Pyre Mafia [ENDGAME]

[Long Con]

We're calling it YOLO now?

[Long Con]

Yeet Or Lose. Got it.

[cayvie]

Yeet Or Lose. Got it.

i'm calling it that, at least

[Long Con]

Yeet Or Lose. Got it.

i'm calling it that, at least

I kind of love it.

Can we win together? Just please be honest.

[cayvie]

Yeet Or Lose. Got it.

i'm calling it that, at least

I kind of love it.

Can we win together? Just please be honest.

if you're mafia, i think the answer's no. if you're town, maybe, but not if it's YOLO. if you're the one minding the T's and Q's, then never.

(basically i think i can't win anymore)

[cayvie]

uh by minding the t's and q's i meant controlling Tariq and Celeste, i dont know why i thought Celeste started with a Q for a sec

[moth]

[VOTE: Macdougall] aubergine

[Long Con]

If Joseph is town, then yeeting him could lose us the game directly, in that we're that much closer to YOLO by yeeting any villager, plus losing our most valuable role.

If Joseph is wolf, then... well, first, bronana is likely town, I think. I think that scum-Joseph would want to bolster support rather than green-light his scum partner for us. At this point.

If Joseph is wolf, and we don't yeet him today, then we get another night where he's expected to give us info, and ideally moth, who I trust, will be able to send someone Joseph's info.

Of course, there is the multi-use blocker on the scum team. Maybe it's Joseph. Maybe it's motobot. They are in a triumvirate together. If a blocker has multi-use, then it's not as likely to be someone who has lost a tri-mate to a nightkill recently. Carotenoid was killed last night, but she was the last of her tri. Outed wolf was killed two nights ago, which cut Glory in half for bronana and Lissa. That looks good on them for the multi-block bullshit.

nutella and I lost Sloonei on Night 4, and like I said, my Glory went down to 0.9, and I haven't been able to get it back up due to blocking limiting my Sol accrual two nights in a row. And nutella's role certainly isn't a blocker role, as is well-established.

NANOOK's Glory should be just fine. Lost tutuu Night 1, which hurt, but lost dunya to a yeet, which cut his Hope, not his Glory. NANOOK is a possibility to be the multi-blocker.

moth and cayvie are also both enjoying uncut Glory, but moth's role is confirmed by dunya, and cayvie is probably fooling us all and will win, but hey, I'm just another fool.

If Glory cuts are as impactful and hard to recover from as I think, then the only players who could be multi-blockers are motobot, NANOOK, and Joseph.

If we can yeet the blocker, then we will have a much better chance at winning. What do you think?

[bronana]

idk i think LC seems legit here lol

im thinking we're in mac/dunya w/w world

i guess it makes sense to go [VOTE: dunya] aubergine first tho

the cayvie thing still makes no sense to me at all

(tinfoil theory is that I was blocked and tracked by scumteam but eh)

I think the most plausible explanation is that wolves bought back DrWilgy ability and that cayvie was protected. Their power seem wolfy, especially when we know that Marcher Jovian could know how much stuff we bought

I think it's p likely that they got wilgy's ability back yeah

Which makes cayvie a wolf ig, I wasn't sure what to think of her 3p claim tbh

Or w!dunya blocked you (and w!mac lied)
Or something

I'm not really sure why nutella thinks dunya is a wolf

think she makes sense with mac in this scenario

but if we're comfortable going for mac first im totally down

I'm not really sure why nutella thinks dunya is a wolf

think she makes sense with mac in this scenario

but if we're comfortable going for mac first im totally down

but why is she with mac? you think she's been hard bussing him for several days?

could be yeah

mostly based on all this confusing role stuff tho

but sure [VOTE: mac] aubergine

he has just been. very wolfy in general yeah

fucking garbage eod

um. I don't understand why you would have thought eod was garbage at all.

Is this going to be another thing where someone points out you did something wolfy, then you make a sarcastic quip that actually it's villagy because it is, despite me and five different dead villagers thinking you were, in fact, wolfy?

[bronana]

You are a Civilian Exile. You attain victory by banishing all Mafia Exiles. If at any point the combined voting strength of the Mafia Exiles is greater than the combined voting strength of the Civilian Exiles, the Mafia Exiles attain victory.

again, wincon doesn't mention 3P at all

[Long Con]

[mention]moth[/mention] Hey man, since you don't care, do you mind sharing your stats and Sol? Have you spent anything?

[bronana]

feeling pretty solid about that post eod sequence of jovian posts

why

just felt pure and real

I had the same thought tbh

Who the hell comes into an eod, sees a strong villager was misyeeted, and gets mad about people voting the counterwagon? how did lissa think that was "pure and real" wtf

what kind of wolf does that though.

[nutella]

um. I don't understand why you would have thought eod was garbage at all.

