Champions 2019 - Crisis on The Syndicate [Day 4]

[juliets]

I have been town reading Jay and Sloonei and have vacillated on G-Man though my last read in the thread was that he is town (due to those seemingly genuine posts about lynching him to lure some scum in). That leaves Michelle and speed who I did not have a strong read on and hadn't done their ISOs. I had vague feelings about them but that isn't helpful now. So I guess my decision will be between the two of them unless something happens to change my perspective today.

I'm off to work now and will probably be there until mid to late afternoon. I'll catch up as soon as I get home.

[G-Man]

G-Man, sorry if you answered this in the main thread, I just don't remember it. What made you change your vote toward the end of EOD from sig to Mac?

On Day 3, everyone piled on Mac right away. That led Mac to amplify his griping. He made a lot of hot noise (which, in retrospect, helped provide cover for his teammates) but then the sig thing dropped. I went with Dyslexicon’s from-the-grave case against sig because I had a sharp turnaround on Dys early Day 2.

In the end, I switched back to Mac to keep things spicy at EoD and because I really didn’t want to hear Mac rant against the world for another day.

Could you elaborate on the highlighted bit?

Of all the stuff that happened Day 3, all I remember is the Mac noise and the rise of the sig train. I don’t remember any of the discussion about ‘if Mac, then ____’ or even the same for sig. That’s a win in a normal game for the baddies in the short-term, but even more so now that we’re split up with no access to the original thread to look back at. Granted, I’m not as engaged as some players, but anything that drowns out advancing the game helps the baddies.

[Michelle]

I have been town reading Jay and Sloonei and have vacillated on G-Man though my last read in the thread was that he is town (due to those seemingly genuine posts about lynching him to lure some scum in). That leaves Michelle and speed who I did not have a strong read on and hadn't done their ISOs. I had vague feelings about them but that isn't helpful now. So I guess my decision will be between the two of them unless something happens to change my perspective today.

I'm off to work now and will probably be there until mid to late afternoon. I'll catch up as soon as I get home.

Isn't convenient that you are oscilating between the only 2 who have votes until now? How is this a town!Juliets thought, when you have no infos and you don't ask significant things to us.
You are non committal and I expect you to be scum, I already noticed something is wrong about your votes, and now your behaviour is lacking town presence.

You are affraid to upset both JJJ amd Sloonei with suspicions, GMan is obviously contributing with useful things and you choose me saying you have "vague feelings" about me (it's me you're talking about, not a new unknown player) and Speed with whom I didn't finish the convo.
Your tone is slightly defesive, like you have no choice but to accuse one of us. You are a baddie in this game I am affraid.
[VOTE: Juliets] aubergine

[Sloonei]

I have a very specific tinfoil about Michelle. It relies on more If's than I'd like, and her recent vote change to juliets may point in another direction, but it's on my mind and I want to get it out there.

Part of the premise of this theory is that sig triggered the "inception" phase that we are currently in (his role, The Architect, is a character from Inception/Inception Mafia and he was likely to be lynched today, so it would have been his last chance to trigger this mechanic which could theoretically be hidden in the role's *secrets*), so if you don't care about that theory then feel free to skip the rest of this post. I am not convinced that it's the case, but it's a possibility that I recognize.

We're a small group of 6. None of us, as far as I'm aware, could have anticipated that the threads were going to be split up today, let alone which group we'd placed in or who we'd be placed in a group with... unless we are responsible for triggering the mechanic. If this was sig's doing, his partner (the anti-monitor) would be in on it as well. In Inception Mafia, the roster was split up mostly at random each time a new thread was created, but the mafia team had slight control over which players submerged onto each level.

