An Australian Country Murder Mystery (Day 4)

[Sloonei]

of course lmao

[VOTE: epignosis] aubergine

tell me why you aint full o shit

I had a BM promptly at 2pm EST and have not had anything to eat since then.

What do you think Michelle’s alignment is in this game? What do you think nutella’s alignment is?

[G-Man]

Nice kill choice baddies. It gives me a sense of direction to start my day with.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

[Sloonei]

Nice kill choice baddies. It gives me a sense of direction to start my day with.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

Why Quin?

[Epignosis]

In case it isn't clear, I don't give a dingo. Lynch me today. Don't lynch me today. Lynch me tomorrow. Stick me up a kangaroo's butt. Have fun.

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: Sloonei] aubergine so I can see the poll.

[Sloonei]

Can you at least tell us what direction the water in your toilet flows?

[G-Man]

Nice kill choice baddies. It gives me a sense of direction to start my day with.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

Why Quin?

Nutella’s Day 1 train had three voters on it. Two of them are now dead. If the baddies were spread out across each train, then Quin is the nutella train baddie.

It’s flimsy logic, but it’s what I have to start the day with. We’ll see where my vote ends up after those last ISO’s and a re-read.

[Epignosis]

Can you at least tell us what direction the water in your toilet flows?

Down.

[sabie12]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

[Sloonei]

Did anyone save the poll?

[Sloonei]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I do not follow. Nutella did not vote for Tony, and I find it a bit of a stretch to assume that Jack was killed for the purpose of silencing his criticism of nutella. Plus, we now know that Jack would have been a perfectly viable counterwagon yesterday if nutella was bad and the mafia team wanted to save her. There wouldn’t have been a need for any of them to push to Tony (and no reason not to. My point is that I don’t see how this pair of deaths reflects poorly on nutella specifically). Is there more to this suspicion?

[Sloonei]

Did anyone save the poll?

I know that the Tony voters were me, sabie, Dom, Epi, and Michelle.
I know that G-man and LLD did not vote.
I don’t remember how the other two wagons looked, but the voting record should still exist in the thread.

[nutella]

Nice kill choice baddies. It gives me a sense of direction to start my day with.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

[nutella]

Nice kill choice baddies. It gives me a sense of direction to start my day with.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

Why Quin?

Nutella’s Day 1 train had three voters on it. Two of them are now dead. If the baddies were spread out across each train, then Quin is the nutella train baddie.

It’s flimsy logic, but it’s what I have to start the day with. We’ll see where my vote ends up after those last ISO’s and a re-read.

I don't see the reasoning behind the premise of this but ok

[nutella]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Was it you? Or is this too easy of a bite

[G-Man]

Never fear, G-Man (and his spreadsheet) is here:

JACK: DFaraday, Long Con, nutella

NUTELLA: Jack, Quin, Tony

TONY: Dom, Epignosis, Michelle, sabie, Sloonei

NO VOTE: G-Man, Lady LambdaDelta

[G-Man]

Never fear, G-Man (and his spreadsheet) is here:

JACK: DFaraday, Long Con, nutella

NUTELLA: Jack, Quin, Tony

TONY: Dom, Epignosis, Michelle, sabie, Sloonei

NO VOTE: G-Man, Lady LambdaDelta

Not sure about vote order. I just listed them alphabetically per my spreadsheet.

[nutella]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I do not follow. Nutella did not vote for Tony, and I find it a bit of a stretch to assume that Jack was killed for the purpose of silencing his criticism of nutella. Plus, we now know that Jack would have been a perfectly viable counterwagon yesterday if nutella was bad and the mafia team wanted to save her. There wouldn’t have been a need for any of them to push to Tony (and no reason not to. My point is that I don’t see how this pair of deaths reflects poorly on nutella specifically). Is there more to this suspicion?

So you don't think the kill was a frame of me? That was my first thought, and that sabie either bought it or is promoting the narrative that I'm scum.

[nutella]

I guess Quin would also be a candidate then?

[G-Man]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Nah. I suspect Jack was killed less for strategy and more because he was being loud and obnoxious. Jack’s death doesn’t move the needle for me on nutella yet, but we’ll see what I think after my re-read tomorrow.

