Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Game Over

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Given Nooks penchant for absence, and yours for rallying the town, it still seems...less than ideal for his position if he's wolf.


Or do you disagree?

Perhaps. It's something that should be considered, and I will. The entire question becomes significantly more wifom as long as Nanook's Day 4 looks the way that it looks right now -- I would imagine he'll have more to say eventually. Rondo kind of got away with similar let town consume itself with silent paranoia behavior at the end of Halvosen Ridge.

You can imagine that if you want. My poe is you

If I get a second person I'd make it wilgy, but I doubt I have that luxury

Why do you doubt?

I think its quite likely I die today

[DrWilgy]

@DrWilgy I hope your head feels better dude.

I think it's side effect of me running out of painkillers. I'm still out of it tbh.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Gonna go for a deep dive into Sabi now.

How often do your deep dives sway your opinion?

In general

That depends upon what you mean by "sway". If you mean how often do they make a meaningful impact on my opinion, then they do so very consistently -- even if just to change my level of confidence on an existing read. If you mean how often do they change the base read (i.e. from town to mafia or from mafia to town), then less consistently. It does happen sometimes, and often enough to make it a worthy endeavor -- but I wouldn't call it super "frequent".

[DrWilgy]

So in my skim I've found that I've been added to PoE.

Falcon I understand. I read this as a tinfoil and his theory (while generally too big brain for me I'd say in meta) contradicts in the fact that if I am Mafia I would've 100% bussed sparkles had my goal laid in some awareness of how out of it I'd be post op.

Sabi I understand. Sabi's always left me open as an option, not necessarily believing the d1 effort to be a town spew.

JJJ, I find your addition of me to the PoE concerning. When comparing the analysis you provided of me to Falcon, what I saw in your Falcon review was that you had to look at much granular information to find town arguments and that there were few arguments for finding me in scum range. Why do I feel that there is a contradiction here as you add me to PoE and not Falcon?

Nook, you are a wombat.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, when did you decide Sabi is a town read?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, when did you decide Sabi is a town read?

D1 iirc

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JJJ, I find your addition of me to the PoE concerning. When comparing the analysis you provided of me to Falcon, what I saw in your Falcon review was that you had to look at much granular information to find town arguments and that there were few arguments for finding me in scum range. Why do I feel that there is a contradiction here as you add me to PoE and not Falcon?

The POE can go two deep, so it's someone. At face value, falcon has struck me as deliberately engaged and dug into the hunt, especially today. Perhaps in that way you're a victim of your time away, but that's still the state of the game right now. I have seen the "start really strong and then fall off the face of the Earth" mafia profile many times (a key example was Sonny in the PerC crossover).The point is: if it isn't Nanook, then someone who looks town is mafia. GTH, you're more fitting to the general profile than falcon is. I think you're both more likely candidates than Sabiplz. Keep doing your thing and I'll see how I feel.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What are your reads Nanook?

Sabi falcon esooa Jay town

Needs one more, probably wilgy

I ask, Nanook, because this is the first time it's made explicit (if I am not missing a post). It was Day 2. You'd suggested that Sabi's self-meta, i.e. linking that playdip game, was the motivation for your town read. Was that not evident until after Sparkles' flip? You'd stuck generally to the whole "JJJ/Sabi teamed" thing prior.

[Sabiplz]

Reviewing Sabiplz

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Also because Alison rvs is very awkward and stiff compared to other aussie visor.

The first immediate difference I noticed from Sabi in this game from their previous here (the States-themed mountainous double-chopper). I thought they were slower in that other game about getting into a proper "hunting" mindset, whereas in this one they were already giving Alison grief seven posts in. Reiterated here

It's a small meta note by the standards of this gamestate.

Spoiler: show

I'm bored and gay.

Wilgz might be town. Idk. He seems too engaged in the game when every time I played with him (3 other times) he wasn't. He's not fluff posting as much.

Nook I'd weird and he usually reads me well so his sr on me makes no sense.

Falcon seems engaged I guess.

Mamot no read on.

Jjj no read on but I like his solving my slot. I'm biased.

Link

Volume tells are boring and easily fake able. I only tr Falcon last game when he was posting a lot of fluff because I had tmi.

Falcon needs game related content and shouldn't be tr till he does.

Volume tells are fake able.

I'm not hyperposting or top posting. I'm confirmed scum.

That's how yall sounds judging both Falcon and Wilgz based off posting numbers

I'm not hyperposting or top posting. I'm confirmed scum.

