The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:07 am

@speedchuck
@nutella
@Russtifinko

Long overdue

Ooooooh, yes!! Thanks, Triple J!

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 6:37 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 6:32 pm Sorry but I was hoping Russ would block Sloonei on Night 4 just so I could laugh at the eternal futility of his role

I would have laughed pretty hard.

But that block... such an accidental source of WIFOM attached to Turnip Head's role there. I was convinced turnip was bad because that role should be dead the instant it claims 9 times out of 10. The only exception is a mafia roleblock.

Oh, I was well aware of the WIFOM I was causing here. I lucked into a lot of things this game, but that was intentional.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 7:21 pm since people thought i was just being a jerk:

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:35 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:00 pm

Day 0 begins now and will last 24 hours. Each player may post a maximum of 25 times during Day 0. All Jiggy pursuits, night actions, and voting will not take place until Day 1 and onward. You may begin posting.

y'all wasting moments time with each rhyme. all that effort in vain for no benefit gain.

i'm just subverting the obvious rhymes that should have been there. it's very humorous wordplay, please laugh.

Hah! I never even noticed this. Well done.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 7:46 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 7:44 pm huh something new added to the crazy mafia gimmicks idea list

tune into economists mafia, the sequel to philosophers mafia to see what this new this new gimmick could be! Coming late 2020/early 2021.

Ooh! Llama and I hosted an economists' mafia a few years ago. That sounds fun.

Linki: Thanks NANOOK!

If you guys will bear with me for a shameless plug (no disrespect JJJ, hope you don't mind):

Me and MP will be co-hosting Congressional Mafia later this year, and I'm really excited about it! The plan is to have it be a sort of Syndicate-Mafia Universe crossover game, and I'd be thrilled to have any and all of you sign up! I'll make sure to let you know when it starts.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 6:05 pm @Russtifinko that was the mafia performance of a lifetime. Speed and I didn't deserve for you to go so hard. But you pulled it through. Incredible. That's a Socky vote locked in.

Thanks so much, nutella! I know you say you and Speed didn't deserve it, but I literally couldn't have done it without either of you. From helping me figure out the basic game mechanics (lol) to solving what civs were what roles, to planning out the NKs, to doing the absolute perfect amount of distancing from D1 - you set me up for victory the whole way.

Also, mad props to JJJ - you hosted a marvelous game. From the theme to the host posts to managing all the drama, you truly nailed every aspect. (I think I may have complained in BTSC that I felt like the game was unbalanced, but, uh, please do me the favor of pretending I never said it.)

I honestly had twice as much fun as I expected to, and I expected to have a fair bit going in. Also, I will absolutely be playing more rackets. This game still sucked up way more of my life and my emotional energy than I expected, but the post limit made it manageable.

Linki: haha Epi. You can view being NKed N1 as a mark of respect. I was truly sad that I didn't get to play with you longer.

PS I would love to get ot read the spec chat sometime! Sounds like fun to see what you all were thinking, and I didn't know it was a thing.

Linki RE: Night actions: Oh my god, I didn't realize G-Man tracked me N3 haha. Also, we were very lucky we had Speed do the kill N1 so I wasn't immediately outed. So many close calls here.

Hooo man. Super well played everyone, especially my three MYLO-mates. You guys played incredible and had me so nervous up to the very last second, when I switch my vote to TH. (I was, probably unreasonably, scared that a tied lynch would result in no lynch and I'd have to do LYLO too).

Linki: Wow, thank you so so so so much everyone! I'm humbled by all the praise - I truly consider myself a man among giants when I walk into a mafia game with you all. I am not being falsely modest when I say I only won that game because I haven't been around in a while - you all had stupendous intuition, and I only avoided being detected because you didn't have anything to compare my baddie play against.

Also, dunya, I hope that I didn't ruin the game too badly for you and that there's no permanent bad feelings. I tried to play Day 1 exactly as I would as a civ, and it's true that you and I seem to come from extremely different mafia cultures. After that, at times it felt useful to have a foil in the thread, and I also felt like I couldn't go back on my suspicion without drawing more notice onto myself. I think that you handled everything - the tunneling, the fighting, etc. - with unbelievable class, and you played an amazing game, too. Truly honored to have met you and I hope we get to be civs together sometime.

Gaaaah alright, you guys convinced me. Sloon has had a good radar and dunya is good friends with TH, so I gotta believe you guys can read them. Would feel too bad if I lost us the game.

Do we know how tied lynches are decided? Coin flip?

Thank you both. I found it. I do think nutella opposing TH on the Mac thing and taking the opposite stance on both sig and NANOOK is possible distancing. As far as the role claim, I agree it looked weird at the time, but right now it seems ok to me. However, I take your point that the role is too powerful to exist in the game.

Linki: Thanks Sloon for the refresher as well. That's helpful.

God. TH's tone has seemed so genuine to me, but if I lose us the game by mislynching dunya by tunneling her I will feel so awful. I don't see myself voting Sloon today - if he made everything up, I'm gonna just say he's the best baddie of all time and there was nothing I could do.

Can dunya (or anyone) point me to the TH/nutella interactions that look bad? I just skimmed through, and all I saw was TH GTH'ed nutella as a slight scum read. Somewhat panic-reading here, so sorry if I missed it.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 2:18 pm I think that I could vote for Russ. If I try to convince myself it's dunya, everything goes in the opposite direction. She passes all the tests for me. I reviewed the early game, and Turnip looks better than Russ in retrospect. My concerns about Russ from yesterday have not gone away, and his content today, while very much appreciated, has a bit of formality(?) to it, as though he's doing this all out of obligation rather than necessity. It also feels like he's not really arriving at anything decisive. I expect uncertainty at this point, but let's take his most recent substantive post as an example:

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 1:54 pm This is hard. I still think I have a VERY slight dunya lean, but I am trying very hard to keep an open mind that I've been pocketed by TH and am tunneling them as a result. Occam's Razor would suggets Sloon is telling the truth, and if that's the case, the TH suspicion of Sloon is far-fetched and somewhat counterproductive.

This reads like a player who's biding him time and waiting for the right moment to cast a vote for anybody. I don't sense the inner turmoil that the words suggest, and there's no way to tell which way Russ is ultimately going to go here.

I don't think this is a fair characterization. I can't really address the formality thing, but as far as uncertainty, of course I'm uncertain. I'm trying to weigh a lot of factors: there's more info/claiming in this game than I'm used to, and we've only lynched one baddie (and we never got any real resistance to that), so I'd say there's less thread info to go on. And each of you has made really good points within the last day - it's a hard calculation how much to weigh those things vs interactions with Speed/nutella, for example.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 9:01 amwe have plenty of info and tbh, i want to enjoy my weekend of good weather doing outside stuff and not being anxious about defending myself against someone who's tunneled me all game and someone who will find it easier to agree i'm bad. i wasn't lying, i'm broken from mafia.

I actually agree with this. If we can win today, I'd rather do that - this game has been exhausting. But if Sloon/dunya both vote me, as their most recent posts looks like they're leaning, I'd join TH in a No Lynch vote because that's better than just losing.

Going to reread the TH/nutella/Speed interactions and see if that helps any. For now, place holder vote on [VOTE: dunya] aubergine.

Sorry - unclear pronoun above. Should read that I'm trying to keep an open mind that TH has pocketed me and I'm tunneling DUNYA as a result.

I'll be back in about 3hrs to finalize.

dunya, thanks for the detailed response to my review of you and TH. It actually has me feeling a little better about you...

and if your more recent post was meant to make a point about me making everything you do sound bad, well done. Taste of my own medicine there, if I look at it from your angle.

This is hard. I still think I have a VERY slight dunya lean, but I am trying very hard to keep an open mind that I've been pocketed by TH and am tunneling them as a result. Occam's Razor would suggets Sloon is telling the truth, and if that's the case, the TH suspicion of Sloon is far-fetched and somewhat counterproductive.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 4:40 pm The ranking from "I actually feel bad about this person" to "I wasn't allowed to vote neutral so I voted scum cuz I don't wanna have too little scum reads" was

TH > nutella > sloonei > nanook > TSP

I didn't mean to get into rereading DDL, but.....

This was DDL's suspect list on Night 1. He was on nutella way earlier than I had realized. Also MP listed nutella as scum in the N1 GTH. I haven't thought of a way to quickly search how everyone felt about her, but Sloonei at least was not the only one pushing her.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 1:45 pm Not sure how obvious it was nutella was going to die. I think the movement mostly started late at night? A lot of people said they were okay with it pretty fast. But there were other wagons floating around. Sloonei himself was mainly going against Gman, some people were attacking nanook, etc.

