if this turns out to be a problem.
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The setup is new to me, so I will state a brief understanding of how this works below. If other people have a different view/better understanding, it would be great if people (or the mod) could let me know.

10 bunkers with 4 saves each who don’t know anything other than Nutella is the Laser.

4 aliens who have perfect information.

Odd nights – 1 alien KP.

Even nights – 2 alien KP till 2.

QUESTION – if player x saves themselves, or player y saves player x, and the town laser is shot at player x, does the laser go through the bunker save?

QUESTION – This is a day 0 start, so does laser get to shoot at the end of Day 0? Does it go to Night 0 or Night 1? This is important to work out alien KP and how many saves should be on Nutella.

QUESTION – can aliens no shoot in the night?

I feel like there is a mathematically optimal solution to this game for every night but I am not smart enough to figure it out.

My proposal for Night 0 or Night 1, depending on which it will be is set out below.

We want the minimum number of saves on Nutella but with some math behind it. These saves should be selected and made public by Nutella and all players who are nominated by Nutella to save Nutella should indeed save Nutella with no exceptions. They need to confirm receipt of the message and confirm they will save Nutella, or Nutella needs to re-nominate someone who has seen their request. This should be entirely elected by Nutella and not depend on people saying they will save Nutella – ie picking into Dunya/Epignosis without rnging them is bad.

The other players should make their saves or no saves in secret, but claim them at the start of the next day along with reasons. Town should never lie about their saves in the night and I am a firm believer of laser all liars in this setup.
If aliens have 1 night KP, I suggest 3 nominated saves and if aliens have 2 night KP, I suggest 4 nominated saves.
See some napkin math below which might be wrong, but lets see if I can still remember combinatronics.
1 Alien KP – need to ensure we land AT LEAST 1 town save, so this is basically any outcome except 3 aliens in the 3 nominations. This is 1 minus (4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12) = 1 – 24/2184 = 98.9% Laser lives through the night. I can accept a 1.1% loss in first night if the benefit is that we get to not waste additional bunker saves.
2 Alien KP – need to ensure we land AT LEAST 2 town saves. This gets a bit harder so please flame me loudly if there is an error in the math so we can try and fix it before we nominate saves (assuming I can get laser and town to buy into my plan).
With 4 nominations, there are 5 outcomes with the following distribution:

4 aliens: 4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12 x 1/11 = 24/24,024 = 0.1% (we lose first night with no saves on Nutella)

3 aliens, 1 town: 4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12 x 10/11 x 4 combos = 960/24,024 = 4 % (we lose first night with 1 saves on Nutella)

2 aliens, 2 town: 4/14 x 3/13 x 10/12 x 9/11 x 6 combos = 6,480/24,024 = 27% (we land 2 saves on
Nutella)

1 alien, 3 town: 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 x 4/11 x 4 combos = 11,520/24,024 = 48% (we land 3 saves on Nutella)

4 town: 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 x 7/11 = 5,040 /24,024 = 21% (we land 4 saves on Nutella)

I am okay with 4.1% loss in first night.

My current reads/leanings. Cant necessarily justify them all, because its not always rational or justifiable. Its just how their posts make my gut feel.

Alison – hard town. Thinks Epignosis is alien, and agree re full list of saves being anti town.

Bimbo – no posts.

Carotenoid – light alien read for the short intro. Good to know Mac would agree.

Dragomir – null to light town.

Dyslexicon – null to alien for no solve in 3 posts. “game” doesn’t count and I believe is just to appear non-coaster.

Dunya – started off towny, but then slips into hard alien with the later posts. Implied statement that Carotenoid is town “Can't wait to see your super shiny townies self! ;)”, and the hard tunnel onto LC at the start of day 0. Might be a meta thing I just have no idea but could also just be distancing. Then claims laser will be fine because Dunya/Epi will be using their save onto the laser. “2 people. You'll be fine. I promise. Epi and dun got ur back gurl”. This would be fine if they were both exactly town, but how does anyone else know they are both town? We don’t. “We publicly make a list of who protects who. When someone dies we know who lied” – this is also super alien. We should mix the saves into public and private so the aliens do not have perfect info on saves. Dunya in later posts moves back into town. My head hurts.

