RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[Marmot]

Well I'm a doofus.

[insertnamehere]

Hmmph.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

First instinct tells me Golden. I'll review everything and see where I end up.

[G-Man]

Day 4 poll has been added to the poll thread.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Generally, during the end of Day 4 as the final votes were falling in, I thought everyone involved (INH, Sloonei, and MM) looked more genuine than not. They appeared to be invested in the votes they were making and holding their breath for the results. It can be faked, but that's what I read on the surface.

There is one MM post that bugs me though, and it's this WIFOM nuke. Talk about it, Marmot.

Can I just have my banner now?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Voted Sloonei.

I think both him and Quin have cases directed at them with decent reasoning behind them, but I still see Sloonei as the SK more than I do Quin.

Plus, I don't like surprise lynching someone who made clear that they wouldn't be around at EoD.

This reads honestly to me, especially the last sentence. I didn't feel great about it either (lynching someone who wasn't present at the time), but I felt it was still the best option available.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Marmot's reasons for suspecting Sloonei late in the phase, though seemingly weak on the surface, also strike me as genuine. I also like that he was willing to eliminate people from SK candidacy, to include Wilgy 2.0, myself, and even Golden (though I think his reasoning for that one is incorrect). He's been narrowing his own suspect pool and restricting his options, which isn't what I'd anticipate from an LMS independent right now.

[Sloonei]

This was fun, but I have to go do laundry now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.

Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.

The highlighted sentence reads a little cooked to me, like Golden felt he needed to say more about voting Sloonei than he actually needed to say (over-transparency, which would imply effortful transparency instead of natural transparency). He'd already made it clear earlier in the phase that Sloonei was a vote he could agree with.

Why is Golden even voting for me?

He thought you were the best case when he left. He wasn't here for the Quin development, no idea what he'd think of it.

I found it very surprising to wake up to, but entirely explicable once I read back.

I can give no genuine reaction to how I would have voted because I saw the reveal first.

What about the Quin lynch would you call "explicable", Golden?

Regarding the highlighted portion, this is a contrast to a moment from town Golden 1.0 earlier in the game:

It's easy for me to say after seeing scotty's lynch, but I do believe if I were around for EoD I would have switched to inh. But, y'know - wifom.

It's just one of those things about having to vote 7 or 8 hours before the deadline. Sorry Scotty.

As a townie, he was willing to say who he would have likely voted for if he'd been present at EOD, despite the fact that it could be perceived as WIFOM. Now as Golden 2.0, he is not so willing to employ WIFOM.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The matter of Golden has to be processed through the dynamic he has generated with INH. On Day 4, Golden struck me as someone who was willing to entertain anyone as a suspect except INH. At this stage of the game, and considering he has suspected INH earlier in the game, that suggests to me that only two universes are likely:

1. He has information on INH.

2. He knows INH is town because he's the serial killer.

At this point I lean toward the latter option. Golden has never claimed to have information (and he couldn't if he did because of the no infodumping rule). However, the following post looks to me like a soft claim that he does not have information:

Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.

Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.

He is, in vague terms, asking me to judge INH based on INH alone, not based on what Golden says about him. The problem here is that I have no actual idea what he means. He suggests that if I look into INH's own motives, I might better understand Golden's treatment of him.

I have been wholly unsuccessful in that endeavor. I don't know what I am supposed to see in INH's posts which would tell me something about Golden. I have suggested before that there may be potential for civilian BTSC (INH discarded that theory himself), or some other one-way information. That's why I asked INH this question yesterday:

INH, regardless of your actual level of suspicion, do you consider Golden 2.0 to be a player who should be scrutinized fully and as an at least possible serial killer?

Call it intuition, but I get the feeling you know what my answer is gonna be.

I believe all players should be scrutinized fully, and considered in all possible roles.

This extends to Golden possibly being a serial killer, yes.

This tells me that INH does not have information on Golden. He doesn't seem to suspect Golden primarily, but he acknowledges that he should be scrutinized just the same as a SK candidate. So if information exists, it has to be on Golden's end -- and like I said above, I think there's reason to doubt the information exists. So, drawing all of the above I am left with these two new options:

1. Golden was so sure of his read on INH that he was unwilling to even consider him a candidate in a 5 vs. 1 scenario when we're pursuing a SK (meaning there's no team dynamic to make INH look better like there was with his defenses of me earlier in the game).

