Pondering nutella....
These kinds of exercises are fun, so let's see what this yields:
nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 2:45 pm
alright let's give this a go
Dragon D. Luffy town
dunya town
Epignosis scum
G-Man town
M Plus 7 town
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME scum
Russtifinko town
sig town
Sloonei town
speedchuck scum
TonyStarkPrime scum
Turnip Head scum
Getting read lists from baddies is always an exercise in reverse-psychology. Splitting the groups up by those still living, we get:
TOWN READS:
-DDL
-dunya
-G-Man
-MP
-Russ
-Sloonei
SCUM LEANS:
-speed
-Tony/Jack
-TH
Either nutella forgot that she had both Epi and Nanook in her baddie lists here, or she/her teammates felt threatened enough to warrant killing them. Epi called nutella out on BS early, so I can see that threat. Nanook's peek gambit might have done the same. Either way, it cuts her baddie list down to three.
I'm assuming that there are two baddies left in the game. It feels right for the size of the game. Two against twelve seems harsh even if you do factor in all the baddie-friendly aspects of the game.
When you make a list as a baddie with two teammates, do you town read both of them, scum lean both of them, or split the difference? My brain always assumes that a baddie splits the difference. It's what I'd be inclined to do in that situation.
Assuming that nutella split the difference, then it means only one of speed, Tony/Jack, and TH is bad. That's a pretty good group to bury a teammate in, because there are posting and personality tendencies in all three of them to keep people wondering.
Her town read list includes some potent potential supatown types. If nutella did not split the difference, then two on that list are her teammates. Which two would you wager on being the baddies if both had to come from that list?
Putting both of your teammates in a scum list is dangerous because, if people start agreeing, you hurt your numbers. It might give you cred, but that cred might be hard to give when the baddie kills start steering everyone to 2/3 of the baddies that easily. You can only be so correct without seeming suspicious for it.
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On Day 1 she just kind of shrugged at the entire Mac-or-Sig debate. Easy to do when you know both are civvies. She let us do the mislynching. Does another teammate pull of the shrug-and-vote-elsewhere bit? Your only options are Russ, DDL, and Tony/Jack. Speed didn't vote, so if he's a mislynch, then there could be a baddie on the Mac train, but it's only dunya, Sloonei, or TH.
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On Day 2, nutella relents and votes Sig based on Nanook's gambit. It makes sense, because she can blame it all on his compelling claim after it blows up in everyone's faces. Again, she didn't have to try very hard. In doing so, she put herself at odds with TH. I can see a world in which the two of them take opposite sides of the matter so at least one of them comes out looking good in the end. What happened was, nutella was wrong and Nanook looked suspicious, helping TH in the process.
Nanook being NK'd throws a wrench into the nutella-TH teammate works though. It takes away a mislynch opportunity from them and also erases any cred gained by TH in the process. It was, however, a soft erasure of cred for TH, because I don't know that many people sussed him for his sus of Nanook. I mean, Nanook had a lot of 'splainin to do. Maybe that shelved analysis of TH's sus on Nanook. Hard to say.
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Night 2, nutella proclaims that there's very little to gain from Day 2's events. That makes me think that there is something to Day 2 that she hopes we don't pick up on. What was it? Maybe I'll find it in my ISOs.
Night 2 she also throws shade at TH again, as well as DDL. I'll have to see what 'exchange' she referred to to label them both as suspicious. It brings back that curious pondering about a TH-nutella scenario. I don't remember how much heat TH was taking at the time. I'll have to check on that too.
Night 2, nutella is wounded by having to defend her softball town read on little old me. This drew enough suspicion from the civvie vig to off her. This is a good time to remind everyone that nutella wasn't lynched. In fact she never received a single vote all game. That means her teammates didn't try the cute throwaway vote on teammate nutella. Maybe she was talkative but noncommittal enough that a vote on her would seem odd. Hard to say.
However, because I am G-Man, and I can tinfoil with the best of them, I can envision a world where nutella and Sloonei are baddie teammates, using their verbose natures to lead the thread post-wise, and setting themselves on opposite sides of one or two players in order to feed the other cred when one side crumbles and gets lynched.
But that's a lot of hard work to pull off in small, quieter sort of game. Why would baddies try to be that cute when they can probably coast for two or three days? I could see both nutella and Sloonei trying it for the show-off factor, but it's a bitter pill to swallow from a 30,000-foot level.
I still want to hear about it. The wagon formation feels wrong. I basically only put off wagon votes down if I loathe all the viable wagons and am protest voting. I'll generally vote a townlean to save a townread. Iirc 3 off wagon votes and a pair of 2 person wagons and a 4 person wagon feels wrong. Maybe there were last second switches to explain it but that's not the way Sloonei answered my concern. I haven't caught up that far.
why is his vote still on MP? i don't believe it.
