Hogwarts Mafia - END

[juliets]

lol, I don't understand specifically what you guys are doing but thanks for doing it!

[nutella]

Jay you can pick, I'll do whatever, but I might also do Colin's since he somehow isn't on there and I want to investigate him more

[MacDougall]

Why do I need to do a poe when my most recent contribution was a numerical order of my suspicion. Would you like me to spoon feed you baby food while we're here?

[DharmaHelper]

Why do I need to do a poe when my most recent contribution was a numerical order of my suspicion. Would you like me to spoon feed you baby food while we're here?

Lol wild.

[MacDougall]

Here you go you big babies.

Sloonei - 5
Kara - 5
ColinIsCool - 4
sprityo - 4
Quin - 3
Lunalee - 3
Speedchuck 2.0 - 1

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Here you go you big babies.

Sloonei - 5
Kara - 5
ColinIsCool - 4
sprityo - 4
Quin - 3
Lunalee - 3
Speedchuck 2.0 - 1

I think the only way this changes the total is to bring Colin into a tie, so she’s got you covered.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Off-hand, the biggest reason I excluded Colin was the way LC handled him late in D3.

[MacDougall]

Sprityo is actually a 2 now.

[Quin]

It's possible Quin is town. His actions make more sense if he's town.

I just don't know HOW

I'm reading genuquin, and reality took a crap on my quindar

so speed, I am looking at this post and trying to reconcile it with your scum list. This post makes it sound like you are seeing Quin as civ but he's on your scum list - what am I missing?

Have you read day 4?

yes but didn't the reveal of INH at the end of day 4 include something (I'll have to go back and see what) that made Quin seem more town? I want to say Poutanko pointed it out. I thought it explained how his night action could be true. I'll go back and look.

Suppose the mafia only has one player with a patronus.

Since INH had a patronus, that makes anyone else with a patronus town.

Quin claims to have a patronus. If Quin is town, he is telling the truth about this.

Therefore, if Quin is town and the mafia don’t have duplicate powers, Quin is town.

This is the argument Pout puts forth. I’m sure you can see the problem with this reasoning.

Yes, I do. So do you think Quin just tossed off that patronus line to timmer (as quoted by JJJ) as a lie? But why? Why say anything unless he is trying to combat what speed said about him visiting LC. The thing I need to nail down is did he toss off that line before or after speed said he visited LC. It seems like he said it before but I need to check.

Mm evening he did say it unprompted it's a gambit I could see scumquin doing to come out and say he tried to help the vig to get town cred. Orrr timmer is scum with him and it's part of an even bigger ploy, but I find that pretty unlikely.

How can you see me doing this when I have never told a role related lie in the history of my playing mafia?

[Quin]

fyi for poe just take my 'speedchuck is bad' poe from before. it's 7.

[juliets]

@Quin by the time you get here I am exhausted (not your fault that your time zone is so different). If you have any further thoughts that would help on the puzzle of you and speed please put them out there.

[nutella]

@JaggedJimmyJay jsyk I'm gonna start working on the kara slots

[Quin]

@Quin by the time you get here I am exhausted (not your fault that your time zone is so different). If you have any further thoughts that would help on the puzzle of you and speed please put them out there.

Everything I know about it I've said already.

[nutella]

karavalenge & speedzeye

kara's mentions of bullzeye/speed2.0:

....unless I am missing something, kara does not mention or interact with this player slot until speedquinclaimgate on day 4. to be fair, bullz didn't have a ton of thread presence (though he was a bit of a hot topic at times), and neither did kara for quite a while, but still not great. however, the main content here is the floo interaction which is of particular interest. anyway quotes and my thoughts in spoiler

Spoiler: show

this only raises more questions

Ask them.

Considering that a vig quite probably murderified LC, I don't want to out everything without thinking about it.

what's screwy about my night action?

You somehow visited LC.

You weren't the only one.

whatever it was, it wasn't a dark art.

Could Speed or Quin be bad? 'Cause it looks like one of you is lying.

I don't think this looks bad on either of them, I think they're withholding info on purpose.

so this is kara's first reaction to claimgate. ehh? this is kind of an awkward stance to take, if one can call it a stance. neither of them look bad? when they've both been saying that the other has to be lying, so one of them has to be bad? kara gives them benefit of the doubt here in a neutral way which is not a good look in general imo and could be indicative of being a teammate of one of speed/quin.

Quin is claiming to have protected Sloonei and Timmer with Patronum last night.

Speed is claiming to have seen Quin approach Long Con last night, (Among others?)

Either Quin is lying about what they did, Speed is lying about what they saw, or there's some screwy switching going on.

this post merely restates what has happened, not really any value here

Looks to me like the whole mafia is on Speed.

....eeegghhh. I don't know if this is supposed to imply a stance but it gives me a weird feeling, and at least seems to express vague support of speed. could be a good sign, could be a bad sign.

Yeah, there's not any real reason to hide it since Speed brought it up.

I floo'd him today to see who the "other" person was he referred to who interacted with Long Con and he complied and told me.

In return I let him know that my Night 3 action was to Diricawl with him, which does not appear to have affected anything.

here we go. the main/only meat of this interactive pair. I still haven't decided if I think there's a reasonable town motivation for kara to have floo'd speed in order to find out ???'s identity, but I'm leaning toward no. this alone makes me think that if speed is town, kara is mafia. **ADDING LATER: OK, speed did say at one point in the chaos that he "may be holding onto a scumfirm" with the name so if kara saw it that way it would make sense; I thought it was generally more understood that speed was holding onto a town name though.** the diricawl use would also check out with that imo since a scum with a diricawl would probably use it on a civ, not a teammate. if kara is town, I'd expect them to use it on someone they suspect; did kara ever express any suspicion on speedzeye? no. unless they quietly developed a suspicion or other reason to diricawl speed, or I am missing some town motivation to diricawl a townread which may be possible but I can't think of one so, based on the combination of the diricawl and the info-seeking floo powder use, my inclination is scum kara and town speed.

