Coronavirus Mafia [ENDGAME]

[Dragon D. Luffy]

It's either speed or juliets imo.

With maybe wilgy as a dark horse but I don't see it.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Well I'm caught up now but since this is NP I'll take the chance to let another 48 hours of thread slip by probably.

Tag me if you want me to notice something.

Cya.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Nanook is lock town.

I left in the last hour and ended up being caught up on some critical family stuff. Then later I realized I was going to miss EoD, entered discord and asked nanook what to do.

"We don't want to lynch Wilgy. Do you want to lynch MP?" - he said.

I decided to follow him.

Scum nanook had the perfect chance to save a teammate here and he passed.

I am going to push back against your reasoning without pushing back against your conclusion.

MP was always going to be in the POE unless he pulled himself out of it. He was very bussable. He was also very bussable D2 when it didn't look like there was a likely Sloonei replacement.

That said, I don't think it's Nanook. His process feels more town that scum.

That said, when I want to follow that with a statement like "I think it's Hyena" or "I think it's Speedchuck" I don't actually believe it.

I have no idea who the scum is. I'm not lockclearing Nanook. He's not the first player I'd lynch tomorrow, either.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I didn't feel like MP was a lock lynch. Like, at all.

And this was 3 minutes left. Let's say I ask nanook and he simply fails to reply. He can later blame me for disappearing while still claiming he was on MP.

He was already voting MP. I gave him the chance to nullify his own vote, in a way that puts the blame on me, and he passed on it.

[Jackofhearts2005]

My strongest reason for townreading Juliets is MP being perfectly comfortable leaving her in the POE.

My second strongest reason for townreading Juliets is her being worried Tony was town in chat. Then I said something along the lines of "Lol don't say it here, say it in thread" and implied maybe she was scum with Tony for saying that and should get it on record. She was afraid to post it in thread after I implied that because she thought if she was wrong, it would make her look really bad.

I don't think MP's partner who is in the POE with MP wants to take Tony out of it. I don't think someone who knows Tony is town is afraid to say so in thread. I think Juliets genuinely had misgivings about the entire game scumreading Tony and genuine concern that saying so in thread would increase the chance she was mislynched.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Nanook has also been pretty bullish on Juliets and bearish on Movingoonchan for most of the game, which is a really good look.

Basically anybody previously having strong opinions about not lynching Tony, Juliets or Wilgy gets points from me.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I didn't feel like MP was a lock lynch. Like, at all.

I mean, eventually. I think he was probably tied with Speedchuck or a little ahead of him as 4th most suspected player.

I agree he was nothing close to the lock lynch yesterday.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I think it's Hyena because I don't want it to be Speedchuck and I think it's Speedchuck because I don't want it to be Hyena.

[speedchuck]

I am going to push back against your reasoning without pushing back against your conclusion.

MP was always going to be in the POE unless he pulled himself out of it. He was very bussable. He was also very bussable D2 when it didn't look like there was a likely Sloonei replacement.

Nah, F that.

Look at it this way, we had a POE of 4, right?

WRONG

We had a POE of three unless one of those three happened to be a scumlynch. Numbers are important. I don't believe for a second, with this ever-narrowing POE, that scum took initiative in pre-emptively bussing one of their remaining members. Not when the game could be won a day earlier with MP in the slot.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I didn't feel like MP was a lock lynch. Like, at all.

I mean, eventually. I think he was probably tied with Speedchuck or a little ahead of him as 4th most suspected player.

I agree he was nothing close to the lock lynch yesterday.

You realize there is no guarantee anyone will follow that PoE of your except you, right?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I guess it all depends on MP's scumgame but it didn't because we lynched him.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I feel like I'm more likely to find places where Speedchuck is obviously town than places where Hyena is obviously town and I know Speed way better but everytime I say to myself "Maybe it's Hyena" I just have this internal pushback like "but he feels really town" and I know part of that is just personality and avatar.

