Re: Easter Mafia [DAY 5]
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:11 pm
nutella, you've talked about how confident you are that it's me and yet you're ISOing Scotty instead of me. You haven't ISO'd me yet. Why?
what? I finished reading it and pointed out the parts I felt were worth pointing out (some of them were mentioned by dizzy already so I didn't go to the trouble of quoting a lot) when I read someone's iso I don't usually make huge multiquotey posts, I just quote a couple things that stand out and I did so with I think two of Scotty's posts this morning. I'm on my phone at work so don't expect some crazy case lol. Also I will be rereading yours as well later.
I will. I wanted to see if Scotty was another potential candidate but I promise I will look back at yours to get the full picture.
As your biggest suspect and main vote-getter I should have been your first choice. I don't believe you intended to do it from the beginning.nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:13 pmwhat? I finished reading it and pointed out the parts I felt were worth pointing out (some of them were mentioned by dizzy already so I didn't go to the trouble of quoting a lot) when I read someone's iso I don't usually make huge multiquotey posts, I just quote a couple things that stand out and I did so with I think two of Scotty's posts this morning. I'm on my phone at work so don't expect some crazy case lol. Also I will be rereading yours as well later.
Nope that was before Colin actually claimed and actually before most of his weird reactions to marmot's claim. Once I was caught up on his weird shit I was all over him. Read on dude.
No, I was so confident it was you that my idea was to check out Scotty and see if there was any chance I could see it as anyone else but you, rather than PoEing it entirely.Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:19 pmAs your biggest suspect and main vote-getter I should have been your first choice. I don't believe you intended to do it from the beginning.nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:13 pmwhat? I finished reading it and pointed out the parts I felt were worth pointing out (some of them were mentioned by dizzy already so I didn't go to the trouble of quoting a lot) when I read someone's iso I don't usually make huge multiquotey posts, I just quote a couple things that stand out and I did so with I think two of Scotty's posts this morning. I'm on my phone at work so don't expect some crazy case lol. Also I will be rereading yours as well later.
Well, you'll be my first ISO![]()
nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 5:24 pmYeah at least we have this.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 5:13 pm Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.
Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.
But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine
Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive
Not right away it didn't. You'll see that he actively denied claiming and I argued with him for a while trying to figure out wtf he was doing.Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:22 pmI did. Colin's post reads as an obvious counter-claim.
Yes I was back and forth a bunch because it was stressful af to choose between the two for everyone except you apparently. But during the period to which I am referring, I was very much on Colin's case to get him to either claim or believe marmot.Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:24 pm nutella: i was all over him
also nutella:
nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 5:24 pmYeah at least we have this.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 5:13 pm Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.
Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.
But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine
Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive
We were talking about votes when you said you were all over him. That implies suspicion. Now you're saying you were all over him to get him to counter-claim or not. Which is it?nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:27 pmYes I was back and forth a bunch because it was stressful af to choose between the two for everyone except you apparently. But during the period to which I am referring, I was very much on Colin's case to get him to either claim or believe marmot.Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:24 pm nutella: i was all over him
also nutella:
nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 5:24 pmYeah at least we have this.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 5:13 pm Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.
Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.
But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine
Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive
It's very simple.nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:35 pm Honestly I cannot imagine that if you were civ you would be so confident about Colin being bad and marmot being good. That's my biggest hangup with you. The rest of us were flailing around considering every angle and even if you had already civ read marmot you should have been reevaluating constantly during day 4 . I just can't see your reactions there as genuine compared to what Jay, Dizzy and I experienced.
Yes both. I called out his "hot bullshit" reaction to marmot's claim, meaning I found it suspicious. He said he wasn't counterclaiming for a while so I gave him an ultimatum basically.Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:33 pmWe were talking about votes when you said you were all over him. That implies suspicion. Now you're saying you were all over him to get him to counter-claim or not. Which is it?nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:27 pmYes I was back and forth a bunch because it was stressful af to choose between the two for everyone except you apparently. But during the period to which I am referring, I was very much on Colin's case to get him to either claim or believe marmot.Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:24 pm nutella: i was all over him
also nutella:
nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 5:24 pmYeah at least we have this.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 5:13 pm Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.
Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.
But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine
Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive
I entered with this perspective:Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:37 pmIt's very simple.nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:35 pm Honestly I cannot imagine that if you were civ you would be so confident about Colin being bad and marmot being good. That's my biggest hangup with you. The rest of us were flailing around considering every angle and even if you had already civ read marmot you should have been reevaluating constantly during day 4 . I just can't see your reactions there as genuine compared to what Jay, Dizzy and I experienced.
Marmot = good
Colin = x
Both claim the same role, of which there is only one. x = bad. There was no need for panic.
