An Australian Country Murder Mystery (Day 4)

[Sloonei]

Town read on Dom, if that wasn't obvious.

[Epignosis]

Sloonei, is we still voting Michelle?

[Epignosis]

I see we is.

[Sloonei]

Not much has changed, Robin.

[Epignosis]

Not much has changed, Robin.

[Epignosis]

Can you tell me why I'm voting Michelle?

[Epignosis]

Or just link a relevant post?

[Sloonei]

Can you tell me why I'm voting Michelle?

Beginning of our suspicion. The key point to me is the development of her read on Tony. Michelle was consistently, but not vehemently, opposed to both the Jack and nutella wagons on Day 1. She expressed some early suspicion of Tony, and then when the momentum started to turn against him she reaffirmed her suspicion with everything he said. But I'm unsure whether or not that development looked authentic, or if it looked like a mafia member who was relieved to have found a believable vote on Day 1.

She has not offered anything new so far on Day 2.

[Epignosis]

nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

[Epignosis]

Hell, lynch nutella next anyway.

[Sloonei]

I’ve been waiting for nutella to do something impactful that I can respond to today.

[Epignosis]

I have something to add.

[Epignosis]

I’m pretty sure this is solid reasoning. I think on probability people who take lines like Michelle are more likely scum and people who take lines like Sloonei are more likely town.
Disagree? Y/N

Yes about me.
I thought is wolfy that you're doing the math day 1 because this may be a thing to pose in town carring.

Also I disagree with any playstyle comparison.

Sloonei's post was townish by itself and the mention of him being probably asleep at Eod and honestly pointing that his vote will last, I think this is villagery.

So you take my post and his post, make a comparison and find me scum? This is scumtactic from you and I notice a bad progression of you on me.

Michelle's progression on Tony loses me a bit. She deems my play "townish" while contrasting it to Tony's "wolfy" play, but I don't know what qualifies either of our actions to earn those labels. In particular, I'm not sure why it's suspicious for Tony to have an eye on the math involved in this game. It makes sense to want to know how many mislynches we have available to us. (Preemptive note: I called Tony out for the apparent emptiness of his mechanics talk, not for the mechanics talk itself).

Michelle's read of Tony here doesn't look like it amounts to much more than hand-waving. "You did a thing and that's bad", with no justification of why she feels that way.

There is so little to pry on here.
Rainbowish from memory:

Me
Jack
Dom
DF
Sloonei
Sabie
LC
G-Man
——————————
Epi
Michelle
Nutella

Sloonei lower than DF in these reads comes as odd for me, Tony never said nothing about DF as town iirc while he had a post comparing me and Sloonei.

And Quin is missing

Lot of reads coming out of nowhere, and his agenda for me is visible.

I could say the exact same about you, Michelle.

I didn’t know Quin was in the game until after I posted the list. And I really appreciate how you think my agenda is visible because of the positioning of two people. What’s my agenda? Save my teammate DF? Lynch Sloonei? Well if my agenda is lynch Sloonei then why did I say he was townier than you? That would have been a mistake.

your agenda is to shade me. I think your attitude towards Sloonei is pockety .

We now know that Tony was not nefariously angling to shade Michelle, and I don't think this was an accurate read in the moment either. Tony is being lynched here, with the counterwagons of Jack and nutella. He's hard defending Jack and advocating for a nutella lynch. There isn't much reason for an evil Tony to start devoting energy to shading and antagonizing a civilian Michelle in this moment. He would be trying to convince her to change her vote.

If I'd been awake I expect that my vote would have moved, but there's no use saying that now. I'm not a fan of Michelle's progression here.

@Michelle why did you feel like Tony's actions were "wolfy"? What specifically made you feel that way about him, and why did you think his agenda was visible? Who are your next suspects going into Day 2?

[Sloonei]

What do the big words mean to you?

[Epignosis]

See that big thing I enlarged? Where I come from, we call that "horseshit."

In order for this to be correct, Michelle has to know Sloonei is a civilian.

Oops.

[Epignosis]

Damn, Sloonei, give Robin a chance to build a dramamatic effect before you go chiming in and all.