That's how yall sounds judging both Falcon and Wilgz based off posting numbers

Alright, so do tell me Sabi, what have I done, outside of numbers that would incline you to a town or wolf read?

Your distrust is a good thing, I think.

Null at the moment.

I think if you're scum yiu would be hyperposting because when you slank as town you get put into poe. To avoid that you are trying to appear as towny as possible.

I think if you're town you are tired of everyone poe-ing you and you just are excited to play a game with your pals jjj marmot.and Falcon.

I just need more stuff from you

I'm not hyperposting or top posting. I'm confirmed scum.

That's how yall sounds judging both Falcon and Wilgz based off posting numbers

I've played with them for years. I've only played one (maybe two) games with you tbf

Fair. I just think giving townreads based off volume on D1 tends to be something mafia does because they want to look like they are solving the game and trying to justify their tmi with shallow tr.

I rather you explain what posts of Falcon and Wilgz is giving you towny pings

Nothing Alison has done since her pop in has given me towny pings.

She's still awkward and stiff.

Anyway I have a migraine so I'm going to be in and out today.

Sabi's early game content was pretty thick with solving material. I threw a number of examples into a porridge here. I can temper this by clarifying that not all of these are explicitly reads; indeed, Sabi dedicated some effort to diminishing town reads on falcon and Wilgy. There can be theoretical mafia value in that, as it can serve to keep the POE nice and open. While the agenda is available for interpretation, it's not one that I feel. To me this looks like someone that wants to make their mark on the game and has real perspectives about how to do so. It's okay to be cautious.

Spoiler: show

You read all these pages and I'm the only one you have any semblance of a read on? Well go ahead then, proceed at your own pace, I'm sure you'll come up with something.

I have been giving nuance reads on all the active slots so far. I can see both their towny and scummy pov.

Wilgz I just have doubts on because he has slanked 3/3 games I had with him as town so him being super active is giving me doubts because I think he's doing this to avoid being poed.

Falcon hasn't given any good enough amount of game content and all his tr he has received has made me more sus of the low bar he has.

I misread marmot our only game together so I rather wait till I see more from him.

Jjj solving has been noticed but I can see maf or town him doing this to explain away tmi. I have creeped and read his past games because he's #famous.

Nook hasn't done anything towny or necessarily scummy yet minus his terrible read on me. He's one of the few people with an accurate read on me. I need more from him before I judge his slot.

Anything else?

These reads certainly waffle about. It's better that Sabi made it clear that was the intention in the first sentence. I'll have to see how these develop to determine whether it's a problem.

Spoiler: show

I'm going to explain my jjj read.

His solve on my slot is based off the fact that he thought mafia me last game I was not trying to solve with my D1 fluff.

This is an incorrect read because I was pushing on Mac and giving the same style reads as right now.

So yea I feel like he could explain away his tmi in me with an incorrect read in me.

I only have had 4 wolf Rands and have played each one differently so like I don't have a wolf range yet.

This is a decent start. They interpreted their own play in the previous game differently to me, and accordingly they were wary of my initial town read. I'm not sure it's typical of mafia, especially in their first game against me, to treat an erroneous town read of mine like this (instead they probably just say "alright, sick" and take it). There's visible paranoia at play, and that's okay.

Spoiler: show

You are pretty tame this game.

Hmm a little too reserved and timid

This was directed at lucy. It strikes me as important, because Sabi ended up being lucy's staunchest defender. This opening interaction suggests some measure of suspicion. What that means to me I will clarify as I continue.

Spoiler: show

As someone who has played a lot of games with Lucy recently. She makes herself obvious by D2. Just patience. If she doesn't by D2 we yeet her to the sun.

I don't get why lucy is getting this pressure when Nook plays the same style and doesn't do anything AI till later in the game.

I just think yall think of her as lhf

That posture moved not long after. Sabi had given themselves the opportunity to participate in the anti-lucy climate with the previous post, but then opted against that here (and became increasingly adamant about it through Day 2). That would be an awkward pivot for mafia when faking a read on town. This is a small point, at least so far.

Spoiler: show

"she's playing as null as possible"

"she isn't giving us anything AI"

"she's mafia"

None of this is making sense.

Alison you moved from one lhf (Falcon) to Lucy. This isn't helping me not sr you.

@Sabiplz can you please elaborate on the Alison vote? I want into your head again.

