Corrupt!? Mafia (ENDGAME)

[Hyena]

You're also stuck on her way more then I am. I want Jack shot. I think she's the third because she shot Nanook, which was insane, and that's all I'm basing it on. I haven't given G-man or Wilgy a whole lot of thought for how they could connect though.

I don't think Jack is mafia either though. Hold on, I'll quote another post I made about that subject.

[Funnygurl555]

dont listen to him hyena

ugh

he's a wolf. i shoulda shot him. fuck

[Hyena]

Here ya go. Here's me eliminating all pairings that Jack could be a part of --

So, I remembered eliminating certain pairings that Jack could be in, but I couldn't remember which ones, outside of Boo --

I kinda want to shoot Jack. Does anyone object?

I have no reason to single Jack out as a suspect. He wasn't here when I was here last night. But at least if he gets shot he can preserve his unlynchable claim some more.

I don't like that Jack is acting low key. He's also skating. He also won't get lynched if he's scum. I think he's a good shot. Maybe not the most likely to flip wolf but he's the most likely to flip wolf in a way that destroys the scum team if he is one.

Also I do think he is one. I don't believe half the shit he says. He's just applied an urgent scattery tone to the few posts he's made that makes it look authentic. He cleared Johann off being wrongtown and I never understand people that do that. Johann/Jack feel teamy to me.

I agree with the feel of Jack, but I wouldn't think them to be w/w.

That's two of the people you had previously confirmed. Was there anything other than the above that changed that?

So, if Jack is actually Wilgy's partner, would he push Jack but ALSO defend Johann here? Like, if his partner Jack flipped mafia, he'd WANT people to think Johann could be teamed with him. So, like, I'm pretty confident in saying that Jack and Wilgy are never w/w here.

I still stand by this read. Thus, in my mind --

Jack/Wilgy isn't a thing based on the above reasoning
Jack/Boo isn't a thing based on their arguments against each other since, like, D3?
Jack/Funny isn't a thing because that would require Funny to be mafia, which I don't believe is the case.
Jack/Johann isn't a thing because Johann is confirmed town by being poisoned.
Jack/Hyena isn't a thing because I'm town.
Jack/Nanook could be a thing, but they get found if we stick to the current plan.
The only other person (in the game) is G-Man, but G-Man's now trying to pair him with Nanook as the scum team.

Thus, I don't think I'd want to go after Jack today.

[boo]

Anyway, Boo. Can you explain to me why Funny would just spontaneously re-evalute me and conclude I'm town on the same night that five people want me to get shot, if she was mafia?

This happened when she had the gun, shot Nanook, and you got poisoned, correct?

No, on N2. The night Dragomir got shot instead of me.

How's it relevant then? She was taking herself out of the field of people who wanted you shot because she thought Nanook would shoot you, then?

Nanook didn't indicate whether he'd shoot me or not though. In fact, he specifically said he wasn't going to say who he was going to shoot. Why would FG believe I was the most likely to get shot?

Again, I still don't see how this line of thinking is relevant to her alignment.

Either way, she'd think you were an option because, again, you had the most people in favour of shooting you.

You were one of the people in favor of shooting me -- after using my own argument for calling Nutella scum D1, even, and not even thinking I was town when I was making that argument.

In other words, it has nothing to do with her alignment, you still think I'm mafia for not trusting you.

[Hyena]

This happened when she had the gun, shot Nanook, and you got poisoned, correct?

No, on N2. The night Dragomir got shot instead of me.

How's it relevant then? She was taking herself out of the field of people who wanted you shot because she thought Nanook would shoot you, then?

Nanook didn't indicate whether he'd shoot me or not though. In fact, he specifically said he wasn't going to say who he was going to shoot. Why would FG believe I was the most likely to get shot?

Again, I still don't see how this line of thinking is relevant to her alignment.

Either way, she'd think you were an option because, again, you had the most people in favour of shooting you.