[Sloonei]

See that big thing I enlarged? Where I come from, we call that "horseshit."

In order for this to be correct, Michelle has to know Sloonei is a civilian.

Oops.

Holy wallabies, Robin!

[Epignosis]

Spoiler: show

Who Knocked off Jackofhearts2005

Poll runs till Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:31 pmPlease note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.
You may select 1 option

DFaraday
0
No votes


Voters: None

Dom
0
No votes


Voters: None

Epignosis
0
No votes


Voters: None

G-Man
0
No votes


Voters: None

Lady LambdaDelta
0
No votes


Voters: None

Long Con
0
No votes


Voters: None

Michelle
3
25%


Voters: Epignosis, Dom, Sloonei

nutella
1
8%


Voters: sabie12

Quin
1
8%


Voters: G-Man

sabie12
3
25%


Voters: DFaraday, Long Con, nutella

Sloonei
0
No votes


Voters: None

Host/Dead/Spec
4
33%


Voters: MacDougall, TonyStarkPrime, Jackofhearts2005, JaggedJimmyJay


Total votes: 12

[Epignosis]

For safekeeping.

[G-Man]

Now that I have re-read all of Day 1, I can see a nutella save in the works based on the timing of votes. Michelle looks worse at the close of Day 1 than sabie.

That brings me back to this:

Both Tony and Jack were civvie, leaving nutella as the only unknown from Day 1. Here are some scenarios:

1. Nutella is civvie. The baddies don’t need to offer a third option when the two lead trains are mislynches. Work smarter, not harder. The Tony train was a civvie concoction with one or two baddies following the civvies’ leads.

2. Nutella is a civvie. The baddies launch the Tony train because Jack v. nutella grew stale. Not necessary, but the Jack kill could steer us toward a Day 2 mislynch by focusing on nutella.

3. Nutella is a baddie. The Tony train was started by civvies, and one or two baddies were willing to pad the poll to avoid a randomized tie-breaker after momentum against Jack stalled.

4. Nutella is a baddie. Sensing the pressure on Jack lightening, the baddies launch the Tony train in the hopes of creating a late-phase mislynch at best, and a messy situation involving last-minute vote-hopping at worst.

I think #3 comes the closest to how I read Day 1. I need to sleep on it. I think I have the vote timing down (assuming everyone used the vote tag or confirmed it in-thread). I'll share that pic in the morning too. The momentum on Jack stalled early in the second half of Day 1. It became a Tony v. nutella affair after that. More tomorrow.

[nutella]

nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

[Epignosis]

nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

No clue. I'm not paying attention.

[Epignosis]

See that big thing I enlarged? Where I come from, we call that "horseshit."

In order for this to be correct, Michelle has to know Sloonei is a civilian.

Oops.

Since you are paying attention nutella, talk about this.

[nutella]

I’ve been waiting for nutella to do something impactful that I can respond to today.

Sorry been doing stuff.

I think your criticism of G's iso was a little over the top tbh. But you quickly backed off of that anyway.

I had a very specific reason to think you were town earlier today but you're acting so jumpy idk if I should be so confident. Heeeeere we goooo

[Sloonei]

nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

Why do you townread her?

[Sloonei]

I’ve been waiting for nutella to do something impactful that I can respond to today.

Sorry been doing stuff.

I think your criticism of G's iso was a little over the top tbh. But you quickly backed off of that anyway.

I had a very specific reason to think you were town earlier today but you're acting so jumpy idk if I should be so confident. Heeeeere we goooo

care to share?

[nutella]

See that big thing I enlarged? Where I come from, we call that "horseshit."

In order for this to be correct, Michelle has to know Sloonei is a civilian.

Oops.

Since you are paying attention nutella, talk about this.

Could be something. Could be that she's just working from a townread of Sloonei and seeing potential pocket behavior. I've definitely done similar things as town, it doesn't require TMI to see things like that if you have the corresponding read biases on those players.

I'll take it into consideration though. Michelle could be scum here. I don't feel too strongly about her yet.

[nutella]

nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

Why do you townread her?