[Jackofhearts2005]

"Gottem"

[TonyStarkPrime]

I think it's Hyena because I don't want it to be Speedchuck and I think it's Speedchuck because I don't want it to be Hyena.

Careful, last time I said this Sloonei lynched me.
Sometimes I feel like I hold grudges for too long, but then one of y’all will be like “in 2013 Epi lynched me for this wrong reason” and I realize we’re all petty.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I am going to push back against your reasoning without pushing back against your conclusion.

MP was always going to be in the POE unless he pulled himself out of it. He was very bussable. He was also very bussable D2 when it didn't look like there was a likely Sloonei replacement.

Nah, F that.

Look at it this way, we had a POE of 4, right?

WRONG

We had a POE of three unless one of those three happened to be a scumlynch. Numbers are important. I don't believe for a second, with this ever-narrowing POE, that scum took initiative in pre-emptively bussing one of their remaining members. Not when the game could be won a day earlier with MP in the slot.

This doesn’t work they way I think you’re saying, so I might misunderstand you.

If it’s MP/Juliets, he’s comfortable with a 4 person POE with Juliets but not a 4 person POE with him AND Juliets.

[speedchuck]

I am going to push back against your reasoning without pushing back against your conclusion.

MP was always going to be in the POE unless he pulled himself out of it. He was very bussable. He was also very bussable D2 when it didn't look like there was a likely Sloonei replacement.

Nah, F that.

Look at it this way, we had a POE of 4, right?

WRONG

We had a POE of three unless one of those three happened to be a scumlynch. Numbers are important. I don't believe for a second, with this ever-narrowing POE, that scum took initiative in pre-emptively bussing one of their remaining members. Not when the game could be won a day earlier with MP in the slot.

This doesn’t work they way I think you’re saying, so I might misunderstand you.

If it’s MP/Juliets, he’s comfortable with a 4 person POE with Juliets but not a 4 person POE with him AND Juliets.

I mean, yeah, there's that.

Maybe I just want to be able to assume no bussing this time. Just this once.

[speedchuck]

I really just don't think it's hyena, guys. I just don't.

I understand why I'm in Jack's POE and it sucks, though I can't do anything about that. But if I get lynched, as is probable, and then hyena gets lynched, there will only be one day left to find the actual person. F3. I'd rather it not reach that point because Jack will probably die and leave it with 3 of Wilgy, Juliets, Tony, and Nanook.

How TF is town going to solve that?

[TonyStarkPrime]

I really just don't think it's hyena, guys. I just don't.

I understand why I'm in Jack's POE and it sucks, though I can't do anything about that. But if I get lynched, as is probable, and then hyena gets lynched, there will only be one day left to find the actual person. F3. I'd rather it not reach that point because Jack will probably die and leave it with 3 of Wilgy, Juliets, Tony, and Nanook.

How TF is town going to solve that?

I think Nanook gets lynched there. Which is problematic because at least it feels like Juliets should be in POE.

[TonyStarkPrime]

But I don’t even know if I can justify that.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Maybe no one left is scum.

[speedchuck]

Important post incoming.

[juliets]

I'll re-read Hyena today and do my best to be objective but my feeling right now is it's not him.

[speedchuck]

I’ll never live it down if I cfd onto town MP twice in one game.

Hey if MP is a wolf, why is he okay with a 3 player POE of Juliets, Tony, Wilgy when we have 4 lynches and he’s done nothing to make us trust him?

Because he’s not a wolf.

Or because the other wolf isn’t in Tony/Juliets/Wilgy.

So what if this is wrong?

I know it seems like 'well of course speed is going to argue with this' but please hear me out. Nobody will go back and read this after I flip or after hyena flips, so hear me out now.

