Coronavirus Mafia [ENDGAME]

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don't like the Sloonei secret lynch it seems wrong. I agree that we need to resolve the slot and having inactives towards game-end can be problematic, but it's still relatively early. There's no reason to assume long term that the slot will remain empty.

My scum reads converging on it as an option suggests that we have the possibility of double scum lynch in our options range here.

[nutella]

I looked into LC earlier -- I was also thinking that his MR interactions didn't look great, but then I saw that one post of his during the flavor-alignment discussion that I just could never see coming from non-town. Maybe I shouldn't put as much stock in that as I am though.

Please requote it. I have the memory of a koala.

I think your argument can be boiled down to “Option 2 seems useless but at least pro-town” which is probably wrong on at least one side

I mean, suppose Donald Trump is mafia. Hard to say forcing someone to do a Donald Trump impression isn't protown.

It's just the implication that if the mafia was like Trump, VInce McMahon, Kelly Loeffler, etc, that option would be too good so things aren't that easy.

Idk. There should be some sort of theme to the scum team, I'd imagine.

My own role is one that I would immediately assume is an evil role, but I'm a civilian. That's why I thought that the teams are probably divided among infected and uninfected, or something.

[juliets]

I don't like the Sloonei secret lynch it seems wrong. I agree that we need to resolve the slot and having inactives towards game-end can be problematic, but it's still relatively early. There's no reason to assume long term that the slot will remain empty.

My scum reads converging on it as an option suggests that we have the possibility of double scum lynch in our options range here.

Who would you suggest Tony?

[speedchuck]

I looked into LC earlier -- I was also thinking that his MR interactions didn't look great, but then I saw that one post of his during the flavor-alignment discussion that I just could never see coming from non-town. Maybe I shouldn't put as much stock in that as I am though.

Please requote it. I have the memory of a koala.

I think your argument can be boiled down to “Option 2 seems useless but at least pro-town” which is probably wrong on at least one side

I mean, suppose Donald Trump is mafia. Hard to say forcing someone to do a Donald Trump impression isn't protown.

It's just the implication that if the mafia was like Trump, VInce McMahon, Kelly Loeffler, etc, that option would be too good so things aren't that easy.

Idk. There should be some sort of theme to the scum team, I'd imagine.

My own role is one that I would immediately assume is an evil role, but I'm a civilian. That's why I thought that the teams are probably divided among infected and uninfected, or something.

Mmm that's alright I guess. Thanks.

[nutella]

Nanook, Tony, nutella, based on your own role card, what alignment do you think Alex Jones would have?

and this one too [mention]speedchuck[/mention], the fact that he was the one who brought up this point makes me think his perspective on this was pure. I think the later statement I quoted above really sealed it for me though. Thinking about it again and now knowing MR's mafia role, I suppose he could have been coming from the perspective of knowing that the scum roles were not necessarily really "bad" and figured there might be town roles that aren't totally "good" and did this in hopes of getting some credit, but that seems far fetched even for LC imo.

[speedchuck]

Nanook, Tony, nutella, based on your own role card, what alignment do you think Alex Jones would have?

and this one too speedchuck, the fact that he was the one who brought up this point makes me think his perspective on this was pure. I think the later statement I quoted above really sealed it for me though. Thinking about it again and now knowing MR's mafia role, I suppose he could have been coming from the perspective of knowing that the scum roles were not necessarily really "bad" and figured there might be town roles that aren't totally "good" and did this in hopes of getting some credit, but that seems far fetched even for LC imo.

Fair enough.

I'm not sure how relevant the whole thing it, but it's a good point.
Lc looks good in general, honestly, other than the pings I stated.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m not giving credit to Wilgy for scumreading a player who died 20 hours prior. That info would be all over scumchat. It’s a really easy thing to fake and it doesn’t move my read of him at all.

[juliets]

I’m not giving credit to Wilgy for scumreading a player who died 20 hours prior. That info would be all over scumchat. It’s a really easy thing to fake and it doesn’t move my read of him at all.