Is this going to be another thing where someone points out you did something wolfy, then you make a sarcastic quip that actually it's villagy because it is, despite me and five different dead villagers thinking you were, in fact, wolfy?

eod was bad. yes I suspected dunya, but by the end I felt strongly that mac should have been the yeet, and it looked clear to me that wolves hopped on the dunya wagon. I also hated that there were votes on moth.

my night action failed last night or I would have buffed you again. you're my clearest town rn and we have largely seemed to agree on mac, so I'd appreciate if we could just work together on that front. if we're wrong about him, I don't blame you scrutinizing me more

LC may have a good point about trying to get the blocker first, probably between nanook and motobot imo

[bronana]

[VOTE: motobot[/vote] aubergine

[nutella]

feeling pretty solid about that post eod sequence of jovian posts

why

just felt pure and real

I had the same thought tbh

Who the hell comes into an eod, sees a strong villager was misyeeted, and gets mad about people voting the counterwagon? how did lissa think that was "pure and real" wtf

what kind of wolf does that though.

i don't know what point you're trying to make?

that I was defending jovian?

and yet you trust lissa who you literally quote having the same reaction I did to them?

[nutella]

I.... honestly think lissa almost has to be a wolf with who's left here

Like I would bet that assuming there are 3 wolves left it's 3 out of mac/lissa/nanook/moto

[bronana]

who says i trust lissa?

[nutella]

plus, again, Lissa being mac's teammate makes sense with how yesterday went on dunya and mac's greenpeek of you and just like.... she fits in a lot of ways imo. she looked really sloppy yesterday i thought

[bronana]

lissa's eod was atrocious

[bronana]

lissa/mac/moto gg

[bronana]

i protect my target's presence/quickness from negative effects that night

i started with enough glory to act, don't really think it is a good idea to claim other stats

This is a bizarrely specific role

is there any evidence at all that there are actions that would negative effect presence or quickness?

[Long Con]

I was hoping there were two wolves left. Is that crazy?

[Long Con]

i protect my target's presence/quickness from negative effects that night

i started with enough glory to act, don't really think it is a good idea to claim other stats

This is a bizarrely specific role

is there any evidence at all that there are actions that would negative effect presence or quickness?

Not for me. Just cayvie and her smashing, but I doubt Lissa can protect from that terrible action.

[bronana]

lissa should claim her stats and how they have changed throughout the course of the game IMO

[bronana]

dudes

wilgy and marcher wagons. lettuce do it.

i went from this on d2 to being peeked now

seems likely that i failed horribly somewhere

[bronana]

look we've all made mistakes, myself included, and i wish i could take some posts back but it is what it is

i want to kill moto/mac/lissa and hold hands and "cowabunga dudes"

who's with me?

[Lissa]

sup

my base stats were
P = 0.8
Q = 0.7
G = 1.1
H = 0.5

d2 i bought +0.2 presence and +0.1 hope
P = 1.0
Q = 0.7
G = 1.1
H = 0.6

n3 i bought +0.3 presence and +0.2 hope
P = 1.3
Q = 0.7
G = 1.1
H = 0.8

after n3 i got +0.1 to all from presumably nutella
P = 1.4
Q = 0.8
G = 1.2
H = 0.9
(note i didn't actually check in between this and base stats so i think some of this could have come from somewhere else technically? but it lines up with what nutella said so.)

after n5 my glory was halved
P = 1.4
Q = 0.8
G = 0.6
H = 0.9

yesterday i bought +0.4 glory
P = 1.4
Q = 0.8
G = 1.0
H = 0.9

and i got anointed yesterday which put me up to
P = 1.7
Q = 1.1
G = 1.2
H = 1.2

i was planning to back someone up but then visor died right before i got enough and that kind of delayed that plan rip

[Lissa]

sorry for my total fuckin mess that was yesterday eod

convinced myself there had to be another wolf tamper/block of some sort and somehow talked myself into dunya making the most sense and couldn't make myself go through with yeeting a seer claim the day after their correct red peek :/

[Lissa]

why the earthly fuck would zack be the check over me in that pool after that

that's a real

[bronana]

Can you make a reads list for me Lissa?

[bronana]

why did you buy hope?

[Lissa]

Can you make a reads list for me Lissa?

still think you're a villager, think long con is just a villager, think nanook prob v

nutella probably a villager but not as strongly i guess

i don't even fucking know what to do with moth anymore

i think cayvie probably is a neutral

so i guess that leaves mac/moto which. makes a lot of sense

i was assuming three more wolves but i guess two and a neut makes sense

if there is a third it might be nutella i guess? that team feels off but i don't remember why

maybe it is moth but i... yeah don't fucking know what to do with him he has played so openly clearly suboptimally how is it real but

[bronana]

trying to find the right way to ask this

how many of those are your personal tracking versus like ... your confirmed stats at that time?

