U-Pick Mafia Vol 1 - Game Over

[Turnip Head]

I don’t understand why #1 has 7 votes. What benefit does that offer?

I got to it by process of elimination. There were things I didn't like about all the other options. However, now I'm considering option 2 since both you and Golden seem to think it's a good option, though I need to think through whether limiting the pool is too likely to give us almost all civs. I acknowledge c-bobs point (I think it was c-bob) about the probability it will include at least one mafia I'm just not sure how confident I am in our ability to find that one. See Ass Class for reasons why I think this way.

But if we team up and play zone defense against whoever the 8 suspects are, we can get some targeted intel. We have enough active players to generate a ton of content through a narrower lense.

I'm not hung up on the fact that this mechanic was apparently a dumpster fire in some other game where it came up... we could have different results here if we play it right.

[Turnip Head]

Whoopsido, zone defense doesn't exist in baseball

We can play some... uh... we can... we can hit the balls

[juliets]

I don’t understand why #1 has 7 votes. What benefit does that offer?

I got to it by process of elimination. There were things I didn't like about all the other options. However, now I'm considering option 2 since both you and Golden seem to think it's a good option, though I need to think through whether limiting the pool is too likely to give us almost all civs. I acknowledge c-bobs point (I think it was c-bob) about the probability it will include at least one mafia I'm just not sure how confident I am in our ability to find that one. See Ass Class for reasons why I think this way.

But if we team up and play zone defense against whoever the 8 suspects are, we can get some targeted intel. We have enough active players to generate a ton of content through a narrower lense.

I'm not hung up on the fact that this mechanic was apparently a dumpster fire in some other game where it came up... we could have different results here if we play it right.

Ok, I see what you're saying. Also, it's not the mechanic that was a dumpster fire in another game. It was our inability to find even one mafia out of 4 the entire game even when the pool was winnowed down through lynches and night kills. That was the last game I played and it just has me spooked. I'll think about changing my vote to 2 though.

[Kylemii]

Hmm. I really don’t recall that happening like that, but I have no way of proving it.

it might not have been exactly like that, I just remember that I was making a post and deciding between eloh and epi and by the time I was done eloh was off the table and you'd made it a tie between ep and dunya. It's possible someone else moved their vote off elohcin at that time

[colonialbob]

As for Night 1, I pretty much only read the argument about the poll, and I have to say, I love Jay/Golden's argument. Looks like civ/civ to me. I am a little less happy about nutella's part in it. She is flip-flopping. Then again nutella is always flip-flopping.

I'm afraid I must strongly object to this characterization.

[speedchuck]

As for Night 1, I pretty much only read the argument about the poll, and I have to say, I love Jay/Golden's argument. Looks like civ/civ to me. I am a little less happy about nutella's part in it. She is flip-flopping. Then again nutella is always flip-flopping.

I'm afraid I must strongly object to this characterization.

What are you so afraid of?

[Golden]

I see that all logic has failed. I throw up my hands.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Caught up on Day 1, but I have no intention of catching up on Night 1 too. My head needs a rest. I cut on playing Dominion this week and am trying to keep my mafia time reasonable so I can still study for my gargantuan public job exam that happens next week without my head exploding in the meantime. I have to learn Law, for fucks sake.

My view on this day 1 lynch is that it was a series of opportunistic votes. The only people with more than 1 vote are Epi, Eloh, dunya, Marmot and Wolbre. This includes one guy who begged to be begged to be lynched, a woman who expressed unhappiness over being in a big game, a chaotic dude voting for himself, a guy who got fire because of some boobquest thing, and dunya. Honestly only dunya is a lynch I'd say takes a bit of effort to make, and I don't exclude the possibility of opportunistic mafia in it either. Point is, this day 1 was pretty crappy from a civ performance standpoint.

That said it's not like I made a lot of effort myself, so I'm not condemning people. Just stating an observation. In the future I'd love to look at Day 1 votes to find baddies.

As for Night 1, I pretty much only read the argument about the poll, and I have to say, I love Jay/Golden's argument. Looks like civ/civ to me. I am a little less happy about nutella's part in it. She is flip-flopping. Then again nutella is always flip-flopping.

What’s crappy about the case for wolbre? You write it off here without saying any reason why — in fact you do that for Eloh as well. Are you telling me that you read all of Day 1 and have good reads on all these people, or somehow no reads at all?

Whether I have reads or not is irrelevant for this point, the point is that people went for the low hanging fruits. Eloh is lynched almost every game she plays. Same for Marmot. I don't remember the Wolbre case. I think it were some early votes based on tinfoiling involving his role? So yeah.

It's basically lynches on the quirky people and people who are not known for being super tryharding townies. Wake me up when you can make a lynch happen on say, Golden.

