Large post incoming. I hate to do it but I have a lot to say.
MovingPictures07 wrote:1) When asked to provide a read of Elo, Turnip Head said he couldn't quite yet. That is uncharacteristically unlike Turnip Head, who prides himself on being able to read Elo better than most anyone else. If Elo were to flip mafia, this is noteworthy.
You're right MP, I do pride myself on my ability to read Elo. In fact, I believe I was 100% right about her in every game, until this happened in the last Heist game (which I didn't play):
Turnip Head wrote:Subject: Home Alone [Day 3]
Elohcin wrote:This is so stupid. I was being so helpful, active, and I still get looked at like I'm a baddie. I am convinced that no matter what I do in a mafia game, I will be looked at as a baddie. Whatever. Who cares anymore. Cause I know others will follow LC and Drac on this. It's how it goes for me. I seriously may stop playing mafia b/c the only way I can last a good length of time in a game is by not saying much at all. Then I eventually get lynched for not saying much at all. I need to leave the syndicate as Elohcin and change my name then come back and have no one know who I am. I think that's the only way I an get you all to stop suspecting me for stupid crap. *throws hands up in the air*
I wish I was playing Elo, I think you're civvie and it frustrates me when people suspect you all the time!
Elohcin wrote: You're always kind to me. I appreciate you sweet words.
Epignosis wrote:The Wet Bandits, Harry Lime and Marv Merchants, have taken over the house, and they're gonna snap off your cajones and boil them in motor oil!
Turnip Head wrote:Elo
You tricked me! I thought you were civ for sure! Well played
and I'll remember not to trust my read of you in the future
I think it's safe to say that Elo has switched up her game enough in these Heists that I don't currently know how to read her
Maybe I'll get better, but I'm not trusting anything at the moment.
MovingPictures07 wrote:2) Turnip Head really pushed forward discussion regarding the kill. IMO, Turnip Head is the only other player here besides myself and maybe DrWilgy (and lovedelic?) that has more exposure to this kind of game setup, since they're still relatively new here at The Syndicate.
I could see Turnip Head setting up this exact scenario:
Killing zebra N1, then denouncing it multiple times in thread the following day (the mafia are "jerks"), as well as saying he didn't understand why, then requesting the SHC strategy from me (and in the event he didn't get it, pushing it harder than he did his own post of it). Then he later "realizes" that DrWilgy should have been the one who was killed last night, thinks that DrWilgy may be the cop as a result, but doesn't say that and instead pushes the alternate explanation that Wilgy is a mafia member who is lying about his peek, and pushes his lynch as a way to eliminate his strongest cop suspect.
Anyway, I recognize this is some pretty tinfoily stuff, so I'm not letting it influence my rainbow for now. Nonetheless, I wanted to throw it out there because it crossed my mind more than once, especially with folks suspecting Elo. This is another reason I didn't feel comfortable continuing my fake cover of Elo and G-Man.
I'm fine with you tinfoiling me, but keep it at the tinfoil level. All I'm trying to do is solve the game, and without anyone trying to discuss much of anything, I stand out like a sore thumb. It would be pretty ballsy of me to make such a kill and then try to steer discussion around it if I didn't have to do so. And this is WIFOM, but I wouldn't have killed Zeebs Night 1, I just watched her die Night 1 in the game I hosted and I was sad she didn't get to play longer. I'd appreciate it if you took my words at face value and thusly gave me your thoughts regarding my theory, but maybe that's too much to ask.
MovingPictures07 wrote:To answer Daisy's concern, I put Elohcin and G-Man in blue because they are my Night 0 and Night 1 peeks respectively (Blue means confirmed civilian, as opposed to just a high civilian read, hence why I put myself in there).
With that said, I'm willing to blow my shitty cover and reveal that I do NOT have a confirmed check on Elohcin or G-Man. I notice players are suspecting Elohcin. I am absolutely terrible at reading her, but I have enough of my own doubts, and I don't want to continue my ruse to dissuade anyone who really feels she is worthy of voting today from doing so, based on no actual information.
If you're terrible at reading Elo, why did you pick her as your N1 peek only to recant at the first suspicion against her? You've blown your cop cover for almost no reason at all. Why make a fake peek on a player you can't read and then not keep it up? I'm trying to understand what your intentions were.
thellama73 wrote:Turnip Head wrote:Think back to what MP was saying about green peeks being cleared by the mafia looking for the cop. The mafia would want to kill a person whose green peek was accurate, because otherwise they would know it's not the real cop. So if the mafia had decided to take out DrWilgy thinking he was the cop, there would be no downside to killing him... because even if he wasn't the cop, his green peek (Sloonei) was already dead. Ergo, no one alive would be "Seer Hunt Cleared" (seer = cop).
There's really no reason for them not to kill Wilgy last night unless he's bad or it's an elaborate frame job.
Reread your posts, TH, and this is an excellent point!
I'm sold for now, but if you are wrong, I'm coming after you next. I'm wary of thread-steering.
Wow, you've not only made me doubt myself but you as well.
This scenario is a baddie's wet dream. If Wilgy is civ you've just laid the foundation for getting two mislynches for the price of one. You're "wary of thread-steering?" That might be the least Llama-like thing I've seen you say. The civ Llama I know feels strongly in his convictions, and attempts to get the rest of the thread to follow his lead. Would you be wary of your own behavior in games where you've done that? I feel like I'm right about something and I want people to talk about it instead of brushing it off. The timing of this post right after MP casts some doubt about me seems off. Why would you come after me if I'm wrong if you yourself are sold on my case?
G-Man wrote:To my young eyes, it looks pretty clear. Based on Day 1, Ann was going to be of no use to the bad guys. She wasn't on anybody's radar and was not part of the vote clusters that the bad guys probably expect us to analyze to death today. The fact that Ann didn't join the clusters probably told the bad guys that she was not going to be easy to sway in a pinch. In the eyes of the bad guys, Ann didn't look bad at all and was going to be hard to make look bad, so they decided to take her out.
Alrighty then G-Michael, you seem to know more about the baddies' kill than I do