Space Invaders [END]

[tutuu]

EM is basically clicking buttons. It will be amusing but sure ill link u an EM game lol

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

By dead do you mean like

Nuked and gone forever

Or just nobody plays anymore?

Owner sold the domain

Big oof

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

That’s pretty disappointing tbh I was all inspired to do a brief meta dive too

[tutuu]

On second thought I wont bother going on laptop just to link an EM game that u need an account to view in the first place its literally not forum mafia

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

K, I’ll just try to make the read in isolation then

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

So, tutuu’s progression is kinda sketching me out here. In chronological order her progression is:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 79#p618579

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 13#p619113

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 38#p619138

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p619394

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 45#p619545

Coming back to this on my laptop later, can’t do it well from phone

[protocultures]

My memory says you townread epi before the Soneji yeet. If so, the basis of that read?

[mention]Long Con[/mention]

response still pending - reminder to self

[protocultures]

Final thoughts anyone? I'm hoping this isnt a DADV scenario but since he appears to have given up I'm feeling okay about it

What is DADV?

[protocultures]

I think I understand what Epi is trying to do here and if my theory is correct he's town

Found the reference. Can you share?

Found answer. You thought they were reaction checking you so you flipped your read of them to town. Epi then confirms they weren't doing anything of the sort. Why do you hold a townread on them?

[mention]Alison[/mention]

response still pending - reminder to self

[protocultures]

if he flips town i think we lose

Can you explain the thought process leading up to this conclusion?

I am just confused by it. I think others are too.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Let's say.... protections from @Alison @Dyslexicon @protocultures and @TonyStarkPrime


Since there are only two aliens left that should guarantee I'm okay. @Epignosis and @tutuu, no need to use yours up, thank you.

Order recieved.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I think maybe a few bunkers should use saves on townreads tonight. Thinking about this more, if we obviously guarantee that I'm saved, aliens will just kill two other townies easily. I think we have the room to use extra saves here and it would be great if we don't lose 2 people at night. So maybe we should assign some people to use saves (but not say on whom)?

With 2 NKs and what’s looking to be a faster game, I think it is proper for almost all the bunkers to be used.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Let's say.... protections from @Alison @Dyslexicon @protocultures and @TonyStarkPrime


Since there are only two aliens left that should guarantee I'm okay. @Epignosis and @tutuu, no need to use yours up, thank you.

Order recieved.

You can go to three

[TonyStarkPrime]

Meh... could? Be proto/dizzy. Proto dizzy scared of killing Hally N1?

There are consensus townreads. Use bunkers. Not on me.

[protocultures]

Your calc looks like a permutation for AAT. But ATA and TAA also all result in not enough saves on Nutella. That's what I mean by 3 combos cos from the numbers it looks like 18/990 which I eyeball to be 1.8% but I dont trust math I did in bed on mobile.

Will check in the morning

[mention]Carotenoid[/mention]

2 aliens, 9 bunkers. RNG pick 3 distribution of outcomes:

3 town: 9/11 x 8/10 x 7/9 x (1 combo) = 504/990 = 51%

2 town, 1 alien: 9/11 x 8/10 x 2/9 x (3 combos) = 432/990 = 43.6%

1 town, 2 aliens: 9/11 x 2/10 x 1/9 x (3 combos) = 54/990 = 5.4%

Total adds up to 100% so its 5.4% with Nutella random picks 3 scheme and not 1.8%.
Since we are winning but a lot, I don’t think we should accept 5.4% and go for a Nutella pick 4 plan.
Im not going to do the math on RNG4 but hopefully people get that this reduces the risk factor from 5.4% by a lot. Like a lot a lot.
[mention]Nutella[/mention]

[TonyStarkPrime]

It reduces it to 0, believe it or not.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Math is an unnecessary tool. 3 is a risk. 4 is not a risk.

[protocultures]

Let's say.... protections from @Alison @Dyslexicon @protocultures and @TonyStarkPrime


Since there are only two aliens left that should guarantee I'm okay. @Epignosis and @tutuu, no need to use yours up, thank you.

I believe that two shots is the max that any number of Aliens could have done on an even night.

alright. @Alison I'm removing you from the pool to save me, feel free to save someone else instead.


I really think we have few enough nights left that it'd honestly be fine for everyone to save someone tonight lol. Maybe we even assign them all out loud and it could work out that actually nobody could die?? Hmmm


Seriously I'm not mathing this out so if what I'm saying is bullshit lmk

Impossible to save everyone.

You would be putting 4 players into guaranteed death assuming 4 saves on you (which is what I think you need). Of those 4, 2 would remain alive who you could assign high mafia equity. The cost is an additional 5 bunker saves.

That's almost 2 laser shots.

I still agree with Nanook that never worth to save anyone not Nutella when there are this many players still in the game.

Potential errors in my model - feel free to poke holes etc

If four people use their bunker protects to save themselves, then that is equal to one Alien kill of a full Bunker, with regards to the number of protections left for nutella. Then if the Aliens get a kill, that's more shots lost. Doesn't seem like much right now, but in two days, if nutella misses the next two laser shots, we could end up with people running low. Then we'll have to rely on bluffing? Not ideal.

