Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)

[c4e5g3d5]

It probably makes sense in a vacuum

Where it breaks down is "nora w" though lol I think I'm pretty obvious and I think the discussion should start at that being true or false

And when tf did I get a reputation, I need to know for ego purposes

It probably makes sense in a vacuum

Where it breaks down is "nora w" though lol I think I'm pretty obvious and I think the discussion should start at that being true or false

And when tf did I get a reputation, I need to know for ego purposes

why do you think it's impossible?

also i havent seen ur wolf game but people tell me ur an excellent town and i would be scared to wolf against you personally, so that's mostly where that bit of paranoia comes from that you have survived so long

As in why am I obvious?

Egix
Consistent analytical depth and clearly trying to steer the thread in the right direction
I think I pretty obviously believe my Naomi read, EoD2 in particular

And even with games where I've stomped the wolves out of existence I haven't gotten NKed in months lol

This was me, Mac was in this game, and this was like two weeks ago.

[c4e5g3d5]

If you're not sick of hearing it yet

Oh my god.

[c4e5g3d5]

If y'all are really all in on this team

Alison never doesn't tunnel me sometime before EoD1 when I wolf against her. She cleared me this game.
Hally's been snap calling my alignment SoD1 every game since like July. Guess what they did this game?

There's literally one dead villager that didn't have me as almost clear.

I'm miles out of my wolf range. I never come up with my Alison read as a wolf. I never come up with my Jay read as a wolf. I never come up with my Dizzy read as a wolf. I never handle Dizzy's soft like that as a wolf. I'm not proud of it, but I can never case that much town that intricately as a wolf.

There are plenty of games where I deserve to be MLed, and then there's this game. Please.

What Alison read. What Jay read. What Dizzy read. What Dizzy soft. I recall no intricate case making from you.

Spoiler: show

jay, why is radishes the towniest town to ever town?

I bet I can answer this and if Jay explains what's in my head I'll return the lock town read on him.

Radish hypes up the whole did he think what I thought he thought thing, making it sound like there's a high bar for Jay to clear here

jay, why is radishes the towniest town to ever town?

his reception of Nanook doing the "Jay and Mac are outed" thing and conversion of that into "Nanook and Mac are outed" looked very real to me, even if he didn't intend for it to be taken as incredibly serious. The brain that happened in MR's brain to facilitate that read is something I don't figure mafia are braining on Page 1

All Jay has to offer is describing what Radish did and saying "this feels like town"

Yep Jay town.

And that's enough for Radish apparently

Bit of a letdown

i’m gonna be really annoyed if both alison and NAA are v

I get why you'd be annoyed if NAA is V treating you like this, but what did I do?

i probably shouldn’t lump you in with him

was annoyed at you earlier because it felt like you weren’t even trying to find me and were trying to pigeonhole me into your logic with the dizzy thing and then seriously asking me why i wouldn’t be ok blindly sheeping you when i don’t v read you and you wolf read me

just frankly asinine things that i have a hard time seeing you come at me with as a villager

but you’ve dropped it now so hopefully that’s the end of that

All of those things are reaction tests.

your entire push on me was a reaction test?

This seems kinda Alison 101 lmao

Also I think the main reason for my Alison tr is presentation, still having trouble describing it but there's an efficiency to it, she gets to the point quickly and bluntly in a way that looks designed to hit harder when you read it
Just makes me actually believe she's trying to stir the thread, and I also think it describes what I've seen of v!Alison better than what I've seen of w!Alison

And generally she seems to not have any kind of schedule for who she pressures and when but these reads are always wrong from me so take that one with a grain of salt

Town reads
c4e5g3d5
Hally
MacDougall
Marmot

There's some dissonance here, but gun to head town
Dyslexicon
Master Radishes

Not town reads
Alison
DrWilgy
Nanook
NAA

At 9 vs. 2, an ordinary set of roles would call for a POE pool of 5 players (2 mafia + 3 mischops). The arrangement of this game's matrix provides the likelihood (certainty?) of a mischop being lost to an extra mafia kill or beloved princess, so reduce the POE to 4. We'd then need 6 town reads to square the game away, which for the moment does seem like a genuine challenge. I have a theoretical POE built above, but I would like to be more confident about it than I am.

I vaguely understand Dizzy's read on Wilgy. I am not sure I agree with it, but I get it.

I don't understand Mac's read on NAA.