It's still not a strong read but her tone sounds genuine and solvey in a way I'm used to Michelle being, like asking lots of nitpicky questions and focusing a lot on exchanges with players she suspects. She can get kinda tunnelly which might be why you didn't like her Tony progression while I thought it was consistent with her town style.

[Epignosis]

Again I'm not reading.

Hur de dur

But:

Yeah I especially don't like the post Gman called the worst from sabie. Saying she was equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates on d1 doesn't look good at all in hindsight. And in her recent posts I still get the sense she is using the jack and tony flips to set me up as the next ML.

[VOTE: sabie] aubergine

"Equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates?"

What the hell does that mean?

How does it mean anything in hindsight?

[Epignosis]

Michelle / nutella / G-Man

Bad guys. Go get those bad guys.

[Dom]

Dom:

Long multi-quote post #1. Highlights include:
Soft support of Michelle
Inquisitive response to Jack's vote and 's his DF prod

Grills Jack x2

Long multi-quote post #2:
Continued Jack grilling
Clarification RE: stance on Jack; attempting to develop a read. Good look, backed up by content.
Disagrees with DF's nutella vote
Prods nutella
Good sequence of interactions in this post, A+ for Dom.

Long multi-quote post #3:
Supports Jack and his vote for Long Con
Engages with Jack on a discussion about nutella
Continued commentary on nutella/LC with Jack.
Dom looks to be genuinely trying to interact with Jack and to develop reads alongside him. I like the optics of this post as well.

I think both LC and Jack don’t look great here.

After a series of posts where Dom tries to engage Jack in discussion of the above reads, something has happened which turns Dom's view of Jack into a definitively bad one. He had not gone so far as to express a town read on Jack earlier, but the tone of his posts was conversational, suggesting that he was giving him the benefit of doubt. This marks the first clear indication of read on Jack in a while. The read appears to be very fluid, which is a good thing again.

Here I am interpreting "now your posts don't reek" as an affirmative town read on Jack towards the end of Day 1. He accompanies this with a vote for Tony after responding to my case on him. I commented during the night that this vote didn't feel like it carried the weight of a final vote, but it stayed. The odd deadline time may have had something to do with it. I maintain a little bit of skepticism here, but as this is the most prominent negative position I have been able to take towards Dom so far, I'm not assigning it much weight. I don't object to the vote itself, I just wish there was more to it. He would later own the vote.

And now we're back at today and the present reads which we've just been talking about. I would still like to hear more about how they developed, not because I doubt their authenticity, but because I trust Dom's voice right now and the more he can tell us about his thoughts the better off we'll be.

I think that sabie is slippery in general. She has underplayed herself this game, and I think wants us to think she's too naive to play well. She plays into the wifom argument as if that will exonerate her. I think sabie is a better player than that, and that she's deliberately underselling herself here. Why? Why would a civilian do that?
A baddie might do it to hide behind perceived incompetence or naiveté.

Michelle? I haven't seen much of a progression in her thoughts, but I generally tend to struggle to read her. I tend to empathize a lot with her with her second language struggles, and give her the benefit of the doubt in her communications if there seems to be a misunderstanding. That being said, the timing of her Tony vote was not great. With that being said as well, I do not know if her slip that Epi is picking up on is really a "slip". I'm usually one to jump on something like that and harp on it until I get my way or I'm dead... but I struggle with Michelle. I know how hard it can be to communicate with a second language, especially with all the euphemisms that exist in Mafia. I'd like to hear more from Sabie and see how she reacts to pressure before I commit to this vote, though.

Nutella? I mean, Jack's dead. And she isn't waffling as much as I'd like.

Now for some other takes...

Sloonei-- I generally haven't liked his play today, but I'm not voting there. Why? I think he's being accusatory and I don't understand his motivations. Maybe I'm just moody today, but it feels snippy and un-sloonei-like.

DFaraday-- I'd like to see more from him. TBH, he got a lot of cred from Jack being civ, but it's pretty unearned. I don't think he should be able to coast on this for long.

Dom-- supatown

Epignosis-- I'd like to hear more from, but I will lean civ for now because of his Michelle thoughts.

G-Man-- unsure. But he goes up for the 4 scenarios post.