You were one of the people in favor of shooting me -- after using my own argument for calling Nutella scum D1, even, and not even thinking I was town when I was making that argument.

In other words, it has nothing to do with her alignment, you still think I'm mafia for not trusting you.

No, I can quote where I started townreading her, too, if you want. Gimme a moment.

[boo]

No, on N2. The night Dragomir got shot instead of me.

How's it relevant then? She was taking herself out of the field of people who wanted you shot because she thought Nanook would shoot you, then?

Nanook didn't indicate whether he'd shoot me or not though. In fact, he specifically said he wasn't going to say who he was going to shoot. Why would FG believe I was the most likely to get shot?

Again, I still don't see how this line of thinking is relevant to her alignment.

Either way, she'd think you were an option because, again, you had the most people in favour of shooting you.

You were one of the people in favor of shooting me -- after using my own argument for calling Nutella scum D1, even, and not even thinking I was town when I was making that argument.

In other words, it has nothing to do with her alignment, you still think I'm mafia for not trusting you.

No, I can quote where I started townreading her, too, if you want. Gimme a moment.

Again, relevance?

You're confirmed town and this is still how you're playing? Like... dude. Come ON. This is just painful.

[Hyena]

Hell yeah I have, thank you all for not breaking my achy breaky heart.

My current pool is Hyena/Mac/Jack/technically boo cause he won’t play the game, ama

You have an order of preference for these? mine would be Hyena > Jack > Mac > Boo.

Let's talk.

sure what's up?

Why do you find me Sus? :P

your earlier d1 reads didn't feel genuine

Who do you want me to shoot again FG?

hyena or jack but also don't listen to me T_____________________________T

sure what's up?

Why do you find me Sus? :P

your earlier d1 reads didn't feel genuine

What about my D2 reads and later D1 reads?

fiiiiiiiiiiine i'll iso

l O l y'aaaaaaaaaaaaaal hyena's actually town i think

*looks at my reads*

*cringes*

oooof something's wrong here

[Hyena]

So, does that progression on me, from strong scumread to instant townread after reading my ISO, comes more likely from scum!Funny, or town!Funny?

[Hyena]

hyena was O F F n1 but the buildup looked genuine except for the flip flop on nutella but she's town so ...

nanook you got some meta knowledge on him?

hyena was O F F n1 but the buildup looked genuine except for the flip flop on nutella but she's town so ...

nanook you got some meta knowledge on him?

A very small amount, a scum game and a pair of town games (only one I remember well tho)

does this feel like scum hyena or town hyena to you?

idk if i'd be down with a hyena shot anymore tbh. if i'm wrong it's whatever.

jack or wilgy are some real spicy shots imo

but once again your opinion matters the most

What I’d like to get from everyone is two people you would shoot and two people you would not. Doesn’t have to be ranked 1/2, I don’t care. Just give me two names on either end.

I would NOT shoot G-Man or Funny.
I WOULD shoot Dragomir or Boo.

OH YEAH. DRAGOMIR

is an option

[Hyena]

Not only did she start townreading me at that point, she switched off on to Drago, who ended up flipping scum that night after Nanook shot them.

So, like, no, I'm never considering Funny as scum.

[Hyena]

How's it relevant then? She was taking herself out of the field of people who wanted you shot because she thought Nanook would shoot you, then?

Nanook didn't indicate whether he'd shoot me or not though. In fact, he specifically said he wasn't going to say who he was going to shoot. Why would FG believe I was the most likely to get shot?

Again, I still don't see how this line of thinking is relevant to her alignment.

Either way, she'd think you were an option because, again, you had the most people in favour of shooting you.

You were one of the people in favor of shooting me -- after using my own argument for calling Nutella scum D1, even, and not even thinking I was town when I was making that argument.

In other words, it has nothing to do with her alignment, you still think I'm mafia for not trusting you.

No, I can quote where I started townreading her, too, if you want. Gimme a moment.

Again, relevance?

