The Syndicate

I'm so riled up I just used "your" instead of "you're", if that's not a townfirm I dunno what is.

You're both overwhelming me with this two sided everything about me is hypocritical and bad narrative. Just stop.

You are not letting a point of mine go through. Fine. It's your prerogative as my adversaries but it is unproductive and I don't want to engage either of you anymore. Look at your other two supposed suspects. Please. It is affecting my mood now.

I put a potential town power role at a 50% risk of getting lynched even though I believed the other person was scum. That should confirm me Town.

They tried to give that potential town role a 100% chance of survival if they were honest. They're fucking scum.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:58 pm You're both overwhelming me with this two sided everything about me is hypocritical and bad narrative. Just stop.

You are not letting a point of mine go through. Fine. It's your prerogative as my adversaries but it is unproductive and I don't want to engage either of you anymore. Look at your other two supposed suspects. Please. It is affecting my mood now.

I'm interacting with you 'cause you're here man. I'll interact with the other two when they show up.

I want to win this, and I assure you I'm Town.

Give it a rest. The other players have enough of our cases on each other to last a lifetime. I'm not gonna change my mind about you both now. If I am bad I must have a teammate. Who is it?

It's between Llama and Mongoose. I'm tempted to say Mongoose with how you put her in the town confirmed pile with Juliets. With only needing one mislynch and with the thread turning mostly on me and Sloonei (see Luna's reaction) I don't think you'd need to keep distance with her rather go for it.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:59 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:58 pm You're both overwhelming me with this two sided everything about me is hypocritical and bad narrative. Just stop.

You are not letting a point of mine go through. Fine. It's your prerogative as my adversaries but it is unproductive and I don't want to engage either of you anymore. Look at your other two supposed suspects. Please. It is affecting my mood now.

I'm interacting with you 'cause you're here man. I'll interact with the other two when they show up.

I want to win this, and I assure you I'm Town.

What is the point. I am convinced you aren't. I have nothing to say about anyone else. The conversation is going to go around in endless circles. You two are overwhelming me. I am also on a phone. I can't reasonably handle this.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:58 pm You're both overwhelming me with this two sided everything about me is hypocritical and bad narrative. Just stop.

You are not letting a point of mine go through. Fine. It's your prerogative as my adversaries but it is unproductive and I don't want to engage either of you anymore. Look at your other two supposed suspects. Please. It is affecting my mood now.

I intend to. I would ask that you do the same. That is my main point right now. You look bad because you don't seem interested. To quote a wise man: you are "never once admitting even the potential that" we are town. That looks bad at mylo.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:59 pm Give it a rest. The other players have enough of our cases on each other to last a lifetime. I'm not gonna change my mind about you both now. If I am bad I must have a teammate. Who is it?

llama or mongoose. I dunno which one yet. I'll figure that out later.

My mind is made up. Shit happens. You won't convince me otherwise. Work around it. I am locked in here.

I think you guys have lost. Solid effort though.

I can see how this is gonna go down. I called it days ago. It's Tree Mafia.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:05 pm My mind is made up.

This is why I don't believe you.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:09 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:05 pm My mind is made up.

This is why I don't believe you.

That's a good point, especially after Community Mafia and that fiasco.

Yeah because you Nova have been sooooo cynical. Lol fuck up.

Nova made up a bs read of me on page fucking one and not once has he doubted it. I mean get real. Civilians don't do that. Fuck I wish dunya was still here.

This isn't the real Sloonei man. He'd have lined up GTH by now and wouldn't be such a basic bitch.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:13 pm Yeah because you Nova have been sooooo cynical. Lol fuck up.

I mean outside of my tunnel on you, I've been pretty active on other fronts, fluctuating and engaging trying to get to the bottom of things.

But sure, whatever floats your boat.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:14 pm Nova made up a bs read of me on page fucking one and not once has he doubted it. I mean get real. Civilians don't do that. Fuck I wish dunya was still here.

You shouldn't have killed her then

I have already finished the level I am just waiting for the rest to catch up. Maybe I didn't get enough points on the way to clear the stage. Who knows.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:16 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:14 pm Nova made up a bs read of me on page fucking one and not once has he doubted it. I mean get real. Civilians don't do that. Fuck I wish dunya was still here.

You shouldn't have killed her then

Friendly reminder Dunya was town reading me and wanted your blood.

No stahp. Fucking stahp.

Wait til I get back to my laptop. I am going to utterly eviscerate you both.

You need to be scared. It will be the most brutal deconstruction ever witnessed.

Mac fucking out.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:16 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:16 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:14 pm Nova made up a bs read of me on page fucking one and not once has he doubted it. I mean get real. Civilians don't do that. Fuck I wish dunya was still here.

You shouldn't have killed her then

Friendly reminder Dunya was town reading me and wanted your blood.

Friendly reminder dunya was also strongly town reading me.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:16 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:16 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:14 pm Nova made up a bs read of me on page fucking one and not once has he doubted it. I mean get real. Civilians don't do that. Fuck I wish dunya was still here.

You shouldn't have killed her then

Friendly reminder Dunya was town reading me and wanted your blood.

Friendly reminder she wasn't anymore during that night phase.

Llama was good from the moment he jumped in, but I always note that it's easier for subs to "look good" regardless of alignment because they have the advantage of being able to read at least parts of the game before getting a role. But I liked llama's entry nonetheless and he felt like a strong voice in a sea of confusion. Time to actually take a critical look at him, I guess.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:57 pm Okay, I read day zero and I want to post some thoughts before I forget them, and then move on to reading Day 1:
ColinIsCool - Nothing of substance. I don't love the aloofness.
dunya - Seems supatown to me. Good, aggressive behavior trying to smoke out baddies. I like.
juliets - The exchange with Mac where he demands she throw out reads and she refuses is interesting. Could go a number of ways, but I'm inclined to read it civ on civ.
Lunalee - Sucking up a little to Dunya, but then again, I can see why.
MacDougall - See juliets.
Mongoose - Her tone seems a little different than what I'm used to. Bears watching.
novaselinenever - I was pinged by her post expressing frustration over not having won in a while. Could be the result of being given a baddie role and feeling outnumbered.
Sloonei - Active posting, good hunting. Leaning town.

After catching up on the state of things he gave us some reads. He's critical of colin and nova, with unspecified shade in the direction(s) of Mac and juliets as well.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:30 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:19 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:57 pm novaselinenever - I was pinged by her post expressing frustration over not having won in a while. Could be the result of being given a baddie role and feeling outnumbered.

ftr: nova's a dude, and he just won another game as scum like 15 minutes before this one started.

Don't tell me what to do.

Okay, I'm mostly caught up. I do think Colin looks terrible after Day 1. Wishy washy, not hunting, no reads, votes for no lynch (along with Mongoose) which is always a bad vote, in my view. HOWEVER there's this:

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:01 pm Ew, per Sloonei's post, Colin really doesn't look good.

