Inception [END]

Who threatens the subconscious mind?

Poll ended at Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:00 pm

Jackofhearts2005
2
11%
juliets
0
No votes
Lady Lambdadelta
2
11%
Master Radishes
0
No votes
No vote / unvote
0
No votes
No Lynch
0
No votes
Host/non/dead option
15
79%
 
Total votes: 19
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3851

Post by juliets »

Hyena wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:24 am
juliets wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:43 pm Hyena - I don't understand why he was so hell bent on getting a tie. In our games town generally doesn't want a tie. I need to ISO him because I don't have much of a read on him or rather it feels like he was just jumping around a lot like iaafr (maybe not that bad).
I can explain this.

In games town generally doesn't want a tie.
In the general and ideal case, yes, town shouldn't want to tie. They should want to make sure the person who they want lynched gets lynched. They should want control of the votes. What else is true though is that scum shouldn't want to tie either IF ONE OF THE TIED WAGONS is there partner. However, if the wagons are lopsided and heavily leaning towards their partner getting lynched, they are generally going to try to avoid voting anywhere else. Otherwise, they look suspicious, right?

However, if the wagons are tied or close in numbers, they are more likely to jump between wagons and to try to save their partner. Or they may stay put on a wagon and not want to get involved in the chaos. Either way, things are way more interesting when there's heavy competition between two wagons than they are when people are nearly unanimously voting someone. :P
Thanks Hyena, I see your strategy.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3852

Post by juliets »

Creature wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:52 am
juliets wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:31 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:08 pm
juliets wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:43 pm
vanity. wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:24 pm
juliets wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:22 pm
vanity. wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:21 pm

don't really care about wagons atm, sorry

just trying to pressure people i find are wolfy or not towny enough to my liking
Well then, pressure away. What do you want to know?
just let me know why i should've found you as v already and some of your general thoughts on us people in the group

that should be simple enough
I'll give some off the top of my head thoughts about people in the group and then ISO myself, though I think my vote timing is the biggest thing. I do not think everyone who voted Drago was necessarily town. Also I really need to ISO some of the group but like I said, here's my top of head thoughts.

Long Con - voted at the last minute for Drago, had just voted 112 6 minutes before. I need an explanation here as I found that very odd. Other than that he has not impressed me as wolf or town so I will ISO him.

TL - I explained late yesterday why he was null to me when the votes were piling on him. Today I'm reading him as town, he voted essentially when I did.

Elephant - I felt good about my conversation with him in the thread where he was encouraging me to take another look at Tony before dismissing him but I know others had an issue with that. Now that Tony has flipped town I will need to re-evaluate our conversation. I like Elephant, he's one of the only people who's made me feel important, so I'm going to have to really set that aside to re-evaluate.

DFaraday - He's not around. I don't like that at this point of the game. Lean scum, seems like he's done this before as scum.

Benson - lean town on Benson. I like his insights they seem very villagery.

vanity - leaning town

Creature - It's been pointed out he was around at EOD but didn't join in which is not good. I really didn't pay a lot of attention to him yesterday because it seemed like he was just reeling off one liners without any depth. I'll ISO him to be fair. Lean scum.

boo - brand new, need him to post before I can evaluate.

Hyena - I don't understand why he was so hell bent on getting a tie. In our games town generally doesn't want a tie. I need to ISO him because I don't have much of a read on him or rather it feels like he was just jumping around a lot like iaafr (maybe not that bad).

nutella - straight up town.
Long Con can get got

TL is townlean yes

Elephant is most likely just an annoying gimmick we'll have to deal somewhere later in the game

DFaraday should go sure

Benson town

vanity town

Yeah, I figured you didn't pay attention for me, I think you were busy pushing an agenda elsewhere

Spiny Creature on a new review can go

hyena I'll give a pass

nutella town
What agenda do you think I was pushing?
Selecting a few players to focus on and not compromise taking other stances
I wasn't limiting myself to just a few, but when I returned to EOD at 4:00 it's true I didn't try to focus on everyone. Can you explain what "not compromise taking other stances" means?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3853

Post by juliets »

Oops I guess everyone left.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3854