[Sloonei]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I do not follow. Nutella did not vote for Tony, and I find it a bit of a stretch to assume that Jack was killed for the purpose of silencing his criticism of nutella. Plus, we now know that Jack would have been a perfectly viable counterwagon yesterday if nutella was bad and the mafia team wanted to save her. There wouldn’t have been a need for any of them to push to Tony (and no reason not to. My point is that I don’t see how this pair of deaths reflects poorly on nutella specifically). Is there more to this suspicion?

So you don't think the kill was a frame of me? That was my first thought, and that sabie either bought it or is promoting the narrative that I'm scum.

It’s possible. Several things are possible. I’m just trying to understand sabie’s perspective right now.

[Sloonei]

I talked about why I think Michelle’s progression on Tony was bogus here and I’d like to hear what others have to say about her.

Michelle responded here.

[Epignosis]

I am Sloonei's Robin. I will vote wherever Sloonei does.

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

[Sloonei]

[Long Con]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Sounds like it was you. [VOTE: sabie] aubergine

[nutella]

[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

I do not like his Jack vote.

I think I’d add Epi to my Do Not Lynch list for today. His play feels entirely uncalculated and nonchalant. These are not things I associate with evil epi.

of course lmao

[VOTE: epignosis] aubergine

tell me why you aint full o shit

I had a BM promptly at 2pm EST and have not had anything to eat since then.

What do you think Michelle’s alignment is in this game? What do you think nutella’s alignment is?

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] I take it you still townread Epi as per the second post here? Any additional thoughts? I'm not inspired by his posts so far this phase, but by his own admission he's not heavily invested in putting much effort into this game so I probably shouldn't read alignment into his laziness.

I guess I can't fault him for sheeping you, you're one of my stronger town reads so far. But part of me says I shouldn't put it past him to buddy you and hide behind the lazy approach.

[nutella]

I talked about why I think Michelle’s progression on Tony was bogus here and I’d like to hear what others have to say about her.

Michelle responded here.

The only part of your gripes with her I really got was your point that scum are more likely to accuse people for focusing on mechanics rather than being the ones to bring up mechanics themselves. I think I still lean town on Michelle by default but it's not that strong so I'm hoping your dialogue with her will develop more today, I expect if she's town it'll shine through to me and if it doesn't I may join you.

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

I do not like his Jack vote.

I think I’d add Epi to my Do Not Lynch list for today. His play feels entirely uncalculated and nonchalant. These are not things I associate with evil epi.

of course lmao

[VOTE: epignosis] aubergine

tell me why you aint full o shit

I had a BM promptly at 2pm EST and have not had anything to eat since then.

What do you think Michelle’s alignment is in this game? What do you think nutella’s alignment is?

@Sloonei I take it you still townread Epi as per the second post here? Any additional thoughts? I'm not inspired by his posts so far this phase, but by his own admission he's not heavily invested in putting much effort into this game so I probably shouldn't read alignment into his laziness.

I guess I can't fault him for sheeping you, you're one of my stronger town reads so far. But part of me says I shouldn't put it past him to buddy you and hide behind the lazy approach.

Right now I'm just trusting that Epi would be more likely to phone it in as a civilian than as mafia.

[Sloonei]

I talked about why I think Michelle’s progression on Tony was bogus here and I’d like to hear what others have to say about her.

Michelle responded here.

The only part of your gripes with her I really got was your point that scum are more likely to accuse people for focusing on mechanics rather than being the ones to bring up mechanics themselves. I think I still lean town on Michelle by default but it's not that strong so I'm hoping your dialogue with her will develop more today, I expect if she's town it'll shine through to me and if it doesn't I may join you.

The part that concerns me most is her suggestion that she believed Tony to have had a clear agenda of shading her at the end of Day 1. I get that we can all tend to feel like we're being unfairly persecuted if somebody accuses us of something that's not there, but I simply don't see anything that looks like what Michelle was alleging toward the end of Day 1.

Like I've said a couple of times, if Tony was scum there, his goal would have been to try to get civilians on his side, not to antagonize one of the only active civilians in the thread at that time. Michelle seemed to confidently assert her belief that Tony had a clear agenda. I don't believe that any level of confidence should have existed at all on that point.

[Sloonei]

I've noticed in past games sometimes the mafia players will focus on rules and gameplay so they're participating but not really having to say any reads. I thought maybe he was trying to appear helpful to town. He also made it a point to say he needed time to read jack and if he gets killed jack probably killed him. He was focusing a lot on jack and I was thinking maybe they could be teammates based on the way I've seen both of them play when mafia in the past. Also you had made a decent case on tony that I felt made sense at the time.