BUT there is also the possibility they are teammates and this was an elaborate web of lies cooked up in scumchat. I haven't really puzzled out how or why they would do this in that scenario. Also, in such a case I'd assume the diricawl claim to be a lie since I don't think there'd be a reason for scum teammates to diricawl each other. I invite others to do more brainstorming on this scenario, but I personally find it much less likely than the one I arrive at in the previous paragraph.

I already gave my reasoning for diricawl.

I want to die because my continued presence is not a help to the serious players. I assumed someone would kill Speedchuck last night, who I still believe to be Town regardless of a Cop call when there were over 20 spells flung around night 1.

The floo powder today was because I found his information intriguing and believed him. If you think that using floo on a called out scum and then admitting it is a scummy thing to do, you must think I'm extremely dumb.

I'm not, I just stopped caring 60 pages ago.

The first sentence in this post appears to be untrue. I see no justification for the diricawl choice prior to this post.
Then some justification of the floo choice... "I found his information intriguing." Intriguing? As in, you want to know the name of the other person he saw when nobody else gets to know? Yeah. That's intriguing.

Also, I wanted to see if the diricawl would cause someone to fake a call against Speed, and it didn't happen. My Night 3 did nothing, just like my Nights 1 and 2.

I don't know what they mean by "fake a call against speed" -- does this mean that if someone came out with a redcheck on speed from n3, kara would know that they actually targeted kara, who is the real scum? I mean, this isn't a slip is it? What kara can you explain.

Honestly I think Quin is scum for focusing on my part too hard and I think Speed is scum for focusing on his investigation too hard and I think Jay and Pou are scum for believing Pou's one Maf call too hard.

You're all too trusting, it sickens me

After initially giving both Quin and speed the benefit of the doubt after their claims, kara now flips to calling them both scum -- so still avoiding taking a side at any point, but then most of us haven't or have gone back and forth -- and kind of getting frustrated with everyone. Meh. Could be genuine town frustration, could be scum frustration/pointing fingers willy-nilly to sow confusion/get us off-track.

Anyways, my nights and day actions were all wasted, so don't bother reading into it.

I know who Speed claims also approached Long Con, which may be useful info in the future, or we both die and the rest of you can suck it for being jerks

more frustration

Or Speed dies and is a maf, in which case, I'm literally the worst townie you have.

ok whatever

I do think that Speed continuing to hide the identity of person 2 rather than outing them when they had the chance, especially considering that he gave me a name in private does lend credence to his townity. It'd be the impressive long con otherwise.

oh wow, here kara comes out and says that they lean toward speed being town. that's... something I guess, whether teammate-y or non-teammate-y I can't be sure.

bullzeye/speed2.0's mentions of kara

Spoiler: show

nothing from bullz about kara except a blanket thing about slytherins all being bad, which is probably a joke but whatever

wow, again long time without any mention -- after speed replaces in his first mention of kara is on day 3 in a POE where kara is firmly in "Do Not Lynch" category -- teammate compatible. again, to be fair kara wasn't really around for a couple phases so there isn't really much to do with them, but the paucity of acknowledgment before the floo incident is pushing me more toward seeing them as w/w.

Most likely was given Elixir of Life I think?

That is an interesting proposition.

k (followed by saying he asked the host and elixir of life doesn't stop lynches.) could be scum performing ignorance or whatever, could be legit

this is a tangential mention, but in speed's iso-summary of Jay he describes kara's standing in Jay's INH-reads as "maaayyybe looks better" -- this is a characterization of Jay's conclusions, but I believe the disgusting word choice of "maaayyybe" is speed's own.

Another POE list where Kara is town "because genuine emotion in early posts" ok not a super strong reason blech

not a direct mention of kara but first mention of the floo chat and that they claimed to diricawl him and how that complicates the role stuff even more; yet another mention of floo partner/diricawl

Also I haven't seen Kara in most scum POEs.

They've been out of pretty much all of them I've seen what are you on about or am I on something?

now THIS is interesting. kara was green in his list, but he's calling everyone else out for not including them in any POE lists. maybe...dare I say...TMI? or something akin to it? this reeks.

Also I haven't seen Kara in most scum POEs.

They've been out of pretty much all of them I've seen what are you on about or am I on something?

kara's in my POE.

So 'tis. I just went back and checked. Nevermind that, my memory is bogus. I thought whatever scum POE I agreed with a few pages back was absent of Kara.

well this is awkward, lol

yet another mechanical mention of kara's diricawl that continues into the ensuing discussion. again, could be a cooked-up lie to sow more confusion about the various claims

I don't see anything in kara's posts that would suggest he suspected speedchuck and be motivated to use a diricrawl on him. Surely he'd have used it on Owner or Glorfiets who he suspected in his ISO.

What's the motivation to use a Diricawl on scum?

(Not arguing, Kara can explain their own motives. Just curious)

mmm the motivation to use a diricawl on scum is pretty obvious to me (he then says he wouldn't do it though bc of vigs which I gueesss makes sense) anyway I'm with Quin here, seems fishy.

more mechanical puzzling, suggesting kara might have been imperiused -- he tries to cover possible worlds here but I don't see him include any possibility in which kara is bad and tricked him

another poe list where he has kara as town (idk what happened to that skepticism from a few posts ago!)

If I were a scum with a Diricawl, I'd use it on a townie every night I could.

this is in reference to poutanko's night 1 cop check, but it should occur to him to wonder if kara was scum, yeah...??

CONCLUSION: Wow... ok. I came into this analysis thinking that I wouldn't really be able to see them as w/w due to the floo thing, but now I absolutely can see it at basically every turn. I still can also see kara as scum if speed is town, because of the floo thing. So basically kara looks awful regardless of speed's alignment. Yikesicles on a tricycle.


Jesus christ that took me like an hour and a half, and kara even has like the shortest iso. Wtf jay how do you do this. Anyway I'm so suspicious of kara now that I should try to get to the rest of their interactions but I need a break.