Another thing: in general, DDL played it very cool about vigging nutella. He didn't even really celebrate it, much less come out and say he did it. Of course, G-Man outed him, but I get the sense he didn't even really want that to happen. So it's possible he was just trying to play coy in general and give anything away to the baddies at all. However, he does mention that his impression was that Sloon was on G-Man on N3, not nutella. It's possible I've been assuming DDL got the same thing from Sloon's posts that I did when really he didn't, and as I said, Sloon has been more than happy to take the credit where he can.

One other thing worth noting - rereading DDL, I didn't realize how hard he had been after TH. Essentially from D1, TH was his top suspect at almost all points (except apparently the night he vigged nutella, but again, he played that very close to the chest). Obviously DDL had no info on TH, and it starts early enough that I think it could be viewed as a potential case of tunneling. However, DDL's instincts were good this game overall.

I have to work now....I thought things would crystallize for me overnight, but I actually am finding reason to suspect all of you. Sloon taking too much credit for the vig is a worse look than I thought. But if Sloon actually is good, then TH pushing for him today would almost definitely mean TH is bad, because expanding the POE would be a baddie move. So there's this weird Sloon/TH dichotomy set up in my mind now where one of you is lying. However, dunya was my original suspect, and I still think she's looked suspicious even if no one seems to agree with me.

Hoping you guys write back and we can figure it out via discussion today...right now I feel like I'm posting into the void.

Re-reading Speed, this D4 exchange with dunya was notable for tone. Speed said 'bullshit' in it, despite cursing only one other time in the game (and that was in his second post in a rhyme). Weirdly aggressive for him. He eventually backed off after dunya roleclaimed and voted for me.

Re-reading these posts made me realize that if dunya were bad, claiming a vote manipulation power would be risky. It seems like JJJ didn't put doubles of any role powers in the game, at least not on the same faction. So if she had made up the claim and someone else had claimed it too, it would've narrowed the POE for today to 2. On the other hand, as Speed himself pointed out, baddies shouldn't have role manipulation powers. So if people believed the claim and no one counter-claimed it would essentially clear her.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 1:13 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 1:06 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 1:03 pm @dunya I don't see a claim in your ISO. Wtf are you talking about.

why would i claim before i use my role, silly? i'll use it today tho. just gotta figure out who i suspect mostest and get input from my buds ddl and sloonei.

i should be like, isoing russ and th and you, but i really just dont feel like playing that way today atm so im not.

Then your reason for being all like 'Oh no the mafia might gonna kill me tonight, here are some final reads and directions' is complete bullshit.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 1:24 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 1:18 pm please don't be too obvious in what i said was gonna happen, speedy. like, try to mask it a little bit even. you know, try to show us that you're actually reading other people too maybe. like you weighed it hard and decided im bad. it was a heavy decision on you, etc.

i always do final reads at night. not to be egoistical, but i'm often night killed cos i'm so good.

So this is a NO U, and then a different answer than I got last time. Okay.

I just got back to the thread and this was the first ping I picked up on. So I pursued it. I'm not trying to be theatrical or to look good, and I'm not done yet.

If I look at the dunya exchange from dunya-civ, I guess I'd say Speed was just trying to throw shade generally, and it didn't stick because of the role claim.

If I look at this from dunya-bad, it was a bit of distancing before Speed died, and it would mean Speed and dunya were essentially running a gambit to roleclear dunya together. Remember, Speed was the one who said vote manipulation = civ (although I know Sloon later agreed, as do I.) It would've been somewhat risky because of the possibility of counterclaim, but if I remember correctly, only TH and I had not claimed yet, and they may have figured one of us would lose a 1v1 showdown to dunya.

Even dunya clarifying her role with JJJ could have been made up, although I can explain that from a civ or baddie perspective. She said she initially forgot a pretty important part of her role (it not working today). I wonder if, when Sloon poked her about it, she realized she had to make up the second part. In hindsight, this claim was never going to be verified on D4 because Speed took all the votes. However, dunya could have realized that if she is civ and doesn't say her power is deactivated today, she would have to be NKed because a baddie can't allow double vote powers in MYLO. So if she is civ, she has to make that up to survive the night. If she was bad, she had to make it up because otherwise when she survived N5 everyone would've known she was lying. I think that if dunya is civ, we need to consider that her vote might still be worth 2. dunya, you weren't ever specific about what the conditions of your power being deactivated were - can you tell us?

Honestly, if you made up the deactivation thing, absolutely brilliant move whether you're civ or baddie.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 12:34 pm

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 12:21 pm he'd have had to bus nutella when no one was really looking at her with the result of her being vigged.

No one looking at her? I'm pretty certain she was in several scumread lists before Sloonei sat on her.

I'm going to look back at this - I suppose it's possible I've been giving Sloonei too much credit for getting nutella killed. I don't think DDL ever credited Sloon specifically, but Sloon has always seemed happy to take credit for it.

However, Speed shading Sloon in and of itself is a good look.

That's all I get from a Speed reread.

Apologies for the long posts - I hope I'm not flooding the thread. I think this stream-of-conscious analysis is a good thing to have done tonight so I can sleep on it. I'm not ready to draw firm conclusions from it until I reread Speed and nutella, probably in the morning. But I am at least convinced to keep everyone in my POE, instead of excluding Sloon.

Just FYI on my schedule tomorrow, I work a 9-5 job in Eastern time. So I'll be on in the morning, briefly at lunchtime, and then about an hour before the lynch. I think I've set it up so I won't be too rushed to get caught up and finalize before the lynch, just don't want anyone panicking if I'm not around 2-3 hours before end of day.

No quote for this, and I don't think it will surprise anyone: Sloon started this game out very uncertain, but on D3 he took a very aggressive and confident tone.

For civ-Sloon, the explanation is 2 things: 1) what he said - he got more used to the format and found his footing, and 2) having a baddie get caught gave him more leads and a burst of energy.

For bad-Sloon, the explanation is he freaked out when nutella died unexpectedly and realized they had to switch up their play to react. Speed didn't really do this, but I guess different people can react differently. If I'm really tinfoiling here, I'd note that heavy suspicion was directed a G-Man and MP, who both got confirmed shortly after, and he called very early that one of Speed/TonyJack was bad, but didn't say this one. This is a baddie move I've seen occasionally, where a baddie will put a teammate in a group of suspicious people, then push to lynch the civs in that group. It simulataneously leads to mislynches and distances.

However, that is fairly tinfoily, and I'd say overall the civ-Sloon explanation fits better.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 6:51 pm that potentially puts us at mylo tomorrow. just a heads up.

Sloon was actually the first person to realize MYLO. Obviously that's just simple math, but (a pretty tinfoily) part of me wonders if mafia would be more attuned to that.

Night 3 - if I'm going even more tinfoily, G-Man was the one who first brought up that Sloon's claim couldn't 100% clear him. G-Man was killed that night.

Day 4 - In contrast to D3, an overall less aggressive tone IMO. The first part of the day he never posted more than one-liners, though he did go after me pretty hard at the end of the day. That is most likely because Speed was the presumptive lynch, though, so not necessarily alignment-indicative. It could be the same effect as we saw with the sig lynch in D2. And the case he posted on me right after that lynch was massive, which makes me think he was still in baddie-hunting mode. He posted something D1 about associative reads being bad after he messed up guessing teammates for a hypothetical baddie Mac, so this fits with that. The tinfoil here would be he didn't want to seem to against lynching a teammate, but came out aggressively to direct a mislynch after the coast was clear on that.

N4-present:

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 1:04 pm I’ll answer questions during the day. I don’t expect to die at this point. I’m probably leaning toward a vote for Turnip.

I hadn't really noticed before, but this is OMGUS, right? TH doubted your claim, then you said you thought they were bad?

I can't help but draw a parallel here with what dunya accused TH of - thinking people are good/bad based on what they think you are. The counterpoint TH made actually rings true here, too: from a civ-Sloon perspective, this is the only thing that makes sense, because a baddie is the only person incentivized to drive mislynches. For someone who doesn't know your alignment, though, it falls a little flat.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 3:43 pm I agree with the point about TH’s claim of no result today. It makes more sense for a mafioso to just say that it was one of us. But my paranoia regarding that is that TH’s plan all along was to pin it on me, but that was blown up the moment we wound up in BTSC together.

But I owe it to everyone in this game to re-evaluate before I make a decision.