@c4e5g3d5 you asked about my Mac read. I'm afraid it's not going to be one that is likely to move your needle a ton, but anyway:

In recent memory, when Mac has been mafia I have been able to tell pretty quickly. There's a certain degree of obviousness about how BS his chaos has been, and it becomes difficult to suspend disbelief for his sake. I don't get that impression generally in this game. I think his reads have mostly made sense and that they have aligned well with my own. When he and I are seeing a similar state of affairs I think that's usually a good sign. The only read of his that I do not follow is his town read on NAA.

I could move Mac down a level to the "dissonance" pile. At the least answering c4's prompt made it clearer to me that I cannot concretely justify a town read. I can vaguely justify it.

@Dyslexicon I'm a sucker for this kind of thing
It's the kind of read where you can see where he's leaning and when throughout even though he doesn't say it explicitly at any point
Then little things like that second post being presented as off topic and not for a specific purpose and how he shows off the original townread more than the retraction even while applying pressure come off has lacking agenda
Just a bunch ofextra hoops for w!Jay to jump through that make me think he's genuinely reading Mac

Not my only reason but it's the one I can recall right now and the one I had the most fun finding

And it turns out I still think Dizzy's town

If I get a good night's sleep before I die his game you might get an explanation but I mean just search "Alison" in his ISO lol

And it turns out I still think Dizzy's town

If I get a good night's sleep before I die his game you might get an explanation but I mean just search "Alison" in his ISO lol

I just did this, and it didn't quite get me there. Still, if there's a specific micro-progression (new word) you're referring to similar to the ones you've pointed out about me, it'd be helpful if you could highlight it.

There's no one thing, the whole thing put together just feels really real

If you want one region to look at, maybe around that part Friday evening where Alison came back

Around that part you can see it just turns into an avalanche of reasons Alison is a wolf
And not bs reasons

Wolves are more likely to be content with finding a small handful of reasons to bury someone, and just cling to those and call back to them whenever necessary, and it's also just a lot harder to do that to someone you know is town
And just unnecessary considering how quickly the Alison momentum built up

All looks like actually solving Alison

Nook's "Look at how many posts I have" is asinine and I refuse to believe he doesn't realize it's different when they're empty Nook posts

145 posts LiTeRaLlY uNrEaDaBlE

what’s the villageriest thing you’ve posted iyo?

Idk, I dont have to evaluate myself lol. I think I'm broadly in my town meta but idk that there's one specific thing that clears me. Maybe my entrance wrt mac and Jay or not forcing a read on axe, but

Nook says he doesn't and shouldn't have reasons he's town when he spent his SoD1 insisting he was towntelling

Nook popping in to push back on the two most recent out of however many points against him, and doing it exclusively with factual information, while trying to project not caring, is baaaaaaad

Simple things that have been on the table this whole time like the posts Nook chose to respond to SoD1 making his entrance look awkward as hell

Nook popping in to push back on the two most recent out of however many points against him, and doing it exclusively with factual information, while trying to project not caring, is baaaaaaad

Why is this baaaaaaad

1. Soft beetlejuice
2. Picks the easy way to refute points even when (particularly with how he cites his postcount) it doesn't actually refute points
3. Acting like he doesn't care when his actions imply he does care

Like he literally started getting indignant about pushes on him right after people said the fact that he wasn't doing so was wolfy, after not having been in thread
I feel like this case writes itself

irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

Close enough
Thought it was probably fake but wasn't sure either way and wanted to just resolve it
Especially since he was softing something that would've 180'd all my reads

irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

Close enough
Thought it was probably fake but wasn't sure either way and wanted to just resolve it
Especially since he was softing something that would've 180'd all my reads

wait

did you think he was softing a red on me?

Yeah, a watch

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

Close enough
Thought it was probably fake but wasn't sure either way and wanted to just resolve it
Especially since he was softing something that would've 180'd all my reads

wait

did you think he was softing a red on me?

Yeah, a watch

why a watch specifically?

His second post of the day

You have lost all "I don't remember it therefore it doesn't exist" privileges.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@c4e5g3d5 who are your suspects

[Hally]

i’m skimming c4’s iso in the mentor game and he seems like a better wolf than i was giving him credit for

[c4e5g3d5]

@c4e5g3d5 who are your suspects

Think it's Axe/Mac

Mac's treatment of Axe is almost too compatible to be compatible
Starts by looking for a way tovote outside of him/Axe, thread isn't receptive, switches to setting up potential Axe partners in response
Later townreads Axe again but jumps on the first chance to tie me to him

Mac citing something he knows is completely NAI for me, then going "I don't remember you doing <list of half of what I've done this game>", comes off as deliberately obtuse

Also because I think you're townier than both of them, but this post from you made me question that lmao.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think we have two mafia in [c4, NAA, Mac]. Gut feeling:

c4/NAA > Mac/NAA > c4/Mac

Some concerns: Marmot kill most suggests Mac/NAA. Nanook isn’t clear (nor is Hally even).