Post by juliets »

nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:27 am Actually except boo, I had bad feelings about spiny on d1 so I'mma vote there for now but looking forward to what he has to contribute.
[VOTE: boo] aubergine
nut will you share the reasons you had bad feelings about spiny on day 1? I just read through her and didn't come away with a particularly bad impression. She had one read on Drago where she found him suspicious though she spent most of her time arguing with Hyena about whether she town read Pawn.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

Spoiler: show
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3855

Post by juliets »

It's time for me to get ready and go to work. I'll be back this afternoon about 2:30 ish.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

Spoiler: show
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3856

Post by nutella »

Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:51 am The analysis that nutella posted along with her vote history had this:
nutella wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pmSo vanity was an earlier Drago vote, briefly left it, then eventually was the one to break the tie with Epi. He's probably just town here.
nutella wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pmBenson, iaafr, and pawn look generally okay but certainly not cleared from this. I'm trying to figure out who looks too clean and it's hard to tell. Maybe vanity.
Why does iaafr ending on "no lynch" look ok to you?
Why does Pawn Lelouch voting Dragomir look ok to you, but Trustworthy Liberal voting him next does not?
Why does Benson sheeping vanity. look ok to you? At the same time, vanity. looks "too clean", how is that?
I struggle to follow your thoughts here, nutella.
Idk, I admit I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about each player and just sort of typed up my first instincts. Your points here are definitely worth considering.

I thought those people looked ok on balance based on timing and how they defended their votes but it's not conclusive by any means.

I think Benson is just very towny overall, but I'm glad you're questioning vanity bc I'm less sure about him.
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Re: I am the Elephant.

#3857

Post by nutella »

Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:50 am To be absolutely clear, I do not scumread strong player bias per se, nor do I believe that only those players who have posted reads lists today have it. I do suspect the attempt to limit the day's activity to pushes on the weaker players only.
The strong player bias certainly exists and is a real trap that town can often fall into that makes it progressively harder to sniff out deepwolves because certain people are just granted townreads based on style as if they're scum they can coast on that. I'm glad you're bringing it up, the sooner we scrutinize our "strong player" townreads the better.
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Re: I am the Elephant.

#3858

Post by Benson »

Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:45 am
vanity. wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:17 pm tlib
elephant
juliets
long con
dfaraday

this is the list of suspects i'm working within today. get crackalackin.
With distance, sometimes issues appear more clearly than when they are close. We are left with eleven players in that part of the subconscious we are tasked to defend. Four of us have reached the wildcards or the finale: Spiny Creature/boo, Hyena, nutella, and vanity. They are all absent on vanity's list. Benson and Creature also do not appear on this list. It appears to me that vanity. has constructed his suspect pool largely along the lines of player ability, exempting the better players from suspicion, and going after what could be considered "low hanging fruit" in this game, with its overall high standard of players. @vanity. , what was your intention behind creating this suspect list? To be quite overt about it, it does look like scum pushing mislynch bait. I am going to examine if other players here identify player quality with player alignment, but for now, I shall [VOTE: vanity.] aubergine.
If you want one more I've also reached the finale ;)
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Re: I am the Elephant.

#3859

Post by Benson »

nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:32 am
Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:50 am To be absolutely clear, I do not scumread strong player bias per se, nor do I believe that only those players who have posted reads lists today have it. I do suspect the attempt to limit the day's activity to pushes on the weaker players only.
The strong player bias certainly exists and is a real trap that town can often fall into that makes it progressively harder to sniff out deepwolves because certain people are just granted townreads based on style as if they're scum they can coast on that. I'm glad you're bringing it up, the sooner we scrutinize our "strong player" townreads the better.
I think it's a fair point from Elephant and I do need to reevaluate some of my biases. I've seen too many wolves coast to the end from a good round 1.
But I'll say this: my town reads tend to be quite fluid and dependent on new information. So right now, the people who heavily pushed Drago look good, but if 112 ends up being a wolf too then all those town reads/leans are immediately reevaluated.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3860

Post by Benson »

[mention]Elephant[/mention] Regarding votes with vanity:
I think it was a combination of circumstance and agreeing with vanity's mindset, while also town reading him. Further, I'm the type of person that enjoys showing chaos near the deadline to potentially snuff out once we have flips. That's why I quickly moved to TSP when it became viable again. That wagon didn't go anywhere so we went back to Drago, which is ultimately where I wanted to end up I was also very comfortable at the type of people supporting the Drago wagon - most of whom I was town reading. (I was never voting 112 just because of our history).
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3861

