Champions 2019 - Crisis on The Syndicate [Day 4]

[Sloonei]

Given that we appear to be the middle of three levels, and that the smallest group contains just three players and one confirmed scum, I am not feeling much urgency about this lynch.

If we’re following the same pattern as the original game, the 3-person limbo-lylo will resolve today and all the dream levels will collapse back into one. In that scenario our lynch doesn’t produce any tangible result. I don’t know what the purpose of our level is in that case, but my instinct is still to lynch the player I am most suspicious of just to be on the safe side. My tinfoil on Michelle is the most substantive negative read that I have right now. However, this theory hinges somewhat on her being the anti-monitor, who will have -2 votes applied to her. Maybe the best strategy to ensure we learn something today is to put Michelle one vote ahead of a second candidate.

But that’s just me pursuing my own pet suspicion that no one else seem on board with.

[juliets]

[mention]G-Man[/mention] Michelle is a real mixed bag. The worst thing I see about her is after listing all these things about speed that she says are suspicious she turns around and votes me because I narrowed down my POE to her and speed. The things she said about me seemed to be just slinging things at me to see what would stick.

Other than that, I only see a couple of minor things. See what you think after finishing your read.

linki Sloonei

Also I have to stop and eat. I'll be as quick as possible.

[juliets]

I think that's the fastest I've ever eaten.

Ok [mention]G-Man[/mention] let me know what you think when you finish.

[G-Man]

We have this thread.

Of course we do. Part of that thread is the vote data that I posted. Ignoring it would be unwise.

I do not propose that we ignore it. I’m just saying that it’s an incomplete picture for me.

Based on the content in this thread alone, I like the direction of Michelle’s posts better than speedchuck’s, if that serves as an answer to your question.

On the issue of Speed and Michelle, your opinion of Michelle has gotten worse. How has your opinion of Speedchuck changed, if at all?

[Sloonei]

We have this thread.

Of course we do. Part of that thread is the vote data that I posted. Ignoring it would be unwise.

I do not propose that we ignore it. I’m just saying that it’s an incomplete picture for me.

Based on the content in this thread alone, I like the direction of Michelle’s posts better than speedchuck’s, if that serves as an answer to your question.

On the issue of Speed and Michelle, your opinion of Michelle has gotten worse. How has your opinion of Speedchuck changed, if at all?

The needle has not moved much. I think I'd side with him in the argument with Michelle, but that's not much.

[Sloonei]

I did not have a firm read on either of them coming into this day, to be clear. I still don't.

[juliets]

Looking back on my notes about speed the most bothersome thing was I didn't get a good feel for why he went back and forth twice Mac - sig - Mac - sig with his vote, per his answer to Jay. Seems like that would be memorable but I don't know that last day was such a mess.

[Sloonei]

Looking back on my notes about speed the most bothersome thing was I didn't get a good feel for why he went back and forth twice Mac - sig - Mac - sig with his vote, per his answer to Jay. Seems like that would be memorable but I don't know that last day was such a mess.

I thought it was odd that he forgot (or claimed to forget) who he voted for yesterday, but "odd" does not necessarily equal bad. I might even be inclined to say it looks good.

[juliets]

Looking back on my notes about speed the most bothersome thing was I didn't get a good feel for why he went back and forth twice Mac - sig - Mac - sig with his vote, per his answer to Jay. Seems like that would be memorable but I don't know that last day was such a mess.

I thought it was odd that he forgot (or claimed to forget) who he voted for yesterday, but "odd" does not necessarily equal bad. I might even be inclined to say it looks good.

Funny, I had the exact same reaction there.

[G-Man]

Okay, here’s my pecking order:

G-Man

Michelle

JaggedJimmyJay

Juliets

Sloonei & Speedchuck

More after the kids are in bed (which should have been 30 minutes ago )

[juliets]

I don't know why I'm waiting to talk this over with [mention]G-Man[/mention] when he thinks I'm orange.

[Sloonei]

Are speed and I linked, or are we individually suspicious?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

She was decently compatible with Mac per my prior analyses, and I cannot confidently tell you that she is a civilian.