You're confirmed town and this is still how you're playing? Like... dude. Come ON. This is just painful.

I just gave you arguments for why I think Jack and Funny are town, and this is what you have to say?

[Hyena]

Dude, it's probably exactly Boo and Wilgy. I can't believe you guys talked me out of that pairing the other dayphase.

[boo]

So, does that progression on me, from strong scumread to instant townread after reading my ISO, comes more likely from scum!Funny, or town!Funny?

Are you seriously asking if an instant TR that is based on... absolutely nothing at the time it's made... is more likely to be town or mafia... and then somehow still getting the answer wrong?

[boo]

Nanook didn't indicate whether he'd shoot me or not though. In fact, he specifically said he wasn't going to say who he was going to shoot. Why would FG believe I was the most likely to get shot?

Again, I still don't see how this line of thinking is relevant to her alignment.

Either way, she'd think you were an option because, again, you had the most people in favour of shooting you.

You were one of the people in favor of shooting me -- after using my own argument for calling Nutella scum D1, even, and not even thinking I was town when I was making that argument.

In other words, it has nothing to do with her alignment, you still think I'm mafia for not trusting you.

No, I can quote where I started townreading her, too, if you want. Gimme a moment.

Again, relevance?

You're confirmed town and this is still how you're playing? Like... dude. Come ON. This is just painful.

I just gave you arguments for why I think Jack and Funny are town, and this is what you have to say?

Those aren't arguments. Those are you playing a terrible game and doubling down on it, instead of taking the opportunity to re-evaluate how you've been thinking up until this point.

[Hyena]

I'm tripling down on it now.

[Hyena]

And the thing you don't realize is that I did reevaluate time and time again last dayphase, and now I'm back here again, with the conclusion that you and Wilgy are mafia.

[Hyena]

And the thing you don't realize is that I did reevaluate time and time again last dayphase, and now I'm back here again, with the conclusion that you and Wilgy are mafia.

At one point, I -WAS- saying that Jack could be mafia. I think I was also one of the people that said that Nanook could be mafia, too. So, like, I don't see how you can say that I'm not reevaluating?

[Jackofhearts2005]

@boo
@DrWilgy
@Funnygurl555
@G-Man
@Hyena
@Jackofhearts2005
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME was shot! He was vanilla town. Hyena was poisoned. Today is MyLo, a misshot will end the game! You have 48 hours to pick someone to give the gun to.

Fuuuuuuuck me.

[boo]

And the thing you don't realize is that I did reevaluate time and time again last dayphase, and now I'm back here again, with the conclusion that you and Wilgy are mafia.

At one point, I -WAS- saying that Jack could be mafia. I think I was also one of the people that said that Nanook could be mafia, too. So, like, I don't see how you can say that I'm not reevaluating?

Okay, and then who got shot?

[Hyena]

Cause nutella is town so stop pushing that please

Unless she is scum that would be sad but I hope she is town

There are 3 people who want this dude to have the gun?

Why didn't you want Dusk to get the gun D1, by the way?

[Jackofhearts2005]

The real question is wtf anyone still thought shooting Nanook was a good idea.

Jack & FG are the mafia.

Dude you’ve been gone for three days. Even if we knew you were town, why would we take your advice?

You have to explain your reads. This is how three townies got bad scumreads on Nanook.

[Hyena]

Actually, boo, are you still around? Would you be up for moving to Dusk with me right now?

0% chance I'd vote Dusk. Pick someone else.

Another instance of you not wanting to give the gun to Dusk.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I have FG and myself locktown.

I don’t know who the wolves are. Like...probably Boo but it’s hard to read a guy who doesn’t do anything. And Wilgy and GMan didn’t really care if Boo went down. Can it be Wilgy/GMan? Idk if that’s even worth considering cause I’d have to get the gun and shoot one and then we’d probably have to give the gun to Boo and hope he shoots the other, which is a huge ask.

