Bike [END]

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Bike

Poll ended at Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:01 pm

Epignosis
7
50%
Hally
0
No votes
juliets
1
7%
Long Con
0
No votes
Marmot
0
No votes
Master Radishes
0
No votes
Seanzie
0
No votes
tutuu
0
No votes
No Elimination
0
No votes
No vote / Unvote
0
No votes
Spoopy poopy (host/dead/non)
6
43%
 
Total votes: 14
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1451

Post by Hally »

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am I think a more salient question is whether Epi decides to shake off his quasi-retirement slumber to go full throttle in a game he rolls scum when he has in recent games been half throttle

I think it’s more likely he rolled town and his pride is goading him into playing hard
i don’t really think he was going full throttle D1
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1452

Post by Marmot »

Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:15 am
Epignosis wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:13 am
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:09 am
Marmot - Grabbed quotes that helped hanged Made. Unnecessary if scum.
*Pulls out last remaining hair*
No, I’m considering. It’s just I forgot you guys are way into totally unnecessary bussing lol

Since my return here, I've actually defended my teammates rather than bussing them since that's been more in vogue. It's been weird concept to learn since my teammates are always so obviously scummy.

Except for Shadow Corridor Mafia, where I happily bussed all of my teammates. Ignore that one. :biggrin:
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1453

Post by Marmot »

Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:15 am
Epignosis wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:13 am
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:09 am
Marmot - Grabbed quotes that helped hanged Made. Unnecessary if scum.
*Pulls out last remaining hair*
No, I’m considering. It’s just I forgot you guys are way into totally unnecessary bussing lol

Since my return here, I've actually defended my teammates rather than bussing them since that's been more in vogue. It's been weird concept to learn since my teammates are always so obviously scummy.

Except for Shadow Corridor Mafia, where I happily bussed all of my teammates. Ignore that one. :biggrin:
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1454

Post by Marmot »

Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:15 am
Epignosis wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:13 am
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:09 am
Marmot - Grabbed quotes that helped hanged Made. Unnecessary if scum.
*Pulls out last remaining hair*
No, I’m considering. It’s just I forgot you guys are way into totally unnecessary bussing lol

Since my return here, I've actually defended my teammates rather than bussing them since that's been more in vogue. It's been weird concept to learn since my teammates are always so obviously scummy.

Except for Shadow Corridor Mafia, where I happily bussed all of my teammates. Ignore that one. :biggrin:
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1455

Post by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME »

Hally wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:03 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am I think a more salient question is whether Epi decides to shake off his quasi-retirement slumber to go full throttle in a game he rolls scum when he has in recent games been half throttle

I think it’s more likely he rolled town and his pride is goading him into playing hard
i don’t really think he was going full throttle D1
A lot closer to full throttle than recent games, if you feel like splitting hairs 🤷‍♀️
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1456

Post by Marmot »

Well, I've double-posted before, but I don't think I've ever triple-posted. Oops
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bike [Day 1]

#1457

Post by Epignosis »

Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:02 pm
Made wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:58 pm So i've played games with everyone here (including Juliet :D ) besides Dyslexicon, Guillotine, Seanzie, and Snowmelts. Y'all from off world or just syndicats I've haven't met yet?

Either way- Hi! I'm Made. I play mafia on this site sometimes. My favorite color is purple, and I play the piano!
Hi, I'm Sean. My favorite color is also purple. I do not play the piano, and this is my first game on this site and 8th overall.
I play the piano and my mother's favorite color is purple!
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:36 pm
Made wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:35 pm So I iso'd Tutuu and half way through I caught myself reading all of her post in the voice of Mojo jojo.
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In of itself that's not alignment indicative, but like in combo with her 180 tone shift from Shadows it's sus

2 mafia down, looking for the last one now.
I think instead you should read it in the voice of Bubbles when Bubbles hit her head and thought she was Mojo Jojo.
No. Read it in the voice of HIM.
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:26 am
Made wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:14 am oh, townlean seanzie. he seems neat
Tell me more! Specifically how neat I am!

But seriously, any reason for the townlean?
I have no problem with this interaction.
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:33 am
Made wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:30 am
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:26 am
Made wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:14 am oh, townlean seanzie. he seems neat
Tell me more! Specifically how neat I am!