I don't like this. I don't know why, but it immediately stuck out to me. It was her first post in a while, and it adds nothing of value, just piggybacks on Sloonei. Then, look what happens.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:38 am

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:50 am I got a lot more work rolled into my job today and I am going to be a wee bit occupied. (Also I’m not getting a raise if you were curious. )

But I will do my best to reassess the thread and get better reads before EOD. I see many of you now believe I’m just regular dumbass Colin so that’s a relief.

I would feel really bad mis-lynching Colin. Again.

Quite a turnaround in a short amount of time. Colin looks really bad, but oh no let's not lynch him. DO NOT WANT.

Also, I'm pretty sure Mac's gay.

This post starts to imply suspicion of Colin and then pivots to Luna without really dismissing the Colin suspicion. Throwing shade at two birds with one stone, perhaps.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:51 am

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:30 am

thellama73 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:57 pm Okay, I read day zero and I want to post some thoughts before I forget them, and then move on to reading Day 1:
ColinIsCool - Nothing of substance. I don't love the aloofness.
dunya - Seems supatown to me. Good, aggressive behavior trying to smoke out baddies. I like.
juliets - The exchange with Mac where he demands she throw out reads and she refuses is interesting. Could go a number of ways, but I'm inclined to read it civ on civ.
Lunalee - Sucking up a little to Dunya, but then again, I can see why.
MacDougall - See juliets.
Mongoose - Her tone seems a little different than what I'm used to. Bears watching.
novaselinenever - I was pinged by her post expressing frustration over not having won in a while. Could be the result of being given a baddie role and feeling outnumbered.
Sloonei - Active posting, good hunting. Leaning town.

I'm really interested in your reads llama especially the Mongoose read. The reason I'm reading her as good is she had the chunk of time where she didn't show up to the game at all. It's hard for me to believe she forgot about the game AND btsc. Otherwise she seems like her normal self to me, slow to condemn and very, very busy. I'll monitor your read on her though carefully. (For those who don't know Mongoose and llama know each other well and for many, many years. Come to Discord sometime and you too can know more about your fellow players!).

I don't like to play the "we know each other well" card at all. I don't want anyone thinking I have a superior abilty to read someone based on a personal relationship. I am not Ika and Silverwolf. That said, I thought her tone seemed weird for all of Day 0. In Day 1, she started out on the defensive, which I always think is a bad look, but has since settled in to what I consider to be her usual playstyle. Right now, I would say my read on her is fairly neutral leaning very slightly in the direction of bad. I think the two baddies will be found among Colin, Mongoose, Nova, and Luna. Mac has me feeling really confident he's a civ. Way to pile on that mass, Mac.

I go into this exercise with an inescapable thought in the back of my mind Mongoose and llama happened to be bad together in this game. This post doesn't ease my paranoia on that front. The whole thing reads like throat-clearing, and this bulky, hesitant paragraph comes to the conclusion of "fairly neutral leaning very slightly in the direction of bad." Adverbs, am I right Epi?

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:05 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:00 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:58 am

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:23 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:00 pm i'm sorry, i can't say "i'm not voting for so-and-so" because i enjoy playing with them as much as i wanted to in the beginning. this game is over after 2 mislynches and i don't want to hurt my team.

i do genuinely love playing with you, mongoose. and i feel bad i'm voting for you for this reason.

RING A LING A TING A LING A RING A TING A LING

(That’s an alarm bell going off in my head, given what I’m hearing from dunya right now.)

Grasping at straws.

I don’t understand. What do you think I’m saying?

I think it's a weak attempt to play offense with no real evidence or case making as a way of trying to defend yourself.

Shootin' down confirmed town Colin's attempts to do things.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:06 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:53 am Ok thanks llama that's very helpful. Can you be more specific on what you are seeing in nova that causes you to call him bad? If you have done that and I missed it, my apologies.

Not a lot concrete. I found the initial "tired of losing" comment suspicious. Others have gone on to explain that away, but I don't know that I'm convinced. I don't like Nova's case on Mac. Very unconvincing to me. Call it a gut read if you like.

Okay.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:32 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:13 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:06 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:53 am Ok thanks llama that's very helpful. Can you be more specific on what you are seeing in nova that causes you to call him bad? If you have done that and I missed it, my apologies.

Not a lot concrete. I found the initial "tired of losing" comment suspicious. Others have gone on to explain that away, but I don't know that I'm convinced. I don't like Nova's case on Mac. Very unconvincing to me. Call it a gut read if you like.

What is suspicious about it?

It's a tone thing. Mafia tend to be more defensive and feel more vulnerable. I would expect fear or anxiety over losing, even if said in jest, more from a mafia member than a civilian.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:39 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:35 pm I forgot about this post. Would a mafia vote "no lynch"? I don't see what that does for him if he is bad. Still reading, will be back.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:37 pm Okay I definitely will not have a chance to catch up. I am busy doing Charlie Work, so in good conscience I vote to punt.

[VOTE: NO LYNCH] aubergine

Mafia would totally vote no lynch. Lynching is the only tool we have to kill mafia. With no lynches, mafia automatically wins.

Llama is all over #nolynchgate

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:02 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:59 pm I’ll open my question up for everybody: who do we have the strongest reads on? Does anybody feel they have a strong scum read on someone?

My current strongest baddie read is Luna.

This isn't the impression I got from reading the posts preceding this one, but maybe that's just because he was more actively engaged in talks with/about nova and colin.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:19 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:16 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:41 pm If juliets is telling the truth, then we either have a civilian 1-shot doublevoter and a mafia roleblocker in addition to her, or she’s the only non-vanilla role in the game.

If the former, then it might be prudent for the doublevoter to claim now. We could have two pseudo-cleared civilians instead of a single dubious cop claim. I think that would be more valuable than a single concealed double vote. The mafia roleblocker is essentially powerless now, assuming they can only block night actions.

Well okay. I'm the doublevoter.

No you're not.

This is his response to luna's roleclaim. I don't like the dismissiveness of it. Or the smiley.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:44 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:34 pm I mean I threw the claim out there because I have nothing to lose from it. It's only a potential help to town. I get it looks "too convenient" but I thought it would be better than staying silent about my role. I also get that you guys don't have to believe me, but dang @Sloonei to ask for a claim and then not believe it when it shows up is a bit silly.

Having nothing to lose would be as good a reason to lie as it would be to tell the truth. If not a better reason.

I don't love this post in hindsight either. He's made up his mind that luna is lying much too quickly. I wonder what his alternative theory was.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:01 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:28 am Ok, this is getting damn confusing.

Luna's claim: the mafia knows which configuration we're in so if we're in the cop, vanilla, vanilla they know one of them can claim double voter and get away with it. Is that what you guys (Mac, Sloon, llama) believe? It does seem like a possibility. And I did make the point earlier that Luna could have given that "bright shining civ" compliment to dunya to distance herself from a kill. But, would she have known that early in the game that they were going to kill dunya? I'm more confused about Luna than I was before the NK.