Another vote also helps assuage anti-monitor concerns w/ -2 thing. I’m drunk. Maybe will check in again, cannot make guarantees. Okay bye!

[Sloonei]

IF we don't think this lynch will kill anyone and IF we want to test out the "michelle is the anti-monitor" theory, g-man and juliets can vote for speedchuck.

[Sloonei]

i'm not interested in experimenting with any of the other lives, sorry speed.

[juliets]

Ok, I guess I don't need to wait and talk things over with G-Man anymore due to Jay's vote. It's close to a toss up for me on who to vote. I'm concerned that the vibe I get coming off Michelle could just be because she was busy (so hasn't been around as much in the main thread) and that she just got emotional when she saw I narrowed down my POE to she and speed.

Speed gives me real pause over his inability to explain the Mac-sig-Mac-sig movement of his vote. I think this puts him a little bit below Michelle and so I'm going to vote for him today.

[juliets]

I'm very hopeful that we don't end up really lynching anyone today.

[juliets]

I forgot

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

[G-Man]

I don't know why I'm waiting to talk this over with [mention]G-Man[/mention] when he thinks I'm orange.

Orange within the confined of of this mini-thread. I tried to make it as yellow-orange as possible, because there's a wide gap between you and my bottom two. The first color that I selected for your name looked funny. This is the best I got.

Now for the details:

G-Man

Duh.

Michelle

I kept her in yellow-green, because I realize that the data we're working with is limited. Between her D1 vote for Radish and what Sloonei wrote about incompatibility with Team Mac, I just don't see her as bad. I have little to feel good about her, but I have nothing to feel bad about her. Did she get testy during D4? Yes, but I read her snips and snaps more as frustration than baddie venom rising to the surface. If she is bad, then I've entered the Useful Idiot stage that I hoped to avoid.

JaggedJimmyJay
I'm going to have to revisit his D1 posts (if I have time), because I just don't know what to make of him. He's distracted by grad work. I get that. I've just never seen distracted Jay before, I guess. He's been content to be more of an observer than an active force today, which weirds me out, but I'm trying to not tin-foil and accuse him of coasting in the shadow of a busy RL.

Juliets
First, I can't remember how many times I've seen baddie juliets. She has seemed agreeable and non-committal, but that's also sort of how juliets operates, I think. This is more of a tin-foil read, because I still think that one of JJJ, Sloonei, or Juliets is compatible with Team Mac based on rough vote analysis alone. That's always been where my gut goes to.

Sloonei & Speedchuck
These two are tied. I can't shake the idea that Sloonei tried to set me up early, but he recovered well enough as juicier options came to light. He's on my vote analysis watch list too. There's just something I don't like about him this game. He's a great player and he knows how to string a post together. I recognize and am wary of his skills. Speedchuck's vote pattern strikes me as Mac-aligned, but it is incomplete because he didn't get to vote D1. His posts seem more desperate in trying to walk back suspicion of him. Also, who forgets who they voted for the day before? I feel like that's shady.

I'm willing to vote for Speedchuck, because I don't see anyone joining me against Sloonei. If not Speedchuck, then I'll be inclined to pressure Sloonei more tomorrow.

linki- well, then, there we all are, I guess?

[juliets]

Thanks for going ahead and posting all your thoughts about people [mention]G-Man[/mention]. I understand what you are saying about me. I'm town but I get where you are coming from.

[Sloonei]

I've voted for scum 3 days out of 3 and that makes me a red read. Multiball is weird.

[juliets]

I don't know if I'm going to make it to the reveal. It depends on how long we have to wait.

[G-Man]

I've voted for scum 3 days out of 3 and that makes me a red read. Multiball is weird.

Only one side of the multi-ball. Wouldn’t you find that curious if it were someone other than you?

[Sloonei]

I've voted for scum 3 days out of 3 and that makes me a red read. Multiball is weird.

Only one side of the multi-ball. Wouldn’t you find that curious if it were someone other than you?