Lambda-- Lack of content=I think she is burnt out from another game. Though-- this might be NAI

LC-- I'd like more from him. He's hiding behind "early game" when this game could lylo pretty quick. And I don't like how he followed nutella so quickly into voting Jack. I could vote for him today, tbh.

Quin-- Sigh. More content, please. Please.

[nutella]

I’ve been waiting for nutella to do something impactful that I can respond to today.

Sorry been doing stuff.

I think your criticism of G's iso was a little over the top tbh. But you quickly backed off of that anyway.

I had a very specific reason to think you were town earlier today but you're acting so jumpy idk if I should be so confident. Heeeeere we goooo

care to share?

Something about the way you were theorizing about the Jack kill. Looking back I'm not sure if I should put too much stock into it though.

[Epignosis]

Dom, you aren't going to hear more from me. I am in rehearsals. I trust Sloonei and will do so until I decide it isn't prudent.

[Dom]

Again I'm not reading.

Hur de dur

But:

Yeah I especially don't like the post Gman called the worst from sabie. Saying she was equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates on d1 doesn't look good at all in hindsight. And in her recent posts I still get the sense she is using the jack and tony flips to set me up as the next ML.

[VOTE: sabie] aubergine

"Equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates?"

What the hell does that mean?

How does it mean anything in hindsight?

tbh i'm confused by this post and nutella's.

[Dom]

Dom, you aren't going to hear more from me. I am in rehearsals. I trust Sloonei and will do so until I decide it isn't prudent.

Whatcha rehearsing for?
...on topic...

Why do you trust Sloonei so much?

[Epignosis]

I am effectively making Sloonei's vote worth two until have a reason not to do that.

[Sloonei]

Dom, you aren't going to hear more from me. I am in rehearsals. I trust Sloonei and will do so until I decide it isn't prudent.

Whatcha rehearsing for?
...on topic...

Why do you trust Sloonei so much?

I'm Batman.

[nutella]

Again I'm not reading.

Hur de dur

But:

Yeah I especially don't like the post Gman called the worst from sabie. Saying she was equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates on d1 doesn't look good at all in hindsight. And in her recent posts I still get the sense she is using the jack and tony flips to set me up as the next ML.

[VOTE: sabie] aubergine

"Equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates?"

What the hell does that mean?

How does it mean anything in hindsight?

This post:

I have suspicions on all three of the people with votes. In looking through Tony's posts a lot of his focus is on jack. He makes it a point to say "if I'm nightkilled jack is scum" and that he needs a few days to figure him out subtle ways of saying dont lynch me im town without actually saying it. When he was mafia in the past his main focus of discussion was his own teammates so if they got killed off he could be like see I'm not bad. Ive seen jack do this as well. Also his post making it a point to say how many mislynches we can have was a little sketchy. I see a lot of fair points on him and he hasnt done much to counteract these points.

Jack I've expressed my suspicion on him. There's a fair amount of back and forth discussion on him but I'm still leaning towards thinking he is mafia.

Nutella can be very difficult to read as she does often follow the waves of the thread but her response to things so far hasn't made me feel confident about her being town.

This day 1 is hard there are fair points on all three. Voting tony as I feel worst about him and his efforts thus far.

imo it's not a good look now knowing jack and tony were both town (and also knowing I myself am town) -- with three town wagons on d1 the mafia would be fine with any but try to look like they have a reason for voting one over the others

[Dom]

I am effectively making Sloonei's vote worth two until have a reason not to do that.

Why?

Again I'm not reading.

Hur de dur

But:

Yeah I especially don't like the post Gman called the worst from sabie. Saying she was equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates on d1 doesn't look good at all in hindsight. And in her recent posts I still get the sense she is using the jack and tony flips to set me up as the next ML.

[VOTE: sabie] aubergine

"Equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates?"

What the hell does that mean?

How does it mean anything in hindsight?