Mac and nova - I don't think Mac is mafia but is his nova and sloonei suspicion believable? I need to look at nova again and see if I feel like his Mac suspicion was made up or flowed naturally. sloonei's suspicion of me and subsequent tunneling definitely seemed off to me given my behavior as a civ over many games. I don't relish the thought of re-reading sloonei but I guess I'm going to have to. Sloonei is my tinfoil suspicion.

@thellama73 what are you thinking about nova and sloonei? Do the things Mac says make sense to you?

@MacDougall PLEASE don't check out. We really need you now. No one was responding to you because we were asleep not because we don't care. Please don't devolve into just trolling.

I have not felt too good about Nova from the beginning, but I don't have very much concrete to go on. I think Sloonei is civilian. Pretty much the only thing I really agree with Mac on is his suspicion of Luna. I think her claim coming as it did right after Sloonei mentioned that it would be a good idea for the doublevoter to claim, felt too convenient. She said "I have nothing to lose" which sounds to me like a baddie about to be lynched throwing a last minute hail mary. I don't think it's as sophisticated the analysis above indicates. Just desperation.

Luna claimed doublevoter with ~24 hours or so remaining in the day, and with a poll that was very much undecided. I don't buy the "hail mary" theory. It's okay to be skeptical of the claim (it would be silly not to be), but llama is outright dismissive of it. No me gusta. He also continues to tug on a vague nova thread. Mac has been vocally opposing nova all game, as is well documented. Maybe nova's just trying to get that thread to come loose without having to get his hands too dirty.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:01 pm

Mongoose wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:05 am

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:45 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:03 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:01 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:45 pm I don't like when people vote no lynch. DO NOT WANT.

I agree llama unless its a case like they just had in Gossip Girl. But how do you explain a mafia member voting no lynch? Two of them in fact if you think Colin and Mongoose are bad (the you in this sentence is not meant to mean you specifically).

I wish I was better at reading you. You always read the same to me. I do think it's unlikely that both mafia members would vote for No Lynch, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of them did.

llama are you calling this an explanation? I still don't understand why a baddie would vote no lynch.

They wouldn’t. Seems instead like the calling cards of civs that don’t know what heck they are doing on Day 1 and really stressed by that.

Ignoring the basic logic of why no lynches benefit mafia, which I have now explained twice, does not make me feel better about you.

Llama says he doesn't feel good about Mongoose. He previously gave her the lightest possible slap on the wrist. He is pushing hard against luna, pushing softly against nova, and has previously pushed against Colin. He's made two passive statements of opposition against Mongoose but has never once pursued a case against her. Just stating facts.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:40 pm I forgot to say this earlier in my post about Mac, but I am now firmly convinced he is civ. The tunneling, the wild leaps of logic, the barely suppressed hostility, and unfaltering snark all read as civ Mac to me.

Mac is a pigeon and llama is Charlie.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:45 pm Sorry for multiposting, but things keep ocurring to me that I want to get down. If Mongoose's no lynch vote was indeed accidental, and I believe that it was, then we can deduce nothing about her alignment from it. I still don't think she looks good, but thta is one piece of evidence that is off the table.

On the other hand, I maintain that intentionally voting No Lynch is an anti-town move. I said before that I did not believe both baddies would vote No Lynch in concert, so if Colin turns out to be bad, Mongoose wouldn't be, and vice versa. That logic no longer holds since one of the votes was unintentional. I think this makes Colin look worse, as the only player to actively choose no lynch. His unwillingness to participate very much is not helping him, either.

I'm furrowing my brow at this right now. My brow is furrowed. You would almost not believe how furrowed my brow is.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:10 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:36 pm @thellama73 I don't think I've interacted with you at all this game, but Hi, I'm luna, and I like your posts. I also feel like Colin is more likely to be bad than mongoose. And you're confidence in mongoose says a lot since I gather you two have played mafia together before.

What confidence in Mongoose? I have been reading her as likely bad this whole game. Have you read my posts? Hi, by the way. It's nice to meet you. I hope you won't take me trying to lynch you personally.

Hi yes, I have read your posts. I see you saying that Mongoose is bad but I've also only seen you nudge her away from suspicion rather than pursuing her with the same vigor as your other suspects. What's the deal with that?

thellama73 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:29 pm Okay, Sloonei, you win. Luna is faker than a plastic Christmas tree in July.

[VOTE: Luna] aubergine

Yuck. I shot down this notion right away, but now that I've put my anti-llama goggles on this post smells unpleasant. This post/vote comes in the middle of a conversation between Luna and I. I was grilling her a bit, but I was not actively passing judgment at the time and my only object was to clarify my own read on her. I came out of it with an improved outlook on luna. But llama jumped in part-way through to credit me for convincing him that Luna was bad. I'd done no such thing, and he'd been itching to vote for all day anyway. He hides behind me to do it. Or he thinks by roping me in with the vote he can get me to bolster my own confidence in my suspicion against her. Let me say again: Yuck.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:32 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:30 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:29 pm Okay, Sloonei, you win. Luna is faker than a plastic Christmas tree in July.

[VOTE: Luna] aubergine

I haven't arrived at that conclusion yet. What makes you so sure?

There's NO WAY this sentence is sincere. It reads completely contrived. Not buying it for one second.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:24 pm my bad, ask it the other way around then. I had the same intention either way: to get people talking so we can attempt to lynch scum today.

I don't object to luna's post. I believe I said so at the time.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:43 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:40 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:37 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:35 pm This reminds me GoC Luna

Explain

Blatant inconsistencies in her rainbows/gth reads.

I didn't play GOC, but to me that indicates that the reads are not real, but just something she came up with in the moment to appear to be participating.

This looks more bloodthirsty than anything.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:07 am

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:47 pm The tangent about the no lynch votes was exaggerated.

Perhaps people who have played with me before can attest that I have a history of railing against no lynch votes as being anti-town.

My pronouns are he/him.

Note to thread: repeating "we're not talking enough" is not contribution. If you want more dialogue, post analysis, not chastisement for quietness.

I remember this post. I kept waiting for him to follow up with some sort of analysis to back up his chastisement for quietness. But he didn't. I wanted to be a sassmaster and say "Note to llama: telling people to post more analysis isn't a contribution. If you want more dialogue, post analysis." But he was my #2 town read at the time and I didn't think he deserved it. But I've changed my mind. He deserves it.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:48 am @MacDougall You are very certain about Nova, who pinged me early on but hasn't done anything I've found suspicious in a while. Can you summarize why you are so sure he's bad for me?