Epignosis – hard alien – it’s a vibe thing, cant explain it.

Long Con – Alien. Cant believe they called themselves a bunkerman instead of a bunker person. Consider myself triggered. Gets slightly town for thinking that having no saves left day 5 onward is bad but not that much. “We have to assume the aliens will try to kill nutella every night. We will non-randomly arrange protects to ensure, and insure, that she has multiple layers of protection each night. We will do this in a way that eliminates the possibility of unfortuitously picking all aliens to protect her.” Seems towny but to eliminate the possibility of picking all aliens, we need to use a LOT of bunker saves every even night. Also thinks aliens will be trying to kill the laser every night. I hard disagree and think aliens will leave the laser alone all game since its way easier to kill all the bunkers and win that way. On a meta read without ever having played with them, I simply don’t believe someone with 13k posts would think the aliens would be trying to kill the laser every night.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME – light town for thinking a protection scheme can/should exist. Does not want rng factors into the saves onto Nutella and prefers a set scheme TBC. The arguments with tutu re “trolling” seems town on town to me.

Nutella – LASER

Protocultures – the towniest town that ever towned in the history of townhood

Rej – thinks Dunya, Alison and Tutuu are town GTH. No idea what GTH means but I kinda like their town circle.

Soneji – null to very very light town for having looked into strategies as could have done it for either alignment.

TonyStarkPrime – Null to alien. The strategy of 4 most scummy players onto Laser is bad since if we get 3+ aliens, we insta lose. I much prefer a random 4 than we pick the 4 scummiest, especially since aliens will then try to look scummy intentionally.

Tutuu - Medium town. Wants to know if laser gets to shoot Day 0. Wants town to mass rng saves onto the laser and thinks its okay to lose a non-zero percentage on first night to increase overall town win percentage by not blowing all the bunker saves the first 4 days. I agree with this concept. Tutu thinks Dunya is light town and LongCon is town. I think its weird that Tutuu reads LongCon as town for subjectively incorrect logic, but it seems genuine.
The effort shown here, and in their many other posts, along with a solid progression on their reads puts proto as very likely town. I think the best look of all is this first post, where I would think an over eager, new to forum mafia wolf, would just think about impressing with their mechanics/math and forget to actually give proper reads but proto went above and beyond.
tutuu wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:35 am (ioa information over analysis is what i was looking for)
Doesn't surprise me given him saying he is new to forum mafia.
Carotenoid wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:09 am hyijifhinrjdfihbrenjdfhedsi aaaaaaaah multiquote button didn't work bierjnnfierhehuj
*take a deep breathe* it's gonna be okay
anyway

TonyStarkPrime's plan seems to be the best so far, but it's kinda risky to the not-poe-people past n1, if that makes sense. So I propose that we kinda flip it around:

- On odd nights, two top townreads (or like one top townread + 2 midlytownread that can't all be wolves together) protect nutella. And then we could do something like bottom of POE protect the people protecting nutella and all the others only self-protect if they feel the need to.

- On even nights, bottom of POE protect nutella. The rest of the players only self-protect if they feel the need to.

That way, the protection shots are used more horizontally and avoids that town ends up with no shots at the end. Also I feel like unless we specifically coordinate something specific in the thread, bunker shots should only be used on their own slot.
The odd night plan is pretty solid, but the even night is wack. You need to have confidence in there being two town protects in there on even nights. On odd nights needing just one you have more leeway to include the PoE.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:06 pm I also think that nobody except Nutella should be saved, full stop. Including self saves.
How about NO! You crazy Dutch bastard!
Alison wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:32 pm ok, misread the OP - I thought each Bunker could only protect once. Apparently they have 4 shots. Still not enough to waste them on a mass protect of every player in the game.
Misread the OP versus misread role PM:hmm


Coming out of d0 roughly where I'm at :

Good

proto
tutuu
Dunya

Still deciding

Nanook
Long Con
Carot
Dizzy
Bimbo(don't think they posted?)