I'm not objecting. Just observing and whining.

[juliets]

Ok guys, I gotta go to bed. The clocks go forward tonight so even though it only looks like 10:20 ish it's really 11:20 ish. See everyone in the morning (or some of you anyway).

[Sloonei]

Ok guys, I gotta go to bed. The clocks go forward tonight so even though it only looks like 10:20 ish it's really 11:20 ish. See everyone in the morning (or some of you anyway).

[VOTE: juliets] aubergine for reminding me about this tbh

[Michelle]

Good morning. I've skimmed the thread and I will read through later, is just too early for this.

I see JJJ is sticking with his analysis, this is painful to see after the Girls game went so wrong. Hope he can wide his vision, reevaluation is needed.

[Michelle]

Soooo uh, Sig is bad then

Speed shouldn't have a better grasp over the game than this?

Oooooooooookay.

Were all those roles on the civvie list?

Subsequently,are all those people really dead if this is Inception-land?

I'm assuming sig is bad because of the flavortext in the above post. Architect with anti-monitor

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] you already suspected sig isn't it? I would expect some joy noticing he is revealed now as scum.

Let's continue our convo, I wish to understand you.

[Michelle]

I have a very specific tinfoil about Michelle. It relies on more If's than I'd like, and her recent vote change to juliets may point in another direction, but it's on my mind and I want to get it out there.

Part of the premise of this theory is that sig triggered the "inception" phase that we are currently in (his role, The Architect, is a character from Inception/Inception Mafia and he was likely to be lynched today, so it would have been his last chance to trigger this mechanic which could theoretically be hidden in the role's *secrets*), so if you don't care about that theory then feel free to skip the rest of this post. I am not convinced that it's the case, but it's a possibility that I recognize.

We're a small group of 6. None of us, as far as I'm aware, could have anticipated that the threads were going to be split up today, let alone which group we'd placed in or who we'd be placed in a group with... unless we are responsible for triggering the mechanic. If this was sig's doing, his partner (the anti-monitor) would be in on it as well. In Inception Mafia, the roster was split up mostly at random each time a new thread was created, but the mafia team had slight control over which players submerged onto each level.

Michelle entered today having already compiled a big clump of posts from speedchuck in the original thread before the split happened. Speedchuck also happens to be one of the 5 players she shares this thread with. It looks extremely convenient that, in such a small and presumably random group of players, Michelle was prepared to attack one of us before the day began. Of course, it's not impossible that this is all pure coincidence, that she had singled out speedchuck as a Player To Read during the night, and then she happened to get put into a new thread with him by sheer luck during the day. speedchuck is a viable candidate to be lynched, and if the mafia team does have some control over where players are going, he wouldn't be the worst option for a player who wants to have a scapegoat in their group. Of course, Michelle is currently voting for Juliets, which complicates things somewhat but doesn't entirely erase my initial concern. I've also had no reason to associate Michelle with any of the anti-monitor members prior to now. She voted for Radishes on an abbreviated Day 1, then Turnip Head on Day 2 when Radishes was lynched, and Mac on Day 3 when sig was the counterwagon.

None of this constitutes a read on speedchuck himself, as he could very well be a member of the other team. Without the other thread I have no direct evidence to link him there, obviously.

Wasn't the tinfoil a speculation over a town read who can turn bad if certain ideas you have may be true?
You didn't read me town from the get go, so how come you have a tinfoil?

The cyan is a grave accusation and fits convenientely with JJJs theory, indirectly pocketing him. This is well written and I have no doubt that if Sloonei is mafia I can't fight with him because I just can't construct in english a proper defense.

The orange is a supposition and I already explained why I choose to Iso Speed and why I posted the quotes raw. No one took a stance then about the content, but Juliets asked me oppinion like she is curious about it. In fact she wanted a tool to backfire at me. I was conscient about this and I waited to see if she will be objective about me or not. She wasn't and when I saw her opportunism I voted her.