[speedchuck]

I see that all logic has failed. I throw up my hands.

Shouldn't have eaten them.

Does the fact that there are multiple scumteams change anything in your eyes?

[Scotty]

I'm really antsy about option 6. It just doesn't seem the same as three lynches in a row because with 3 in a row you are more informed with each lynch. Plus Golden's point on how with 3 in a row civs have three separate votes, not one vote as we would have if we did 3 at once. There is more likelihood of town controlling all 3 lynches doing them in a row if it is early enough in the game. With three at once it seems like civs would only control one of the three. What am I missing that makes 6 such a good option?

Sometimes you just need to karma sutra or whatever yo get you there. Lots of breathwork.

I read this one quote that went something like “jump, and the net will appear”. Sometimes you just gotta go to chuckle Cheese and play in the ball pit and fuck what the man(agement) says

[ColinIsCool]

Do other players agree with DDL’s characterization of those he mentioned as “low-hanging fruit”?

[Golden]

I see that all logic has failed. I throw up my hands.

Shouldn't have eaten them.

Does the fact that there are multiple scumteams change anything in your eyes?

No.

The thing is there is just so much imattention at play here. Like DDL saying it’s two free lynches when I’ve demonstrated it’s only one, for example. The numbers here are bad - I’m absolutely certain this option reduces the towns chances of winning at this stage - perhaps even dramatically so. It’s a thoroughly stupid option for town to pick but like I have said, it’s very hard to ever convince people to listen to me, their ‘gut feel’ is better to them than raw facts.

[Epignosis]

Back in my day ballplayers like Ted Williams would take time off from baseball to be fighter pilots in the war! Men these days are so soft.

R.A. Dickey still does cool stuff.

You know, I never got a hit off Dickey.

[speedchuck]

I see that all logic has failed. I throw up my hands.

Shouldn't have eaten them.

Does the fact that there are multiple scumteams change anything in your eyes?

No.

The thing is there is just so much imattention at play here. Like DDL saying it’s two free lynches when I’ve demonstrated it’s only one, for example. The numbers here are bad - I’m absolutely certain this option reduces the towns chances of winning at this stage - perhaps even dramatically so. It’s a thoroughly stupid option for town to pick but like I have said, it’s very hard to ever convince people to listen to me, their ‘gut feel’ is better to them than raw facts.

Nah, it feels like the right choice to me.

Seriously, though, the scumteams should be actually hunting this game, since there are rogues and another team. Why not let everyone have a go at it? We have 30ish players and nobody has died yet.

This dramatic reduction thing is hogwash. It's just an extra phase worth of players lost, worst case. Best case, it puts mafia under as much pressure as us.

[ColinIsCool]

Seriously, though, the scumteams should be actually hunting this game, since there are rogues and another team. Why not let everyone have a go at it? We have 30ish players and nobody has died yet.

This dramatic reduction thing is hogwash. It's just an extra phase worth of players lost, worst case. Best case, it puts mafia under as much pressure as us.

So your preferred scenario is one where mafia members can A. get closer to their win con easier and B. earn town cred by having a better shot at catching an opposing scum? How does that help town? I’m wary about the possibility of a scum catching another one and walking away looking pretty good in players’ eyes, in any lynch. 3 lynches makes that so much easier.

[Golden]

Best case, it puts mafia under as much pressure as us.

No, there's no guarantee of this at all. My expectation is the fat likelier outcome is that it puts a whole lot of civilians under the pressure to defend themselves from 2 or 3 vote totals, a whole lot of unnecessary emotional effort for no good gain.

For the civilian who is lynched after getting the third most votes here, this was an objectively 'shitting in their cornflakes' decision. It's cruel.

[ColinIsCool]

There’s nothing stopping everyone from “having a go at it” with any lynch.

[wolbre04]

The Boobquest feels like one million years ago.

well its because im been working ffs
I'll know tonight if one of you rats has my other tit in your greasy hands

[wolbre04]

ColinIsCool, Jackofhearts2005, Sloonei

What is your rationale for #1?

The only one up there I actually like apart from #6 is #2. I think that one offers a tiny benefit of creating a temporarily manageable POE (and also threatens to narrow thread-wide focus for an entire day, so it's not perfect).

MORE VOTES = MORE ACTION, SONNY!

Grandma hasn't realized that her hudband has been dead for years and shes just been seeing her reflection in his urn.
She also probably hasn't gotten any action for years/decades now so let her have her fun

[juliets]

Do other players agree with DDL’s characterization of those he mentioned as “low-hanging fruit”?