But seriously, any reason for the townlean?
I just like the cut of your jib. I can point to specific jibs if you'd like
Yes please!

I think in general jib is Nai.

Are you British?
So far much of these interactions are devoid of any attempt to figure each other out.
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:35 am
tutuu wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:31 am
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:31 am
tutuu wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:29 am [VOTE: Made] aubergine

If my reads are correct, this is the third town in a row Made has shaded. First it was me, then it was the Guillotina vote, and now Long Con.
Is Made sheeping me?
Not sure why are you asking me this question, I have no answer, I don't think there is anything important here.
Sorry, I didn't really mean it to be a question directed at you. I quoted your post because it made me realize that you, Guillotine and Long Con have been the people I have voted, an interesting coincidence. The question was intended to be more directed to the thread in general, sorry.
It took me a few times reading this to get it, but I think I do. Okay.
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:28 am I'm drunk and I feel like Dizzy and Guillotine are teamed.
Unrelated to Made, but saw it and had to include it.
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:11 pm
tutuu wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:52 pm No actually if Made flips wolf I believe that looks good if not great for Guillo
Is there an interaction I should look at to convince myself of this?
What I find incredulous about this is twofold:

First, Made hasn't made (ugh) that many posts.

Second, it's easy to see that on the surface, one can conclude that Guillotine is a viable alternative to a Made lynch.
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:39 pm Pretty quiet for EoD...
What's wrong with quiet? What do you expect to happen? Given that Made is mafia, what should have happened in the thirty minutes before the vote locked?
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:45 pm I am a bit worried. If there are three wolves, I can't imagine they are all on one wagon trying to save their scummate right now. Unless if both Guillotine and Made are wolves, I feel like there would be more activity trying to move wagons around. Made did try to move votes onto MR, which is interesting, but other than that, the quiet is creeping me out.
How do you interpret Master Radishes and Guillotine now that you know Made is bad?
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:46 pm @TonyStarkPrime , @Hally y, if you had to choose to vote for one of Made or Guillotine, who would it be?
Here's a prompt to get people to act one way or another. I don't hate it on it's own.
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:51 pm I wish I was one of the votes for Made right now so I could unvote and create tension to see what happens. I hate how quiet it is. Is this a usual EoD here?
The urge to "create tension" is a request for others to move their votes or for others to grant permission, as it were, for Seanzie to move.

If you are a civilian, vote wherever the hell you want in the interim, observe, and just make sure your vote is where you want it in the end.
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:54 pm
Marmot wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:53 pm [VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine

There's your spiciness sean.
Thanks, lets see what happens!
Marmot granted the spicy wish.
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:57 pm [VOTE: Master Radish] aubergine I don't like how quiet the thread is leading up to a Made or Guillotine lunch...
Marmot and Seanzie both ended up voting with Made for Master Radishes.

That's a mess.

Seanzie has to share the headless doll with Marmot, but the drawing room is getting full and the wrestling mat is so spacious.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1458

Post by Marmot »

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am I think a more salient question is whether Epi decides to shake off his quasi-retirement slumber to go full throttle in a game he rolls scum when he has in recent games been half throttle

I think it’s more likely he rolled town and his pride is goading him into playing hard

And this game is full of so many wonderful people and Epignosis is excited to play with us all!!!!!!!!!!
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1459

Post by tutuu »

I think bussing is generally bad but after seeing recently how poorly some Scum players play I think that you just have to bus them to cut your losses otherwise you can't win the game.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1460

Post by TonyStarkPrime »

Hally wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am tony have you explained why nook is “hmm” to you?
nanook feels like he is relaxing in the lazy river, content to flow through the game, checking off boxes as he will. this is not towny.

but

the epi read is

good
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1461

Post by Epignosis »

Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:54 am Can someone confirm that Epi is against bussing? I’ve probably heard it before. I feel none of his votes D1 were strong, and it seems like he just ended on Made randomly almost.

Jules would never bus in that manner, I don’t think.
I've done it perhaps three or four times, once deliberately for fun and the other times due to circumstance.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1462

Post by tutuu »

Well it depends on how poorly the town is playing too. If they are also playing poorly maybe you can get away with not bussing.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1463

Post by Dyslexicon »

Marmot wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:15 pm My current rainbow looks like this.


