The Syndicate

Actual last post before I go to bed: Colin is scummier than Epi right now. Every one of his posts in this EoD, from the attempts to divert onto TSP, to the awful tinfoil, to this defense of Epi, are bad. Get rid of him tomorrow and investigate Epi tonight.

I do think Epi is a wolf and I feel like some amount of his inactivity is due to real life reasons (I believe him about wanting to take a break from mafia, I don't think he'd lie about that). I do think he gives off the "I'm caught, let's just throw as much shit as I can at Alison" so she goes down with me vibe a lot.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:35 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:34 pm do Epi/Alison vote for each other to the death? Do they have another saving option?

This "thunderdome" does not dissociate them in my view, especially as Epignosis just drifts through the day tossing token complaints at Alison every five hours.

This is probably slightly town I guess since JJJ seems to be setting up really hard to execute Epi after I flip wolf, and if he's wolf he knows I won't, so it indicates that he genuinely believes I am a wolf

Everything Colin and Tony are saying right now has super vindicated my decision to try to shut people down when they bring up silly tinfoils.

I don't think I can stay up for this EoD sorry. If you guys want to do some "hot potato" stuff or whatever count me out. Here's what I want to say in case I die.

- Listen to my legacy. Once I die, I am confirmed town. Read everything I've said this day phase with the realization that it comes from confirmed town who genuinely believes everything she is saying. If you have any doubts about what my stances are, ask them now. I think I've made it extremely clear who I think is town, who I think is scum, and how I think town should proceed forward from this game.

- Look at the way the wagon developed on me, the progression of the votes, and who the wagon was trying to protect. I do not believe that wagon formed in a legitimate way. I singled out JJJ, Sabie, Epi and Colin as the ones who look the worst from the wagon formation on me, and while I don't think literally all of them are scum, you would be well served by looking into that group.

I'm tired of people questioning me when I think my reasoning is logically sound. If you want to exe me, have at it, use the information from my flip to narrow down the field of possible suspects, and solve the game. I do not mind dying if my death serves my team's win condition - as mentioned, I am a pragmatic player, not an egoistical one. I'll be responding to linkis after this and then winding down for the night.

Make good decisions.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:21 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:11 pmI am comfortable saying that nothing I have seen from TSP, Colin or Epi has made me change my mind about putting them in POE. [...] They have all done things I find highly objectionable, compared to everyone in the towncore, who either have done nothing but things I find townie, or are mechanically cleared.

I have no problems shifting members of the POE to towncore if I think they have done something that looks townie. But they haven't here. Certainly not to the extent that I'd bloat out the towncore until it has to contain a mafioso.

I just find it very hard to believe that you have seen nothing from the 3 of us that you would think “hm, maybe they’re town”. And that you have people in this game where you’ve read every one of their posts and thought to all of them “yep, they’re town!”

You keep insisting that there’s an objective towncore that we all agree on but outside of mechanical clears there just isn’t. It feels super disingenuous and as if you want to lead is to a number of mischops (mine included in there) in order to piddle the town’s good gamestate away.

Why do you find this hard to believe

you three have just done nothing that I strongly like

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:13 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:06 pm Do not hot potato to Tony. Force the mafia to choose between Epi and me. If Epi is a wolf member, they are put in a very awkward spot where they have to either bus in a very close tie, or put the spotlight on themselves by voting me. It places them in a very difficult situation and they can wriggle free of that by voting Tony if the vote veers in that direction.

Yeah but what if Epi is town and Tony isn’t

Could be. I'm fairly confident Epi is scum, but not 100%. But I think Epi has high enough scum equity that I'm not going to let go of a chance to possibly make his teammates reveal themselves by associatives. For an execute on Tony to be more correct than executing between me and Epi, Epi has to be town and Tony has to not be town. If either of those things are untrue, it is better to execute between Epi and me. (If Tony is town, executing him leaves us back at square one with the me/Epi situation unresolved.) So since the probability that all of those things are true is less than probability that not all of those things are true, it is correct to execute between me and Epi.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:47 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:41 pmfirst of all, quote where I said you were a suspect because of your POE approach. literally quote it or I'm calling you out for lying about what I said

You told me I was suspicious for focusing more on finding civilians than on finding mafia instead of doing both. I don't need to go fetch that. You know what I am referring to.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:41 pmthird of all, you are free to question the suspects in the POE group and figure out which ones of them are the scummiest, which ones of them give you the most information, or even which ones of them project town hard enough that you wish to shift them to the towncore. What I oppose is doing the opposite, casting doubt on and attacking the people in the towncore.