One thing I do want to say is that I don't get a teammate vibe between llama and mac. This exchange is a good example of why not. llama tries to cozy up to mac to talk about nova, but Mac just kind of swats him away, leaving llama to figure it out himself, which he eventually does, concluding that he doesn't find the case convincing, but that he seems to read mac positively for it anyway.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:52 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:05 pm i'm playing operation trustfall in my head, so here's the results:

Colin: very nonchalant attitude toward the game. Mafia Colin wouldn't want to expose himself so easily.
juliets: Claimed to be the cop when there was no indication anywhere about the setup.
Lunalee: Readily engaged in discussions whenever she's present, claimed doublevoter when apparently not fully understanding how to read the matrix. A fake claim would have presumably been extra risky according to her understanding at the time.
Macdougall: Thrown accusations around as per usual.
Mongoose: Authentic tone.
nova: This is the most active I've ever seen nova. His participation has been steadily increasing in games recently, but this is his busiest performance yet. He reads authentic and I don't object to any of his reads even if I disagree with some of them.
thellama: Made his presence felt immediately upon replacing into the game. Has shared opinions and been engaging every time he's been in the thread.

The town reads I feel the weakest about here are Colin, Mac, and Mongoose. juliets, llama, and nova are the strongest. I guess that puts luna squarely in the middle.

This looks fun. I will join in.

Colin: The strongest point in his favor is that he seemingly doesn't care about the game, which would be less likely if he had a teammate telling him to get in there. That said, it's WIFOMy and not very compelling.
juliets: I sense genuine frustration from her and her role claim is believable, both because of what we know about posible game scenarios and because I don't think I have ever seen her fake claim before.
Lunalee: The only thing thta looks good to me about Lunalee is her claim not to understand the matrix. However, the timing of her role claim and subsequent attempt to blame Sloonei for it is not convincing to me. The tone of her posts has my gut screaming baddie.
Macdougall: Wild and crazy, tunnel vision accusations. Reads like typical civ Mac to me.
Mongoose: Her tone was off on Day 0. However, she has seemed normal to me since then.
Nova: Pinged me early on, but has been a good participant with useful contributions lately.
Sloonei: What I would describe as the leader of the thread, driving discussion more than any other player. Generally a good look.

My strongest town reads are juliets, Mac, and Sloonei. My weakest are Luna, Colin, and Mongose. Nova is in the middle.

I liked this post and I still kinda do. I did not ask for anybody else to follow me in this exercise, but llama jumped on it anyway. If he's mafia, though, he's feeling confident at this point and should have no trouble faking some reads on everybody. This isn't enough to render my tunnel vision obsolete.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:53 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:50 pm Does anyone think it's likely that Luna never misunderstood the matrix, but is mafia and made up the fake claim and pretended not to understand it to make her claim more believable?

Personally, I would bet against this possibility. My theory is she legitimately misunderstood the matrix, but fake role-claimed anyway because, to quote her, she "had nothing to lose."

Speaking of tunnel vision...

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:34 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:32 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:29 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:27 pm Lynch all liars?

Epignosis claims he lies all the time as a civilian, but he is weird. I generally assume that if someone is caught in a lie, they are bad. The question I'm asking myself now is whether you legitimately expected me to forget a suspicion I had less than 72 hours ago.

I don't expect you to forget it. However, I'd expect you to omit it when sharing reads especially when it's something as weak as being pinged by "Hi, I'm nova and I'm tired of losing". The contrast is too big.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:17 pm Perhaps lol. I disagree though, the original ping itself (yours) is pretty weak. It's about my first comment in thread "tired to lose" that one has to milk heavily in order to extrapolate a scum read from. I feel that'd be pretty natural for someone to forget about it with how many other posts and content I have that can be analyzed for reads. Repeating it several times (especially when it's contrasted by a "I feel better about him now/recently") strikes me as being extremely self-aware to and attempt to keep consistency that isn't natural.

Arbitrary word-twisting.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:02 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:01 pm Also since when are cases important.

He's also remained snarky throughout all my tunneling. Civs get mad when they get tunneled. He's just begrudgingly admiring me while other people actually do the defending.

I would say it depends on the civ, but this is probably the best point you've made in favor of your theory so far.

llama is back to encouraging Mac in his nova suspicion. Methinks he's trying to set up that Day 3 mislynch.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:07 pm I must say, this has turned into a rather interesting day. Lots of heated discussion. I'm enjoying that. I still think Luna is the droids you're looking for though.

YOU KNOW, i see this hollow approval of the atmosphere in the thread, but I don't see a whole lot of real digging in from llama. I see him squeezing tight on a couple of suspects that look as though they were pre-determined (luna and nova), but he's not casting a very wide net and he doesn't appear openly skeptical of anyone or anything. His sights are set on his two targets and he's unilaterally framing them as bad. No one else appears to be on his radar. I've almost forgotten why I town read llama.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:08 pm RIP Colin. I have to reevaluate. Luna and Juliets are for sure cleared now, and the fact that I was wrong about both Luna and COlin has me worried. I'm going to go back and do a full reread of everyone before Day 3. That means there are two mafia members hiding between Nova, Sloonei, Mac, and Mongoose. I was previously reading both Mac and Sloonei as town, but I can't be sure of that anymore. I agree with Mac that Sloonei's vote switching antics don't look great. Mac, to answer your question, when I do my rereads I will look out for team compatibility in particular and let you know what I discover.

This feels sterile, rehearsed.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:15 pm Cool, detached, rational Sloonei transforms into panicky, sarcastic, NO-Uing Sloonei in the space of one page. Surprisingly, I think this makes him look like a civ. I actually agree with Mac's earlier assessment that the mafia tend to remain cooler under fire than a falsely accused civilian.

Thanks.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:19 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:17 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:15 pm Cool, detached, rational Sloonei transforms into panicky, sarcastic, NO-Uing Sloonei in the space of one page. Surprisingly, I think this makes him look like a civ. I actually agree with Mac's earlier assessment that the mafia tend to remain cooler under fire than a falsely accused civilian.

So you are saying that you are bad then? Because if Sloonei is a civilian I guess that makes you and Nova the Mafia.

Nope. I think it's probably Mongoose and Nova.

Interesting take. Sticking to those nova guns, and not upsetting his pocketed buddy in Mac.

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:56 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:49 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:48 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:47 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:15 pm Cool, detached, rational Sloonei transforms into panicky, sarcastic, NO-Uing Sloonei in the space of one page. Surprisingly, I think this makes him look like a civ. I actually agree with Mac's earlier assessment that the mafia tend to remain cooler under fire than a falsely accused civilian.

Where did he say this?

here.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:01 pm Also since when are cases important.

He's also remained snarky throughout all my tunneling. Civs get mad when they get tunneled. He's just begrudgingly admiring me while other people actually do the defending.

Wild how Mac applies a double standard to his suspects, huh?

He unquestioningly does. The question is, is that allignment indicative?

I dunno llama. Is it?


I did this ISO asking myself if I believed llama could be bad, and so I tried to find the bad in all his posts. It was much easier than I anticipated.
Sorry I got all up in your face, Mac. You might actually be town.