This is the thing you've said most recently that I have the most trouble understanding. Why would BTSC ruin TH's plan to pin it on you? If TH were bad and got BTSC, they could just say you killed DDL and were lying about the BTSC. Me and dunya would have no way to disprove that, and we'd probably believe them.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 4:02 pm There’s also this to consider: Turnip Head’s role claim is super powerful in late game, the kind of thing that can easily win the game for town in our current situation. The only way it makes sense for that role to survive last night is for there to be a roleblocker on the other side. I brought this up as a point to consider in TH’s favor earlier, but now I’m doing the opposite: if Turnip Head claims to have a result today, the lie becomes obvious: the mafia player had no way of stopping that role, and thus there’s no way they should have been left alive. TH has to claim no result.

I suppose this is fair - if you assume a baddie roleblocker, TH has to not claim. But again, if TH were going to lie to us today anyway, what's one more untruth? Why not say there is no baddie roleblocker? We could never verify that.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 9:24 pm Speedchuck hasn't voted at all? I really doubt he would do that if he were bad tbh :-/

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 10:44 am If @speedchuck votes, my plan as of right now is to lynch Jack. If votes stay where they are that's what's gonna happen.

TH, apologies that I missed your reasoning - could you refresh me on what made you prefer a Jack lynch over Speed?

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 3:06 pm Don't fall for her pretty words Russti, stay the course. The baddie team is speed and dunya. We could lynch speed first if you're more comfortable with that.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 6:57 pm [I've made my stance on all these players clear and taking POE out of the equation feels disingenuous to me. I think Russ did a good job of summing up what feels dishonest about dunya, and if she's bad, speedchuck is the only teammate that fits.

The first part of this worked out pretty well, and I do think the Speed/dunya story still holds up.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 4:42 pm if I was scum with speed I just would have lynched dunya today, I certainly wouldn't be pushing no Lynch at Mylo

And your wrong btw, getting to Lylo is the definitive move for town here, I bet the host will agree with me post-game (see poll question)

Sloon and dunya, what are your thoughts on going to LYLO, or the fact that TH suggested it? No one has really engaged TH on this.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 7:28 pm I don't really have a good defense for how Nutella and speedchuck treated me. As for my side of the story, I typically don't respond to every person who suspects me. If I did that I'd never have time to talk about anything else. It's unfortunate that two players who I kind of ignored were bad, but I'm town.

I think this post is a good look. To me, the classic civ play when accused is to ignore it and keep hunting baddies, up until the point where you think you're gonna be mislynched or it will derail the game.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 8:09 am Every other town role is basic and simple except for Sloonei's, which is wacky and chaotic.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 9:28 pm I feel like a town!sloon would be cognizant of the fact that "breadcrumbing" his role to Russti or whatever doesn't actually clear him. Like he'd understand that it is not irrefutable proof of his role. He'd instead say things like "I know this doesn't actually clear me". Sloonei has been acting like his breadcrumbs are above reproof, when he would know that isn't actually true because there was no corroborating evidence. That's what makes me think he's hiding behind his claim and trying to be sneaky.

Yes I currently have btsc with him for some reason, and yes that would be a powerful mafia role, but it'd also be a powerful town role, so it's powerful either way. It's certainly not game-breaking like he insinuated.

Sloon dealing in absolutes based on murky evidence makes me not want to trust him.

These are good points. I still think that overall, I have the most info-related reason to trust Sloon of the 3 of you, but you're making a compelling case that I shouldn't 100% rely on that to be alignment-confirming.

It sounds like you trust Sloon less than dunya or me right now, would you say that's the case?

It's interesting - my dunya read-through actually had me thinking more about TH and vice versa. I guess I'd say that reading their posts in a vacuum, both players feel pretty ok since D3 overall, albeit each with a few moments that seem weird. Reading TH makes me feel a bit worse about dunya, though again, I'm trying not to tunnel on that. But I wouldn't say reading dunya makes me feel worse about TH.

Linki: TH, hard agree on your sentiment that whoever is bad here has played really well. Reading Sloon next, will let you know if I agree on that part.

Thoughts on dunya:

Doing a fresh reread of D3 and beyond here. I'm hoping that it'll help with any tunneling. Just highlighting things that feel interesting/relevant, not necessarily with an overarching theme.

dunya wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 5:15 pm In case I'm gone tonight, good luck guys

Remember, TH is bad.

Russti or speed teammate. I feel it's Russ but get those claims and do those amazing isos sloonster.

I still think a lot about this post is weird. Thinking she would be NK'ed when there are power roles and confirmed civs, the certainty TH is bad.

As I read back through, I could trace a little better how the flip on TH happened - it wasn't quite as abrupt as I originally thought just reading the thread in real time. I'm not sure if that improves my impression of it - I still disagree with the assertion that TH wasn't contributing, and it felt out of character for dunya. So it could still have been contrived. However, there's a stronger thread of thought I can follow.

dunya wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 8:10 pm and i am certain now russti and TH are bad. russti has this amazing ability to project badness into your posts. i have never seen it before since golden. very impressive stuff. i'll probably go into more depth about why these 2 are teammates, but i bet my goat on it.

dunya, you never elaborated on this post (I think you wrote that you didn't feel like playing that way). If I'm looking at this from a dunya-town perspective, it's kind of a bummer, but I get it. It would have been useful to see the case, but I'm a little burned out from this game, and you've said you are, particularly from me going after you.

If I look at it from a dunya-bad perspective, this post serves a couple of purposes. It's a soft defense of Speed by offering other candidates, but without ever tying dunya to Speed or even saying his name. One could argue that as you saw the REO Speedwagon gaining steam, you were forced to back off of this and vote him after all. It also makes you look like you're doing more than you are - I actually was surprised when I read back and you never made this case.

I keep coming back to this weird certainty you had that TH would be lynched....I never regarded them as a top-tier (like top 2) lynch candidate until today. But you made a few posts about it like you were certain it would happen (and certain of TH flipping bad). I feel like this is a very important point, but I'm having trouble processing whether it's good or bad. A baddie would be able to project certainty about the flip. But a baddie would also not have the power dunya claimed, making the lynch less certain. On the other hand, I don't see how civ dunya would feel certain about either one. dunya and I clearly think very differently, though, so if she were a civ I'd just have to chalk it up to different perspectives.
@dunya, when you posted this, did you think they were distancing? That seems to be the unspoken implication, and you were trying to associate me and TH earlier in the day. However, it also sort of seems like something you don't think TH is really capable of. Trying to understand if this was case-building or the beginning of a change of mind. It did look like you back off the me/TH teammates theory later in the day.

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 2:30 pm [TH] said something to mac when mac was suspecting [them] and [they] did a hard NO U on him "if you're town work with me" and [they] keeps saying that to me. it actually does the opposite of inspiring confidence in [them] whenever [they do] say that. either i trust [them], or [they think] i'm bad.

(Corrected for pronouns.)
I actually agree about this, though you worded it better than I had been. TH has done this a few times, where how I read it, it bordered on "if you don't agree with me you're bad". I thought it was the only one bothered by this, since you didn't call it out at the time.

I think that it's a SUPER bad look to be saying that, and often results in railroading mislynches. However, TH has done it very consistenly throughout this game, as dunya pointed out. I almost feel like a baddie would realize that and not do it, or a teammate would tell them to lay off it in BTSC. I am really torn on this.

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 4:46 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 3:56 pm If mafia doesn't kill TH next night they are suicidal. His role is even stronger than G-Man's. And they have shown extreme degrees of cop fear anyway.

This makes me a little more willing to leave TH alive. To see if he doesn't get killed.

That said, if he is mafia, he's going to come with result that will implicate someone, and then the game will boil down to him versus someone else.

While if he is killed, me and Sloonei won't, so it's still 1v1.

So I'm leaning on lynching one of speed or dunya instead.

I don't understand this. If you lunch me it's game over. There is no next day. So if you really think it's me with one of the other three (speed, TH or Russ), keep your vote on me.

I'm still pondering this, too. I think DDL was right that the baddies have had extreme cop paranoia this game, and aside from the possibility of DDL having another vig shot, TH was the most powerful role left. This leads to 2 possibilities:

1) TH is bad and was lying.
2) The baddies both have a roleblock and believed one of the following: DDL had a vig shot left, OR TH would be easier to mislead than DDL today.

If we assume TH is good, this would imply that the baddie is someone whom DDL suspected and TH did not. Something to read for when I review them.

Linki: haha TH. The gifs have been on point all game, and that's my favorite one so far.

I'll throw this out there: If TH is bad, claiming no result last night is a weird move. If they were bad, they'd just claim it was one of us and the game is basically won, right? I think it has a ring of honesty.