There is one element of this dynamic that you continue to disregard, and it's at the core of what concerns me.

If anyone begins to see civilian indicators from players within the POE pool, then that must by default result in challenging players outside the pool -- someone has to be a mafioso. You'll note a few players in recent memory have voiced impressions that both Tony and Colin have looked better in recent content. This means that they have to reshape their view of the game to account for that. Are you saying then that you have not seen a single interesting thing from either of those players, or from Epignosis, that warrants your reconsideration of their posture? I'm not even saying you have to change your mind -- just reassess. Nothing has inspired that to any degree? Is that accurate?

No, I said clearly that it was scummy in a vacuum but not scummy in the context of your play.

Also:

1) I haven't seen any civillian indicators in anyone in the POE except myself.

2) Any civillian indicators would have to be stronger than the things that clear the towncore for me to push out members of the towncore in favor of people from the POE, which is a high barto clear.

I am comfortable saying that nothing I have seen from TSP, Colin or Epi has made me change my mind about putting them in POE. Some stuff have changed the position they're in within the POE, but the idea of booting out someone from the towncore to make space for them is absurd to me. They have all done things I find highly objectionable, compared to everyone in the towncore, who either have done nothing but things I find townie, or are mechanically cleared.

I have no problems shifting members of the POE to towncore if I think they have done something that looks townie. But they haven't here. Certainly not to the extent that I'd bloat out the towncore until it has to contain a mafioso.

Anyone voting people other than Epi or me should be treated as highly suspect.

Do not hot potato to Tony. Force the mafia to choose between Epi and me. If Epi is a wolf member, they are put in a very awkward spot where they have to either bus in a very close tie, or put the spotlight on themselves by voting me. It places them in a very difficult situation and they can wriggle free of that by voting Tony if the vote veers in that direction.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:34 pm Alison your general approach to this game is hard to buy. For a while you called me a suspect because of my orientation toward a POE approach (even as I named and cased suspects along the way). Now your adherence to the POE is more radical than anything I have ever espoused in this game. It's more radical than anything Nanook ever espoused in this game.

By the Alison method, we don't sort players in our POE group. We just chop them. The end. No discussion. No chatter. Nothing. Don't talk to them. Just kill them and go from there. That's glorified i n f o - c h o p p i n g and does not reflect the dedicated hunt of the uninformed faction.

first of all, quote where I said you were a suspect because of your POE approach. literally quote it or I'm calling you out for lying about what I said

second of all, I am a pragmatic player, not an egoistical one. I play in the way I think will maximize my team's chance of winning, not in the way I like the most, not in the way I am most comfortable with, not in the way I think mafia should be played. I have in public voiced my hatred of overly-mechanical setups and forcing wins through mechanics rather than reads vs manipulation - but my strategy in Space Invaders endgame was literally pure mechanics and counting the bunkers to run them out.

On day 1 I do not believe that POE was necessarily the most optimal way to play (although you will note that I called it "especially suited to the context of the game"). Now I believe that it is; and I further believe that opposing the POE is the most optimal way to play for mafia in this situation (even if they have someone embedded in the towncore). Therefore I choose to rigidly adhere to the strategy that I believe is optimal for town and rigidly oppose the strategy that I believe is optimal for mafia.

third of all, you are free to question the suspects in the POE group and figure out which ones of them are the scummiest, which ones of them give you the most information, or even which ones of them project town hard enough that you wish to shift them to the towncore. What I oppose is doing the opposite, casting doubt on and attacking the people in the towncore.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:29 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:15 pmWhat do you mean "prior preparation"

In this scenario many of the towncore would be killed by mafia in the first place, so those kills will inform your hunting for the deepwolf far better than throwing out baseless speculation while we're still in the POE

If the first effort given toward vigilant investigation of "town core" players is at or near Exlo, then the probability of that town getting the answer right is well lower than it needs to be. I think your second sentence is completely untrue, because speculation is not "baseless"; at least not anymore than speculation about what makes the POE pool valid.

It is baseless in the sense that it flies in the face of <whatever it is we believe makes the towncore cleared>

Like if I went out there right now and called Wisp scum, that would be baseless because we have strong evidence that Wisp is town, and doing so would only be hurtful to town. I believe the same is true for all members of the towncore.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:30 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:16 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:30 pm The suddenness of this attack on me really feels like an attempt to counterwagon Epi tbh

who's trying to counterwagon epi?