The idea of me preparing an attack on Speed knowing we will be separated in a dream and with whom is contradicted by the fact the quotes are not from the complete Iso, but from the first part and this is not enough to form a solid accusation because the later posts were more game related and full of content. I didn't have time to finish the Iso so I didn't know.

[Michelle]

Base reads for these players:

Sloonei: doubtful for either mafia team by interaction, looks like a civilian to me at face value
juliets: doubtful for either mafia team by interaction, looks like a civilian to me at face value
Michelle: conceivable Mac connection, has seemed mostly genuine in limited appearances
speedchuck: conceivable Mac connection, doesn't look great at face value either
G-Man: conceivable Radish connection, hasn't provided much to the hunting effort, at times has seemed earnest in response to pressure

But while Sloonei accused me of being part of Sig's team, i see now JJJ saw me part of Mac's team
this is priceless guys, you made me laugh.

[Michelle]

cya later, rl calls

[G-Man]

Odd to see no host post yet. Like Tom Petty sang, the waiting is the hardest part.

[juliets]

I have a very specific tinfoil about Michelle. It relies on more If's than I'd like, and her recent vote change to juliets may point in another direction, but it's on my mind and I want to get it out there.

Part of the premise of this theory is that sig triggered the "inception" phase that we are currently in (his role, The Architect, is a character from Inception/Inception Mafia and he was likely to be lynched today, so it would have been his last chance to trigger this mechanic which could theoretically be hidden in the role's *secrets*), so if you don't care about that theory then feel free to skip the rest of this post. I am not convinced that it's the case, but it's a possibility that I recognize.

We're a small group of 6. None of us, as far as I'm aware, could have anticipated that the threads were going to be split up today, let alone which group we'd placed in or who we'd be placed in a group with... unless we are responsible for triggering the mechanic. If this was sig's doing, his partner (the anti-monitor) would be in on it as well. In Inception Mafia, the roster was split up mostly at random each time a new thread was created, but the mafia team had slight control over which players submerged onto each level.

Michelle entered today having already compiled a big clump of posts from speedchuck in the original thread before the split happened. Speedchuck also happens to be one of the 5 players she shares this thread with. It looks extremely convenient that, in such a small and presumably random group of players, Michelle was prepared to attack one of us before the day began. Of course, it's not impossible that this is all pure coincidence, that she had singled out speedchuck as a Player To Read during the night, and then she happened to get put into a new thread with him by sheer luck during the day. speedchuck is a viable candidate to be lynched, and if the mafia team does have some control over where players are going, he wouldn't be the worst option for a player who wants to have a scapegoat in their group. Of course, Michelle is currently voting for Juliets, which complicates things somewhat but doesn't entirely erase my initial concern. I've also had no reason to associate Michelle with any of the anti-monitor members prior to now. She voted for Radishes on an abbreviated Day 1, then Turnip Head on Day 2 when Radishes was lynched, and Mac on Day 3 when sig was the counterwagon.

None of this constitutes a read on speedchuck himself, as he could very well be a member of the other team. Without the other thread I have no direct evidence to link him there, obviously.

Wasn't the tinfoil a speculation over a town read who can turn bad if certain ideas you have may be true?
You didn't read me town from the get go, so how come you have a tinfoil?

The cyan is a grave accusation and fits convenientely with JJJs theory, indirectly pocketing him. This is well written and I have no doubt that if Sloonei is mafia I can't fight with him because I just can't construct in english a proper defense.

The orange is a supposition and I already explained why I choose to Iso Speed and why I posted the quotes raw. No one took a stance then about the content, but Juliets asked me oppinion like she is curious about it. In fact she wanted a tool to backfire at me. I was conscient about this and I waited to see if she will be objective about me or not. She wasn't and when I saw her opportunism I voted her.

The idea of me preparing an attack on Speed knowing we will be separated in a dream and with whom is contradicted by the fact the quotes are not from the complete Iso, but from the first part and this is not enough to form a solid accusation because the later posts were more game related and full of content. I didn't have time to finish the Iso so I didn't know.