Jack are you arguing for him to be the secret vote instead of Sloonei?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m not giving credit to Wilgy for scumreading a player who died 20 hours prior. That info would be all over scumchat. It’s a really easy thing to fake and it doesn’t move my read of him at all.

Jack are you arguing for him to be the secret vote instead of Sloonei?

Not necessarily.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Regardless of if you accept the derp clear or not, sloonei is a better secret vote given that wilgy is at least playing now.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Some questions to consider:

If nutella is scum, would she be as up-front-and-center as she is now? Kinda powerwolfing if so, even if she's suspected.

If MP is town (regardless of nutella's alignment) would he be voting only based on who he can save and who he trusts rather than, IDK, actually having reads of his own?

Absolutely yes.

Huh?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Consider if Sloonei is the type of player to watch teammate Radish get blasted and teammate Nutella or MP get hanged up on and then replace out after a few posts.

I don’t think he is. A Nutella/Sloonei lynch is similar to a Nutella/Juliets lynch. It’s unlikely to catch two wolves. More likely to catch one even if we’re wrong on our main suspect.

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

[Hyena]

Regardless of if you accept the derp clear or not, sloonei is a better secret vote given that wilgy is at least playing now.

I second this. Picking between Sloonei and Wilgy, I always go with Sloonei to kill right now. With that said, I'm still unsure whether I want to go for either of them right now.

[Jackofhearts2005]

*ganged up on

[Hyena]

Consider if Sloonei is the type of player to watch teammate Radish get blasted and teammate Nutella or MP get hanged up on and then replace out after a few posts.

I don’t think he is. A Nutella/Sloonei lynch is similar to a Nutella/Juliets lynch. It’s unlikely to catch two wolves. More likely to catch one even if we’re wrong on our main suspect.

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

Hmm. I'll have to make a note of this.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Consider if Sloonei is the type of player to watch teammate Radish get blasted and teammate Nutella or MP get hanged up on and then replace out after a few posts.

I don’t think he is. A Nutella/Sloonei lynch is similar to a Nutella/Juliets lynch. It’s unlikely to catch two wolves. More likely to catch one even if we’re wrong on our main suspect.

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

I think sloonei replacing out is pretty NAI. I pretty strongly suspect that they’d play if they had the time as either alignment tbh.

[Hyena]

Alright, here's how I'm feeling right now. There's enough resistance against MP7's wagon that I still seriously think he's scum, but there's enough suspicion on him now where if I died tonight, I don't think I'd be too worried about people letting him slip by a couple more days. I think I'm okay with going somewhere in {Nutella, Jules, Sloonei}. Initially, I thought we'd have a better chance at hitting (at least) one wolf by going for Nutella+Jules, but Jack, who I'm strongly townreading is suggesting Nutella+Sloonei is more likely to hit a wold than the former.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I will shoot Sloonei if that's the consensus. He might be bad. He might have bowed back out due to the extra pressures of being bad. He might be Civ, and the secret votes will be unanimous. We can't let him get to Final 3 either way, right?

Shoot?

[nutella]

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

[Hyena]

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

This is another reason why I'm hesitant to go for Sloonei. I feel like I got a peek into their soul in that post and saw towniness.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Okay so jack voted sig, apparently. I was one of the MR voters, and I'm not on my own readlist. Sorry for the confusion.

Anywho.

Nanook voted Sig for self Prez. I suspect everyone else who voted Sig except Jack.
Why DID you vote Sig, Jack?

Cause I townread Tony and MP and didn’t have time to actually catch up.

[Hyena]

Here's where I'm at

Long Con
Master Radishes
112
Hyena
juliets
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
sig
Jackofhearts2005
speedchuck
Poison Chan
Dragon D. Luffy
DrWilgy
TonyStarkPrime
M Plus 7

Damn I forgot Wilgy was even in the game, lol. Also had a hard time placing Jack as he hasn't said much of substance yet. Keeping an eye out for him.

[VOTE: M Plus 7] aubergine I feel more secure in this than in a Tony vote atm.

Hey, you beat me to it, lol.