Marmot
Dyslexicon
Seanzie
tutuu
Epignosis
Guillotine
snowmelts/Hally
juliets

Long Con
Master Radishes
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

TonyStarkPrime
Can’t really argue with this list.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1464

Post by Marmot »

TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:11 am
Hally wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am tony have you explained why nook is “hmm” to you?
nanook feels like he is relaxing in the lazy river, content to flow through the game, checking off boxes as he will. this is not towny.

but

the epi read is

good

The Epi read on who?
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1465

Post by Epignosis »

Marmot wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:58 am
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:54 am Can someone confirm that Epi is against bussing? I’ve probably heard it before. I feel none of his votes D1 were strong, and it seems like he just ended on Made randomly almost.

Jules would never bus in that manner, I don’t think.
I think I've only seen it happen once. He bussed DDL Day 1 in a game a while back, and it was pretty glorious to watch. I forget, but I think it was even a pre-meditated bus. This is kind of a pitiful attempt at a bus by his standards if that's what happened this game.

Then again, I've been away for 2 years and have missed a lot.
That was Guess Who?, and it was indeed DDL. I said to him, "Can I throw you under the bus? I've never done that sort of thing." We did it and won. Fun format Elohcin and I made up together.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1466

Post by TonyStarkPrime »

While we're talking on it, the problem with bussing is that it assumes that towns act rationally and won't be paranoid, while 1) it should be to the advantage of the wolves if town does not do these things and 2) town never does these things
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1467

Post by TonyStarkPrime »

Marmot wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:14 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:11 am
Hally wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am tony have you explained why nook is “hmm” to you?
nanook feels like he is relaxing in the lazy river, content to flow through the game, checking off boxes as he will. this is not towny.

but

the epi read is

good

The Epi read on who?
I should say the nanook observation on epi. it's not exactly a read
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1468

Post by Guillotine »

Wait a minute, if it's night how is it that everyone is posting still? Host forgot to close it?
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1469

Post by Epignosis »

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am I think a more salient question is whether Epi decides to shake off his quasi-retirement slumber to go full throttle in a game he rolls scum when he has in recent games been half throttle

I think it’s more likely he rolled town and his pride is goading him into playing hard
I'm still retired. This is recreational.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1470

Post by TonyStarkPrime »

Guillotine wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:15 am Wait a minute, if it's night how is it that everyone is posting still? Host forgot to close it?
open nights are a syndicate staple
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1471

Post by Epignosis »

Guillotine wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:15 am Wait a minute, if it's night how is it that everyone is posting still? Host forgot to close it?
AW SHIT WE ALL FIXIN TO BE NIGHT KILLED :omg:
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1472

Post by Marmot »

Guillotine wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:15 am Wait a minute, if it's night how is it that everyone is posting still? Host forgot to close it?
Rulebreaker!
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1473

Post by Guillotine »

Bruh. I work 12 hours a day, I was hoping I could catch up. Did it say in the sign ups it was open night?
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1474

Post by Dyslexicon »

TonyStarkPrime wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:17 pm
Why is dizzy in your voltron?
I literally caught Made from his first post on D1 lol
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1475

Post by Epignosis »

tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:09 am I think bussing is generally bad but after seeing recently how poorly some Scum players play I think that you just have to bus them to cut your losses otherwise you can't win the game.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1476

Post by Dyslexicon »

Guillotine wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:17 am Bruh. I work 12 hours a day, I was hoping I could catch up. Did it say in the sign ups it was open night?
No, it’s just a thing here. It’s weird, I know. Should probably warn new players about it.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1477

Post by Epignosis »

Quick takes on Guillotine's reaction to night posting. Go.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1478

Post by Marmot »

Epignosis wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:19 am Quick takes on Guillotine's reaction to night posting. Go.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1479

Post by Epignosis »

Marmot wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:21 am
Epignosis wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:19 am Quick takes on Guillotine's reaction to night posting. Go.
NAI
Anyone else? I feel differently.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1480

Post by Guillotine »

Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:18 am
Guillotine wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:17 am Bruh. I work 12 hours a day, I was hoping I could catch up. Did it say in the sign ups it was open night?
No, it’s just a thing here. It’s weird, I know. Should probably warn new players about it.
Ppppffff

I will not read anything that happened during Day 1 then but I will say this.