When I look at Eloh, I see someone with 23 wins, 10 of which are mafia. Thats 43% of her wins that are mafia wins. Even Epi, who is widely regarded as the best at playing mafia, is only at 30%. I consider her a dangerous player and she Imo has some iffy posts this game so I do not see her as low hanging fruit. I looked through the 2018 side missions to see if I could find games where she was lynched early and I could only see that she was lynched in Mountain Men where she was bad. Maybe DDL can give us a list of the games where she was lynched early so we can see what he means.

I don't know about Marmot but I would like to know from DDL which games he was lynched early in.

lots of linki

[Sloonei]

Back in my day ballplayers like Ted Williams would take time off from baseball to be fighter pilots in the war! Men these days are so soft.

R.A. Dickey still does cool stuff.

You know, I never got a hit off Dickey.

Charlie you are my grandson’s second favorite player, he’s 8, Benjamin. Can you get Nolan Arenado’s autograph for Ben? You should shave your beard young man.

[Sloonei]

ColinIsCool, Jackofhearts2005, Sloonei

What is your rationale for #1?

The only one up there I actually like apart from #6 is #2. I think that one offers a tiny benefit of creating a temporarily manageable POE (and also threatens to narrow thread-wide focus for an entire day, so it's not perfect).

MORE VOTES = MORE ACTION, SONNY!

Grandma hasn't realized that her hudband has been dead for years and shes just been seeing her reflection in his urn.
She also probably hasn't gotten any action for years/decades now so let her have her fun

Gerald and I were just playing Tony Hawk’s Pro-Skater together on the Playstation we bought for Benjamin. Have some respect!

[Kylemii]

The Boobquest feels like one million years ago.

well its because im been working ffs
I'll know tonight if one of you rats has my other tit in your greasy hands

from your angle is there any reason why someone would hide Steve Tyler's Top Sirloin from you? any benefit?

[Golden]

I wrote the fucking poll

I'm trying this hard to keep people off 6 for a reason. I thought I'd played it smarter than I obviously did. I never expected people to lemming their way on to an option that was so obviously mafia-favouring. But at this point I'm sure that's what has happened.

I didn't want to say this outright but at this point if I get nightkilled so be it. It's a cool role, but it's a waste of time if ends the civs game.

[mention]Elohcin[/mention] [mention]sprityo[/mention] [mention]Lunalee[/mention] [mention]wolbre04[/mention] [mention]Spacedaisy[/mention] [mention]Scotty[/mention] [mention]novaselinenever[/mention] [mention]speedchuck[/mention] [mention]sig[/mention] [mention]zephyrus[/mention] [mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] [mention]Marmot[/mention] [mention]Long Con[/mention]

[Kylemii]

oh shit

[juliets]

oh. wow.

[ColinIsCool]

Why would you include that as an option if you understood it to be so dangerous?

[Golden]

Why would you include that as an option if you understood it to be so dangerous?

I don't intend to share the ins and outs of the way my role works. It's not in the towns best interests or my own.

[Kylemii]

huh.

[ColinIsCool]

Well, I can see where you’re coming from Golden, but I don’t think you’re going to persuade anybody by revealing that if you haven’t already...

[Golden]

Well, I can see where you’re coming from Golden, but I don’t think you’re going to persuade anybody by revealing that if you haven’t already...

If I've persuaded no-one with that then they deserve whatever is coming to them; and your probably right, that's the kind of gratitude you get for outing yourself

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I see that all logic has failed. I throw up my hands.

Shouldn't have eaten them.

Does the fact that there are multiple scumteams change anything in your eyes?

No.

The thing is there is just so much imattention at play here. Like DDL saying it’s two free lynches when I’ve demonstrated it’s only one, for example. The numbers here are bad - I’m absolutely certain this option reduces the towns chances of winning at this stage - perhaps even dramatically so. It’s a thoroughly stupid option for town to pick but like I have said, it’s very hard to ever convince people to listen to me, their ‘gut feel’ is better to them than raw facts.

I appreciate your frustration here, but what are the raw facts that render this a poor choice in a non-LyLo scenario?

It has become a question of value for added time and flips versus transferring mafia control over the body count from night kills to a public domain.

I can see arguments both ways, but not some manner of mathematical certainty. If that exists already or can be demonstrated, I am listening.

[nutella]

While I acknowledge that my initial expression of certainty lacked nuance and has been tempered, I still like #6. I won’t object if it wins. If not, only #2 seems to serve a purpose without actively favoring the mafia teams.

I’ll vote #2 for now to bring us closer to an agreeable duality. #1 strikes me as pointless at best.

I agree with this and I've warmed up to #2 a little bit since yesterday. I'm still kind of wary of it going wrong but it's more interesting than #1. Changing vote to #2.

[nutella]

I am concerned that nutella’s flip-flopping is gratuitous.