Hope this helps.
The ultimatum obviously leading to the claim, which then caused you to vote for Marmot over Colin. Can't say that was your best decision.nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:38 pmYes both. I called out his "hot bullshit" reaction to marmot's claim, meaning I found it suspicious. He said he wasn't counterclaiming for a while so I gave him an ultimatum basically.Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:33 pmWe were talking about votes when you said you were all over him. That implies suspicion. Now you're saying you were all over him to get him to counter-claim or not. Which is it?nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:27 pmYes I was back and forth a bunch because it was stressful af to choose between the two for everyone except you apparently. But during the period to which I am referring, I was very much on Colin's case to get him to either claim or believe marmot.Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:24 pm nutella: i was all over him
also nutella:
nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 5:24 pmYeah at least we have this.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 5:13 pm Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.
Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.
But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine
Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive
It took four more posts over a 4 minute window for you to put that into action.nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 7:50 pmMmm yeah fuck I may need to switch back to Colin hmmDyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 7:45 pmWow, well fuck me. Fuck all this. That is good.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 7:44 pmIf you're Keith Shover, you had one confirmed.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 1:02 pmI am not a “cart-before-horse” style player so I don’t hunt for teammates until I have one confirmed. And I don’t have time right now for a complete ISO but I did see interactions between he and Dizzy that felt strange on his end. I would have to do an analysis on Dizzy’s posts to guarantee that.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 12:54 pmI've an exercise for you.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 12:54 pm I’m not frustrated. I’m confident that I’ve got your number here.
~ If Marmot is a lying mafioso, who is his teammate?
~ If Marmot is being truthful, who are the two mafia?
I don’t think Marmot is being truthful, but my bad feeling about lap persists (especially because the night and day difference I saw was actually a game where she was civ.)![]()
Between 9:50 (post 1) and 9:54 (post b) colin received one more vote from dizzy and 3J was treading the bad-colin path. Your vote looks bandwagony.
Probably because you're bad at algebra.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:43 pmI entered with this perspective:Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:37 pmIt's very simple.nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:35 pm Honestly I cannot imagine that if you were civ you would be so confident about Colin being bad and marmot being good. That's my biggest hangup with you. The rest of us were flailing around considering every angle and even if you had already civ read marmot you should have been reevaluating constantly during day 4 . I just can't see your reactions there as genuine compared to what Jay, Dizzy and I experienced.
Marmot = good
Colin = x
Both claim the same role, of which there is only one. x = bad. There was no need for panic.
Hope this helps.
Marmot = bad
Colin = x
Why did I find the decision so difficult?
Batter up!
nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 7:50 pmMindmelding me hon.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 7:46 pm I was so convinced it was Marmot. >.<
I see a twinge of possibility that Colin was playing up the "I'm not Keith", but it still looks bad.
nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 7:51 pmYeah I was pretty damn perplexed when he said that.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 7:49 pmIn 5% of universes, Colin allows Marmot to be Keith Shover.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 1:39 pmMuch, MUCH fewer than the ones where he’s fake claiming. I would give myself a 95% chance of being right about this and that may be even too generous to Marmot.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 1:37 pmI don't quite understand what you mean by this.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 1:35 pmIt is possible in the metaphysical sense and not much else.
Let's pretend the universe is probabilistic, and that it has been duplicated 1,000,000 times. In how many of those duplicated universes is Marmot Keith Shover?
nutella wrote: ↑Thu May 31, 2018 9:02 pmYeah, this. The rest of us were running around in a panic doing our best to ascertain who was legit and who was lying. Your calm certainty about the whole thing is really not a good look.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu May 31, 2018 8:58 pmThat's the problem. To sustain that kind of confidence under those circumstances is extremely difficult for any civilian. I had Marmot as my top mafia read entering that situation, but I didn't rest my case immediately and say "it's Colin", because I didn't know that. I realize the read existed before the claim drama. I don't understand why the claim drama didn't make you re-think the matter at all.
If you know Marmot is a civilian, then that applies at any moment when you give Marmot civilian credit.
nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 25, 2018 9:18 pmSolid. Much agreement here.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 25, 2018 8:25 pm nutella good
Scotty good
MP good
Dizzy good
Kyle good
lapluie good
Colin tinfoil
Marmot no
Epignosis no
Elohcin no
nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 26, 2018 6:52 pm![]()
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat May 26, 2018 6:50 pm I'll try to illustrate what bothers me about Jay here in a bit. Most of his recent scum hunting is characterized by low-hanging fruit, WIFOM, etc. that town Jay would only give little consideration, or at least would realize the other point of view. The difference between town Jay and scum Jay is the agenda. Town Jay, despite speaking with confidence, is never really sure of anything; he's always trying to pressure and investigate from as many angles as possible. Scum Jay is trying to appear that way but really he's pushing an agenda. I really hate that Jay's actively engaging in WIFOM and pushing Marmot as a candidate based on such weak shit.