I guess you could tinfoil that other claims haven't worked out great for us this game, so maybe they were paranoid about that and thought it was safer to just sow general confusion. However, overall it looks good to me.

Sloon, thanks for being so forthcoming about your role. I also think it's a somewhat good look for you - it would seem very elaborate to make all that up. I agree that a baddie that roleblocks and puts someone in BTSC seems too strong, as well.

I'm going to be reading everyone again this evening - probably won't do full ISOs, but I might post quotes here and there that I think are particularly relevant. I'm going to try to more or less disregard claim stuff as I do. We haven't seen any evidence of TH or dunya's claims, and Sloon's seems legit but could hypothetically exist for a baddie in some form, even if it's far-fetched. I still think we oughta be able to crack this based on the thread.

TH, out of curiosity what's your thoughts on a No Lynch and forcing another day of LYLO? You proposed it yesterday no ended up voting, wondering if you still feel the same.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 8:25 am And based on that breadcrumb, what was the good reason you were supposed to have had for not suspecting sloonei, @Russtifinko ?

Well, I suppose you have a point. Sloonei didn't come out and say he had targeted me and dunya for gifts (hinted in Post 844, said it straight out in Post 873) until after MP had said he put us in jail (Post 823).

But if you have BTSC with him now, that would mean his role is confirmed, right? If so, a gift-giving role seems more likely to be good than bad.

Sloon, really would like ot hear from you on other gifts you can give. I have thoughts on what it means for your alignment, but don't want to share before you give details.

Sloonei can you give other items besides temporary BTSC? If so, what? And what did you try to give to me and dunya? (Again, assuming all of this doesn't relate to earning jiggies. If it does, don't answer.)

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 8:06 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 11:46 pm

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 2:33 pm I am Leaky and my role could still be useful if we go to Lylo.

I select a player two nights in the game, and if that player is killed that night i learn who killed them. I didn't use it the first two nights and last night I selected DDL thinking they would kill him for sure, but they went with G-Man instead. I still have one watch left.

The limited utility of the role where it only works upon death does not mesh with anything else in the game, or with the style of role i'd expect to see in a jay game.

Why doesn't it mesh with the game? I think it fits fine, and more importantly, it is my actual role. I think sloonei's role is the one that doesn't fit, and the revealed mafia so far is noticeably missing a manipulator/disruptor role, which I think can fit for Sloonei.

@Russtifinko, can you point me towards Sloonei's breadcrumb?

Sure. The bolded part of Sloonei's post.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 10:04 pm

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 8:24 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 3:41 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 3:30 pm I don't remember which game it was, but I think there was an instance where town Sig lost a game on purpose to make a point about being against claiming. Or maybe it was someone else (this happens a lot in the other forum I play in). Correct me if I'm wrong.

If this is true it makes me paranoid, though. There is a good chance nanook is telling the truth but his info isn't really conclusive, and Sig is gonna self destruct to make a point anyway.

Notably Nanook also faked a red peek in a recent game (the baseball one), though that person happened to be indeed mafia But from what he's said here I believe he's not lying this time and he is admitting that his info might not be 100% reliable. But yeah you make a point that goes against Nanook's plan to policy-lynch sig for refusing to claim.

I've been known to take pretty hard-line stances against claiming and infodumping, too. But it's in the rules for this game, so to the extent it helps us, we might as well. We're at a disadvantage to begin with because of post count restrictions, so we should use every (legal) advantage we have.

I wouldn't call it a policy lynch, though. Even with NANOOK's admittedly not-certain infodump, I probably wouldn't vote sig today if that was the only thing against him. There's also yesterday's lynch vote, which looked like a save to me, and his reaction to this read, which has been to stubbornly not claim and then make a bunch of false statements.

G-Man, I'm gonna ISO both you and Sloonei, with as open a mind as possible, but I probably won't get around to it until tomorrow at least. He pinged me very early on, and you're now one of my top suspects. I do think it's a good look that he put so much detail into that ISO before anyone followed your advice to ISO him. I never think an OMGUS is super inspiring, but I'm probably giving a little more leeway on this one than I usually would since I do think D1 points to you being bad.

nutella thanks for the help with "@"! That was driving me insane.

You should have a good reason not to suspect me, but I am unclear who you are saying is OMGUSing here?

Sloon/TH, what was given/received last night? (IF IT IS RELATED TO JIGGIES, DO NOT SAY AND GET MODKILLED!) Could that possibly explain the no result?

It probably was too optimistic, but I was kinda of hoping we'd just get the game handed to us to start the day.

RIP DDL. Fantastic effort, especially with that vig. I hope we can bring it home for you.

I basically took the last 24h off to reset and just skimmed the thread. While I thought about it more, TH, your case at least convinced me to do my due diligence on Sloon as well as you and dunya. I still think it's a very long shot that he's bad because of the breadcrumb he left me and because he basically pointed DDL at nutella to get her vigged. However, as far-fetched as it seems, it's at least possible he made up the gift-giver role. He's still the most civ-looking to me, but I don't want to lose because I just didn't even consider the possibility at all.

My plan for today is essentially:

1) wait for TH's info from last night
2) give all 3 of you a fresh reread
3) give nutella and Speed a fresh reread
4) decide

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 7:45 pm I looked at it online and it you want to play the game legally you need to own an Xbox One, sadly.

Or a Nintendo 64, I suppose.

Bummer. I do actually own an N64, so that seems like my best bet. We'll see if I actually ever get around to it.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 7:56 pmDespite Russ making a big case on speed around Day 3, it does not appear that speedchuck ever cared or really even acknowledged the case at all.

You probably don't care about my opinion on this, but Speed didn't really acknowledge anything in the game, except to defend sig. So my case is hardly the exception.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 6:33 pm Play Banjo Kazooie/Tooie, guys. I'm here having fun discussing flavor because those games are really that good.

Is there a way to on Switch/PC?

I've been interested by them but never got around to it.

Good job, team.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 6:04 pm I'll also tack on here, since Russ has already accused me of "twisting words": I don't care about that. I have to do that to make reads. Any time I am trying to make a case one way or another, I have to ask myself on every post if I can believe that player would say those words as each alignment. If I can imagine them saying something as either alignments, I'll share my argument for reading it as scum. I try to be fair and share both arguments when they both exist. But "twisting words" is a necessary part of my process. It always is and always has been.

You're even using "twisting words" differently from how I mean it haha. Obviously, to make a case for someone being bad you have to imagine an agenda behind their words. I'm fine with you doing that to me, or anyone. What you did in those previous posts was made up a different context that was not the case at the time, and then interpreted my posts in light of that non-existent context. That's the part I have an issue with. If you're making up situations, I can't defend myself, because I'm working from reality and you arent.

I haven't yet read your longer post to see if that's the case in it - probably won't, since my focus is on TH/dunya for tomorrow. But I think the things you're accusing me of being bad for only hold up if you, for example, assume I didn't believe dunya was claiming or didn't have you as locktown, when in reality, those were the case.

To be interpreting my actions as if they weren't is disingenuous,. You're saying you're seeing who has acted most civ lately, but your posts show you made your conclusion before you made your case.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 3:21 pm

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 9:13 pm Sloonei, did you think dunya's dream was info-related? Or broader question for everyone: is there an inside thing with dunya having really strong intuition that just hits her sometimes, that I haven't seen before because this is my first time playing with her? Because I feel like there are at best 3 possibilities, even giving the most possible benefit of the doubt:

Yes.

Dunya is like the best scumhunter of the internet.

She just knows people's alignments.

That said I didn't think the dream thing was anything but a joke myself.

Oops, forgot to combine this with my response to Sloon.

Alright, clearly I didn't know this and misread her post. I rescind the point.

[VOTE: Speed.] aubergine

He's my highest-probability baddie, and he probably would've been lynched yesterday if not for dunya's intuition/claim/whatever it was. Better late than never.

If it somehow is dunya/TH, then holy hell have you guys played an amazing game. Hats off in that case, but I think we're ifnally on the right track.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 3:36 pm I've voted for Russ.

Dunya is out of the running. She has looked the most sincere in her efforts today: I get the sense that she is actually trying to read everybody, and I don't think she makes up the dream about Jack if she's bad (both ethically and strategically). Between TH and speed, I would lean toward speed. Turnip Head has no reason to push a tinfoil suspicion against me at this stage unless it's honest.

When I look at Russ, I see a player who is just trying to run out the clock on this day phase. He opened with the position that dunya and speed are bad. Here we are nearly 48 hours later and he has not budged. He ISO'd TH and came to a limp conclusion that a dunya/TH team is possible... but offers no conclusion on the possibility of a TH/speedchuck pairing. dunya is at the forefront of Russ' pairing. And she's the non-confirmed player I feel best about by far.

