The Syndicate

That was a real nail biter

Mac never officially declared the game over.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:20 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:17 am When did you check me?

2 nights ago

What were all your checks?

just over 2 weeks from signups opening to game end. that's some efficient mafia.

I thought Epi was the cop after Day 1. I reasoned that he would never play the way he was playing if he was bad, and that his ultra lazy shtick (early on) was a gimmick to avoid being nightkilled while he quietly ID'd everyone.

well since everyone else is posting...

Excellent job, [mention]sabie12[/mention]. I doubt I would have had your patience, but you pulled that claim out at the perfect time and kept yourself out of harms way long enough to lock it down.

Good game to everyone. Dom had me fooled for sure. Thanks for hosting, Mac.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 4:55 pm Mmmm

Fascinating.

What is fascinating?

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:16 am mates if nutella not cracking the shits at my piss up of a suspicion until everyone else did isn't proof enough that she's a crook then i may as well just be a headless chook

town nutella is better than that

I understood about 40% of these words, but I’m willing to say that if nutella is bad then quin is not.

But yes, those big words are big red mark on nutella. Even without the lack of development of any read on Michelle, that post alone would be enough to make her a suspect.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:54 am nutella made the same mistake Michelle made. Her accusation against me depended upon Michelle being bad, and therefore she knows Michelle was bad.

I already made this point on page 694 of my report, didn’t you read the full document?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:16 am

sabie12 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:14 am Sorry I wasn't around for end of day I was playing d and d. Glad we got a good result!
I feel like we need to hear more from quin LC and DF. Quin and LC especially seem to be putting little effort and not making a lot of sense with some of their posts. oh and lady if she ever decides to play this game.
I have to sleep but I'll be around as much as I can be.

My wife and I used to play S & M.

Too bad she doesn't have D & D.

I uh, don't know what to do with this information.

Updated rainbow with those interactive reads fresh in my mind:

Epignosis
DFaraday
Dom
sabie
G-man
The Player slot occupied by Lady LambdaDelta
Quin
Long Con
nutella

Last but not least, Sabie & Michelle

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:31 pm I might as well look at sabie's vote as well.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:33 am I have suspicions on all three of the people with votes. In looking through Tony's posts a lot of his focus is on jack. He makes it a point to say "if I'm nightkilled jack is scum" and that he needs a few days to figure him out subtle ways of saying dont lynch me im town without actually saying it. When he was mafia in the past his main focus of discussion was his own teammates so if they got killed off he could be like see I'm not bad. Ive seen jack do this as well. Also his post making it a point to say how many mislynches we can have was a little sketchy. I see a lot of fair points on him and he hasnt done much to counteract these points.

Jack I've expressed my suspicion on him. There's a fair amount of back and forth discussion on him but I'm still leaning towards thinking he is mafia.

Nutella can be very difficult to read as she does often follow the waves of the thread but her response to things so far hasn't made me feel confident about her being town.

This day 1 is hard there are fair points on all three. Voting tony as I feel worst about him and his efforts thus far.

I notice sabie seems to support Michelle's point about Tony's lynch math being "sketchy", but I continue to not know why that is the case. Sabie, what did you find suspicious about Tony counting the number of mislynches? And how does this lynch change the way you see Jack and nutella, if at all?

Michelle is not directly involved here, but sabie seems to pursue the same angle of suspicion against Tony as Michelle on Day 1.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:05 am I actually just suck at this game. I was not suggesting that nutella wanted to take them out because they suspected her. I thought nutella was suspicious from the beginning. Both jack and Tony had suspected her so I put my vote there for now. I was more so saying maybe she's worth another look since both of them seemed pretty confident she was bad and she was the main suspicion that both of them shared. Apparently, that point didn't make sense to anyone, but me.
The suspicions on michelle make sense and people have good points on her. She was another one I was going to look at.

She vaguely agrees with unspecified arguments against Michelle.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:10 pm Sorry all didnt mean to be all crazy about everything. I just get frustrated sometimes. Not anyone's fault. I'll come back to this a little later when I'm not all stressed from work stuff.
In response to sloonei I've been town reading him and gman for thier efforts in trying to get discussion going and make cases.

LC seems to be putting in little effort this game so I'm not sure about him. I thought he usually did more but maybe that's his usual? I recall his reasoning for tony suspicion being because sloonei said so. Michelle kind of just says a few things here and there without really saying anything. I think she definitely could be bad. And I thought nutella was sketchy initially but no one else seems to agree with that so.