I'll support you and Speed here.

[VOTE: M Plus 7] aubergine

Meh. I'd have to read Nutella's progression on MP7 again, but this makes me second guess myself.

[speedchuck]

Okay so jack voted sig, apparently. I was one of the MR voters, and I'm not on my own readlist. Sorry for the confusion.

Anywho.

Nanook voted Sig for self Prez. I suspect everyone else who voted Sig except Jack.
Why DID you vote Sig, Jack?

Cause I townread Tony and MP and didn’t have time to actually catch up.

Yeah you were behind d1

[speedchuck]

Yeah I just can't reconcile Nutella and MP being aligned with some things they've done, even if a lot of buddying/pocketing stuff has happened.

[Hyena]

Also, I'm getting the vibe that Speedchuck and Nutella are NOT mafia together in spite of both of them being against going for lurkers. If Poison, or their slot, ever flip mafia though, I'd feel inclined to call one of them scum.

Nutella and MR are also probably not together. I'm basing that read on the MR post to Nutella asking the rhetorical question about odds and math.

I've never seen a Speedchuck this active. I like it.

Hmm. Does MR ever post this if Speedchuck is their partner?

Right now, I want to say that there is never more than one scum inside {Speedchuck, MR, Nutella}. This is a group I think I can ride with for now.

I forgot I made this read, too. It still makes sense in my head, and since Radish flipped scum, I kinda want to call Nutella town now?

[speedchuck]

2:50 left. We need to start consolidating. I've outlined who my favorites for the lynch are, and I'm leaning toward nutella between the three. If we actively use the secret vote on a public figure, I have to figure out who to NOT lynch, which is actually harder.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

linki: hrm

[Hyena]

2:50 left. We need to start consolidating. I've outlined who my favorites for the lynch are, and I'm leaning toward nutella between the three. If we actively use the secret vote on a public figure, I have to figure out who to NOT lynch, which is actually harder.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

linki: hrm

I think Nutella is town, but I think I'd be okay with voting them if we also get rid of Jules. I don't think I want to go with Jack's suggestion of Sloonei anymore.

[Hyena]

Yes, I know. I'm waffling again.

[speedchuck]

Hi I'm nutella and I hate no-poster policy lynches

Hi everyone, my name is MR, and it's been three years since I policy lynched a no poster.

Like come on guys, that slot is probabilistically more likely town than not, whereas we have thread content to analyze for all other slots that may help us determine that someone has more likelihood to be scum. Not to get mathy about it but it's just all around a dumb thing to do to lynch that slot. Allow me to say it -- it's -EV.

How are you with odds, Ms Mathy?

As in: what are the odds one of PC's voters is scum?

I don't even know how many scum there are, so I couldn't tell you.

I didn't expect a literal answer. I just meant that it would be a scummy thing do to hop on a 0 poster to 'prompt' them, if they didn't know where else to safely land right now.

Fuck it let’s kill nutella?

Just thinking this. Pushy case on M and possibly pocketing me.

[VOTE: Nutella] aubergine

Pop quiz!

Jack is mafia. Who can tell me why?

Don't know, but from my limited meta I'm feeling he sounds a bit like Inception Jack lately.

This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

My townleans are spread out across the wagons. That suggests to me the wolves are too.

Tied votes are more often than not v/v, although I don't know how a 3-way tie factors into that. (I know it wasn't an actual tied vote, but Nook's final vote to self-pres was an obvious enough switch.) I'm not going to argue with anyone about that assertion about tied votes - disagree if you want, but that's an observation from many games of experience.

If Nook is scum, his scum buddies are more likely on me and Sig, as it would be quite risky to vote for a teammate in such a close vote (and most of these votes occured in the final hours, when it was clear enough that Nook was a potential wagon). I'm looking at TSP and Jack on Sig, and DDL and Hyena on me. The others had some signs of progression or, in MP7's case, was bouncing around like a rubber ball already. If anyone is a wolf on scumNook's wagon, I guess it'd be LC or 112, but that doesn't jive with my reads on them.