Oh and another note: while mac, nova, and I were tearing each other apart in the immediate aftermath of the lynch, llama was just kind of... hanging out in the background. After pledging to reread us all and work out his new reads. [mention]thellama73[/mention] why didn't you take a more aggressive approach in that scrum?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:46 pm Juliets you and I are on the exact same page. I think Luna is too and Mongoose. All we need to do is work together and we will easily accomplish this.

I’m on board.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:13 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:46 pm Juliets you and I are on the exact same page. I think Luna is too and Mongoose. All we need to do is work together and we will easily accomplish this.

I’m on board.

With what, exactly?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:14 am

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:13 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:46 pm Juliets you and I are on the exact same page. I think Luna is too and Mongoose. All we need to do is work together and we will easily accomplish this.

I’m on board.

With what, exactly?

Relax, not your lunch. Baddie hunting. Someone is leading us around by the noses, and I’m sick of it.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:29 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:14 am

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:13 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:46 pm Juliets you and I are on the exact same page. I think Luna is too and Mongoose. All we need to do is work together and we will easily accomplish this.

I’m on board.

With what, exactly?

Relax, not your lunch. Baddie hunting. Someone is leading us around by the noses, and I’m sick of it.

Talk to me about llama.

Also, why not me?

Mongoose wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:21 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:45 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:43 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:37 pm To refresh: the only possible setups in the matrix with a cop are mafia roleblocker and 1-shot town doublevoter, or all vanilla. If it's the latter, then a mafia member could easily claim doublevoter because they know they can't be counter-claimed. If it's the former then Luna could easily be telling the truth. But there's absolutely no way for us to know right now.

so your two options are: both juliets and I are scum and coordinated the claims, or both juliets and I are town and are telling the truth.

No. It's entirely possible that juliets is telling the truth and you are lying.

How would that fit with the matrix you posted then? If I were lying and juliets and I were not both scum, someone could have counter-claimed. Correct?

If I was the civ double voter and someone else claimed; I don’t think I’d out them. I’d let them take their chances at night instead of me.

What did you mean when you posted this, [mention]Mongoose[/mention]

Post-Day 1 Mongoose ISO since I've already gone through her Day 1 things and right now I'm most interested in her behavior around llama. Mongoose was a suspect but she was dropped without any real scrutiny today. Why? Everyone seems like they just cited a "believable tone", but she wasn't really pressured at any point. I am skeptical. Anti-mongoose goggles on.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:55 pm Oof, I am married to so few of these.

SUBECT TO CHANGE

ColinIsCool good
dunya good
juliets good
Lunalee bad?
MacDougall good
Mongoose goodgoose
novaselinenever good
Sloonei angelic

This is not going to work out well for me.

I highlighted this list already. When the GTH exercise was first introduced here, one of the early pieces of analysis that proved fruitful was "Mafia have fewer 'bad' reads", the thinking being that they know all the alignments and are more timid about needing to back up false accusations. But this analysis could only carry us so far because, eventually, the regular members of the community adapted. Mongoose was not here for any of that. Listing ONE bad read, and a player who is now more or less confirmed town at that, is an unflattering look.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:02 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:58 pm

Mongoose wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:55 pm Oof, I am married to so few of these.

SUBECT TO CHANGE

ColinIsCool good
dunya good
juliets good
Lunalee bad?
MacDougall good
Mongoose goodgoose
novaselinenever good
Sloonei angelic

This is not going to work out well for me.

Maybe I need to give Luna another look.

I got some mild to moderate flack for this in Day 1, but I can't understand why there's resistance to delving deeper with her. I mean to me, no one is above receiving scrutiny, except Sloonei (Sloonei, if you are Kaiser Soze'ing me, I will be so impressed/apoplectic)

Will mongoose start dishing out some of that well-deserved scrutiny soon?

Mongoose wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:45 pm Wow, thanks for all the work you put into that. I am kinda blown away.

You're welcome. Did you have any thoughts on my color codes?

Mongoose wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:56 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:48 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:04 pm I think I'll try Jay's "find the town instead of the scum" strategy this game. I think it will be easier for me.

This post is the reason I town read her I guess.

Whyyyy? Anyone could say that, regardless of alignment. That's a Safety McSaferson thing to say. I'm not saying it's suspicious in of itself (clearly, it's not and do not misunderstand me), but it's hardly a Visa to Civ Country.

Llama and Mongoose are at the forefront of the Anti-Luna brigade. For the record.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:12 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:06 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:53 am Ok thanks llama that's very helpful. Can you be more specific on what you are seeing in nova that causes you to call him bad? If you have done that and I missed it, my apologies.

Not a lot concrete. I found the initial "tired of losing" comment suspicious. Others have gone on to explain that away, but I don't know that I'm convinced. I don't like Nova's case on Mac. Very unconvincing to me. Call it a gut read if you like.

I find the latter allegation way way more persuasive than the former.

Linkcake

Mongoose finds "I don't like Nova's case on Mac. Very unconvincing... Call it a gut read" to be a persuasive allegation. Noted.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:14 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:11 pm

Mongoose wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:05 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:28 am

Mongoose wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:23 am Who is left in the pool that I can lock? Is Mac available? Since Juliets and Sloonei were taken, I’ll pick him.

Only the cool kids can lock someone

???

The exercise was directed at my strongest town reads, to get down to a 3 player PoE using each other reads.

I'm interested though in who you would lock town, if all living players were available.

Spoiler: show

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:03 am Let's try something, Juliets and dunya.

Let's each "lock" another player as town, and see what PoE we would get. We can't lock the same player.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:11 am

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:05 am

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:04 am I'm picking Sloonei

ok I'm picking dunya

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:05 am

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:03 am Let's try something, Juliets and dunya.

Let's each "lock" another player as town, and see what PoE we would get. We can't lock the same player.

i'll lock juliets.

We can't lock each other (I wasn't chosen )

The point of it is to get down to a 3 player PoE using each others reads. You two as well as Sloonei are my strongest town reads at the moment. I might not be yours lol (looking at you Dunya), but let's find each other.

If I can only lock one, I’d pick Sloonei. That dude has played a fine game and his effort has been top notch. Reads as genuine and he was the first person I personally mentally locked as town.

Thanks.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:22 pm I’m going to upgrade Colin to 75/25. His presence is welcome and comforting (does that sound like I’m reviewing a masseur?!?) Feeling better about him today.

Mongoose and llama's reads are oddly in sync at this point. Both are narrowed in on Luna and nova. Llama largely ignored Colin on Day 2, and Mongoose supports him here.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:27 pm Oooh by bills on the floor, does it sound like I’m in a strip club? I meant legislative bills during session.

This post made me laugh. I pictures a court room that is also a strip club. Uh, anyway...

