Easter Mafia [GAME OVER]

[Quin]

nutella, you've talked about how confident you are that it's me and yet you're ISOing Scotty instead of me. You haven't ISO'd me yet. Why?

[nutella]

Finished Scotty's iso and didn't find anything additional to point out other than what dizzy and I have already talked about. it's enough to make him my backup but for now I am still thinking it is most likely just quin.

yeah but where's the iso

what? I finished reading it and pointed out the parts I felt were worth pointing out (some of them were mentioned by dizzy already so I didn't go to the trouble of quoting a lot) when I read someone's iso I don't usually make huge multiquotey posts, I just quote a couple things that stand out and I did so with I think two of Scotty's posts this morning. I'm on my phone at work so don't expect some crazy case lol. Also I will be rereading yours as well later.

[nutella]

nutella, you've talked about how confident you are that it's me and yet you're ISOing Scotty instead of me. You haven't ISO'd me yet. Why?

I will. I wanted to see if Scotty was another potential candidate but I promise I will look back at yours to get the full picture.

[Quin]

Mmm ok so lap and marmot claimed, this changes my poe. [VOTE: Dyslexicon] aubergine for now, might switch to Colin

Post marmot/colin counter claims. You bad, gurl.

[Quin]

Finished Scotty's iso and didn't find anything additional to point out other than what dizzy and I have already talked about. it's enough to make him my backup but for now I am still thinking it is most likely just quin.

yeah but where's the iso

what? I finished reading it and pointed out the parts I felt were worth pointing out (some of them were mentioned by dizzy already so I didn't go to the trouble of quoting a lot) when I read someone's iso I don't usually make huge multiquotey posts, I just quote a couple things that stand out and I did so with I think two of Scotty's posts this morning. I'm on my phone at work so don't expect some crazy case lol. Also I will be rereading yours as well later.

As your biggest suspect and main vote-getter I should have been your first choice. I don't believe you intended to do it from the beginning.

Well, you'll be my first ISO

[nutella]

Mmm ok so lap and marmot claimed, this changes my poe. [VOTE: Dyslexicon] aubergine for now, might switch to Colin

Post marmot/colin counter claims. You bad, gurl.

Nope that was before Colin actually claimed and actually before most of his weird reactions to marmot's claim. Once I was caught up on his weird shit I was all over him. Read on dude.

[Quin]

Mmm ok so lap and marmot claimed, this changes my poe. [VOTE: Dyslexicon] aubergine for now, might switch to Colin

Post marmot/colin counter claims. You bad, gurl.

Nope that was before Colin actually claimed and actually before most of his weird reactions to marmot's claim. Once I was caught up on his weird shit I was all over him. Read on dude.

I did. Colin's post reads as an obvious counter-claim.

[nutella]

Finished Scotty's iso and didn't find anything additional to point out other than what dizzy and I have already talked about. it's enough to make him my backup but for now I am still thinking it is most likely just quin.

yeah but where's the iso

what? I finished reading it and pointed out the parts I felt were worth pointing out (some of them were mentioned by dizzy already so I didn't go to the trouble of quoting a lot) when I read someone's iso I don't usually make huge multiquotey posts, I just quote a couple things that stand out and I did so with I think two of Scotty's posts this morning. I'm on my phone at work so don't expect some crazy case lol. Also I will be rereading yours as well later.

As your biggest suspect and main vote-getter I should have been your first choice. I don't believe you intended to do it from the beginning.

Well, you'll be my first ISO

No, I was so confident it was you that my idea was to check out Scotty and see if there was any chance I could see it as anyone else but you, rather than PoEing it entirely.

[Quin]

nutella: i was all over him

also nutella:

Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.

Yeah at least we have this.

Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.

But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine

Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive

[nutella]

Mmm ok so lap and marmot claimed, this changes my poe. [VOTE: Dyslexicon] aubergine for now, might switch to Colin

Post marmot/colin counter claims. You bad, gurl.

Nope that was before Colin actually claimed and actually before most of his weird reactions to marmot's claim. Once I was caught up on his weird shit I was all over him. Read on dude.

I did. Colin's post reads as an obvious counter-claim.

Not right away it didn't. You'll see that he actively denied claiming and I argued with him for a while trying to figure out wtf he was doing.

[nutella]

nutella: i was all over him

also nutella:

Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.

Yeah at least we have this.

Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.

But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine

Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive

Yes I was back and forth a bunch because it was stressful af to choose between the two for everyone except you apparently. But during the period to which I am referring, I was very much on Colin's case to get him to either claim or believe marmot.