I really hate kingmaker. More than one player should be forced to take a stand at the end of the day. And since only the person with the gun has any power, you have to just believe their emotion or not believe it. Like I don’t think FG was being dishonest but it’s easier to say she was being honest if she has to actually fight other people to lynch her read instead of being able to ham and haw and shoot whoever.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Sorry [mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention] . Not for having a bad read but for pissing you off.

[boo]

I am done with this.

[VOTE: G-man] aubergine

[Hyena]

Another question! Why aren't you considering Wilgy as possible scum, Boo? He was actually calling you scum all of last dayphase, more so than even Jack or Nanook. Why can't he be scum over Funny and Jack?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Yeah, I had a feeling that poison was coming, lol.

They didn't want me to get the gun today, I think.

Maybe.

Wolves knew Nanook or me or Boo was going down.

They targeted you.

Last time, wolves knew Nanook or Boo was going down and they targeted Johann.

Time before that, they didn’t know who was going down and they targeted Dusk.

I’m trying to get in the wolves’ heads here and I just got nothing. Proooooobably because both wolves are really far behind.

I’m tempted to just sheep your reads.

I’m in the unenviable position of having just hard pushed a flipped townie and being the only option I trust. Like the win from my pov requires I get the gun and make a correct shot OR pick out a townie who makes the correct shot. Option A is mathematically easier but idk how I’m ever gonna get the gun.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m probably just gonna shut up for awhile. God knows I’ve said enough.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I might give Jack the gun actually, Boo.

ok Jack, solve the game

Idk. All my suspects are so far behind nothing they say makes sense in any alignment.

[DrWilgy]

I just don't get why Boo is still alive my dudes.

This literally did nothing for me and the scum winning line has to be Boo Jack.

It's not Jack if it's not Boo.

meaning we are seeing these lines:
Possible: Boo + Jack

Just as likely at this point: Boo + Gman

Unlikely but boy by golly have a holly jolly Christmas this year am I tinfoiling: Boo + FG

and least likely Gman + FG

[Jackofhearts2005]

By the way, I want control over who gets the gun today. I'm hijacking this game now that I'm confirmed town. <3

I’m fine with that. If you can confirm GMan or Wilgy, I’ll vote there.

Or I’ll take the ball and work together to figure this out.

It’s just soooo demotivating. Jesus.

[DrWilgy]

I have FG and myself locktown.

I don’t know who the wolves are. Like...probably Boo but it’s hard to read a guy who doesn’t do anything. And Wilgy and GMan didn’t really care if Boo went down. Can it be Wilgy/GMan? Idk if that’s even worth considering cause I’d have to get the gun and shoot one and then we’d probably have to give the gun to Boo and hope he shoots the other, which is a huge ask.

I really hate kingmaker. More than one player should be forced to take a stand at the end of the day. And since only the person with the gun has any power, you have to just believe their emotion or not believe it. Like I don’t think FG was being dishonest but it’s easier to say she was being honest if she has to actually fight other people to lynch her read instead of being able to ham and haw and shoot whoever.

The Boo shot was literally the only thing I wanted yesterday.

[DrWilgy]

If Funnygurl is scum, I'm just about willing to accept the L.

[DrWilgy]

I'm actually tilted and nothing is making sense anymore.

[DrWilgy]

Like, it has to be Boo + Jack right? and Jack's argument on why he wasn't possibly scum can be invalidated because it was a bus before Boo returned.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Ok Jack, if it's not you, then who? Let's pretend we're both town for a minute. Let's say Boo is mafia. Who should replace you/me in the POE?

If I magically knew you were town and Boo was scum, I'd be looking at how people reacted to things today.

