Guess Who? Mafia

[nijuukyugou]

That was easy. I like this:

Reading back further, the case that was brought out about DDL specifically mentioning that there would be a potential modkill of MP just adds to that. And Daisy suggested that MP should be given at least a day to get settled in, as well, so both of our baddies didn't seem to like the idea of people voting for MP. This may be enough for me to vote him today.

as well as the other supporting points about MP (basically I'm seeing the same thing being said regarding defense of inactives and MP being inactive, etc.). I'll go ahead and vote that way, too.

[Epignosis]

That was easy. I like this:

Reading back further, the case that was brought out about DDL specifically mentioning that there would be a potential modkill of MP just adds to that. And Daisy suggested that MP should be given at least a day to get settled in, as well, so both of our baddies didn't seem to like the idea of people voting for MP. This may be enough for me to vote him today.

as well as the other supporting points about MP (basically I'm seeing the same thing being said regarding defense of inactives and MP being inactive, etc.). I'll go ahead and vote that way, too.

I wrote the original piece on Missing Person. You should be liking what I said.

[nijuukyugou]

Epi's post is adequate. It'll do.

[Epignosis]

It'll do.

That's what she said.

[Black Rock]

I voted for Llama. There are good points raised against Missing Person and he could be Mafia. My gut says Llama and I would like to follow it.

[Marmot]

Baddie moves are bad.

Nice drive by vote MM.

No way. I think you're bad.

[Epignosis]

You do?

I don't.

[Marmot]

You do?

I don't.

Why not?

[Roxy]

Baddie moves are bad.

Nice drive by vote MM.

No way. I think you're bad.

Oh yea that reasoning is so spectacular
really, you have not said anything for me to defend. Feels much more like a No u.

[Marmot]

Baddie moves are bad.

Nice drive by vote MM.

No way. I think you're bad.

Oh yea that reasoning is so spectacular
really, you have not said anything for me to defend. Feels much more like a No u.

Right back at you. Why was I bad? Because I didn't self-vote three days ago?

[thellama73]

[Epignosis]

You do?

I don't.

Why not?

It's funny to me that you want reasons after you voted. Next time, maybe you'll discuss things before you vote, yeah?

But since you asked me a question:

I appreciated her assessment of me. An evil Roxy would try to crucify me if she thought I was wrong on something. And even though we disagree philosophically about low/non-posters, she's been (irritatingly) consistent on her stance.

So even if Missing Person is bad, I don't think Roxy is bad.

[thellama73]

I also don't think Roxy is very bad. I believe I am seeing Civ Roxy today.

[thellama73]

Anyone think Hedgebaddie will make the vote today?

[Epignosis]

Anyone think Hedgebaddie will make the vote today?

I'm going with "No."

[Elohcin]

Missing Person has lived up to his name and has been put down today. He was civilian. It is now Night 4. You have 23 hours to send in your PMs.

[thellama73]

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

[Roxy]

Wow that sucks but NOT unexpected, I will be noting who has voted both times in the low poster/inactive civ lynches.

[Roxy]

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

Oh yes use the strategy that worked so well for you in the last 2 low poster lynches.

[thellama73]

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

Oh yes use the strategy that worked so well for you in the last 2 low poster lynches.

Gambler's fallacy.

[thellama73]

The last time you lynched me in a game, Roxy, I was a civilian. Does that make me more likely to be a civilian this game too?

[Hedgeowl]

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

I am basically a mafia fail right now. We are leaving for 10 days tomorrow to Wisconsin and I have been working like crazy to get us all ready. Plus have an all day workshop today and tomorrow. I apologize to everyone and Elo for my total not cutting it this game. I dont think its going to get any better on vacation since we will be with a lot of family all week long.

[Hedgeowl]

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

Oh yes use the strategy that worked so well for you in the last 2 low poster lynches.

Gambler's fallacy.

Oh please, I havent even read the thread from last lynch and I can tell you're bad. You're going for the low hanging fruit apparently, conveniently using the Hedgebaddie nickname once again, but actually targeting me as if that makes it some how legitimate and your vote for BR last lynch was so slim shady Eminem was embarrassed for you. Just looking at the poll, you can take no credit for lynching daisy and tied up BR when daisy had two votes.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I lol'd.