I don't know if I've seen enough from quin or dom to think anything of. Definitley nothing on lady? She had like one post?
DF is trying to participate at the urging of jack so good on him for that.
Epi is just kinda throwing votes around wherever he feels like.

This is a brief reason for suspicion against Michelle. I can't do much with it, but I appreciate that sabie at least attempts to take a stance on every player in this post. Michelle is clearly in the negative pile.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 pm Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

She votes for Michelle here. I thought Michelle's response to this post looked like a mafia member searching for a way to build up to a case against their accuser, but that never really materialized. Regardless, my response is a favorable one for sabie.

Given that sabie was the primary counterwagon to Michelle, and that each of them went somewhat aggressively after the other, I am inclined to read sabie as town. It is not impossible that they simply ended up being the two main suspects, but seeing as there was absolutely no resistance to the idea of lynching one or the other of them today, I find that to be even less likely. I'm willing to call sabie a town read for now.

Quin & Michelle

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:49 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:43 am

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:39 pm nah, jack is fair dinkum right now.

google said you think Jack is honest, is that correct?

nah yeah he's a good bloke i reckon

Just confirming that this exchange still exists. I don't know what to do with it. It's an interaction. It's casual but on-topic.

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:47 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:40 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:34 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:45 pm Michelle and Quin are teammates.

yeah nah, been on the goon have ya?

Oh hello. Talk about why this theory is incorrect, if you could.

no. it's shit.

This also exists. Quin would engage with it no further. I think the theory can be picked back up now.

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:14 am probably not gonna be here for eod, so [VOTE: nutella] aubergine. sloonei would also work. night.

This vote is totally isolated. No one else was on nutella. It doesn't seem like Quin really had a grasp on what was happening today. As such it is difficult to make any judgments here. He's a player in this game who has offered a few scant opinions on isolated topics. He does not seem to possess a comprehensive view of this game and has no meaningful interactions with Michelle. So... suspect by absence of reasons to not be a suspect.

nutella & michelle

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:51 pm Tony's entrance is ehhhh

G's is good if a little heavy-handed but I respect that he wants some meta. G-Man Michelle tends to ask people a lot of questions (kinda like juliets actually now that I think about it). LLD I've only played with once and the game is still going so I probably shouldn't talk about it. Tony and sabie I've played with a handful more times but couldn't really give you much specific description of their styles, I think they both vary a fair amount.

Quin is schooling the rest of us on the aussie slang. Idk if I'll even try. Uh, who's coming to my sausage sizzle?

nutella kicks things off with a non-judgmental assessment of Michelle's perceived habits. Okay.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:02 pm I don't know how to read anyone lol. I feel weirdly confident in my ability to read Michelle despite only having played with her 4 times, while I am so uncertain on the people I've been playing with for years

This is a complicated post. Would Mafia #1 proclaim their confidence at reading Mafia #2 right off the bat? That's setting yourself up for danger down the line. Going off memory (I'll find out soon enough), nutella never seemed to settle on a strong read of michelle one way or the other, so this initial statement is not borne out in the present game, but that does not necessarily mean that it came from a dishonest place.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:13 pm I also have identified a specific town tell from Michelle from the few games I have played with her, will see if it happens

I'd raise the same point as above, but this time we're cranking it up to 11. If nutella is michelle's partner then she's practically begging us to choose a wine glass. I am inclined to say that the potential benefit of posts like this is too obscure to outweigh the potential harm.

She takes a firm anti-Tony stance toward the end of Day 1, in support of Michelle (and myself). Noted.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:21 pm I don't think I've quite seen the specific thing I was referring to from Michelle, but I feel okay about her in general. Her questioning and reads look pretty typical.

Here we return to the Super WIFOM. This read is a bit of a shrug so I can't give nutella too much credit for it. In spite of her previous claim of confidence in reading Michelle, she's produced no read on Michelle. Here is another shrug. Here is a generic prod.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:33 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:03 am nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

The bottom paragraph feels a bit limp, as though nutella is the one who knows Michelle will flip bad.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:41 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:35 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 am See that big thing I enlarged? Where I come from, we call that "horseshit."

In order for this to be correct, Michelle has to know Sloonei is a civilian.

Oops.

Since you are paying attention nutella, talk about this.

Could be something. Could be that she's just working from a townread of Sloonei and seeing potential pocket behavior. I've definitely done similar things as town, it doesn't require TMI to see things like that if you have the corresponding read biases on those players.