[nutella]

This is a hard poll ok I'm just trying to keep up with all the pros and cons of each

[Golden]

I see that all logic has failed. I throw up my hands.

Shouldn't have eaten them.

Does the fact that there are multiple scumteams change anything in your eyes?

No.

The thing is there is just so much imattention at play here. Like DDL saying it’s two free lynches when I’ve demonstrated it’s only one, for example. The numbers here are bad - I’m absolutely certain this option reduces the towns chances of winning at this stage - perhaps even dramatically so. It’s a thoroughly stupid option for town to pick but like I have said, it’s very hard to ever convince people to listen to me, their ‘gut feel’ is better to them than raw facts.

I appreciate your frustration here, but what are the raw facts that render this a poor choice in a non-LyLo scenario?

It has become a question of value for added time and flips versus transferring mafia control over the body count from night kills to a public domain.

I can see arguments both ways, but not some manner of mathematical certainty. If that exists already or can be demonstrated, I am listening.

All of the factors involved could be quantified as town or mafia leaning.

As noted by others, not only are the numbers in favour of stepping through one by one, there is the additional matter of:

1) Having to split town voting thin across the wagons
2) Not being informed by each flip before making the next choice
3) The fact you are replacing a more informed vote later with a less informed vote now

I mean, put it this way... if our first choice is bad, we would ordinarily get to make the next two choices based on their flip. This way we probably just follow it up with two pointless civ deaths that wouldn't have otherwise happened.

I could write a lecture on this dismissing every point in favour with a counterpoint but I'd rather people just listened to my plea above frankly.

[Turnip Head]

mmmmm twisty nipsy

where do we go from here

[Turnip Head]

my avatar is so shit right now

[juliets]

I can't argue with the man who designed the poll that option 1 is better than option 2 so I'm changing my vote to option 2.

[Golden]

I can't argue with the man who designed the poll that option 1 is better than option 2 so I'm changing my vote to option 2.

I wouldn't argue against option 1 either. 1 and 2 are both fine.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Golden, do you disagree that the mafia would have more direct control over who they night kill between three lynches than they would in a manipulative effort during three simultaneous lynches?

That is the remaining question for me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think point 1) has been overstated in a 30 player game.

Point 2) is the weakness of #6

Point 3) is technically valid but does not respect that a lynch is still gained overall.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Option 2 is terrible. Sure it makes easier for us to focus, but easy =/= efficient. What is efficient is that we don't have to wait till Day 3 to lynch whoever we want to lynch during Day 2.

[wolbre04]

I wrote the fucking poll

I'm trying this hard to keep people off 6 for a reason. I thought I'd played it smarter than I obviously did. I never expected people to lemming their way on to an option that was so obviously mafia-favouring. But at this point I'm sure that's what has happened.

I didn't want to say this outright but at this point if I get nightkilled so be it. It's a cool role, but it's a waste of time if ends the civs game.

@Elohcin @sprityo @Lunalee @wolbre04 @Spacedaisy @Scotty @novaselinenever @speedchuck @sig @zephyrus @Dragon D. Luffy @Marmot @Long Con

okay i wont vote for 6 then

[Sloonei]

I had my son Richard take a loon at the poll. He said that option 2 is “terrible.” Because “limiting discussion to such a narrow scope is prone to stagnate the progression of reads at this early stage of the game. While certain reads may be magnified to an extent, the number of players and ideas which may be stuck on the back burner is immeasurable, and it may prove a challenge to resurrect and ignite those talks later on. It happened in another game recently and the day was dead quiet and uninspiring.”
Those are my son Richard’s words, we are so proud of him and his son, Benjamin ! Thank you

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I still don’t think the thing is obviously mafia favoring. If I am mafia I hate it.

It can be a nuanced argument, and I was wrong initially to portray it obvious.

It’s still wrong to portray it as obvious in the opposite direction.

[Epignosis]

Back in my day ballplayers like Ted Williams would take time off from baseball to be fighter pilots in the war! Men these days are so soft.

R.A. Dickey still does cool stuff.

You know, I never got a hit off Dickey.

Charlie you are my grandson’s second favorite player, he’s 8, Benjamin. Can you get Nolan Arenado’s autograph for Ben? You should shave your beard young man.

Nolan's lights out right now, ma'am. Tell your grandson I'll look into that. As for my beard, have you seen my chin?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also the fact this is a 31 player game provides another argument in favor of #6: expect more night kills than usual. Especially considering it's also a bastard game. A huge game like this tends to mean less power to the lynches and more power to night abilities.

Well, I like the idea of bring power back to lynches.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

What Sloonei said.

If option 6 is gonna die I'll change to option 1. Those are the only ones I consider to be pro-civ.

[Sloonei]

Richard and I both agree that option 6 is better than option 2.