When will the Aliens start to assume we're bluffing about the level of protection on nutella? Will they ever risk a shot on her? What if their strategy is to ignore nutella and win the old-fashioned way? Having the first two shots going off Ripley-style really puts a crimp in any plan like that.

If no one protects themselves, we will lose two bunkers tonight. If people protect themselves, we really could end up losing two bunkers anyway.

I like this. Its like I can see LongCon slowly coming round to my view of why I think stuff is to towns wincoin and what is antitown.

I wish they would science it, but they are doing it intuitively which I can follow.

[protocultures]

It reduces it to 0, believe it or not.

winner winner

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

nutella
tutuu
dunya
alison
hally
proto
dizzy

epi

mcdougall
nanook
carotte
TSP

rej
LC

Start here N1, by D2 we're here, in the same place. which is fine

I think its 3/6 in Rej, LC, Nanook, Carotte, MacDougall, TSP

If I wanted to tighten it down I'd remove TSP and MacDougall maybe

Pew pew Rej

Tommorow pew pew Carotte if she flips maf she spewed Tony town and last maf is most likely LC

If shes town then i guess ... Id still want LC dead and 0 clue on last maf because they would have fooled me

Still consistent, me and Mac have disappeared tho

i think its rej + carotenoid + lc/nanook

or

alison + nanook + rej

Same time as

nutella town
im town
proto town
you town

i believe dizzy saying he wouldnt kill hally

epi towny for being a solo agent and didnt he also say the same about killing hally?

tony i finally warmed up to and i think i understand him more now. i no longer "scumread his personality". personally i dont care about the soneji thing wrt tony

long con for his day 2, i think it was much better than his d1
(long con town i meant)

macD for his emotion on d1, and his "redemption arc" where he then started firing off cool sounding posts

alison im lowkey paranoid for being a mafia mastermind, but, thats only if she hard bussed carotte (and if carotte is maf in the first place) so i dont wanna think about it

so from my pov poe is nanook + rej + carotte

The big thing here is Alison, especially that Alison is being pushed as a busser of carrotte...but then they're...not aligned? What? I can accept bringing LC out of the POE over 12 hours without talking about it, but like...this is the kind of thing that doesn't make sense and is relatively commonly a thing mafia does cause they forget their reads/the worlds they've built.

So yeah, it's not exactly a smoking gun, but I'd say somewhat >rand mafia.

[protocultures]

I'm at that giant ass proto post on page 28.

I'm going to do two things with this just for fun.

First, I'm going to count how many times "Epi" appears in it.

I pasted it all into Word so I didn't get Topic Review posts or my own username at the top.

If you want to guess, feel free. The number is in the spoiler:

Spoiler: show

19 goddamn instances of "Epi" in a single post judging others according to a "suspect" who has not even had his alignment revealed.

Wild.

The second thing I want to do is look at a few specific items contained therein.

Hally – lock town atm and im okay losing to them if they are an alien. Got to get burned at least once to learn and cant just be paranoid all game because someone said your scum game is amazeballs. Being universally townread when you also subjectively townread them should give you some confidence that the read is correct.

Hally was murdered Night 1.

If Hally is "locktown," why the hell didn't protocultures protect this individual from death?

It's over the top, histrionic praise that means nothing if you don't back it up.

This is horseshit.

Alison – hard town after shoving the paranoid down re meta dive. Im already deep into your pocket, you can stop calling me town now. I might be guilt of the double “L” issue. Sometimes I will forget, sometimes my phone does weird stuff with spelling, but I will try. Alison probing LC is also towny imo.

I don't understand most of this.

I do understand the first two words after the name.

And at this juncture I hope nutella blasts one of these two.

Lon Con – happy they are posting more, but wish they would post even more than they have. Were my number 2 alien due to not participating that much/solving/contributing to help town. Don’t want them in POE as I feel that can develop a read on them if they continue to post. Is open to Epi being an alien and attempted to explain to me why Epi is being townread by the majority of the game for things I think are clear anti wincon for town. Strictly speaking NAI as well, but I want to encourage more engagement with them.

Rej – kinda null on them, they don’t post that much which makes it hard to remember things. Hopefully they post more so I can develop a read.

I want to contrast these two opinions.

Long Con was the #2 alien due to an apparent lack of posts.

Even when LC posts more, it isn't enough.

Rej managed about half the posts LC did, and Rej is granted a "kinda null on them."

Soneji had what, nine posts? Got "very very light town."

Either protoculture's colorwheel is broken or his calculator needs to be given some cement 80085.

Dyslexicon – has stopped memeing and is giving content which I like. No strong opinion yet, but I probably don’t want them in POE for day 2. Unlikely to be aliens with Hally for letting new people know Hally has a scary scum game. Quite like most of their list here http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p618094
Wish they didn’t hard defend Epi for being objectively anti town, but giving them a towny mindset which could be faked. Potential partner with Epi.

You're running out of potential partners for me.

Nanook – seems hard town for NOT wanting saves to be expended except on Nutella. I hard agree with this from a mechanics perspective at least until the number of players reduces a bit. Its simply too hard to expend a save, and try to save a maximum of 4 bunker shots when you are saving into 12 candidates. It can’t be correct. I don’t think an alien ever pushes this agenda because its anti wincon. Also, are you Clem? “Smart townies make dumb reads literally all the time” – yes, but should they be townread for doing it or scumread?