[nutella]

anyway lol yeah basically if I die the mafia are fucking idiots lynch the fuck out of kara

[nutella]

oh hi @karavalenge hope that didn't sound rude lol, I look forward to seeing some defense if you see stuff in my post to answer for, thanks

[Sloonei]

If only one of those two is scum, I’d guess speedchuck before kara. But I like your w/w theory for the two of them and would give it serious consideration if one of them flips bad.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

k i hunt now

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Wtf jay how do you do this.

Would anyone like it if I threw together a quick tutorial on my methods for generating ISO analyses quickly?

[Sloonei]

A hundred tabs, Ctrl + F, attentive skimming

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jackofhearts2005 and sprityo

Jack's stuff

Spoiler: show

helo checking in

Hi, Lap.

It's the "hi" tell, as seen from Infected_alien9 in DFS.

D0 has no effect on that, D1 is. I don't get how you read Lap as bad due to you viewing her 1 post on D0 as she did it because she urged to.

I didn't get the argument before this, but it's a good point. Mafia wants to make good use of their abilities. Would the bad guys really be okay losing out on a roleblock/kill/other whatever dark arts or regular ability because Lap didn't post?

Not that they have any say in it.

If Lap is laying low on purpose, is it because she doesn't know the rules? Or because she doesn't care about the scum having actions?

Jay view:
>Lap made a post because she felt the need to

My view:
>Lap did it D0, what reason is possible to make her feel the need to post on D0?? If she did it D1 then okay I can see why Jay view her that way.

Basically ^ feel free to ask me if there's something not clear from my post. I'm not native speaker

Is Lap a known inactive?

Lap’s on the quiet end and gets mislynched sometimes.

Half-defense.

Lynching Sprityo feels like a cop out.

Literal defense.

I suddenly am more okay with lynching Sprityo.

k.

it got swept under the rug like an unwanted stepchild

Poor Arry Potta.

Banter.

what? Jay and Mac and DH DONT know everything? First I’ve heard of this statement

They're distancing from each other obv.

Banter.

Also Juliets I think there’s merit in investigating why Epi was killed and who he had voiced suspicions for at the time

Okay sure. Why don't you tell us about Luna and Colin or my thoughts on Mac's thoughts on this?

Gentle sort of prod, pressure-free.

You should look and Sprityo some more.

Joke.

7 player poe
Chuck
Quin
Luna
Kara
Sprityo
Colin
...
Pou

Included in the POE. Everyone included sprityo.

sprityo's stuff

I think you're all thinking way too hard about the whole Speedchuck/Quin fiasco. There's some overwhelming evidence that nobody is even considering.

Spoiler: show

Speedchuck is always mafia

Phew, thank goodness someone said it

Joke.

~~~

Conclusion

The only truly relevant interactions mostly feature Jack standing up for sprityo, either explicitly or implicitly. They're compatible as teammates, though it isn't entirely striking.

ORANGE

[karavalenge]

Basically, I am not taking this game as seriously as the rest of you are, so I'm doing things my way. That includes a really dumb call like flooing Speed, but I have nothing else I'd use from the house cup. I already asked to be lynched earlier and nobody responded to it, I think that lynching me if Speed flips town is the dumbest thing you said seeing as I'm actively trying to make him look better even though so many people have him as scum. Not because I "know" he's town, but because I found him genuine in what he was saying and decided to speak with him privately.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Basically, I am not taking this game as seriously as the rest of you are, so I'm doing things my way. That includes a really dumb call like flooing Speed, but I have nothing else I'd use from the house cup. I already asked to be lynched earlier and nobody responded to it, I think that lynching me if Speed flips town is the dumbest thing you said seeing as I'm actively trying to make him look better even though so many people have him as scum. Not because I "know" he's town, but because I found him genuine in what he was saying and decided to speak with him privately.

If there's one thing I am not going to do in a mafia game, it's lynch someone just because they've asked me to do so. We only have so many lynches at our disposal, and if you're a civilian that would represent the loss of one of them. Nope.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jackofhearts2005 and Quin

Jack's stuff

Spoiler: show

harry potter and the goblet is the best book but the worst movie and if you disagree im killing you first

But firebender dance tho.

Banter.

This is the second picture banter post. I'm not going to share them.

Lean civ
DH
Jay
Speed
Epi
Quin
Timmer

This was the third-highest tier in Jack's D3 reads list. There's very little preceding this to indicate any progression on Quin (or any read origin). Take it or leave it.

Can’t unring the bell. Juliets is confirmed town to me.

I can see town and scum motivation for Jay, Speed, Nutella and Quin’s reactions.

Jay probably not w/w with Speed, Nutella. Speed probably not w/w with Jay, LC. Quin maybe not w/w with Jay either.

Salad-adjacent if not outright salad. Quin is named among others in a post that serves little purpose on the Quin front specifically. There's a town or a scum motive. He's maybe not w/w with me. Okay then. He expanded here and was more concrete in his separation of Quin and I.

fyi INH could have been resurrected with the resurrection stone. If scum got possession of it then it effectively became a throwaway item they'd want to use straight away, since it's no use to them as all roles flip. No fuckery there.

Unless he was resurrected by town in which case admit yourself to St. Mungo's ASAP.

Resurrection stone doesn’t pure rez in the lore and this is the first rez.

We can assume the rez is a one shot or has some sort of major drawback. Otherwise, why didn’t scum rez previously? Even if they just got it, why didn’t town rez previously?

@ whoever rezzed INH

I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed. And you're fucking nuts.

Might not have been on purpose.

[Crucio]: This spell will torture a student, roleblocking them for a night and forcing them to reveal what spells they know.

[Imperio]: This spell will take control of a student’s actions. Any abilities they use will be redirected to a target of the user’s choice. The student being controlled cannot be forced to self-target. This ability can only be used once in the game on each player.

It’s one thing to rez a scumbuddy and waste the town’s time. Meaner to force a townie to burn their one shot rez one a wolf.

Mehchanics. Boring.

I'm going to use that term moving forward.

Obviously we need to lynch INH, Speedchuck and Quin for being in the wrong houses. We can just fast forward now.

k jokes

Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing).

When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio?

So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy?

lots of linki which I will read now

Did Glor fail N1 or more likely N2? If they misdirected you into a dead player, they had to know you had a phoenix.

This means scum misdirect shenanigans very unlikely to be the cause of Speed/Quin discrepancy.

mehchanics

If Quin is bad and was targeting his teammate Long Con, what ability might he have been using?

Was this question ever answered?
Additionally, I want to ask who we'd believe more in the Quin vs. Speedchuck split if poutanko's cop claim didn't exist?
And also if there's a scenario in which all three of speedchuck, quin, and poutanko are town and telling the truth?

If these are things that have already been discussed then you can just slap me and point me in the right direction. But I'm hung up on these reported night actions right now and feel like it's the most pressing issue we've got right now.

I trust Quin more.

k why

Speedchuck just confirmed himself as scum and that his teammate is in Slytherin. Nice!

I don't get it. Please explain while I sit with my legs crossed and listen nice a nice boy.

diricrawl cannot switch actions directed at one person to another, diricrawl can only switch actions directed at the owner to another. speedchuck has maintained the first, which is a mechanical impossibility.

he also says his floo powder buddy is the reason for this, who can only be a Slytherin since they last won the house cup.

Speed is saying his floobuddy (who is Kara because she already said so) dirticrawler switched herself with Speed.

Therefore, someone who have had to misdirect Kara and him for his info to be wrong.

He’s still bad but you misunderstood.

picking my nose at these mehchanics

7 player poe
Chuck
Quin
Luna
Kara
Sprityo
Colin
...
Pou

Quin's in the POE. Everyone included Quin.

Jack offers up some resistance when poutanko was intent to clear Quin. Good call, the logic is at least sound. Doesn't mean a whole lot to me.

Quin's stuff

Spoiler: show

Hey gang! I have two votes now, LOL.

HAH HAH.

LOL.

Anyway I have no time to read or do anything; I’m at a Pittsburgh conference. Did I already say that? Dunno.

RIP my meta 5ever

Someone tag me and give me a convincing argument for a vote and I may follow you, assuming I get a chance to check in.

If I posted this, Jay would vote for me.

Would that vote be justified?

ordinary prod

Quin, would you be able to throw together a six-player POE list?

speed's alignment would change things a fair bit. So have two.

If speed is bad:
colin
nutella
jack
DH
sprityo
DH

If speed is good:
colin
jack
DH
sprityo
kara
pout

Quin included Jack in his POE regardless of speedchuck's alignment. Okay.