[Hedgeowl]

[thellama73]

Good thing I don't have to worry about you voting for me then, O for Four.

[Hedgeowl]

Good thing I don't have to worry about you voting for me then, O for Four.

I'll think about making an exception for my good friend rama llama baddie-dingdong.

[Black Rock]

I'm liking Hedgeowls style here. I wouldn't mind seeing a Llama lynch.

[thellama73]

Yes, yes, three people keep saying they wouldn't mind seeing me lynched, but there has been very little talk of why. You don't like that I like to lynch non-participants, you don't like that I am a bit flippant, I get it. Those are emotional responses, not good reasons for a lynch.

[Hedgeowl]

Yes, yes, three people keep saying they wouldn't mind seeing me lynched, but there has been very little talk of why. You don't like that I like to lynch non-participants, you don't like that I am a bit flippant, I get it. Those are emotional responses, not good reasons for a lynch.

If there are three of us, then I'll be interested to see which one of us you decide to kill tonight sir!

[G-Man]

Dear Living Players,

Sorry I didn't write to you during the last day phase. Ricochet and I were working on another comedy bit. I think the classic rock fans are really going to like this one.



We hoped to try that one out on Missing Person but when he showed up, he just crashed on the loveseat. Needless to say, we're starting to run out of useable furniture.

Fingersplints has really helped bridge the gap between our two camps. I think Spacedaisy appreciates having another woman here. Dragon is slowly warming up to the idea of rehearsing a one-act play. If we get one more woman in here and can convince TurnipHead and Missing Person to get on their feet, we could even do one of my favorites- Agatha Christie's The Mousetrap. Who doesn't like a murder mystery?

Until next time,

-G

[Marmot]

Thanks G-Man! We need a new socky award next year for the best dead poster.

[Marmot]

Posting this for public assistance.

Black Rock - posts
Dragon D. Luffy - posts
Epignosis - posts
fingersplints - posts
G-Man - posts
Golden - posts
Hedgeowl - posts
Metalmarsh89 - posts
Missing Person - posts
nijuukyugou - posts
Ricohet - posts
Roxy - posts
Spacedaisy - posts
thellama73 - posts
timmer - posts
Turnip Head - posts

[Ricochet]

The only play I ever participated in was a Nativity one. I think I was an archangel (don't ask me what he was doing there, take it up with the director ). The girl I wanted to [REDACTED] back then was playing the Virgin Mary.

It was in elementary school.

linki: AHEM

[Marmot]

The only play I ever participated in was a Nativity one. I think I was an archangel (don't ask me what he was doing there, take it up with the director ). The girl I wanted to [REDACTED] back then was playing the Virgin Mary.

It was in elementary school.

linki: AHEM

Oh look at that. Thanks Rico!

[Marmot]

Time for a few ISO's as time permits. I'll start with Black Rock.



Her first on-topic post was a vote for Turnip Head, which she forgot to do originally, so came back to place later on.

Spoiler: show

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

Why would that piss everyone off?

People hate when I vote for non-participants or people who "have not had the chance to defend themselves."

Turnip Head has been absent in several games though, so I think this is a different situation.

I agree and am also going to vote for Turnip Head.

I voted TH, meant to do it earlier but forgot.

BR comes offers a light defense of DDL with this mention of Missing Person, trying to include them both in the same context. DDL flipping mafia and Missing Person flipping civilian make this post of hers look worse.

Spoiler: show

RIP TH. "Turnip Head has been put down" sounds way more intense than it actually is.

I have conflicted feelings about that. Would have been better if we caught a mafia, but I do agree with the sentiment that inactive civilians make the game harder for the civs.

The other interesting thing is that, in a game with no roles, it almost sounds like there was a tie between DDL and TH. I wonder if there could have been an extra vote going on somewhere in there?

Interesting you would focus on DDL and ignore Missing Person was also mentioned in the same context. I don't think it was a tie as much as story telling.