I have always said I'm protecting nutella (unless she asks me not to do that).

Yet I'm only telling people what I'm doing. Nanook is telling other people what they should do and you're cool with that. Okay.

For the record, if I'm an alien, I want all the protections on one target and concentrated so I can pick off the bunkers and make them waste their chances.

But you're not a civilian anyway, so I don't care about your "math."

Probably Common Core math anyway.

I'm skipping the rest. I'm bored with this post. I'll end here:

Epi – thinks I am an alien, still has not given any evidence or logic behind the allegation.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 68#p617568

"Still has not given any evidence or logic behind the allegation" and to PROVE THIS LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

I announced that I was going to watch TV with my wife.

Well now let's see:

Spoiler: show

Ok, lemme do some defence before I work through the new posts that happened overnight.

I dont think there is anything weird about giving a null to very very light town read to someone with one post who said they looked into optimal stratgies for this setup. If you are town, this seems a reasonable thing to do and if you are alien, why would you tell anyone you are looking into strat. Thats where my logic was at. It was a null to very very light town. I wouldnt read too much into it.

I talked about "strat" (I own a Strat by the way ). Yet to you I'm a "hard alien." Nah.

My second take that they are null and hoping they post more or get mod killed is also normal to me. It is entirely consistent with a null read where the person had at the time made one post.

Fine.

EoD - I am not so much defending Soneji as saying there were better shots imo. I was kind of shocked they flipped alien, but whatever.

People are saying my EoD was too wifom. I was just responding to Nutellas request to give our input knowing that they were likely to shoot Soneji.

I don't object to this. Mistakes happen.

Consider this. prior to my posts going into EoD, I was almost universally townread. if I am alien and know Soneji is the likely shot with flips on, I do not make these posts. Ever.

Some of you will say "thats wifom again".

Consider this. Would I prefer to be almost universally townread in a setup where its 2KP until 2, and let Soneji die quietly OR make a deflection post and put myself in the mix for day 2 lasering because because can say "you are alien using wifom". Thats the real choice I would have to make as an alien, and thats the choice you need to decide whether I made. The alternative is that I am town, thought Soneji was not the best shot for the day, and pushed my view on the better shot.

Consider this: Your treatment of me has been antithetical to figuring me out. From my perspective, you don't care to figure me out, which means you are bad. It's really that simple. That I got "hard alien" despite talking mechanics and Soneji got "very very light town" for one post looks like you really don't give a damn about my alignment.

My interaction/proposals for Epi still gained some info on the gamestate since Epi and I both are kind of okay with getting shot as long as the other gets shot next day. Strictly speaking this is not a hard difference check but rather makes it unlikely we are both aliens together. Lemme know people's thoughtson that. If you say THAT is also wifom, then basically posting anything is wifom and you have pre-determined I am an alien.

I'm not okay with getting shot as long as you are. I didn't say that. You said that.

I think your team informed you that I would likely be protected and you need nutella to shoot me first to get this annoying asshole Skeletor out of your hair. Then you can die happy knowing you took one for the team.

I still townread carotenoid for finding the issue with the mixed save strat. I townread them slightly independent from that based on their posts.

Hally seems pretty damn town to me.

Okay.

Epi immeadiately locking in a save for Nutella at the start of N1 when we had done math on 3 rng saves is extremely scummy. It just makes it likely for people to waste bunker saves since we cannot use their save in the rng for the results to work out. I will say that hitting an alien in the first day makes the math much more favourable to town since its now 3/13 x 2/12 x 1/11 for us to rng 3 aliens exactly which is 6/1,716 which is 0.35%. We still cant use Epi's save to get this outcome because they self selected. Epi knows this which is why its was extremely scummy to lock in a save before Nutella nominated the savers. People wanting to apply more than 3 saves I think are aliens, since it wastes bunker shots, but maybe they hadnt done the math. The math has been done above for you. There are 13 non Nutella players left. There is one combo of hitting all three aliens back to back. Thats 0.35%. If people still want to push for a night protection scheme that uses any more than 3 saves in Nutella, (such as bottom 3 POE plus one for example), I just think you are really really bad at math. We already have to use 4 since Epi locked in a save.

nutella needs to be unprotected and shot one time and I lose.

There's all the math I need.

One.

I also think doing isos on Soneji post flip to scumhunt/clear people is pointless to bad in a game where aliens have full chat knowing there are flips. Again, another thing that Epi has done. Basically a lot of people are townreading Epi and I cant see it. if its based purely on meta and not on their posts for this game, can people let me know who they are so i can silo their read on epi off from my read on them.

I should be shot because I'm trying to figure out who Soneji's mafia teammates are by...examining Soneji's posts? How is this any different from any other Mafia setup?

Spoiler: show

idk if im convinced by that case. i agree that proto’s liiiiiiight townread of soneji for his first post wasnt deserved but idk that it strikes me as s/s. and dropping soneji to null after some time had passed and soneji hadnt posted again is reasonable given the town lean was very slight to begin with. the stuff right at EoD where he was like “dont shoot soneji shoot epi and if soneji is maf shoot me” is maybe negative against him because it seems almost intentionally wifomy. but it seems silly to go for that when there was really no point and it was more likely to make him look bad than anything. im not sure what he would think hed gain there

I think it's a load of bollocks.