You should answer this question, Alison.

epi, colin, you, sabie

are individuals I think look bad once I flip town

(please remember and refer to this post once I flip thanks)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:06 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:04 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:39 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:26 pm I agree.

Imagine a hypothetical world wherein you have chopped two among [Colin, Tony, Epignosis] and both have flipped civilian. It's ExLo now. Have you done your job as a civilian?

Obviously not since I still need to catch scum?

The point is that your methodology has, in that scenario, walked the civilian team to ExLo without any prior preparation for the alternative theorizing or tinfoiling that would then be a necessity.

What do you mean "prior preparation"

In this scenario many of the towncore would be killed by mafia in the first place, so those kills will inform your hunting for the deepwolf far better than throwing out baseless speculation while we're still in the POE

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:39 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:26 pm I agree.

Imagine a hypothetical world wherein you have chopped two among [Colin, Tony, Epignosis] and both have flipped civilian. It's ExLo now. Have you done your job as a civilian?

Obviously not since I still need to catch scum?

Like way too many people piled on me in way too short period of time. I think scum is just happy to exe me because it saves Epi, and that reinforces my feeling on Epi. Either way I think it's incorrect to vote outside of me and Epi today. In fact I would find it actively suspicious not to.

The suddenness of this attack on me really feels like an attempt to counterwagon Epi tbh

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:38 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:50 pm Really I think you're way more focused on coordination and POE than actually making a list of the people on the scum team. I understand this is your playstyle which is why I'm not scumreading you for it, and in theory it comes to the same conclusion as straight scumreading people, but it only really bears fruit (ie. identifies the scum team) very late in the game by definition because it involves a slow process of elimination. So obviously as early as N1 I can't say that you've actually tried very hard to pin down the mafia.

"Townies should try to find other townies, and also try to find scum members. JJJ finds other townies, but not scum members. This is ordinarily scummy, but since it's a part of JJJ's meta, and is also suited to this game, I'll accept it."

Wisp wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:14 pm I saw somewhere that you made of PoE of like 4 including you, but you also don't want to focus the millers
so it just pings me

What does "don't want to focus the millers" mean? I don't understand that part.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:58 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:54 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:45 pm Hey, you know me, I just like to go with the flow. You're in the POE, so I guess my vote is pretty legit. Sorry if I sprinkle in my own gut reads while I vote you.

I'm not disappointed in your for voting me (although I will try to get you to move your vote off me for obvious reasons). I will, however, be very disappointed if you and the rest of town don't follow my legacy.

Speaking of which: both me and Epi are in the POE. Why do you find me more suspicious than Epi?

You said you're a Miller, right? He can be checked and you can't. He's still a suspect.

It's a reasonable vote from your point of view. That's why I said I'm not disappointed in you for voting me.

Wisp wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:59 pm @Alison
Why are you ok being in the POE, if you are against focusing the millers?

The only way I think mafia are winning this game, is if 1 or 2 are in the miller claims. Because we now have people that need to die, which means we don't get much new information from kills
Hally/Me/Long Con/Nutella/Daisy

I don't understand this question.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:57 pm If you have a reason to clear Kitsu then you need to go ahead and claim it. But I don’t think you do because you keep saying we can get to her after the POE is exhausted, and if she was definitively cleared, you would never entertain the idea.

The reason I have to clear Kitsu is public - I think her claim was a genuine townslip and her play has been townie to me.

Also everyone not in my POE is cleared. If the POE is exhausted and the game hasn't ended that means someone, somehow, has a fake clear on them. Under those circumstances, I would re-evaluate my read on Kitsu. Not before then.

Wisp wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:53 pm You claimed miller correct @Alison ?

Yes.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:45 pm Hey, you know me, I just like to go with the flow. You're in the POE, so I guess my vote is pretty legit. Sorry if I sprinkle in my own gut reads while I vote you.

I'm not disappointed in your for voting me (although I will try to get you to move your vote off me for obvious reasons). I will, however, be very disappointed if you and the rest of town don't follow my legacy.

Speaking of which: both me and Epi are in the POE. Why do you find me more suspicious than Epi?

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:58 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:07 am I find Alison's hard dedication to a POE with her in it to be a possible ploy for cred. I found some of her recent posts too rigid at best, revealingly adverby at times, and suspicious at worst.