Post by Benson »

Creature wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:54 am
Benson wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:38 pm I'm not sure what to make of Creature acting so defeated already. I think it's genuine frustration, but I suppose that could still be frustration from being a caught wolf.
Posting a ton isn't acting defeated afai recall
After I voted you, you literally said something along the lines of: "why should I even try if I keep getting lynched". Idk how I'm supposed to read that any other way than you acting defeated for pity points.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3862

Post by Benson »

Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:50 am @Elephant Regarding votes with vanity:
I think it was a combination of circumstance and agreeing with vanity's mindset, while also town reading him. Further, I'm the type of person that enjoys showing chaos near the deadline to potentially snuff out once we have flips. That's why I quickly moved to TSP when it became viable again. That wagon didn't go anywhere so we went back to Drago, which is ultimately where I wanted to end up I was also very comfortable at the type of people supporting the Drago wagon - most of whom I was town reading. (I was never voting 112 just because of our history).
Should read: snuff out *wolves
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3863

Post by nutella »

juliets wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:35 am
nutella wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:51 pm Too quiet here, am I the only one who actually wishes we had everyone :( I miss Mac and iaafr and 112 and all the other active insightful folk
Lol ouch!
Wasn't meant as a stab at this group, I just have severe FOMO and don't like that I've missed everyone else's analysis and reactions to the flips
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3864

Post by nutella »

juliets wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:11 am
nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:27 am Actually except boo, I had bad feelings about spiny on d1 so I'mma vote there for now but looking forward to what he has to contribute.
[VOTE: boo] aubergine
nut will you share the reasons you had bad feelings about spiny on day 1? I just read through her and didn't come away with a particularly bad impression. She had one read on Drago where she found him suspicious though she spent most of her time arguing with Hyena about whether she town read Pawn.
If you search my iso for spiny you'll probably see me mention her a couple times. She behaves kind of oddly in a spat with hyena and ignored half of his points/questions. I think there was something else but idk. Also the fact that I specced only a couple of pages of wc2 and correctly pegged her as wolf so I want to trust my gut even though it's only a sample size of one.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3865

Post by nutella »

However I will say that her Drago interactions look decent.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3866

Post by nutella »

So btw I had a showerthought this morning that I want to share with the class. I know I said I don't much like nk analysis but I think the Texas kill could indicate either Eva w OR an attempt to frame Eva. This is because Tex was very good at catching wolf Eva in WC1 so Eva could be scared of them; Texas even brought this up in this game so if it's a frame it's not even limited to wc1 players or spectators (though statistically some of those are on the wolf team). I'm not sure how this can help us narrow it down but figured it was worth mentioning in case anyone else has thoughts.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3867

Post by Benson »

nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:07 pm So btw I had a showerthought this morning that I want to share with the class. I know I said I don't much like nk analysis but I think the Texas kill could indicate either Eva w OR an attempt to frame Eva. This is because Tex was very good at catching wolf Eva in WC1 so Eva could be scared of them; Texas even brought this up in this game so if it's a frame it's not even limited to wc1 players or spectators (though statistically some of those are on the wolf team). I'm not sure how this can help us narrow it down but figured it was worth mentioning in case anyone else has thoughts.
Interesting. Texas even left their vote on Eva when that wagon died out, so they seemed pretty serious about that read.
I think they may have also thought Texas was the cop since they used the Janitor ability (I'm assuming they have a limited number of those to use). IIRC they had stong town reads on Mac, 112, iaarf, and me. But ofc, it could all be for the WIFOM.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3868

Post by Benson »

I don't like picking on people while they try to get started but Faraday's entrance is so wolfy. I don't like the casual: "this wagon good; that wagon bad" thing, especially when he isn't caught up.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3869

Post by Benson »

Elephant, I trust you're also thinking TLib is mislynch bait here?
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3870

Post by Elephant »

nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:28 am
Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:51 am The analysis that nutella posted along with her vote history had this:
nutella wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pmSo vanity was an earlier Drago vote, briefly left it, then eventually was the one to break the tie with Epi. He's probably just town here.
nutella wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pmBenson, iaafr, and pawn look generally okay but certainly not cleared from this. I'm trying to figure out who looks too clean and it's hard to tell. Maybe vanity.
Why does iaafr ending on "no lynch" look ok to you?
Why does Pawn Lelouch voting Dragomir look ok to you, but Trustworthy Liberal voting him next does not?
Why does Benson sheeping vanity. look ok to you? At the same time, vanity. looks "too clean", how is that?
I struggle to follow your thoughts here, nutella.
Idk, I admit I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about each player and just sort of typed up my first instincts. Your points here are definitely worth considering.

