Lloyd Webber:Metalmarsh89 wrote:Jay! Call the last two members of each team GTH. Go!
(Possible NK'd members included).
Nijuu
neverwhere
Wildhorn:
MP/epi
Devin/Gumshoe/maybe daisy but i don't think so
Moderator: Community Team
Lloyd Webber:Metalmarsh89 wrote:Jay! Call the last two members of each team GTH. Go!
(Possible NK'd members included).
I know they're gut reads, but you should attempt to explain your misgivings about SD, Gumshoe, and myself. nutella too if you like, though she's already being discussed by many others.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Wildhorn:
Spacedaisy
JaggedJimmyJay
Webber:
Gumshoe
nutella
I decided to be bold and call splints a town read in my rainbow. I don't think there's a strong evidential basis for that, so it's just a behavioral judgment. I like the way she has responded to numerous accusations in recent phases and she seems to be conveying a good mindset for how her position as a potential lynchee might be a tool for mafia manipulation right now.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Who do you suppose fingersplints is?
I would be afeared if there were that many inactives out there in mafia.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
I'll be honest, I've forgotten about Epignosis. I'd still bet you he's not on Team Wildhorn though.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I realize I just GTH read Epignosis as town in my rainbow but I don't really know why. I'm going to make him/MP my top priority for being the next examinee.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
This is the night Scotty survived a spreadsheed mistake by Dom, right? Can you explain what you mean when you assert the flavor indicates no kill attempt? You seem to have a much better grip on the flavor side of this game than I do.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Tell me if you agree Jay.
Night 8, nobody died. According to the flavor, nobody even surived a nightkill. I believe this is because mafia was straight inactive that night. I looked back, and DFaraday did post on Night 8, so the possibility of him forgetting to submit his night action is slim.
But mafia did nightkill last night. I think that is especially incriminating against Spacedaisy, because she subbed in on Day 10. Also, the nightkill doesn't seem the most thoughtful of nightkills in my eyes. Canucklehead has not been the most active of players.
I just checked, and realized that you subbed in on Day 6, definitely discounting that you fit on Team Wildhorn. I am a bit wary about you (as I always am it seems), but you clearly don't fit into my theory.
Dom wrote:Lights up on a pub. Enter EPGINOSIS. He sits on a stool.
EPIGNOSIS: Barkeep?
Silence.
EPIGNOSIS: ...Hello?
Enter and exit multiple members of the ENSEMBLE
The lighting fixture above Epignosis sways, sways, and snaps, killing Epignosis.
Dom wrote:GOLDEN: Well... okay...
LIGHTS ON Blood Stained 1920's Car SL
GOLDEN: A car?
GOLDEN goes to fix the car. OPENING the hood, it is boobie trapped and he is shot in the chest.
Golden has died.
Dom wrote:Sloonei: Who is that guy? (aside)
SLOONEI sits on the floor. Silence. A pair of roller-skates with blades on them whiz by, only to just miss. ENTER two HOODED FIGURES. They shake hands, and ascend out.
SLOONEI exits SR.
Dom wrote:No one has been killed.
Dom wrote:A CHANDELIER FALLS ONTO FZ'S HEAD.
EXIT SINGERS.
ENTER BASS_THE_CLEVER
BASS sits on the apron of the stage CS.
ENTER CLYDE.
CLYDE: BANG BANG You're DEAD!
BASS falls off the apron, but survives the fall.
BASS: The show must go on...
EXIT all.
Dom wrote:SLOONEI TAKES CS
BONNIE SLAMS A CAR INTO HIM FROM SR
EXIT
Sloonei has been killed.
Dom wrote:ENTER TIMMER and SINGER
TIMMER: Why are you following me?
SINGER FOLLOWS HIM ONSTAGE
TIMMER RUNS UNTIL HE TRIPS OVER A ROPE ON THE STAGE, IT CATCHES HIS FOOT, HANGING HIM FROM A CHANDELIER.
Dom wrote:ENTER ENSEMBLE, DRESSED IN FUNERAL GARB. ONE BY ONE THEY DROP A FLOWER BEHIND A PLATFORM ON STAGE.
EPIGNOSIS: Man... it's a shame.
SVS: Scotty was a good man...
Dom wrote:SCOTTY: Oh.. wow.. that's... clich-
A CHANDELIER FALLS ON SCOTTY'S HEAD
THE SINGER RUNS OFF, WORRIED, SCARED, AND CONFUSED.