FG and Hyena are pushing to keep you out of the poe. Both have said one of me and Boo should be scum, which isn't logical. These things make sense from a perspective of the scumteam being Nanook/FG or Nanook/Hyena. They mislynch Boo and use that flip to pursue a mislynch on me ftw. These things do not make sense from the perspective of a Boo/FG or a Boo/Hyena scumteam. They're giving up a Nanook mislynch. They're probably giving up a Jack mislynch because honestly, Boo always goes before me unless they take matters into their own hands. Even if FG or Hyena gets the gun and shoots me, it locks Boo into the next lynch by their own reasoning (and by a third townie that Boo said he was certain was scum and died saying to shoot Boo) and makes them look bad for personally shooting me instead of Boo. Basically, FG and Hyena's play today damn near rules them out from being scum with Boo in particular.

GMan has wrung his hands a lot today. In a town Nanook, scum Boo world, I can't rule him out atm. He's townread Boo and wanted to hang onto that read. My gut instinct is still that he's town even if you flip town but he'd be a player I start looking at harder.

Wilgy has laid out two worlds. 1) Jack is right and Nanook/Boo are mafia. 2) Jack is mafia with Boo. So if he's teamed with Boo, he's already in bus mode. I think trying to tie Nanook or Jack (who we magically know are town in this exercise) would be a bad look.

I'm kinda like
80% - Nanook and Boo
5% - Nanook and FG
5% - Nanook and Hyena
5% - Boo and Wilgy
2.5% - Nanook and GMan
2.5% - Boo and GMan

I can probably find reasons to adjust a lot of those percentages if that first one wasn't just so high.

This is again why I'm advocating for a Nanook lynch. It's just way easier to hide as his teammate. Even a Nanook townflip does a ton to solve the game. Puts us in a position where we really only have to evaluate two players. I'd much rather shoot town Nanook and risk the game on figuring out which of 2 players is Boo's partner than shoot town Boo and then 1) have to find Nanook's teammate in a pool of 4 players and 2) have to fight Nanook, Nanook's teammate and a couple townies who are hanging onto Nanook townreads to actually get the gun to even get the 1 in 4 chance to win.

If I have no scum, we lose. If I have both scum, we win. If I have one scum, and we shoot scum first, it doesn't really matter. If I have one scum and we shoot town first, I'd much prefer to shoot town Nanook over town Boo.

Fuck shit damn.

So often it’s like poeing out the quiet players and losing to the deep wolf. Now we’re stuck with a suspect pool of quiet players and not enough to evaluate them with.

[DrWilgy]

Like, it has to be Boo + Jack right? and Jack's argument on why he wasn't possibly scum can be invalidated because it was a bus before Boo returned.

But this doesn't even work because it's just as likely Gman Boo because Jack's argument can apply there as well right?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Like, it has to be Boo + Jack right? and Jack's argument on why he wasn't possibly scum can be invalidated because it was a bus before Boo returned.

God, if it was me and Boo, I’d have bussed him by now. As much as I like his updates, he’s been a massive pain to play with. Rude and not hunting and just absent for a whole day. I’d be confirmed town by shooting him in most players eyes or pushing hard on him. I could have gone Boo -> Nanook easily. FG wanted to shoot Boo. I didn’t let her cause I’m an idiot and thought I’d only one of them was town, it would be Boo. Let myself tinfoil into a Nanook/FG world even though I strongly townread a FG until she got the gun and didn’t want to shoot Nanook.

[Jackofhearts2005]

If I got a free wolf flip on Wilgy/Boo/GMan, I’m not sure I could pick out the other wolf. I’m so fucking lost I need all three of them to post more.

[DrWilgy]

its easy for you to say now. fucking, do you know how annoying the nanook x jack thunderdome was??

and how bad it would have been if boo were town?

Is that it was annoying the only reason why we didn't kill Boo?

Also how would've it been remotely bad if boo were town? The line where we remove Jack or Nanook and either of them flip town was so much worse.

We'd have removed a wallflower and gained so much more than what we did.

What makes you not Boo's teammate? I can't piece together your shot.

[DrWilgy]

If I got a free wolf flip on Wilgy/Boo/GMan, I’m not sure I could pick out the other wolf. I’m so fucking lost I need all three of them to post more.

