The Syndicate

gg, and thanks for the game guys

I suppose I should've kept tin foiling outside my suspect list then.

I just didn't think the eliminations were conceivable & that if they did happen with miseliminations then they would derail the game out of townie hands because of paranoia :/.

Going back to this, (though my post here is kinda oddly worded but its kinda the best way I can put it):

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:16 pm it does matter. are you not paranoid at all that it could be someone else?

Tbqh I don't get the point as to why townies should always have paranoia just because "it could be someone else". It makes little sense to me to always have it. I get why paranoia should be had at times though.

I mean, I once asked during one of the MU Twitch podcasts (in the chat) what was the hardest skill to train as town and they all said it was reassessing (which by extension involves paranoia).

But what the hell is that supposed to do if you actually have it correct?

Fmpov if my theory is correct (which I have high confidence in) then me trying to reassess anyone else as anything else is just bad because it moves away from the correct answer.

Obviously, I don't know if its the correct answer. No town ever does, however what towns can try to do is determine its plausibility (and everything else's plausibility).

And what I've been saying for the past (60?) hours or so is that the last 2 scums are in Sloonei/Tutuu/Nanook, which is now the last scum is in Tutuu/Nanook.

If that does turn out to be correct by the end of this game, regardless of win or lose, I'm going to be quite satisfied with myself. Though I am going to be a bit disappointed that this game also meant being chopped by townies because I'm preety sure that 85% of the pushes or pushing (aside from Sloonei as he was dying on D3) onto me have come from townies.

And if I'm somehow incorrect? Well its a good time to learn what I should be looking for in the future with post-game analysis.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:41 pm Still sounds like you're adding the comparison as additional evidence though for your perspective only.

But atp I'm tired about arguing over it

so believe whatever you want -_-

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:37 pmalso, i see similarities specifically between how shep approached his last day and how you approached this day that make me more confident you’re mafia.

Nothing I can do about that, I guess.

Still sounds like you're adding the comparison as additional evidence though for your perspective only.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:32 pm Did you miss the point/posts I made about making connections from me to Sheppard and how inherently misguided or wrongful that is in my opinion?

Or do you seriously think someone without any sort of actual FM-like (in terms of principles and play) experience before starting a FM career can achieve what Sheppard did in less than 10 games?

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:30 pm if martin is the sheppard of this game, does that make me phighter for randomly reversing my correct reads and hard defending mafia?

Did you miss the point/posts I made about making connections from me to Sheppard and how inherently misguided or wrongful that is in my opinion?

Here's a summary or list of issues w/ Tutuu. I got distracted while doing it, so it took longer than it should've.

Also this isn't really written to be a case, so I'm not expecting it to convince anybody. But maybe it'll give you some ideas of where my head is at.

Some quotes may be trimmed.

Spoiler: show

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:24 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:21 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:20 pm Honestly I am tinfoiling that Tutuu is scum here.
can you talk to me about this? what specific things are making u worry about her?
Her progression on Alison. It just looks funky at times, maybe even fence sitting. Not to mention she was town-reading Alison for large parts of D1 iirc.

But within an hour or two earlier she puts Alison fairly high on her scum-read list.

Also if she's scum I think her stance regarding her reads of "I think everyone else is town" or something like that is mean to make her quite maneuverable without being put in a box for her reads.

I can get the quotes, but it'll take some time.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:26 pm
tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:24 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:19 pm
tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:16 pm Martin pls control + f "alison" in the quick topic and the last 2 pages of this thread, i really dont feel like rewriting stuff ive written, im sorry!

So you're admitting that many of the arguments made for your change of opinion on Alison are from others?

In fact, you even said this in the QT:

I think Alison is town because she always seems to get herself scumread and in the PoE as town except that one time in Radiohead where she tryharded because she got pissed of it happening. If she's Mafia here she's playing poorly and I have trust in her that she would play her hearts out if she was Mafia.

Yes i was assuming carotte will flip scum. Alison looks bad then. She had a lot of w/w equity with carotte

Carotte flipping town made me think - looks like alison isnt in that bad of a position after all, which was the cause of my townread

I made this exact post on this day phase a few hours ago martin
"If she's Mafia here she's playing poorly and I have trust in her that she would play her hearts out if she was Mafia."