Epignosis – hard alien – it’s a vibe thing, cant explain it.

No effort made whatsoever here. But I am for certain a "hard alien."

Soneji – null to very very light town for having looked into strategies as could have done it for either alignment.

This is qualified so many times over I could write a politician's speech with it.

"very very"

Not one "very" will do. Two are needed. We need to be sure we understand that protocultures' stance on Soneji is not to be taken seriously.

"light town"

Again, we need that adjective in there to ensure that people are clear this isn't one to take to the bank.

"for having looked into strategies"

I looked into strategies. I discussed and debated them. I got no such credit for this. Instead, I'm judged guilty due to "vibes." Soneji had maybe, what, half a post at the time?

"as could have done it for either alignment."

Just in case we aren't clear that protocultures isn't happy with calling Soneji good, we have this additional (and awkward) phrase to further hedge from the stance taken.

This is a teammate, folks.

This is full of so much "horseshit", if anyone who isnt Epi wants me to respond to a particular section of it, please @ me

[protocultures]

I'm at that giant ass proto post on page 28.

I'm going to do two things with this just for fun.

First, I'm going to count how many times "Epi" appears in it.

I pasted it all into Word so I didn't get Topic Review posts or my own username at the top.

If you want to guess, feel free. The number is in the spoiler:

Spoiler: show

19 goddamn instances of "Epi" in a single post judging others according to a "suspect" who has not even had his alignment revealed.

Wild.

The second thing I want to do is look at a few specific items contained therein.

Hally – lock town atm and im okay losing to them if they are an alien. Got to get burned at least once to learn and cant just be paranoid all game because someone said your scum game is amazeballs. Being universally townread when you also subjectively townread them should give you some confidence that the read is correct.

Hally was murdered Night 1.

If Hally is "locktown," why the hell didn't protocultures protect this individual from death?

It's over the top, histrionic praise that means nothing if you don't back it up.

This is horseshit.

Alison – hard town after shoving the paranoid down re meta dive. Im already deep into your pocket, you can stop calling me town now. I might be guilt of the double “L” issue. Sometimes I will forget, sometimes my phone does weird stuff with spelling, but I will try. Alison probing LC is also towny imo.

I don't understand most of this.

I do understand the first two words after the name.

And at this juncture I hope nutella blasts one of these two.

Lon Con – happy they are posting more, but wish they would post even more than they have. Were my number 2 alien due to not participating that much/solving/contributing to help town. Don’t want them in POE as I feel that can develop a read on them if they continue to post. Is open to Epi being an alien and attempted to explain to me why Epi is being townread by the majority of the game for things I think are clear anti wincon for town. Strictly speaking NAI as well, but I want to encourage more engagement with them.

Rej – kinda null on them, they don’t post that much which makes it hard to remember things. Hopefully they post more so I can develop a read.

I want to contrast these two opinions.

Long Con was the #2 alien due to an apparent lack of posts.

Even when LC posts more, it isn't enough.

Rej managed about half the posts LC did, and Rej is granted a "kinda null on them."

Soneji had what, nine posts? Got "very very light town."

Either protoculture's colorwheel is broken or his calculator needs to be given some cement 80085.

Dyslexicon – has stopped memeing and is giving content which I like. No strong opinion yet, but I probably don’t want them in POE for day 2. Unlikely to be aliens with Hally for letting new people know Hally has a scary scum game. Quite like most of their list here http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p618094
Wish they didn’t hard defend Epi for being objectively anti town, but giving them a towny mindset which could be faked. Potential partner with Epi.

You're running out of potential partners for me.

Nanook – seems hard town for NOT wanting saves to be expended except on Nutella. I hard agree with this from a mechanics perspective at least until the number of players reduces a bit. Its simply too hard to expend a save, and try to save a maximum of 4 bunker shots when you are saving into 12 candidates. It can’t be correct. I don’t think an alien ever pushes this agenda because its anti wincon. Also, are you Clem? “Smart townies make dumb reads literally all the time” – yes, but should they be townread for doing it or scumread?

I have always said I'm protecting nutella (unless she asks me not to do that).

Yet I'm only telling people what I'm doing. Nanook is telling other people what they should do and you're cool with that. Okay.

For the record, if I'm an alien, I want all the protections on one target and concentrated so I can pick off the bunkers and make them waste their chances.

But you're not a civilian anyway, so I don't care about your "math."

Probably Common Core math anyway.

I'm skipping the rest. I'm bored with this post. I'll end here:

Epi – thinks I am an alien, still has not given any evidence or logic behind the allegation.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 68#p617568

"Still has not given any evidence or logic behind the allegation" and to PROVE THIS LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

I announced that I was going to watch TV with my wife.

Well now let's see:

Spoiler: show

Ok, lemme do some defence before I work through the new posts that happened overnight.

I dont think there is anything weird about giving a null to very very light town read to someone with one post who said they looked into optimal stratgies for this setup. If you are town, this seems a reasonable thing to do and if you are alien, why would you tell anyone you are looking into strat. Thats where my logic was at. It was a null to very very light town. I wouldnt read too much into it.

I talked about "strat" (I own a Strat by the way ). Yet to you I'm a "hard alien." Nah.