I'll take it into consideration though. Michelle could be scum here. I don't feel too strongly about her yet.

I am noticing a trend. If I were asked to summarize nutella's handling of Michelle on Day 2 in a word, I'd say timid. She looks like she's afraid to commit to or say anything significant about Michelle. Where's the fire and the spice we're all so used to seeing from nutella?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:43 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:36 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:33 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:03 am nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

Why do you townread her?

It's still not a strong read but her tone sounds genuine and solvey in a way I'm used to Michelle being, like asking lots of nitpicky questions and focusing a lot on exchanges with players she suspects. She can get kinda tunnelly which might be why you didn't like her Tony progression while I thought it was consistent with her town style.

mmm, this might have described Michelle early on Day 1, but not so much late in that phase, and definitely not at all on Day 2.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:14 pm I feel okay about michelle's response. Staying on sabie to hopefully keep eod interesting

Why?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:02 pm So... Quin/LC w/w anyone?

[VOTE: quin] aubergine what the heck let's see

She votes for Quin after I'd moved my pair of votes to the red headed australian. She stuck there til the end of the day.

I feel worse about nutella than anyone else I've look at so far in this exercise. The most positive point in her favor is her early assertions that she feels confident when reading Michelle, but that is largely (though not completely) nullified by her later inability to produce a read on her. It felt at times on Day 2 like nutella was afraid to offer a read, and she focused more scrutiny on the alternative wagons throughout the day. Not Good.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:34 pm Sloonei, in the wake of doing what you're doing, do you really pay attention to how many posts a member has? I mean Jesus.

I just wanted to give you something to feel special about, Robin.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:38 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:24 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:56 pm The top exports of Australia are Iron Ore ($48.2B), Coal Briquettes ($47B), Gold ($29.1B), Petroleum Gas ($20.3B) and Wheat ($4.88B), so I'll keep the sabie vote where it is.

Spoiler: show

I strongly appreciate the geography lesson. What's the connection with the game though?

Australia!!

Spoiler: show

This is the extent of Long Con's interaction with Michelle. He was critical of Jack on Day 1 and voted for him. His anti-Jack stance is also a pro-nutella stance. His vote today was planted on sabie. LC has not done a whole lot and I'm bothered by the absence of direct interactions from both parties here. My only reason to town read him continues to be that I'd expect a craftier game than this from Evil Long Con.

I'd say Day 3 is "mid-game", so I anticipate we'll start to hear more from him soon.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:08 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:05 pm In the interest of time and energy I'm not going through Epi's posts. He pledged his vote to me when I was campaigning against Michelle. Then he embarked on his own campaign against her. Then he broke from me when I moved my vote off of her later in the day. If Epi is Michelle's partner he gave himself the easiest route in the world to not bus her, then he bussed her anyway. My diagnosis: Nah.

Oh boo. I was looking forward to my time in the limelight.

You're about to hit 32000 posts, champ.

G-Man & Michelle

G-Man wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:23 am Now that the game has begun in earnest, I have a few questions:

1) Can anyone give me a rundown of what's normal to expect from Lady LambdaDelta, Michelle, sabie12, and TonyStarkPrime? I played one or two games with Sabie, but that was a while ago. I may have played once with Tony, but I will have to go back and check the master spreadsheet. The other two are new to me. Are these usually talkative or quiet? How they cool, calm, and collected, or are they more emotional with their posts? I don't want their newness to me leaving me focused too much on the devils I know.

G-man puts in a request for help reading four players, including Michelle. This tells me very little. I'll note that the players are listed alphabetically which suggests the possibility that he was conscious of the presentation of this message. But that doesn't have to be significant. At all.

He interacts with Michelle a couple of times in this post in a way that doesn't look staged or inauthentic to me.

He provides a Michelle ISO. G-man seems to express some skepticism of her read on Jack, and also makes note of her heavy involvement in Tony's mislynch without passing overt judgment. But none of G-man's ISOs featured overt judgment as far as I can tell. His assessment of Michelle here does not appear to be skewed in any obvious way.

G-man then appears to spend a good deal of time studying the vote records and singles out Michelle as looking bad. I like this. As a general comment on the game of mafia, it pleases me when two completely different analytical approaches lead to the same conclusion. So G-man's vote analysis is just pleasing to me on a personal level. And I am inclined to town-read him for it.

Implicates nutella as a potential Michelle partner.