I also noted that Russ made a big fuss about speed around Days 2/3, but speed never paid it any mind, and Russ was all the while content to watch the Jack lynch go through while spending posts/effort casing speedchuck.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 4:43 pm

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 4:39 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 2:59 pm I just lost a game at lylo where I spent the last phase going over old posts to decide who made the most sense in relation to the other dead bad guys. I overlooked some pretty obvious evidence in the differences between the two remaining players (LC and Tony) had behaved over the final phases of the game: Tony was much more active than LC in trying to solve the game. He ended up being town, but I voted for him and we lost. I'm wondering how much that will translate here. Who has looked the most eager to solve the game since the end of Day 3?

Me and Russ have done the most solving since day 3 from my POV

I see Russ making posts, but I don't see those as active solving. He has reinforced the reads he already had. By contrast, you and dunya have expressed some skepticism of me. You've gone back and forth on each other. I sense real uncertainty. I don't get that from russ.

Do you think dunya makes up her claim about having a dream if she's mafia?

Sloon, these posts are chock-full of mischaracterizations.

**"He ISO'd TH and came to a limp conclusion that a dunya/TH team is possible... but offers no conclusion on the possibility of a TH/speedchuck pairing." You'll recall that I concluded this post while I thought dunya had double-claimed, which in my mind made her 100% bad. That would mean a TH/Speed pairing was literally impossible, so of course I didn't consider it. Now that you and DDL have said you didn't think she was claiming, I've gone back and read TH, but there's just very little to go on. TH had only addressed or talked directly about Speed in 3 posts prior to Night 3, and they were all soft defenses or town reads. Is it possible? Sure. But it doesn't seem even close to the level of defending dunya has done for Speed, so I conclude it is less likely. If we successfully lynch Speed today and he flips bad, hopefully that gives us more to go on.

**"Russ made a big fuss about speed around Days 2/3, but speed never paid it any mind, and Russ was all the while content to watch the Jack lynch go through while spending posts/effort casing speedchuck."
This is false on multiple fronts: I ISO'ed both TonyJack and Speed that day, and concluded that I felt bad about both of them, but slightly worse about Speed. I wasn't "content to watch the Jack lynch go through" - actively stated in thread that I agreed with it. Also, I misinterpreted dunya's dream post to mean she had info about TonyJack, so even though I personally felt a bit worse about Speed based on those ISOs, the difference wasn't huge and I didn't think I had a shot at convincing anyone else to. If I had been 100% convinced TonyJack was town and Speed was not, I'd have pushed harder, but you're misrepresenting my position.

**"By contrast, you and dunya have expressed some skepticism of me." You literally breadcrumbed your role to me, personally, days in advance, and as you put it, caught nutella. Would it be less suspicious if I took all of that evidence and said "Oh yeah, the evidence that Sloon is good is overhwleming. But you know what though? He smells bad, let's all put him in the POE." This makes no sense.

**"Do you think dunya makes up her claim about having a dream if she's mafia?" You said in an earlier post that she WASN'T claiming, now in this post you say she is. You can't have it both ways, dude.

Again, because of info and because of how and when you went after nutella, it's still going to take more than this to convince me you're bad. But if I didn't know better, these posts would probably convince me you were mafia. You're removing all context in these quotes and twisting my words to make it sound like I said them under different circumstances. I think you need to consider the possibility that you're tunneling me.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 12:34 pm

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 12:21 pm he'd have had to bus nutella when no one was really looking at her with the result of her being vigged.

No one looking at her? I'm pretty certain she was in several scumread lists before Sloonei sat on her.

I mean, it's possible some people had her scum in GTH or something. But unless you can show me an instance in thread of someone pressuring her/sussing her in thread in a sustained way, I don't think that carries much weight.

Full disclosure, since I already think there's a 90% chance you're bad and a less than 1% chance Sloon is, you're unlikely to convince me. I also don''t even think you really believe Sloon is bad - you said above that it's me and one of dunya or TH. However, this is your best chance to move my vote.

I actually even think Sloon is lower than 1% tbh. Not only would he have had to breadcrumb a fake role claim, he'd have had to bus nutella when no one was really looking at her with the result of her being vigged. It just seems WAY to improbable, and if it is true, Sloon needs to be in the Champions game because he's literally the best baddie I've ever seen.

TH, I guess going another day doesn't really hurt us, although I'm not sure what benefit additional discussion would have without any new data points. Here's where I stand right now.

Probabilities of People Being Bad:
Speed - 90%
dunya - 80%
TH - 29%
Sloon - 1%
DDL - 0%

If the only viable lynches for today end up being people I'm <80% sure of, I'm with you on No Lynch. If Speed or dunya can go down today, I think it's our best shot.

I mean, I guess it's theoretically possible that Sloonei pre-emptively breadcrumbed a fake role to me days in advance. Occam's Razor says he's telling the truth, so I think the chances are small.

I guess I'm willing to lose to a baddie Sloonei on the small chance he came up with that. Like if so, well played dude, ya got me. I don't think it's likely enough to put him in my POE.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 11:03 pm I never believed that dunya’s dream was role-related.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 9:19 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 8:59 pm Also so freaking weird but I had a dream that somehow included this game last night and Jack was playing in it I shit you not. Woke up and heres jack replaced in for Tony. So basically, I see the future now. Jack was bad. Let's see if that holds up too...

Ignore my vote call at the end of the ISO post. I believe in dunya' dreams. [VOTE: tonyjackprime] aubergine

Also I'm willing to buy G-man's claim to have info right now.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 3:15 pm Moved back to Tony/Jack.
MP's wagon is on track,
But dunya had a dream:
We can lynch Jack for the meme.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 3:19 pm I'm only half joking. I have so much faith in dunya that I'm not ruling out the possibility that she unconsciously solved this game.

And on that point, I do not believe that dunya would make something like that up as mafia. If there’s a reason to clear her, it’s the dream.

Alright, fair enough. I guess I misinterpreted that, then.

Color me puzzled in that case that it seemed to make the difference between Speed and TonyJack yesterday, in that case. I get people believing in dunya's intuition, but it's consistent with a dunya/Speed team. It's also relatively low-accountability; saying your dream was wrong is harder to nail someone on than thread-based analysis of interactions.

If the dream thing was actually just flavor/a fun way to word things, then I apologize. I consider myself really bad at reading hints, as I mentioned to Sloonei before, but even I thought this was definitely hinting at an infodump. It was one of the reasons I thought a Jack lynch was ok even though my thread read on Speed was stronger.

I clearly wasn't the only one, either - Sloon cited it as a reason for his vote.

Sloonei, did you think dunya's dream was info-related? Or broader question for everyone: is there an inside thing with dunya having really strong intuition that just hits her sometimes, that I haven't seen before because this is my first time playing with her? Because I feel like there are at best 3 possibilities, even giving the most possible benefit of the doubt:

1) dunya claimed info on Jack
2) dunya literally had an irl dream that Jack was bad, and dunya is know to have amazing intuition/read the future through dreams sometimes, so people went with it. (If it sounds like this one is teasing, I swear that is not my intention. I do believe some people are amazing at processing things like mafia subconsciously and something like this could happen. Just if that's a known thing with you, no one made it clear to me when you said it.)
3) The stuff about dreaming was flavor text that was misinterpreted by at least me and Sloonei, and possibly others.

TH:

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 9:20 pm Mac seems more interested in reading townies than finding scum

I've voted for him

TH placed a few different votes D1, including MP, dunya, and finally, Mac.

I actually think I missed their dunya vote D1 - in my mind, the two of them have essentially been a pair all game (which may not be fair), so I was surprised to see it. The other notable thing from D1 is that they called sig was civ, which as I've said looks like a baddie move designed to get civ cred to me, given how things have played out this game. However, I think in this case, that's counteracted by the Mac vote, which gives accountability and put them at some risk. Same for this post:

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sat May 02, 2020 5:46 pm A reminder that Mac was leading the poll by a full vote before the dogpile on sig occurred

A baddie could definitely write this to push for a Mac revenge lynch if sig had been lynched D1, but as we know, there was a counter-dogpile after. If there had been significant baddie votes in the Mac train, I could see this as clever distancing, but given that Epi and G-Man were the most pivotal votes there, I have trouble seeing the goal here for a baddie.

Net-net the D1 look is civ for me, given the benefit of more hindsight.