I've posted plenty at this point, and this could've been a non-factor.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Idk why I ruled out GMan/Wilgy.

Probably because Boo has been so damn scummy in a vacuum?

If Boo’s town can we even still win? Is that even worth worrying about? Say I blast Wilgy and he flips scum. Hyena dies. FG gets poisoned. Gun then has to go to GMan or Boo. Townie between them always shoots the wolf between them if given the gun because that’s literally the only unconfirmed player.

Idk how I would ever find town Boo if Boo is town though. He hasn’t explained his reads all game. He hasn’t been nice to anyone all game. Like if Boo has to appeal to FG/Jack and convey that he’s town over GMan or Wilgy, he probably fails miserably.

Under that idea, we probably have to shoot Boo today. We lose if he’s town and we have to shoot him if he’s scum....right?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Me still townreading Wilgy and GMan like.

[DrWilgy]

i think both you and nanook are town

Why don't we just shoot Boo then as I've been saying?

i am shooting boo 8)

I KEEP LOOKING AT THIS POST AND IT'S NOT HELPING

[DrWilgy]

I'm going to sleep and am going through ISOs tomorrow.

[Hyena]

I'm thinking about giving Boo the gun now. After no one listened to me for about 3-4 dayphases about killing him, I'd be okay with losing to him and blame everyone else for not listening to me if he's mafia.

[G-Man]

Questing for the win requires us to evaluate every possible teammate pairing. There are only five players left who can be shot tonight, leaving us with only 10 combinations to work through:

Boo & DrWilgy
Boo & Funnygurl
Boo & G-Man
Boo & Jack
DrWilgy & Funnygurl
DrWilgy & G-Man
DrWilgy & Jack
Funnygurl & Jack
Funnygurl & G-Man
G-Man & Jack

Each of the five of us are incapable of analyzing any pairings that involve ourselves, so that reduces the workload to just six pairings each.

[mention]Hyena[/mention]- you can try your hand at analyzing all 10 pairings if you like but that is a lot to ask of someone who will be dead at EoD. What I’d like you to do is be as objective as you can in judging the sincerity of our analyses.

There’s plenty of time. Let’s solve this.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Voted for myself cause I’m the only one I trust.

I’d shoot Boo at this point based on the idea he has been scummiest in a vacuum and we probably lose anyway if he’s town so we might as well lose now or kick the van down the road.

Plus forcing GMan and Wilgy to case each other and pour wine all over me sounds like a great way to turn things around.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I think FG has the most natural antialignment with Drago. I think that [mention]DrWilgy[/mention] and [mention]G-Man[/mention] and [mention]Hyena[/mention] can all agree that her interactions with me yesterday should clear her and me from being teamed.

Her reaction to my pushes seemed entirely townminded. I don’t think she wanted to shoot Nanook. I think she was scared to shoot me or Boo but wanted to shoot Boo.

I think we can all agree to just let any scumteam with FG just win at this point. Is that fair?

[G-Man]

Quick elimination-

My six POE pairings are:

Boo & DrWilgy
Boo & Funnygurl
Boo & Jack
DrWilgy & Funnygurl
DrWilgy & Jack
Funnygurl & Jack


The easiest one for me to eliminate is Boo & Jack. This pairing only exists in the wild frontier of tinfoil for me. Jack vs Boo feels too similar to Jack vs Nanook. That much animosity is hard to fake. I can theorize how it might fit together, but it’s all too cute, and I see logistical flaws to them trying to steer us to this point on Day 5. If it is that pairing, then they have damaged my ability to trust anyone ever again.

This leaves me with:
Boo & DrWilgy
Boo & Funnygurl
DrWilgy & Funnygurl
DrWilgy & Jack
Funnygurl & Jack

Linki:
I think you’re probably correct about Funnygurl, Jack. I want to look at her pairings before the others to see if she can be eliminated from the POE altogether.