Dom wrote:ENTER CANUCK. SHE SITS CS. ENTER HOODED FIGURE. CANUCK HIDES FROM HOODED FIGURE.
HOODED FIGURE TOUCHES THE GROUND, TRAP DOOR OPENS, AND SLOONEI RISES.
BOTH EXIT.
CANUCK: What in the wo--
GUNSHOT.
CANUCK IS DEAD.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
I think I had this exact same point in my early ISO of him around Day 4, whenever I was silenced.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:A number of people including me have expressed some vague misgivings about DFaraday. So I'll look into him now.
This guy seems like a pretty no-nonsense type player. Almost every single one of his posts are directly relevant to game discussion. That's just an observation, it doesn't mean anything. Anyway, I highlight his third post here because it exemplifies that: he entered Day 1 with some immediate thoughts to share. The good thing here is that he took some real stances and made decently specific observations. This indicates to me that he was paying close attention to the content of other players more than to his own content: the mark of a townie. The only negative point to be made is that the four people he chose to comment on were perhaps the 4 most often discussed in the game to that point. His originality can be questioned.Spoiler: show
Here I would have to ask why you are so confident that TinyBubbles was town. I have had a lingering doubt in the back of my mind while on the sidelines about TinyBubbles being Jekyll & Hyde. I did end up feeling like there was a lot of questionable behavior in her posts, and the role description appeared in the OP shortly after her death, from what I remember. It's not too certain, but it's enough to plant seeds of doubt in my mind. I think I saw this discussed in a few places while I was gone, but I am not sure what anyone's general stance is right now. What do people think about the Jekyll & Hyde role?The night kill of Epignosis 1.0 seemed to be a hot topic on Day 2, probably because of Epi's small handful of significant suspicions and the implications associated with him in his death. DFaraday suggested it might have been an intentional frame job perpetrated by Cobalt to smear Long Con. This turned out to be exactly the opposite of the truth, but DF wasn't alone in that perspective. Faraday: I'd ask you if you could revisit your mindset from this early stage and explain why you felt it was Cobalt doing the framing rather than Cobalt being framed?Spoiler: show
One thing that interested me about DFaraday in the first half of his ISO is this progression in his read of TinyBubbles. We know now due to her Day 6 lynch that Bubbles was town, so it's especially important to verify the thought processes people displayed in this thread leading to her lynch to determine whether they were sincerely suspicious of her. I think there is some decently suspicious content here for Faraday. He played with a decent degree of thoroughness early in the game, so that he went for this Bubbles case and placed that vote on Day 3 is troubling -- especially because this was the phase in which sig was lynched. When Faraday placed his vote for Bubbles, it placed Bubbles in a 4-2 lead over sig (before the landslide eventually swept sig away). That's a pretty bad look.Spoiler: show
I do agree with this, however. I don't remember Faraday's case against Bubbles evolving into anything too substantial, but it could just be that he didn't express it.It can be forgiven if his case against Bubbles is significant enough to warrant his vote... but I don't see it. In fact -- there isn't a case at all. The only distinct negative comment Faraday made about Bubbles' content in this game was that very minor Day 1 "ping" at the top of this quote pile. Otherwise, the only things he says about her are either positive, or negative without any reason given. So, in a phase in which a mafia was eventually lynched, Faraday gave a confirmed townie a 4-2 tally lead over that mafia player without ever actually mounting any kind of case against her. Faraday is definitely going to need to answer to this.
I like where a lot of this is going. I snipped a random chunk of content to make this less big, not because I found it any less meaningful than the rest of the content here. Did Faraday respond to this ISO in any way? I will probably find it along the way, but I have other matters I want to tackle first, and it couldn't hurt to refresh the case against him right now.This is the second time I've seen Faraday refer to the LC/Golden "feud" as being a likely civilian versus civilian affair. This bugs me a little bit on two fronts: it is a subtle means of linking Golden with LC, and also it obviously serves as an indirect soft defense of confirmed mafia LC.Spoiler: show
This is somewhat curious treatment of G-Man on Day 4. It's decent enough that he placed his vote for a mafia player, but the progression here seems at least a little inconsistent. The first post asserts that G-Man has "no interest in defending himself", which in itself is really not a terribly scathing accusation. We've all seen townies do that many times I'm sure. The primary point of interest is that he said G-Man was at best an "unhelpful" civilian. So it's noteworthy then that in the next quoted post, he maintains his anti-G-Man stance despite calling his vote chart "helpful". "Helpful" is the opposite of "unhelpful", which was a key component of his prior accusation. So if that changed, I am curious why he didn't seem to budge at all in his stated suspicion (as he reiterated in the last quoted post).Spoiler: show
This is the phase in which Long Con (the mafia team of which G-Man was not a member) ended up lynched. DFaraday's vote for G-Man made it a 5-4 tally lead for LC -- quite close and still swingable into a G-Man lynch. I think there's valid reason to suspect based on the above that Faraday's suspicion of G-Man was somewhat disingenuous. That might indicate he was bussing G-Man to improve his credibility, or it might indicate he was protecting Long Con.