I deserve no credit for voting on Made. I did it for just two reasons:

1) Self-Preservation
2) And I sheeped tutuu whom I town read.

To say that I voted Made thanks to my own due process would be a lie.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1481

Post by Seanzie »

Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:34 pm
Hally wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:16 pm
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:13 pm I feel like the fact that the vote was 5 (guillotine) to 6 (Made) for quite a while up until very close to EoD, it is unlikely that we had a busser. I'd guess there were two scum on Guilotine's wagon and 1 on MR (assuming there are three scum in the game) before I moved to MR.
eh, it’s very hard to draw reliable conclusions from wagons in this way because there’s so many reasons why the votes could be as they are and wolves often don’t have a coherent voting strategy

to be clear, for this analysis are you assuming guillo is town? why?
That is true, I'm definitely not saying there ABSOLUTELY were 2 wolves on Guillotine and one on MR, just that I think it is the most likely breakdown.

I feel like if I wouldn't have moved to MR, we would have ended with 5 votes on Guillotine and 6 on Made. I think it is unlikely if Guillotine is scum that we would have had 11/13 votes on scum. Maybe town is just super good and mafia is bussing a lot, but it just seems like a lot. So, I'd guess based off the wagons that Guillotine is town.
Sean, can you explain this a little bit more? Before the flip you mentioned that you thought Made and Guillo was either t/t or s/s, but after the flip you more so assume Guillo.

I’m not quite following your rationale.
You know, that is a great question, and I don't know if I have a great answer. Before the flip, the T/T or S/S guess was based mostly just on the idea that it was really quiet, so I didn't think it was T/S since if it was, it was too close for scum to not be trying to do something to save their scummate.

After the flip, I guessed Guillotine is town just based on number of votes. If Guillotine is scum, 11/13 votes were on scum. Given that Hally was one of the two people not on Guillotine or Made, and I am feeling good about Town!Hally, this would mean that at most one scum wasn't bussing, and possibly all three were, which just seems excessive, plus town is batting really well - a lot better than they usually do in my experience if Guillotine is scum too.

People have been mentioning that there is a lot of bussing on this site though, so I am starting to rethink Guillotine. To be honest, I'm not completely sure what I think about EoD yet.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1482

Post by Marmot »

I think this is Guillotine's first game here, so if he's scum, he might not necessarily be aware of the Syndicate bussing style.

Made didn't bus either of his teammates in the Christmastime mafia game. I think the closest he got was null-reading one teammate while the other was a townread.



But I should probably consider a world where Guillotine is mafia, and that was why Made opted to push a MR chop instead of Guillotine.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1483

Post by Marmot »

Before I swapped to MR, I believe the tally was as follows.

Made - 6
Guillotine - 5
Radish - 2



I dunno. Just from a tally perspective, it makes sense for Made to try to convince me to chop Guillotine here if he's town, not MR.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1484

Post by Dyslexicon »

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:24 pm
Hally wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:20 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:18 pm There’s probably a difference check between guillo and radishes and radishes is probably the town
difference check how? also why do you think radishy is the town over guillo?
Don’t think there’s more than one busser

Assuming made wagon is at least five town, wagons being 6/4/3 is weird

If they’re both town it’s much more likely mafia coalesce around one, if guillo is town he makes more sense imo due to the parked vote(s) on him

And radishes doesn’t super make sense as partners with made given votes, unless mafia just decided to bus bus bus

So I think good odds that guillo/radishes are not both town and that radishes is the town
Continuing this.

I don’t have an overview of how close the wagons were as I wasn’t present. If anyone can be bothered to make one, that would be super cool.

There are some relevant questions:
Why try to make Radish the yeet over Guillo? Was it more likely at the time that Radish’s would go through?