G-man wanted to lynch nutella towards the end of the day, as he felt her lynch could provide the most information. But when the votes shifted he ended up as the final vote on the Michelle wagon. He could have forced a tie with Quin, though that would have been a bizarre move. And there is nothing else in here which sets off any alarms, so I am not inclined to look unfavorably on G-man's late-day philosophy. I feel good about him. That's becoming a theme in this exercise.

In the interest of time and energy I'm not going through Epi's posts. He pledged his vote to me when I was campaigning against Michelle. Then he embarked on his own campaign against her. Then he broke from me when I moved my vote off of her later in the day. If Epi is Michelle's partner he gave himself the easiest route in the world to not bus her, then he bussed her anyway. My diagnosis: Nah.

Dom & Michelle

Dom wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:12 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:23 am G-man self meta is lame so I will let Jack to talk about my meta, I played with him more than with the others, as both alignaments.

I like this post.

I don't object to this. It was a good post.

Dom wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:38 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:35 am did I understood correct, Jack is suspicious because he pinged a low poster to play?

I'd like to find out if he is suspicious for doing so.

I think this post represents one of the more sensible takes on the Jack drama from Day 1. I'm also inclined to say I like the context of it as well. Michelle seems to be framing the issue as preposterous, but Dom steps in with a level-headed response to combat her implication. Groovy.

Michelle looks bad in 3/4 scenarios. Noted. Dom also notes it.

A vote

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:52 am
Michelle? I haven't seen much of a progression in her thoughts, but I generally tend to struggle to read her. I tend to empathize a lot with her with her second language struggles, and give her the benefit of the doubt in her communications if there seems to be a misunderstanding. That being said, the timing of her Tony vote was not great. With that being said as well, I do not know if her slip that Epi is picking up on is really a "slip". I'm usually one to jump on something like that and harp on it until I get my way or I'm dead... but I struggle with Michelle. I know how hard it can be to communicate with a second language, especially with all the euphemisms that exist in Mafia. I'd like to hear more from Sabie and see how she reacts to pressure before I commit to this vote, though.

This read is less decisive than I'd like. I understand what Dom is saying and these thoughts have crossed my mind as well. But when I prompted him to share his reads, he expressed nothing overtly negative about the player he's voting for, which isn't the most inspiring look. I'll also note that he has twice implied that his vote for Michelle was temporary, which could be read as opening the door to change course if the opportunity becomes available. I'm not sure I believe that angle though.

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:40 pm I'd like to lynch Michelle

This came late in the day. Dom has apparently settled on Michelle. I will give him credit here: the poll was very much up in the air (a 3-way tie between quin, michelle, and sabie), and Dom came out with a firm stance against one of those candidates above the other two.

I maintain a generally favorable read on Dom, but with the mildest concern about his mid-phase the way he seemed to shrink away from Michelle mid-phase. But the read became stronger toward the end, and if Dom is her partner then he had plenty of time and ammunition to avoid bussing her.

DFaraday & Michelle

DFaraday wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:28 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:08 am I gave Michelle a town read because the energy in her posts seemed to be trending in a constructive direction, but I haven’t seen many other opinions on her besides Tony’s failing her for her response to his mechanic chatter. How do we read her?

I just went through her posts, and noticed a lot of questions and very little in the way of offering her own views. I've never played with her that I can recall; is this normal behaviour for her?

(I spelt "behaviour" the Australian way for the game. Also "spelt.")

This is an observation without judgment, though the slant I got was negative (my initial prompt was favorable, so DF's picking it up at all suggests he was at least attempting to present an alternative view). Not strong enough for me to call it a good look.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:55 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:04 pm So you don't think the kill was a frame of me? That was my first thought, and that sabie either bought it or is promoting the narrative that I'm scum.

I think it's the second option. I actually began thinking there might be a Sabie/Michelle connection yesterday, but didn't want to say anything explicit during the night. My theory is that Michelle forced suspicion on Tony, then had to double down on it as their interaction continued, and Sabie just parroted her teammate's suspicion. Sabie's post today makes me feel even less warm towards her, since it's basically shouting, "WOW HOW SUSPICIOUS DOES THIS KILL MAKE NUTELLA LOOK, RIGHT GUYS?"

Early Day 2 DF expresses a joint suspicion of sabie and michelle. Michelle seems to be the primary suspect in the pairing, and his take on her reflects my own at the time, so I'm inclined to be sympathetic. This is strong enough for me to feel good about. +1 for DF.