My second take that they are null and hoping they post more or get mod killed is also normal to me. It is entirely consistent with a null read where the person had at the time made one post.

Fine.

EoD - I am not so much defending Soneji as saying there were better shots imo. I was kind of shocked they flipped alien, but whatever.

People are saying my EoD was too wifom. I was just responding to Nutellas request to give our input knowing that they were likely to shoot Soneji.

I don't object to this. Mistakes happen.

Consider this. prior to my posts going into EoD, I was almost universally townread. if I am alien and know Soneji is the likely shot with flips on, I do not make these posts. Ever.

Some of you will say "thats wifom again".

Consider this. Would I prefer to be almost universally townread in a setup where its 2KP until 2, and let Soneji die quietly OR make a deflection post and put myself in the mix for day 2 lasering because because can say "you are alien using wifom". Thats the real choice I would have to make as an alien, and thats the choice you need to decide whether I made. The alternative is that I am town, thought Soneji was not the best shot for the day, and pushed my view on the better shot.

Consider this: Your treatment of me has been antithetical to figuring me out. From my perspective, you don't care to figure me out, which means you are bad. It's really that simple. That I got "hard alien" despite talking mechanics and Soneji got "very very light town" for one post looks like you really don't give a damn about my alignment.

My interaction/proposals for Epi still gained some info on the gamestate since Epi and I both are kind of okay with getting shot as long as the other gets shot next day. Strictly speaking this is not a hard difference check but rather makes it unlikely we are both aliens together. Lemme know people's thoughtson that. If you say THAT is also wifom, then basically posting anything is wifom and you have pre-determined I am an alien.

I'm not okay with getting shot as long as you are. I didn't say that. You said that.

I think your team informed you that I would likely be protected and you need nutella to shoot me first to get this annoying asshole Skeletor out of your hair. Then you can die happy knowing you took one for the team.

I still townread carotenoid for finding the issue with the mixed save strat. I townread them slightly independent from that based on their posts.

Hally seems pretty damn town to me.

Okay.

Epi immeadiately locking in a save for Nutella at the start of N1 when we had done math on 3 rng saves is extremely scummy. It just makes it likely for people to waste bunker saves since we cannot use their save in the rng for the results to work out. I will say that hitting an alien in the first day makes the math much more favourable to town since its now 3/13 x 2/12 x 1/11 for us to rng 3 aliens exactly which is 6/1,716 which is 0.35%. We still cant use Epi's save to get this outcome because they self selected. Epi knows this which is why its was extremely scummy to lock in a save before Nutella nominated the savers. People wanting to apply more than 3 saves I think are aliens, since it wastes bunker shots, but maybe they hadnt done the math. The math has been done above for you. There are 13 non Nutella players left. There is one combo of hitting all three aliens back to back. Thats 0.35%. If people still want to push for a night protection scheme that uses any more than 3 saves in Nutella, (such as bottom 3 POE plus one for example), I just think you are really really bad at math. We already have to use 4 since Epi locked in a save.

nutella needs to be unprotected and shot one time and I lose.

There's all the math I need.

One.

I also think doing isos on Soneji post flip to scumhunt/clear people is pointless to bad in a game where aliens have full chat knowing there are flips. Again, another thing that Epi has done. Basically a lot of people are townreading Epi and I cant see it. if its based purely on meta and not on their posts for this game, can people let me know who they are so i can silo their read on epi off from my read on them.

I should be shot because I'm trying to figure out who Soneji's mafia teammates are by...examining Soneji's posts? How is this any different from any other Mafia setup?

Spoiler: show

idk if im convinced by that case. i agree that proto’s liiiiiiight townread of soneji for his first post wasnt deserved but idk that it strikes me as s/s. and dropping soneji to null after some time had passed and soneji hadnt posted again is reasonable given the town lean was very slight to begin with. the stuff right at EoD where he was like “dont shoot soneji shoot epi and if soneji is maf shoot me” is maybe negative against him because it seems almost intentionally wifomy. but it seems silly to go for that when there was really no point and it was more likely to make him look bad than anything. im not sure what he would think hed gain there

I think it's a load of bollocks.

Epignosis – hard alien – it’s a vibe thing, cant explain it.

No effort made whatsoever here. But I am for certain a "hard alien."

Soneji – null to very very light town for having looked into strategies as could have done it for either alignment.

This is qualified so many times over I could write a politician's speech with it.

"very very"

Not one "very" will do. Two are needed. We need to be sure we understand that protocultures' stance on Soneji is not to be taken seriously.

"light town"

Again, we need that adjective in there to ensure that people are clear this isn't one to take to the bank.

"for having looked into strategies"

I looked into strategies. I discussed and debated them. I got no such credit for this. Instead, I'm judged guilty due to "vibes." Soneji had maybe, what, half a post at the time?

"as could have done it for either alignment."

Just in case we aren't clear that protocultures isn't happy with calling Soneji good, we have this additional (and awkward) phrase to further hedge from the stance taken.

This is a teammate, folks.

This is full of so much "horseshit", if anyone who isnt Epi wants me to respond to a particular section of it, please @ me

[protocultures]

Dont understand. I wanted you to find examples of your allegation against mac and vice versa.

My allegation against MacDougall is that he is an Aussie hypocrite, nothing more.