Maybe today’s business for me should start with Hally interactions just to try to close that world for good.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Every post should make everyone question shit. It’s MYLO and the game has been a cluster.

[c4e5g3d5]

i’m skimming c4’s iso in the mentor game and he seems like a better wolf than i was giving him credit for

Smfh. Okay, now that you already have it open, note that literally the towniest, hardest-to-make observation I make in that entire game is the one where I call Poggie >rand v at SoD1.

[NotAnAxehole]

I am out of my wolf range

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Concern about Mac: if he's town I'd expect him to want my head on a pike right now

[Hally]

i’m skimming c4’s iso in the mentor game and he seems like a better wolf than i was giving him credit for

Smfh. Okay, now that you already have it open, note that literally the towniest, hardest-to-make observation I make in that entire game is the one where I call Poggie >rand v at SoD1.

i agree your depth of thought this game is definitely better

your posts there seem pretty good tonally though and the competition this game is much better so i assume you would up your game here since you wouldn’t be playing against a town of mostly potatos

[Hally]

Concern about Mac: if he's town I'd expect him to want my head on a pike right now

i think mac’s respond to being voted just now was pretty villagery

would expect w!mac to be more focused on getting the votes off him in that moment instead of solving through it

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't think it's Hally/NAA.
I don't think it's Hally/Nanook.

These are uncontroversial takes, I am just making note as I review (not going to do the whole formatted post spiel unless it becomes pertinent)

[Hally]

i should say i have a not insignificant tinfoil on you, jay

question is if i will ever be able to pull the trigger on it

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i should say i have a not insignificant tinfoil on you, jay

question is if i will ever be able to pull the trigger on it

That's fine. It comes with the mimlo territory.

I'm town. There's no single thing I can say to annihilate your tinfoil, but I will give one suggestion/assertion that you can take however you will: you've always had a pretty strong grasp of what I am about in my town body. In our limited games together I don't think you've ever misread me when I have been town (at least not long enough to matter). You found me again this time, and I don't think there'd be much room for doubt if we weren't currently playing in a hot mess.

I have something resembling tinfoil on you too. Chances are it's the same phenomenon. Sort as you must.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If I ignore all notions of building a total game theory and just give flat reads of players in isolation, it'd look something like this:

c4e5g3d5
Hally

NotAnAxehole
MacDougall


Dyslexicon
DrWilgy

Nanook
Master Radishes

i’m actually not as sold on c4 as i was yesterday. he feels a bit off today just because i’d expect him to have a bit more investment after a villager got lunched.

also talk about NAA? he’s still squarely PoE to me. and i would move dizzy up a tier.

Best post I can find that might dissociate Hally from c4 (I'm not sure Hally would have bothered with this "distancing" instead of just letting c4 ride in the limelight). It's a small bit so call them technically compatible in an emergency. I don't see much else that speaks to me.

[Hally]

i should say i have a not insignificant tinfoil on you, jay

question is if i will ever be able to pull the trigger on it

That's fine. It comes with the mimlo territory.

I'm town. There's no single thing I can say to annihilate your tinfoil, but I will give one suggestion/assertion that you can take however you will: you've always had a pretty strong grasp of what I am about in my town body. In our limited games together I don't think you've ever misread me when I have been town (at least not long enough to matter). You found me again this time, and I don't think there'd be much room for doubt if we weren't currently playing in a hot mess.

I have something resembling tinfoil on you too. Chances are it's the same phenomenon. Sort as you must.

yeah i mean, usually when we’ve played together you’ve dunked on a wolf before tinfoiling you would be a concern

but anyway, i’m gonna iso everyone soon and if i have specific concerns i want addressed i’ll let you know

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Furthermore I will add that nobody outright attacking me (the way Jay and Hally have done right now) d1 is a strong indicator that it's because I was pushing an incorrect POE and wasn't being a threat. Jay and Hally at multiple points exhibited TMI that I was town.

I might dissociate Hally from Mac entirely as a product of this Day 2 stretch when Mac and I fought and Hally was caught in the scuffle.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have a hard time plugging Hally with anyone alive other than c4, and that one is just kind of whatever "it technically fits if I want it to fit". Pack it for later if appropriate, but Hally isn't the choice today. I realize it was unlikely in the first place, but due diligence is critical at this point.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think Nanook's EOD2 frustration was real, which would suggest he was really frustrated about the state of game mechanics (which would be town-indicative given the mechanics were town-aligned). I am tempted to call him town and just move on from that, which is what leads me to my three suspects. I don't want to completely shut the door though, so if anyone has a protest for this logic or generally town reading Nanook I will listen to you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Flat, basic reasons to accept the three teams I believe to be most likely:

c4/NAA -- Nanook, if town, can be trusted for his c4 read being a genuine insight. That means he can absolutely be right. c4's best teammate fit is pretty easily NAA, who is not hard to view as mafia in general.

