The Syndicate

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:18 pm There was some really great teamwork on town's part this game. Mafia had their hands full dealing with us. Good job.

We love to see it.

Thanks for the game, @JaggedJimmyJay \o/

Yay! Good job, town! ^^

Good luck, town!

Radish’s progression on Guillo isn’t really there. I swear, Made/Guillo/Radish crash and burn scum team makes things make sense.

Tony/Radish seems unlikely.

I guess these be my final thoughts and then I may or may not be here for next day.

Good night.

Oh. Hi, Martin!

Guillo/Radish is still my top guess. They may be harder to place with others than each other.

Tony and Nanook should be suspects, I guess.
Epi’s Made vote is weird. It really is.
Hally is my favorite tinfoil, as custom will have it. But don’t act on that.
I’m ok following Tutu on a town read on LC.
Marmot really should be town.
Tutu, Jules and Sean lock town.

Seeing Sean as possible scum seems like a really weird idea to me, and those who are considering it should walk us through it and not just mention it. Nanook and LC for example. I feel Sean is spewed town.

I really don’t get Nanook’s insistence on that scum would want to sacrifice Made over Guillo. Seems like a random assumption to me. Guillo had already said they were less motivated in the thread, they both had a big wagon, they didn’t know each other, why would there obviously be a preference? His sureness of Radish also puzzles me a bit. But sometimes I think Nanook can’t help but be a contrarian =p

Thing is, for me Made/Guillo/Radish actually makes a lot of sense as a team. Guillo already seemed a bit demotivated. It’s possible he was ok getting bussed or voted. Made voted Guillo, but argued more against Tutu. And why did Radish vote Guillo? When I askes him earlier in the day he said town for Guillo (with an added caveat which actually sounded like distancing to me). So when did he decide Guillo was a good vote anyway and why? Considering motivation and movement I don’t think this is a far off theory.

I can’t really argue against the Tony/Made interactions looking real bad though. I’m not entirely convinced Tony is scum, but the interactions doesn’t look great.

(I started writing this some hours ago. Hope it’s not outdated.)

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:27 pm the argument for epi being the busser i guess is that his vote was naked/kind of out of nowhere and was his last post of the day, so it’s possible he didn’t intend to leave his vote on made but then just couldn’t come back to change it. it’s kind of impossible to know what the intent there was

Yes. This has happened me a couple of times lol

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:10 am i still want him to do things, but i find it unlikely this is the approach he takes to the game as a wolf especially with his teammate getting a lot of heat and ultimately eliminated D1. i feel like wolf!him would feel compelled to make himself more town read as he saw how D1 was unfolding so as not to let his team down

Not sure about that tbh.

Thanks, Hally. I’ll have to look over it later.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:42 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:36 am

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:03 am The great thing about Mafia that a lot of people forget is that it's a team game. We're not reliant on one person to solve it all.

My role on the team is the mosquito buzzing around the towncore's ears distracting them and challenging their ability to concentrate. It keeps the townies from being complacent. I take this role seriously.

No.

Bbbzzzzzzzzzzzz

This stopped being funny a while ago. You are mafia siding right now. As you say, this is a team game, and we need everyone on a team to work towards our wincon. You’re a great town player and I don’t see why you would demonstratively troll and contribute so little if you are town. We have a scum down. This game is solveable. It just looks like you are mafia and over it.

All I wish is that if you’re town, you put some effort into this game on town’s behalf, because you’re good at it. I’m not seeing that, so chances of you being mafia skyrockets for me.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:47 am it depends on if made actually thought he had the votes to get radishes chopped

True. Would be good to have an overview over how votes went down near EoD. I don’t have that all in my head.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:03 am The great thing about Mafia that a lot of people forget is that it's a team game. We're not reliant on one person to solve it all.

My role on the team is the mosquito buzzing around the towncore's ears distracting them and challenging their ability to concentrate. It keeps the townies from being complacent. I take this role seriously.

No.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:20 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:39 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:32 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:25 am Yeah, but it could be Radish too? Why not keep the vote on Guillo if you’re Made and you already decided to bus Guillo earlier? Why switch off the last second to try and make a wagon on Radish if Radish is town and Guillo is scum, when it didn’t look particularly likely Radish was going to get yeeted anyway? It doesn’t make sense. Unless they are literally all the scum team lol

I think it looks worse for Radish than for Guillo the more I think about it.

I’ll answer your question with another question

If made and guillo are both mafia which would you prefer survive D1?

Wouldn’t care much, personally. Both.

Why is this a relevant question?

