The Syndicate

we've all made goofy and embarrassing mistakes in games and it's fine. just here to have fun, and you are definitely fun.

oh no [mention]tutuu[/mention] we really love playing with you and having you around!!!

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:40 am i thought i was hard to misdunk too zzz

either i no longer know how to project town or you people have very high opinions of my wolfgame

i know i went back and forth on you a fair bit but fwiw i really did get there on you on the last phase i was alive when i had used up my 5 posts. i had a long rant written up over those 8 hours that i couldn't post in which i was utterly convinced tutuu was the wolf for multiple reasons, one of which being that you and hally were both just so townie. i just never would have realized it was nanook lol. and during that whole phase i was assuming that tsp would let me post before night actually ended but since it wasn't even clear i was messaging him all frustrated but then he just locked the thread and posted my death and said he wouldn't have allowed me to post before phase change anyway, and then it was probably for the better that i didn't get to post all the bs i had written up after all lmao.

then i joined dvc and he posted the spoiler shortly thereafter and i felt a lot better because at that moment i realized that it was probably never going to be a town win and that it wouldn't be my fault lol. (@hally i commented that it in fact felt *extremely* similar to when i entered dvc for haunted by slep and was just like "....oh." in the sense that it was the one world nobody was considering and so i wouldnt even have to feel bad that it was going to be a town loss)

in retrospect it's funny bc i was scumreading nanook a bit on d1 but not really enough to go anywhere with it and then i just cleared him from the vig with everyone else.

anyway. i feel bad for the iaafr modkill and how i had been interacting with him before it. i feel bad for misreading him and amy and hally and tutuu all at various points. a lot of things went wrong this game, and it wasn't just the fault of the host or the setup or the mechs and it also wasn't just the fault of the town. there were multiple bizarre factors that combined to make this an overall extremely weird experience and, well, it's over now and we can breathe and laugh about it. and hey, at least i personally murdered a wolf.

TSP is asleep still i think but he gave me orders to lock the thread if yall hammered

i mean amy is actually lock scum now tho

unless it's you and tutuu which....i don't *think* works idk

can it be just tutuu

idk im done thinking until next phase if i live

and that's all my posts for the night lol rip

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:19 pm if that person doesn’t die and gets hit with amy’s ability, i will assume i actually redirected her and that she mechanically cannot be the last wolf

i mean. obviously this works if you're her teammate lol

think it's quite possible it's just amy, and hally is town

hally still really feels honest and towny to me overall

the only hangup is what tutuu's been saying about them refusing to go after amy yesterday, and it could be because stalling for another day could basically win them the game if they are mafia together.

but i think no matter what, assuming parity isn't just fucking reached overnight if lc can win with them or whatever, i think we just always yeet amy tomorrow and if that ends the game then great.

yeah im sorry tutuu believing the last post I read is a persistent problem that i always have lol

you were right all along

im sorry for everything this game is a mess lol

i guess we're back to hally redirecting amy

gl

oh fuck i didn't know the thread was locked again gj me guess i lose more posts lmao

does this mean rabbit is getting mked after all

well.

i really think iaafr is just outed with some of the stuff he's said and his overall tone being wrong and the way he's approached amy (and me tbh) all game

but i should acknowledge there's still a chance of amy w and so yeah we probably do just yeet lc today and see what happens overnight

glgl

Literally outed

Amy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:32 am My village game is 10x better late than early anyways.

iaafr wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:52 pm I'm SO MAD AMY DIDNT DIE D3 I FUCKING HATE THIS GAME

this isn't town iaafr lmaoooooo it just isn't

Spoiler: show

Amy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:24 am Mmm. OK. Here's what I'm marinating. Remember that world I called too easy where MR/rabbit/tutuu were the wolves? I'm back there.

Some level 1 KZA wagon stuff: of living players, Nanook myself nutella LC and Hally were all on KZA. tutuu and iaafr were on Hally (well, iaafr joke selfvoted when it didn't matter, but he made a move towards Hally at a time when it definitely did). If KZA wasn't bussed, that just solves the game right there.