His next (and most recent) post is a follow-up analysis backing up the above stance. His focus is turned on sabie and he casts a vote for her, but notes that Michelle is also a viable candidate. DF hasn't returned since making this post, but my impression is that this is a genuine suspicion. It would be a convoluted strategy for Mafia #1 (DF) to indirectly bus their teammate (Michelle) by accusing an innocent civilian (sabie) with a theory that implicates said teammate as well. And it makes even less sense to imagine a mafia trio of DF, sabie, and Michelle here. I was already town-reading DF, and that read has only been strengthened here.

Michelle's interactions

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:23 am G-man self meta is lame so I will let Jack to talk about my meta, I played with him more than with the others, as both alignaments.

G-man had asked for assessments of the players he's unfamiliar with, which included Michelle along with three others. Michelle gave a direct response to say that she would not offer her own self-assessment and deferred to Jack (town) to do it for her. I could see this as a semi-coordinated act by two partners on Day 1, but it's easier to read it as a civilian and a mafier. For what it's worth, Michelle offered a favorable opinion of G-Man from this.

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:04 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:51 pm Tony's entrance is ehhhh

G's is good if a little heavy-handed but I respect that he wants some meta. @G-Man Michelle tends to ask people a lot of questions (kinda like juliets actually now that I think about it). LLD I've only played with once and the game is still going so I probably shouldn't talk about it. Tony and sabie I've played with a handful more times but couldn't really give you much specific description of their styles, I think they both vary a fair amount.

Quin is schooling the rest of us on the aussie slang. Idk if I'll even try. Uh, who's coming to my sausage sizzle?

Geez I can't talk english properly and he wants me to use a slang I know nothing about -_-

btw while Gman receives some inputs, can you tell me something about his meta?

I'm not totally sure why Michelle is responding to this post. She's mentioned, but not called upon to say anything. She is singularly asking nutella for a read on G-man, which feels significant but I couldn't speculate definitively based on this alone. Keeping an eye on nutella as I go.

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:35 am did I understood correct, Jack is suspicious because he pinged a low poster to play?

I find this post relevant because of Michelle's apparent attitude toward the Jackwagon on Day 1. She seems dismissive, almost scoffing at it (at least that's the tone I read here). The suggestion here would be that Michelle was trying to set herself up as opposed to Jack's lynch, and thus opposed to those who were pushing for it (nutella, LC, and DF are the ones I remember being most on board).

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:49 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:43 am

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:39 pm nah, jack is fair dinkum right now.

google said you think Jack is honest, is that correct?

nah yeah he's a good bloke i reckon

This exchange exists. If Michelle is bad and opposed Jack's lynch, I could see room to suggest the same is true of Quin.

In this post she asks nutella to clarify on a meta read of herself, then directs two accusatory jabs at Tony. Her handling of Tony was what put her on my radar. G-man tells us that Day 1 mostly came down to nutella vs. Tony. Michelle hasn't offered a clear stance on nutella yet, but has had a few casual exchanges with her. She's firmly anti-Tony.
This post (in response to Dom) suggests more ambivalence toward Jack than has previously existed in Michelle's posts.

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:05 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:30 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:17 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:03 am I believe LC believes what he’s saying much more than I believe Nutella believes what she’s saying. He can gnaw on my pant leg for awhile.

please rephrase your last sentence, I try to understand it.

I’m characterizing LC as a small dog, grabbing my pantleg in his teeth and pulling. He’s “attacking” me but it doesn’t bother me and I’m not going to try to lynch him for it.

i see, you want to make him feel small but worthy ^^
Seems like you TR him for that it's correct?

Going to catch up now

She plants a townread of Long Con on Jack. It is worth noting that Michelle does not appear to have interacted with LC up to this point. This is almost like she's, ahem, incepting the idea of a town read on Long Con in Jack's mind.

This post involves sabie but doesn't contain anything substantial from Michelle, so I'm unsure what to do with it at this stage.
The next sequence of posts are her interactions with Tony toward the end of Day 1. Those posts would only be relevant at this stage for someone who's trying to establish a read on me. If anyone wants to take that up, please do. But it's not my task.

Michelle wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:26 am

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:18 am Hmmm spicy

sabie12 Michelle looking forward to your comments

also tfw df is putting in more hunting effort than me

few hours I will be at work and I will come and play asap.
AMA

Another casual interaction with nutella featuring no content.

An interaction with LC! But it's just Generic Mafia Prodv1.0

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:47 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 pm Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

I see from this post that Sabie has 3 suspects.