[VOTE: alison] aubergine

Yes I remember also mentioning earlier that I felt like alison is being pushy about people doing things a certain way or voting a specific set of people and she has been resistive to people deviating from that. Like she has a plan for how it all should all play out or how she wants it all to play out. I think pushing checkers to check the same person and reveal who they're checking may not be in best interest of town.

As town, I have strong views about how the game should be played in order to maximize chances of victory, and will attempt to persuade people to adhere to those views. I often have plans for how the game should be won, especially in contexts like this where there is a clear set of scummy and non-scummy people and the path to victory consists of eliminating the scummy people while protecting the cleared town.

Do you believe that?

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:49 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:24 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:31 am Like, what good is the “consensus POE” (if there is one) if I’m in it? Because I know that’s a dead end. I don’t need you to tell me who to look at it if I’m supposed to be one of those people.

Reminder: I am in the consensus POE. I will try to get other people within that POE executed first because I know I am town, but it doesn't stop me from believing in it. I am happy to be sorted within the context of that POE, either by investigation or by execution, because I believe that this gives information to the town that will help it win. Town's biggest advantage this game is the hefty list of confirmed townies that it has. This list will only shorten as the days go by and scum make their kills. Therefore it is important to rapidly sort out the alignments of those not within the confirmed town pool, balancing speed with surety, in order to root out the mafia.

I just don’t buy that you as a civilian have a total unwillingness to reshape your POE to include or exclude non-cleared players when we haven’t even caught a single scum yet. This post does nothing to explain or address anything.

Everyone who isn't in my POE is cleared. That is why I am rigid about it.

(Then the investigative team checks TSP and we flip Colin, which clears out the entire POE from my point of view without missing any investigations. We don't need to keep nonmillers alive in order to clear out the POE in good time.)

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:29 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 5:18 pm at this stage in the game I am not going to believe any late miller claims. anyone who hasn't claimed miller yet will be assumed to not be a miller and any red checks on them by SD will be treated as legitimate

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:59 am PoE, ordered from most to least preferred exes

Colin > epi > TSP > nutella

Just realized that we should probably focus investigates on the nonmiller slots so SD and Wisp can both be on them. I can't remember if Epi claimed miller - he would be a good investigation target if not.

I am not a miller. I can be checked, as you've noted. Why are you voting for me?

Because if you are executed today, I will not be executed today.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:26 am I mean, if we truly adopted that mindset then Epignosis would never have become a suspect, let alone a player with 4 votes right now. He spent much of the game outside the suspect pool. He didn't find himself there now merely because Long Con and nutella checked out as civilians. The game changed.

Epi was never the towncore of anyone except nanook. I would have shielded him if he had been soft cleared in the way Kitsu was, and people tried to attack him because he hadn't done anything. The difference is that suspecting Epi doesn't undermine the integrity of the POE, which is what I oppose.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:17 am I do not think Alison was making sound arguments on a few points:

1) Calling for both alignment checkers to target one player frees up a mafia redirector to interfere with someone else. She justified this by referring to having the co-alignment check be on a "town target", as in one everyone agrees upon, instead of a "individual choice target". This reasoning is not good on two fronts. We're getting a's and b's:

~~~~ a) There's no actual guiding principle that makes a generally-agreed target a better target than an individual choice target.
~~~~ b) Even if there was, the gains would not be sufficient to justify freeing up the mafia redirector.

2) Scolding the game at large for voicing some concerns about KitsuShel, particularly via team dynamics with her, while Kitsu had zero votes and Alison had four votes. This means her scolding did not reflect the circumstances of the game at hand, were largely unnecessary, and eventually ended in her calling for a POE-centric chop when the present wagons were already POE-centric.

~~~~ a) If Kitsu is town, this doesn't justify anything. Given that Alison's dialogue wasn't necessary in the first place, the only other apparent motivation for its existence that I view as sensible would be a mafia Alison trying to pocket a town Kitsu.
~~~~ b) If Kitsu is mafia, then it isn't hard to break through the generic WIFOM and see Alison trying to "play optimally" by securing her teammate's posture in a town core.

So either way that bugs me.

1a) Yes there is. Deciding something by consensus prevents people from "going rogue" and targeting someone completely irrelevant out of paranoia (I have seen it happen and I have seen games thrown because of it, and if you've played a bunch of mafia games, you probably have to) or simply because of a misunderstanding of the game state. Furthermore, the interactions created by the discussion on who to consolidate the investigation on can often reveal people's alignment.