This statement seems like it applied regardless of anyone else's alignment in the game imo.

To summarize a bit, I really disliked Tutuu's reads list (Link here) early on and I felt like it would be one thats more likely to come from scum rather than town. This is because if anyone has a question about why X suddenly got moved onto the readslist, all it takes is a "Oh lately what they've been doing is scummy" or "The points that other people made here made sense so I can see them as possibly mafia". And then...

She basically does that, from my point of view. When I asked about her change of reads on Alison, she says to ctrl+f and search for her past posts. The thing is, her posts alone (even in the QT) don't show a crystal-clear progression unless we look at other's posts within the context of time. What I was getting at here is that she was adjusting her reads DUE TO the shift in general perception on Alison, rather than as a result of anything done by Tutuu other than acknowledge that. To make matters worse...

I don't think someone makes this statement and flip-flops in reaction to contextual negative consensus towards the same person that the statement that Tutuu made was referring to. Tutuu here was evaluating Alison as TWTBAW, and yet when other people bring up questions about Alison's alignment in relation to Carotenoid's green flip then Tutuu suddenly has a change of heart on the matter?

Spoiler: show

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:42 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:39 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:36 pm Okay. Help me understand where you are in the game right now. You had suspects earlier, but I got the impression your reads there have drastically changed. How are you seeing the game right now? Do you think the exe against you is opportunistic or led by wrong townies?
I'm feeling a bit more than just GTH that they may all be town....lately I've been thinking the last 2 scums are Sloonei + Tutuu if I can ascertain that SPF + Hally + Thunal + Nutella are 100% town.

I'm preety close to feeling that they all already are town and I've obviously committed to thinking you're 100% town.

I've also been looking into the Thunal33 vs. Alison thing earlier and I wanna say you're both town on the basis that it was an early playstyle difference that ended sour for both, of which may have influenced each other's future perceptions of each other's posts, which is why you guys were both almost at each other's throats.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:38 am
Alison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:41 am The POE is small enough that for Sloonei not to be scum would mean that there are two deepwolves. I think that's really hard for mafia to have in general, and I think if they did have two deepwolves they would have enough clout to convince everyone not to vote LC. Therefore there's only one deepwolf as most. Therefore Sloonei is scum.

If we accept this, I think the people with the highest deepwolf equity are nanook or tutuu. Both had strong D1s and D2s and then are doing less D3 after a scum exe. I don't think nanook has posted at all and tutuu has gone all-in on the "I am a sheep" thing. I still townread them individually and think this behavior is very well within their respective town ranges, but it's where I'd look first for a deepwolf.
Okay, this is (almost, not entirely) exactly my thoughts.

Also that I find

Nutella
SPF
Hally
Thunal
Alison

As more or less indisputably town (Except for maybe a Hally + SPF scum team, but similar to how Alison reasoned above I think they may have been able to help avoid an LC elimination for at least a day by, for example, pushing me harder on D2)

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:38 am I also didn't like the sheepy-attitude of Tutuu as of late. It kinda goes along with the "hey I'm flexible with you" sort of scum strategy in my opinion. Especially her day 1 reads list was all "hey I tr all these people, I find carotenoid scummy, and for my 2 other scum reads I just don't know but someone has to be scum". I mean like, its kinda of prolonging your reads list until you get a sense of where the thread is going and then posture your reads for that. I can understand her reasons for sheeping if she was honestly wrong about Long Con, but I just don't feel its plausible within the current game-state that she's town.

Here's bits of me establishing others as town, in a wide-clearing manner though I never specifically cased someone as town in a specific post. This is important because it meant the last two scum were in Sloonei/Tutuu/Nanook

This is mostly self-explanatory. But basically I wasn't finding anything that Tutuu was doing as towny from my perspective, its like she double-downed on a scum strategy where she's influenced by the town general consensus rather than having to do any (or much) solving on her own. The only way I could perceive it as town is if I was them and was completely stressed by Long Con's mafia flip. However, as established by me above, there are two scums in Tutuu/Sloonei/Nanook and this isn't really doing her any favors from my perspective.