Mongoose wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:20 am

thellama73 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:35 pm Okay, now that it's Day, I have questions.

Colin & Mongoose: Why did you vote no lynch yesterday? Be specific.

Everyone else: What is your read on Luna? I don't like how no one but me is talking about her. It feels like a "move on, nothing to see here" kind of scenario.

I’ve been on the fence on whether to be truthful about what happened with my vote (hear me out), but I’ve been very candid in this game and I want to continue that. About 45 mins before the vote ended, I decided to switch my vote to Luna, Like is said I would do when I fully picked a player to vote. I literally voted in one of the changing stalls at the yoga studio. Then I put my phone in my bag and headed to class. When I got out, I was shocked to see that the poll said I voted No Lynch. I don’t know if I failed to lock my phone and the gremlins got at it, if it’s another symptom of Mercury being in retrograde, or it just tumbled around in my gym bag with my clothes when I stuffed it into a cubby, but I didn’t intend to switch off Luna.

I mean why would I? I promised all day that I would vote for a player, and I kinda torpedoed my work day to catch up to my put myself in a position to do that. So imagine my abject horror when I saw it didn’t reflect Luna. I don’t blame you if you are skeptical of this story. I’d be too if it hadn’t happened to me.

But that’s what really happened. I won’t be doing any more no lynch votes by the way; I was kinda using it as a placeholder to make sure I wasn’t a voting non participant.

It was one of the most frustrating things I’ve experienced in a game and it was no one’s fault, but YIKES.

If you have any questions, please @ me to ensure I see it -thanks!

Tinfoil time. Llama squeezed a question for mongoose (and Colin) to explain their no lynch votes in the middle of a multi-question post. Mongoose provided a convoluted (but not unbelievable) story excusing the vote as non-strategic and accidental. This whole exchange is something that could easily be cooked up in BTSC. "I've been on the fence about this..." suggests an element of premeditation, and llama provided her with the oh so convenient avenue into hopping off that fence. The ease with which llama then accepted the story does little to alleviate my suspicion. Eyeball emoji.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:33 am

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:16 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:41 pm If juliets is telling the truth, then we either have a civilian 1-shot doublevoter and a mafia roleblocker in addition to her, or she’s the only non-vanilla role in the game.

If the former, then it might be prudent for the doublevoter to claim now. We could have two pseudo-cleared civilians instead of a single dubious cop claim. I think that would be more valuable than a single concealed double vote. The mafia roleblocker is essentially powerless now, assuming they can only block night actions.

Well okay. I'm the doublevoter.

Are we sure about that?

This mirrors llama's reaction again.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:35 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:54 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:34 pm dunya was a very obvious kill target regardless of the mafia team.

You would say that because you are obviously Nova's teammate

You are cracking me up this game

Mac earned that second socky in his sig.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:43 am

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:39 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:20 am I just spent an entire night not sleeping so I might be insane right now, but I think you’re both town.

Ok, after reading the Nova/Mac drama, where Mac accuses Nova of being teammates with Sloonei, Sloonei says this. And it looks like something a teammate would totally do.

I GET this read but I just cannot fathom Sloonei being mafia. I think I could be talked into Nova (although not just because he won’t get off Mac’s ass - we’ve all been super wrong before with needless civ on civ violence ), but I just can’t with Sloonei

Linki

This post is shaky. It's wobbling. It's got a loose leg. She wants to direct some shade at nova, but not the wrong kind of shade. Because he's an easier (mis)lynch than Sloonei. And if we're all gonna decide we townread luna then nova would be Llama & Mongoose's preferred fallback plan. Because Macdougall has a big strong case against him already that we can hide behind.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:48 am

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:09 pm You know, I sort of think nova stood up to Mac's suspicions pretty well. Instead of conceding to Mac's questioning, or changing his opinions to get on Mac's side, he dug his feet in hard, and fired back with every reason to do so. I'm just not convinced he's scum because of it.

That’s a fair point. (Nova is my next reddish pick after Luna, so I’m following this along closely as well)

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:32 am
2. I didn’t address it yet because a) he always finds me at least a little suspicious early on and b) it felt like dicta, or thinking aloud. And/or things I had already answered from other people, so I didn’t want to recapitulate my thoughts unnecessarily (however, if that’s what’s asked, I am absolutely happy to do that, I just don’t like to be boring and repetitive).

Snipped from a larger post. This is Mongoose's response to juliets asking why she hadn't responded to llama's "slightly bad" read earlier. Her answer is... I don't know. Is this even an answer? "I didn't engage with the player who knows me best when he called me bad because I didn't want to repeat things unnecessarily"?

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:48 pm Sorry for the multi-posting, I am continued with the ISO read and I am gathering more thoughts.

I think it's noteworthy that her greenlight reads (juliets/thellama73/MacDougall) as of yesterday around 430pm are otherwise top folks that have been labeled as Super Civ seeming (except for Mac by Nova). They are obvious choices, safe choices, and choices I don't disagree with (other than the lack of Sloonei), but I think it's worth mentioning. If she is indeed mafia, we might want to look again in those (temporarily) cleared players to see if there's a wolf in civ's clothing. Maybe.

As for points for Luna:

I believed her matrix declaration. I am not sure about the role claim. It's brazen as hell either way. I think she has been absolutely trying to be present and helpful when she is around.

linki - Colin next

The dig at luna to open this post feels a little bit strained and bloodthirsty again. She also provides this before addressing my request to give a point in favor of luna, which serves to negate the positive thing she's about to say a little bit. She also stops short of actually naming any alternative suspects here. Just gives a vague gesture towards a deeply concealed bad guy.

Colin is cool

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:07 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:50 pm Does anyone think it's likely that Luna never misunderstood the matrix, but is mafia and made up the fake claim and pretended not to understand it to make her claim more believable?

It certainly crossed my mind. I dunno about likely. It's been the #1 topic on my mind for the last 16 hours or so.

I'm not sure this statement resonates as truth against the backdrop of mongoose's posts during those 16 hours or so. She brought it up a few times, but I don't see her really wrestling with the issue much. She dropped the matrix kerfuffle in as her point in favor of luna and few other passive allusions to it, but at no point do I see mongoose really making a statement one way or the other about luna's claim and understanding of the matrix.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:10 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:04 pm However, I have my own objections to her categorization of my treatment of her claim.

The timing of it seemed so opportunistic. Even the way she went about it seemed like "What the hell; let's give this a shot." Flippant, right? Not like you would expect from a civ who actually is the one with the ability. It's lacking that gravitas that Juliets had when she was all "I'm Spartacop"

Like llama, Mongoose responds with encouragement to my Luna chatter, but with a point I don't agree with. I can see either or both of them working to lock others into the luna bandwagon with them while also sowing seeds for nova as a fallback/tomorrow plan.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:18 pm

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:15 pm So you think Luna claiming she had nothing to lose was a lie? I don't think that. I think she legitimately believed she was about to be lynched and threw out a claim as a last ditch effort to save herself. If she is mafia, then she has nothing to fear from a nightkill, like a civ roleclaimer would.