1b) Freeing up the mafia redirector to do what? Hally isn't using her role. You don't have a redirectable role. Colin, if he is town, is holstering. Is the mafia redirector going to take a random shot in the dark at some player who might well have an inapplicable role or be holstering that night? Be my guest. Unless the mafia redirector blindly lands a shot on a player who A) has a targetable role, B) is using that role tonight, and C) can cause great disaster by misaiming their role, we have lost nothing. I am perfectly fine with accepting that risk - it is not as great as you make it out to be.

2) I oppose and will continue to oppose actions that attempt to undermine the integrity of the towncore. I have no reason to suspect the towncore is invalid at this stage in the game, and every reason to suspect that the mafia are clamped in the POE and have strong incentives to cast shade on those in the towncore to try to widen the POE. Voicing suspicion of Kitsu means we give less credence to her voice and waste time chasing shadows (like the Epi/Alison/Kitsu team). I am not scolding the thread for suspecting Kitsu because I am afraid Kitsu is going to get executed. I am doing so because I believe that actions which attempt to undermine or cast shade on the towncore are scummy. I will not see a game that we had in the bag disintegrate because of town infighting and paranoia.

2a) See above for the harms of this song-and-dance about town Kitsu.

2b) Feel free to suspect Kitsu once we've cleared out the POE. Nobody is stopping you and I'm openly admitting to you that my protection of the towncore ends when the POE has been cleared. So the only thing wolf Alison gains from protecting wolf Kitsu here is to... ensure that Kitsu doesn't come under suspicion until [Epi/Alison/TSP/Colin] has been killed? I don't think it's ever correct to execute Kitsu before those 4 players, from the point of view of the town in that scenario. So what exactly am I gaining here as scum?

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:07 am I find Alison's hard dedication to a POE with her in it to be a possible ploy for cred. I found some of her recent posts too rigid at best, revealingly adverby at times, and suspicious at worst.

[VOTE: alison] aubergine

Please never try to "adverb read" me again. That is a horrible way of playing.

Playing rigidly is correct if you suspect the mafia is POE clamped. Do you have a reason to believe they aren't?

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:31 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:56 am Colin holstering still strikes me as a positive indicator of caution. One needn't toy with WIFOM there, particularly on Night 2 -- it makes some sense that a guy is afraid of having his block swerved into a cop's ass.

This logic is faulty. If Colin is mafia here, he obviously is lying about holstering because he doesn't have a roleblock at all. (If he was a mafia roleblocker, he'd have blocked Wisp or Spacedaisy, and they would have gotten no result.)

If Colin is town -> he holsters because he doesn't want to accidentally block the cop -> he claims to holster.

If Colin is mafia -> he doesn't have a real roleblock -> he claims to holster.

So we've established that Colin would claim to holster either way, and so his claim to holster is not an indication of his alignment. An actual good way to test his claim is as follows: ask Hally to use the "vote steal" ability she has to steal his vote from him, and then ask Colin to block her. Hally has claimed that she doesn't care about using that ability. We've also established that if Colin was a mafia roleblocker, he'd probably have blocked Wisp or SD. So, if Colin blocks Hally, then he clears himself as town. If he is mafia, he can't block Hally and will get his vote stolen, outing himself as wolf. If mafia Colin kills Hally in order to avoid outing himself as wolf, then Wisp and SD get to survive another night and give another investigation result, while Colin has still done nothing to clear himself and is still under suspicion.

What do you think of that plan?

Hm, no, the redirector can target Colin and make him block other people. So that plan doesn't work. Cancel that. My previous point about Colin's holstering being NAI still stands.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:56 am Colin holstering still strikes me as a positive indicator of caution. One needn't toy with WIFOM there, particularly on Night 2 -- it makes some sense that a guy is afraid of having his block swerved into a cop's ass.

This logic is faulty. If Colin is mafia here, he obviously is lying about holstering because he doesn't have a roleblock at all. (If he was a mafia roleblocker, he'd have blocked Wisp or Spacedaisy, and they would have gotten no result.)

If Colin is town -> he holsters because he doesn't want to accidentally block the cop -> he claims to holster.

If Colin is mafia -> he doesn't have a real roleblock -> he claims to holster.