I thought those people looked ok on balance based on timing and how they defended their votes but it's not conclusive by any means.

I think Benson is just very towny overall, but I'm glad you're questioning vanity bc I'm less sure about him.
I feel that I was just very politely brushed off.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3871

Post by nutella »

Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:19 pm I don't like picking on people while they try to get started but Faraday's entrance is so wolfy. I don't like the casual: "this wagon good; that wagon bad" thing, especially when he isn't caught up.
I don't see this at all. He doesn't say anything about wagons, he just says he has reason to townread creature and he like LC's case on TL.
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Re: I am the Elephant.

#3872

Post by Elephant »

Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:33 am
Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:45 am
vanity. wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:17 pm tlib
elephant
juliets
long con
dfaraday

this is the list of suspects i'm working within today. get crackalackin.
With distance, sometimes issues appear more clearly than when they are close. We are left with eleven players in that part of the subconscious we are tasked to defend. Four of us have reached the wildcards or the finale: Spiny Creature/boo, Hyena, nutella, and vanity. They are all absent on vanity's list. Benson and Creature also do not appear on this list. It appears to me that vanity. has constructed his suspect pool largely along the lines of player ability, exempting the better players from suspicion, and going after what could be considered "low hanging fruit" in this game, with its overall high standard of players. vanity. , what was your intention behind creating this suspect list? To be quite overt about it, it does look like scum pushing mislynch bait. I am going to examine if other players here identify player quality with player alignment, but for now, I shall [VOTE: vanity.] aubergine.
If you want one more I've also reached the finale ;)
I assume you played the finale in a previous reason, is that correct?
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3873

Post by nutella »

Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:53 pm
nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:28 am
Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:51 am The analysis that nutella posted along with her vote history had this:
nutella wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pmSo vanity was an earlier Drago vote, briefly left it, then eventually was the one to break the tie with Epi. He's probably just town here.
nutella wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pmBenson, iaafr, and pawn look generally okay but certainly not cleared from this. I'm trying to figure out who looks too clean and it's hard to tell. Maybe vanity.
Why does iaafr ending on "no lynch" look ok to you?
Why does Pawn Lelouch voting Dragomir look ok to you, but Trustworthy Liberal voting him next does not?
Why does Benson sheeping vanity. look ok to you? At the same time, vanity. looks "too clean", how is that?
I struggle to follow your thoughts here, nutella.
Idk, I admit I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about each player and just sort of typed up my first instincts. Your points here are definitely worth considering.

I thought those people looked ok on balance based on timing and how they defended their votes but it's not conclusive by any means.

I think Benson is just very towny overall, but I'm glad you're questioning vanity bc I'm less sure about him.
I feel that I was just very politely brushed off.
Not at all. I'd love to talk more about those people. Just don't have time to deep dive rn.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3874

Post by Elephant »

Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:50 am @Elephant Regarding votes with vanity:
I think it was a combination of circumstance and agreeing with vanity's mindset, while also town reading him. Further, I'm the type of person that enjoys showing chaos near the deadline to potentially snuff out once we have flips. That's why I quickly moved to TSP when it became viable again. That wagon didn't go anywhere so we went back to Drago, which is ultimately where I wanted to end up I was also very comfortable at the type of people supporting the Drago wagon - most of whom I was town reading. (I was never voting 112 just because of our history).
Your explanation provides a reason for switching to Tony after vanity, because her switch made the Tony wagon appear more viable. It probably explains your switch back as well, because vanity. switching her vote back to Dragomir made the Tony wagon less viable. Thank you.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3875