I'll ISO him when I'm less distracted to try to highlight what I mean.![]()
well put.
nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 12:26 amI'm inclined to agree with this. It feels very forced, like it's a sad attempt to approach what an organic town Jay would do.Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Tue May 29, 2018 10:38 pm I'm not buying any of this "homework" JJJ is doing. It's phony. Giving reasons why everyone could be bad isn't actually doing anything. It just looks like it is. My vote stays.
Why did you vote the way you did, JJJ?
The timeline got mixed up somewhere.
This one is just writing the same thing in more words.nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:57 amAlso this tbh. While reading Scotty's day 2 posts it looks like he is himself guilty of what he is accusing Colin of. He suspects colin, Eloh, wolbre... and keeps emphasizing his suspicion of Colin throughout days 2 and 3 while actually fully supporting the wolbre and Eloh lynches. Kinda looks to me like he's keeping caerbannog in his back pocket as an eventual lynch candidate that should give him credit later, while still fully taking advantage of as many town lynches as possible to put it off.Scotty wrote: ↑Fri May 25, 2018 12:34 pmBut even towards the end there, he was leaving himself open to voting all other major wagons. Makes me feel like his hands were in multiple honey jars and the honey jars were spilling over, if Colin is bad then I can see one of his bad reads here being a teammate. Like, if the Elo one had taken off for real (and she were bad) he could go “oh...well I said I thought wolbre or Quin or marmot was bad so ima vote there”Marmot wrote: ↑Fri May 25, 2018 10:59 amHe had talked about wolbre quite a bit earlier on in the day, so I don't find it strange at all.Scotty wrote: ↑Fri May 25, 2018 10:40 amColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu May 24, 2018 12:17 pm I don’t feel good about Eloh either but I’m of two minds on that post. Could be scum self-preservation, or Marmot’s more charitable explanation could hold up.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu May 24, 2018 3:29 pmI don’t feel great about him either, or that he’s staying away from two wagons that both seem reasonable.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu May 24, 2018 2:39 pm I'm considering lynching Quin. His only sign of life today was to freak the hell out about some Dizzy interpretation of his own posts. I don't see evidence that this guy gives a crap about the hunt.All these posts were right after each other.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu May 24, 2018 5:36 pm I have you and Marmot leaning scum, and I’m not convinced re: Eloh, so I don’t think those are just “easy” reads.
As far as “flexible” goes, I’m certainly open to hearing arguments for anybody but a lot of these players I’ve only seen one way and I’m doing a lot of taking peoples’ word on meta analysis. JJJ, Epi, Kyle, I don’t know what they look like as scum so I don’t know what to watch out for. I disengaged from Greece after dying so anything that happened after the early stages was beyond me.
So you had one eye on Elo, one on Quin, Marmot and (I think) MP, and you ultimately add to the wolbre train. That’s a lot of eyes that aren’t really looking anywhere in particular.
You’re a spider. I have my one cyclops eye on you
I feel pretty solid town on dizzy. From pure poe they are a distant third behind quin and Scotty.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:55 pm Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?
nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?
In a two person PoE I'd lynch nutella then Dizzy. I call Scotty good prior to further investigation.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:55 pm Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?
nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?
Why do you no longer want to murder me?Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:03 pmIn a two person PoE I'd lynch nutella then Dizzy. I call Scotty good prior to further investigation.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:55 pm Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?
nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?
I was just fucking with you.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:05 pmWhy do you no longer want to murder me?Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:03 pmIn a two person PoE I'd lynch nutella then Dizzy. I call Scotty good prior to further investigation.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:55 pm Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?
nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?
I can’t expand for a bit. For now I give you:Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:07 pmI was just fucking with you.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:05 pmWhy do you no longer want to murder me?Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:03 pmIn a two person PoE I'd lynch nutella then Dizzy. I call Scotty good prior to further investigation.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:55 pm Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?
nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?
It's not like I don't. But the last clash was simply evocative. I need to read you and Epi as well.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:11 pmI can’t expand for a bit. For now I give you:Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:07 pmI was just fucking with you.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:05 pmWhy do you no longer want to murder me?Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:03 pmIn a two person PoE I'd lynch nutella then Dizzy. I call Scotty good prior to further investigation.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:55 pm Quin, what do you think of Scotty and Dizzy?
nutella, what do you think of Dizzy?