Spoiler: show

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:47 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:30 pm how did tutuu interact with long con?

tutuu's early townread on long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=674861#p674861 is notable - i still do think this is a towny moment for tutuu, but it loses a little bit of the town equity that i originally gave it in light of lc being mafia.

i only find viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675445#p675445 scummy in the sense that tutuu is giving a lot of attention to long con and going out of her way to interact with him - this is otherwise neutral

the hedginess toward long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676009#p676009 raised my eyebrows a little bit - i get why tutuu would be cautious of long con if she was town, but i havent really seen her throw out that amount of self-doubt toward her own townread before, it makes me feel like tutuu was uncomfortable w/her tr on long con

tutuu doubles down on her tr on lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676730#p676730 - my gut reaction is that tutuu would treat her partners with a little more distance and not be so brazen

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677419#p677419 actually bothers me a bit - i dont understand how tutuu went from saying "long con town long con town" a couple of hours before saying that she doesn't mind if we chop long con. why didn't she want to defend a townread that she clearly strongly believed in? it's not like she was shy about sticking up for her read either - she says in viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677812#p677812 that she was fully expecting long con to flip town, too

how did long con interact with tutuu?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675588#p675588 this would be a cocky post for lc to make about his partner so early in the game, lol

long con continues to townread tutuu from that point forward - which is why his choice to throw shade on tutuu on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676190#p676190 is a little bit weird. i got the impression that long con was trying to pocket tutuu by aggressively tr'ing her, and wouldn't throwing that kind of shade on her potentially jeopardize his ability to do that?

conclusion:

i still think that tutuu is more likely town than not - but there are a couple of eyebrow raising moments here. tutuu/lc had a couple of interactions that rub me the wrong way, and i would like to hear other peoples thoughts on this as well
Going from top to bottom, my reactions to it.

-I think its towny regardless, though I suppose you can argue it doesn't have as much town equity given a mafia flip.

-Agreed.

-I come to the conclusion that its a bit weird given that there are no posts mentioning or reacting to Long Con in awhile from Tutuu in connection to that post. Prior to the post, the last Long Con interaction was preety much an entire IRL day. Otherwise I can imagine that this is just Tutuu trying to be a bit silly if I had to assume Tutuu is town here. After all, there was a mention of "Special Agent Jay" by Tutuu on the post prior to it about an hour before it. Of course, this is assuming a town Tutuu.

-I get the gut feeling of scummy AI from this sort of thing rather than "oh this is scummy now because Long Con flipped red". She put a lot of faith into the derp-clear without any sort of clear sense of paranoia or even bringing up other reasons for the town-read. Its scummy confidence either because they're protecting a teammate or they're TMI'ing on a towny or etc.

-Agreed.

-Also agreed.

-Annnnnd agreed.

This section is mostly self-explanatory. Keep in mind SPF asked for other's thoughts here.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:23 pm i actually kind of really want it to be martin because it will mean that the hivemind between me and hally on d2 was not only a mindmeld, but a correct mindmeld

All the more reason for townies not to hold it against themselves for my mischop

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:09 pm why is tutuu more likely mafia than nook iyo? why does she fit better with lc/sloonei?

Sigh. Fine. I guess I'll go make a summary about my problems Tutuu because clearly people aren't going to stop asking me about this.

Keep in mind this is a summary, and its probably not going to be a full-blown analysis about interactions with LC/Sloonei unless I feel like it.

But I really don't see the point in doing so since the next two days after my chop are either Nook->Tutuu or Tutuu->Nook, and will end in their respective days for the case of them being mafia.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:03 pm the last thing I want to do is to make you feel bad for it

Or anyone else here for that matter.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:57 pm hope i’m not wrong about this because i’ll look like even more of an idiot than i already do buuuut im really confident it’s just martin

TO BE FAIR,

I do have Asperger's Syndrome. Which may be making things difficult regardless of each other's efforts (or I guess lack of my effort rn lol).

So mischopping here isn't really your fault, especially since nobody here knows me & that I'm new-ish to FM.

As much as I emotionally resent the idea of being mischopped under the current context, for various reasons, the last thing I want to do is to make you feel bad for it.

(unless you're part of the 0.0001% chance that you're mafia, then yeah I guess I do hate your guts a bit)

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:35 pm i don’t think tutuu or nook are mafia. i really don’t. everyone is town but martin

Well that's juuuuussssttttt wonderful.