Post by Benson »

nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:55 pm
Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:19 pm I don't like picking on people while they try to get started but Faraday's entrance is so wolfy. I don't like the casual: "this wagon good; that wagon bad" thing, especially when he isn't caught up.
I don't see this at all. He doesn't say anything about wagons, he just says he has reason to townread creature and he like LC's case on TL.
I thought he was implying he didn't like Creature as a wagon but supported a TLib wagon based on Long Con's case. He didn't directly say that, but that was my take-away. I just get suspicious when people do that so early, especially when they aren't caught up with everything. It seems like posturing for a future vote on the TLib wagon.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3876

Post by Elephant »

Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:26 pm Elephant, I trust you're also thinking TLib is mislynch bait here?
I do not have an opinion on TL or Long Con's alignment yet, because I have not yet done the required work; for TL to be mislynch requires for TL to be actually town. I stopped short of analysing Long Con's case in depth when I had to leave earlier. If TL is town, then yes, they probably are one of the easier mislynches today. nutella jumping on that wagon with no more than "Love all of this.", and then switchign to Boo when nobody followed, concerns me.
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Re: I am the Elephant.

#3877

Post by Benson »

Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:56 pm
Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:33 am
Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:45 am
vanity. wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:17 pm tlib
elephant
juliets
long con
dfaraday

this is the list of suspects i'm working within today. get crackalackin.
With distance, sometimes issues appear more clearly than when they are close. We are left with eleven players in that part of the subconscious we are tasked to defend. Four of us have reached the wildcards or the finale: Spiny Creature/boo, Hyena, nutella, and vanity. They are all absent on vanity's list. Benson and Creature also do not appear on this list. It appears to me that vanity. has constructed his suspect pool largely along the lines of player ability, exempting the better players from suspicion, and going after what could be considered "low hanging fruit" in this game, with its overall high standard of players. vanity. , what was your intention behind creating this suspect list? To be quite overt about it, it does look like scum pushing mislynch bait. I am going to examine if other players here identify player quality with player alignment, but for now, I shall [VOTE: vanity.] aubergine.
If you want one more I've also reached the finale ;)
I assume you played the finale in a previous reason, is that correct?
I was voted into the season 3 finale but ended up dropping out due to my schedule conflicting, sadly. :(
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3878

Post by nutella »

Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:15 pm
nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:55 pm
Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:19 pm I don't like picking on people while they try to get started but Faraday's entrance is so wolfy. I don't like the casual: "this wagon good; that wagon bad" thing, especially when he isn't caught up.
I don't see this at all. He doesn't say anything about wagons, he just says he has reason to townread creature and he like LC's case on TL.
I thought he was implying he didn't like Creature as a wagon but supported a TLib wagon based on Long Con's case. He didn't directly say that, but that was my take-away. I just get suspicious when people do that so early, especially when they aren't caught up with everything. It seems like posturing for a future vote on the TLib wagon.
I guess you could see it that way. I didn't read any agenda into it, just him stating his thoughts at the time.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3879

Post by Elephant »

Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:16 pm
Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:26 pm Elephant, I trust you're also thinking TLib is mislynch bait here?
I do not have an opinion on TL or Long Con's alignment yet, because I have not yet done the required work; for TL to be mislynch requires for TL to be actually town. I stopped short of analysing Long Con's case in depth when I had to leave earlier. If TL is town, then yes, they probably are one of the easier mislynches today. nutella jumping on that wagon with no more than "Love all of this.", and then switchign to Boo when nobody followed, concerns me.
DFaraday in post 3817 raises the same kind of concern.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3880

Post by nutella »

Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:16 pm
Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:26 pm Elephant, I trust you're also thinking TLib is mislynch bait here?
I do not have an opinion on TL or Long Con's alignment yet, because I have not yet done the required work; for TL to be mislynch requires for TL to be actually town. I stopped short of analysing Long Con's case in depth when I had to leave earlier. If TL is town, then yes, they probably are one of the easier mislynches today. nutella jumping on that wagon with no more than "Love all of this.", and then switchign to Boo when nobody followed, concerns me.
I moved off him because I liked his defense, not because nobody followed. He sounded genuine.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3881

Post by Benson »

Random thoughts concerning Juliets after a quick read through her ISO:

When I look at this I see multiple opportunities for Juliets to stick to wolf leans on either 112 or TSP as we progress through Tuesday. But instead she goes out of her way to undermine those reads as we moved closer to EoD. Like she could have kept her options open but instead made it clear she would rather stay away from lynching 112 or TSP - two of the other primary wagons before EoD.
We now know TSP was town, and for sake of this argument lets assume 112 is also town. Why would she do that as a wolf? She boxed herself into a position where she had to vote Drago, which unless was pre-planned at the start of Tuesday, I don't see as an optimal wolf strategy. Ofc, if 112 is also a wolf this entire read can be chucked out the window but I think the odds are with me here.
Thoughts?
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3882

Post by Elephant »

nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:19 pm
Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:16 pm
Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:26 pm Elephant, I trust you're also thinking TLib is mislynch bait here?
I do not have an opinion on TL or Long Con's alignment yet, because I have not yet done the required work; for TL to be mislynch requires for TL to be actually town. I stopped short of analysing Long Con's case in depth when I had to leave earlier. If TL is town, then yes, they probably are one of the easier mislynches today. nutella jumping on that wagon with no more than "Love all of this.", and then switchign to Boo when nobody followed, concerns me.
I moved off him because I liked his defense, not because nobody followed. He sounded genuine.
DFaraday wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:00 amI like LC's case on TrustworthyLiberal, whose responses weren't super convincing to me. I haven't even tried to catch up on the 70 pages or so since I last checked in, so I don't have a lot of reads atm, but so far I guess I'm leaning towards lynching TL.
You write that he sounds genuine, DFaraday is not "super convinced". Trustworthy Liberal's replies feel as if they are coming from an "I always mess up" persona. Him overlooking that Hyena is playing with us, overlooking that Evenstar did have a major wagon D1 (maybe he was not online when that happened?), and jumping to conclusions as to how the game is split fits well with that. This persona also makes his alignment hard to read, because any incongruities could just be explained from there. Do you believe that this is in fact his genuine persona?
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3883

Post by nutella »

Yeah. There are some things I am still concerned about (like the split in two assumption) but overall I felt like he meant all that stuff sincerely and that he really does get mislynched for his style a lot.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3884

Post by Benson »

Trustworthy, when your wagon was at its height you expressed concern over how quickly it built up. I believe you were suggesting there was some nefarious intention behind it. Did you ever re-evaluate that wagon and consider whether or not it was being pushed by wolves?
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I am the Elephant.

#3885

Post by Elephant »

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:32 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:29 pm From the 5 posts of TL thay I’ve read he seemed townie.

I suspect this sort of thing happens to him a lot when he plays outside his home community but who am I to stop you from ignoring the obvious scum in order to kill sweet TL instead.
It's 100% cause home community is Speaking and this is typing blaming that but still trying am here now
Nanook vouches for Trustworthy Liberal. This would help more if we knew Nanook's alignment, but I would be surprised if nanook was blanatly wrong here.
Trustworthy Liberal wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:00 am
Long Con wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:06 am
Trustworthy Liberal wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:16 pm Sorry for inactivity birthday stuff got right out of hand last two days and called into work currently there.

Seems as if right now Everstar is the top wagon I not her who else would people vote for daycare had two lynchs as an example.

Has hyena done anything amazingly still not town reading him but havn't read up since my last post so if he did something towny I there let me know and I'll look otherwise will tonight after work.
TL, this sentence is one I don't understand. What does it mean? Daycare?

Honestly don't remember (I know that's bad but i don't)

Did anyone come up with something towny about Hyena for you? Your suspicion on Hyena seems to be based off a comparison to a game where he was bad and one where he was good. It's pretty vague, can you show us something more specific?

I think after his EoD that he could easily be coming from either side but his reasoning was towny was hoping to actually talk to him today about that but then this happened and can't really. Why i scum read him before EoD was because him coasting slowly and pressuring people is what he did in G8 on MU and something i was watching also why i wanna be able to see the second thread (assuming two) after wards cause i feel with two days of content i can be more confident on a push there.
Trustworthy Liberal wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:14 pm
juliets wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:13 pm I agree with your nova call nutella right off the bat. When I re-read him after EOD I saw scum in almost all of his posts.
Sadly unless am mistaken Nova isn't with our grouping
Two items concern me about Trustworthy Liberal.