I think guillo would be a lot preferable to made in most teams, if one of them has to die guillo probably has a better chance of being in it for the long haul


How is this not a relevant question when we’re considering why made would switch to radishes

Are you suggesting Made switched to make themselves get yeeted over Guillo? If so, I’m not buying it at all. Madectried to survive by accounts of their last ditch effort.

Also, Made and Guillo haven’t played with each other. I don’t see why they would have a preference of one over the other at all. It just makes more sense that if it’s Made/Guillo with Radish as town, then it would be much more likely that Made would just keep their vote on Guillo to set up his team for success than do a switch to Radish.

I stand by my analysis that if Guillo is scum, it’s with exactly Radish. Radish could be scum without Guillo.

But I take it you disagree? Though I’m not clear on how your analysis go.

Didn’t I have an inkling of a Radish/Guillo connection earlier? I don’t know how valid this is, but it would be hilarious if that was the team.

I’d place Guillo over Radish though, based on Made’s switch off of Guillo. If Made is about to go down and has a bus vote on Guillo, it makes sense to just keep it to set up his teammate for success, or alternatively gain cred if Guillo gains more votes. Jumping off to a lesser town wagon makes much less sense imo, especially when Made in this scenario would’ve already made the conscious decision to place a bus vote on Guillo.

So Guillo is only scum if it’s with Radish, is my conclusion off of this. Thoughts?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:32 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:25 am Yeah, but it could be Radish too? Why not keep the vote on Guillo if you’re Made and you already decided to bus Guillo earlier? Why switch off the last second to try and make a wagon on Radish if Radish is town and Guillo is scum, when it didn’t look particularly likely Radish was going to get yeeted anyway? It doesn’t make sense. Unless they are literally all the scum team lol

I think it looks worse for Radish than for Guillo the more I think about it.

I’ll answer your question with another question

If made and guillo are both mafia which would you prefer survive D1?

Wouldn’t care much, personally. Both.

Why is this a relevant question?

Yeah, but it could be Radish too? Why not keep the vote on Guillo if you’re Made and you already decided to bus Guillo earlier? Why switch off the last second to try and make a wagon on Radish if Radish is town and Guillo is scum, when it didn’t look particularly likely Radish was going to get yeeted anyway? It doesn’t make sense. Unless they are literally all the scum team lol

I think it looks worse for Radish than for Guillo the more I think about it.

I don’t like how LC (weakly) shaded Sean at the beginning of the night either.

I think I’m at this -

Town:
Tutu
Jules
Epi
Sean

Probably town:
Hally

Could go both ways:
Guillo (feeling town)
Nanook (feeling town)
Marmot

Direct PoE:
Radish
Tony
LC

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:52 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:18 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:17 pm
Why is dizzy in your voltron?

I literally caught Made from his first post on D1 lol

This wasn’t Hally’s answer though

It kind if was. Even if not - so what? I’m confirmed town.com. Get into it.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:24 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:34 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:16 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:13 pm I feel like the fact that the vote was 5 (guillotine) to 6 (Made) for quite a while up until very close to EoD, it is unlikely that we had a busser. I'd guess there were two scum on Guilotine's wagon and 1 on MR (assuming there are three scum in the game) before I moved to MR.

eh, it’s very hard to draw reliable conclusions from wagons in this way because there’s so many reasons why the votes could be as they are and wolves often don’t have a coherent voting strategy

to be clear, for this analysis are you assuming guillo is town? why?

That is true, I'm definitely not saying there ABSOLUTELY were 2 wolves on Guillotine and one on MR, just that I think it is the most likely breakdown.

I feel like if I wouldn't have moved to MR, we would have ended with 5 votes on Guillotine and 6 on Made. I think it is unlikely if Guillotine is scum that we would have had 11/13 votes on scum. Maybe town is just super good and mafia is bussing a lot, but it just seems like a lot. So, I'd guess based off the wagons that Guillotine is town.

Sean, can you explain this a little bit more? Before the flip you mentioned that you thought Made and Guillo was either t/t or s/s, but after the flip you more so assume Guillo.

I’m not quite following your rationale.

You know, that is a great question, and I don't know if I have a great answer. Before the flip, the T/T or S/S guess was based mostly just on the idea that it was really quiet, so I didn't think it was T/S since if it was, it was too close for scum to not be trying to do something to save their scummate.

After the flip, I guessed Guillotine is town just based on number of votes. If Guillotine is scum, 11/13 votes were on scum. Given that Hally was one of the two people not on Guillotine or Made, and I am feeling good about Town!Hally, this would mean that at most one scum wasn't bussing, and possibly all three were, which just seems excessive, plus town is batting really well - a lot better than they usually do in my experience if Guillotine is scum too.

