The Syndicate

I'm kind of hoping that the independent role doesn't have to die for a civilian win. It looks scary, but that doesn't mean anything. Without knowledge of its abilities and to this point no extra kills, it'd be pretty difficult to figure out who that is. If they have little or no kill protection of their own then that could point toward town reads who are lower in content (avoiding night kill attention), and names like FZ. or Dyslexicon could fit that description. Low effort non-town reads are also applicable (Marmot, DrWilgy, novaselinenever).

Perhaps Kyle reacted so strongly to my early fake tell because I threatened his imperative need for survival.

This post is player salad.

Anyway, these may be things to consider if we lynch three mafia members and the game doesn't end, or if we encounter conclusive evidence that bad things are happening from a non-mafia source.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:06 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:00 pm Huh. Sudden burst of content from NVN heavily pushing an LC lynch. Very odd.

I'm feeling pretty confident in an LC lynch at the moment and voting accordingly.

Just clearing my name. Sloonei asked to hear from me, I delivered. But it's all I have so far.

For some reason I believe this. I'm gullible.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:54 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:47 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town

Eh?

lol wrong about me. I've my names in red/yellow in several rainbows

What is it about LC that you think looks like mafia?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

The early returns across a few games seem to indicate that this is what should be expected from novaselinenever -- not just a lower post count, but also a lack of concrete [or any] reads. This means that reading him as mafia would amount to little better than a guess. Like you said though, he is never going to be left out of any POE pool playing this way and remains a valid suspect if not necessarily a compelling one.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:09 pm Is there an argument for Long Con to be town?

I think it can fairly be reduced to his mega-post/case on speedchuck. If you read that thing and see nothing but a glowing beacon of sincerity, then that would be telling. At first I thought it was a nice look, not simply for being effortful, but for being well-conceived. I think my initial reception was colored by the influence "Epi/JJJ" had over it though. I don't have to think too hard to place a mafia LC in the shoes of that post's creator.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:55 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:40 am Lorab:

lorabs push against epi was too consistent to be distancing, I see where Sloonei is coming from in the comment about buddying Nutella, asks about the LC case, doesn't seem to do anything with it. speed is an unlikely partner as well, same reason as epi. I don't see Sloonei as a partner either. Lorab doesn't seem to discuss long con at all, even near the end of day when the lynch is down to the two of them

Does anyone else feel like this is as strong as I think it is? Kyle made this post well after speedchuck's death have been revealed. I don't see scum kyle overlooking or forgetting his own nightkill victim.

The obvious counterpoint would be:

"It was intentional. Kyle stuck that in there on purpose to make it look like he forgot who he just killed."

And that's the sort of point that is usually crap. I wouldn't call that the best slam-dunk reason to read Kyle as a civilian, but it doesn't hurt his case at all.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:48 am This is so slimy. Just hop on board there, right?

It should be evident by this point that I don't care about "hopping on board". I struggle to believe that your Epignosis vote was purely accidental. That was a three-way tie until LoRab moved.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:21 am I still can't get over the wrong tab issue.

Lorab had three votes. So did you, Long Con.

Lorab had voted for me. Then you voted for me, making it a temporary three-way tie.

At no point did I have more than two votes, so the "wrong tab I was only saving myself" sounds like horseshit to me.

Agreed.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:22 am If you meant to save yourself and that was all, you would have gone with Lorab from the beginning.

Agreed.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:14 am Well, right now it looks like he's shoehorning Marmot into lynch position for dubious reasons.

Are you shoehorning him to safety for dubious reasons?

Marmot, why do you suspect MacDougall?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:22 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:38 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:19 pm Fair enough. If you could lynch any two players in the game right now who would they be?

You and somebody on the quieter side of things.

Epignosis is civilian. Jay is loud. Sloonei is the bee's knees.


Having not spent much time looking at the other players in the game, I'm not sure who else it would be. I still don't think nutella is mafia. I at one point thought Wilgy was civilian. I don't know if that still holds true. I am uncertain about the rest of the players.

Look man, either come at me with vigour and sell me that you are trying to win the game for the civ cause or point the finger at someone else and create another one of these live interactions that you require in order to scum hunt.

Jimmy does this not qualify as player salad?

It could probably qualify. You asked for two players to lynch and he provided you with five names -- none of whom were named as suspects or lynch options. It's babble.