Either way, that's a bad look.
G-Man was eventually lynched the next day phase, but it was such an avalanche tally that it's really not possible to give anyone credit for it based on just their votes.
0 for 2.
DFaraday's rate of contribution has fallen off quite a lot in recent phases. I'll leave him to explain why. One troubling result of this is that his focus has been consistently narrowed. Over the last three day phases, he has said very little about any player other than the three in the above quote: Cobalt, Bass, and ninja. We already know two of them were town, and it's entirely plausible three of them were. Given the highly suspicious, easy nature of the Cobalt and Bass lynches and Faraday's lack of thoroughness as they were perpetrated, I view this with suspicion.
DFaraday's final votes for reference:
Day 1: S~V~S (2nd of 7)
Day 2: Cobalt (6th of 9)
Day 3: TinyBubbles (4th of 4)
Day 4: G-Man (4th of 6)
Day 5: G-Man (4th of 13)
Day 6: Black Rock (4th of 4)
Day 7: Black Rock (2nd of 7)
Day 8: No vote
Day 9: Bass_the_Clever (3rd of 6)
~~~
Overall, I think DFaraday plays a tight game. He conveys the right sort of pro-town persona. However, there is a significant amount of dirt I just dragged up without having to look very deep. He has 42 posts in this thread, and I still had all of those issues with his content. I think he's suspicious and will call him an anti-town read.
I encourage him to address my points. I'm always open to hear rebuttals.
The thread was dead, and I was trying to instigate discussion. I thought Hedgeowl was a decent lead, so I made a case on her. Some of the points I made were good, but some were a stretch (as Jay immediately pointed out).Spacedaisy wrote:MM, you are incriminating me based on Night 8? But reading that looks like a failed NK, not a missing NK. So how does this incriminate me for replacing an inactive player?
To those who are my fellow civs, lynching me is a bad idea. I am a civ and you don't want to lynch my role.
MM tell me why you explained away your Hedge case by claiming you were hoping to see someone come in and debunk it? Yet you did vote for her, which does not imply to me that you didn't believe your own case. Your conflicting statements make me seriously question how sincerely you are baddie hunting.
I have not yet read JJJ's ISO cases because I've been working on wedding stuff. I fully intend to read them before the poll end though, to make as informed a decision as I can. In the meantime my vote is going to you Marshy boy. I don't trust you this game, at all.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
I'll make an argument for it again here.Dom wrote:AND THEN....
DOM: REWRITE!!!!
Scotty is alive. To vote for him in this poll, you must both post in the thread and then PM me.
I made a mistake in my spread sheet that caused him to die, but he was not supposed to.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
I like and appreciate that she is actively promoting the case against her in the thread. Thank you ninja for not letting yourself slip back into the shadows. That said...nijuukyugou wrote:I don't want to quote Sloonei's entire case again because it was a real pain in the ass to format and re-format, but I will respond to points he brought up about me. For your convenience, his case can be re-read here for those of you who keep claiming you're going to "look up the case on Blooper again."