Hey do tutuu a favor and not vote her the next day because she got to the conclusion "everyone is town but 3 people have to be mafia so I guess its them" on D1. You know, sort of like you here.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:39 pm People have a tendency to correct others when they believe another person has a wrong answer or idea.

I kinda forgot the name of the G-something effect or whatever its called.

I don't really have the time to speculate and introspect as to when and where I try to correct people.

Anyways I have said I am 100% fine with dying and etc

But I like to correct others (or try to) in some cases.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:31 pm If you’re 100% confident in your towncore it’s fine to not care about yourself being in the Poe or dying

People have a tendency to correct others when they believe another person has a wrong answer or idea.

I kinda forgot the name of the G-something effect or whatever its called.

I don't really have the time to speculate and introspect as to when and where I try to correct people.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:27 pm giving us detailed reads to work with off your flip

My "detailed read" is what I've worked on since early D3. Which is my 3 suspects.

THAT is my legacy read. There is nothing else "to work off my flip".

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:28 pm Hally/SPF/Nutella

And Thunal*

I mean, seriously, the ONLY PROBLEM POSSIBLE IS IF THERES SOMEONE WHO'S SCUM OUTSIDE OF MARTIN/NANOOK/TUTUU

And I've determined that, without a doubt on my part, that the people outside of that group are 100% town.

If I'm wrong on that then I will die and probably lose the game for us.

But I am fairly sure those players are 100% town.

Therefore, I don't really have any obligation to keep evaluation Nanook/Tutuu because they're my "suspects" since we have the chops available to win the game.

I mean seriously? The game is already mechanically solved if I am correct.

The only way you're going to get me to do something about it other than just socialize here is if ANY of you (aside from my suspects) start doubting that Hally/SPF/Nutella are all town.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:21 pm Okay, so even if you are town it's not bad that we eliminate you since we still have room to eliminate your suspects afterwards and we're heading in that direction. It's probably best for you to case your suspects instead of fighting your elim since you're not getting out of it today. But if you're town and you give good legacy reads then you can help us win.

"to case my suspects"

You like others have been wording things as if I've done jack.

All I did was try my best to prove the game is probably solved with my three suspects theory, and not only that, I have repeatedly proven that despite my theory there's 1 free mischop to use of which could be used on me or Alison (who's dead rn) if it'll kill paranoia that I'm wrong on my theory.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:20 pm I'll die on the idea that everyone outside of Martin/Tutuu/Nanook is 100% town

Obviously, I consider myself town but once again I'm arguing with people who quite clearly don't know that.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:14 pm False. If you are town, there is one other person alive here who knows that with 100% certainty. And you should be doing your darndest to figure out who that person is.

Disagree. I'll die on the idea that everyone outside of Martin/Tutuu/Nanook is 100% town, and if I'm wrong on that then this is a good game to learn on that.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:14 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:11 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:05 pm “im being attacked because i just happened to have bad interactions with both flipped scum” ...yes? should we not be suspicious of that lol
I'm just venting in somewhat disappointment in myself as town, because unlike everyone else alive here, only I know my own green alignment with 100% certainty.
i don’t believe you

Well, obviously.

Not many people do right now.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:10 pm for adding post icons

Huh. I swore I answered this before in my ISO, but I can't find it.

Anyways, I believe I responded to sloonei at one point that I was asking out-loud if people would TR for that sort of thing.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:07 pm @MartinGG99 so you think the last scum is tutuu or nook? instead of making appeals it would be more helpful if you would case them and convince us they make more sense as the +1 in a lc/sloonei/+1 team than you

It doesn't really matter in the end tbh.

We have enough eliminations and miseliminations to go through Martin/Nook/Tutuu.

Unless you're still somehow paranoid that, if not me, it still must be someone outside of that grouping?

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:05 pm “im being attacked because i just happened to have bad interactions with both flipped scum” ...yes? should we not be suspicious of that lol

I'm just venting in somewhat disappointment in myself as town, because unlike everyone else alive here, only I know my own green alignment with 100% certainty.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:42 pm It was directed at me

Oh that makes sense, I misunderstood.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:32 pm also, i'm referring to a "couple of posts later" as in the posts in your ISO and not your posts in real-time. it's fine for your read to develop, but i didn't see a clear progression for how you townread sloonei in the beginning and then became more reluctant toward him early on. why did you initially want him to have the gun?