Bad

Epi
TSP
Alison
Rej
Drago/Mac


As for the strat I think is best : I'm good with the bottom four PoE strat for n1 only, otherwise think top 3 towncore should protect nutella on odd nights, top 4 towncore on even nights. Could mix in some of the middle of the pack to preserve some of the top towncores protects, best to adjust that as we go. On that first night, the middling PoE should use their protects on the towncore. On subsequent nights the bottom of the PoE should be protecting the towncore, with probably a double up on the very top of the towncore. Force aliens to shoot into bottom or middling Poe, or have to use two kills on even nights to kill one towncore and not even the best SPK they could get.

For simplicities sake, will lay out the first three nights :

N1 : Bottom four of the PoE assigned to protect nutella, while the next three lowest PoE protect the top 3 towncore.

N2 : Top three towncore+one middling PoE protect nutella, while the bottom three to four in the PoE protect the top 3 towncore. If four double up on the very top towncore SPK.

N3 : Top two towncore+one middling PoE protect nutella, bottom three PoE protects top three towncore.

With this we can shuffle enough to have top towncore with protects left up until late. It's a small game, so I think people are overestimating how conservative we need to be with protects. By the end of n4, there can be up to 10 deaths if the aliens succeed on both their double kills. Then n5 being an odd night needs only one towncore with a protect left alive to secure nutella's safety.


Now onto d1.
phew this is some wishy washy stuff, you partially have summarizes then try to reason your own opinion, you have a hard time to fit in
that PoE looks good if you flip it by 180 degree and keep Mac at the bottom

talk with me about Epi
yeah these are teammates


(last time I said that in a game I was right :noble: )
to the spoiler go the victories:
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#940

Post by Hally »

Alison wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:37 pm
Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:22 am @Alison, why go to such extent for Dyslexicon meta, but not with Epignosis meta?
Why did you suspect Dragomir in the first place?
You said « dyslexicon's "everyone is town or null except drago" readslist still reeks of bussing to me and I think there's a significant chance that they're partners together », now that you think that Dyslexicon is town, how does it impact your read of Dragomir-MacDougall?

MacDougall is chaos, Rej, Soneji and bimbo are still missing in action...
1) Why put effort for Dizzy and not Epi?

Because Epi meta wouldn't have helped unless I was willing to go to much farther lengths than I had the time, energy or inclination to. The thing with Dizzy was that I was checking up on specific, easily checkable behaviors - having a lot of townreads as town, general belief in the correctness of throwing around towncred left and right, not bussing their partners hard as scum. For Epi, my confusion was that I needed to know Epi as a player or maybe even as a person to untangle the mess of claims/hostility/rapid-fire volley of shots they took at me, and figure out how that impacted their alignment one way or another. That isn't something you can check just by skimming through a few ISOs - you'd basically have to read the entire game or get to know them properly to figure that out.

2) I suspected Dragomir in the first place primarily because the response to some people scumreading him was for Dizzy (who I theorized to be his wolf partner) to immediately bus him (or so I thought at the time). This is why when I put Dizzy and Dragomir down as scum on my initial list, I listed them together - because my theory was that they were specifically wolf buddies together and Dizzy was bussing him. I've later come into evidence about Dizzy's meta that shows that Dizzy's actions weren't necessarily a bus, which means that particular reason for suspecting Dragomir is out the window.