Day 2, TH defended sig pretty hard, based mostly on tone, and sussed NANOOK fairly hard as well. I thought this looked bad at the time, and it was a big source of my conflict with TH/dunya and me viewing them as a pair. Again, though, the theory that they were setting NANOOK up for a D3 mislynch for revenge on sig fell apart when NANOOK was NKed.

This post:

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 6:35 pm DDL/Nanook/Nutella mafia? I think it's possible.

could be bad in my book - the angle would be sussing DDL and distancing from nutella, which as luck would have it would be a good look when nutella was vigged. So I really don't know where to go with this - I don't think it's impossible for a baddie to say these things, just the NANOOK part is hard for me to fit into any kind of narrative.

The exchange with Tony on Night 2 is interesting. Tony says TH pocketed him, and TH explains why they're reading Tony town.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 7:45 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 7:31 pm I just want y’all to know I’ve requested to sub out. This isn’t and shouldn’t be considered to be AI. Yes, I know I just said in the last game that subbing out is probably scum. Whatever.

As to my reads: I have no clue what’s happening in this game.
I think there are safe scum teams (speed, TH, G-Man) that don’t require much mental energy, but I think I’ve been successfully pocketed by TH. Sloonei and Nutella could round out something with Nanook. I don’t think there’s anything worth calling a towncore, but associative reads can carry pretty far I think. Lynch one scum.

I can explain why you're towncore to me: You changed your read of me favorably at a time where you didn't have to and wouldn't have made sense to do so if you were scum. I can link it if you like, it felt extremely townie to me.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 7:47 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 4:19 am Sloonei might be bad
But I think I’m wrong
To keep pursuing THead
Who Keeps chugging along

Here's the post where TSP changed his read on me. It doesn't appear to have been prompted by anything specific, it was not a reaction to anything specific. It feels like TSP genuinely changed his mind in a way that a scum player wouldn't think to do.

I do think this is a potential scum move, but it also just fits a general pattern this game of TH reading people as the alignment that those people think TH is, as dunya pointed out today. I'm genuinely not sure if that's alignment-indicative, and would look for input from Sloon/DDL on how it fits TH's meta.

D3 does not look as good for TH IMO. Susses MP7, but then also latches on to MP's tinfoil of G-Man:

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 1:36 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 1:33 pm I actually think G-Man may be saying what he's saying and still be scum, by the way. Not sold on either way, but I'm a bit nervous with people clearing him and a lot of people suddenly being OK with lynching me instead.

I was going to mention this if no one else did. I think I've cleared G-Man too easily for this.

Which to me kind of seems like a baddie going after easy targets.

------- This is the point where I realized dunya had double-claimed. In the rest of this post, I'm going to tinfoil TH as hard as I can and see if a dunya/TH squad can come close to making as much sense as dunya/Speed. Will be trying to read TH as negative as I can and compare that against the narrative for dunya/Speed that I think fits very well. ---------

To recap from Day 3, TH:

1) Goes hard after MP, whom we now know to be civ.
2) Tinfoils DDL/G-Man based on a post from MP, who seemed to be their top suspect at the time(!), and which we now know to be false.
3) Tries to keep G-Man's info out of the thread, which could be construed as a baddie move to give us less to work with.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 10:14 am And yes I agree gman should keep his info to himself, I was just greedy and wanted to know more civs for my PoE. Plus after sig I don't trust that someone who should claim will do so but I hope that doesn't happen again

4) Asks me and dunya for our opinions on MP, then shades me in their next post!

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 3:12 pm I need to hear from @dunya and @Russtifinko before I feel confident in this wagon; I trust their takes on MP

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 7:36 pm If someone in the towncore is secretly bad, it's probably Russti

5) Went after dunya after she 180ed them, and then stopped sussing me. Looking at this in the most negative possible light, this "trouble in paradise" could be 2 baddies agreeing to bus each other in an effort to sow confusion, and for TH to pocket me. However, if they were gonna do that, it would kind of make sense for dunya to pocket Speed too and set up a false dichotomy, and it hasn't seemed like she's doing that.


Day 4, they:

1) Suggested a no lynch to go to LYLO.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 11:06 am Should we No Lynch and go to Lylo?

As someone else pointed out, going to LYLO doesn't really help us because it doesn't narrow the POE - seems like a foregone conclusion that DDL or Sloon dies tomorrow. I guess it could be a baddie trying to buy more time to argue themselves out of a hole? That would seem to benefit a TH/Speed team more than a TH/dunya team, though, since Speed seemed to have more suspicion at the time.

2) Has mentioned numerous times that they are civ and that they've made a lot of mistakes this game.

The main objective of those type of posts seems to be avoiding being lynched. Which, fair, because if TH really is civ and we lynch them, it's game over. But if I'm tinfoiling, it does seem like TH's suspicions today have been fairly reactionary. TH has given reasons for that, but I do think that generally, "anyone but me" is a bad-ish look.



Re-reading TH, I suppose I can see a world where they're bad with dunya and manufactured a rift to sow confusion. Overall, I find this less compelling than the dunya/Speed narrative above, but it's technically possible. I would be very unlikely to vote TH today, but assuming we get a baddie today I would try not to get too tunneled/pocketed.

Sorry - I'm still in the middle of my TH ISO, but I thought more about this as I was eating dinner.

dunya has made 2 claims this game.

1) She "had a dream" that Jack was bad. Please anyone tell me if I'm wrong on this, but I think that this would, by necessity, arise from some night power or night actions. Even if that's not necessarily true, though, her own language and the timing hint at it being night - phrasing it as a "dream" and posting about it first thing in the Day.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 8:59 pm Also so freaking weird but I had a dream that somehow included this game last night and Jack was playing in it I shit you not. Woke up and heres jack replaced in for Tony. So basically, I see the future now. Jack was bad. Let's see if that holds up too...

2) She has a very powerful role that, just as it would happen, would be one only a civ could have (double vote power).

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 1:51 pm i have a double vote. my vote counts as two. useful in mylo and lylo, although it's out in the open now.

I think the odds of JJJ giving dunya 2 distinct and very powerful role powers in a game with a significant number of vanillas are vanishingly small. I also don't think it's possible she got 2 powers some other way - Sloonei is the one giving out gifts, and he has said he didn't target her, and when people have earned rewards in the past they've come in the form of jiggies. dunya is lying and is scum.

Also worth pointing out that dunya's "info" came on a Day when Speed and Jack were pretty much the only viable lynch candidates, and from what I saw, it seemed like her argument swayed enough people to turn that lynch. I'd put money on the baddie team being dunya/Speed based on this alone. That said, I'll finish my read of TH to see how tinfoil a dunya/TH team would be. Initial gut reaction is it wouldn't make sense, because why would duny a bother claiming info on Jack D3 if both the top lynch candidates were bad? And also, Why would she have said to go after me "when TH flips bad" as though a TH lynch was somehow inevitable? Still worth reading for just to be sure, but going to be hard to stay impartial there.

HOLY FUCK! In the middle of my TH ISO, but I was just reminded that we lynched TonyJack on D3 in large part because of dunya's "dream". I'm aware that we did the same thing to sig on D2 based on faulty (but civ) info from NANOOK, but wow is it a bad look. Did dunya ever tell us what form the info took or how certain it was? Because as hard as she sussed NANOOK for his infodump, she seemed pretty damn certain about hers being unimpeachable.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 4:37 pm @Turnip Head @speedchuck @dunya @Russtifinko

My vote is going to be decided by your actions. Ignoring POE and role claims is hard to do at this stage of the game, but if I ask you to do exactly that, what are your reads on each of the other players listed here? Based purely on behavior/votes/in-thread actions, who are your suspects and who are your town reads? And why?

I don't think it's reasonable for you to ask us to ignore info regarding you and DDL - your breadcrumb on your role and the fact that DDL was corroborated by G-Man make you both literally 100% lock town for me, as in, if either of you are bad then we aren't even playing the game of mafia, because something has been massively screwed up. Other than on you two, though, I'll do my best. Obviously I'm town and not in my own POE, so that leaves dunya/Speed/TH. I'm not going to go back and quote extensively or (re-)do full ISOs here, but just bascially explain my thought process.

My strong gut feeling is that the baddie team is Speed/dunya, so I'll start with them. In Speed's case, my read isn't so much associations/thread interactions with others, because Speed hasn't really done a whole lot of that in this game. There's just very little to go on in general. I keep going back to this post from Mac:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 8:37 pm They're a pigeon pair of slanking wolves I think. They've both made just two posts. Speedchuck just put in a mighty effort in the other game, roles wolf here, can't muster up the energy to switch modes. G-Man just doesn't like playing Mafia, let alone being Mafia.