I'll have to look more closely at jack and nutella.

Just noting that sabie also used the "bad guys talk about mechanics" argument against Tony.

[Long Con]

I've noticed in past games sometimes the mafia players will focus on rules and gameplay so they're participating but not really having to say any reads. I thought maybe he was trying to appear helpful to town. He also made it a point to say he needed time to read jack and if he gets killed jack probably killed him. He was focusing a lot on jack and I was thinking maybe they could be teammates based on the way I've seen both of them play when mafia in the past. Also you had made a decent case on tony that I felt made sense at the time.

I'll have to look more closely at jack and nutella.

Just noting that sabie also used the "bad guys talk about mechanics" argument against Tony.

[Sloonei]

I've noticed in past games sometimes the mafia players will focus on rules and gameplay so they're participating but not really having to say any reads. I thought maybe he was trying to appear helpful to town. He also made it a point to say he needed time to read jack and if he gets killed jack probably killed him. He was focusing a lot on jack and I was thinking maybe they could be teammates based on the way I've seen both of them play when mafia in the past. Also you had made a decent case on tony that I felt made sense at the time.

I'll have to look more closely at jack and nutella.

Just noting that sabie also used the "bad guys talk about mechanics" argument against Tony.

You got any thoughts on non-sabie players?

[Long Con]

I've noticed in past games sometimes the mafia players will focus on rules and gameplay so they're participating but not really having to say any reads. I thought maybe he was trying to appear helpful to town. He also made it a point to say he needed time to read jack and if he gets killed jack probably killed him. He was focusing a lot on jack and I was thinking maybe they could be teammates based on the way I've seen both of them play when mafia in the past. Also you had made a decent case on tony that I felt made sense at the time.

I'll have to look more closely at jack and nutella.

Just noting that sabie also used the "bad guys talk about mechanics" argument against Tony.

You got any thoughts on non-sabie players?

I think nutella's ok, I don't suspect her. G-Man too.

[Sloonei]

I've noticed in past games sometimes the mafia players will focus on rules and gameplay so they're participating but not really having to say any reads. I thought maybe he was trying to appear helpful to town. He also made it a point to say he needed time to read jack and if he gets killed jack probably killed him. He was focusing a lot on jack and I was thinking maybe they could be teammates based on the way I've seen both of them play when mafia in the past. Also you had made a decent case on tony that I felt made sense at the time.

I'll have to look more closely at jack and nutella.

Just noting that sabie also used the "bad guys talk about mechanics" argument against Tony.

You got any thoughts on non-sabie players?

I think nutella's ok, I don't suspect her. G-Man too.

Why?

What about Michelle and Dom?

[Epignosis]

Michelle and Quin are teammates.

[Sloonei]

Michelle and Quin are teammates.

What’s this about Quin, Robin?

[Dom]

Hey guys I wanted to check in.

I really didn't feel great today and didn't read much of the thread. I hope to be feeling better tomorrow.

xoxo gossip queer

[DFaraday]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I do not follow. Nutella did not vote for Tony, and I find it a bit of a stretch to assume that Jack was killed for the purpose of silencing his criticism of nutella. Plus, we now know that Jack would have been a perfectly viable counterwagon yesterday if nutella was bad and the mafia team wanted to save her. There wouldn’t have been a need for any of them to push to Tony (and no reason not to. My point is that I don’t see how this pair of deaths reflects poorly on nutella specifically). Is there more to this suspicion?

So you don't think the kill was a frame of me? That was my first thought, and that sabie either bought it or is promoting the narrative that I'm scum.

I think it's the second option. I actually began thinking there might be a Sabie/Michelle connection yesterday, but didn't want to say anything explicit during the night. My theory is that Michelle forced suspicion on Tony, then had to double down on it as their interaction continued, and Sabie just parroted her teammate's suspicion. Sabie's post today makes me feel even less warm towards her, since it's basically shouting, "WOW HOW SUSPICIOUS DOES THIS KILL MAKE NUTELLA LOOK, RIGHT GUYS?"