A comment about the dialogue between Mac and Spacedaisy:

I don't think most mafia members are inclined to make plays which they are later forced to point to in their own defense. Civilians are hardly ever receptive to "I wouldn't do X as mafia" arguments, even when they should be, and I'm not sure what mafia members would anticipate getting much of any credit from that methodology. Instead I think it's better to judge the accuracy of Daisy's assertion about how she voted and would have voted if evil:

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:18 pm If I was a team with Lorab why would I not just either bus her or cast a vote to save her? How does voting off accomplish anything?

I think this is a question of personality more than a question of utility. There is a reason a mafia member might do that: to be relieved of culpability in any discussion of either a save or a bus. Instead the attack must be "sidelined a vote", which could be perceived as a less inspired accusation and one which would be more easily evaded. However, I don't think everyone would be into that methodology -- I wouldn't. A more assertive mafia-aligned player is probably going to either save LoRab or bus LoRab, and I do think that Spacedaisy is the assertive sort.

I think her point is reasonable.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:16 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:08 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:06 pm Yes, because I was lynched early in each of my last two games and you contributed to both of them.

I did. Am I mafia in this game though?

I don't want to lynch you today, no. I disagree with Epignosis's posts leading up to the linked one, especially the part where he says that you talking will help expose your teammates more. This is true of any player, but I would gander it's less true of you than most players. Not that you wouldn't talk about your teammates, but that it'd be harder to for anyone to read those connections.

That, and if you're mafia, Epignosis must certainly acknowledge that you'd have a decent shot at talking your way out of a lynch later.

I'm much more interested in lynching him.

I'm a bit confused by this moment, Marmot. You didn't want to lynch me because you disagreed with Epi's rationale about when I should be lynched. What does that have to do with whether I am aligned with the mafia?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:56 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:52 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:44 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:34 pm @MacDougall Seems like a piss poor strategy to me, but whatever you want to think you go ahead. But to be clear, I have never shied away from bussing teammates in the past.

Making actions so you can point at them later to gain civ cred is a piss poor strategy?

Guess that makes me a piss poor Mafia player then.

Seems like it would make way more sense to do something likely to buy you some civ cred than to take an action you have to explain and defend. Taking the clearly civ looking path makes more sense to me as a baddie than taking a weak move and taking the fall out just in order to say, "but if I was bad I wouldn't have done that!" But maybe that's just the way I play. Also, don't make it personal man, I wasn't saying anything about your gameplay. The piss poor comment was because if I was bad and had bussed her, I wouldn't likely be in the orange for people who previously were coloring me green. If that was my strategy it sure as hell seems to not be a very good one. That's all I meant.

Everything you said is wifom. That's the argument for why your action is capable of being a scum action. It's wifom. And as such needs to be completely ignored.

I think it's a strategic mistake to ignore something just because it's WIFOM. I have seen way too many legitimate arguments discarded as WIFOM throughout my Mafia days, and even if the core difficulty of WIFOM is technically true, that mindset fails to get at the real utilities of a decision between alignments.

This is a general comment for this game and all others.

LoRab and Kylemii


Honored inclusion in the player salad.


LoRab read Kyle as "not seeing him as bad" and also "null" in the same sentence. That's awkward.


Neutral chatter. There are some other mentions I didn't include that have already been discussed featuring LoRab's gripes about speedchuck's participation in a Kyle bandwagon.

Kyle reads LoRab GTH good. This read exists, I don't know what inspired it.

Ambivalent in a later reads list. Meh.


You tell me, bub. After this came the one "drunken" post asking for LoRab and LC cases.

~~~

At this point it's evident that LoRab gave conclusive reads on nearly nobody. Kyle didn't do anything with her either. The two reads provided are in conflict, and I don't really know where Kyle stood. This one feels like the Daisy interaction to me in that it is plausible, but it doesn't give me much feeling.

LoRab and Davedaisy

It appears LoRab did not mention this player slot except to welcome Daisy back.


Daisy said she'd shoot LoRab over Marmot, but voiced little confidence in the matter. I don't fault her here, as her perspective wasn't that different from my own -- Marmot did have minimal civilian credit and LoRab had none.


Daisy didn't make a priority of getting a read on LoRab. She had more to say about pretty much every other player. I note that she was similarly lacking in any read on novaselinenever, but was willing to default to a "bad" GTH read in his case.


Interesting, why interesting?