This whole paragraph set off every alarm I have. She first mentions that she's "not sure what team" I had her pegged on, but it was a fairly prominent point in my case that I had been working with the theory that she was a member of team Lloyd Webber, with sig and G-man. For her to express confusion over this point feels a bit like she is overreaching to dismiss the point. She then goes on to say that she can't be on that team because she "threw two teammates under the bus", which is both painting her behavior in a more favorable light than reality and creating a palpable layer of WIFOM. niju may very well have taken part in both lynches, she was 8th/11 and 12th/13 in their respective lynches, and I don't remember her being a driving force in either of those lynches, both of which were landslides by the time she cast her vote. So for her to dismiss the possibility by hinging on her track record as being too staunchly opposed to these players here is a bit misleading. And then she casts that layer of WIFOM by seemingly forgetting that bussing is a thing that frequently happens in mafia games. These would not be cruel, lazy, or poor team moves. She would have looked more suspicious for not following along at those points.Reading through this case, I'm not even sure what team Sloonei is trying to peg me on, because neither team makes any sense. He said my interactions with G-Man and sig "do not paint me in a favorable light." So if he's making the claim that I'm on Team Webber, then he's also asserting that I threw not one, but TWO teammates under the bus without even trying to defend them. I don't count giving G-Man, a player who just subbed in, one day's grace as a defense. Even the host gave that to him. I also don't count not mentioning sig except later in an unfavorable way as a defense. And I sure as shit don't count VOTING FOR TWO PEOPLE ON MY "SUPPOSED TEAM" as a good way to play mafia. It doesn't matter if they were later votes. It would still be two supposed teammates. That's poor, lazy, and cruel team playing, and I'm not any one of those things.
But here she acknowledges the possible strategy of bussing a teammate, when before it was not even something that crossed her mind. Regardless, I was never trying to peg niju on team Wildhorn.If he's trying to peg me on Team Wilhorn, that's also nonsensical. I made a crazy tie-up vote Day 1 for LC a) to amuse myself and b) because I (rightly) believed LC was bad. I would never throw a teammate under the bus on Day 1, especially with a vote that close. That's idiotic. AND I VOTED FOR HIM AGAIN because my mind did not change about him.
I had tunnel vision turned on, yes, but I think that can be a useful tool. When I say I am tunneling a person, I mean that I am looking at their posts specifically through the lens of them being scum. If I find the case believable, I follow up on it. I found this case believable. My point about sig, and the one which remains most relevant at this moment, as its still not been satisfactorily answered, is that nijuu, in a Day 1 post, said that she had "garnered some good reactions" with her vote for Long Con in a heavily contested poll. She would later claim, on Day 5, that one of those "good reactions" was her "first ping" on sig, but when looking back through the rest of her posts, there is very little evidence to suggest that she was suspicious of sig any point near that, and quite a bit of evidence to the contrary of this. That, coupled with her questionable behavior with the two lynched Lloyd Webber baddies, gives me a strong suspicion that she is the third member of their team.Sloonei himself admits to making this case with major tunnel vision turned on, and it looks like the logic sensor was turned off. One of his other major points is that I didn't mention enough suspicion of sig at the right time, and that sig's weird posts about me gave him pause. I've already addressed the first point. As for the second point, I will say it again as I said to Sloonei: this is precisely the kind of paranoid suspicion that sig was going for. He attempted to paint me in a bad light by lying about me (he said I switched up a vote when I haven't switched a vote all game, even since he was lynched), then buddy up as he was going down (and then buddy back down again) so I could look bad.
Listen to logic, people. If you've ever played on a team with me before, you know I'm not a lazy player (especially since I have a crapload of free time right now!) and I avoid throwing teammates under the bus as much as possible, at the cost of my own thread reputation. This case is nonsensical, and while Sloonei made it with good intentions for the civs, it's wrong. That's all I hope I have to say on that. I'm gonna have a look at people who are really, suddenly eager to get on this case without actually getting on it. I'll return later with thoughts.
Here are the sig posts in question, so that everyone may judge them for their self:JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Regarding the part I highlighted: please show me. You don't have to restate old defenses, but if you could refer me back to the point where you addressed this that'd be super. Otherwise, most of the points Sloonei makes about sig's commentary and then your responses must all be seen as speculative to anyone who is not either sig or you. However, you do provide an important example of sig attempting to smear you (by accusing you of some kind of bad vote switch that didn't happen).
Sloonei: what is your response to that specific point of defense by ninja?
In my experience, blendy Nutella almost always is a civ nutella. Reading back over her posts at first I felt unsure if I was seeing civ or baddie Nutella, but honestly, now that I have read them alli see the normal civ waffling that is characteristic of Nutella. I think that those voting her would do well to consider putting their votes somewhere else. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.nutella wrote:FZ. wrote: The two people that really caught my eye on day 1 were Nutella and Sig. They both seem like they're right in the middle of stuff, but are saying nothing. They feel like they are totally blending in and making others do the work for them. Anyone else noticed that?