Later on, my suspicions on the Dragomir/MacDougall slot were renewed by MacDougall's behavior. As much as we try to keep out of game stuff from influencing out reads, the fact is that if someone is under pressure and subs out, they're >rand to be wolf (because town would be more likely to be like "okay losers, here's my reads, sheep me after I flip green"). MacDougall came into a slot like that and immediately started exhibiting a whole bunch of anti-town behavior. I put two and two together, and they add up to a scumread on Mac.
i don’t understand your process of solving at all but idk if scummy
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#941

Post by Hally »

Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:43 pm Why Soneji? I like his reads and he's not even there.
i feel like scum just... doesnt say this directly after nut announces that she will most likely shoot soneji? like carotte would just be making herself look terrible for no reason
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#942

Post by Long Con »

nutella wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:04 am
Hally wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:03 am
nutella wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:18 pm I don't understand the scumreads on LC. And I think rej's recent posts lean town. :shrug:
i haven’t seen LC like... do anything though? he hasn’t solved yet as far as i can see. but i saw he said he is a slow starter so maybe this is normal for him? also what’s townish about rej? also why do i insist on asking you these questions? the world may never know
Yeah I feel like I gave LC a bit too much early credit based on a pure tone/gut read and haven't been seriously evaluating him or holding him to enough of a standard so I need to drop that townread to make him do stuff.
I'll do what I can, and I'll use my protects as cleverly as I can. Right now, I like Epi's Soneji analysis, and I agree that Tony should be put into the town category.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#943

Post by Long Con »

Hally wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:17 am
Carotenoid wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:43 pm Why Soneji? I like his reads and he's not even there.
i feel like scum just... doesnt say this directly after nut announces that she will most likely shoot soneji? like carotte would just be making herself look terrible for no reason
Good point. Town points for Carotenoid.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#944

Post by Hally »

TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:46 pm points more to alison I think. Soft defense -> not even mentioning soneji
wait where was allison’s soft defense of soneji? i missed this
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#945

Post by Hally »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:47 pm Actually all three of them are probably mafia lol
why dunya? i have paranoia about her but idk where its coming from
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Re: Space Invaders [Night 1]

#946

Post by Carotenoid »

nutella wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:49 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:20 am @nutella if you haven’t already, you should be dictating our protection plan relatively soonish.

I recommend three in the POE ordered to protect you, nobody else uses a protect.
ugh stop demanding I make the decisions I legit have no idea what the best strat is here


how about you/dunya/carot

rej is top suspect, not taking a risk there. I'd say those three names are very unlikely to all be alien so....?
That feels a bit overkill for N1 if Epignosis is protecting you but ok
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#947

Post by Hally »

protocultures wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:50 pm Agh mobile submission ate my post.

I don't like the shot on Soneji but don't have any super support for why not. Just here for the town cred post flip I guess.

The strong omgus from Epi is amusing and continues to make me believe they are an alien.
i feel like this is also not s/s with soneji for the same reason as carotte? but maybe this is a dumb way to think about it
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#948

Post by Hally »

protocultures wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:58 pm You can trend me down if I'm wrong on Soneji.

Trending me down because you townread epi would be unfortunate.

I would go so far as to say shoot epi and if they flip town you can shoot me next day.
yea idk this doesnt feel like someone who knows soneji is about to flip scum? like would scum!proto really think that he could sway nut into not shooting soneji. ive seen nut in spec chat and she is not the easily swayed type :p
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#949

Post by Long Con »

Hally wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:23 am
protocultures wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:50 pm Agh mobile submission ate my post.

I don't like the shot on Soneji but don't have any super support for why not. Just here for the town cred post flip I guess.

The strong omgus from Epi is amusing and continues to make me believe they are an alien.
i feel like this is also not s/s with soneji for the same reason as carotte? but maybe this is a dumb way to think about it
Disagree. This post is something I could easily see as clever distancing, once Soneji is slated to die.
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Re: Space Invaders [Day 1]

#950

Post by MacDougall »

Hally wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:21 am
MacDougall wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:47 pm Actually all three of them are probably mafia lol
why dunya? i have paranoia about her but idk where its coming from
Dunya has been a mixed bag. I need time to evaluate her properly and probably more flips. I don't think the Soneji flip does her a great deal of favours but I need to corroborate that.
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