[DFaraday]

Also, here are all of Sabie's posts regarding suspicions of Jack, Nutella, and Tony:

So right now I'm feeling suspicious of both Jack and nutella. Jack specifically commented on everyone in response to g man's post except me. He would have actually had to delete my name from the original post because now it's not there. Jack has played multiple games with me so why leave me out? Accidentally forgot me? Maybe... So far whenever I've played a game with jack and he's been mafia he makes it a point not to accuse me and ends up lulling me into a false sense of security just to come out and win in the end. Last time I realized just one lynch too late that it had happened again. He said hi to me in the beginning of the game so he knows I'm here. Also, I'm not sure how to take the whole making a big deal about DFs playstyle in the beginning.

I know nutella can be waffley a lot of times but some of what she's said kind of pinged me such as saying she didn't even know that Jack already votes and thinking tony would have tmi this early in the game. Some of her posts are just contradicting statements.

So right now I'm feeling suspicious of both Jack and nutella. Jack specifically commented on everyone in response to g man's post except me. He would have actually had to delete my name from the original post because now it's not there. Jack has played multiple games with me so why leave me out? Accidentally forgot me? Maybe... So far whenever I've played a game with jack and he's been mafia he makes it a point not to accuse me and ends up lulling me into a false sense of security just to come out and win in the end. Last time I realized just one lynch too late that it had happened again. He said hi to me in the beginning of the game so he knows I'm here. Also, I'm not sure how to take the whole making a big deal about DFs playstyle in the beginning.

I know nutella can be waffley a lot of times but some of what she's said kind of pinged me such as saying she didn't even know that Jack already votes and thinking tony would have tmi this early in the game. Some of her posts are just contradicting statements.

What are your thoughts on G-man and Tony?

Tony I'm not sure. He's pretty defensive of Jack but when he's been bad in the past he posted more and did more "reads" right away. He seems more tentative so far so I could go either way on him. What's your suspicion of him from?


Gman is putting a good amount of effort in. I don't think I ever played a game where he was mafia so Ive only seen his civ game. I don't think he has said anything sketchy so far.

I have suspicions on all three of the people with votes. In looking through Tony's posts a lot of his focus is on jack. He makes it a point to say "if I'm nightkilled jack is scum" and that he needs a few days to figure him out subtle ways of saying dont lynch me im town without actually saying it. When he was mafia in the past his main focus of discussion was his own teammates so if they got killed off he could be like see I'm not bad. Ive seen jack do this as well. Also his post making it a point to say how many mislynches we can have was a little sketchy. I see a lot of fair points on him and he hasnt done much to counteract these points.

Jack I've expressed my suspicion on him. There's a fair amount of back and forth discussion on him but I'm still leaning towards thinking he is mafia.

Nutella can be very difficult to read as she does often follow the waves of the thread but her response to things so far hasn't made me feel confident about her being town.

This day 1 is hard there are fair points on all three. Voting tony as I feel worst about him and his efforts thus far.

Her first two posts cast suspicion almost entirely on Jack and Nutella, while saying that Tony has been defensive of Jack and she could "go either way" on him. However, her next relevant post sees her apparently much more suspicious of Tony for discussing an alleged teammate (Jack), when this didn't seem so damning in her earlier assessment. Also note that this development and her subsequent vote follow shortly after Michelle's vote for Tony.

I'm going to [VOTE: Sabie] aubergine for now, but I don't discourage Michelle voters either.

[nutella]

Hmmm spicy

[mention]sabie12[/mention] [mention]Michelle[/mention] looking forward to your comments

also tfw df is putting in more hunting effort than me

[nutella]

@jack guess it worked

[Michelle]

I talked about why I think Michelle’s progression on Tony was bogus here and I’d like to hear what others have to say about her.

Michelle responded here.

The only part of your gripes with her I really got was your point that scum are more likely to accuse people for focusing on mechanics rather than being the ones to bring up mechanics themselves. I think I still lean town on Michelle by default but it's not that strong so I'm hoping your dialogue with her will develop more today, I expect if she's town it'll shine through to me and if it doesn't I may join you.

The part that concerns me most is her suggestion that she believed Tony to have had a clear agenda of shading her at the end of Day 1. I get that we can all tend to feel like we're being unfairly persecuted if somebody accuses us of something that's not there, but I simply don't see anything that looks like what Michelle was alleging toward the end of Day 1.

Like I've said a couple of times, if Tony was scum there, his goal would have been to try to get civilians on his side, not to antagonize one of the only active civilians in the thread at that time. Michelle seemed to confidently assert her belief that Tony had a clear agenda. I don't believe that any level of confidence should have existed at all on that point.