2. Golden is the serial killer and knows INH is town. His motive in this scenario can be debated, but the potential gains are readily visible: maintain his alliance with INH (they may not have agreed on much in this game, but that doesn't matter as much as where their votes fall), and proceed into a final LyLo phase with at least one critical voting ally. That's a crucial benefit.

#1 strikes me as very reckless, even for the "hurricane of self-assurance". Eliminating people from mafia candidacy isn't so hard, but eliminating them from serial killer candidacy is extremely hard.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Those are the Golden concerns I wanted to get out there; I encourage y'all to give me feedback. I'm open to hearing cases against anyone else too, this is a difficult scenario (3 vs. 1 always is) and I hope we can give it the proper effort. Win or lose, I want to feel like town gave themselves a chance here.

[Golden]

Jay, why exactly are you taking inh at his word? he's a survivalist, uninterested in helping you understand the game. If you stop trying to think of him as someone who is trying to help you solve the game, and start thinking of him as a person who is trying not to die, you might understand.

1+1=3, you continually try to make it = 2.

Besides, wifom but I say it in truth - there is no way I kill sloonei last night if I was sk. If you think I'm planning this carefully, sloonei would be the guy I was setting up.

[Golden]

Voted MM for now, PoE, although I guess I need to take another look back at Jay even though I don't think the kills make sense from him.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay, why exactly are you taking inh at his word? he's a survivalist, uninterested in helping you understand the game. If you stop trying to think of him as someone who is trying to help you solve the game, and start thinking of him as a person who is trying not to die, you might understand.

If you think this description is fitting for INH, why is he not a serial killer candidate? To be primarily interested in survival and not in cooperation is definitive of an independent mindset.

[Golden]

Jay, why exactly are you taking inh at his word? he's a survivalist, uninterested in helping you understand the game. If you stop trying to think of him as someone who is trying to help you solve the game, and start thinking of him as a person who is trying not to die, you might understand.

If you think this description is fitting for INH, why is he not a serial killer candidate? To be primarily interested in survival and not in cooperation is definitive of an independent mindset.

You just go away and think about it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

INH cooperating with the rest of us on Day 4 by providing a thorough rainbow list ordering his suspects

I don't think that description of INH truly applies to his play either.

[Golden]

Maybe you should go back and read inh day one again, then.

[Golden]

I don't even know what I can say... there really isn't anything more I can say. I would expect you would have figured this out by now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Maybe you should go back and read inh day one again, then.

I agree that for certain stretches of this game, his play could be described as more about survival than solving. That was a part of my own rationale when I was calling him a serial killer. I'm just trying to understand why that = town.

[Golden]

Maybe you should go back and read inh day one again, then.

I agree that for certain stretches of this game, his play could be described as more about survival than solving. That was a part of my own rationale when I was calling him a serial killer. I'm just trying to understand why that = town.

You are looking at what I'm trying to express all wrong. I didn't mean to say he was unhelpful on day one. I do think, however, you ascribe intentions to his posts in this game without considering the 'survivalist', explanation, in the past, and you'd do well to look at his posts again through the lens of survival.

I don't know how to help any more than I can. Maybe you'll have a lightbulb moment, maybe you won't, but I don't think I can do anything more to help you. It's best we move on.

Jay, why is MM not the serial killer?
MM, why is Jay not the serial killer?

[Golden]

By the way, I think survivalist and helpful can happen side by side.

You just didn't grow up with STV/RM sensibilities the way I did and maybe it makes it harder for you to see what I mean.

[Golden]

There is a difference between being helpful and 'helping you understand the game', too.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You are looking at what I'm trying to express all wrong. I didn't mean to say he was unhelpful on day one. I do think, however, you ascribe intentions to his posts in this game without considering the 'survivalist', explanation, in the past, and you'd do well to look at his posts again through the lens of survival.