I understand the notion of the “difference check”, though I’m not sure it has to be true.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1485

Post by tutuu »

You guys are bringing good arguments for why Guillo could be scum.
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Re: Bike [Day 1]

#1486

Post by Epignosis »

TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:38 am
tutuu wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:04 am
Marmot wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:04 am
tutuu wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:45 pm Image

Sort by postcount.
Why are Made and snowmelts green??
Because I desired to sort by post count and there are 3 mafia and there are 3 people I scumread and those people are not Made and snowmelts.
I simply don’t understand what’s going on here
I would expect Tony to ask questions and determine what's going on here. Doesn't happen.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:10 am
Made wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:51 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:19 am
Dyslexicon wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:07 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:00 am The tonal shift is the /only/ thing about it that’s town. Tutuu’s posts are probably rand wolf from a player of her caliber but just the sun of it is undeniable

Linki: jesus don’t everyone change the subject all at once
Marmot I’m town which means I don’t care which means please carry me
Um. The tonal shift is what made me suspect or rather just thrown off in the first place. What do you mean that her posts are rand wolf from a player of her caliber? Why is tonal shift town?
It’s intentional, wolves don’t do that. The posts are rand wolf because I think a lot of them are scummy but that doesn’t matter because tutuu is town and thus all her posts are town
Wolves aren't intentional? that's a weird take
wolves very rarely intentionally do wolfy things :P
I don't agree with Tony, but I don't know what to make of this exchange.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:10 am
tutuu wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:25 am With risk of tunneling and apologies to TSP in advance if I'm wrong, the posts he's making remind me of the scum game he played in that Russian something something game where he kept distancing and scumreading and interacting with his partners. (His posts towards Made and MR here)
I haven’t interacted with either of these people :P
This is demonstrably untrue (see above). Still, I don't know what to make of it.

TSP can sit in the corner until I figure out what to do with him. This is the most inconclusive person I've investigated.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1487

Post by Epignosis »

I'm not doing tutuu. Fuck that.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1488

Post by Dyslexicon »

Seanzie wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:24 am
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:34 pm
Hally wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:16 pm
Seanzie wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:13 pm I feel like the fact that the vote was 5 (guillotine) to 6 (Made) for quite a while up until very close to EoD, it is unlikely that we had a busser. I'd guess there were two scum on Guilotine's wagon and 1 on MR (assuming there are three scum in the game) before I moved to MR.
eh, it’s very hard to draw reliable conclusions from wagons in this way because there’s so many reasons why the votes could be as they are and wolves often don’t have a coherent voting strategy

to be clear, for this analysis are you assuming guillo is town? why?
That is true, I'm definitely not saying there ABSOLUTELY were 2 wolves on Guillotine and one on MR, just that I think it is the most likely breakdown.

I feel like if I wouldn't have moved to MR, we would have ended with 5 votes on Guillotine and 6 on Made. I think it is unlikely if Guillotine is scum that we would have had 11/13 votes on scum. Maybe town is just super good and mafia is bussing a lot, but it just seems like a lot. So, I'd guess based off the wagons that Guillotine is town.
Sean, can you explain this a little bit more? Before the flip you mentioned that you thought Made and Guillo was either t/t or s/s, but after the flip you more so assume Guillo.

I’m not quite following your rationale.
You know, that is a great question, and I don't know if I have a great answer. Before the flip, the T/T or S/S guess was based mostly just on the idea that it was really quiet, so I didn't think it was T/S since if it was, it was too close for scum to not be trying to do something to save their scummate.

After the flip, I guessed Guillotine is town just based on number of votes. If Guillotine is scum, 11/13 votes were on scum. Given that Hally was one of the two people not on Guillotine or Made, and I am feeling good about Town!Hally, this would mean that at most one scum wasn't bussing, and possibly all three were, which just seems excessive, plus town is batting really well - a lot better than they usually do in my experience if Guillotine is scum too.

People have been mentioning that there is a lot of bussing on this site though, so I am starting to rethink Guillotine. To be honest, I'm not completely sure what I think about EoD yet.
I see. I think the idea of “scum would try to save" can be faulty here, since quite a few people weren’t around. If scum wasn’t around, obviously they can’t do anything. In fact, who was around at EoD.