[Lissa]

why did you buy hope?

thought it was a good thing to buy some of since it's cost efficient/very good value relative to the stat boost it provides if i die, especially after marcher flipped when i feel like it would have been fairly reasonable to kill me

[Lissa]

trying to find the right way to ask this

how many of those are your personal tracking versus like ... your confirmed stats at that time?

only confirmed were original, after nutella thing, and after anointing

rest is personal tracking

[MacDougall]

why the earthly fuck would zack be the check over me in that pool after that

that's a real

I explained why

[MacDougall]

Random.org said the mafia was

bronana
DrWilgy
Marcher Jovian
Lissa
motobot

Even random atmospheric noise wants Jovian dead lmao.

2 dead mafia and 2 living players. Fun times.

[MacDougall]

3 living players actually.

[MacDougall]

Can you make a reads list for me Lissa?

so i guess that leaves mac/moto which. makes a lot of sense

i have an obligation as a father to townshield motobot til endgame

MOTOBOT SHALL BE YEETED INTO THE SUN ON THE ACTUAL TWELFTH OF NEVER NERDS COME AND GET IT

If ya wanna yeet motobot, ya gotta yeet macdougall

make mislims forever, scumslips never eeendddd

Doesn't make sense at all fmpov.

[bronana]

I am either a peeked villager or never w/w with joe anyway

that's one slot you don't have to worry about

both of you please solve and be villagy if you are villagers so i can finally put tinfoil to bed and we can solve the game

speaking of bed, thats where i'm going

[Lissa]

I checked bronana because I was asked to check between bronana and lissa and I thought the mafia would expect me to target Lissa. That I was allowed to land makes me feel good about Lissa too. I think this makes nutella a very likely mafia.

no idea how the nutella thing follows here though?

[MacDougall]

I checked bronana because I was asked to check between bronana and lissa and I thought the mafia would expect me to target Lissa. That I was allowed to land makes me feel good about Lissa too. I think this makes nutella a very likely mafia.

no idea how the nutella thing follows here though?

POE, gamestate and being in Carotte's checks.

[Lissa]

motobot doing things with his sol + i guess based on dunya's reaction he seems to be claiming to have acquired a na that way? i have to wonder if is like, coached

coached is not quite the word really, just like

idk half the damn game seemed like they spent ages not paying much attn to mechs and

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Like normally I’d think we have at least one more miskill, this game idk if that’s the case or not

yeah i think it's just sums of P scores of the teams which makes sense and is also misleading. i also think that, likely, the scumteam knows whether it's YOLO or not. or at least they have a good guess.

(ps i think i failed my wincon at this point, so i'm up for talking abt whatever)

Riperino

I’d guess p score compared to q, think there might be edge cases where scum with less p than town can still force a kill of their q is high enough? Idk Epi’s hosting well enough tho it might just be straight p score.

[Lissa]

i protect my target's presence/quickness from negative effects that night

i started with enough glory to act, don't really think it is a good idea to claim other stats

This is a bizarrely specific role

is there any evidence at all that there are actions that would negative effect presence or quickness?

technically tony but that seems ridiculous as the extent of it and i have to imagine a non village one exists

otherwise this would be dumb, seems extremely niche anyway

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I think main worlds I’m considering rn are

Joe + [one of Lissa/bronana] [+ cayvie if there’s a third]

Two of [nutella/long con/moth] [+ cayvie if there’s a third]


Basically if there’s three wolves I think cayvie is almost always one of them, but I’m more inclined to think there’s two wolves.

If Joe is town, bronana and Lissa are significantly more likely to be town as well, based on carot dying over Joe last night

If Joe is mafia, I would assume his partner is in bronana/Lissa. I think claiming a green on his partner is within joe’s range as mafia fwiw.


Tbh I’m kind of leaning towards the joe is town world rn but idk. There’s too many people left I don’t have high confidence reads on, and the gamestate doesn’t really point towards specific players being much more likely over others imo. The biggest thing kind of tilting me towards it being Joe is town world is that if Lissa or bronana is the partner the team dynamics are kinda weird imo

[Lissa]

not really getting anywhere further tonight, going to bed

sorry was pretty fried post semi revealaments, will be more productive tomorrow.

[Long Con]

One factor is, can we allow motobot to get to YOLO, even if he's town? Can we count on him representing the town to Victory in a YOLO?

[cayvie]

i protect my target's presence/quickness from negative effects that night

i started with enough glory to act, don't really think it is a good idea to claim other stats

This is a bizarrely specific role

is there any evidence at all that there are actions that would negative effect presence or quickness?

technically tony but that seems ridiculous as the extent of it and i have to imagine a non village one exists

otherwise this would be dumb, seems extremely niche anyway

does it protect from talisman smashing

asking for a friend

[Long Con]

i protect my target's presence/quickness from negative effects that night

i started with enough glory to act, don't really think it is a good idea to claim other stats

This is a bizarrely specific role

is there any evidence at all that there are actions that would negative effect presence or quickness?

technically tony but that seems ridiculous as the extent of it and i have to imagine a non village one exists

otherwise this would be dumb, seems extremely niche anyway

does it protect from talisman smashing

asking for a friend

Do you need to smash talismans to win?

Can you target the same poor player twice?