Many of his Day 1 posts mention Hyena, and he replies to Long Con that TL was "hoping to actually talk to him today". From the quote regarding Nova, I deduce that Trustworthy Liberal checked the player list at least once. Yet TL overlooked Hyena. As a result, Trustworthy Liberal has not "shown us something more specific" nor talked to Hyena. I can see how the former is difficult for TL if he is not used to playing forum mafia games. I am hoping for TL to get involved in conversations to allow better reads on him, but I do not know if I would be able to engage TL in a productive manner.

The other item is Trustworthy Liberal's case on Dragomir. Long Con is correct in stating that it looks very weak. In the hypothetical case that Trustworthy Liberal found himself on a mafia team, he would surely bring his propensity to get lynched early to their attention. If his mafia team was concerned with that, they might hit on the idea of Trustworthy Liberal bussing a team-mate, both to provide distancing if TL got lynched, whcih was a distinct possibility, and to provide additional credibility if Dragomir was lynched. This could be especially important if Trustworthy Liberal had a more useful role than Dragomir did.

These two observations make me put Trustworthy Liberal at a slight scum lean. I have difficulty seeing town tells behind TL's persona. I do like that he has a resilient core that keeps him standing up for himself even in the face of a wagon or a case on himself. He must have aquired this core playing town-aligned roles, and it looks good on him.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3886

Post by Trustworthy Liberal »

Benson wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:20 pm Trustworthy, when your wagon was at its height you expressed concern over how quickly it built up. I believe you were suggesting there was some nefarious intention behind it. Did you ever re-evaluate that wagon and consider whether or not it was being pushed by wolves?
I had glanced over I currently on break so can look over quickly will be more active after 2pm PST. If I see anything I'll post it
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3887

Post by boo »

Nothing Hyena came in with earlier really addressed my read on them or referenced what LA said, so I'm going with [VOTE: Hyena] aubergine for the moment. I want to look over LA though, the NK analysis didn't feel right to me, will do that this evening.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3888

Post by Hyena »

Bleh. My WIM and ability to focus is pretty low at the moment, but I'm gonna try to contribute as much as I can right now.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3889

Post by nutella »

(LA is me, almost nobody else here besides juliets and LC will know that btw dude lol)
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3890

Post by nutella »

Oh and df probably
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3891

Post by nutella »

Old guard haha
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3892

Post by nutella »

Not sure what you're referring to exactly about hyena though [mention]boo[/mention] could you clarify?
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Re: I am the Elephant.

#3893

Post by Hyena »

Creature wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:49 pm
Benson wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:10 pm
Elephant wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:09 pm I still believe 112 was mafia as well.
Drago went after them very early in the game. Would he do that to a new teammate he's unfamiliar with?
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lol, I remember this interaction and I remember thinking it was "over the top" enough that it could have been a w/w interaction based on the model I have in my head of Eva's playstyle. In this case, I think it would've been an attempt to distance from Dragomir. She also explicitly said that even though she didn't like Dragomir, she didn't want to lynch him yesterday, which was why had her vote on 112.

Interestingly enough, 112's vote was ON Evenstar, so they were both voting each other EoD.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3894

Post by Hyena »

boo wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:08 pm My biggest suspect within our group is Hyena (and, happily enough, in general). The drive to force a tie (s)he, sorry, don't know most of you in this game yet engaged in struck me as wrong at the time, going so far as to ask me after I put the no lynch vote down to flip it to help cause a tie.
So, I gave an explanation earlier for why I was trying to tie the wagons as much as possible at EoD. I don't think we would've gathered much information if the wagons remained uneven before, like, the last moment. People were changing their votes between Dragomir and 112 until the very last moment, but there wouldn't have been a need to if one wagon remained greater than the other.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 1]

#3895

Post by Hyena »

Long Con wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:06 am
Trustworthy Liberal wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:16 pm Sorry for inactivity birthday stuff got right out of hand last two days and called into work currently there.

Seems as if right now Everstar is the top wagon I not her who else would people vote for daycare had two lynchs as an example.

Has hyena done anything amazingly still not town reading him but havn't read up since my last post so if he did something towny I there let me know and I'll look otherwise will tonight after work.
TL, this sentence is one I don't understand. What does it mean? Daycare?