If Nook is town, the scum may be more evenly spread (although I won't forget that last game they piled up on me when I was mislynched, so that's not a hard and fast rule). Regardless, I haven't changed my mind on LC or 112, so that would mean Nutella would be the scum voter in this case, particularly since she didn't mind following MP7's directions to vote there. I see no reason that doesn't fit. But I'd still look at TSP/Jack and DDL/Hyena as sig was clearly a safe landing spot for a scum vote, and I am as well.


tl;dr regardless of Nook's alignment, I plan to ISO TSP, Jack, DDL, and Hyena first and foremost. The other votes felt natural or were clearly built up to.

These may not be in order.

[speedchuck]

MR back and forths with nutella a good bit. Scumreads her several times, but not sure how hard he pushed on that. The second exchange above, the one Hyena pointed out, is genuinely awkward.

[juliets]

2:50 left. We need to start consolidating. I've outlined who my favorites for the lynch are, and I'm leaning toward nutella between the three. If we actively use the secret vote on a public figure, I have to figure out who to NOT lynch, which is actually harder.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

linki: hrm

I think Nutella is town, but I think I'd be okay with voting them if we also get rid of Jules. I don't think I want to go with Jack's suggestion of Sloonei anymore.

What sense does it make to vote nutella if you think she's town?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

Cause your case on Juliets isn’t convincing.

[speedchuck]

2:50 left. We need to start consolidating. I've outlined who my favorites for the lynch are, and I'm leaning toward nutella between the three. If we actively use the secret vote on a public figure, I have to figure out who to NOT lynch, which is actually harder.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

linki: hrm

I think Nutella is town, but I think I'd be okay with voting them if we also get rid of Jules. I don't think I want to go with Jack's suggestion of Sloonei anymore.

What sense does it make to vote nutella if you think she's town?

That's my vote right there, not hyenas.

[speedchuck]

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

Cause your case on Juliets isn’t convincing.

I'm not following you here.

[Hyena]

2:50 left. We need to start consolidating. I've outlined who my favorites for the lynch are, and I'm leaning toward nutella between the three. If we actively use the secret vote on a public figure, I have to figure out who to NOT lynch, which is actually harder.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

linki: hrm

I think Nutella is town, but I think I'd be okay with voting them if we also get rid of Jules. I don't think I want to go with Jack's suggestion of Sloonei anymore.

What sense does it make to vote nutella if you think she's town?

Because I believe there's a wolf between you two, but I'm not sure which. Thus, I don't know if I feel comfortable going for just one of you today.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

Cause your case on Juliets isn’t convincing.

I'm not following you here.

Like the case on Juliets is so unconvincing, it doesn’t even move her below the null slot that is Sloonei.

[speedchuck]

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

Cause your case on Juliets isn’t convincing.

I'm not following you here.

Like the case on Juliets is so unconvincing, it doesn’t even move her below the null slot that is Sloonei.

Oh.

Hard disagree.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m pretty fine with lynching Nutella and any of MP, Sloonei, Juliets, Wilgy.

My guess between the four is MP but that’s my POE and three of them are basically null reads for me.

[Hyena]

This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

Wait a sec. I forgot about Nook's wagon. Sig and 112 flipped town. If Nook is town, then at least one of Nute and LC are probably scum. Unless, somehow the wagon is pure?

[Hyena]

This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

Wait a sec. I forgot about Nook's wagon. Sig and 112 flipped town. If Nook is town, then at least one of Nute and LC are probably scum. Unless, somehow the wagon is pure?

I can't remember. Has anyone looked back to see how MP7 and Jules have interacted?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

Cause your case on Juliets isn’t convincing.

I'm not following you here.

Like the case on Juliets is so unconvincing, it doesn’t even move her below the null slot that is Sloonei.

Oh.

Hard disagree.

She quoted four posts, said they didn’t interact enough and also a vague tone read....on Juliets.

I guess Juliets is more likely to be scum than Sloonei just cause wagonomics but whatever it’s close and Jules is less aligned with Nutella.