I don't know how to help any more than I can. Maybe you'll have a lightbulb moment, maybe you won't, but I don't think I can do anything more to help you. It's best we move on.

I'm willing to listen. It's not that I am somewhat unsure what you're saying, it's that I haven't the slightest clue what you're saying. The best I can think of is that you're implying he is a power role or an important role otherwise, but I don't see a reason to confidently make that assumption. Show me the INH posts I have talked this phase about without that "survivalist" mindset, and explain why I should be viewing them that way.

Jay, why is MM not the serial killer?

I won't disqualify him from candidacy. My doubts about him as the SK stem from a few posts he made last day phase:

Vote Sloonei

why

Looking back at this day, Sloonei went from getting good vibes on Quin to bad in a 3 minute span, both after Quin said he was going to bed.

This happened after Jay shot down the case on me.

This happened while Sloonei had a few votes.

At the very end of the day, Marmot briefly moved his vote to Sloonei based on the above reasoning. The fact that he was still looking at Sloonei's ISO this late in the phase while Quin led the tally anyway suggests to me that he was genuinely looking for a serial killer.

Quin does not believe Golden has information on inh, and his reasons are sound. Golden observed that Quin himself might have an info role, and Quin suspects inh. I don't find this dubious.

It's not his reasons for believing that which I find suspicious. I agree with them. It's that he thinks Golden is faking information about INH -- but he still trusts Golden the most and INH the least. That doesn't make sense to me.

I could see a reason for it, perhaps. I've seen faked information before (I think Boomslang did it in the GoC?).

There is only one SK left presumably, so Quin doesn't have as much need to make such a dubious comment. You make a good argument.



Do you think this is the most suspicious thing you have seen today, or just the most recent?

I liked where his mind was at here. He was listening to my argument against Quin, but he was also wary that I was suffering from recency bias (and maybe I was).

There's more I could say but that's a start.

[Golden]

Anything more beyond what I've done would probably break the rules. I'm relying on you to try, if you can't get it I can't help and that's ok... I'm doing my best.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'd like to know how INH feels about this.

[Marmot]

Maybe you should go back and read inh day one again, then.

Based on what I've said, am I doing it correctly?

[Marmot]

Maybe you should go back and read inh day one again, then.

I agree that for certain stretches of this game, his play could be described as more about survival than solving. That was a part of my own rationale when I was calling him a serial killer. I'm just trying to understand why that = town.

You are looking at what I'm trying to express all wrong. I didn't mean to say he was unhelpful on day one. I do think, however, you ascribe intentions to his posts in this game without considering the 'survivalist', explanation, in the past, and you'd do well to look at his posts again through the lens of survival.

I don't know how to help any more than I can. Maybe you'll have a lightbulb moment, maybe you won't, but I don't think I can do anything more to help you. It's best we move on.

Jay, why is MM not the serial killer?
MM, why is Jay not the serial killer?

Jay has to be the SK. Unless inh has been bamboozled by you, there's no other way about it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

So you aren't concerned at all with either Golden or INH, MM?

[Golden]

Maybe you should go back and read inh day one again, then.

Based on what I've said, am I doing it correctly?

Possibly. Assuming I'm looking at the right things.

[insertnamehere]

I don't necessarily know if I'd call myself a "survivalist", but there have been one or two specific moments where I may or may not have deliberately refuted one or two assertations that may or may not have been true in order to protect myself from NK's.

It wasn't to hurt the civilians, that's for sure, and I've been genuine 99% of my posts.

Call it intuition, but this is probably the most important vote yet.

Presumably, we have this role line up:

Civilian 1
Civilian 2
Donald Trump
Serial Killer

Now, I know that I'm one of the first two. And I read Golden as civ, but I doubt he's Big T himself.

That leaves you and MM.

One of you is Trump.

One of you is the Serial Killer.

If we make the wrong decision, I very much doubt me or Golden will survive the night, and we enter into wacky 1 v 1 territory.

Also, G-Man has heavily implied that the Serial Killer's win condition relies upon Trump being dead.

So, if we choose the wrong person, the Serial Killer wins. I dunno if the SK's win con necessarily conflicts with the civ's, but I certainly don't want to risk it.