My comments re "light light town" on Soneji have been discussed already. Do you have a new angle on it?

I'll let you know.

so basically throwing scum with no specific reference in mind. Not one.

This may be within your town meta, but stuff like this is why I scumread you.

I have no idea what you just said to me in that first line.

As for the second, luckily you didn't get the Super Soaker 9000.

When Mac says about you that "After having looked at it again, that stuff is rather meh Tbh a lot of Epi's reads in this game have been him arriving to firm conclusions off pretty random things. Quite a few times he's taken a firm stance on someone and my immediate response was "really guy"? His response post flip was a bit weird too. He's well within his mafia range."

And you say "Something something pot kettle", I expected you to have exmaples of Mac arriving to firm conclusions off pretty random things which maked you go "really?". Or at least one.

By making the comment "Something something pot kettle" with no evidence to support it, I take this as you throwing random scum with no backup, which I interpret as anti town behaviour.

let me know if I am still unclear.

Anybody who knows Mac needs no evidence.

It wasn't an accusation. It was "You do the same shit, bucko. Piss off."

Mac and I are cool.

You wanted to turn it into something.

Oops.

Another deflection. Admits no evidence and random scum throwing. Got it.

[protocultures]

what if i protect myself tonight?

never protect yourself at night.

There is 1 KP, which is unlikely to go onto Nutella.

if you save YOURSELF, you spend 1 bunker shot, with a maximum result of saving your 3 remaining bunkershots.

Staying alive with no bunkershots have no value to town. Your only value to town is in your bunker shots.

There are 10 bunkers remaining for Aliens to shoot into.

You need to correct 1 in 10 times for your save to be +EV. You onyl get a 3 to 1 reward ratio. Its -EV to save yourself.

Multiple this by other bunkers trying to save themselves, its massively beneficial for aliens if all bunkers save themselves in the night. It gets them closer to auto by being able to kill Nutella because bunkers dont have saves anymore.

This is why Nanook is saying please dont save anyone other than Nutella. I feel this argument drops off as we get to fewer and fewer players and not exactly sure when, but at thios game state I am like 99% sure saving anyone except nutella is bad.

You made a huge case during Night 1 to keep Hally from self-protecting.

Every failed kill is a failed kill against the civilian faction.

I want to find this post...here we are:

Epi immeadiately locking in a save for Nutella at the start of N1 when we had done math on 3 rng saves is extremely scummy. It just makes it likely for people to waste bunker saves since we cannot use their save in the rng for the results to work out. I will say that hitting an alien in the first day makes the math much more favourable to town since its now 3/13 x 2/12 x 1/11 for us to rng 3 aliens exactly which is 6/1,716 which is 0.35%. We still cant use Epi's save to get this outcome because they self selected. Epi knows this which is why its was extremely scummy to lock in a save before Nutella nominated the savers. People wanting to apply more than 3 saves I think are aliens, since it wastes bunker shots, but maybe they hadnt done the math. The math has been done above for you. There are 13 non Nutella players left. There is one combo of hitting all three aliens back to back. Thats 0.35%. If people still want to push for a night protection scheme that uses any more than 3 saves in Nutella, (such as bottom 3 POE plus one for example), I just think you are really really bad at math. We already have to use 4 since Epi locked in a save.

Which the fuck is it? Do I save nutella or do I not, professor?

You just told Hally, your biggest "townread" to refrain from refusing to die. Presumably Hally had four protections. By dying, Hally has zero.

Now how many protections are left with Hally dead?

If Hally had self-protected, how many would be left?

You feel like you are taking crazy pills because you refuse to engage with mechanics.

I mathed why its base to save non nutella people with this many players remaning.

Engage with it. Find holes. Discuss them. Change my mind.

Why does trying to save someone RESULT in a save?

When Hally died, there were 13 players (I think - 15 minus Soneji minus Nutella) a save could have gone onto. You dont gain 13 bunkersaves if you land a save. You gain 2.6.

I worked out the EV of trying to save someone who isnt Nutella is -EV.

[protocultures]

I mathed why its BAD to save non nutella people with this many players remaning.

[protocultures]

I mean, if nutella has pre-determined their next day shot, that target could save in the night if they want, but thats asking a lot from Nutella since they lose a whole extra 24 hours of game time to make a read.

I don't understand this.

If Nutella already has a locked in shot for the nexy day phase and is NEVER changing their mind, that person can save into non-nutella people is what I am saying. We dont care about wasting their bunker saves because they are pre-determined to die anyway. I am also saying its a hard ask for Nutella to make.

[protocultures]

After having looked at it again, that stuff is rather meh Tbh a lot of Epi's reads in this game have been him arriving to firm conclusions off pretty random things. Quite a few times he's taken a firm stance on someone and my immediate response was "really guy"? His response post flip was a bit weird too. He's well within his mafia range.

This. This right here.

This is the smoking gun example of Epi arrving at a firm conclusion off pretty random things.

You'll see a smoking gun all right.

Example of a typical no content post

[protocultures]

Let the aliens kill two bunkers tonight if they want to, I honestly do not care. It narrows the POE.

Agree.

Being alive is worth nothing (unless Nutella decides they are NEVER shooting them for the remainder of the game because it reduces POE - a hard ask)

Having bunker saves remaining is worth something.