MP replaced in as scum and had 2 days, most of which he was busy, before he died. MP was town before. He sorta wins the game either way, as his old role or his new one. The role he was pushed into here was almost a 'warm body' role, a slot that needed to be filled but would never ever get out of the POE anyway.
He looks around.
Let's say the POE has scum cornered in the final four. MP doesn't appear to be on the chopping block, and momentum is turning on Tony. What does MP do here?
Does he immediately start trying to widen the POE, when he's not even in much danger of being lynched? How would that look? He can't be overt about it. He has to be subtle, build it up over time.
Maybe by shading DDL, which he did early in the day. Maybe by quizzing chuck over suggestive wording that might implicate speed or nanook, which he did again early in the day. No worries, he has time.

Until the hot potato happens.

I’ll never live it down if I cfd onto town MP twice in one game.

Hey if MP is a wolf, why is he okay with a 3 player POE of Juliets, Tony, Wilgy when we have 4 lynches and he’s done nothing to make us trust him?

Because he’s not a wolf.

Or because the other wolf isn’t in Tony/Juliets/Wilgy.

I'm not really okay with it per se, I'm just not quite at anywhere else.

It just dawned to me that lynching someone in the 3-man group is considerably harder since they get to cockblock 2 other people from voting.

That includes MP, speed and hyena.

All the more reason to give me until at least tomorrow to solve the shit out of this game.

If you don't want to trust me because I'm the one saying it, that's fine. If you want to lynch me tomorrow to test whether I have a motive behind this post, that's fine as well. But don't throw 2 days and 2 lynches down the drain entirely just because MP didn't act to change the momentum of the entire thread in a single day's time.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Careful, last time I said this Sloonei lynched me.

Imagine getting lynched.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Maybe no one left is scum.

Reminder: This happened once.

And me and Darkstone snap lynched third townie Link anyway.

[juliets]

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] I don't think I understand your post but I'm having trouble articulating why. I'll keep trying.

[Jackofhearts2005]

He's essentially saying "Maybe MP was biding his time and going to try to bus a teammate and open up the POE to include DDL and Speed rather than trying to prevent his teammate to be lynched. Therefore, Tony/Juliets/Wilgy aren't necessarily clear."

[juliets]

He's essentially saying "Maybe MP was biding his time and going to try to bus a teammate and open up the POE to include DDL and Speed rather than trying to prevent his teammate to be lynched. Therefore, Tony/Juliets/Wilgy aren't necessarily clear."

Ohhh ok thats not how I was reading it so thanks.

[speedchuck]

@speedchuck I don't think I understand your post but I'm having trouble articulating why. I'll keep trying.

TL;DR

Jack wants to clear the entire old POE (Tony, Juliets, Wilgy) because MP was comfortable with it as is.
I counter that MP didn't have the time or opportunity to change that POE in the first place, but possibly indicated that he wanted to.

linki: Jack answered too.

[juliets]

@speedchuck I don't think I understand your post but I'm having trouble articulating why. I'll keep trying.

TL;DR

Jack wants to clear the entire old POE (Tony, Juliets, Wilgy) because MP was comfortable with it as is.
I counter that MP didn't have the time or opportunity to change that POE in the first place, but possibly indicated that he wanted to.

linki: Jack answered too.

Ok thanks. I'll have to look back at his posts - I know you cited two where he seemed to be doing that.

[speedchuck]

I have to wear a mask at work as of today, and it's making me incredibly anxious for some reason.

[juliets]

I have to wear a mask at work as of today, and it's making me incredibly anxious for some reason.

I would probably feel the same way. Hope the anxiety goes away as the day goes on.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Mitigating those soft clears is that MP would be fairly tied to his old reads, yeah? I’ll have to go back and check what his readslist was before he died the first time, but as I recall it was pretty close to what he was pushing as scum, he just pushed it softer? Which suggests to me that he was building up to opening the POE.

Idk for sure though I’ll have to go back and look at stuff and that’s not happening right this second.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

@speedchuck I don't think I understand your post but I'm having trouble articulating why. I'll keep trying.

TL;DR

Jack wants to clear the entire old POE (Tony, Juliets, Wilgy) because MP was comfortable with it as is.
I counter that MP didn't have the time or opportunity to change that POE in the first place, but possibly indicated that he wanted to.

linki: Jack answered too.