BR defends and accusation from DDL. On the surface this looks good, but DDL was close to being lynched on Day 1 (and BR even voted TH to break a 2-2 tie with DDL), and so this could easily be a distancing tactic. I noticed that BR state she saw no other player suspicious at the time of her vote, but as I pointed out above, her first on topic post of the game was her "vote" for TH, so she wasn't even trying to find suspicion.

Spoiler: show

Bummer. That was some really solid play you were making here, Ricochet. Hope I play again with you some time.

I'm reading through day 1 posts and BR's ones caught my attention. It feels to me her vote on TH was pretty oportunistic. She only agreed with what splints said then jumped on the wagon later in the phase, after waiting for two players to do it first. And did not say much more. I'm leaning mafia on her.

TBH it was opportunistic and a little frustration with TH atm. It was day 1 none of you really look that suspicious and so I voted for a non-player. He is a non-player and I don't think he would have ever showed up. I actually wasn't waiting for more people to do it. I didn't have to wait for other players to do it at all, I was already taking an easy way out.

BR votes for Daisy Day 3, but this should not be surprising. At the time of her vote, Daisy was leading the lynch over BR 3-2, so self-preservation was the obvious goal, mafia or otherwise.

Spoiler: show

I voted for Daisy because I want to live.

This is the first post BR makes that gives me good feelings about her. She finally decides to take the lead and pursue some other leads even while she was taking heat. Based on her last post ([url=http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 97#p156788]a reaction to Daisy's lynch[/url), BR took about 30 minutes to make the below post, so it appears legitimate and not preplanned.

Spoiler: show

With this lynch I will be looking at nijuukyugou, thellama73, Golden, and Epignosis for the last two mafia members. I feel as the lynch was going and how easily it could have switched to me that at least one team member voted for me and maybe the other one voted off. Looking at the votes I would say Golden is the least likely to be her teammate. He voted later and not for me to try and save Daisy. She also wanted to point her finger his way. I feel like she still felt she had a chance at that point. Unless it was a big wifom and they had already decided to let her be lynched. I just don't believe that is the case at this point. I could have just as easily been lynched this time around and I believe Golden would have voted me if he was her teammate.

Llama completely misinterpreted my posts and instead of quoting that particular post he decided to refer to it with a completely false statement. This could have led someone who was not paying attention to believe that I had actually defended DDL instead of the actual truth, which was a misunderstanding between me and Golden over a host edited post.

Two baddies left and Llama is at the top of my list followed by Epig and blooper.

Epignosis mentioned it too, but BR has turned her tunnel vision on a bit, and this while she is accusing Epignosis of being close-minded.

Spoiler: show

Black Rock, can you state a reason for your suspicion of Epignosis other than his vote which appears to be coincidental?

His vote is coincidental, anything else revolves around is close-mindedness concerning me. I'm not sure if that makes him bad but he looks more bad than other players right now.

Epignosis is one player that you can throw conventional baddie teamplay out the window when you inspect his votes. On top of that, the lynch was still wide open when he voted.

It's true, he prides himself on being unpredictable. If Blooper is not the baddie, he probably is. Unless one of her teammates voted earlier for her in hopes that every one else would pile on me. It's not a perfect evaluation but I bet Llama or Blooper is her teammate. Llama looks really bad in my eyes right now.

BR doesn't look good early on, but she has looked better over the past day or so.

[thellama73]

Three people want me dead. Likely only one of them is bad. I'm pretty sure it isn't Roxy, so that leaves BR and Hedgebaddie.

I actually feel a little better about Hedgebaddie since she started posting, but on the other hand she has participated for the first time ONLY after I straight up threatened to vote for her, which looks bad to me. Also, her name is a dead giveaway.
I still think Black Rock looks pretty bad too, so I will have to choose between one of them tomorrow.

[Black Rock]

Yes, yes, three people keep saying they wouldn't mind seeing me lynched, but there has been very little talk of why. You don't like that I like to lynch non-participants, you don't like that I am a bit flippant, I get it. Those are emotional responses, not good reasons for a lynch.

That is not my reasoning at all. Looking over votes and posts I think you are most likely to be bad.

[Marmot]

Three people want me dead. Likely only one of them is bad. I'm pretty sure it isn't Roxy, so that leaves BR and Hedgebaddie.