My early progression is kinda hard to read // isn't exactly documented because I was over-thinking things behind the scenes.

I also said before that from where I come from scum usually isn't caught on the first day.

I was also having some slight troubles understanding the issue over Sloonei in very early D1, and so I just thought it was some awkward miscommunication or misunderstanding that I couldn't reliably get AI stuff from.

I.....what? I don't recall ever thinking that I wanted to give Sloonei the gun.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:34 pm In fact I'm almost sure that we're about to do a full 360 degrees on the questions I've been asked by people before and if that's the case I'll just start replying with quotes.

Or that have been already answered.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:33 pm Also, there's this post by me from the past:

In fact I'm almost sure that we're about to do a full 360 degrees on the questions I've been asked by people before and if that's the case I'll just start replying with quotes.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:24 pm but posts like this just make me wanna be more suspicious of you - i really dont like ate or posts that use emotional language like this (although i do the same thing sometimes, lol). could you break down for me why you are confident that tutuu/nanook is the correct POE? are u not concerned at all about a deepwolf?

What else am I going to do here? I'm confident in my PoE and with 3 votes on me its almost already decided that I am yeeted today.

So all I get to do is sit back, eat some imaginary popcorn, and watch people walk all over my face (Well maybe that last bit is probably hyperbole to some but I ran out of words to frame it).

Also, as I've said a few times before, there's a free mischop out of the three suspects theory. I'm quite confident the game was solved (I'm NOT implying that it was solved solely by me), and only thing I have to worry about is paranoia trying to wreck it all.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Also, there's this post by me from the past:

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:38 am
Alison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:41 am The POE is small enough that for Sloonei not to be scum would mean that there are two deepwolves. I think that's really hard for mafia to have in general, and I think if they did have two deepwolves they would have enough clout to convince everyone not to vote LC. Therefore there's only one deepwolf as most. Therefore Sloonei is scum.

If we accept this, I think the people with the highest deepwolf equity are nanook or tutuu. Both had strong D1s and D2s and then are doing less D3 after a scum exe. I don't think nanook has posted at all and tutuu has gone all-in on the "I am a sheep" thing. I still townread them individually and think this behavior is very well within their respective town ranges, but it's where I'd look first for a deepwolf.
Okay, this is (almost, not entirely) exactly my thoughts.

Also that I find

Nutella
SPF
Hally
Thunal
Alison

As more or less indisputably town (Except for maybe a Hally + SPF scum team, but similar to how Alison reasoned above I think they may have been able to help avoid an LC elimination for at least a day by, for example, pushing me harder on D2)

And that Nook is *plausibly* town on the basis of a vote on LC during a time where his vote would've conceivably make a difference.

I also didn't like the sheepy-attitude of Tutuu as of late. It kinda goes along with the "hey I'm flexible with you" sort of scum strategy in my opinion. Especially her day 1 reads list was all "hey I tr all these people, I find carotenoid scummy, and for my 2 other scum reads I just don't know but someone has to be scum". I mean like, its kinda of prolonging your reads list until you get a sense of where the thread is going and then posture your reads for that. I can understand her reasons for sheeping if she was honestly wrong about Long Con, but I just don't feel its plausible within the current game-state that she's town.

Anyways, I do feel like the last 2 scum are probably in Nook/Sloonei/Tutuu, with the most likely I'm feeling is Sloonei/Tutuu (However, I never really looked into Sloonei independently for scum plausibility I will admit).

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:17 pm The bolded also seems like Martin's telling people not to trust Alison's reads (and Alison scumread Sloonei and was reconsidering me at that point).

That was kinda spur-of-the moment tbh, and not the wisest choice of words ever.

I was real-timing there for the most part iirc, AFTER getting flustered by a ridiculous attack on me just because I had the one-and-only orange box out of a sea of yellows (and some green)

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:17 pm It feels like Martin's appealing to authority since he knows Alison is town

That aint feeling lol

I knew because that's how confident I was in her being town.