I am not saying she was lying. She may have even believed it, but that doesn't mean that it's true. I understand the point you are making though.

And that's all presupposing we believe the roleclaim. Four of us don't - or at least not enough to not vote her (at this time).

Llama and Mongoose talk about the nature of luna's roleclaim a bit, but mongoose leaves it at "we don't believe her anyway." I am troubled by the middle segment of the top line: "She may have even believed [her roleclaim], but that doesn't mean that it's true." What?

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:05 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:01 pm

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:00 pm Good memory @MacDougall - I believe this is what you meant:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:10 pm ColinIsCool I would love for you to provide me with an in depth analysis of novaselinenever and vice versa please and thank you.

And how did they react to that?

Colin:
@MacDougall

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:25 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:10 pm ColinIsCool I would love for you to provide me with an in depth analysis of novaselinenever and vice versa please and thank you.

Maybe

Nova:

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:07 am Who's not impressed by Mac's exercise?

Spoiler: show

Mac prods her on the possibility of a nova/colin pairing. Mongoose obliges him. Let's see what she does with this.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:03 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:01 pm We've got an hour and a half left, votes ever so slightly leaning toward Colin. I support this lynch, but my mind is far from made up. If anything has any concerns about either of these wagons, or about anything else that's going on, please voice them. This is a pretty crucial lynch.

I stand by my Colin blow-by-blow from earlier.

Evidently it didn't sway her on Colin at all.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:08 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:01 pm We've got an hour and a half left, votes ever so slightly leaning toward Colin. I support this lynch, but my mind is far from made up. If anything has any concerns about either of these wagons, or about anything else that's going on, please voice them. This is a pretty crucial lynch.

Bleeding over from yesterday, it would definitely be nova. Seems as much as a complementary team as any of the others we've postulated.

... but nova is still fair game.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:12 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:09 pm

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:08 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:01 pm We've got an hour and a half left, votes ever so slightly leaning toward Colin. I support this lynch, but my mind is far from made up. If anything has any concerns about either of these wagons, or about anything else that's going on, please voice them. This is a pretty crucial lynch.

Bleeding over from yesterday, it would definitely be nova. Seems as much as a complementary team as any of the others we've postulated.

What if luna is town?

I will eat crow. If you are asking me who my third choice is, I'd have to think about it, especially in that Brave New World. i don't have anyone in yellow range right now, so I'd have to maybe do a read on everyone else. Llama being civ seems a foregone conclusion to a lot of you, but he is a tricksy rabbit worthy of the eye of Sauron too.

Will pigeon do?
Also look at that sly little nod to llama. Go ahead. Put the eye of sauron on him please. You've absolutely avoided doing so thus far, even though you apparently don't think he deserves that level of trust.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:24 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:14 pm

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:13 pm Someone is hoodwinking us big time.

Got a guess who it might be?

Okay so if either luna or nova are not bad, these folks remain: MacDougall, you/Sloonei, juliets, Colin, thellama73

I would say maybe Llama or Juliets would warrant the extra scrutiny. This might be unfair since I know them more personally than the other folks, but I know they are both crafty, artful and can finesse their words in the right circumstance. That said, I still don't really suspect Juliets (or llama YET for that matter), but that's my answer. I think either of them having the capabilities of being a hoodwinker.

Same question for you, Sloonei - would you pick (given that you and I feel very differently about Colin)?

Llama/Mongoose pairing is not hard to see. Luna and juliets are firmly removed from the POE at this point. That leaves these two + nova & mac. The emotions were very high following the Day 2 lynch and I honestly struggle to believe that either of them were faking it. I've read nova as town all game long and would be thoroughly impressed if he's bad. Mac is never an easy read for me, but I can believe that he'd believe the case he made against nova and I. It's the type of coordinated suspicion he'd be prone to. That leaves me with llama and mongoose, neither of whom have really been driving forces in any of the lynches, but both of whom have had their tentacles (llamas and mongooses have tentacles, right?) all over the same couple of bandwagons, one of which we can assume to have been wrong, and another which I firmly believe to be wrong.
I think llama looks slightly worse, but I feel there's decent evidence of a pairing here, and it was not difficult to read either of them as scum individually.

tl;dr version of those two text walls: Llama and Mongoose played Day 2 almost identically. They've both expressed vague soft sort-of-suspicion of each other but not for a second has either one seriously pursued the other as a candidate. Their interactions have been minimal, the most noteworthy exchange being llama setting mongoose up to explain her No Lynch vote. They both applied pressure to Luna by playing a sort of Devil's Advocate role against her. Neither one supported the Colin wagon. Llama didn't do much to defend him, but mongoose at least made a passing effort. Both of them were propping up Mac's case against nova throughout the day as well. Neither of them really engaged in the chaos that followed the Colin mislynch.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:29 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:14 am

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:13 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:46 pm Juliets you and I are on the exact same page. I think Luna is too and Mongoose. All we need to do is work together and we will easily accomplish this.

I’m on board.

With what, exactly?

Relax, not your lunch. Baddie hunting. Someone is leading us around by the noses, and I’m sick of it.

juliets
Lunalee
thellama73
MacDougall
Mongoose
novaselinenever
Sloonei

The mafia team according to mongoose?

I just want you all to know that I don't care that Sloonei reconsidered his position I still firmly believe that he and Nova are Mafia.

Also goodnight.

I see Sloonei left me some homework. Let me get some coffee in me and I’ll happily get down to it at a computer! I hope we see more of this level of analysis from folks about everyone.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:31 am Also, why not me?

Even after the chaos of yesterday, I am just not ready to believe you are the Architect of our Destruction, like Mac does. You had so much civ credit going into Night 2, that it's going to take more than that to shake my Captain Civ Sloonei foundation.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:31 am

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:29 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:14 am

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:13 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:46 pm Juliets you and I are on the exact same page. I think Luna is too and Mongoose. All we need to do is work together and we will easily accomplish this.

I’m on board.

With what, exactly?

Relax, not your lunch. Baddie hunting. Someone is leading us around by the noses, and I’m sick of it.

Talk to me about llama.

He came in with guns blazing, ready to help the town, but then what did you expect? He is going to do that no matter his alignment. I feel like I always suspect him because he has the propensity for such tricksiness. While I don't think he has done anything brazenly suspicious, he is always one to monitor. That's why he is a nice goldenrod on my rainbow.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:33 am

Mongoose wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:21 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:45 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:43 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:37 pm To refresh: the only possible setups in the matrix with a cop are mafia roleblocker and 1-shot town doublevoter, or all vanilla. If it's the latter, then a mafia member could easily claim doublevoter because they know they can't be counter-claimed. If it's the former then Luna could easily be telling the truth. But there's absolutely no way for us to know right now.

so your two options are: both juliets and I are scum and coordinated the claims, or both juliets and I are town and are telling the truth.