So we've established that Colin would claim to holster either way, and so his claim to holster is not an indication of his alignment. An actual good way to test his claim is as follows: ask Hally to use the "vote steal" ability she has to steal his vote from him, and then ask Colin to block her. Hally has claimed that she doesn't care about using that ability. We've also established that if Colin was a mafia roleblocker, he'd probably have blocked Wisp or SD. So, if Colin blocks Hally, then he clears himself as town. If he is mafia, he can't block Hally and will get his vote stolen, outing himself as wolf. If mafia Colin kills Hally in order to avoid outing himself as wolf, then Wisp and SD get to survive another night and give another investigation result, while Colin has still done nothing to clear himself and is still under suspicion.

What do you think of that plan?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:48 am The TSP commentary on Pawn / sprityo made no sense to me. I don't understand why TSP thinks I'm mafia or more specifically why I'm mafia with JJJ.

I still think Alison is full of shit. A "hard miller" trying to get the cops to check the same person is asinine.

I don't get why Colin isn't using his ability. You can stop a kill with a role block.

nutella looks civilian.

sabie isn't annoying.

Hally asked a question that I'll answer later if I have to.

When there exists the presence of a mafia role that can confound investigative results, doubling up on the investigatives in order to be extra sure about the certainty of the results is optimal. I'd rather have 1 check that we can bet the game on (like nutella) than 2 checks, neither of whom we can ascertain the validity of. This is better both in general and in the specific context of trying to narrow down the POE.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:47 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:33 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:56 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:50 am @ColinIsCool could you please describe the progression of your thoughts about KitsuShel since you first arrived?

Very blendy in general. I don’t have a meta read to rely on so I have to judge hunting/contributions/tone and nothing there inspires me to confidence. I gave KitsuShel a clear earlier in the game because of the notion that claiming miller without knowing what it’s called would be the kind of mistake a townie would make, but I think now that that is a bad reason to clear somebody. I struggle to find a reason to townread her.

have you not ever looked at kitsu's posts and go "this is obvious town"?

This is the only time Alison has directly addressed Colin in the last 36 hours or so. I'm not seeing much effort from her to sort this slot beyond "chop it".

I agree.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:38 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:02 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:01 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:58 amwhich is why I'm saying it, so it's my legacy when I flip town

Very well. I promise to take that legacy seriously if you should end up chopped/killed and flip town.

Why do you suggest Epignosis would not help chop you?

because he has an established meta of not bussing? you know, the meta that you told me about?

You keep raising this point in defense of yourself. Who are my teammates?

Colin and TSP. Outside chance of JJJ and Sabie.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:31 am Like, what good is the “consensus POE” (if there is one) if I’m in it? Because I know that’s a dead end. I don’t need you to tell me who to look at it if I’m supposed to be one of those people.

Reminder: I am in the consensus POE. I will try to get other people within that POE executed first because I know I am town, but it doesn't stop me from believing in it. I am happy to be sorted within the context of that POE, either by investigation or by execution, because I believe that this gives information to the town that will help it win. Town's biggest advantage this game is the hefty list of confirmed townies that it has. This list will only shorten as the days go by and scum make their kills. Therefore it is important to rapidly sort out the alignments of those not within the confirmed town pool, balancing speed with surety, in order to root out the mafia.

Hi all. I'm free now and will be responding to the accusations laid out against me. I think they are poorly reasoned, and I will show you why.

I see there's a lot of other poorly reasoned posts regarding me but I don't really have the time to deal with them because something pressing has come up so I'll come back in a few hours and respond to them

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:29 am All of Alison’s insistence that we just run through the same couple people and worry about the same couple people for basically the rest of the game feels strongly anti-town to me. You don’t win games by deciding who the scum is D2 and resting on those laurels. And as someone in the POE who is town, and who has some doubts on other people in the POE being scum, I’m telling you it’s a good idea to keep other suspects in mind.

You do that after you eliminate the POE and sort them. If you bring up some tinfoil theory about a deepwolf, exe them, they flip town, then the POE is still uncleared and you've progressed nowhere. If you confirm the POE to be town (which we have room to do), then you can approach hunting for the deepwolf in a more structured manner.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:14 am Anyway, further debate over whose logic is the most valid and sound does not win this game. This dialogue has served it’s purpose for me and I will sleep on it. I hope others will share their perspectives.

Fair enough. I don't think that is getting us anywhere either.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:41 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:39 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:30 am @JaggedJimmyJay why are you doubting the POE at this stage in the game?