Trying to conserve bunker saves by saving is going to result in a new loss of bunker saves with this many players remaining.

Finding scum as a bunker is worth nothing.

Showing your work on a scum in a way that convinces Nutella is worth something.

Nanook gets it.

[protocultures]

Idk if that math part made sense with the 6 thing pls ignore me but the main point stands

We used 4 bunker saves already which averages it to 3.6 per bunker.

You need to use 2 bunker saves to even save 2 people.

Assuming you land them perfect perfect, you gain 5.2 bunker saves. Thats if exactly 2 people and 2 people only try to save AND land a save.

In actual case, its worse than this because we now have to use 4 on you on Night 2, so this is actually 3.2 bunker saves per person remaining, resulting in a net gain of 2.2 bunker saves per save.

What is actually much more likely is that we miss buinker saves and lose more bunker saves than we tried to claw back.

This is like gambling in games that are -EV.

We are massively winning. We dont need to gamble.

[protocultures]

Let the aliens kill two bunkers tonight if they want to, I honestly do not care. It narrows the POE.

But

2 successful saves on 2 bunkers with 4 saves each nets 6 more total saves left in the game than if those two bunkers die and we lose 8



I'm not doing more math than that and feel free to tell me why I'm wrong but it doesn't feel right champ, when will you understand that townies' lives other than mine are really quite mechanically valuable in this game

townie lives have no instrinsic value. You can have loads of town alive at the end with no bunker saves left. Aliens win.

Townie alive only has intrinsic value in having bunker saves remaining, UNLESSS you have decided never to shoot them the rest of the game and then their being alive has the benefit of taking them out of POE for laser shots.

[protocultures]

Let the aliens kill two bunkers tonight if they want to, I honestly do not care. It narrows the POE.

But

2 successful saves on 2 bunkers with 4 saves each nets 6 more total saves left in the game than if those two bunkers die and we lose 8



I'm not doing more math than that and feel free to tell me why I'm wrong but it doesn't feel right champ, when will you understand that townies' lives other than mine are really quite mechanically valuable in this game

1. That ONLY applies if exactly two people save exactly the two NKs. Do you uh...see that as likely?

2. I don’t see anyone in this game as particularly valuable beyond their ability to keep you alive and/or be read by you. Likely not going to change my mind on that

agree

There is benefit if people make a convincing case that helps Nutella find scum.

People finding scum without the showing the work is worthless.

[protocultures]

Hey Nanook, who is an alien?

Idk. Maybe Alison. Maybe someone in carrot/TSP/Proto. Maybe someone else, idk. Ask me D3/D4.

whoa whoa whoa

"why me = fry me", but why me?

State some case against me. Lemme see your logic.

[protocultures]

Epi I’m trying to ignore you but you literally just lost a game because you don’t understand mechanics idk why you think you have a better grasp of this than I do

So I'm a shitty player who should be ignored because of one uncharacteristic game during which I was exhausted? Okay dude.

There is nothing at all mechanical about this game. There are no roles giving information. There is no BTSC beyond what I assume the aliens have. There is "Who should nutella shoot" and "whom should I protect?" From my perspective, that's it. Math need not enter into it. Figure out who is bad and go home a winner. I've been doing that for ages.

Cant even tell if this is serious or not.

[protocultures]

Epi I’m trying to ignore you but you literally just lost a game because you don’t understand mechanics idk why you think you have a better grasp of this than I do

So I'm a shitty player who should be ignored because of one uncharacteristic game during which I was exhausted? Okay dude.

There is nothing at all mechanical about this game. There are no roles giving information. There is no BTSC beyond what I assume the aliens have. There is "Who should nutella shoot" and "whom should I protect?" From my perspective, that's it. Math need not enter into it. Figure out who is bad and go home a winner. I've been doing that for ages.

Not at all what I said--you're a very good player with a weakness for mechanics. A weakness you're displaying in this game. Idk what to tell you beyond that this game would be more productive for town if you focused on your strong suit (finding scum) and let the people that are more mechanically inclined (myself, Tony, Proto, for example) figure out the optimal mechanical plan. But instead you insist on shoving your head in the sand and saying what amounts to "FUCK OFF I CAN"T HEAR YOU IM DOING WHAT I WANT" and it's very meh.

You find it meh, I find it scummy AF.

[protocultures]

if he flips town i think we lose

He didn’t but like...this is a weird thing to say

Its really, really, really not

if its really really really not weird, can you explain why?

[protocultures]

if he flips town i think we lose

He didn’t but like...this is a weird thing to say

Its really, really, really not

I mean

You think we lose after one misshot?

That's how I felt emotionally in regards to Rej being town so at that time I just posted itt what was on my mind

This explanation is the type I hate because its pure emotion, and how can other people try and read that?

Can you try and explain your emotion as to why we lose after one missed laser shot?

[protocultures]

I mean it isn’t, you have three people in your POE and I’m locked, not 2/3 chance, so that’s POE plus a read.

I don't have 3 ppl in my poe, Alison and Carotte are never both mafia imo. Due to how Alison played it out wrt Carotte.

Still asking everyone what is WRT?

[protocultures]

@tutuu how/when did Mac get back into your POE

And what’s your read on carrot?