I haven't been trying to blend in, but I will admit I do "make others do the work" to some extent because I'm not really the type to form big cases on my own, it's just not my style and I'm kinda too lazy/busy to put a lot of time into it. So I read the thread, assess others' suspicions and give my opinions on those, and give my opinions on any other players I've found fishy for whatever reason while reading. And often I don't really know what to think and my views flip and flop around, because in the end I don't have much of a clue who is bad. But I've tried to be as helpful as possible, keeping up with the thread and posting whenever I can, giving my input.
My strongest conviction right now is that Bass is bad. I really really think he is. He's my strongest suspicion, followed by LC at this point and Sig.
By that logic how do you know ANYONE has read anything? Your arguments here make no sense. Just because I said I wasn't going to read the stuff that happened before I joined doesnot mean I am not up to speed with what has been posted since I joined. I found the fact that it presented her voting record in a way that looked like a distancing teammate to be compelling yes. Also, you of all people should know, I don't spam post, I post when I have something to say.Metalmarsh89 wrote:The thread was dead, and I was trying to instigate discussion. I thought Hedgeowl was a decent lead, so I made a case on her. Some of the points I made were good, but some were a stretch (as Jay immediately pointed out).Spacedaisy wrote:MM, you are incriminating me based on Night 8? But reading that looks like a failed NK, not a missing NK. So how does this incriminate me for replacing an inactive player?
To those who are my fellow civs, lynching me is a bad idea. I am a civ and you don't want to lynch my role.
MM tell me why you explained away your Hedge case by claiming you were hoping to see someone come in and debunk it? Yet you did vote for her, which does not imply to me that you didn't believe your own case. Your conflicting statements make me seriously question how sincerely you are baddie hunting.
I have not yet read JJJ's ISO cases because I've been working on wedding stuff. I fully intend to read them before the poll end though, to make as informed a decision as I can. In the meantime my vote is going to you Marshy boy. I don't trust you this game, at all.
You came into the thread and said you found the cases that Epignosis and I made very compelling. Considering you hadn't posted in over 24 hours, nor did you have anything else to say except that you trust Golden, how do I know you even read the cases?
I appreciate you coming into the game to help Dom out, but that itself doesn't make you a civilian. Also, I've explained again and again that the flavor just doesn't match a nightkill attempt by Team Wildhorn, and in fact, doesn't even indicate a nightkill at all.
Sorry, but I believe you are a victim of circumstance.
If possible, DFaraday, could you recall who you thought was trying to save BR by pushing for Cobalt's lynch on this day? And why was Golden not "part of the plot"?DFaraday wrote:It makes it unlikely that you are on the team that tried to kill you. Although, I once hosted a game where a baddie team NKed their teammate Night 2, so I wouldn't put it past any Mafia team to fake a kill.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:i am sure this has been addressed already but: in a two-mafia-team game, how is it a relevant defense to survive a night kill?
I think Golden is probably not part of the plot, but I agree with Timmer that this sudden push for Cobalt, who's been on the backburner for days, is suspicious and comes across as a BR save. My thoughts on BR have not changed, aside from becoming even more suspicious of her, so I'll put my vote on BR for now.
*Votes BR*
If you think it's a failed nightkill, then whose nightkill failed? Every nightkill (failed or otherwise) has had some sort of explainable killer except for that one. Do you think Dom is just being inconsistent with the nightkills then? I've recognized and pointed out a pattern, and I will assume I am correct until someone gives me a convincing explanation that I am wrong about it.Spacedaisy wrote:By that logic how do you know ANYONE has read anything? Your arguments here make no sense. Just because I said I wasn't going to read the stuff that happened before I joined doesnot mean I am not up to speed with what has been posted since I joined. I found the fact that it presented her voting record in a way that looked like a distancing teammate to be compelling yes. Also, you of all people should know, I don't spam post, I post when I have something to say.Metalmarsh89 wrote:The thread was dead, and I was trying to instigate discussion. I thought Hedgeowl was a decent lead, so I made a case on her. Some of the points I made were good, but some were a stretch (as Jay immediately pointed out).Spacedaisy wrote:MM, you are incriminating me based on Night 8? But reading that looks like a failed NK, not a missing NK. So how does this incriminate me for replacing an inactive player?
To those who are my fellow civs, lynching me is a bad idea. I am a civ and you don't want to lynch my role.
MM tell me why you explained away your Hedge case by claiming you were hoping to see someone come in and debunk it? Yet you did vote for her, which does not imply to me that you didn't believe your own case. Your conflicting statements make me seriously question how sincerely you are baddie hunting.