I guess what I'm trying to say here is, 3J, what's your read on MM?

And MM, what's your read on 3J?

Also, what's your stance on walls, immigrants, and taco bowls?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Okay, I think I was right about the civilian BTSC then. It's Marmot.

[Marmot]

So you aren't concerned at all with either Golden or INH, MM?

I'll get back to you on that. My current thoughts are that inh and Golden are both through-and-through town. Not because of BTSC though, mind you.

And I have an idea of why I'm still alive, I'm pretty good at fucking things up for town in LYLO.

Linki: I love immigrants and tacos. I dislike bowls and walls.

Linki x2: No, I think you're wrong about the BTSC.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Linki x2: No, I think you're wrong about the BTSC.

Maybe I am. What I do know is that they have a mutual total disinterest in lynching one another. You're what's left.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

VOTE METALMARSH89

[Marmot]

Vote JaggedJimmyJay

Linki: No U

[Marmot]

Jimmy, how do you feel about Golden and inh in this moment?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My concern about Golden, that he wanted to setup a LyLo phase alongside a voting ally in INH, is significantly less viable in a universe where INH treats Golden the same way. It's why I've been trying so hard to sort out their relationship on both sides. The only other possibility is that they're both bad, which means this game was never balanced in the first place (and I'd wonder why it isn't already over).

Truth be told I think Marmot has played a great game. But he's the only option left.

[insertnamehere]

Right now, I'm split 50/50 over which one of you two I think is bad.

[insertnamehere]

Nietzche memes are so versatile

[JaggedJimmyJay]

INH's last post here also clarifies a lot for me about what Golden has been talking about. I think I made an accurate, or at least near-accurate, assertion about their relationship, and INH refuted it anyway for the sake of avoiding a NK. That fits the "survivalism" mindset Golden is portraying and it allows the pieces to fall into place here.

[insertnamehere]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Given that MM is almost certainly the SK in this scenario, this means my night kill analysis method for serial killer hunting from Day 3 was effective (MM was a red there with INH) for the second time in two tries.

Granted in this case if it's always been about chasing Trump, that's probably just luck.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have to go for the time being. I'll be back later tonight.

[Marmot]

My concern about Golden, that he wanted to setup a LyLo phase alongside a voting ally in INH, is significantly less viable in a universe where INH treats Golden the same way. It's why I've been trying so hard to sort out their relationship on both sides. The only other possibility is that they're both bad, which means this game was never balanced in the first place (and I'd wonder why it isn't already over).

Truth be told I think Marmot has played a great game. But he's the only option left.

I believe this phase has become a Marmot vs. JaggedJimmyJay, as inh just stated.

If I was the SK, I would not have nightkilled Sloonei last night. The kill makes more sense for Jay than it does for me. If I nightkill Sloonei, I take out my top suspect and put myself in a position of necessary backtrack. If Jay kills Sloonei, he leaves myself alive and two civ-buddies. Generally speaking, I am an easier lynch target than Sloonei.

That said, it's still curious that Sloonei was nightkilled over inh or Golden. It is true that Sloonei had backed off of me towards the end of Day 4, but I almost certainly would have voted for Sloonei today if he was still alive.

[Marmot]

I've gotta run too, but I'll be around tomorrow (when the Bengals aren't playing).

[insertnamehere]

I also think Sloonei's NK was odd, considering he was my top SK candidate post Day 4 lynch.

The SK must be shaking their head right now...

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If I was the SK, I would not have nightkilled Sloonei last night. The kill makes more sense for Jay than it does for me. If I nightkill Sloonei, I take out my top suspect and put myself in a position of necessary backtrack.

This logic applies to everyone alive.

Voted Sloonei.

I think both him and Quin have cases directed at them with decent reasoning behind them, but I still see Sloonei as the SK more than I do Quin.

Plus, I don't like surprise lynching someone who made clear that they wouldn't be around at EoD.

My gut says sloonei is the right vote. it's where I'd vote in a vacuum.

Have you changed your mind?

Maybe. At the moment the two people I am most wary of are you and Golden.

Someone who suspected Sloonei killed Sloonei. Everyone is in the same "backtrack" position accordingly.