Me, because I didn't defend myself.
Not much time ago a silly Michelle asked villager Jackofhearts to not lynch me because I will flip green and so on (MU game).Can you imagine he didn't want to hear about that?
Since then I put lower effort in self defense and I try to not put so much emotion in the game because what I want by playing is to have fun and to keep the game enjoyable.
Again I am sorry I was wrong about Tony. But you don't want to lynch me for wrong read, but because I don't defend like you would like.

Sloonei/Epi are linked in a read I don't understand. Are they suspicious or not?

oops time out
Going to do something irl and continue after, sorry I have few more things to say at this post

Comments on sabie's thoughts but does not comment on sabie herself. Part of me could see this as a staged interaction where sabie tossed a softball at Michelle so that the latter could swat it away in a safe context. But I can also read the way Michelle gets hung up on the post as a suggestion of the opposite: Michelle saw sabie as the most viable counterwagon to her own, and wanted to sink her teeth into this post. I'll note that her self-assessment here ("I put lower effort in self defense") is not reflected at all in her Day 2 play, where she is almost exclusively engaged in self-defense. Michelle also got hung up on the point about sabie's read of me/epi and I don't think she ever really advanced or did anything with it. Michelle's final post was a vote for sabie. At that stage she had no choice, so her vote and opposition to sabie don't really tell me a whole lot.

Michelle packed it in on Day 2. Her Day 1 was illuminating in that it (would have) helped to clear both Jack and Tony, but on Day 2 she mostly just responded defensively to cases against her. I feel good about Epi based on the way he approached her when presented with a case, though I'm not really sure what to make of her extremely brief response to him.

If I have to pick a side on sabie, I think I'd lean town at the moment. Michelle's most substantive post of Day 2 was an attempt to break down sabie's suspicions in a way that seemed to be angling toward an unfavorable read.
On the other side of that, I could see a partnership with nutella here given her relative absence from Michelle's ISO. nutella has been in the neighborhood of lynch candidacy both days, yet Michelle offers nothing, or close to nothing, on her at all. She focuses her accusations instead on Tony, then later a combination of me and sabie.

In fact, most of what I'm intrigued by in Michelle's ISO is the people who are conspicuously absent: Quin and Long Con are on the periphery at some moments, but she never engaged in a meaningful way with either of them. She produced a generic prod directed at LLD in the middle of Day 2 (though that can mean absolutely anything. No one wants a totally blank player slot in the game). DF is absent, and her interaction with Dom amounts to a comment on one post that he made. I am the (remaining) player Michelle engaged the most directly with in the thread. Maybe someone wants to dissect that.

tl;dr summary:
Epi and sabie look decent.
Everyone else is not dealt with in satisfying way. The player whose absence from Michelle's attention is most alarming to me is nutella.

Neat. Interactive isos coming eventually.

G-Man wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:27 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:18 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:13 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:12 pm @G-Man Would you rather lynch Michelle or sabie?

Neither helps me much. I’ll be right back to pondering nutella tomorrow. Nutella points me to them. It’s not quite reciprocal.

Forget what you think their lynches will tell you. Which player do you think would be more likely to flip bad?

Nerves of steel time.

Michelle’s posts could be interpreted to suggest her soft supports of Jack suggest she already knew he was civ. But the also have a history.

Sabie is guilty of being agreeable to the thoughts of others too much.

Michelle broke the tie and sabie added to the lead. It’s a coin flip.

Linki: I see you didn’t wait around for my thoughts.

the clock is ticking

G-Man wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:13 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:12 pm @G-Man Would you rather lynch Michelle or sabie?

Neither helps me much. I’ll be right back to pondering nutella tomorrow. Nutella points me to them. It’s not quite reciprocal.

Forget what you think their lynches will tell you. Which player do you think would be more likely to flip bad?

same question for nutella, I suppose.

[mention]G-Man[/mention] Would you rather lynch Michelle or sabie?

This is my biggest hangup when it comes to voting for Michelle. I can't shake the feeling that this post comes from a civilian, and if that is the case then the rest of her behavior makes sense to me as well:

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:36 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:23 am You are talking about my confidence, this is a playstyle thing. I explained what I expected from him. This kind of things he did I noticed at scum. I am sorry he was villager, if you think my lynch will avenge him go ahead.

Complaining about how I am confident, your post below isn't TMI?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:34 pmJack is town.

How were you so confident?