I have not yet read JJJ's ISO cases because I've been working on wedding stuff. I fully intend to read them before the poll end though, to make as informed a decision as I can. In the meantime my vote is going to you Marshy boy. I don't trust you this game, at all.
You came into the thread and said you found the cases that Epignosis and I made very compelling. Considering you hadn't posted in over 24 hours, nor did you have anything else to say except that you trust Golden, how do I know you even read the cases?
I appreciate you coming into the game to help Dom out, but that itself doesn't make you a civilian. Also, I've explained again and again that the flavor just doesn't match a nightkill attempt by Team Wildhorn, and in fact, doesn't even indicate a nightkill at all.
Sorry, but I believe you are a victim of circumstance.
The only thing that I am a victim of is you taking the opportunity that my replacing in gives you for a easy lynch MM. You are bad, I feel very certain of it. I am a civ, but if I get lynched I should hope the civs are smart enough to look squarely at you next because you are very transparent in your intentions if you ask me.
You can explain all you want, but I think you are reaching because you want the civs looking at inactives in order to save your own hide. Reading that post very clearly looks like a failed night kill. Why is no one else totally questioning MM right now? I've been here for two daysand he looks so clearly bad, I'm shocked he is even still alive right now.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
Sloonei wrote:I wanted to produce a lot more content than I have today, but my day was longer and more tiring than I was anticipating, and I'm mostly asleep at this point. I'll hopefully get back at it tomorrow. In the meantime my suspicion remains most heavily on ninja, but I think nutella and DFaraday have been trending more downward than anyone else since the time that I left. Neverwhere is probably my strongest inactive scum read at the moment as well. I had a number of unanswered questions about her before she stepped away.
still reading things, but i don't have the focus or energy to produce any big casing posts tonight. maybe something will inspire me.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
Then you begin laying the groundwork for the idea that Night 8 was a missed kill...Metalmarsh89 wrote:Hedgeowl ISO for the win!!!!! (with lots of exclamations!) I'm just looking at interactions with/about Long Con and Black Rock.
Hedgeowl originally offers a no read of Long Con in response to Golden's question, with the reasoning that she can never tell very well with him. She also admitted to being sympathetic to LC for reasons that don't pertain to the game. This is very early in the game, so it's hard to tell if this indicates a baddie or civilian response. She did talk about SVS more in this post than LC, though Hedgeowl would later go on to vote for Long Con.
Still no read of LC here, and Hedgeowl states that Epignosis's comments about SVS are noteworthy (she likes them?).Spoiler: show
Hedgeowl comments on Cobalt's vote, calling it unsurprising. This is Hedgeowl's first mention of Cobalt, and had not interacted with him before. Keep this in mind.Spoiler: show
Hedgeowl places her vote on Day 1 in the final minutes.Spoiler: show
This vote looks good at first, because it was a vote on LC to tie him with SVS for the lead (I think). But not long after, LC swoops in to put SVS ahead. Sure LC may have voted for self-preservation, but looking at Hedgeowl's vote, I don't think it's as sincere as it seems. I understand backing off of SVS, but Hedgeowl had offered no suspicion of LC to this point. She offered no read of him at one point, and sympathized with him in another post. She hadn't stated a suspicion of Cobalt either, but at from her posts, I believe she should have been more prone to vote Cobalt.Spoiler: show
This move may have a calculated one to give Hedgeowl a good look.
Hedgeowl comments on Day 2 that she doesn't like Cobalt's antics, but doesn't seem to want to touch the Cobalt-LC relationship.
Spoiler: show
Day4, Hedgeowl states she is still catching up, and still plans to read about the LC-Cobalt relationship. She includes that she is finding LC increasingly less suspicious as she goes.
The very next day, Hedgeowl reads LC as a frustrated civ, but a civilian nonetheless.Spoiler: show
But 20 minutes later, Hedgeowl backtracks and votes LC. LC was lynched this day, but he held a 10-6 lead over G-Man at the time of her vote. That's not insurmountable, but still a wide margin, giving her vote less credit.Spoiler: show
Hedgeowl comments on BR. Not much of a comment, just says she doesn't believe she would defend LC being his spouse.Spoiler: show
On Day 7, the day BR was lynched, Hedgeowl votes nutella, but does comment after the lynch about BR, and directs attention towards nutella.Spoiler: show
This is Hedgeowl's most recent post, coming during Night 7. This is the part I find most suspicious. Hedgeowl said she was going out of town for 10 days, but look at the other parts of this scenario.Spoiler: show
- - Black Rock is lynched Day 7, and Team Wildhorn missed the Night 8 kill.