[Hyena]

Voting MP7 cuz who knows when the next chance to do that will be

[VOTE: M Plus 7] aubergine

DDL, I don't understand this vote. Is there any further explanation?

Wasn't this vote from DDL an early D1 vote?

[juliets]

Guys, honestly, read Nutella's response to my suspicion of her. Does she sound like scum there? I don't think so.

[Hyena]

This is also your first game in awhile, I believe, and I'm the player you know best. In fact, I suspect you're not overly familiar with anyone else except to some extent Hyena and Nutella. So I wasn't surprised that you zeroed in on me (/us) immediately and ignored other players.

What if I'm not actually suspecting you, am mafia, and just FoSed you in order to score townpoints? You're just assuming I'm town, which is exactly what I want in the proverbial world where I'm scum.

Oh my god this is amazing, I am on this.

[VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine

This is probably the best point against MR.

@Master Radishes what do you have to say about this? Were you assuming 112 is town, and if so do you have good reason for that?

This argument is always always flawed. Yes, scum does it, but town does most of the time too. Paranoia is a good town tell, but the lack of it post by post isn’t a good scum tell.

Tony, I have read this like five times and I'm too dense to understand it. What is the "it" that scum does and town does most of the time too?

This is the second instance that has Jules responding to a post that either has a vote in it or has quoted a vote in it. Radish, as we know, flipped mafia.

[speedchuck]

Guys, honestly, read Nutella's response to my suspicion of her. Does she sound like scum there? I don't think so.

Because meta?

The response itself didn't make much of an impression on me.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Guys, honestly, read Nutella's response to my suspicion of her. Does she sound like scum there? I don't think so.

Because meta?

The response itself didn't make much of an impression on me.

+1

[juliets]

This is also your first game in awhile, I believe, and I'm the player you know best. In fact, I suspect you're not overly familiar with anyone else except to some extent Hyena and Nutella. So I wasn't surprised that you zeroed in on me (/us) immediately and ignored other players.

What if I'm not actually suspecting you, am mafia, and just FoSed you in order to score townpoints? You're just assuming I'm town, which is exactly what I want in the proverbial world where I'm scum.

Oh my god this is amazing, I am on this.

[VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine

This is probably the best point against MR.

@Master Radishes what do you have to say about this? Were you assuming 112 is town, and if so do you have good reason for that?

This argument is always always flawed. Yes, scum does it, but town does most of the time too. Paranoia is a good town tell, but the lack of it post by post isn’t a good scum tell.

Tony, I have read this like five times and I'm too dense to understand it. What is the "it" that scum does and town does most of the time too?

This is the second instance that has Jules responding to a post that either has a vote in it or has quoted a vote in it. Radish, as we know, flipped mafia.

Can you explain that thought again? I don't know what you're talking about.

[nutella]

This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

Wait a sec. I forgot about Nook's wagon. Sig and 112 flipped town. If Nook is town, then at least one of Nute and LC are probably scum. Unless, somehow the wagon is pure?

I think the wagon is pure. Why do you think it can't be?

[Hyena]

Ok this sounds more like the civ MPlus7 I remember.

What about it specifically?

You came out firing questions off, trying to pin people down for their opinions and takes.

@M Plus 7, I'm not following your read on 112 and nutella. Did you think that interaction between them was distancing? What about it made you think that as opposed to just a normal interaction (assuming that's what you thought). I'm not reading either of them as scum right now so whatever you're seeing I'd like to know.

@Hyena I see your vote for 112 but I think you have talked about why you find her scummy so I'll go back to your posts.

Ehhhh... okay, maybe not. I dunno anymore.

[speedchuck]

This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

Wait a sec. I forgot about Nook's wagon. Sig and 112 flipped town. If Nook is town, then at least one of Nute and LC are probably scum. Unless, somehow the wagon is pure?

I think the wagon is pure. Why do you think it can't be?

If it is, and the MR wagon is also pure, then EVERY SINGLE ACTIVE SCUM (minus MR) jumped on sig. Do you think that likely? (I've actually realized a possible answer but want to see your response)