Michelle, first I don't think it's at all odd that after you published all those speedchuck quotes without any opinion about them I would ask you for your opinion. You're the one who collected them, I assumed you had some kind of opinion or you wouldn't have posted them. I always ask questions like that, it is a hallmark of my style.

Second, your assertion that I wanted a tool to back fire to you is just flat wrong. What gives you than impression?

I'm going to assume when you say you were "conscient" about this you mean you were conscious of it. You say you waited to see if I would be objective and I wasn't. Why do you say that? I looked at your analysis with an open mind and I responded honestly to what I saw point by point. If you had an issue with any of my points why didn't you say you did after I posted so we could have talked it out? That's what townies do, they talk things out. Instead, you waited until now to say anything about it and you weren't specific about anything I said.

You also say I showed opportunism. Could you point out where? Opportunism about what? That word gets used a lot in mafia and half the time I don't know what people are even saying.

On the whole you seemed to be fine with me until I posted that you and speed were in my POE. Then, you started throwing accusations out there with no specifics to back them up. Meanwhile, earlier you made a long post indicating you were suspicious of speed and pointed out specifics of why. You then later said to Jay you found him suspicious, yet instead of voting for him you voted for me with no specifics. I just don't get this. Last night I said you reacted emotionally to my POE and I'm still inclined to believe that but I'm getting a little suspicious that you are trying to paint me with a broad brush instead of pinpointing what is making you suspicious. I'm requesting that you do that instead of continuing to put those broad accusations out there.

[juliets]

Odd to see no host post yet. Like Tom Petty sang, the waiting is the hardest part.

Yeah I don't know what is going on. Very odd.

[juliets]

Maybe it was so late by the time LC was ready to post that he decided to hold off so the new time would not be in the middle of the night.

[G-Man]

Maybe it was so late by the time LC was ready to post that he decided to hold off so the new time would not be in the middle of the night.

Optimistic but also problematic. I remember during Polka Heist how civvies started analyzing the posts during the lag between end of phase and the lynch/night post. That’s why I started locking the thread during those lag times.

[juliets]

Maybe it was so late by the time LC was ready to post that he decided to hold off so the new time would not be in the middle of the night.

Optimistic but also problematic. I remember during Polka Heist how civvies started analyzing the posts during the lag between end of phase and the lynch/night post. That’s why I started locking the thread during those lag times.

What was the problem with them analyzing posts?

[G-Man]

On the few times it happened at the beginning of the game, I felt it gave the civvies an unfair advantage to analyze posts during that lag. They civ-cleard a few people based on their reactions and responses, and I think zeroed in on one of the baddies. It was an unnatural pause that gave a considerable boost to the civvies who figured out how to use it to their advantage. I felt that it wasn’t fair to the baddies to have to navigate that because they normally wouldn’t have to.

[juliets]

On the few times it happened at the beginning of the game, I felt it gave the civvies an unfair advantage to analyze posts during that lag. They civ-cleard a few people based on their reactions and responses, and I think zeroed in on one of the baddies. It was an unnatural pause that gave a considerable boost to the civvies who figured out how to use it to their advantage. I felt that it wasn’t fair to the baddies to have to navigate that because they normally wouldn’t have to.

Huh, very interesting. I have never noticed that happening before. So are you saying maybe we should not post during this lag?

[juliets]

Well it's time for me to go to the gym anyway. I'm leaving several tabs open so it will probably look like I am here. I'll be back later this morning.

[speedchuck]

Soooo uh, Sig is bad then

Speed shouldn't have a better grasp over the game than this?

Oooooooooookay.

Were all those roles on the civvie list?

Subsequently,are all those people really dead if this is Inception-land?

I'm assuming sig is bad because of the flavortext in the above post. Architect with anti-monitor

@speedchuck you already suspected sig isn't it? I would expect some joy noticing he is revealed now as scum.

Let's continue our convo, I wish to understand you.

Joy is also an emotion. I am not very emotionally involved in this game, beyond just having fun in it.

In addition, I was considering whether the sig slip was a real slip in the main thread. Those posts were quickly invalidated.