Michelle entered today having already compiled a big clump of posts from speedchuck in the original thread before the split happened. Speedchuck also happens to be one of the 5 players she shares this thread with. It looks extremely convenient that, in such a small and presumably random group of players, Michelle was prepared to attack one of us before the day began. Of course, it's not impossible that this is all pure coincidence, that she had singled out speedchuck as a Player To Read during the night, and then she happened to get put into a new thread with him by sheer luck during the day. speedchuck is a viable candidate to be lynched, and if the mafia team does have some control over where players are going, he wouldn't be the worst option for a player who wants to have a scapegoat in their group. Of course, Michelle is currently voting for Juliets, which complicates things somewhat but doesn't entirely erase my initial concern. I've also had no reason to associate Michelle with any of the anti-monitor members prior to now. She voted for Radishes on an abbreviated Day 1, then Turnip Head on Day 2 when Radishes was lynched, and Mac on Day 3 when sig was the counterwagon.

None of this constitutes a read on speedchuck himself, as he could very well be a member of the other team. Without the other thread I have no direct evidence to link him there, obviously.

[Michelle]

Sloonei this is interesting as mechanics and you are probably right, didn't even think at it. All i know is someone is scum here. If you need a lynch on me to clear the Poe you may proceed with it, but I am villager and it will be unhealthy for town this game.

I wish to see your view over the reason I voted for Juliets please, give me your oppinion.

Another thing I wish to ask you: the voting mechanics in the dream level, wasn't for real for lynch but to move players between dream levels?

[Sloonei]

Sloonei this is interesting as mechanics and you are probably right, didn't even think at it. All i know is someone is scum here. If you need a lynch on me to clear the Poe you may proceed with it, but I am villager and it will be unhealthy for town this game.

I wish to see your view over the reason I voted for Juliets please, give me your oppinion.

Another thing I wish to ask you: the voting mechanics in the dream level, wasn't for real for lynch but to move players between dream levels?

How do you know someone is scum here?

In the original Inception game, lower-level lynches didn’t kill anyone, but I don’t know what the mechanics are in this game. Which is another big “If” in the theory I just laid out.

I’ll respond to your juliets vote separately.

[Sloonei]

I have been town reading Jay and Sloonei and have vacillated on G-Man though my last read in the thread was that he is town (due to those seemingly genuine posts about lynching him to lure some scum in). That leaves Michelle and speed who I did not have a strong read on and hadn't done their ISOs. I had vague feelings about them but that isn't helpful now. So I guess my decision will be between the two of them unless something happens to change my perspective today.

I'm off to work now and will probably be there until mid to late afternoon. I'll catch up as soon as I get home.

Isn't convenient that you are oscilating between the only 2 who have votes until now? How is this a town!Juliets thought, when you have no infos and you don't ask significant things to us.
You are non committal and I expect you to be scum, I already noticed something is wrong about your votes, and now your behaviour is lacking town presence.

You are affraid to upset both JJJ amd Sloonei with suspicions, GMan is obviously contributing with useful things and you choose me saying you have "vague feelings" about me (it's me you're talking about, not a new unknown player) and Speed with whom I didn't finish the convo.
Your tone is slightly defesive, like you have no choice but to accuse one of us. You are a baddie in this game I am affraid.
[VOTE: Juliets] aubergine

I don’t share your level of concern about juliets here. Juliets and I have butted heads earlier in this game, for instance, and I don’t feel like she’s trying to appease me right now. If she has a town read on me, it has been earned. I can’t speak for jay or her read on him, but I don’t object to that either. Given the state of this thread right now, a POE of you and speedchuck is not unreasonable. What you read as “defensive” I read as “uncertain”. Neither of you have been prominent suspects in the main thread, so this whole day is kind of a shrug.

[Sloonei]

Juliets and Jay have been town reads of varying strength for me. Given that we can’t see the other thread today, I have a hard time seeing myself being persuaded to vote for either of them based purely on this thread’s content. They’d need to tell us all they’re mafia for me to do that.

[G-Man]

Juliets and Jay have been town reads of varying strength for me. Given that we can’t see the other thread today, I have a hard time seeing myself being persuaded to vote for either of them based purely on this thread’s content. They’d need to tell us all they’re mafia for me to do that.

Only seven hours to go. Does this post suggest that you are only considering Speed and Michelle at this point, or am I still an option as well?

My problem is that I had no read on Michelle or Speed before we got Inceptioned. I can construct cases on all five of you based on the votes. I’m going to re-read this whole mini-thread before the deadline to see who’s got the worst combination of vote analysis tin foil and potential insincerity.