Now obviously, Mac also suspected G-Man here, and we know he was good. I don't think it invalidates the point, though: there are a lot of people who just have trouble getting into a game of mafia as baddies or feel demoralized/unmotivated by it, partly because the "solving the game" aspect is gone and partly because they don't like deceiving people. MP7 comes to mind in that regard, and I think nutella showed it in this game. I don't know Speed all that well, so can't say in terms of his personality, but I think it makes sense that would be more likely to be in play for him here if he just put in a heroic effort as a civ in another game.

The thing that originally stuck out to me, though, was his behavior on D2. According to Speed, he was barely keeping up with the thread. Despite that, he found a lot of time to tell people not to lynch sig. He never offered an alternate candidate, though, nor even a thread-based reason he thought sig was good. It was all just weak, gut-based reasoning, and he had to know it wouldn't be likely to convince anyone. I think he did it so he could say "I told you so" later on for civ cred, while expending minimal effort, and I don't really see a civ angle to it - if he legitimately believed sig was civ and he was too, the civ move is to advocate harder at the very least, and push someone he actually thought was mafia at best. You might remember from my ISO of her that nutella had a very similar defense of G-Man, and I think it makes sense as a baddie play.

For dunya, we've been at eacj other's throats since D1, starting when I sussed her for posting 5 times in a row and calling MP town much earlier and with much more certainty than I thought was reasonable, almost like she knew he was. I thought she was buddying him. She OMGUSed me, then immediately backed off me and pivoted to talking about Mac, who had the most votes at the time. As I looked back at that exchange just now, I was reminded of this, too:

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 6:53 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 6:23 pm dunya seems her typical self
but she's not firmly on my town shelf
because I know she can be wily scum
but she's not under my voting thumb

Does anyone have some berries and whipped cream I can put on this waffle?

I should've pressed harder on this at the time and also picked up on it once again when I ISOed nutella. It's so waffly and reads to me like a baddie teammate soft-defending another before suspicion on them really picks up, but leaving wiggle room to distance later if necessary.

Beyond nutella, though, 4-5 other people had gut civ leans on her, and then Epi said he thought her going after Mac and Sloon was town-dunya behavior. I also think people were kind of tuning out our exchanges by now. Night 2, I thought she was trying to set up an easy NANOOK revenge lynch:

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 2:06 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 1:32 pm if nanook is bad, he's good to lynch. if he's town, then everything he did was not a team-effort or actually inspired by scum hunting reasons but a personal vendetta which is anti-town and i have issues with that.

Can you see how this sounds a little bit like "sig is either bad and won't claim because he was caught, or not bad and not trying hard enough for me, therefore I am ok with lynching him either way"? You're making the argument you're going after NANOOK for.

but that theory fell apart when NANOOK was NKed. And then, when I ISOed nutella, she came out looking a bit better overall. So I was feeling less certain, and wondering if I actually had been tunneling her as others implied.

Then in yesterday's lynch, I started suspecting her more primarily based on her interactions with Speed, who I thought was bad. As I said at the time, she:

1) hard defended Speed
2) said "ah, whatever. not my job to defend someone who isn't playing. I'm voting Speed"
3) voted speed
4) changed her vote to Jack without announcing it

And then today, she went from fully defending TH and townreading him when I had some testy exchanges with dunya/TH in thread, to saying that now she thinks he's my baddie teammate. I think over yesterday and today, the progressions on her reads have made no sense. I do, however, think they fit with baddie motivations. I think she and Speed realized it was MYLO, and then she tried to find who she thought would be the weakest link for a mislynch and go after them. She clearly landed on TH.

When I asked for explanation recently, I did think parts of her explanation made sense. However, as I reread now, I'm coming back to this

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 2:30 pm

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 2:19 pm Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates?

i don't know, russ. i don't know. TH, speed and you. that's my POE. i think TH looks bad from his early beef with Mac, to his interactions with nutella and Tony/Jack, and how he's voting for me because i'm voting for him (and if speed is his teammate and not you, it makes sense why he picked me since you've been adamant about my lynch since day 1

dunya adamantly did NOT suss TH for their beef with Mac, nor their interactions with TonyJack. Like I said, she's taken their side in thread multiple times. This makes it sound like there was a suss that built slowly over time by observing irrational behavior from TH, but that's revisionist history - we observed her sticking up for them in thread.

Admittedly, my read on dunya at this point is based partly on her strange behavior around the Speed lynch, and I think large parts of this narrative only work if they're a baddie pair. However, I'm trying to keep in mind that it's still possible I'm tunneling her and TH is the other baddie. I'm going to reread TH this evening, and I'll do my best to keep an open mind about it, but it may be tough because I do feel pretty strongly about the other two.

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 2:30 pm

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 2:19 pm Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates?

i don't know, russ. i don't know. TH, speed and you. that's my POE. i think TH looks bad from his early beef with Mac, to his interactions with nutella and Tony/Jack, and how he's voting for me because i'm voting for him (and if speed is his teammate and not you, it makes sense why he picked me since you've been adamant about my lynch since day 1). he's not "gamesolving" right now and at this stage, i feel like TH should be. he trusts you because you're not voting for him. if i believed that he actually suspected me, i might bring him around. he said something to mac when mac was suspecting him and he did a hard NO U on him "if you're town work with me" and he keeps saying that to me. it actually does the opposite of inspiring confidence in him whenever he does say that. either i trust him, or he thinks i'm bad. nah. that's not how mafia works for me. tell me why you're town and show me your eagerness to sort people out then i'll sway.

....parts of this actually make sense to me. I still don't understand your 180 on Speed and think it's baddie-teammate indicative, but I'll read through TH again and see if a Speed/TH team fits.

I'm Kazooie and am vanilla.

Agree that if true, dunya's claim is never a baddie role. However, for exactly that reason, I also don't think we can believe it. No evidence of it being true because she hasn't voted in a close lynch vote yet, and it's exactly what a baddie would claim to stay alive one more day. I think both Speed and dunya are bad and showing a burst of energy here to win the day. Brilliant baddie move to claim a vote-manipulation role in MYLO.

Linki: I actually totally sympathize wiht you not reading MP's post, dunya. I am a hardliner against infor-dumping when it isn't allowed. Confused by the first part of your post, though - are you saying you no longer think TH and I are teammates? Or that you still think we are and if so you just won't trust TH after this game?

I want to note too that dunya and Speed both independently brought up MYLO unprompted in recent posts. Still not totally sure that's the case, but I think they realized it overnight and are going all out now, and that explains her change in behavior.

Well, I thought I posted this when I was on earlier today, but apparently it didn't go through.

dunya wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 9:15 amdid you read the thread? everyone i iso'd individually made me feel worse about TH tbh, starting with sloonei's iso of nutella. i have no doubt in my mind they are bad now. and i'm pretty sold on you being their teammate. if jack had flipped bad, TH coulda been good.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 10:43 amI feel like I let dunya down somehow cuz she did a complete 180 on me. Dunya what did I do?

Clearly I have read the thread, and clearly I'm not the only person confused about where this came from.

Calling it now: baddies are dunya/Speed. I now think dunya was buddying TH and is flipping on him now that victory is in sight.


Since then: RIP G-Man. dunya's sudden flip on TH feels to me like a baddie lashing out, and her reasoning for it is weak. TH "hasn't done anything" lately?? Why are you being dismissive of TH now? Where's the dunya who reached out to TH when they were getting frustrated and felt like no one was hearing them and said "I hear you?"

It feels like scum dunya has realized if she can lead a mislynch today she wins, so she moved to flip on the easiest remaining townie to mislynch and can't come up with a reason to justify it. With Sloon and DDL confirmed, Speed being her teammate, and her suspicion of me not taking off, TH is her only option left.

dunya wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 5:46 pm It's funny if we look at nutella russti and TH. They've all scum read 1 of them and townread 2.

If you're trying to make a point, make it. Are you saying the baddie move is to townread yourself and one teammate and scum read the other? If so, what did your GTH with Speed and nutella look like? This is being presented as helpful analysis, but it's just weak shade hoping someone else picks it up and runs with it.

FWIW, I also don't buy the fake "if I'm gone after tonight" bit. The POE for today is 4 people, max, and dunya knew she was one of them. No baddie in their right minds kills her last night. Trying to act like a worried civ.

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 10:15 pm

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 10:11 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 7:48 pm well fuck it. im sorry jack, really fucking sorry. sorry tony.

i wish i could vote TH out right now.

Wait what?

More detail on how you came ot this conclusion, please. I have felt like I've been fighting you and TH in thread all game long, so for you to get this read on him suddenly shatters my worldview.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 9:38 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 8:18 pm @speedchuck can you give us something to work with like, a role claim even at this point. your character name? who do you suspect? why?