- Black Rock and Long Con have both been lynched, possibly disheartening a mafia team to have multiple excellent teammates go down.
- Hedgeowl says she will be out of town and will have internet, but has not posted since then.Spoiler: show
I think Hedgeowl could be a member of Team Wildhorn.
Then you voted hedge. After her flip you said:Metalmarsh89 wrote:I do not. Well I will admit I could be wrong, but, for example, SVS has voted nijuu each of the last three days (including very early on today) which does line up with Jekyll and Hyde's role, and with the way things look, makes nijuu a likely target for J&H. I won't dismiss the TinyBubbles being Jekyll theory, because I understand that if it's true, someone else must be the real Sweeney Todd, and that is still a possibility. I just think that, regardless of my early theory of the LC/TB relationship, that TinyBubbles is a civilian. Also of note, Sweeney Todd gets one nightkill in the game. The fact that G-Man was not nightkilled before his lynch leads me to believe that Sweeney Todd is either an inactive player, or a relatively new player like TinyBubbles who may not feel comfortable pulling the trigger on a nightkill.Golden wrote:Are you suggesting that you do not believe bubbles is jekyll? I've been trying to figure this one out for ages.Metalmarsh89 wrote:What confuses me more about Team Wildhorn's missed kills is that I believe that it seems to me that Jekyll & Hyde has still been targeting players.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Also, the attempt to nightkill Bass on Night 5 is confusing. I don't think that Team Wildhorn could kill on odd nights.
All of the baddies' kills so far have had some obvious flavor to them. Thus, I am more inclined to believe that the kill of Scotty did not come from a baddie team, nor may have it even come from another player. It could even have been role-related on his part.Golden wrote:I am very much liking the cases MM and Epi have brought on hedgeowl.
If I understand MM correctly, hedge could not be jekyll? Because jekyll is active?
In which case, it should also be possible to test if hedge is B & C by way of checking when she left and not been back since. (I tend to think the unknown force could be Mr Hyde? So I'm not assuming wildhorn missed a kill - but I could well be wrong about that, I understand why 'unknown force' might sound more like a civilian ninja or independent role).
Not to discredit DF too much, but TGG left on weird terms, and may even had suggested to his teammates to throw him under the bus.Golden wrote:I just read DF back, and I no longer think he could be on team webber. He was one of the first people to agree with my case on TGG, and was pretty consistent about it. Even before G-Man subbed in.
I also do not think he could be on team wildhorn with either FS or hedge, because those happen to have been two of his more consistent suspects. His voting for BR looks good too. I think he could be on team wildhorn, but I'd have him below splints and hedge on my radar, and I'm trying to figure out who is on team webber! Where are Webber and the Phantom hiding?
You didn't feel super compelled by it? Really? Despite coming in all, Hedge ISO for the win! Exclamation point! Could have fooled me. And you here make it look like you were trying to lure out mafia members, but it seems a foolish plan to me to put a vote on someone you apparently weren't super compelled to believe was bad and we're just using as mafia bait.Metalmarsh89 wrote:I didn't feel super compelled by the case, but there were couple things that I saw. I'll admit that I did try to fit it all into my theory.
But this game has fallen into a rut, and I think you will have noticed it too, and I was just looking for something to spark discussion. Anything. I thought about looking at Team Webber, who has been more active, but I figured it would be easier to look at Team Wildhorn, and see how the active member(s) of Team Webber respond.
Convenient. You find everyone who voted the same way you did as probably bad. But not you, oh no, nothing to see here, move along folks. Then there is this little gem:Metalmarsh89 wrote:Pretty much everyone that came in and stated "Wowie, these cases are so compelling, I can't even decide who to vote for between splints and Hedgeowl!"JaggedJimmyJay wrote:A few people joined your cause soon after you mounted the case. Who among them do you feel was the least sincere in doing so? If you're town (or even anti-town on a team other than Windhorn), then someone out there capitalized on you being wrong.Metalmarsh89 wrote:I didn't feel super compelled by the case, but there were couple things that I saw. I'll admit that I did try to fit it all into my theory.
But this game has fallen into a rut, and I think you will have noticed it too, and I was just looking for something to spark discussion. Anything. I thought about looking at Team Webber, who has been more active, but I figured it would be easier to look at Team Wildhorn, and see how the active member(s) of Team Webber respond.