[Sloonei]

Juliets and Jay have been town reads of varying strength for me. Given that we can’t see the other thread today, I have a hard time seeing myself being persuaded to vote for either of them based purely on this thread’s content. They’d need to tell us all they’re mafia for me to do that.

Only seven hours to go. Does this post suggest that you are only considering Speed and Michelle at this point, or am I still an option as well?

My problem is that I had no read on Michelle or Speed before we got Inceptioned. I can construct cases on all five of you based on the votes. I’m going to re-read this whole mini-thread before the deadline to see who’s got the worst combination of vote analysis tin foil and potential insincerity.

You’re not completely off the table, but Michelle is my first choice at the moment followed by speedchuck. You’re a distant third with no alarm bells telling me to reconsider.

I’m not sure how much this lynch actually matters.

[Sloonei]

Obligatory note that if my tinfoil on michelle is correct, we’d need a big cushion to lynch her.

[G-Man]

Juliets and Jay have been town reads of varying strength for me. Given that we can’t see the other thread today, I have a hard time seeing myself being persuaded to vote for either of them based purely on this thread’s content. They’d need to tell us all they’re mafia for me to do that.

Only seven hours to go. Does this post suggest that you are only considering Speed and Michelle at this point, or am I still an option as well?

My problem is that I had no read on Michelle or Speed before we got Inceptioned. I can construct cases on all five of you based on the votes. I’m going to re-read this whole mini-thread before the deadline to see who’s got the worst combination of vote analysis tin foil and potential insincerity.

You’re not completely off the table, but Michelle is my first choice at the moment followed by speedchuck. You’re a distant third with no alarm bells telling me to reconsider.

I’m not sure how much this lynch actually matters.

Outting a baddie in a lynch post might matter. How did lynches work in your game? Did dreamland lynches reveal roles or just kick that player up a level?

[juliets]

I have been town reading Jay and Sloonei and have vacillated on G-Man though my last read in the thread was that he is town (due to those seemingly genuine posts about lynching him to lure some scum in). That leaves Michelle and speed who I did not have a strong read on and hadn't done their ISOs. I had vague feelings about them but that isn't helpful now. So I guess my decision will be between the two of them unless something happens to change my perspective today.

I'm off to work now and will probably be there until mid to late afternoon. I'll catch up as soon as I get home.

Isn't convenient that you are oscilating between the only 2 who have votes until now? How is this a town!Juliets thought, when you have no infos and you don't ask significant things to us.
You are non committal and I expect you to be scum, I already noticed something is wrong about your votes, and now your behaviour is lacking town presence.

You are affraid to upset both JJJ amd Sloonei with suspicions, GMan is obviously contributing with useful things and you choose me saying you have "vague feelings" about me (it's me you're talking about, not a new unknown player) and Speed with whom I didn't finish the convo.
Your tone is slightly defesive, like you have no choice but to accuse one of us. You are a baddie in this game I am affraid.
[VOTE: Juliets] aubergine

Michelle, what I am doing is establishing a POE. I had a suspicion of Sloonei earlier in the game but then I did a lot of work to look at his posts and came away thinking he is probably not scum. His posts since that time have read towny to me including his posts in this thread. I have vacillated on G-Man first thinking he was good and had been cursed, then thinking he wasn't cursed (which he wasn't) and was just avoiding any meaningful interactions and suspicions, and then finally believing he was good again because of the genuiness of his posts about using himself as a decoy vote to lure scum. I haven't seen anything in this thread that causes me to think otherwise. You even said he looks towny. Finally, I haven't seen anything with Jay the whole game that would cause me to read him as bad. He did a mountain of work on the interaction analyses which I don't think he would have done if he were bad and he has consistently made good posts.