[nutella]

You are just cherrypicking quotes from various times to try to prove a point but you are not seeing the whole process I went through over the course of day 4. And I ended up on Colin anyway because of some very good points Jay drew my attention to.

[Quin]

You are just cherrypicking quotes

Yes, that's exactly what I'm doing.

[Quin]

nutella: i was all over him

also nutella:

Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.

Yeah at least we have this.

Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.

But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine

Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive

Yes I was back and forth a bunch because it was stressful af to choose between the two for everyone except you apparently. But during the period to which I am referring, I was very much on Colin's case to get him to either claim or believe marmot.

We were talking about votes when you said you were all over him. That implies suspicion. Now you're saying you were all over him to get him to counter-claim or not. Which is it?

[nutella]

Honestly I cannot imagine that if you were civ you would be so confident about Colin being bad and marmot being good. That's my biggest hangup with you. The rest of us were flailing around considering every angle and even if you had already civ read marmot you should have been reevaluating constantly during day 4 . I just can't see your reactions there as genuine compared to what Jay, Dizzy and I experienced.

[Quin]

Honestly I cannot imagine that if you were civ you would be so confident about Colin being bad and marmot being good. That's my biggest hangup with you. The rest of us were flailing around considering every angle and even if you had already civ read marmot you should have been reevaluating constantly during day 4 . I just can't see your reactions there as genuine compared to what Jay, Dizzy and I experienced.

It's very simple.

Marmot = good
Colin = x

Both claim the same role, of which there is only one. x = bad. There was no need for panic.

Hope this helps.

[nutella]

nutella: i was all over him

also nutella:

Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.

Yeah at least we have this.

Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.

But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine

Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive

Yes I was back and forth a bunch because it was stressful af to choose between the two for everyone except you apparently. But during the period to which I am referring, I was very much on Colin's case to get him to either claim or believe marmot.

We were talking about votes when you said you were all over him. That implies suspicion. Now you're saying you were all over him to get him to counter-claim or not. Which is it?

Yes both. I called out his "hot bullshit" reaction to marmot's claim, meaning I found it suspicious. He said he wasn't counterclaiming for a while so I gave him an ultimatum basically.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Honestly I cannot imagine that if you were civ you would be so confident about Colin being bad and marmot being good. That's my biggest hangup with you. The rest of us were flailing around considering every angle and even if you had already civ read marmot you should have been reevaluating constantly during day 4 . I just can't see your reactions there as genuine compared to what Jay, Dizzy and I experienced.

It's very simple.

Marmot = good
Colin = x

Both claim the same role, of which there is only one. x = bad. There was no need for panic.

Hope this helps.

I entered with this perspective:

Marmot = bad
Colin = x

Why did I find the decision so difficult?

[Quin]

nutella: i was all over him

also nutella:

Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.

Yeah at least we have this.

Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.

But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine

Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive

Yes I was back and forth a bunch because it was stressful af to choose between the two for everyone except you apparently. But during the period to which I am referring, I was very much on Colin's case to get him to either claim or believe marmot.

We were talking about votes when you said you were all over him. That implies suspicion. Now you're saying you were all over him to get him to counter-claim or not. Which is it?

Yes both. I called out his "hot bullshit" reaction to marmot's claim, meaning I found it suspicious. He said he wasn't counterclaiming for a while so I gave him an ultimatum basically.

The ultimatum obviously leading to the claim, which then caused you to vote for Marmot over Colin. Can't say that was your best decision.

Then,

I’m not frustrated. I’m confident that I’ve got your number here.

I've an exercise for you.

~ If Marmot is a lying mafioso, who is his teammate?

~ If Marmot is being truthful, who are the two mafia?

I am not a “cart-before-horse” style player so I don’t hunt for teammates until I have one confirmed. And I don’t have time right now for a complete ISO but I did see interactions between he and Dizzy that felt strange on his end. I would have to do an analysis on Dizzy’s posts to guarantee that.

I don’t think Marmot is being truthful, but my bad feeling about lap persists (especially because the night and day difference I saw was actually a game where she was civ.)

If you're Keith Shover, you had one confirmed.

Wow, well fuck me. Fuck all this. That is good.

Mmm yeah fuck I may need to switch back to Colin hmm

It took four more posts over a 4 minute window for you to put that into action.

[VOTE: Colin
] aubergine
Fuck it

Yeap k [VOTE: colin] aubergine

Between 9:50 (post 1) and 9:54 (post b) colin received one more vote from dizzy and 3J was treading the bad-colin path. Your vote looks bandwagony.