~~~

Conclusion

The meat of their interaction is mechanics-focused, which elicits a loud groan from me. It isn't teammate-indicative, but man I hate mechanics. Bleh. Otherwise this is a bunch of nothing.

YELLOW

[MacDougall]

Are you really going to do all of these? That's... a lot of work.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Are you really going to do all of these? That's... a lot of work.

I am the one written of in the prophecies. I am the bringer of balance. I am the harbinger of mafia annihilation. I am JaggedJimmyJay.

Also nutella is helping so it's not all that much.

[Quin]

I'm GenuQuin.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jackofhearts2005 and speedzeye

Jack's stuff

Spoiler: show

I am town tho

I'm not town. Lie detect that. It'll come back untrue.

This is a true and a false statement no matter your alignment.

Amusing observation; ultimately means little.

Should we not just lynch all the Slytherins first since they'll probably end up evil if they aren't already?

Mind your tongue, Zeye.

*sneers*

Banter.

Don't really have time to catch up before the lynch, but I can see from the Who Posted list that Nova still hasn't checked in so I will vote there today.

[VOTE: novaselinenever] aubergine

I am not inclined to give Bullzeye credit for this, and indeed it might make the vote worse. There was a time when an off-wagon whatever vote on a mafia teammate was *el classico* as the resident hazelnut spread likes to say. I cannot remember recent examples of the phenomenon, though I have hardly paid the same kind of attention recently. It's a token distancing maneuver.

Eh. If it doesn't give him any credit, it's not a very good distancing move now is it?

Jack shoos away my beef with Bullzeye's D1 vote based on what I would call a dubious premise.

If Bullzeye is so good at mafia, why is he in Hufflepuff house?

Jokes.

Speedball is a superhero who is like a living bludger.

Tell me about INH and Soneji.

I’d rather lynch them than Luna, Bullzeye or Owner.

I don’t have any reason to townread either. Sonjei’s Luna push looks like a known mislynch push. INH’s reactions to pushes on him look kinda suspect.

Would rather lynch INH or Soneji than Bullzeye.

- This is not a bastard game, so I will not lie to you. However, it is possible for abilities that obtain information to be fooled.

Screw all of last night's foolishness you dillweeds.

INH was scum. Nova was scum. DDL does not lie to us publicly, as said above. These were reveals, not cop checks or ability related info.

10 points to Hufflepuff.

Agreed.

And 10 points to GD for no good reason, as is tradition.

I actually think the mafioso MO in response to Mac's wild theorizing is "no that's stupid, what a silly stupid thing", so both of them get an eyeball for this.

It’s not a strategy. It’s a side effect.

Tell me about FE Nutella.

speedchuck

Talk to me about LC while you’re at it.

Couple'a token prods here, one of which pertains to a confirmed mafioso. I'd like it more if it hadn't been the second "oh yeah, plus this guy" post.

Lean civ
DH
Jay
Speed
Epi
Quin
Timmer

He's in the lean civ tier of the D3 reads list. Dunno why.

speedchuck

Talk to me about LC while you’re at it.

That's not exactly a solo moi suspicion. Others have stated it first, and I'm a caboose on this train.

After JJJ brought up the INH-vote-and-salad stuff I'm looking to move.

I know but I want to know why you’re voting for him.

Pressing the issue on speedchuck's LC vote. It's a decent thing with follow-up given that if this analysis were red all three would have to be teammates.

Jackofhearts2005

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I feel better about Owner than Long Con.