You and speedchuck have been more in the background for me. I made a comment and had a slight suspicion of you because your activity has been lower and not of the same caliber as when you are a civ. I can't remember anything you have posted that makes me read you as civ. With speed the only thing I can remember is he voted for sig when I did and he has been very busy because he now has two jobs and the second job is booming. Mostly he is in my POE because of an absence of information from the main thread. That is, he hasn't done anything that I can remember that makes me say "oh yeah, he is town". In addition, in this thread I agree with Jay that his explanation for going back and forth twice with his votes on Mac and sig doesn't really explain what caused that to happen (Jay used better words than I did).

You say I am afraid to upset Sloonei and Jay. Why would I be afraid of that any more than upsetting you and speedchuck? That comment doesn't make sense to me. And I'm not sure what you mean by you didn't finish the conversation with speed and why that would have any bearing on my POE. Finally, you say I'm defensive. I'm going to have to ask you to point out specifically what you saw that leads you to believe that. I have not been defensive at all in this thread - there has been nothing to be defensive about.

[juliets]

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] I would appreciate anything you can remind me of from the main thread that you feel like I should remember as town. [mention]Michelle[/mention] same for you - what should I be remembering that would say "oh yeah, she is town".

[Sloonei]

Juliets and Jay have been town reads of varying strength for me. Given that we can’t see the other thread today, I have a hard time seeing myself being persuaded to vote for either of them based purely on this thread’s content. They’d need to tell us all they’re mafia for me to do that.

Only seven hours to go. Does this post suggest that you are only considering Speed and Michelle at this point, or am I still an option as well?

My problem is that I had no read on Michelle or Speed before we got Inceptioned. I can construct cases on all five of you based on the votes. I’m going to re-read this whole mini-thread before the deadline to see who’s got the worst combination of vote analysis tin foil and potential insincerity.

You’re not completely off the table, but Michelle is my first choice at the moment followed by speedchuck. You’re a distant third with no alarm bells telling me to reconsider.

I’m not sure how much this lynch actually matters.

Outting a baddie in a lynch post might matter. How did lynches work in your game? Did dreamland lynches reveal roles or just kick that player up a level?

No reveals. We just kicked people back up a level.

We also had private voting, and no deaths/kicks were revealed until after the night phase ended. That way the lynched player and the nightkilled player would go back up together with no indication which one was which. We did this to obscure the mafia team’s nightkill target, as revealing that info would have pseudo-confirmed that player as a civilian. We don’t have private voting here, so the mechanics are not identical. This could just be an indication that we’re only here for one phase.

[juliets]

I wondered why the night kill and lynched person moved up together. Now I know. Very clever.

[Saito]

Is there something you've forgotten? Something you would like remembered?

[Sloonei]

Is there something you've forgotten? Something you would like remembered?

[Sloonei]

Does anyone care about my Michelle theory?
What the hell is Saito puppet doing here?

[juliets]

Does anyone care about my Michelle theory?
What the hell is Saito puppet doing here?

Yes I care and I am wondering the same about the puppet. Let me take another look at your Michelle case and I'll comment.

[juliets]

Is there something you've forgotten? Something you would like remembered?

Can you give us information from the main thread?

[Saito]

Is there something you've forgotten? Something you would like remembered?

Can you give us information from the main thread?

Only once.

[juliets]

Is there something you've forgotten? Something you would like remembered?

Can you give us information from the main thread?

Only once.

Once for the whole thread or once for each of us? Can you get us someone's post record, i.e., the posts they made in the game up to the split?

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] are you seeing this? They can provide us with info from the thread!

[Michelle]

@speedchuck I would appreciate anything you can remind me of from the main thread that you feel like I should remember as town. @Michelle same for you - what should I be remembering that would say "oh yeah, she is town".

is 11:30 PM. I am too tired for this. Time zones makes me out now and if I am your lynch so be it, hope you will have fun and town will win at endgame.

Except I am villager, I have nothing to say. Good night.

[Sloonei]

Well this is a strange new development. Is Saito able to give us more information about their function here?

Also should we trust him?

[Sloonei]

@speedchuck I would appreciate anything you can remind me of from the main thread that you feel like I should remember as town. @Michelle same for you - what should I be remembering that would say "oh yeah, she is town".

is 11:30 PM. I am too tired for this. Time zones makes me out now and if I am your lynch so be it, hope you will have fun and town will win at endgame.