And I'd like to add that just because MP agreed with a POE doesn't mean it doesn't include his teammates.

POEs change. And if I am mafia I ideally want to be my teammates' second favorite option, forever.

[juliets]

Some [mention]Hyena[/mention] things:

- Hyena, how do you feel about this today?

Also, I'm getting the vibe that Speedchuck and Nutella are NOT mafia together in spite of both of them being against going for lurkers. If Poison, or their slot, ever flip mafia though, I'd feel inclined to call one of them scum.

- But then there's this 5 minutes later. Hyena do you still think only one scum in Speed, MR, Nutella?

I've never seen a Speedchuck this active. I like it.

Hmm. Does MR ever post this if Speedchuck is their partner?

Right now, I want to say that there is never more than one scum inside {Speedchuck, MR, Nutella}. This is a group I think I can ride with for now.

- And this is why I read Hyena as town:

Actually, Nanook, would you go for MR for self-preservation purposes?

Actually, Nanook, would you go for MR for self-preservation purposes?

Obviously I’ll go anyone for self prez if it comes to it lol

Okay, cool. I'll settle for MR then.
[VOTE: Master Radish] aubergine

DDL, welcome to my towncore. You're taking MR's spot.

- This was Day 2

I think that MP is town.

I think you are scum. :3

- I also note that Hyena has read Nanook as scum most of Day 1 and 2 (and maybe beyond, I am not there yet) and also became convinced I was scum because one of Nutella's posts.

- And just as I say that I see that Hyena names Nanook to his town core on Day 2.

- Again, sees Sloonei as the right vote over Wilgy if the choice was between those two:

Regardless of if you accept the derp clear or not, sloonei is a better secret vote given that wilgy is at least playing now.

I second this. Picking between Sloonei and Wilgy, I always go with Sloonei to kill right now. With that said, I'm still unsure whether I want to go for either of them right now.

- Backs off Sloonei

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

This is another reason why I'm hesitant to go for Sloonei. I feel like I got a peek into their soul in that post and saw towniness.

- Another backing off of Sloonei

2:50 left. We need to start consolidating. I've outlined who my favorites for the lynch are, and I'm leaning toward nutella between the three. If we actively use the secret vote on a public figure, I have to figure out who to NOT lynch, which is actually harder.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

linki: hrm

I think Nutella is town, but I think I'd be okay with voting them if we also get rid of Jules. I don't think I want to go with Jack's suggestion of Sloonei anymore.

- This was not a good vote but I think your other possibility was nutella so I can't fault you too much.

Alright, my secret vote is in.

Now for my actual vote.

[VOTE: Juliets] aubergine

- I think I believe this. Bat doesn't seem to fit with "idiots who lick things on grocery shelves".

I'm a bat. If I'm lynched, any mafia that voted me will be roleblocked the following night.

I'm a bat. If I'm lynched, any mafia that voted me will be roleblocked the following night.

The the reason I want to claim is that MP7 flipped as mafia with a roleblocking ability like me.

-------------------------

Hyena doesn't get everything right (like wanting to take out me and nutella and backing off Sloonei) but then what civ does. His Day 1 vote deal with Nanook is by far the thing that looks the most civ about him. I just can't see how he would put 2 votes on a teammate in such a close lynch. He's definitely on my town list and if he's not on yours how do you explain that vote? I feel the most confident of him and Jack at the moment.

[Jackofhearts2005]

@speedchuck I don't think I understand your post but I'm having trouble articulating why. I'll keep trying.

TL;DR

Jack wants to clear the entire old POE (Tony, Juliets, Wilgy) because MP was comfortable with it as is.
I counter that MP didn't have the time or opportunity to change that POE in the first place, but possibly indicated that he wanted to.

linki: Jack answered too.

And I'd like to add that just because MP agreed with a POE doesn't mean it doesn't include his teammates.

POEs change. And if I am mafia I ideally want to be my teammates' second favorite option, forever.

At the very least, I think it clears Tony.