Mac/NAA -- Marmot left a legacy that implicates this team. Link. Marmot rules and we might just be dumb.

c4/Mac -- When I reviewed their interactions, I found at least the potential for an argument that distancing might be in play. It wasn't super convincing to me, but nor would it shock me.

[Hally]

I think Nanook's EOD2 frustration was real, which would suggest he was really frustrated about the state of game mechanics (which would be town-indicative given the mechanics were town-aligned). I am tempted to call him town and just move on from that, which is what leads me to my three suspects. I don't want to completely shut the door though, so if anyone has a protest for this logic or generally town reading Nanook I will listen to you.

agreed

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think Nanook's EOD2 frustration was real, which would suggest he was really frustrated about the state of game mechanics (which would be town-indicative given the mechanics were town-aligned). I am tempted to call him town and just move on from that, which is what leads me to my three suspects. I don't want to completely shut the door though, so if anyone has a protest for this logic or generally town reading Nanook I will listen to you.

agreed

I'd very much appreciate your take on the c4/Mac relationship. If that team can be eliminated, then today's choice becomes a bit simpler for me. But right now I can't do that.

[c4e5g3d5]

i’m skimming c4’s iso in the mentor game and he seems like a better wolf than i was giving him credit for

Smfh. Okay, now that you already have it open, note that literally the towniest, hardest-to-make observation I make in that entire game is the one where I call Poggie >rand v at SoD1.

i agree your depth of thought this game is definitely better

your posts there seem pretty good tonally though and the competition this game is much better so i assume you would up your game here since you wouldn’t be playing against a town of mostly potatos

If you can use this to shoot down any argument I'm town, we'll be here all day.

I've wolfed in scary lists before. You've seen how it goes.

[c4e5g3d5]

I think Nanook's EOD2 frustration was real, which would suggest he was really frustrated about the state of game mechanics (which would be town-indicative given the mechanics were town-aligned). I am tempted to call him town and just move on from that, which is what leads me to my three suspects. I don't want to completely shut the door though, so if anyone has a protest for this logic or generally town reading Nanook I will listen to you.

Indeed

[Hally]

i’m skimming NAA’s iso and don’t see anything that unaligns him from c4

he throws out c4 as an unexplained wolf read early D1, says he needs to check to see if the read holds, doesn’t check it, then completely drops it and never really talks about c4 again the rest of the game

seems like it could easily be in w/w range

[Hally]

Who are the wolves Mac?

Radishes and Wilgy most likely. C4 can be mafia.

C4 was my top mafia read early on... I think I would actually need to check this read in order to seriously hold onto it though.

so when are you gonna check it? it’s lylo now

[Hally]

I think Nanook's EOD2 frustration was real, which would suggest he was really frustrated about the state of game mechanics (which would be town-indicative given the mechanics were town-aligned). I am tempted to call him town and just move on from that, which is what leads me to my three suspects. I don't want to completely shut the door though, so if anyone has a protest for this logic or generally town reading Nanook I will listen to you.

agreed

I'd very much appreciate your take on the c4/Mac relationship. If that team can be eliminated, then today's choice becomes a bit simpler for me. But right now I can't do that.

yea i’m gonna go through everyone’s isos

started with NAA since he’s my top wolf

[Hally]

NAA/mac also seems very possible from NAA’s side

NAA talks about the possibility of mac being a wolf and puts him in a dichotomy with nook but never really pushed mac until today

he seemed more interested in voting in his MR/dizzy dichotomy than his mac/nook dichotomy

[c4e5g3d5]

@JaggedJimmyJay

Have you said your issues with me with words

Can we start there now that we're in LyLo

[Hally]

NAA/jay seems unlikely from NAA’s side

the way he interacts with jay feels more w/v i think? and jay was the only one willing to push NAA with me D1, so i think i’m just gonna rule that team out

the main source of my jay tinfoil is how much he was defending NAA D2 for weak reasons (imo) but i don’t think it really holds up

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay

Have you said your issues with me with words

Can we start there now that we're in LyLo

You are a suspect by POE. I don't find it that hard to believe you can be mafia given your relatively emotionless play. You've provided keen insights, but the vast majority to my memory have been of the town reads variety and require only that you be paying attention. I've seen slots like I perceive yours to be flip mafia with reasonable enough regularity.