I was doubting Owner at the time, and buying some of the suspicions on LC/Glorf/Owner/Jack that have been made on the page prior to this vote.

Owner was linked to LC, but I thought Owner more likely town than LC. I threw a vote down to unravel that puzzle. Both have gone up in my estimation since then, as I looked back to see why I townread Owner and JJJ brought up LC things.

Can you be more specific about the suspicions you agreed with?

Continued. The tenacity of the questioning is good. I wish I could feel more heat under it though. It feels rather dead. Minor gripe.

Can’t unring the bell. Juliets is confirmed town to me.

I can see town and scum motivation for Jay, Speed, Nutella and Quin’s reactions.

Jay probably not w/w with Speed, Nutella. Speed probably not w/w with Jay, LC. Quin maybe not w/w with Jay either.

Jack dissociated speed from LC and I in possible w/w dynamics. If speedchuck is bad, then this isn't ideal. I don't understand where that dissociation came from anyway. He expanded a bit here; I am still underwhelmed.

I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe.

Which way?

Gently.

I don't know whether you're taking him out of the suspect pool or out of the townfirm pool.

And why?

Suspect pool.

I was being cheeky about his flawless “I haven’t read” logic but seriously I think Sloonei is spewed good by LC flipping bad. Jay disagrees but whatever.

This exchange would represent such boring mafioso-mafioso chatter. I hope it isn't for their sake. So boring.

speedchuck

Why did you tell Kara who you think the vig is?

Fair question.

I'm skipping some mechanics babble here. It exists. Meh.

Bullzeye and speedchuck's stuff

Spoiler: show

If you have the elder wand, raise your hand kthx.

Be hilarious if this game follows the movie continuity and whoever has the wand just has its snapped fragments.

Banter.

Shiiiit. Kyle was my transfiguration homework hookup.

And good job vig

Spoiler: show

You got rid of a grifindor

If all the Griffendors are dead, they can't win the house cup.

Then Hufflepuff might have a chance!

... aw who am I kidding.

Banter.

Why don't we talk, Colin? I want to pick someone's head, and you're the only person around.

Pick away

Firgive me if I missed it, but who are your townlocks? Why?

What's off about Jack?

Jack-specific prod of Colin. Okay.

Jack, somebody made a case on him that I liked a lot. LC? I’d have to go back.

Please find it. Jack hasn't been the presence I'd expect from him. I want to see what you saw.

I feel like this post can be insightful about this interaction. It's almost equal parts "Colin has given me a way to capitalize on Jack's laziness" and "Colin has given me a reason to acknowledge Jack's laziness" -- those are very different things. I might actually lean toward the former, which would be a decent dissociation. speed continues to explore Jack via DharmaHelper here. His language here is so neutral that I no longer even care about the previous point and revoke any credit. Fucking meh.

Jackofhearts2005

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I feel better about Owner than Long Con.

I was doubting Owner at the time, and buying some of the suspicions on LC/Glorf/Owner/Jack that have been made on the page prior to this vote.

Owner was linked to LC, but I thought Owner more likely town than LC. I threw a vote down to unravel that puzzle. Both have gone up in my estimation since then, as I looked back to see why I townread Owner and JJJ brought up LC things.

Pseudo-salad featuring Jack.

Jack is on the wrong side of a D3 POE.

Yeah sure [VOTE: Glorf] aubergine

The only reason not to do it is because I suspect Jack some, and there's no way this is a bus.

Eh?

Ew.

Jack is light green in the greenest rainbow list of all time / Again

Who is bullzeye? Bullzeye's slot is a scum slot.

That's me.

TBF I have you as town in tone and action and everything except your weirdness with the vigs and fake flips and stuff. My rainbow list was more of a POE list.

And Jack is almost down there with you. He keeps jumping back and forth.