Except I am villager, I have nothing to say. Good night.

If I had to guess, I’d say whoever we lynch today won’t actually die.

[juliets]

Well this is a strange new development. Is Saito able to give us more information about their function here?

Also should we trust him?

I think I would trust them to give us something factual. One of us is likely to remember once reminded of something factual. What could we have them provide? What do we need the most?

[juliets]

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] re: your Michelle post, I agree that it could be the case that she knew she would be here with speedchuck and so stockpiled those posts but wouldn't she have captured them all if that was true? It does make me uneasy though.

[Sloonei]

Well this is a strange new development. Is Saito able to give us more information about their function here?

Also should we trust him?

I think I would trust them to give us something factual. One of us is likely to remember once reminded of something factual. What could we have them provide? What do we need the most?

Outside of asking them to reproduce posts (and I don’t know how we’d go about doing that), we could ask mechanical questions: how many threads are there, how many people are in X thread or Y thread, who is where, does everyone have public voting, etc.

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei re: your Michelle post, I agree that it could be the case that she knew she would be here with speedchuck and so stockpiled those posts but wouldn't she have captured them all if that was true? It does make me uneasy though.

Not necessarily. She’d only need enough to push a case, and doing too much would be overkill.

[Sloonei]

Like, does “can you reproduce Macdougall’s entire post history?” work as a request?

[juliets]

Like, does “can you reproduce Macdougall’s entire post history?” work as a request?

Yeah that's why I asked them if they could produce posts. They haven't answered yet.

[juliets]

Unfortunately I have to step away from the thread and call my mother.

[Sloonei]

I don’t think mac’s entire post history would fit in one post anyway.

Saito never said he can’t provide multiple posts of info. He also never really said that he can do anything like this at all. I have no idea. This was not a mechanic in the original game. If legit, this is an LC/BR original.

[Sloonei]

My first theory is that saito is just messing with us.

[G-Man]

Juliets and Jay have been town reads of varying strength for me. Given that we can’t see the other thread today, I have a hard time seeing myself being persuaded to vote for either of them based purely on this thread’s content. They’d need to tell us all they’re mafia for me to do that.

Only seven hours to go. Does this post suggest that you are only considering Speed and Michelle at this point, or am I still an option as well?

My problem is that I had no read on Michelle or Speed before we got Inceptioned. I can construct cases on all five of you based on the votes. I’m going to re-read this whole mini-thread before the deadline to see who’s got the worst combination of vote analysis tin foil and potential insincerity.

You’re not completely off the table, but Michelle is my first choice at the moment followed by speedchuck. You’re a distant third with no alarm bells telling me to reconsider.

I’m not sure how much this lynch actually matters.

Outting a baddie in a lynch post might matter. How did lynches work in your game? Did dreamland lynches reveal roles or just kick that player up a level?

No reveals. We just kicked people back up a level.

We also had private voting, and no deaths/kicks were revealed until after the night phase ended. That way the lynched player and the nightkilled player would go back up together with no indication which one was which. We did this to obscure the mafia team’s nightkill target, as revealing that info would have pseudo-confirmed that player as a civilian. We don’t have private voting here, so the mechanics are not identical. This could just be an indication that we’re only here for one phase.

Ok, rats. If this follows that same structure, I may be underwhelmed by this lynch. I was hoping for a lot of info reveals.

[juliets]

Well Saito didn't answer my questions so it could be they are just messing with us. We could try asking for something if we could think of something reasonable and see if they provide it.

Since there is not much happening I am going to go ahead and take a shower so I won't have to do it as we draw closer to EOD. I need to place a vote so I'll ponder while I'm gone. This is a hard decision, I'm jealous of the group that got sig in it.

[G-Man]

Okay, [mention]Sloonei[/mention], I see in one of your first posts a mention of a possible miscommunication between Mac and Michelle that made it difficult for you to see them as teammate-compatible.

Also, the face that you were mid-ISO of Mac when the Inceptioning happened, I think that lends credibility to the supposition that Michelle could have been mid-speedchuck ISO when it happened too.