But thanks for explaining. I think you’re town, since I don’t think your interaction with Made looks like teammates at all. His town read especially looked tmi to me.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1489

Post by Epignosis »

One more drink and then I'm out for the evening.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1490

Post by TonyStarkPrime »

Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:18 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:17 pm
Why is dizzy in your voltron?
I literally caught Made from his first post on D1 lol
This wasn’t Hally’s answer though
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1491

Post by Dyslexicon »

TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:52 am
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:18 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:17 pm
Why is dizzy in your voltron?
I literally caught Made from his first post on D1 lol
This wasn’t Hally’s answer though
It kind if was. Even if not - so what? I’m confirmed town.com. Get into it.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1492

Post by TonyStarkPrime »

I have you in my town core stop complaining
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1493

Post by Dyslexicon »

I think I’m at this -

Town:
Tutu
Jules
Epi
Sean

Probably town:
Hally

Could go both ways:
Guillo (feeling town)
Nanook (feeling town)
Marmot

Direct PoE:
Radish
Tony
LC
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1494

Post by Dyslexicon »

I don’t like how LC (weakly) shaded Sean at the beginning of the night either.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1495

Post by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME »

TonyStarkPrime wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:11 am
Hally wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:02 am tony have you explained why nook is “hmm” to you?
nanook feels like he is relaxing in the lazy river, content to flow through the game, checking off boxes as he will. this is not towny.

but

the epi read is

good
It unironically is
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1496

Post by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME »

Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:32 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:24 pm
Hally wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:20 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:18 pm There’s probably a difference check between guillo and radishes and radishes is probably the town
difference check how? also why do you think radishy is the town over guillo?
Don’t think there’s more than one busser

Assuming made wagon is at least five town, wagons being 6/4/3 is weird

If they’re both town it’s much more likely mafia coalesce around one, if guillo is town he makes more sense imo due to the parked vote(s) on him

And radishes doesn’t super make sense as partners with made given votes, unless mafia just decided to bus bus bus

So I think good odds that guillo/radishes are not both town and that radishes is the town
Continuing this.

I don’t have an overview of how close the wagons were as I wasn’t present. If anyone can be bothered to make one, that would be super cool.

There are some relevant questions:
Why try to make Radish the yeet over Guillo? Was it more likely at the time that Radish’s would go through?

I understand the notion of the “difference check”, though I’m not sure it has to be true.
Of course it doesn’t HAVE to be true, but I think there’s a good chance it is. Like 80ish %
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1497

Post by Dyslexicon »

Yeah, but it could be Radish too? Why not keep the vote on Guillo if you’re Made and you already decided to bus Guillo earlier? Why switch off the last second to try and make a wagon on Radish if Radish is town and Guillo is scum, when it didn’t look particularly likely Radish was going to get yeeted anyway? It doesn’t make sense. Unless they are literally all the scum team lol

I think it looks worse for Radish than for Guillo the more I think about it.
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1498

Post by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME »

Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:25 am Yeah, but it could be Radish too? Why not keep the vote on Guillo if you’re Made and you already decided to bus Guillo earlier? Why switch off the last second to try and make a wagon on Radish if Radish is town and Guillo is scum, when it didn’t look particularly likely Radish was going to get yeeted anyway? It doesn’t make sense. Unless they are literally all the scum team lol

I think it looks worse for Radish than for Guillo the more I think about it.
I’ll answer your question with another question

If made and guillo are both mafia which would you prefer survive D1?
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1499

Post by Dyslexicon »

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:32 am
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:25 am Yeah, but it could be Radish too? Why not keep the vote on Guillo if you’re Made and you already decided to bus Guillo earlier? Why switch off the last second to try and make a wagon on Radish if Radish is town and Guillo is scum, when it didn’t look particularly likely Radish was going to get yeeted anyway? It doesn’t make sense. Unless they are literally all the scum team lol

I think it looks worse for Radish than for Guillo the more I think about it.
I’ll answer your question with another question

If made and guillo are both mafia which would you prefer survive D1?
Wouldn’t care much, personally. Both.

Why is this a relevant question?
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Re: Bike [Night 1]

#1500

Post by Dyslexicon »

Didn’t I have an inkling of a Radish/Guillo connection earlier? I don’t know how valid this is, but it would be hilarious if that was the team.

I’d place Guillo over Radish though, based on Made’s switch off of Guillo. If Made is about to go down and has a bus vote on Guillo, it makes sense to just keep it to set up his teammate for success, or alternatively gain cred if Guillo gains more votes. Jumping off to a lesser town wagon makes much less sense imo, especially when Made in this scenario would’ve already made the conscious decision to place a bus vote on Guillo.

So Guillo is only scum if it’s with Radish, is my conclusion off of this. Thoughts?
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