I’m not. You and Epignosis are both in it.

why are you pushing a me/epi/kitsu world then?

also I suggest you vote epi if you believe in that world since I'm going to help you execute him but he isn't going to help you execute me, so unless you have compelling reason to believe that I am significantly more likely to be scum than epi, you should be helping me bus my scum buddy.

just reread the page and realized that this could be construed as an instruction to vote epi. no clue if that was what motivated the vote on epi a couple of posts above, but just to be extra safe, I am instructing JaggedJimmyJay to vote for whoever they wish to.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:07 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:07 am [epi/TSP/colin/alison] <- sort these. I don't care if you execute me as long as you follow the POE on everyone else and listen to my fucking legacy after I'm dead.

if the game still hasn't ended, execute JJJ (his arguments these past few pages have been extraordinarily bad) and sabie. If the game still hasn't ended, only then do you start tinfoiling about who in the towncore is a deep wolf.

Your arguments have been terrible.

I don't care what you think. I'm writing how I see the game and I expect that legacy to be followed when I am proven to be a townie one way or another. Your attempts to attack me have been extremely misguided at best, and outright wolf-motivated at worst. Nothing you have said or alleged about me has been correct and I am extremely annoyed that people like Wisp and sabie are actually taking the case on me seriously. I basically disagree with everything they've done over the course of this game so I'm not surprised that they're doing something else I disagree with though.

[epi/TSP/colin/alison] <- sort these. I don't care if you execute me as long as you follow the POE on everyone else and listen to my fucking legacy after I'm dead.

if the game still hasn't ended, execute JJJ (his arguments these past few pages have been extraordinarily bad) and sabie. If the game still hasn't ended, only then do you start tinfoiling about who in the towncore is a deep wolf.

like I said he hasn't done much that game and he comes out of nowhere and tries to lead a crusade against me and convince everyone that "there aren't townie gears spinning in alison's mind". That is certainly bussing.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:01 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:58 amwhich is why I'm saying it, so it's my legacy when I flip town

Very well. I promise to take that legacy seriously if you should end up chopped/killed and flip town.

Why do you suggest Epignosis would not help chop you?

because he has an established meta of not bussing? you know, the meta that you told me about?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:58 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:53 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:48 am Because that’s how the town mind tends to work in a state of uncertainty.

I don't give things that I find obviously scummy a chance, and neither should you. If something could go one way or another, feel free to weigh the possibilities and to think about all sides of the equation, but if something is scum, it's scum, and doubting yourself about it is more likely to lead to you being manipulated by TWTBW arguments than to actual lead you in the direction of the truth. Will you be wrong sometimes anyway? Yes. But the possibility of being wrong shouldn't preclude you from going "you know what, this is scum. Exe it." Sometimes you will not be correct, as I was incorrect on LC day 1. But you should do it anyway because when something is obviously scummy, most of the time it's going to be scum. That is what it means to be scummy.

I don’t believe that you believe it is so obviously scummy that it warrants this perspective. I don’t think Tony’s explanation is even unreasonable.

Tony's explanation was hella unreasonable sorry. It creates ludicrous leaps of logic where those leaps are extremely unjustified. For it to make sense, he would have to come to the conclusion that there exists some kind of serial killer meta that sprityo would follow, that this meta consists of staying in a game despite being inactive instead of subbing out, and that he can assess all of this based on a sample size of one game. That is unreasonable thinking and its conclusions have been proven very wrong.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:56 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:54 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:51 am Hell now Kitsu has NO votes. You’re preaching to the choir.

Please read my posts and see how I am explicitly arguing against people theorizing that Kitsu is scum in the first place. I don't really care if they're voting Kitsu or not. It is incorrect to undermine the integrity of the towncore, and by extension the integrity of the POE, by casting doubt on Kitsu.

This is fear-mongering. Kitsu is fine. The connections folks have drawn only matter if you and/or Epignosis flip mafia, and even then it’s still a dialogue. If you in particular were to flip town after going on about this, it’s something people would have to consider.

which is why I'm saying it, so it's my legacy when I flip town

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:51 am Hell now Kitsu has NO votes. You’re preaching to the choir.

Please read my posts and see how I am explicitly arguing against people theorizing that Kitsu is scum in the first place. I don't really care if they're voting Kitsu or not. It is incorrect to undermine the integrity of the towncore, and by extension the integrity of the POE, by casting doubt on Kitsu.