Noting this now as I start my re-read. I want to keep this info in mind as I get to the compatibility theories late on here.

[Saito]

There are two other levels. They are similar to this one.

One level contains Sig, Tranq, and TonyStarkPrime. Sig has two votes, and is the current lynch leader.

The other level contains ColinIsCool, Dom, Epignosis, Jackofhearts2005, Nanook, sprityo, tedxtr, and Turnip Head. Sprityo is the lynch leader with five votes, while Epignosis and Nanook have one vote each.

So long. I must ascend.

[Sloonei]

One level contains Sig, Tranq, and TonyStarkPrime. Sig has two votes, and is the current lynch leader.

Well this is good. It might also lend credibility to the theory that sig triggered this. A 3-person thread would be a sort of Limbo, and keeping sig from winning there would be crucial if we're following a pattern similar to the original game.

[Sloonei]

Okay, Sloonei, I see in one of your first posts a mention of a possible miscommunication between Mac and Michelle that made it difficult for you to see them as teammate-compatible.

Also, the face that you were mid-ISO of Mac when the Inceptioning happened, I think that lends credibility to the supposition that Michelle could have been mid-speedchuck ISO when it happened too.

Noting this now as I start my re-read. I want to keep this info in mind as I get to the compatibility theories late on here.

My concern is that Michelle was specifically targeting speedchuck, who is in this thread with her.

[speedchuck]

Why would they be lynching Sprit? :[ Wish I could weigh in.

I'm checking in before deadline. Busy day. On the bright side, I think my audiobook will be done before this game is! (and I can start on the other one ;P)

[speedchuck]

I don't know that I trust JJJ or Sloonei but I don't think I would want to (or could) lynch them without the rest of the thread to weigh in. Both have the chance to be town MVPs.

I do think there needs to be a scum among us, if all the threads are getting a lynch. But, at the same time, that makes this split... a kinda town-sided ability? Hm. Maybe the inception isn't role related?

[speedchuck]

I don't like Michelle's responses to me in this thread but otherwise don't feel strongly about her lynch. It could be miscommunication because of the language barrier, and I wish we had more people (people experienced with michelle) to sound this out.

Nevermind about the inception thing being town-sided. I don't like it much.

[juliets]

I'm compiling a list of +/- speedchuck things and +/- Michelle things but it is laborious and isn't helping me decide between them. In fact it's serving to confuse me more. I may just stop and read the rest of the thread and make an overall judgement. This is very difficult. Maybe I have this wrong.

[G-Man]

Okay, why would Anti-Monitor Michelle vote for teammate Radish on Day 1 when she has no reason to? There was a perfectly good opportunity to vote for someone else. Unless she was going to change her vote but didn’t get the chance to when D1 ended early, I am skeptical of her being Anti-Monitor.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Shit all I can do now gang. Just gonna have to check whenever and determine any final vote.

[Sloonei]

Okay, why would Anti-Monitor Michelle vote for teammate Radish on Day 1 when she has no reason to? There was a perfectly good opportunity to vote for someone else. Unless she was going to change her vote but didn’t get the chance to when D1 ended early, I am skeptical of her being Anti-Monitor.

That’s certainly the strongest point against the theory we have in this thread. But it’s also important to remember that Day 1 ended earlier than scheduled. Some votes may not have been intended to be final.

[G-Man]

Oh, hi there, [mention]juliets[/mention], earlier in the day, you agreed that Michelle looked somewhat incompatible with Mac/Team Master. Your vote and my vote remain to be cast. Does Michelle strike you as Anti-Monitor-compatible? If not, where are you leaning? I’m on page 2 and I’m starting to doubt Michelle is bad. I’ll see how her sum total tone reads though.

[juliets]

Okay, why would Anti-Monitor Michelle vote for teammate Radish on Day 1 when she has no reason to? There was a perfectly good opportunity to vote for someone else. Unless she was going to change her vote but didn’t get the chance to when D1 ended early, I am skeptical of her being Anti-Monitor.

Yeah I agree G-Man.