~~~

Conclusion: it's not the best look on the surface, though I'm honestly not feeling it that much. A teammate relationship wouldn't be shocking. Gun to my head I say that there isn't one.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:01 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:42 pm Kyle, you're all about the proximity analysis but the majority of your recent posts are analyzing yourself and defending yourself. What are you about, m8?

I've been dealing with a mild hangover this morning so I'm kinda chilling in the dark rn. that combined with the burglary has left me without the time or energy to do ISO's yet. I plan to start with you, LC, Spacedaisy 2.0, and maybe some other Long Con voters. do you have any other suggestions?

That's a fair start. Do your thing.

Daisy, please talk about your transition from this:

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:27 am

Spoiler: show

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:26 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:23 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:21 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:19 pm The most pressing question emerging from this then would be: Epignosis, why won't you be voting for me today?

Because you're a shitty Day 1 lynch.

Why?

Now you're just fishing for compliments.
Because if you are good, then that's an active, vocal, passionate mafia-hunter gone, one who didn't even get a real chance to catch anybody.
And if you are bad, then that's an active, vocal, passionate mafia member who will be interacting thoroughly with his teammates.

This ^ is not a baddie mind set. If Epi is bad why this?

To this:

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:47 pm Daisy 2.0
Kyle
Mac
Wilgy
Dyslexicon

FZ.
Long Con

Lorab
Marmot
NVN

Sloonei
Speed
Nutella

Epi
Jay

I am already aware of your mega-tinfoil thing that Epignosis and I are both Mafia. Are you saying then that you believed so strongly in this tinfoil that it negated your prior question?

Kyle, you're all about the proximity analysis but the majority of your recent posts are analyzing yourself and defending yourself. What are you about, m8?

FZ. wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:56 pm when does the night end? I mean how many hours from now? I want to check if I'm in the right time zone

Should be right around midnight or a bit later EST.

Back later to continue wrecking the mafia team.

LoRab and DrWilgy


This is an observation about Wilgy joining the nutella wagon with no conclusion drawn. It's a rather pointless comment.


After being prodded, she took a stance of some sort on every player she named except Wilgy. Because he's Wilgy. Not a fan.


Yes, it's neat. Neater than this post.

~~~

Conclusion: what little there is to talk about is negative. Teammate candidate.

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:32 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:31 pm LoRab and novaselinenever

This interaction contains exactly as much content as you likely expected.

You can skip me. Mine looks exactly the same.

Unfortunately you told me that as I was already making that discovery.

LoRab and Marmot

Nada. A lack of interaction with Marmot is worse at face value than a lack of interaction with novaselinenever.

LoRab and novaselinenever

This interaction contains exactly as much content as you likely expected.

LoRab and Long Con


LoRab gave speedchuck some crap for his voting behavior, and she cited the rationale provided by Long Con to explain it. This might say more about speedchuck than it says about LC, but the presentation of the suspicion is still an awkward thing. She never overtly voiced trust for LC, but it would have to be implied to some degree if she is conveying comfort in following his rationale.


This was the only other LC mention by LoRab I could find. It's the same post as the previous post.


And this was LC's only mention of LoRab period before her tied lynch tally was finalized.

~~~

Conclusion -- They're compatible teammates. There's nothing here that screams a connection, but I have zero reason to dissociate them.

I've started dipping into interactions, and I've come upon a disheartening conclusion. LoRab was another in a growing line of recent mafia lynches who were cased with "player salad". That tell has been so money. It's only a matter of time until the site adjusts.

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:37 am I will end you and Jay. :3

So many others have said in Mafia games past. They're dead now.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:03 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:01 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:55 am
Does this result change your feelings about Long Con at all?

I don't know much yet about how the LC/LoRab interaction will shake out. As of right now I have little reason to read him in a better light. It should be noted that he self-preserved in the tally and she did not.

He voted me first and then voted Lorab after I voted him.

In case that was missed.

Good call.

[mention]Long Con[/mention], you said this was a mishap caused by an old poll? I don't know exactly what you mean by that. Please expand.

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:00 am I'm ready to lynch you tomorrow. Are you prepared?

It's clear I am getting burned out when someone says this to my civilian self and all I want to say is "okay, great, go crazy".

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:55 am
Does this result change your feelings about Long Con at all?