Feel free to frame that as scummy after my green flip.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:10 pm Not having a good townread on Sloonei yet also not wanting him elimed isn't a great look for Martin. That's exactly what I would expect from a read from Sloonei's teammate, and the TWTBAW argument is an easy one for a teammate to make.

Sigh.

I'm being attacked just because how I interacted with 2 people and that they just happened to be scum -_-

Not like it'll change anything but tbh as a townie I'm not supposed to be aware of how I interact with people will be perceived in the future, and maybe that's why it looks bad all-around.

Thankfully we don't have to do a "martin is scum based on interaction" parade after catching the 3rd scum because the game would've ended by then....after I've flipped green atp probably.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:11 pm it's not because you're new it's just like.... your approach to the current situation somehow. like i said idk how to describe it

That's fine.

I'm not worried tbh, except for possibly future games with me in them.

I just want the record straight that we're not thinking I'm Sheppard here, even if it was sort of a joke.

its fine with me if you think I'm scummy and/or will eliminate me today, but it sort of ticks me off if people think I'm Sheppard.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:49 pm martin = sheppard
nanook = jackofhearts
tutuu = sloonei (haha)

it's the same scenario as the finale. we have a safe poe of 3 but it's just martin and we get it today

Really? You're make a SHEPPARD comparison? I literally talked about this in the QT:

I think Sheppard from the Champ Finals possibly rubbed off on your paranoia too much tbh.

That guy had years (Probably?) of experience in IRL mafia. While I imagine IRL mafia is significantly different than forum, some principles likely stayed the same regardless.

Me? I never really played anything with similar principles of "towniness" or "scumminess" in comparison to Forum Mafia. I used to play a lot of the video game (Starcraft II) version of it, called -Mafia-, but in reality that game is just a bunch of PR madness and almost nothing of it relies on discussion or whatever. There are no reads lists or "towniness" or "scumminess". There's just power role claims, fake claims, and just mechanical play, and the town never really cooperates unless there's a power role (Mayor or Marshall) that reveals. And it lasts about 20-40 minutes at most. Or on the off chance that the town just lol's it and just randomly eliminates a player on Day 1.

In a way, I've had to start 100% brand new to the idea of Forum Mafia except for knowing how phases work and mechanics. Nothing about town play or scum play whatever.

That comparison is inherently wrong aside from the # of games played. That guy probably had experience in IRL mafia that he could transport into FM after he got comfortable being town in his first two games.

Don't get me wrong, what he did was a bit surprising and well-done but to just apply that to me and all other newbies without consideration for prior experience in other formats of Mafia is just wholeheartedly wrong.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:05 pm Hence my confidence in the 3 suspects theory.

Among many other reasons that were aforementioned by me.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:45 pm how many eliminations do we have? can we nuke all of martin/nook/tutuu?

Yes we can.

We have 2 ML's to spare before a must eliminate-correctly gamestate.

Hence my confidence in the 3 suspects theory.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:35 pm Why did you think you would probably be the kill?

That was mentioned in the QT.

Tbh I'm a bit surprised they took Thunal33 anyways, though I did speculate on it earlier and they might be trying to WIFOM me lol.

Any kill outside of Thunal + Nutella gives me information and furthers my town or scum reads so yeah. Though I won't say which kill would concern me most other than myself.

Actually that might be what the NK is for.

/m10 Because I believe if my theory is right then all they can do is either shoot Alison + SPF + Hally

Hall + SPF mindmelded earlier and I believe its most likely not V/W

And if Sloonei is red, then there additional target to possibly shoot is Tutuu or Nook (whoevers green) and if they do that then its just outing imo.

Which just leaves me as a possible NK. And it might be the most effective one to kill a townie while maintaining paranoi

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:18 pm iirc martin also advocated for her own elimination in his scum game? @MartinGG99 can you confirm?

Its funny that I got reffered to as a "her", lol.
(It's not a big deal! Doesn't really matter to me)

I definitely did on my Newbies Paradise (#3 I think?) game on MU, before the mod-bot error. I was trying to force a clear of me because my scum-buddy might be eliminated soon and it was looking like a policy elimination of me in the F3.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:17 pm I know I've been caught into the "I've played so well all my reads are probably right so I'll totally die" mode as town even when it's unrealistic that I'll actually die even if my reads are right.

I never said I was going to 100% be the kill. Just probable.