DUBIOUS
nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 29, 2018 11:51 am Poe:
if they are bad I will personally eat G-Man's dictionary:
Scotty
Epi Blackballs
Would need to seriously re-evaluate in order to not see as town:
Quin
Leaning town:
Colin
Who the hell knows:
Marmot
Tinfoil Zone:
JaggedJimmyJay
Dyslexicon
Leaning bad:
Lapluie
I might read Colin's iso next to see if I can see what others see. My gut says town on him but I don't have a lot to back that up. Dys probably next after that. I could also be wrong about lap, which scares me because that leaves a lot of possibilities.
What changed that dropped me to the very bottom of your rainbow?nutella wrote: ↑Thu May 31, 2018 1:39 amI didn't totally follow all the crazy vote changing at EOD so perhaps you are right about Jay. If it's between dizzy and quin though man idfkScotty wrote: ↑Thu May 31, 2018 1:31 am What a fucking end of day to miss! Good job boyos and thank god you were all right. JJJ coming in hot with that catch at the end.
There is no way in hell that JJJ is bad after that EoD. Surprisingly, Dys looked the worst after I left and in hindsight, next to Quin. I’ll take a detailed look at Colin interactions tomorrow. Everything he’s said in the past day is complete WIFOM and shouldn’t be taken at face value, or even below the belt value, but before he was the main lynch candidate should be entirely enlightening.
So I guess what I’m saying is: let’s lynch marmot tomorrow k
I have followed a combination of my gut and compelling thread evidence for all of my thoughts on other players, and I haven't been afraid to change my opinion a lot in the moment when presented with reason to do so. I have put myself out there and spoken my mind freely which has brought me some criticism but it's how I play and think through the thread to solve the game so I persist. I reacted organically during claim gate and did my best to consider all possibilities. I am genuinely trying still to ensure that I'm not missing anything in finding the last baddie --even though I feel very confident it is quin I have considered angles on Scotty.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:50 pm @nutella
@Scotty
@Quin
One of you is a mafioso. I need to narrow it down to two of you.
Please tell me why I should believe you are a civilian.
Can you think of a moment in this game when you doubted the accuracy of a case that another player presented to the thread?nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:56 pm I have followed a combination of my gut and compelling thread evidence for all of my thoughts on other players, and I haven't been afraid to change my opinion a lot in the moment when presented with reason to do so. I have put myself out there and spoken my mind freely which has brought me some criticism but it's how I play and think through the thread to solve the game so I persist. I reacted organically during claim gate and did my best to consider all possibilities. I am genuinely trying still to ensure that I'm not missing anything in finding the last baddie --even though I feel very confident it is quin I have considered angles on Scotty.
because you wanna win assumedlyJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:50 pm @nutella
@Scotty
@Quin
One of you is a mafioso. I need to narrow it down to two of you.
Please tell me why I should believe you are a civilian.
Yes, certainly many if not all of the cases on Colin before claimgate occurred. I townread him pretty much exclusively up until then when some other players scumread him. I'm sure there are more examples, like I think you suspected Epi after I decided he was civ, and I think Scotty has said some things about Dizzy that I disagree with. Also when Quin postedhis strong town read of marmot lol.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:59 pmCan you think of a moment in this game when you doubted the accuracy of a case that another player presented to the thread?nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:56 pm I have followed a combination of my gut and compelling thread evidence for all of my thoughts on other players, and I haven't been afraid to change my opinion a lot in the moment when presented with reason to do so. I have put myself out there and spoken my mind freely which has brought me some criticism but it's how I play and think through the thread to solve the game so I persist. I reacted organically during claim gate and did my best to consider all possibilities. I am genuinely trying still to ensure that I'm not missing anything in finding the last baddie --even though I feel very confident it is quin I have considered angles on Scotty.
Are these things that you voiced?nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:07 pm Yes, certainly many if not all of the cases on Colin before claimgate occurred. I townread him pretty much exclusively up until then when some other players scumread him. I'm sure there are more examples, like I think you suspected Epi after I decided he was civ, and I think Scotty has said some things about Dizzy that I disagree with. Also when Quin postedhis strong town read of marmot lol.
But I haaaaaaaaate feelingsJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:11 pm Quin, please review this page of the Charlie ISO and report your feelings. Don't report your findings.
I don't get it. I assume the latter bit is your opinion based on the former.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:22 pmHe'd be the last name on a full POE pool of all suspects, and he becomes less plausible a mafioso with each passing moment.
You make it sound like I should understand what you're saying from the page you had me read, but there's nothing about PoE there. So I don't understand.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:27 pmI'm not sure how you can read what I presented to you and not get it. I don't want to talk about it further.
Read it again. It's not about POE. If you still don't get it, then whatever. There's a reason I don't want to talk about it.