[Hally]

there’s really not much to say about NAA/nook

they seem technically compatible but i almost think they would feel more pressure to give definitive reads on each other if w/w? feel like they’ve mostly kept each other at arms length, and generally when people who know each other wolf together they tend to feel pressured to have more substantive interactions i think

i dunno, kinda shrug about it

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just bringing these back for my own ease of reference:

Mac and NAA
c4 and NAA
c4 and Mac

[Hally]

jay, as i chug through this let me know if my thoughts don’t match your analysis


also apologies, usually i would multiquote the posts that lead me to these conclusions but multiquoting is harder on ts on my phone

[JaggedJimmyJay]

jay, as i chug through this let me know if my thoughts don’t match your analysis


also apologies, usually i would multiquote the posts that lead me to these conclusions but multiquoting is harder on ts on my phone

I think your conclusion on NAA/Mac is valid. I had previously "light greened" them, but my reasoning was pretty specific and not hard to discard. NAA's voting behavior at EOD2 makes that team plausible on its own power.

I might be more conservative about NAA/Nanook than you were. I think those two aim for what they believe to be optimal, and I would give 451ers in general a higher probability of low interactivity as mafia teammates than players from most other sites. I don't think their interaction is necessarily a "problem" though -- just one I'd call null.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just bringing these back for my own ease of reference:

Mac and NAA
c4 and NAA
c4 and Mac

Fixing the first link: Mac and NAA

[Hally]

wow, c4 soft defends NAA like… a lot

not gonna quote it all but ctrl+F axe in c4’s iso

really feels like he’s grasping for reasons to keep his teammate out of his PoE

[Hally]

i think i even had a read at one point that c4’s read on NAA was villagery unless they were w/w lol

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I believe wagons or near-wagons existed around the EOD2 stretch on both c4 and NAA, so it'd be interesting to see how each handled that. Mac had a wagon too obviously so that needs to be checked out beyond just NAA's vote placement.

[Hally]

NAA looks like such a teammate from c4’s iso that it’s almost making me wonder if they would be that obvious as w/w lol

like, look at this:

c4’s entrance feels kinda underwhelming, i agree

Same

who are the wolves?

Nook is wolfy and I haven't felt a need to persuade anyone

"Mac needs to step it up" has been hammered into all of us enough
Gut says he's been playing in a generally unaligned way but I don't normally need my gut with Mac

I have reasons to like all of Axe/Dizzy/Radish/Wilgy and just need some of them to be stronger ffs

what are those reasons?

Axe has a towny self-absorption
Dizzy is being significantly more effective and less agenda'd than GoC
Radish's takes have felt like they came without obligation
Wilgy made catches I didn't expect him to when I didn't expect him to

the NAA v read sticks out like a sore thumb here

we know the other three v reads are all correct now and they seem believable enough… and then there’s the axe read that looks like BS to me

[Hally]

i wanna kill NAA over mac and alison

to me NAA’s play just reads like open wolfing while daring anyone to do anything about it and then snickering to himself when he skates by

also the difficulty i’ve had getting traction on my push on him while other targets have gotten votes very easily indicates he’s a wolf

i see he’s since gotten a vote from marmot but idc about that because i v read marmot, and jay seems to be the only other person willing to push NAA with me and i v read him too, whereas it feels like every other wagon has been joined by people i don’t v read

NAA just feels like the play here

Big meh on VCA in a game with 2 wolves

I think the things Axe's snickering about are more based on what he's saying about everyone else than what everyone else is saying about him
I can't ride or die a read like this but I think it's towny

[Hally]

what does that read even mean

[Hally]

he is literally just describing NAA’s behavior (which seems more NAA indicative than AI) and then going “uhh idk it’s towny” lol

[Hally]

i think that regardless of NAA’s alignment my reasons to wolf read him in that post were pretty bad and it would be fairly easy for c4 to use that as a platform to defend NAA without looking too bad off it

[Hally]

I believe wagons or near-wagons existed around the EOD2 stretch on both c4 and NAA, so it'd be interesting to see how each handled that. Mac had a wagon too obviously so that needs to be checked out beyond just NAA's vote placement.

i don’t remember what axe did (my recollection is nothing)

c4 begrudgingly voted NAA but it was at the last second so i don’t think there was enough time for anyone to switch to NAA even if they wanted to

could definitely be a bus vote imo

[Hally]

gonna try to get home then i’ll look at c4/mac, jay

[Hally]

i’m admittedly kinda tunneled on NAA/c4 at this point though

but gonna try to be objective!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@c4e5g3d5 why did your suspicion of me increase when I asked you for your suspects