This post is from earlier today, after I'd explained to Michelle my reasons for suspecting her. Part of her response is to throw a "TMI" argument back at me based on my town read of Jack yesterday. I am unsure what to do with this. It seems like an obscure thing to bring up in an exchange like this, to the point where I am not sure that I believe a murderous australian would have the presence of mind to recall or dig up a post like this in the heat of the moment. Part of me feels like this point is too minute to have been fabricated.
And if I receive this as a civilian stance, then I also can see the same attitude reflected in her tunneling of Tony at the end of the phase yesterday.

G-Man wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:49 pm nutella's lynch advances my scenarios the best. I want to honor that with my vote, but there's a conundrum afoot.

I am always hesitant to vote on grounds like this. If I find the player in question suspicious, sure. But I'm not entire convinced that nutella is bad, and I would not want to sacrifice her for the potential information we could gain. Lynching a mafia member will always provide the most usable information, and I'd like to maximize our chances of having that happen.

Quin wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:54 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:11 am

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:49 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:43 am

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:39 pm nah, jack is fair dinkum right now.

google said you think Jack is honest, is that correct?

nah yeah he's a good bloke i reckon

Why do you reckon that, esteemed Australian Quin? Who do you reckon ain’t such good blokes?

mate its hard to roleplay and make choc a bloc posts at the same time

i reckon i'd call the coppers on nutella for starting the DF beef against jazza, that whole thing was a pissup.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I highlighted this post earlier and it stands out as my least favorite thing in Quin's ISO. He confesses that his roleplay shtick is making it harder to participate and seems to use that as a justification of sorts. I'm not a fan of that.
He's also stuck to the same premise for his nutella suspicion since Day 1 (here and here).

Outside of that, we have very little to work with here. I am his second suspect but I see no explanation of that. He had a Day 1 town read on Jack, but Jack's gone now. His suspicion of nutella indirectly involves DF, but Quin hasn't offered any sort of read on him to this stage. His latest post suggests he won't be here before the end of the phase, so I doubt we'll get any answers out of him here. If he survives this lynch, though, I'd like to know why I'm a suspect and what he thinks of DF. [mention]Quin[/mention]

If there's a reason to suspect him that's strong enough to vote for, it's that he is willfully hiding behind roleplay in the post I quoted above.

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:38 pm I didn't like Quin's vote in the slightest.

Y'all jumped on it. I feel like we didn't have the same level of substance with him.

This is definitely true. There's been less substantive discussion of Quin than there was for Michelle. I'm open to lynching either one of them, though my Michelle suspicion has gone down a little since last night.

Let me dig into Quin a bit and see if anything new turns up.

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:30 pm
1) Long Con / DFaraday

2) nutella / Sloonei

3) nutella / Sloonei / Epi

4) Michelle / Long Con

5) nutella

6) Me (but i'm not bad) / Sloonei

7) Michelle

8) Quin / Long Con

G-Man did it mostly right.

Explain why, but I won't participate.

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:31 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:25 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:22 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:52 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:26 pm Quin is bad: Long Con or DFaraday

Quin is good: nutella

sabie is bad: nutella

sabie is good: Michelle

Michelle is bad: nutella

Michelle is good: nutella and either Dom or sabie

nutella is bad: Michelle

nutella is good: Quin or Long Con

Care to walk us through any of these, G-man? I'm particularly interested that nutella appears in both occasions if we lynch michelle. nutella's all over this in general. Do you think that points to her as a stronger suspect overall, or do you attribute her prevalence to her simply being more vocal than most players? What exempts Epi and I from appearing anywhere in your answers?

Do you plan on answering the questions yourself?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:33 pm I have not investigated players for associations between one another. I do not tend to do that until we've received our first positive ID of a bad guy.

"Explain why, but I won't participate"

Yeah, pretty much. What's wrong with that? I'm happy to see people pursuing this angle, but it's not a thing that I'm going to do yet. I'll respond to whatever flip we get when it happens.

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:22 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:52 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:26 pm Quin is bad: Long Con or DFaraday

Quin is good: nutella

sabie is bad: nutella

sabie is good: Michelle

Michelle is bad: nutella

Michelle is good: nutella and either Dom or sabie

nutella is bad: Michelle

nutella is good: Quin or Long Con

Care to walk us through any of these, G-man? I'm particularly interested that nutella appears in both occasions if we lynch michelle. nutella's all over this in general. Do you think that points to her as a stronger suspect overall, or do you attribute her prevalence to her simply being more vocal than most players? What exempts Epi and I from appearing anywhere in your answers?