He got OUT of my poe. POE stands for process of elimination. You generally use it to denote scumreads

Again, I posted about Mac before.

I dont remember if I posted about Carotte but I'm just sheeping. I don't need to solve her and put that much energy, I just think there is always 1 maf and 1 town between her and Alison so I'm going with that

I like stuff like this better "there is always 1 maf and 1 town between her and Alison".

Can you explain why you concluded this?

Ideally with quotes/evidence.

[protocultures]

Actually proto is a consensus townread.

I will rand my bunker save between proto, dunya and holstering.

Do what you want since you hate people telling you what to do but please consider reading the math on why its -EV to try and save people with this many players remaining.

If you arent a math person, ask a bunch of people who you townread to give you their views on whether the math looks right or not.

After that, decide if you still want to do something that is -EV in terms of bunker saves.

ideally, I would like to get you on the same game theory boat which I think includes: Alison, Nanook, Tony, LongCon, Carotenoid, and me.

[protocultures]

So, tutuu’s progression is kinda sketching me out here. In chronological order her progression is:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 79#p618579

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 13#p619113

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 38#p619138

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p619394

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 45#p619545

Coming back to this on my laptop later, can’t do it well from phone

Is it sketching you out because theres never any explanation for why?

It sketches me out too and I decided I have to try and take it NAI although I think its normally scummy.

i think you trying to find a baseline is towny.

Do you feel like im trying to pocket you yet?

[protocultures]

Let's say.... protections from @Alison @Dyslexicon @protocultures and @TonyStarkPrime


Since there are only two aliens left that should guarantee I'm okay. @Epignosis and @tutuu, no need to use yours up, thank you.

Order recieved.

You can go to three

Do you still want 3 or do you now want 4?

[TonyStarkPrime]

I mathed why its BAD to save non nutella people with this many players remaning.

And I’ll tell you it’s not (always).

POE people should be using bunkers tonight on “town core”. It’s not just about preserving bunkers, it’s about forcing the aliens to shoot lower POE townies.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Let's say.... protections from @Alison @Dyslexicon @protocultures and @TonyStarkPrime


Since there are only two aliens left that should guarantee I'm okay. @Epignosis and @tutuu, no need to use yours up, thank you.

Order recieved.

You can go to three

Do you still want 3 or do you now want 4?

I thought 3, I thought more, 4 seems just fine.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Hey Nanook, who is an alien?

Idk. Maybe Alison. Maybe someone in carrot/TSP/Proto. Maybe someone else, idk. Ask me D3/D4.

whoa whoa whoa

"why me = fry me", but why me?

State some case against me. Lemme see your logic.

Literally all I can remember of your game is mechanics, arguing with Epi, and TRing me. That’s likely a me issue much more than a you issue but it doesn’t stop me from putting you into my POE until I start trying D4

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I mean it isn’t, you have three people in your POE and I’m locked, not 2/3 chance, so that’s POE plus a read.

I don't have 3 ppl in my poe, Alison and Carotte are never both mafia imo. Due to how Alison played it out wrt Carotte.

Still asking everyone what is WRT?

With regards to

[TonyStarkPrime]

Though it’s close. I’m just advocating bunker use since 2 NKs tonight. Tomorrow you put two on Nutella and leave it.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

So, tutuu’s progression is kinda sketching me out here. In chronological order her progression is:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 79#p618579

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 13#p619113

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 38#p619138

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p619394

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 45#p619545

Coming back to this on my laptop later, can’t do it well from phone

Is it sketching you out because theres never any explanation for why?

It sketches me out too and I decided I have to try and take it NAI although I think its normally scummy.

i think you trying to find a baseline is towny.

Do you feel like im trying to pocket you yet?

Naw I don’t really care about lack of explanation, lots of townies do that (I usually do that), it’s more the Alison progression coupled with what feels like semi-arbitrary reasons for taking people out of then putting them back into her POE.


Yes I do, thanks I hate it

[protocultures]

I mathed why its BAD to save non nutella people with this many players remaning.

And I’ll tell you it’s not (always).

POE people should be using bunkers tonight on “town core”. It’s not just about preserving bunkers, it’s about forcing the aliens to shoot lower POE townies.

So how many bunker saves do you think we should be optimally using tonight? I still tink 0 is best ftr.

Do you think Nutella should request specific people and specific people only to try and save on non-nutella people?

If everyone in POE tries to land a save, dont you think we end up losing more bunker saves than we gain?

Is there really a benefit to protecting towncore unless Nutella decides they are literally never shooting them?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Is there anyone that’s 2/2 on rej/soneji? Besides nutes obviously

[protocultures]

Hey Nanook, who is an alien?

Idk. Maybe Alison. Maybe someone in carrot/TSP/Proto. Maybe someone else, idk. Ask me D3/D4.

whoa whoa whoa

"why me = fry me", but why me?

State some case against me. Lemme see your logic.

Literally all I can remember of your game is mechanics, arguing with Epi, and TRing me. That’s likely a me issue much more than a you issue but it doesn’t stop me from putting you into my POE until I start trying D4

Why dont you townread me for the same reason I townread you.

We are both pushing for same/similar mechanics from town. We both think this is to towns wincon. It would be really easy to push another agenda that isnt so blatantly anti alien wincon if I were an alien.