I'm not sure what you wish to understand. I'm very not sure what your read on me is anyway.

[juliets]

I'm back and see there's still no EOD post. Is anyone here?

[juliets]

I guess not. I'll come back later.

[Michelle]

I'm back and see there's still no EOD post. Is anyone here?

Opportunism for you means to vote in the wagon wjo has most votes.
I don't trust you, sorry about that.

Imagine if I am wrong my green flip. Who is the baddie here?
If you are wolf my question is pointless.

[Michelle]

On the few times it happened at the beginning of the game, I felt it gave the civvies an unfair advantage to analyze posts during that lag. They civ-cleard a few people based on their reactions and responses, and I think zeroed in on one of the baddies. It was an unnatural pause that gave a considerable boost to the civvies who figured out how to use it to their advantage. I felt that it wasn’t fair to the baddies to have to navigate that because they normally wouldn’t have to.

Huh, very interesting. I have never noticed that happening before. So are you saying maybe we should not post during this lag?

Posting in this time is in town advantage, why not using it? How come your sugestion comes from a towny mindset?
Townies acknoledging each other is fearsome?

Also sorry for any typo and for the confusion with a french word. It happens

[Michelle]

Soooo uh, Sig is bad then

Speed shouldn't have a better grasp over the game than this?

Oooooooooookay.

Were all those roles on the civvie list?

Subsequently,are all those people really dead if this is Inception-land?

I'm assuming sig is bad because of the flavortext in the above post. Architect with anti-monitor

@speedchuck you already suspected sig isn't it? I would expect some joy noticing he is revealed now as scum.

Let's continue our convo, I wish to understand you.

Joy is also an emotion. I am not very emotionally involved in this game, beyond just having fun in it.

In addition, I was considering whether the sig slip was a real slip in the main thread. Those posts were quickly invalidated.

I'm not sure what you wish to understand. I'm very not sure what your read on me is anyway.

I want to understand your alignament. My own read should not count, but you are not so curious about me, which means you consider me scum and this is sad if you are villager.

What do you think about anyone else?

[juliets]

On the few times it happened at the beginning of the game, I felt it gave the civvies an unfair advantage to analyze posts during that lag. They civ-cleard a few people based on their reactions and responses, and I think zeroed in on one of the baddies. It was an unnatural pause that gave a considerable boost to the civvies who figured out how to use it to their advantage. I felt that it wasn’t fair to the baddies to have to navigate that because they normally wouldn’t have to.

Huh, very interesting. I have never noticed that happening before. So are you saying maybe we should not post during this lag?

Posting in this time is in town advantage, why not using it? How come your sugestion comes from a towny mindset?
Townies acknoledging each other is fearsome?

Also sorry for any typo and for the confusion with a french word. It happens

I'm fine posting in this time. In fact you can see that because when I came back from the gym I came here and posted. If LC thought it was a problem either he or Black Rock would have been here by now. Nobody was here to talk to when I returned from the gym so I left again. You seem to be tunneling me.

Don't worry about the French word it is no big deal.

[juliets]

If you want to talk some things through [mention]Michelle[/mention] now would be a good time.

[juliets]

I'm back and see there's still no EOD post. Is anyone here?

Opportunism for you means to vote in the wagon wjo has most votes.
I don't trust you, sorry about that.

Imagine if I am wrong my green flip. Who is the baddie here?
If you are wolf my question is pointless.

Michelle, I did not vote in the wagon with the most votes. I voted speedchuck who had no votes at the time.

I'm not sure what you mean by "imagine if I am wrong my green flip". Do you mean what if you flip town? I did not vote for you so that's what I would expect. My guess is speed is the baddie here.

[juliets]

By the way everyone who changed to daylight savings time last night you need to adjust your time on this board by going to User Control Panel > Board preferences > My timezone and correct the time zone. The correct time for me was in the "suggested" box and it will probably be the same for you. If you don't make this correction the time you are showing for posts and end of day and stuff will be wrong and you could miss a phase end.