[Quin]

Honestly I cannot imagine that if you were civ you would be so confident about Colin being bad and marmot being good. That's my biggest hangup with you. The rest of us were flailing around considering every angle and even if you had already civ read marmot you should have been reevaluating constantly during day 4 . I just can't see your reactions there as genuine compared to what Jay, Dizzy and I experienced.

It's very simple.

Marmot = good
Colin = x

Both claim the same role, of which there is only one. x = bad. There was no need for panic.

Hope this helps.

I entered with this perspective:

Marmot = bad
Colin = x

Why did I find the decision so difficult?

Probably because you're bad at algebra.

[ColinIsCool]

I lke how much everybody is talking about me. Makes me feel important.

[nutella]

Quin I was posting while catching up and making the decision over the course of reading a few strong points against Colin.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?

nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?

[Quin]

I gotta say tho, I like dys’s recent pew-pewing into me. I’m more surprised that no one has done this sooner. I think it reads as actually hunting.

Nutella, meanwhile, looks like she’s piggybacking and nodding her head with a “yea guys!” Thrown in

Batter up!

I was so convinced it was Marmot. >.<

I see a twinge of possibility that Colin was playing up the "I'm not Keith", but it still looks bad.

Mindmelding me hon.

It is possible in the metaphysical sense and not much else.

I don't quite understand what you mean by this.

Let's pretend the universe is probabilistic, and that it has been duplicated 1,000,000 times. In how many of those duplicated universes is Marmot Keith Shover?

Much, MUCH fewer than the ones where he’s fake claiming. I would give myself a 95% chance of being right about this and that may be even too generous to Marmot.

In 5% of universes, Colin allows Marmot to be Keith Shover.

Yeah I was pretty damn perplexed when he said that.

I was all in on marmot being good from day 3. In a situation where either he or another is confirmed bad, there's no doubt about it. Calling it TMI is stupid. The read existed before Colin was in trouble.

That's the problem. To sustain that kind of confidence under those circumstances is extremely difficult for any civilian. I had Marmot as my top mafia read entering that situation, but I didn't rest my case immediately and say "it's Colin", because I didn't know that. I realize the read existed before the claim drama. I don't understand why the claim drama didn't make you re-think the matter at all.

If you know Marmot is a civilian, then that applies at any moment when you give Marmot civilian credit.

Yeah, this. The rest of us were running around in a panic doing our best to ascertain who was legit and who was lying. Your calm certainty about the whole thing is really not a good look.

nutella good
Scotty good
MP good
Dizzy good
Kyle good
lapluie good

Colin tinfoil

Marmot no
Epignosis no
Elohcin no

Solid. Much agreement here.

That's what I'm starting to turn around on Marmot again and think that he's genuine. He's being forthcoming with everything, and there's no reason for him as a mafia member to put so much attention himself with a late sloppy Choutas bus vote.

I'll try to illustrate what bothers me about Jay here in a bit. Most of his recent scum hunting is characterized by low-hanging fruit, WIFOM, etc. that town Jay would only give little consideration, or at least would realize the other point of view. The difference between town Jay and scum Jay is the agenda. Town Jay, despite speaking with confidence, is never really sure of anything; he's always trying to pressure and investigate from as many angles as possible. Scum Jay is trying to appear that way but really he's pushing an agenda. I really hate that Jay's actively engaging in WIFOM and pushing Marmot as a candidate based on such weak shit.

I'll ISO him when I'm less distracted to try to highlight what I mean.

well put.

I'm not buying any of this "homework" JJJ is doing. It's phony. Giving reasons why everyone could be bad isn't actually doing anything. It just looks like it is. My vote stays.

Why did you vote the way you did, JJJ?

I'm inclined to agree with this. It feels very forced, like it's a sad attempt to approach what an organic town Jay would do.

Then we're all on the same page.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

He self-voted because being lynched was irrelevant -- he's Caerbannog.

This did cross my mind at the time.

The timeline got mixed up somewhere.

I don’t feel good about Eloh either but I’m of two minds on that post. Could be scum self-preservation, or Marmot’s more charitable explanation could hold up.

I'm considering lynching Quin. His only sign of life today was to freak the hell out about some Dizzy interpretation of his own posts. I don't see evidence that this guy gives a crap about the hunt.

I don’t feel great about him either, or that he’s staying away from two wagons that both seem reasonable.

And Marmot too — what’s up with MP in your eyes?

I have you and Marmot leaning scum, and I’m not convinced re: Eloh, so I don’t think those are just “easy” reads.