Basically nothing towny from her. She moved from one lhf (Falcon) to another (lucy). Her reasoning to push her is weak and for someone that wants to win, she has no care that her policy pushing is going to force us into limlo due to miselims. It's anti town.


None of her pushes and reads have been pro town. It's all been centered around Alison.

Perhaps the alternate interpretation would be TMI, particularly with posts like these (dismissing both falcon and lucy as "LHF") as a justification for suspecting Alison.

Spoiler: show

I'm kinda meh on sparkles. It feels too easy. I have zero meta on her so I will sheep yall.

Wait I'm sticking on Alison for now.

Idk

Esooa also hasn't impressed me but I guess irl obligations?

Falcon is null.

Wilgz sustaining the posting for two days in a row is interesting. Slightest of slightest town leans for now.

Jjj is null. I want charts and graphs.

Marmot may have partner equity with Alison idk. He isn't feeling towny. But I also suck at reading him so idk.

Nook exists.

Visor exists.

Am I missing anyone?

Here's another reads list to follow the development from those before it. The reads are moving, gradually. Esooa and Wilgy seem to have clearer viewpoints here, and perhaps Marmot too.

Spoiler: show

I wish we could vote out Mac for having an ungodly eod time.

Word

Spoiler: show

@MissSparkles to save everyone a giant wallpost of quotes:

whats your take on me? tbh i dont know why i quoted this so rather then make the effort of backspacing ill ask u a questionn.

I currently didn't have a solid opinion with your early start. I have heard before this game that you were coming out of retirement and wanted games so I guess the rust played a part with the awkwardness.

I kinda did share a kinship over playing with a lot of emotions.

I do like your posts since you came back the game. Feels a bit pockety but whatever. I'm easy.

×××

Do you feel the same way about Alison? I felt ALISON EXAGGERATED IN RESPONSE HERE AND CAME OFF QUITE DEFENSIVE.

Yes but also that's NAI for Alison. She is very policy heavy in terms how she plays. Not my play style but it's hers.

×××

Do you also consider me LHF? So yea this is why im mindmelding and liking your takes, im calling you town on mindmeld.

Idk I haven't played with you but I know others have said you were good and tend to do a lot as a player. You don't have arep of being a slank so I guess I don't view you as a lhf

This is a bit hard to follow, but it's a dialogue with Sparkles. A prevailing view, and one that I have shared, is that Sparkles tried to pocket Sabi on Day 1. Sabi themself was aware of this possibility and voiced that accordingly, albeit alongside a gentle positive reception. Sparkles going for those "mindmelds" looks really unteamed.

Dumb read alert: I think teammates are less likely to communicate in this form, without quotes. It degrades the distance value they'd otherwise be pursuing.

At the end of Day 1, Sabi left their vote on Alison (alongside Sparkles). It was technically a "counterwagon" comprised of two. It'd be a bit bizarre for both mafia to do that on a wagon that cannot overcome the Sparkles wagon, as lucy would have at one point or outed wolf later.

Spoiler: show

Alison not dying.

Alison wolf.

Alison vote.

Alison tried to force lucy to be a cw to sparkles.

Alison weird comments in eod.

The math isn't matching.

Alison once again looks scummy.

I rather flip Alison today and if she flips v then policy lucy tomorrow but I doubt it.

I'm hungover and haven't slept so I will explain later.

Another point against Alison btw is I think she was very resistant to accepting Lucy's meta stuff when backed by like nanook or someone

That's probably an angle where wolf Alison is pushing things a bit more unreasonably than she i ought to be

Not sold on it though obviously

Also the thing where "she has a poe of two so it's towny" isn't really valid. Even if a wolf needs to push more people than that to win they don't have to today and Alison knows that

Also Lucy's vote reasoning last day phase was SUS imo

Esooa mindmeld ing with me.

Join me and Nook on alison.

Alison tried to force lucy to be a cw to sparkles.

Alison weird comments in eod.

The math isn't matching.

Do you think lucy is town?

I don't think she's scum.

What has she done to make you think she isn't scum?

Because right now she is caring more about her ego than winning this game as scum. She's not the kind of person to abandon her wincon if she's the last scum member. She cares more about teaching you a lesson.

Lettuce tunnel, spec chat.