People have been mentioning that there is a lot of bussing on this site though, so I am starting to rethink Guillotine. To be honest, I'm not completely sure what I think about EoD yet.

I see. I think the idea of “scum would try to save" can be faulty here, since quite a few people weren’t around. If scum wasn’t around, obviously they can’t do anything. In fact, who was around at EoD.

But thanks for explaining. I think you’re town, since I don’t think your interaction with Made looks like teammates at all. His town read especially looked tmi to me.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:24 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:20 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:18 pm There’s probably a difference check between guillo and radishes and radishes is probably the town

difference check how? also why do you think radishy is the town over guillo?

Don’t think there’s more than one busser

Assuming made wagon is at least five town, wagons being 6/4/3 is weird

If they’re both town it’s much more likely mafia coalesce around one, if guillo is town he makes more sense imo due to the parked vote(s) on him

And radishes doesn’t super make sense as partners with made given votes, unless mafia just decided to bus bus bus

So I think good odds that guillo/radishes are not both town and that radishes is the town

Continuing this.

I don’t have an overview of how close the wagons were as I wasn’t present. If anyone can be bothered to make one, that would be super cool.

There are some relevant questions:
Why try to make Radish the yeet over Guillo? Was it more likely at the time that Radish’s would go through?

I understand the notion of the “difference check”, though I’m not sure it has to be true.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:17 am Bruh. I work 12 hours a day, I was hoping I could catch up. Did it say in the sign ups it was open night?

No, it’s just a thing here. It’s weird, I know. Should probably warn new players about it.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:17 pm
Why is dizzy in your voltron?

I literally caught Made from his first post on D1 lol

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:15 pm My current rainbow looks like this.


Marmot
Dyslexicon
Seanzie
tutuu
Epignosis
Guillotine
snowmelts/Hally
juliets
Long Con
Master Radishes
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
TonyStarkPrime

Can’t really argue with this list.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:58 am also i find epi’s whole thing to be very similar to his town game. the kinds of reads he’s making, they way he presents them, etc all seem exactly like how i expect epi to be as town

Probably correct.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:34 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:16 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:13 pm I feel like the fact that the vote was 5 (guillotine) to 6 (Made) for quite a while up until very close to EoD, it is unlikely that we had a busser. I'd guess there were two scum on Guilotine's wagon and 1 on MR (assuming there are three scum in the game) before I moved to MR.

eh, it’s very hard to draw reliable conclusions from wagons in this way because there’s so many reasons why the votes could be as they are and wolves often don’t have a coherent voting strategy

to be clear, for this analysis are you assuming guillo is town? why?

That is true, I'm definitely not saying there ABSOLUTELY were 2 wolves on Guillotine and one on MR, just that I think it is the most likely breakdown.

I feel like if I wouldn't have moved to MR, we would have ended with 5 votes on Guillotine and 6 on Made. I think it is unlikely if Guillotine is scum that we would have had 11/13 votes on scum. Maybe town is just super good and mafia is bussing a lot, but it just seems like a lot. So, I'd guess based off the wagons that Guillotine is town.

Sean, can you explain this a little bit more? Before the flip you mentioned that you thought Made and Guillo was either t/t or s/s, but after the flip you more so assume Guillo.

I’m not quite following your rationale.

Can someone confirm that Epi is against bussing? I’ve probably heard it before. I feel none of his votes D1 were strong, and it seems like he just ended on Made randomly almost.

Jules would never bus in that manner, I don’t think.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:36 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:21 am

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:19 am oh right, that is true

but this is not worth considering atm

I’m going to decide what’s worth considering for me. =p

it’s just that if you didn’t bring it up and he was town wolves would just nk him soonish and resolve it for us, but now they won’t to keep the paranoia alive

but it’s nbd, epi already brought it up. i wouldn’t consider yeeting marmot for a while, let me put it that way

You have not seen the things I have seen on this forum. =p

Anyway. Going to use the time I have this night phase and share whatever thoughts I have. I don’t do the NK shield game.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:55 pm If it's a tie, it's randomized.

I'd prefer not to have the chop result be randomized, so I'll switch back if it remains like this.

Do you never like randed yeets? I thought you were a marmot of chaos? =p

Ok, Hally. That’s good. You’re probably town, I’m just being careful. Do you remember how you town read me so fast? Had you been following the thread?

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:19 am oh right, that is true

but this is not worth considering atm

I’m going to decide what’s worth considering for me. =p

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:03 pm we can pretend i voted him because i thought he was super scummy, right?