Did anyone come up with something towny about Hyena for you? Your suspicion on Hyena seems to be based off a comparison to a game where he was bad and one where he was good. It's pretty vague, can you show us something more specific?
So, I had a theory about TL and his suspicion towards me, and I don't remember if I posted it or not on D1, but I think he's trying to catch a scum hyena to make up for not getting me lynched in the game he's talking about, since he was reeeally close to getting me lynched. Plus, I got him lynched while he was AFK during an EoD.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3896

Post by juliets »

nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:59 am
juliets wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:11 am
nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:27 am Actually except boo, I had bad feelings about spiny on d1 so I'mma vote there for now but looking forward to what he has to contribute.
[VOTE: boo] aubergine
nut will you share the reasons you had bad feelings about spiny on day 1? I just read through her and didn't come away with a particularly bad impression. She had one read on Drago where she found him suspicious though she spent most of her time arguing with Hyena about whether she town read Pawn.
If you search my iso for spiny you'll probably see me mention her a couple times. She behaves kind of oddly in a spat with hyena and ignored half of his points/questions. I think there was something else but idk. Also the fact that I specced only a couple of pages of wc2 and correctly pegged her as wolf so I want to trust my gut even though it's only a sample size of one.
Ok I'll look again at that spat with hyena. And I understand the gut thing. Thanks for your reply.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3897

Post by boo »

nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:33 pm Not sure what you're referring to exactly about hyena though @boo could you clarify?
Huh, apparently it wasn't you who said what I remember... was it JC (yes, I'm full of names only a handful of people will actually get, but I'm stuck using them all the same. change is bad.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3898

Post by boo »

Benson wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:11 pm I thought Hyena had legitimate reasons for driving a close lynch near EoD but I'll let him address that before I say anything.
Oh, it was Benson not LA or JC... dunno how I got that. I guess Ben is also Lost... let's go with that.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3899

Post by boo »

Hyena wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:47 pm
boo wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:08 pm My biggest suspect within our group is Hyena (and, happily enough, in general). The drive to force a tie (s)he, sorry, don't know most of you in this game yet engaged in struck me as wrong at the time, going so far as to ask me after I put the no lynch vote down to flip it to help cause a tie.
So, I gave an explanation earlier for why I was trying to tie the wagons as much as possible at EoD. I don't think we would've gathered much information if the wagons remained uneven before, like, the last moment. People were changing their votes between Dragomir and 112 until the very last moment, but there wouldn't have been a need to if one wagon remained greater than the other.
I saw that. I just don't buy it. How does asking me after I had just said I had no thoughts on things because I hadn't read up-to-date to try and help force a tie help give any helpful information, other than using my either doing so or not as a future reason to suspect me?
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 2]

#3900

Post by juliets »

nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:56 pm
Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:53 pm
nutella wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:28 am
Elephant wrote: Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:51 am The analysis that nutella posted along with her vote history had this:
nutella wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pmSo vanity was an earlier Drago vote, briefly left it, then eventually was the one to break the tie with Epi. He's probably just town here.
nutella wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pmBenson, iaafr, and pawn look generally okay but certainly not cleared from this. I'm trying to figure out who looks too clean and it's hard to tell. Maybe vanity.
Why does iaafr ending on "no lynch" look ok to you?
Why does Pawn Lelouch voting Dragomir look ok to you, but Trustworthy Liberal voting him next does not?
Why does Benson sheeping vanity. look ok to you? At the same time, vanity. looks "too clean", how is that?
I struggle to follow your thoughts here, nutella.
Idk, I admit I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about each player and just sort of typed up my first instincts. Your points here are definitely worth considering.

I thought those people looked ok on balance based on timing and how they defended their votes but it's not conclusive by any means.

I think Benson is just very towny overall, but I'm glad you're questioning vanity bc I'm less sure about him.
I feel that I was just very politely brushed off.
Not at all. I'd love to talk more about those people. Just don't have time to deep dive rn.
Hopefully we can talk about some of this later when you're not at work. I thought iaafr's landing on no lynch was very odd and was going to question him going into today.

And I'm also curious about the read on TL in light of when he voted.

I will be inundated with Trick or Treaters tonight but I hope I'm around for this discussion.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

Spoiler: show
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