No. It's entirely possible that juliets is telling the truth and you are lying.

How would that fit with the matrix you posted then? If I were lying and juliets and I were not both scum, someone could have counter-claimed. Correct?

If I was the civ double voter and someone else claimed; I don’t think I’d out them. I’d let them take their chances at night instead of me.

What did you mean when you posted this, Mongoose

Okay let's say Clover, a civ, false role claimed my position. I'm old school and Do Not role claim. I'd let Clover get town cleared but let her be a big target for night actions instead of me.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:14 pm Nova made up a bs read of me on page fucking one and not once has he doubted it. I mean get real. Civilians don't do that. Fuck I wish dunya was still here.

This is the main thing that wories me about Nova as well. I don't believe his claim that he suspects me for having a consistent read on him. That doesn't make sense to me. It feels like he decided to build a case on me first and went looking for evidence for it later. I also don't like his comment where he basically said "I won't get lynched as long as I am around to defend myself." That's overconfidence.

Mongoose wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:18 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:33 am

Mongoose wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:21 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:45 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:43 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:37 pm To refresh: the only possible setups in the matrix with a cop are mafia roleblocker and 1-shot town doublevoter, or all vanilla. If it's the latter, then a mafia member could easily claim doublevoter because they know they can't be counter-claimed. If it's the former then Luna could easily be telling the truth. But there's absolutely no way for us to know right now.

so your two options are: both juliets and I are scum and coordinated the claims, or both juliets and I are town and are telling the truth.

No. It's entirely possible that juliets is telling the truth and you are lying.

How would that fit with the matrix you posted then? If I were lying and juliets and I were not both scum, someone could have counter-claimed. Correct?

If I was the civ double voter and someone else claimed; I don’t think I’d out them. I’d let them take their chances at night instead of me.

What did you mean when you posted this, Mongoose

Okay let's say Clover, a civ, false role claimed my position. I'm old school and Do Not role claim. I'd let Clover get town cleared but let her be a big target for night actions instead of me.

So you are saying if I falsely claimed cop, and you were the cop you wouldn't claim and instead let me get night killed by the mafia, I think that's what you're saying anyway. But what does this have to do with Luna? She claimed a different role, double-voter. Are you saying if I falsely claimed cop you wouldn't claim the role that substantiates my cop claim and just go ahead and let me get NK's? That's what I thought you were saying earlier but the example confuses me a little.

linki

thellama73 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:45 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:14 pm Nova made up a bs read of me on page fucking one and not once has he doubted it. I mean get real. Civilians don't do that. Fuck I wish dunya was still here.

This is the main thing that wories me about Nova as well. I don't believe his claim that he suspects me for having a consistent read on him. That doesn't make sense to me. It feels like he decided to build a case on me first and went looking for evidence for it later. I also don't like his comment where he basically said "I won't get lynched as long as I am around to defend myself." That's overconfidence.

I agree with the overconfidence but is overconfidence AI or are you just saying you don't like it but it's NAI?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:02 am tl;dr version of those two text walls: Llama and Mongoose played Day 2 almost identically. They've both expressed vague soft sort-of-suspicion of each other but not for a second has either one seriously pursued the other as a candidate. Their interactions have been minimal, the most noteworthy exchange being llama setting mongoose up to explain her No Lynch vote. They both applied pressure to Luna by playing a sort of Devil's Advocate role against her. Neither one supported the Colin wagon. Llama didn't do much to defend him, but mongoose at least made a passing effort. Both of them were propping up Mac's case against nova throughout the day as well. Neither of them really engaged in the chaos that followed the Colin mislynch.

I'd like to know from [mention]thellama73[/mention] what his current read is on Mongoose and if it's bad, what specifically he is suspicious of, using quotes if possible.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:02 am tl;dr version of those two text walls: Llama and Mongoose played Day 2 almost identically. They've both expressed vague soft sort-of-suspicion of each other but not for a second has either one seriously pursued the other as a candidate. Their interactions have been minimal, the most noteworthy exchange being llama setting mongoose up to explain her No Lynch vote. They both applied pressure to Luna by playing a sort of Devil's Advocate role against her. Neither one supported the Colin wagon. Llama didn't do much to defend him, but mongoose at least made a passing effort. Both of them were propping up Mac's case against nova throughout the day as well. Neither of them really engaged in the chaos that followed the Colin mislynch.

Some thoughts here before I tackle the other larger post.


1.

Llama and Mongoose played Day 2 almost identically.

Wow, that's the first time someone's thought that!

2. They've both expressed vague soft sort-of-suspicion of each other but not for a second has either one seriously pursued the other as a candidate

There were seemingly better candidates. I was far from the only person to suspect Luna. The game is young. This is the first heist I've ever played (oof this pacing), so maybe that explains why everyone is so concerned with my lack of Day 1 pings and non-aggressive stance on Day 2. Back int he day, I just don't remember such drama over not having a lot of day 1 reads. It's a little baffling to me. I'm not the type to throw something out there and watch what happens. I don't disagree with that style, it's just not me.

3. Their interactions have been minimal, the most noteworthy exchange being llama setting mongoose up to explain her No Lynch vote.

I was actually perturbed someone finally brought that up (I would have been annoyed at whomever it was), as I thought it was going to go unnoticed (for the time being). I was in no mood to sort out all of that the day it happened (Weds was a real poopkicker), but he is not one to let things hang out there.

4.

Llama didn't do much to defend him, but mongoose at least made a passing effort.

I disagree with this characterization as it took me foreverrrrr to do that write-up.

5.

Both of them were propping up Mac's case against nova throughout the day as well.

I really think Mac could be onto something. Nova's got the reddest hue in my rainbow.

6.

Neither of them really engaged in the chaos that followed the Colin mislynch.

There was plenty of chaos as there was. I don't talk as much during the night periods (I am not sure if that's still a thing). Also, I know you didn't get any coursework done yesterday, but I completely eschewed all other activities throughout the day to be here, present, helpful, etc., so after the vote reveal, I really did have to check out for a bit. I didn't even do any yoga. I absolutely had to get up and stretch, and chat with my friends, and get ready for my party, pet my cats, step out in my yard (lol). I am not used to being so sedentary.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:55 am Oh and another note: while mac, nova, and I were tearing each other apart in the immediate aftermath of the lynch, llama was just kind of... hanging out in the background. After pledging to reread us all and work out his new reads. @thellama73 why didn't you take a more aggressive approach in that scrum?

I said I intend to reread you all today, which I still intend to do. Before that, I was certain that Luna was bad, so had no real reason to dig in further until she was lynched. I'll let you know what I uncover today.

[mention]Mongoose[/mention] after you answer to whatever points you want to that Sloonei made can you give a read of llama and if you read him bad tell us why specifically you read him that way?

linki