Actually, why did you? You seemed pretty set on Radish or Tony during the day.

—

Also, yeah, the way Marmot thinks Radish’s post towards EoD is scummy as a possible defense of Made, yet still votes Radish over Made is kind of wonky.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:13 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:09 am
Marmot - Grabbed quotes that helped hanged Made. Unnecessary if scum.

*Pulls out last remaining hair*

No, I’m considering. It’s just I forgot you guys are way into totally unnecessary bussing lol

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:10 am oh I think the grabbing quote thing from marmot is definitely rand wolf given the flip :P

The thought crossed me tbh. But holy shit, the cindy katers and their obsession with bussing. You gotta stop doing that.

Here’s the people I think it makes sense to take out of the immediate PoE:

Tutu - Doesn’t bus with all that thread presence. Is also just town.
Jules - Refuse to believe they replace in to just bus a teammate.
Guillo - Was the target of Made.
Marmot - Grabbed quotes that helped hanged Made. Unnecessary if scum.
Sean - Was the only town read of Made. Looks TMI/buddying.

Should investigate: LC, Epi, Radish and Tony probably.

^Right. Thanks!

How do you iso on phone btw?

Yay. I’m still good at doing the mafia. I have to say I’m pretty proud of that soul read. And @Made you actually are me =p

Actually I may fall asleep

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:46 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:41 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:58 pm How's that for an obscure meta reference?

Pretty cool.

I did the same in champs qualifier. Guy was mafia the first time and town the other time. But don’t let that discourage you/us. It’s very possible Made is mafia.

You strike me as the kind of person who would never discourage anyone from doing anything.

This is an accurate read. =p

Hally could be town, but I don’t take it for granted. I feel like they king of smothered Radish a bit. Also, I have the softest spot for Radish.

I have no read on Radish. Getting stubborn and trolling more than playing isn’t very interesting. So I don’t care either way there.

I actually don’t hate Guillo’s pressure on Epi. I’m not good at reading Epi, as I think our processes are quite different, often. I had the feeling he seemed ok when reading his posts, but at the same time I don’t know if I can say confidently that Epi believes his pushes or reads. There might be something there.

Guillo has his own style. I’m leaning town mostly because he’s consistent with himself, but I really don’t know.

I do like Marmot’s find on Made. Probably makes Marmot town even. And Made flipping scum doesn’t seem all that unlikely for a D1 vote.

I’m town on Tutu, probably town for LC and Jules. I guess weaker town for Nanook, Sean has disagreeable opinions but could still easily be town.

Unsure on both Radish and Tony.

Don’t know if I mentioned everyone. Keeping my vote on Made, but we all know I love a good last minute wagon.

I think I’ll take a break for some baguette soon

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:58 pm How's that for an obscure meta reference?

Pretty cool.

I did the same in champs qualifier. Guy was mafia the first time and town the other time. But don’t let that discourage you/us. It’s very possible Made is mafia.

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:21 pm @Dyslexicon and @Hally, it seems like I remember from the spec chat perspective that Radishes didn't make significant contributions early in the champs finale game, similar to what I'm seeing here. Am I remembering that wrong?

Wasn’t as low as here, but he took his time to contribute. But that was champs, so he would never just not contribute.

Don’t know what he thinks he’ll gain from being stubborn here.

Oh. The bread.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:36 am though i really have no issues with jules. she’s just null but i’m not caught up

Leaning more and more town on Jules. Cooperative, not fake.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:22 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:51 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:13 pmIt is ridiculous to accuse me of not making myself obvious to read.

Consider this: Reason I've been focusing on you is that you are active, you are a good player, and you've come across pretty different than what I'm used to, which has been kind of jarring to me. Even if you think you're the most obvious town ever playing a game, it may not be as easy for others. Remember me in the space laser game lololololol

You also don't have a correct read on me, and I'm also not making myself obtuse imo. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So here we are.

dizzy, please. i read the game tutuu wolfed in. her tone was the same as it always is. tutuu can fake tone as mafia in her sleep. i really don’t think this is a thing you or anyone else should be hung up on

I never really scum read Tutu at all. I was curious to read her. Her assertion that everyone was doing it wrong and an attitude that I perceived as just wanting everyone to “do better” as in playing the way she wants to see, instead of letting people’s processes be has been pissing me off quite a bit. All game related, of course. Putting that aside though, I’m definitely listening to every point she’s making, and I believe our reads are not far off (to the extend I’ve had solid reads).

Thanks, Tutu and Juliets. I’m going to try and read through without commenting too much, and summarize (if I have) thoughts in the end. I really hate playing on my phone, but I guess I have to right now.