You are talking about my confidence, this is a playstyle thing. I explained what I expected from him. This kind of things he did I noticed at scum. I am sorry he was villager, if you think my lynch will avenge him go ahead.

Complaining about how I am confident, your post below isn't TMI?

Jack is town.

How were you so confident?

[Michelle]

Hmmm spicy

sabie12 Michelle looking forward to your comments

also tfw df is putting in more hunting effort than me

few hours I will be at work and I will come and play asap.
AMA

[sabie12]

I actually just suck at this game. I was not suggesting that nutella wanted to take them out because they suspected her. I thought nutella was suspicious from the beginning. Both jack and Tony had suspected her so I put my vote there for now. I was more so saying maybe she's worth another look since both of them seemed pretty confident she was bad and she was the main suspicion that both of them shared. Apparently, that point didn't make sense to anyone, but me.
The suspicions on michelle make sense and people have good points on her. She was another one I was going to look at.

[sabie12]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Sounds like it was you. [VOTE: sabie] aubergine

Sounds like what was me? You also had thought jack and tony were potentially bad. I was saying tony and Jack both suspected nutella maybe we should consider they could have been right about her.

[G-Man]

Not caught up yet, but here’s a thought: why did the Tony train develop?

Both Tony and Jack were civvie, leaving nutella as the only unknown from Day 1. Here are some scenarios:

1. Nutella is civvie. The baddies don’t need to offer a third option when the two lead trains are mislynches. Work smarter, not harder. The Tony train was a civvie concoction with one or two baddies following the civvies’ leads.

2. Nutella is a civvie. The baddies launch the Tony train because Jack v. nutella grew stale. Not necessary, but the Jack kill could steer us toward a Day 2 mislynch by focusing on nutella.

3. Nutella is a baddie. The Tony train was started by civvies, and one or two baddies were willing to pad the poll to avoid a randomized tie-breaker after momentum against Jack stalled.

4. Nutella is a baddie. Sensing the pressure on Jack lightening, the baddies launch the Tony train in the hopes of creating a late-phase mislynch at best, and a messy situation involving last-minute vote-hopping at worst.

Consider each scenario. Who are your three baddies in each one?

[Dom]

Not caught up yet, but here’s a thought: why did the Tony train develop?

Both Tony and Jack were civvie, leaving nutella as the only unknown from Day 1. Here are some scenarios:

1. Nutella is civvie. The baddies don’t need to offer a third option when the two lead trains are mislynches. Work smarter, not harder. The Tony train was a civvie concoction with one or two baddies following the civvies’ leads.

2. Nutella is a civvie. The baddies launch the Tony train because Jack v. nutella grew stale. Not necessary, but the Jack kill could steer us toward a Day 2 mislynch by focusing on nutella.

3. Nutella is a baddie. The Tony train was started by civvies, and one or two baddies were willing to pad the poll to avoid a randomized tie-breaker after momentum against Jack stalled.

4. Nutella is a baddie. Sensing the pressure on Jack lightening, the baddies launch the Tony train in the hopes of creating a late-phase mislynch at best, and a messy situation involving last-minute vote-hopping at worst.

Consider each scenario. Who are your three baddies in each one?

I still feel like crap but I will do my best.

1. sabie is bad. Maybe Michelle. Maybe LC.
2. sabie is bad. Sloonei is bad. I look not great here too. Neither does Epi or Michelle.
3. Sabie and Michelle are bad. Nutella is their partner.
4. Epi/Sloonei are nutella's partners.

[Dom]

But that doesn't account for non voters, G-Man. And I'm not sure how I feel about you.


And I didn't quite account for baddies voting on nutella.

IDK how I feel about Quin.


Common threads of my list:
-Sabie
-Michelle
-Sloonei

[Long Con]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Sounds like it was you. [VOTE: sabie] aubergine

Sounds like what was me? You also had thought jack and tony were potentially bad. I was saying tony and Jack both suspected nutella maybe we should consider they could have been right about her.

You killed Jack in order to frame nutella.

[Sloonei]

I actually just suck at this game. I was not suggesting that nutella wanted to take them out because they suspected her. I thought nutella was suspicious from the beginning. Both jack and Tony had suspected her so I put my vote there for now. I was more so saying maybe she's worth another look since both of them seemed pretty confident she was bad and she was the main suspicion that both of them shared. Apparently, that point didn't make sense to anyone, but me.
The suspicions on michelle make sense and people have good points on her. She was another one I was going to look at.

Who do you town read and why?