[speedchuck]

@speedchuck I don't think I understand your post but I'm having trouble articulating why. I'll keep trying.

TL;DR

Jack wants to clear the entire old POE (Tony, Juliets, Wilgy) because MP was comfortable with it as is.
I counter that MP didn't have the time or opportunity to change that POE in the first place, but possibly indicated that he wanted to.

linki: Jack answered too.

And I'd like to add that just because MP agreed with a POE doesn't mean it doesn't include his teammates.

POEs change. And if I am mafia I ideally want to be my teammates' second favorite option, forever.

At the very least, I think it clears Tony.

It's at least an extremely good look for Tony.

[speedchuck]

Wilgy's dayend vote and Tony's infodump on him don't look so good.

It'd be crazy if we spent N1 and half of D2 yelling at each other while the scum slots were inactive.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm not sure how much weight to put into claims.

Like I'm a generic MSNBC reporter so a generic virus denier could be a thing.

More to the point, just about everyone has flipped as a character or a program or whatever while both wolves flipped as "groups of people doing stupid things."

Like...I don't expect the last wolf to claim group of people doing stupid things and just because Wilgy claimed singular person doing a stupid thing doesn't make him a wolf.

[Hyena]

I could potentially confirm whether or not Tony is town by you guys lynching me and making sure that Tony is on my wagon. If he's mafia, he won't be able to do another gimmick that night because he'd be roleblocked. That would require lynching me though. :P

[Hyena]

Like, who else, aside from Tony and Jack, has an active ability that they can use during the night?

[speedchuck]

I could potentially confirm whether or not Tony is town by you guys lynching me and making sure that Tony is on my wagon. If he's mafia, he won't be able to do another gimmick that night because he'd be roleblocked. That would require lynching me though. :P

Why wouldn't we just lynch tony in that case?

[speedchuck]

Like, who else, aside from Tony and Jack, has an active ability that they can use during the night?

I don't.

[Epignosis]

I have to wear a mask at work as of today, and it's making me incredibly anxious for some reason.

Betty Boop was all they had left huh?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Actually I would assume that mafia can choose not to kill.

Otherwise it’s kind of broken once there’s one mafia left.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

So maybe it isn’t THAT risky of a fake claim. Still inclined to believe it but maybe not as blindly confident as I was.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm not sure how much weight to put into claims.

Like I'm a generic MSNBC reporter so a generic virus denier could be a thing.

More to the point, just about everyone has flipped as a character or a program or whatever while both wolves flipped as "groups of people doing stupid things."

Like...I don't expect the last wolf to claim group of people doing stupid things and just because Wilgy claimed singular person doing a stupid thing doesn't make him a wolf.

I take Wilgy's claim more seriously because of this.

[TonyStarkPrime]

@speedchuck I don't think I understand your post but I'm having trouble articulating why. I'll keep trying.

TL;DR

Jack wants to clear the entire old POE (Tony, Juliets, Wilgy) because MP was comfortable with it as is.
I counter that MP didn't have the time or opportunity to change that POE in the first place, but possibly indicated that he wanted to.

linki: Jack answered too.

And I'd like to add that just because MP agreed with a POE doesn't mean it doesn't include his teammates.

POEs change. And if I am mafia I ideally want to be my teammates' second favorite option, forever.

Juliets has occupied this role this game.

[juliets]

@speedchuck I don't think I understand your post but I'm having trouble articulating why. I'll keep trying.

TL;DR

Jack wants to clear the entire old POE (Tony, Juliets, Wilgy) because MP was comfortable with it as is.
I counter that MP didn't have the time or opportunity to change that POE in the first place, but possibly indicated that he wanted to.

linki: Jack answered too.

And I'd like to add that just because MP agreed with a POE doesn't mean it doesn't include his teammates.

POEs change. And if I am mafia I ideally want to be my teammates' second favorite option, forever.

Juliets has occupied this role this game.

What? I've occupied what role?

[juliets]

Like, who else, aside from Tony and Jack, has an active ability that they can use during the night?

I do not.