Ew again.

~~~

Conclusion

That started okay; it was kind of up and down. The last few points on the speedchuck side though are ew.

ORANGE

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jackofhearts2005 and Owner of a Sloonlei Heart

Jack's stuff

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: Sonjei] aubergine

Hufflepuffs are wimps and he’s from a poor family.

*sneer*

I'm not crazy about jack either. He might be okay, but I don't like how he's roleplaying this vote.

What don’t you like about it?

Owner gave Jack a little early shit, and he asked for an explanation. It's a small point, but I think it's a decent look for dissociation.

karavalenge DharmaHelper ColinIsCool seeing as how Owner requested to be replaced, does that change your stance on wanting her lynched? There are better trains to jump on today. Just saying.

It probably shouldn’t. Like Owner’s alignment hasn’t changed. Where are you going with this?

Duh.

Speedball is a superhero who is like a living bludger.

Tell me about INH and Soneji.

I’d rather lynch them than Luna, Bullzeye or Owner.

I don’t have any reason to townread either. Sonjei’s Luna push looks like a known mislynch push. INH’s reactions to pushes on him look kinda suspect.

Jack would rather lynch INH or Soneji than Owner. Okay.

Something something about INH's maaaaaybe salad, concluding no more than one person in the salad (which included Owner) was a mafioso.

I'm struggling to pst what I wantto say properly, I'm a bit lit.

I'll write it better tomorrow but I'm hot liking long con s vote history and vote timing... I think it is vey possible he saved owner day 1. I think his inh vote needs more study too. He's been very manipulative with his voting strategy and his early stated aim to be hallow hunting makes for easy cover for those late votes

I'll try to lay it out better tomorrow

Well, it's very '100% accurate' that I saved Owner on Day 1, not just 'possible'. It was tied between Owner and TH, and I voted TH in the last minute. I don't think the INH vote was that late... it was late in my personal timeline, but there were a couple of hours left in the lynch, and I wasn't in contention for any Hallows that time.

Lay it out better tomorrow, Lit.

Yeah, LC/Owner not w/w.

Jack asserted here that LC and Owner were not teamed because of this brazen comment by LC that he 100% saved her. Jack has restated this numerous times since to support a civilian read on Sloonei. I think it supports dissociation, because if Jack is bad it'd look like TMI.

Likely civ
Slowner
Colin

Second-highest tier in the D3 rainbow list.

We have three replacements. Everyone tell me about them.

Sloonei is town. Sprityo and speed2.0 haven't done anything yet. I have a reason to think that speed2.0's player slot is town. I don't have any reason to think sprityo is town.

Sloonei townslipped. Sprityo has said nothing. Speed 2.0 has suspicion of Glorf and nutella, which I think is pretty healthy. I see from his ISO that he is the one who already called out nutella's Player Salad post, and that puts him a little in the green, salad pun intended.

He didn’t. He slipped he didn’t know INH was dead but the mafia didn’t kill INH.

I townread him for other reasons but this is sloppy logic that has been repeated a few times and needs correcting.

Jack groaned at people giving Sloonei credit for a "townslip".

What’s the short version of the case on Long Con?

He seems to have survived a lynch (seems because there are vote changing powers) and most of the ways that could happen (secrets) are bad guy secrets. The others are the deathly hallows. Mafia have probably made 2 kills so even if it was a hallow, there’s roughly a 2/5ths chance LC got the hallow by killing someone.

For LC to be town, he’d have to have started with a hallow or gained it from a vig kill. The chance of LC starting with a hallow is about 1/8th. The chance of a hallow moving via kill is about 1/5th.

Ergo, the odds of a lynch avoid power being in death eater secrets is much higher than LC being town.

Jack answered Sloonei's call for a case on LC. If all three are mafia, this would be a predictable opportunity arranged between mates for a credit grab. That's not the only possibility though.

I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe.

Which way?

Gently.

I don't know whether you're taking him out of the suspect pool or out of the townfirm pool.

And why?

Suspect pool.

I was being cheeky about his flawless “I haven’t read” logic but seriously I think Sloonei is spewed good by LC flipping bad. Jay disagrees but whatever.

Reiterates that LC spewed Sloonei good.

Owner and Sloonei's stuff

Spoiler: show

Null
JJJ
Kyle
insertnamehere
Mac
Jack
Bullzeye

Null on a N1 reads list. Fart.

Is Jack bad?

[VOTE: Jackofhearts] aubergine

That guy eats death.

Is Jack bad?

To the bone.

But I ain't no death eater.

The llama method says that baddies are made uncomfortable by direct statements of their alignment. It used to be that they’d have trouble denying their badness at all, but once that became an established tell folks adapted to it. Now the tell, if it really exists, would awkwardly worded answers.

I’ve read like 5 of Jack’s posts but this one had the ring of someone who was being too careful to sound casual.

Sloonei's first real suspicion upon entering the game seemed to be on Jack. I don't think this looks like teammate stuff.

Now it's a whole case

Anyone got a compelling argument for reading Jack as town?

Sticking to the theme, looking for counterarguments.

Moved my vote back to Jack because my gut tells me to. I’m still not really here.

Continued. The only thing that prevents me from slam dunking this as a dissociation is that the suspicion didn't really catch on much in terms of motivating a lynch wagon, so the context is still distance-friendly. I think it looks the right way though.

Jack's in the D4 POE

Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?

Jack - He was my first suspect based on a very minimal reading of his posts. I haven't abandoned that, but I also haven't followed up on it. I've not seen him doing anything alarming since my initial accusation, but I also haven't looked too closely. He'd be in the closest-to-neutral tier of scum reads on a hypothetical rainbow list.

He expanded on that at my request. I'm frustrated by the slight waffle happening here, though this was part of a larger post with nothing but waffles. *slaps Sloonei with newspaper roll*

Asks for more specificity from speedchuck on his green read on Jack

~~~

Conclusion

I don't think these two look like teammates in most of their interactions.

GREEN

[nutella]

I gotta sleep but I'll get around to the rest of kara's sometime tomorrow (should be pretty quick) and hopefully start on colin or someone else.

[poutanko]

@JaggedJimmyJaySloonei for 7th person, I've given my 6 before. Don't think he's scum but if you need 7

@Jackofhearts2005 another one who try to discredit me. BTW, that talk about Speed's reasoning to watch LC instead of Timmer, I've talked about it during DP. Nothing new there, you're just parroting what I said
[quote=JaggedJimmyJay post_id=494724 time=1541788558 user_id=402]

[poutanko]

Sorry that failed quote, I kept getting logged out so I tried to delete it.

[juliets]

Sorry that failed quote, I kept getting logged out so I tried to delete it.

pout, we are not allowed to delete posts in a mafia game. If you think you need something deleted contact DDL or dunya and they can do it for you. You may notice if someone screws up a quote they just post again with it corrected instead of deleting.

[poutanko]

I didn't delete/edit the post with failed tag. What I meant to say is I tried to delete the quote part from my draft (is that the correct term?) because I kept getting logged out if I add it. Ended up with part of it deleted from my draft before I posted and already posted before I can remove that part properly. I hope that's clear enough >_>

[karavalenge]

There's an empty quote in Pou's message that she was having issue removing, it's still there.

[juliets]

I didn't delete/edit the post with failed tag. What I meant to say is I tried to delete the quote part from my draft (is that the correct term?) because I kept getting logged out if I add it. Ended up with part of it deleted from my draft before I posted and already posted before I can remove that part properly. I hope that's clear enough >_>

Ohhhhh I see. Wow that's such a weird problem you are having with the log out. So annoying for you. I wish we could figure out what is wrong. Does everyone up our chain of command know about this issue? I know I have seen it mentioned, I just want to make sure the admins know about it.

[Lunalee]

I'm so behind. Thanks for the extra long night phase, DDL. So what's going on here?

[juliets]

I'm so behind. Thanks for the extra long night phase, DDL. So what's going on here?

Jay and nutella are doing an interactive spreadsheet to map out who looks bad. Then town is going to work the spreadsheet as a group.

There is no resolution to the Quin v. Speedchuck issue. At least in my opinion. speed has a different opinion and so does Quin.

DH doesn't seem to want to participate anymore, hopefully he will change his mind.

There's a lot of other stuff but those are my highlights.