As far as “flexible” goes, I’m certainly open to hearing arguments for anybody but a lot of these players I’ve only seen one way and I’m doing a lot of taking peoples’ word on meta analysis. JJJ, Epi, Kyle, I don’t know what they look like as scum so I don’t know what to watch out for. I disengaged from Greece after dying so anything that happened after the early stages was beyond me.

All these posts were right after each other.
So you had one eye on Elo, one on Quin, Marmot and (I think) MP, and you ultimately add to the wolbre train. That’s a lot of eyes that aren’t really looking anywhere in particular.

You’re a spider. I have my one cyclops eye on you

He had talked about wolbre quite a bit earlier on in the day, so I don't find it strange at all.

But even towards the end there, he was leaving himself open to voting all other major wagons. Makes me feel like his hands were in multiple honey jars and the honey jars were spilling over, if Colin is bad then I can see one of his bad reads here being a teammate. Like, if the Elo one had taken off for real (and she were bad) he could go “oh...well I said I thought wolbre or Quin or marmot was bad so ima vote there”

Also this tbh. While reading Scotty's day 2 posts it looks like he is himself guilty of what he is accusing Colin of. He suspects colin, Eloh, wolbre... and keeps emphasizing his suspicion of Colin throughout days 2 and 3 while actually fully supporting the wolbre and Eloh lynches. Kinda looks to me like he's keeping caerbannog in his back pocket as an eventual lynch candidate that should give him credit later, while still fully taking advantage of as many town lynches as possible to put it off.

This one is just writing the same thing in more words.

[nutella]

Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?

nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?

I feel pretty solid town on dizzy. From pure poe they are a distant third behind quin and Scotty.

[Quin]

Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?

nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?

In a two person PoE I'd lynch nutella then Dizzy. I call Scotty good prior to further investigation.

[nutella]

Yes I agree with people a lot lmao that's how I play. In the last one though I do actually think I am saying something a bit different or at least more specific about Scotty. I am capable of having original thoughts sometimes

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?

nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?

In a two person PoE I'd lynch nutella then Dizzy. I call Scotty good prior to further investigation.

Why do you no longer want to murder me?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

When I am back at a computer I may investigate meta information to discern whether patterns exist for nutella being an Agreeable Alice with respect to alignment.

[Quin]

Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?

nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?

In a two person PoE I'd lynch nutella then Dizzy. I call Scotty good prior to further investigation.

Why do you no longer want to murder me?

I was just fucking with you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?

nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?

In a two person PoE I'd lynch nutella then Dizzy. I call Scotty good prior to further investigation.

Why do you no longer want to murder me?

I was just fucking with you.

I can’t expand for a bit. For now I give you:

DUBIOUS

[Quin]

Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?

nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?

In a two person PoE I'd lynch nutella then Dizzy. I call Scotty good prior to further investigation.

Why do you no longer want to murder me?

I was just fucking with you.

I can’t expand for a bit. For now I give you:

DUBIOUS

It's not like I don't. But the last clash was simply evocative. I need to read you and Epi as well.

I wouldn't have tried to bounce meta ideas off of you like right after that if it were a real confrontation, now would I?

ANXIETY

[Quin]

Poe:

if they are bad I will personally eat G-Man's dictionary:
Scotty
Epi Blackballs

Would need to seriously re-evaluate in order to not see as town:
Quin
Leaning town:
Colin
Who the hell knows:
Marmot
Tinfoil Zone:
JaggedJimmyJay
Dyslexicon
Leaning bad:
Lapluie

I might read Colin's iso next to see if I can see what others see. My gut says town on him but I don't have a lot to back that up. Dys probably next after that. I could also be wrong about lap, which scares me because that leaves a lot of possibilities.

What a fucking end of day to miss! Good job boyos and thank god you were all right. JJJ coming in hot with that catch at the end.

There is no way in hell that JJJ is bad after that EoD. Surprisingly, Dys looked the worst after I left and in hindsight, next to Quin. I’ll take a detailed look at Colin interactions tomorrow. Everything he’s said in the past day is complete WIFOM and shouldn’t be taken at face value, or even below the belt value, but before he was the main lynch candidate should be entirely enlightening.

So I guess what I’m saying is: let’s lynch marmot tomorrow k

I didn't totally follow all the crazy vote changing at EOD so perhaps you are right about Jay. If it's between dizzy and quin though man idfk

What changed that dropped me to the very bottom of your rainbow?