I don't know much yet about how the LC/LoRab interaction will shake out. As of right now I have little reason to read him in a better light. It should be noted that he self-preserved in the tally and she did not.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:49 am Talk about why you voted for him instead of her.

I understand the questions and prompts. They're irrelevant, but I don't expect you to understand that. I encourage you to hunt to your heart's desire elsewhere and to continue thinking it all over, and if you still care about this later in the night phase you feel free to bring it right back up.

I think nutella looks good for having freaked out all over the tally to end the day phase, ultimately landing on LoRab. She didn't have to, especially not when her hated Sloonei was driving it.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:46 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:42 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:37 am Jay is suspicious.

If only you knew the irony.

Why was Long Con a better option than LoRab?

He wasn't.

I don't think LoRab bussed Epignosis.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:37 am Jay is suspicious.

If only you knew the irony.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:54 am @Kylemii

You shouldn't vote me because the case against me is that I didn't give special insight into the JJJ/Epi fight, and that I asked Epi to clarify "hedging", and that I didn't accuse FZ when she accused me.

I'm not bad and these reasons are not enough to kill me over.

This is not the case.

6-7 minutes

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:52 am What do you expect me to do about it? What success do I ever have with it, ever? What makes you think I was remotely interested in diving into that crap? I was absolutely avoiding it as much as possible.

At the very least I'd expect to know in clearer terms how you read the two players involved.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:52 am This sounds like, because I didn't OMGUS, I'm bad.

In a way you did OMGUS -- you told her she was inventing her accusation, which is itself an accusation. You didn't pursue that at all though, and in that exchange your role was purely responsive. I'm not telling you that you were supposed to suspect her, I'm telling you that you were supposed to give a damn about the motives of your own accuser. I saw no evidence that you did.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:51 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:48 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:47 am @y'all: what do you think of LoRab right now?

Lukewarm suspicion. What's her biggest offense?

Our exchange began with her stating a gripe against the nutella bandwagon. I asked her to investigate it. She did. The reads she produced were that Epignosis was suspicious regardless of how he looked in the nutella wagon, and that speedchuck was suspicious simply for being there and for dipping his toes in a lot of bandwagons. She made absolutely no comment on you, despite you also throwing your vote all over the place like speedchuck. I don't buy that these are sincere suspicions.

Tell me about Long Con quickly.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:42 am Jay, I like your thoughts on LC. I'll vote for him. If you're wrong I'll lynch you next.

nutella, tell me about this nasty post.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:47 am @y'all: what do you think of LoRab right now?

Lukewarm suspicion. What's her biggest offense?

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:45 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:44 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:42 am Jay, I like your thoughts on LC. I'll vote for him. If you're wrong I'll lynch you next.

The fuck?

You like my thoughts and if they're wrong I'm dead? Your vote is your responsibility, not mine. "Disgusting"

What thoughts? I'm Civ, what is the case??

You just quoted a speedchuck post which featured my case in another quote.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:44 am FZ using bad logic to accuse me isn't the same as her having a bad role card.

You didn't say she used bad logic. You said she invented arguments. That's very different. Moreover, you didn't explore her alignment, you just swatted her away.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:42 am Jay, I like your thoughts on LC. I'll vote for him. If you're wrong I'll lynch you next.

The fuck?

You like my thoughts and if they're wrong I'm dead? Your vote is your responsibility, not mine. "Disgusting"

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:42 am Why am I in the lead now? What's the case? I had to skip to the present or I'll just miss the lynch.

I can't speak for Mac or FZ. Here are my gripes.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:40 am He made that big ass case on speedchuck earlier today that you were enamored with.

Yeah I changed my mind on that. MacDougall suggested, fairly I think, that it wouldn't be out of character for mafia LC to shove thicker content into the thread as the climate worsens for him, and by that point a few people were reading him south-of-null.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:36 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:30 am With limited time remaining, I'd appreciate some quick feedback on the LC gripes I just posted.

My only complaint with LC is a small one- that he was doing exactly what FZ. accused him of doing (answering for her). I noted this because I said to myself that I would have rather had FZ. answer for herself.

Has he done anything that gives you the opposite (civilian) impression?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:34 am If Lorab is bad, she has a teammate in jeopardy. If she truly suspects me, why not put me further into the running to die?

I am troubled that she hasn't voted yet for anyone.

With limited time remaining, I'd appreciate some quick feedback on the LC gripes I just posted.