[Lunalee]

Somebody else propose things for me to naysay.

Mac is scum because he farted on the vig kills.

Sprityo is town because he doesn't feel any duty to put forth full effort for his team.

Sloonei is town because Owner was town.

Colin is scum because of how quickly the Glorf wagon picked up when the lynch was between Colin and Long Con. (I know this one paints me in shadow and I don't care.)

Have fun.

Poutanko claimed she copped Colin, and he was town, right? And she copped you and you're scum. You say it is exactly opposite from what she said. And yet you still believe she is town? If you are indeed town, then Poutanko and Colin would make a lot more sense as scummates.

[Lunalee]

I'm so behind. Thanks for the extra long night phase, DDL. So what's going on here?

Jay and nutella are doing an interactive spreadsheet to map out who looks bad. Then town is going to work the spreadsheet as a group.

There is no resolution to the Quin v. Speedchuck issue. At least in my opinion. speed has a different opinion and so does Quin.

DH doesn't seem to want to participate anymore, hopefully he will change his mind.

There's a lot of other stuff but those are my highlights.

Thanks Juliets!

[juliets]

Somebody else propose things for me to naysay.

Mac is scum because he farted on the vig kills.

Sprityo is town because he doesn't feel any duty to put forth full effort for his team.

Sloonei is town because Owner was town.

Colin is scum because of how quickly the Glorf wagon picked up when the lynch was between Colin and Long Con. (I know this one paints me in shadow and I don't care.)

Have fun.

Poutanko claimed she copped Colin, and he was town, right? And she copped you and you're scum. You say it is exactly opposite from what she said. And yet you still believe she is town? If you are indeed town, then Poutanko and Colin would make a lot more sense as scummates.

Poutanko did claim those things. The question is whether either of those reads is a false read due to a redirection. I don't think anyone has proved she was not redirected though someone jump in here if I am wrong. There's just SO much to try and remember.

[speedchuck]

Somebody else propose things for me to naysay.

Mac is scum because he farted on the vig kills.

Sprityo is town because he doesn't feel any duty to put forth full effort for his team.

Sloonei is town because Owner was town.

Colin is scum because of how quickly the Glorf wagon picked up when the lynch was between Colin and Long Con. (I know this one paints me in shadow and I don't care.)

Have fun.

Poutanko claimed she copped Colin, and he was town, right? And she copped you and you're scum. You say it is exactly opposite from what she said. And yet you still believe she is town? If you are indeed town, then Poutanko and Colin would make a lot more sense as scummates.

You might just want to read the context of this statement.

I was proposing things for Jack to naysay.

[juliets]

haha I missed that too!

[juliets]

It's very slow this morning - we seem to be all talked out.

[DharmaHelper]

I'm so behind. Thanks for the extra long night phase, DDL. So what's going on here?

Jay and nutella are doing an interactive spreadsheet to map out who looks bad. Then town is going to work the spreadsheet as a group.

There is no resolution to the Quin v. Speedchuck issue. At least in my opinion. speed has a different opinion and so does Quin.

DH doesn't seem to want to participate anymore, hopefully he will change his mind.

There's a lot of other stuff but those are my highlights.

I don't want to be the dancing clapping monkey, there's a difference.

[Sloonei]

I'm so behind. Thanks for the extra long night phase, DDL. So what's going on here?

Jay and nutella are doing an interactive spreadsheet to map out who looks bad. Then town is going to work the spreadsheet as a group.

There is no resolution to the Quin v. Speedchuck issue. At least in my opinion. speed has a different opinion and so does Quin.

DH doesn't seem to want to participate anymore, hopefully he will change his mind.

There's a lot of other stuff but those are my highlights.

I don't want to be the dancing clapping monkey, there's a difference.

We never said you have to clap.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Quin and sprityo

Quin's stuff

Spoiler: show

Quin, would you be able to throw together a six-player POE list?

speed's alignment would change things a fair bit. So have two.

If speed is bad:
colin
nutella
jack
DH
sprityo
DH

If speed is good:
colin
jack
DH
sprityo
kara
pout

Nothing whatsoever until a D4 POE list. And that's it.

sprityo's stuff

Spoiler: show

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

sprityo what do you think about the speed vs. Quin debate?

That’s a debate? I didn’t recognize that was a thing

sprityo implied he was unaware of the Quin vs. speedchuck mechanical debate. Seems kind of hard to miss if one opens the thread at all during D4, but I'm not sure I disbelieve it.

~~~

Conclusion

Zilch to discuss. They're compatible by default.

YELLOW

[Jackofhearts2005]

anyway lol yeah basically if I die the mafia are fucking idiots lynch the fuck out of kara

[Jackofhearts2005]

Jackofhearts2005 and sprityo

Jack's stuff

Spoiler: show

helo checking in

Hi, Lap.

It's the "hi" tell, as seen from Infected_alien9 in DFS.

D0 has no effect on that, D1 is. I don't get how you read Lap as bad due to you viewing her 1 post on D0 as she did it because she urged to.

I didn't get the argument before this, but it's a good point. Mafia wants to make good use of their abilities. Would the bad guys really be okay losing out on a roleblock/kill/other whatever dark arts or regular ability because Lap didn't post?

Not that they have any say in it.

If Lap is laying low on purpose, is it because she doesn't know the rules? Or because she doesn't care about the scum having actions?

Jay view:
>Lap made a post because she felt the need to

My view:
>Lap did it D0, what reason is possible to make her feel the need to post on D0?? If she did it D1 then okay I can see why Jay view her that way.

Basically ^ feel free to ask me if there's something not clear from my post. I'm not native speaker

Is Lap a known inactive?

Lap’s on the quiet end and gets mislynched sometimes.

Half-defense.

Lynching Sprityo feels like a cop out.

Literal defense.

I suddenly am more okay with lynching Sprityo.

k.

it got swept under the rug like an unwanted stepchild

Poor Arry Potta.

Banter.

what? Jay and Mac and DH DONT know everything? First I’ve heard of this statement

They're distancing from each other obv.

Banter.

Also Juliets I think there’s merit in investigating why Epi was killed and who he had voiced suspicions for at the time

Okay sure. Why don't you tell us about Luna and Colin or my thoughts on Mac's thoughts on this?

Gentle sort of prod, pressure-free.

You should look and Sprityo some more.

Joke.

7 player poe
Chuck
Quin
Luna
Kara
Sprityo
Colin
...
Pou

Included in the POE. Everyone included sprityo.

sprityo's stuff

I think you're all thinking way too hard about the whole Speedchuck/Quin fiasco. There's some overwhelming evidence that nobody is even considering.

Spoiler: show

Speedchuck is always mafia

Phew, thank goodness someone said it

Joke.