I actually feel a little better about Hedgebaddie since she started posting, but on the other hand she has participated for the first time ONLY after I straight up threatened to vote for her, which looks bad to me. Also, her name is a dead giveaway.
I still think Black Rock looks pretty bad too, so I will have to choose between one of them tomorrow.

I suppose you are right.

There is a 50.0% chance that one baddie wants you dead and one doesn't.
There is a 41.7% chance that both baddies are in the group of 6 that do not suspect you.
There is a 8.3% chance that both baddies want you dead.

You must be a civilian right? There is a 20% chance that you are mafia and 80% chance you are not. The odds are in your favor.

[thellama73]

Three people want me dead. Likely only one of them is bad. I'm pretty sure it isn't Roxy, so that leaves BR and Hedgebaddie.

I actually feel a little better about Hedgebaddie since she started posting, but on the other hand she has participated for the first time ONLY after I straight up threatened to vote for her, which looks bad to me. Also, her name is a dead giveaway.
I still think Black Rock looks pretty bad too, so I will have to choose between one of them tomorrow.

I suppose you are right.

There is a 50.0% chance that one baddie wants you dead and one doesn't.
There is a 41.7% chance that both baddies are in the group of 6 that do not suspect you.
There is a 8.3% chance that both baddies want you dead.

You must be a civilian right? There is a 20% chance that you are mafia and 80% chance you are not. The odds are in your favor.

I don't think it makes sense to apply probability to non-random events, like whether or not someone wants me dead, but if that is your support, I will take it!

[Roxy]

Metalmarsh your maths leave something to be desired.

When did you suddenly start posting statistics MM?
Why did you only do an ISO on BR? Are you trying to keep the focus soley on her?
What up with that?

[Elohcin]

Hey People! You have a little over 2 hours to send in your PMs.

[Marmot]

Three people want me dead. Likely only one of them is bad. I'm pretty sure it isn't Roxy, so that leaves BR and Hedgebaddie.

I actually feel a little better about Hedgebaddie since she started posting, but on the other hand she has participated for the first time ONLY after I straight up threatened to vote for her, which looks bad to me. Also, her name is a dead giveaway.
I still think Black Rock looks pretty bad too, so I will have to choose between one of them tomorrow.

I suppose you are right.

There is a 50.0% chance that one baddie wants you dead and one doesn't.
There is a 41.7% chance that both baddies are in the group of 6 that do not suspect you.
There is a 8.3% chance that both baddies want you dead.

You must be a civilian right? There is a 20% chance that you are mafia and 80% chance you are not. The odds are in your favor.

I don't think it makes sense to apply probability to non-random events, like whether or not someone wants me dead, but if that is your support, I will take it!

You said it is likely that someone who wants you dead is a baddie. By definition, you are evoking probability.

Your case no longer makes sense.

[Marmot]

Metalmarsh your maths leave something to be desired.

When did you suddenly start posting statistics MM?

Because llama was talking about what is likely.

Why did you only do an ISO on BR? Are you trying to keep the focus soley on her?

No. I said at the beginning that I want to do ISO's as time permits. I have been on vacation with my family for the last 1.5 weeks, so I've rarely had the chance to sit down for more than a few minutes at a time. Black Rock comes first in the alphabet.

What up with that?

Are you making fun of my hat?

[Roxy]

[Roxy]

vacation sounds cool, are you camping?

[Elohcin]

Roxy has been put down by the Mafia. It is now Day 5.

[Golden]

RIP Roxy, I'm glad you came back from break for this one.

I think MM and llama are the last two. I've thought a bit about MM and I now think Daisy was bussed, there is enough to suggest that Daisy probably knew she would be caught for saving DDL if DDL was lynched, so from daisy's weird vote for me on day two onwards I think her behaviour and MM's was about getting MM a bit of cred back.

[Roxy]

How rude!

Gman and Ricochet sure have left a funky smell in here...only one way to cover it

[Marmot]

vacation sounds cool, are you camping?

Nope, a resort in Florida. Not my idea for a vacation, but at least I get to hang out with my family since I only see them twice or so a year.

Annd RIP Roxy.