This post:

I have suspicions on all three of the people with votes. In looking through Tony's posts a lot of his focus is on jack. He makes it a point to say "if I'm nightkilled jack is scum" and that he needs a few days to figure him out subtle ways of saying dont lynch me im town without actually saying it. When he was mafia in the past his main focus of discussion was his own teammates so if they got killed off he could be like see I'm not bad. Ive seen jack do this as well. Also his post making it a point to say how many mislynches we can have was a little sketchy. I see a lot of fair points on him and he hasnt done much to counteract these points.

Jack I've expressed my suspicion on him. There's a fair amount of back and forth discussion on him but I'm still leaning towards thinking he is mafia.

Nutella can be very difficult to read as she does often follow the waves of the thread but her response to things so far hasn't made me feel confident about her being town.

This day 1 is hard there are fair points on all three. Voting tony as I feel worst about him and his efforts thus far.

imo it's not a good look now knowing jack and tony were both town (and also knowing I myself am town) -- with three town wagons on d1 the mafia would be fine with any but try to look like they have a reason for voting one over the others

OK.
I'll chew on that.

Let's say sabie isn't in the game.

Why do we lynch and why?

[Epignosis]

Dom, you aren't going to hear more from me. I am in rehearsals. I trust Sloonei and will do so until I decide it isn't prudent.

Whatcha rehearsing for?
...on topic...

Why do you trust Sloonei so much?

To get better any make sure everybody knows their parts and...Jesus Dom, don't you do shows?

I trust Sloonei because the mafia will kill him if he is good. They will have no choice. He will make them kill him. If he stays alive, I can reevaluate.

Spoiler: show

For real, we're performing Andrew Peterson's "Behold the Lamb of God" and a bunch of other songs.

[Epignosis]

I am effectively making Sloonei's vote worth two until have a reason not to do that.

Why?

I have almost zero time to devote to this.

I am making Sloonei's vote worth two until I have a reason not to do that.

[Dom]

Dom, you aren't going to hear more from me. I am in rehearsals. I trust Sloonei and will do so until I decide it isn't prudent.

Whatcha rehearsing for?
...on topic...

Why do you trust Sloonei so much?

To get better any make sure everybody knows their parts and...Jesus Dom, don't you do shows?

I trust Sloonei because the mafia will kill him if he is good. They will have no choice. He will make them kill him. If he stays alive, I can reevaluate.

Spoiler: show

For real, we're performing Andrew Peterson's "Behold the Lamb of God" and a bunch of other songs.

Nice!

Yeah... I don't buy this, though.
Why Sloonei?

[Epignosis]

Because he's good?

[nutella]

OK.
I'll chew on that.

Let's say sabie isn't in the game.

Why do we lynch and why?

At the moment I would say Epi or LC because they are being very go with the flow/unconcerned with actually solving.

[Dom]

"I have no time"

*Here's a minute detail that you probably missed in a player's post*

Which is true?

[Epignosis]

If you are a civilian, just ignore my existence. I'm not going to be around to make a difference.

[Epignosis]

See, like nutella just there said " being very go with the flow/unconcerned with actually solving."

DING DING DING

We have a winner.

I will not be doing anything of the sort. I am a warm body. I am not on a team, and I will still beat the shit out of the mafia team.

[Dom]

If you are a civilian, just ignore my existence. I'm not going to be around to make a difference.

You, of all people, know I'm not buying that with any coupon you give me, sweetheart.

[Sloonei]

Dom
Epi
DFaraday
G-Man
Long Con
nutella
Lady LambdaDelta
Quin
sabie
Michelle

That lowest green trio is where I feel the most uncertain. Quin, sabie, and Michelle are all suspects because their activity has produced more questions than answers. LLD is a blank space. But G-man, LC, and nutella are all players that I don't feel like I've got a firm grasp on one way or the other. G-Man is the strongest town read of the bunch because of the volume of content he's produced and the "4 possibilities" argument he provided, which feels genuine.
I expressed on Day 1 that LC's early play looked too uninspired to come from bad LC. Other than that, I have no reason to town read him.
nutella is here right now and feels earnest, but hasn't done anything to really set herself apart, and other people I trust have questions about her.

[Epignosis]

But nutella is voting sabie (easy lynch sabie) over Michelle, who essentially made the mistake of calling Sloonei good, so yeah, maybe I'm doing God's work here anyway despite myself.