If Jay kills Sloonei, he leaves myself alive and two civ-buddies. Generally speaking, I am an easier lynch target than Sloonei.

This is where you've had to reach. If I kill MM, I leave Sloonei alive with two civ buddies (who both suspect him). The likelihood of Sloonei being lynched in that scenario is quite high. The same cannot be said in this scenario. We're in a 50/50 slugfest now, and there's no reason I'd have to put myself in that position. It's a bad play, and the only motive for it that I can think of is WIFOM.

You're the WIFOM bucket, not me.

That said, it's still curious that Sloonei was nightkilled over inh or Golden. It is true that Sloonei had backed off of me towards the end of Day 4, but I almost certainly would have voted for Sloonei today if he was still alive.

I know you would. If Sloonei was alive this phase, regardless of who is dead instead of him, he'd be the most likely lynch. The kill choice was a strange one, and I'd even say a bad one. That's why I didn't do it.

Besides, all of this "I wouldn't kill _____ because ______ scenario is unfavorable" stuff is moot in a universe in which the serial killer is trying to kill Donald Trump. If Sloonei was correct about that, then that's the only motive that matters. I don't struggle to believe that Marmot targeted Sloonei with the hopes of eliminating Trump, particularly given that it was Sloonei who was uncovering the details of that theory based upon G-Man's narratives.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Here's the most fundamental question I would ask everyone to consider when it comes to me as a serial killer.

I'm not mafia-aligned. That means that the mafia hunting efforts I have put in this game have been entirely genuine. I have made over 750 posts, while the second highest player has 272. I have played this game as hard as I possibly can because that's how I win with town factions in games where survival is not required. I haven't been remotely concerned with evading night kills from the mafia team, and if I was a serial killer that wouldn't be the case. I might still lead the game in posts (might), but I wouldn't triple everyone else. Even when you're JaggedJimmyJay, an LMS independent role demands some degree of restraint -- I have shown none of that. I have been going balls to the wall since the game began and at no point have I rested or slowed down.

That begs for night kills. Obviously it hasn't happened in this game, probably due at least in part to the fact that my reads were inconsistent.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Moreover, the fact that I opened this day in full-on tinfoil mode against Golden should be a good indicator. I don't have all the answers. I am trying the best I can to work out all of the details of this game using the methods I know and the limited information available to me. I have had to engage Golden and INH repeatedly over the course of multiple cycles to try to sort out their relationship, because that effort is crucial in process of elimination and in determining whether one of them is making a play.

I haven't been comfortable making assumptions that exonerate Golden (a reputed player who has beaten me as a replacement baddie in the past) or INH (a player I have been at odds with for most of the game). It should be expected that I am not going to let either of those players slip by without thoroughly challenging and investigating them to the best of my ability. And it wasn't until INH's commentary this day phase that I felt like there was sufficient reason to do that.

Marmot did not show the same kind of town paranoia. He already knows the answer.

[Marmot]

Here's the most fundamental question I would ask everyone to consider when it comes to me as a serial killer.

I'm not mafia-aligned. That means that the mafia hunting efforts I have put in this game have been entirely genuine. I have made over 750 posts, while the second highest player has 272. I have played this game as hard as I possibly can because that's how I win with town factions in games where survival is not required. I haven't been remotely concerned with evading night kills from the mafia team, and if I was a serial killer that wouldn't be the case. I might still lead the game in posts (might), but I wouldn't triple everyone else. Even when you're JaggedJimmyJay, an LMS independent role demands some degree of restraint -- I have shown none of that. I have been going balls to the wall since the game began and at no point have I rested or slowed down.

That begs for night kills. Obviously it hasn't happened in this game, probably due at least in part to the fact that my reads were inconsistent.

Ok Mr. WIFOM bucket. JaggedJimmyJay would not sow restraint if he was the SK huh? You say it is perhaps inconsistent reads? Well you also could control one of the nightkills.

This is possible the best mafia game I've ever played. I've helped lynch two of the members of mafia, and was the only person to vote for the third (even though I later townread him lol). I did it in under 300 posts. We are not lynching someone today based on their post count, so I don't see your point.