Do you plan on answering the questions yourself?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:33 pm I have not investigated players for associations between one another. I do not tend to do that until we've received our first positive ID of a bad guy.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:49 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:28 pm @sabie12 if you have to choose, am I good or bad?

I've mostly been town reading you so far.

Is there anyone you suspect, even just a little, who you feel isn't being talked about enough?

G-Man wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:26 pm Quin is bad: Long Con or DFaraday

Quin is good: nutella

sabie is bad: nutella

sabie is good: Michelle

Michelle is bad: nutella

Michelle is good: nutella and either Dom or sabie

nutella is bad: Michelle

nutella is good: Quin or Long Con

Care to walk us through any of these, G-man? I'm particularly interested that nutella appears in both occasions if we lynch michelle. nutella's all over this in general. Do you think that points to her as a stronger suspect overall, or do you attribute her prevalence to her simply being more vocal than most players? What exempts Epi and I from appearing anywhere in your answers?

I have not investigated players for associations between one another. I do not tend to do that until we've received our first positive ID of a bad guy.

[mention]sabie12[/mention] if you have to choose, am I good or bad?

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:03 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:50 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:47 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 pm Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

I see from this post that Sabie has 3 suspects.

Me, because I didn't defend myself.
Not much time ago a silly Michelle asked villager Jackofhearts to not lynch me because I will flip green and so on (MU game).Can you imagine he didn't want to hear about that?
Since then I put lower effort in self defense and I try to not put so much emotion in the game because what I want by playing is to have fun and to keep the game enjoyable.
Again I am sorry I was wrong about Tony. But you don't want to lynch me for wrong read, but because I don't defend like you would like.

Sloonei/Epi are linked in a read I don't understand. Are they suspicious or not?

oops time out
Going to do something irl and continue after, sorry I have few more things to say at this post

What is confusing about my suspicion of you?

how do you understand the sentence I coloured in orange?
I see it as Sabie mentioning a suspicion towards you and Epi.

Oh I misread your post, I thought you were saying my read confused you.

Epi has decided to give his vote to me today. He apparently does not have time to play the game fully, so he’s decided to trust me and vote for whoever I vote for. I assume that’s what sabie is referring to.

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:47 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 pm Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

I see from this post that Sabie has 3 suspects.

Me, because I didn't defend myself.
Not much time ago a silly Michelle asked villager Jackofhearts to not lynch me because I will flip green and so on (MU game).Can you imagine he didn't want to hear about that?
Since then I put lower effort in self defense and I try to not put so much emotion in the game because what I want by playing is to have fun and to keep the game enjoyable.
Again I am sorry I was wrong about Tony. But you don't want to lynch me for wrong read, but because I don't defend like you would like.

Sloonei/Epi are linked in a read I don't understand. Are they suspicious or not?

oops time out
Going to do something irl and continue after, sorry I have few more things to say at this post

What is confusing about my suspicion of you?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:17 pm I don't think quin looks good but do you feel more strongly about him than you do about Michelle?

The last point I brought up about Michelle last night has me feeling a little less confident in her lynch. Quin strikes me as a viable alternative: he's been super lowkey, and when he has been around he's done absolutely nothing to rock the boat. His presence in this game has been super easy and non-confrontational. I don't associate those things with Quin's playstyle.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:16 pmUh, ok

Do you agree or disagree with these votes?

Moving my votes to Quin.
[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:50 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:47 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:47 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:46 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:42 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:40 am Is no one going to raise the question of whether Epi is pocketing me right now?

No, because that's dumb.

I'm sheeping you, as the kids call it.

I'd also be inclined to say it's dumb. But I still want the question to be asked.

Are you a civilian?

I am.

Then shut the fuck up and accept the double vote power I am conferring upon you.

I have a brutal schedule coming up and on top of that I have to work like a bitch.

Don't overthink it. It's really that plain.

I already accepted it. But with great power comes great responsibility.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:47 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:46 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:42 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:40 am Is no one going to raise the question of whether Epi is pocketing me right now?

No, because that's dumb.

I'm sheeping you, as the kids call it.

I'd also be inclined to say it's dumb. But I still want the question to be asked.

Are you a civilian?

I am.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:42 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:40 am Is no one going to raise the question of whether Epi is pocketing me right now?

No, because that's dumb.

I'm sheeping you, as the kids call it.

I'd also be inclined to say it's dumb. But I still want the question to be asked.