~~~

Conclusion

The only truly relevant interactions mostly feature Jack standing up for sprityo, either explicitly or implicitly. They're compatible as teammates, though it isn't entirely striking.

ORANGE

Try green for Slytherin, Jay. *sneers*

[Jackofhearts2005]

Jackofhearts2005 and Quin

Jack's stuff

Spoiler: show

harry potter and the goblet is the best book but the worst movie and if you disagree im killing you first

But firebender dance tho.

Banter.

This is the second picture banter post. I'm not going to share them.

Lean civ
DH
Jay
Speed
Epi
Quin
Timmer

This was the third-highest tier in Jack's D3 reads list. There's very little preceding this to indicate any progression on Quin (or any read origin). Take it or leave it.

Can’t unring the bell. Juliets is confirmed town to me.

I can see town and scum motivation for Jay, Speed, Nutella and Quin’s reactions.

Jay probably not w/w with Speed, Nutella. Speed probably not w/w with Jay, LC. Quin maybe not w/w with Jay either.

Salad-adjacent if not outright salad. Quin is named among others in a post that serves little purpose on the Quin front specifically. There's a town or a scum motive. He's maybe not w/w with me. Okay then. He expanded here and was more concrete in his separation of Quin and I.

fyi INH could have been resurrected with the resurrection stone. If scum got possession of it then it effectively became a throwaway item they'd want to use straight away, since it's no use to them as all roles flip. No fuckery there.

Unless he was resurrected by town in which case admit yourself to St. Mungo's ASAP.

Resurrection stone doesn’t pure rez in the lore and this is the first rez.

We can assume the rez is a one shot or has some sort of major drawback. Otherwise, why didn’t scum rez previously? Even if they just got it, why didn’t town rez previously?

@ whoever rezzed INH

I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed. And you're fucking nuts.

Might not have been on purpose.

[Crucio]: This spell will torture a student, roleblocking them for a night and forcing them to reveal what spells they know.

[Imperio]: This spell will take control of a student’s actions. Any abilities they use will be redirected to a target of the user’s choice. The student being controlled cannot be forced to self-target. This ability can only be used once in the game on each player.

It’s one thing to rez a scumbuddy and waste the town’s time. Meaner to force a townie to burn their one shot rez one a wolf.

Mehchanics. Boring.

I'm going to use that term moving forward.

Obviously we need to lynch INH, Speedchuck and Quin for being in the wrong houses. We can just fast forward now.

k jokes

Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing).

When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio?

So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy?

lots of linki which I will read now

Did Glor fail N1 or more likely N2? If they misdirected you into a dead player, they had to know you had a phoenix.

This means scum misdirect shenanigans very unlikely to be the cause of Speed/Quin discrepancy.

mehchanics

If Quin is bad and was targeting his teammate Long Con, what ability might he have been using?

Was this question ever answered?
Additionally, I want to ask who we'd believe more in the Quin vs. Speedchuck split if poutanko's cop claim didn't exist?
And also if there's a scenario in which all three of speedchuck, quin, and poutanko are town and telling the truth?

If these are things that have already been discussed then you can just slap me and point me in the right direction. But I'm hung up on these reported night actions right now and feel like it's the most pressing issue we've got right now.

I trust Quin more.

k why

Speedchuck just confirmed himself as scum and that his teammate is in Slytherin. Nice!

I don't get it. Please explain while I sit with my legs crossed and listen nice a nice boy.

diricrawl cannot switch actions directed at one person to another, diricrawl can only switch actions directed at the owner to another. speedchuck has maintained the first, which is a mechanical impossibility.

he also says his floo powder buddy is the reason for this, who can only be a Slytherin since they last won the house cup.

Speed is saying his floobuddy (who is Kara because she already said so) dirticrawler switched herself with Speed.

Therefore, someone who have had to misdirect Kara and him for his info to be wrong.

He’s still bad but you misunderstood.

picking my nose at these mehchanics

7 player poe
Chuck
Quin
Luna
Kara
Sprityo
Colin
...
Pou

Quin's in the POE. Everyone included Quin.

Jack offers up some resistance when poutanko was intent to clear Quin. Good call, the logic is at least sound. Doesn't mean a whole lot to me.

Quin's stuff

Spoiler: show

Hey gang! I have two votes now, LOL.

HAH HAH.

LOL.

Anyway I have no time to read or do anything; I’m at a Pittsburgh conference. Did I already say that? Dunno.

RIP my meta 5ever

Someone tag me and give me a convincing argument for a vote and I may follow you, assuming I get a chance to check in.

If I posted this, Jay would vote for me.

Would that vote be justified?

ordinary prod

Quin, would you be able to throw together a six-player POE list?

speed's alignment would change things a fair bit. So have two.

If speed is bad:
colin
nutella
jack
DH
sprityo
DH

If speed is good:
colin
jack
DH
sprityo
kara
pout

Quin included Jack in his POE regardless of speedchuck's alignment. Okay.

~~~

Conclusion

The meat of their interaction is mechanics-focused, which elicits a loud groan from me. It isn't teammate-indicative, but man I hate mechanics. Bleh. Otherwise this is a bunch of nothing.

YELLOW

It’s not salad if there is explicit reasoning behind the statement. It’s just multiple names.

And don’t ask why I trust Quin more than Speedchuck when you know exactly why I don’t trust Speedchuck.