I can give both, if people want. But I don't think it's that helpful. I'll give more thoughts tomorrow unless I get vigged.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 8:23 pm Dunya seems to have lost her cool. She's acting a little manic, that's my shtick not hers :P

I'm not bad, and if I make it through the night I'll do everything I can to prove it.

Sorry Jack (and MP)

Same.

Uhhhhhh, what now??????? Is this a baddie slip?

Pretty obvious, Russ. TH is in the POE. No way he gets NK’d tonight unless DDL blasts him. Not sure how you didn’t put two and two together.

Yeah, I guess so. My gut reaction was that the avergae civ is more worried about an NK, but with a small-ish suspect pool this makes sense.

I think G-Man doubting Sloon's case here is yet another bad look from him. Also, it looks like a potential NO U since Sloon recently pointed out that G-Man's claim could be fake.

dunya wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 7:48 pm well fuck it. im sorry jack, really fucking sorry. sorry tony.

i wish i could vote TH out right now.

Wait what?

More detail on how you came ot this conclusion, please. I have felt like I've been fighting you and TH in thread all game long, so for you to get this read on him suddenly shatters my worldview.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 9:38 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 8:18 pm @speedchuck can you give us something to work with like, a role claim even at this point. your character name? who do you suspect? why?

I can give both, if people want. But I don't think it's that helpful. I'll give more thoughts tomorrow unless I get vigged.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 8:23 pm Dunya seems to have lost her cool. She's acting a little manic, that's my shtick not hers :P

I'm not bad, and if I make it through the night I'll do everything I can to prove it.

Sorry Jack (and MP)

Same.

Uhhhhhh, what now??????? Is this a baddie slip?

RIP TonyJack and MP

dunya wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 4:57 pm yeah, broken record and all that. it's been fun playing with you, really. i hope you know that. and i look forward to playing more games with you.

The feeling is mutual.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 6:07 pm Have we given proper consideration to the possibility that G-man's claim is made up?

I hadn't considering all the other ones have been solid so far. His was the most roundabout, though, and he came out looking worst from my nutella ISO.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 6:10 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 6:07 pm Have we given proper consideration to the possibility that G-man's claim is made up?

Yes.

I'm still wrapping my head over how fucking Mr. Vile has a major role.

And continue to thing it's a good idea for G-Man to reveal who the vig is in order to confirm himself. The vig themselves could just say out loud that they are for/against it, if they haven't already.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 6:31 pm Ok guys sorry for indirectly causing this.

If I ask anyone to claim your role/character, please don't claim your method for obatining the jiggies, thank you.

Honestly, at this point I just think you should stop asking people to claim altogether. Most importantly at night. I get claiming during the day if there's a potential pivotal vote coming, but doing it at night just paints targets on people's backs and help mafia figure out power roles. I don't see any world where pushing so hard for this helps us.

I guess the big question for me tomorrow is, do we go for the obvious lynch (Speed) again. It hasn't worked for us so far this game, but someone has to be bad, and I still can't get over the soft sig defense being more or less his only contribution. G-Man would be my other top contender - his claim had stopped me going after him, but Sloonei is right that it could be fake.

For others, I still wish someone would engage me on dunya, and DDL's insistence on claiming has me feeling bad about him.

Linki: Hmm..so that makes my top baddie reads for tomorrow 2 pairs. Either G-Man and DDL are two ballsy as hell baddies, or it's dunya/Speed. My nutella ISO had DDL looking pretty good for suspecting her when there wasn't much pressure on her, so I'd lean the latter.

Double linki: Sloonei I've been arguing dunya is bad all game. Maybe someone engage those points?

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 11:01 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 10:04 pm

Russtifinko wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 8:24 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 3:41 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 3:30 pm I don't remember which game it was, but I think there was an instance where town Sig lost a game on purpose to make a point about being against claiming. Or maybe it was someone else (this happens a lot in the other forum I play in). Correct me if I'm wrong.

If this is true it makes me paranoid, though. There is a good chance nanook is telling the truth but his info isn't really conclusive, and Sig is gonna self destruct to make a point anyway.

Notably Nanook also faked a red peek in a recent game (the baseball one), though that person happened to be indeed mafia But from what he's said here I believe he's not lying this time and he is admitting that his info might not be 100% reliable. But yeah you make a point that goes against Nanook's plan to policy-lynch sig for refusing to claim.

I've been known to take pretty hard-line stances against claiming and infodumping, too. But it's in the rules for this game, so to the extent it helps us, we might as well. We're at a disadvantage to begin with because of post count restrictions, so we should use every (legal) advantage we have.

I wouldn't call it a policy lynch, though. Even with NANOOK's admittedly not-certain infodump, I probably wouldn't vote sig today if that was the only thing against him. There's also yesterday's lynch vote, which looked like a save to me, and his reaction to this read, which has been to stubbornly not claim and then make a bunch of false statements.

G-Man, I'm gonna ISO both you and Sloonei, with as open a mind as possible, but I probably won't get around to it until tomorrow at least. He pinged me very early on, and you're now one of my top suspects. I do think it's a good look that he put so much detail into that ISO before anyone followed your advice to ISO him. I never think an OMGUS is super inspiring, but I'm probably giving a little more leeway on this one than I usually would since I do think D1 points to you being bad.

nutella thanks for the help with "@"! That was driving me insane.

You should have a good reason not to suspect me, but I am unclear who you are saying is OMGUSing here?

As far as I saw, G-Man came at you first, so that would make you the OMGUSer. However, as I said, I think G-Man is bad, so take that with a big grain of salt.

Also, I am notoriously bad at hints. What's the reason not to suspect you? (If I'm likely to come across it when I ISO you then you don't have to bother right now though.)

hahahaha, this all makes sense now, Sloon.

I actually hadn't thought of the possibility of MP's power claim being right but alignment being wrong. Something to keep in mind.

As I said, personally I feel stronger about Speed based on his lack of non-sig-defending content on D2. Just read as if he was trying to get cred without putting in any real effort. I think TSP gave a bit more in terms of reads per post, and Jack has been in the latter half of the day. I can see how people feel the same lurking baddie vibe about TSP with him subbing out, though, and it still seems completely possible to me that both Speed and Jack are bad, so if no votes change, this seems fine too.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 2:55 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 1:10 pm

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 1:07 pm Probably you since you switched your vote after I threatened to hammer jack

i dont like to be shouted at. jack shouted at me ok? he told me to f off ok?

also there's no hammering in this game. feel free to put your vote on jack tho.

When did he yell at you? In btsc?

Wait TH, are you saying you think dunya is bad? And is that in general or conditional on a Jack scum flip? Asking because I thought you had her locktown

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 3:19 pm Why the hell is Dunya both teamed with me according to @Turnip Head and Speed according to @Russtifinko but also consensus town?

FWIW, I know Dunya isn't scum with me and with Speed probably dead in the water and Dunya being garbo at reading me, her pushes on me over Speed aren't really alignment indicative.

FWIW, I've been after dunya since D1. But most people decided her tone was town, and one person (I think Sloonei?) raised a point in her favor. I think people have basically decided I was tunneling and to ignore me, which I can't really blame them for. We seem to come to opposite conclusions on everything and have fought a fair bot, so people tune it out. I also haven't played with her before so dont know her style/meta as well as the people saying she gives town vibes.

I am curious about how TH thinks she's bad with you, though. By my count, she's:

1) hard defended Speed
2) said "ah, whatever. not my job to defend someone who isn't playing. I'm voting Speed"
3) voted speed
4) changed her vote to you without announcing it

I guess I don't understand why your teammate would do that.

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 3:52 pm However, because I am G-Man, and I can tinfoil with the best of them, I can envision a world where nutella and Sloonei are baddie teammates, using their verbose natures to lead the thread post-wise, and setting themselves on opposite sides of one or two players in order to feed the other cred when one side crumbles and gets lynched.

But that's a lot of hard work to pull off in small, quieter sort of game. Why would baddies try to be that cute when they can probably coast for two or three days? I could see both nutella and Sloonei trying it for the show-off factor, but it's a bitter pill to swallow from a 30,000-foot level.

But nutella wasn't verbose this game, at least not compared to what I remember from playing with her way back when. Personally, I think it's more likely the baddies haven't been steering much and instead let us do their dirty work for them. I don't see a world where Sloonei is bad right now, even tinfoiling.

Wait, dunya just switched over to Jack without calling it. And the vote is listed before Speed's, which happened earlier. WTF?