I say that facetiously, because these posts read to me like people tunneling someone from an unspoiled spec chat. That doesn't imply necessarily that Sabi isn't spoiled, but the vibe made me chuckle. More importantly, this is thematic in Sabi's play. In their lucy defense as well as their aggression against Alison and Esooa, they were insistent, consistent, and persistent. They invested in those motions. From the perspective of "mafia agenda", I'm not sure I see why that's necessary on Day 2 when things are kind of snoozing toward a lucy mischop -- especially if Alison is going to be a night kill. That's all rather incongruent and reflects nicely on Sabi.

Spoiler: show

Nook eod response defending lucy kinda felt genuine.

Esooa I don't even know anymore.

Falcon has dropped hard.

Wilgz also dropped hard.

Jjj is fine.

Marmot is also fine.

Initial Day 3 reads. Maybe they're better called "observations" than reads. They're rather generic and don't add a lot to the solving aura Sabi had previously established. Expanded a bit in a dialogue with falcon

Spoiler: show

Whow would you consider not LHF at this point?

I would consider falcon and Wilgy in that category too, the people I've gathered you are pushing. But so I can get a clarification, who do you think is the wolf atp?

You and jjj.

I don't think Falcon is lhf today.

I have no idea who is maf. Gut/tinfoil is telling me there's a deep wolf in either you or jjj

What are your thoughts on Esooa?

Alison lite.

I don't mind yeeting her since she's being weird and the way marmot and jjj brought up how she handled sparkles was eyebrow raising

Yeah, I'm also not a fan of the way she handled Sparks...or any of her scum reads really. There's lots of hedging and pivot points in her posts, and several examples of unsolicited overexplanations.



OK, so who is in your absolutely not voting list for this RD?

Uhhhh you, marmot and jjj.

Maybe Wilgz (this vote is just a placeholder for now but I would like him to post this game day)

Jk voting for Esooa. No more omgus Wilgz.

Esooa I rather yeet than Nook and j3

Sabi spent a chunk of Day 3 vaguely exploring some paranoia and gradually arriving at a view of the game that was reasonably similar to mine. I think these progressions are fine.

In the interest of not making this post any longer, I'm gonna truncate this here.

There are little things I can nitpick if I want to. I don't really want to. Generally, this review supports my previous perspective: that Sabi looks town. There is a meta argument and a general solving argument that I think is more easily made in their favor than against it (as well as an argument for association with Sparkles). I'd still like to take a quick look at their other sites to judge the value of the volume tell. I couldn't find them right away on MU (is it Kutiplz or something similar?).

Kuti plz

The alts are all turbo alts

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

What are your reads Nanook?

Sabi falcon esooa Jay town

Needs one more, probably wilgy

I ask, Nanook, because this is the first time it's made explicit (if I am not missing a post). It was Day 2. You'd suggested that Sabi's self-meta, i.e. linking that playdip game, was the motivation for your town read. Was that not evident until after Sparkles' flip? You'd stuck generally to the whole "JJJ/Sabi teamed" thing prior.

The sabi part of that read was not a real read lol

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I don't remember if I came to the TR d1 or d2, if I didn't say it until d2 it was probably d2

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Kuti plz

The alts are all turbo alts

I'm not seeing it for some reason. Might be easier if you tell me an MU game you played in.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Kuti plz

The alts are all turbo alts

I'm not seeing it for some reason. Might be easier if you tell me an MU game you played in.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... e-Season-2

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Thank you

[Sabiplz]

That was not a good game because I had meltdown. That was the same time I was playing the wolf rand game. Bad mental health week

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

It may not be a representative sample but its an easy way for him to find your other games

[Sabiplz]

Background info @JaggedJimmyJay

Nook was an informed spec in that playdip game.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm looking at Sabi in the mountainous 15er with itas game (mafia-aligned), and at least one consistent theme emerges with their mafia game here (with Achromatic) that is distinct from this current game. It took them a little time to start playing with respect to giving reads on other people instead of merely responding to whatever material was in front of them (in that case, early suspicion). Even an early reads list from that game was, by nature of its tiers, ambiguous. The stances are unclear or overtly null. I wouldn't say that's been a theme for them in this game.

Also in that game they were offed on Day 1 with 76 posts to their name, and that game appeared to be a bit faster paced than this one on a per-day basis. So they were slightly less active.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This was also a nice way to con me into making a playdiplo account.