I was surprised to see nutella claim that she and Hedgeowl were on Team Wildhorn with certainty. I didn't know there was reason to believe fingersplints was on that team. And then nutella didn't even vote.
Spacedaisy, well you already pointed her comments out. She just hopped in the game, and that post was her only post in the last 30 hours.
I don't see any reason to suspect Golden. Or rather, I see plenty of reason not to suspect Golden, and I haven't bothered considering him as a mafia.
Nice how you set me up to take the fall for what was going to come. You set the stage for exactly what you knew was going to happen, and then when it did, you have been dancing around like it proved something. Good luck explaining your way out of it when I flip civ.Metalmarsh89 wrote:One important thing I intentionally left out of my original theory of Team Wildhorn that no one caught: I did not include any players that replaced in later in the game. This would include you JJJ, Spacedaisy, and SVS, but you were silenced, SVS wasn't around all day, but then there is Spacedaisy, who stated that the cases were "pretty compelling". If there's a nightkill tonight, I'd bet it's coming from her.
Now lastly, regarding this theory of yours that there is a difference in the night kills, I see a major flaw with this. Night 2, a chandelier. Night 4, a chandelier. Night 6, a chandelier. Night 8, what do you know? A chandelier... It looks like the same team to me MM, and the only reason I can think you want to make something that seems so blatantly obvious to me look like something other than what it most likely was, is because you want to direct attention to inactives, specifically, inactives who have recently been replaced. You set the stage, giving us the narrative before it happened. I can see through it because I recognize I'm the pawn in your power play here. I am civ, lunching me will prove that. And I have yelled loud enough that I hope should they be foolish enough to follow you in this bid to lynch me, that they will at least be convinced by my flip to lynch you next. You are bad. My vote will almost certainly remain where it is until the poll ends. I hope others will see through you as well.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Unless there's anything else you wish to talk about Golden, I don't plan on doing any more game-related stuff this night phase. I'll be gone all day tomorrow camping, so I'll just hold off until Sunday if I'm still alive and not silenced.
JJJ was right though. I forced some points on the Hedgeowl case, so I take full responsibility for her lynch. I was just hoping someone would come in and tell me it was bullshit. Nobody did. My apologies to Hedgeowl.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
In the link I provided in the previous post, I quoted all of the nightkills from Dom. The only thing I had chopped from the original posts were the SINGER's songs.Spacedaisy wrote:I'm trying to read through Dom's posts to try and make sure I am understanding them correctly not just based on MM's own recap of them and I find it thoroughly confusing right now. I am having a very hard time telling what is a day post what is a night post and what number they are. If I have misunderstood something in that, please feel free to correct me.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
Do you care to comment on any of the votes that have been cast against you?nutella wrote:Hmm thanks for the insight on MM, Daisy. You've drawn attention to some weird behavior that I wouldn't have caught otherwise. I look forward to his response.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
nijuukyugou. But, as that is highly unlikely to happen, i can also possibly get behind Nutella, DFaraday, or Neverwhere. The state of inactivity has left us in an undesirable positionMetalmarsh89 wrote:Sloonei, who do you want to lynch today?
I already commented on the first two, and I don't think I'm going to get an explanation from Golden.Sloonei wrote:Do you care to comment on any of the votes that have been cast against you?nutella wrote:Hmm thanks for the insight on MM, Daisy. You've drawn attention to some weird behavior that I wouldn't have caught otherwise. I look forward to his response.
What about other things? How do you feel about possibly being lynched? Who are your suspects? If you've got a rainbow in you that would he nicenutella wrote:I already commented on the first two, and I don't think I'm going to get an explanation from Golden.Sloonei wrote:Do you care to comment on any of the votes that have been cast against you?nutella wrote:Hmm thanks for the insight on MM, Daisy. You've drawn attention to some weird behavior that I wouldn't have caught otherwise. I look forward to his response.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:To not use your vote strategically. It isn't vacant of value right now even if it might not be your final choice.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Linki: What's a wasted opportunity?
Split infinitive!JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Look at me, capitalizing sentences (and fragments) like a real boy.
Gumshoe hasn't posted since Night 1. What warrants his place in your top six?nutella wrote:Sloonei
Golden
JJJ
SVS
Spacedaisy
Gumshoe
Niju (putting her in the middle because I was suspicious of her but am inclined to trust Golden and can see her as civ)
Devin
Epignosis
Metalmarsh
Neverwhere
DFaraday
Fingersplints