Anyways I've had my reasons for discussing the NK's. If my theory was in any shape or form wrong (the three suspects) then any sort of NKA would be also wrong...because that theory assumes everyone outside of the three suspects is 100% town.

If my theory did apply, then well we have a free mischop outside of that theory to use to test it if we want as I've said. Presumably that may have meant an Alison mischop on D4 if I was shot. Then presumably everyone here would believe in my theory again because at that hypothetical point both me and Alison would've flipped green.

And if my theory didn't apply (because its wrong), then the NKA has little to no relevance what-so-ever.

I don't believe I have a great way to word it.... but basically I saw very little to no harm in discussing my theory. And if I was dying that night, then it would be best to emphasize that theory as my legacy read because I felt very confident in it.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:02 pm that's a pretty quick vote - why is it tutuu over nook? why that specific poe? how confident do u feel?

Well tbh the only thing separating the two is the vote on Long Con by Nook, which I immediately investigated early D3. I think it was a good-enough town indicator for Nook.

And that Tutuu decided to be sheep-y on D3, and her first reads list on D1 which proclaimed TRing everyone...and preety much her 3 scum were just "idk I tr them but one of them have to be scum" or something like that.

I mentioned these stuffs (and other things) a few times in the past.

And its not necessarily how confident I feel in my reads of them, but how confident I am in my theory or solve of where the last scum were.

My theory is already partially proven by Sloonei's red flip. Now its time to find the last scum in Nook/Tutuu (I think Tutuu).

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:34 pm Can I have the tree house link?

https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/2KApnxpVdQq

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:57 pm -Fear the Sloonei slot is 100% town and that Martin's theory is wrong

ebwop

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:11 pm im surprised people still think i’m clear after how hard i tried to save sloonei and get alison eliminated instead lol

I don't think a scum Hally would do this in a single day phase:

-Strongly suggest Martin is mafia early on
-Fear the Sloonei is 100% town and that Martin's theory is wrong
-Push Alison over her being possible scum

And finally

-Night kill Alison

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:09 pm wait actually maybe martin killed alison to be like “look, now you have to sheep her read.” is that a thing?

We still have got 2 ML's.

I don't mind being one of the eliminations today, especially since Alison's slot is already resolved and if it will assuage any paranoid concerns about me.

Not that I'm advocating that I'm the optimal elimination here, obviously. Only that I'm open to it if enough people disbelieve my theory.

I'm still sticking to my 3 suspects theory, which is now that the last scum is in Tutuu/Nook, and its prob Tutuu imo.

[VOTE: Tutuu] aubergine

In fact I don't really see a reason in not-voting myself, no point in me being the doc save.

[VOTE: Martin] aubergine

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:53 pm ah martin's vote seals it we cant get three more

glgl

I've repeatedly tried to be open about 1 free mischop outside of my three suspects, and no one talked directly to me about it (or I have terrible eyes and missed someone quoting me on it).

Last chance to convince me a vote outside of my three suspects is on D4 if Sloonei does flip green. If he flips red then the last chance will be D5 iirc.

Well it looks like its not going to be anybody else then.

[VOTE: Sloonei] aubergine

Going to ensure Nutella gets the gun/save/whatever.

[VOTE: SPF] aubergine
[VOTE: Tutuu] aubergine
[VOTE: Hally] aubergine
[VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:45 pm If it needs more than 1 chop, provided that chop isn't red, then I can't agree to a compromise.

Cuz with my theory there is an extra miselimination/mischop lying around if I'm 100% correct.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:42 pmthat’s correct

Would resolving that require just 1 chop outside?

This can include myself, if that puts your paranoia to rest.

If it needs more than 1 chop, provided that chop isn't red, then I can't agree to a compromise.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:33 pm if sloonei is town, which he is, it’s either nook/martin or nook/alison

i don’t think its tutuu

So by saying Tutuu + Sloonei are town, you're at 100% odds with my theory of the last 2 scum :/

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:15 pm martin, do you think mafia killing jay n2 was the best kill they could have made?

I think with a Tutuu + Sloonei scum perspective it probably was, they just didn't anticipate for things to come to this. I also talked about this earlier, where I think a few unfortunate/unpredicatble/unavoidable events happened that led to more confident town reads on town players.

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