[Sabiplz]

Nook can now force you to play on there with him

[JaggedJimmyJay]

In terms of raw activity level, Sabi was definitely less in the playdiplo game. 101 posts over six cycles (16.8 per) isn't much. It does look like a lower activity game in general, so I am not sure how much to take from that contextually. 18 players, just under 3,000 posts, in 6+ days strikes me as a slow game relatively speaking. Regardless, Sabi the mafioso was happy to take part in that slowness. This game has been moderately slow by Syndicate standards, and Sabi leads it in activity level by a decent margin.

[Sabiplz]

BTW linking iso in MU doesn't work

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Nook can now force you to play on there with him

I'm afraid I will be banning myself from Mafia after this game until I have proposed my dissertation.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Then again, I am now within 1,000 posts of Epignosis for the all-time forum lead and the world's silliest record, so perhaps I will have to force the issue.

[Sabiplz]

Nook can now force you to play on there with him

I'm afraid I will be banning myself from Mafia after this game until I have proposed my dissertation.

When's that

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Probably November or early December

[JaggedJimmyJay]

There's one more player for me to give a thorough review, and that's Nanook. I'll be doing that later this evening. I might also town case myself and hope that town listens to me, because if we creep toward the American night with me leading the poll, then the morning deadline might just assure that I end up dead and this game drags more ass into a potentially difficult final 3. That doesn't need to occur.

[Sabiplz]

Voting Nook. Sry if wrong

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Review me daddy

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

And youre definitely not dying lol, sabi's been telegraphing a vote on me

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Wow that was good timing. Nice.

[Sabiplz]

Nook it's based off poe.

If we are wrong I hope I'm dead because I won't be here Tuesday due to traveling back home to Chicago

[DrWilgy]

I'm just hung on the thought, is Nook playing to a Mafia wincon?

I suppose so? Maybe he was just locked into this line after day 1. This line ultimately is NAI.

[DrWilgy]

I have obtained more painkillers so we'll see if I'm in a state of being able to critically think in a few hours.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Nook it's based off poe.

If we are wrong I hope I'm dead because I won't be here Tuesday due to traveling back home to Chicago

Oh I'm not arguing against it lol, I dont care. I just thought the timing of my cross post was amusing

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I'm just hung on the thought, is Nook playing to a Mafia wincon?

I suppose so? Maybe he was just locked into this line after day 1. This line ultimately is NAI.

I dont think I have been, but

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have more going on tonight than I expected, and I am not certain I'll be able to review as thoroughly as I would have liked. I want to ensure I get a vote on the board.

[VOTE: Nanook] aubergine

It'd take a pretty significant overhaul of my view of the game to bring my vote somewhere else at this point; I think the town cases for every other player are just more compelling. And given the present poll, this is the only vote anyway. I don't know if we'll be able to have much dialogue before the deadline given the unusual Aussie schedule. I will try to be around.

[Sabiplz]

I hope this is right

[DrWilgy]

Has it been made known what happens in the advent of a tie?

@MacDougall

[Sabiplz]

Also I hate Mac for the eod time

[DrWilgy]

I hope this is right

idk if it was the Esooa flip, but I'm now filled with doubt.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If anyone has final questions or anything else, they should tag me. I will do my best to reply before I go to sleep, or maybe even in the morning if it ends up being practical. I still may be able to hang around later, but we'll have to see.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't claim total confidence that Nanook is the last mafioso. I think he's the most likely to be the last mafioso, and that will have to suffice. I don't feel the need to "finagle" a case to make sense of him being mafia in the same way that I do for others. If you think of it like a Sloonei trustfall, his entry would be the weakest -- and I think refuting the mafia side for him requires frivolous wifom that means little to me. Apart from that, my most important legacy would be that Sabi is my biggest town read overall. I've viewed them through numerous different lenses and they all trend in the same direction: in their favor.

[MacDougall]

in the event of a tie I will ask my 5 year old who to kill

[Sabiplz]

in the event of a tie I will ask my 5 year old who to kill

Oh

[falcon45ca]

I'm fine w/ Nook

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Its fine

Kill Jay tomorrow, glgl

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I mean don't actually listen to my legacy probably, but that's what it is

[falcon45ca]

I mean don't actually listen to my legacy probably, but that's what it is

Have you got anything for us outside of Jay?


Thoughts on Wilgy, Sabi, myself?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I mean don't actually listen to my legacy probably, but that's what it is

Have you got anything for us outside of Jay?


Thoughts on Wilgy, Sabi, myself?

Probably town, probably town, probably town

Tomorrow is f3 you only get one person to kill lol