[nutella]

Dude everything changed.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]nutella[/mention]
[mention]Scotty[/mention]
[mention]Quin[/mention]

One of you is a mafioso. I need to narrow it down to two of you.

Please tell me why I should believe you are a civilian.

[nutella]

@nutella
@Scotty
@Quin

One of you is a mafioso. I need to narrow it down to two of you.

Please tell me why I should believe you are a civilian.

I have followed a combination of my gut and compelling thread evidence for all of my thoughts on other players, and I haven't been afraid to change my opinion a lot in the moment when presented with reason to do so. I have put myself out there and spoken my mind freely which has brought me some criticism but it's how I play and think through the thread to solve the game so I persist. I reacted organically during claim gate and did my best to consider all possibilities. I am genuinely trying still to ensure that I'm not missing anything in finding the last baddie --even though I feel very confident it is quin I have considered angles on Scotty.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have followed a combination of my gut and compelling thread evidence for all of my thoughts on other players, and I haven't been afraid to change my opinion a lot in the moment when presented with reason to do so. I have put myself out there and spoken my mind freely which has brought me some criticism but it's how I play and think through the thread to solve the game so I persist. I reacted organically during claim gate and did my best to consider all possibilities. I am genuinely trying still to ensure that I'm not missing anything in finding the last baddie --even though I feel very confident it is quin I have considered angles on Scotty.

Can you think of a moment in this game when you doubted the accuracy of a case that another player presented to the thread?

[Quin]

@nutella
@Scotty
@Quin

One of you is a mafioso. I need to narrow it down to two of you.

Please tell me why I should believe you are a civilian.

because you wanna win assumedly

why not epi?

[nutella]

I have followed a combination of my gut and compelling thread evidence for all of my thoughts on other players, and I haven't been afraid to change my opinion a lot in the moment when presented with reason to do so. I have put myself out there and spoken my mind freely which has brought me some criticism but it's how I play and think through the thread to solve the game so I persist. I reacted organically during claim gate and did my best to consider all possibilities. I am genuinely trying still to ensure that I'm not missing anything in finding the last baddie --even though I feel very confident it is quin I have considered angles on Scotty.

Can you think of a moment in this game when you doubted the accuracy of a case that another player presented to the thread?

Yes, certainly many if not all of the cases on Colin before claimgate occurred. I townread him pretty much exclusively up until then when some other players scumread him. I'm sure there are more examples, like I think you suspected Epi after I decided he was civ, and I think Scotty has said some things about Dizzy that I disagree with. Also when Quin postedhis strong town read of marmot lol.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

because you wanna win assumedly

why not epi?

Piano surfboard salami sandwich

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yes, certainly many if not all of the cases on Colin before claimgate occurred. I townread him pretty much exclusively up until then when some other players scumread him. I'm sure there are more examples, like I think you suspected Epi after I decided he was civ, and I think Scotty has said some things about Dizzy that I disagree with. Also when Quin postedhis strong town read of marmot lol.

Are these things that you voiced?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Quin[/mention], please review this page of the Charlie ISO and report your feelings. Don't report your findings.

[Quin]

Quin, please review this page of the Charlie ISO and report your feelings. Don't report your findings.

But I haaaaaaaaate feelings

k

[Quin]

I read it. Middle of the page posts read as genuine but the context of them doesn't reflect alignment to me.

[Epignosis]

If we win this game, it's due to an incredibly committed and collaborative team effort by the civilians. Great job civs, let's keep it up!

Sure thing.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I read it. Middle of the page posts read as genuine but the context of them doesn't reflect alignment to me.

He'd be the last name on a full POE pool of all suspects, and he becomes less plausible a mafioso with each passing moment.

[Quin]

I read it. Middle of the page posts read as genuine but the context of them doesn't reflect alignment to me.

He'd be the last name on a full POE pool of all suspects, and he becomes less plausible a mafioso with each passing moment.

I don't get it. I assume the latter bit is your opinion based on the former.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't get it. I assume the latter bit is your opinion based on the former.

I'm not sure how you can read what I presented to you and not get it. I don't want to talk about it further.

[Quin]

I don't get it. I assume the latter bit is your opinion based on the former.

I'm not sure how you can read what I presented to you and not get it. I don't want to talk about it further.

You make it sound like I should understand what you're saying from the page you had me read, but there's nothing about PoE there. So I don't understand.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You make it sound like I should understand what you're saying from the page you had me read, but there's nothing about PoE there. So I don't understand.

Read it again. It's not about POE. If you still don't get it, then whatever. There's a reason I don't want to talk about it.