But OK, that's too level one on its own. Let's backburner that and continue.

Every player alive wanted bob dead after D1. Every player alive wanted Radishes dead after D1. No cred should be given for simply wolfreading these people.

Thing is, Hally was burying MR since even before the botched Nanook interaction. And the botched Nanook interaction was REALLY bad. So I think Radishes was a wolf, and I don't think Hally bussed him.

So you're the last 2 wolves on N1. KZA just got dunked. MR is consensus. Bob is consensus. You need to go deep. What do you do in that situation?

If you're not consensus town, you kill the people who are, so that you can take control of the threadstate. If you ARE consensus town, you start killing the PoE to maintain plausible deniability.

Now, obviously it's hard to call the N1 kill target if you assume Radishes was a wolf, because Hally claimed a redirect. But here's the thing: LC lost a vest, yeah? And he's 80% action immune. I somewhat think it's unlikely that the redirect would succeed and then the kill would ALSO succeed, yeah? Unless I'm misinterpreting the minutiae of LC's role.

So what if the wolves tried to kill LC anyways?

Think about it: it fits the pattern of their later kills. Tim wasn't consensus but had a decent PR; Colin wasn't consensus but had a decent PR; WWH was about as nonconsensus as a greenpeek could feasibly be. LC was a mid tier and had previously softed his role in ways that could be interpreted as an obvious, and potentially good, PR. The pattern is there.

The question then becomes "who would try to kill Long Con?" Hally and nutella were somewhat PoE-ish, and would probably shoot at the top tier villagers, who at the time were... tutuu and iaafr. Actually they'd probably both be aiming at iaafr in the level 1 world - he hadn't launched into the mechanical tinfoil on their slots yet, but he was certainly not strongly townreading either of them, and makes a lot of sense as an N1 kill from a team with those players on it.

tutuu and iaafr, on the other hand, both would have a vested interest in not thinning out the top of people's townlists. They would need cover. They would shoot LC.

Phase 2 was always going to be bussing bob. I think any wolfteam would want bob to die before Radishes, and I think faking a redpeek was always part of the plan. I doubt they anticipated the MR kill OR the bob dayvig, which probably accelerated the timetable to uncomfortable degrees.

Hally will ask "why fake a redcheck to bus?" The answer is twofold: it gives you mad cred if no other cop claims, and it massacres discussion for the day. If you're going to bus, you might as well do it in a way that gives town basically nothing to work with. This is part of why Nanook is never a tinfoil until f3; that shot is stupidly protown and is literally only useful if he's a lone wolf trying to survive to endgame - and he's never w/w with MR, so he's never a lone wolf, so he's just town.

But anyways. If they're wolves, rabbit and tutuu acquired cred through a D2 powerbus, have killed mid-tier townies to lend feasibility their own survival, and are generally trying very very hard to get myself or Hally dunked. rabbit's wanted me dead from the word go; his tunnel's been occasionally justified by my lack of effort, but I think I've espoused some legitimately townie viewpoints to the degree that if he's legitimately a villager and hasn't found me yet, he has some ridiculous preconceived notions on how hard I'm able to project town as a villager. tutuu's posting... hasn't been wolfy, really. She's erratic in a way that's probably NAI for her given her general personality, but there's definitely some depth of thought. I'm just... not sure it's not fakeable, and I think she fits too well as a wolf in the gamestate. I think claiming a failed check on Hally was largely an attempt to bury me or them somehow, and I think the fact that they're still alive and none of their checks died until last night is the single biggest indictment of them.

There's a chance that I'm wrong, in which case it's like. Idk always nutella probably? nutella/hally would probably have to be it but. I honestly don't think it's nutella/Hally at this point, I think they're playing like villagers who have found each other. I don't like nutella's play that much in a vacuum but I'm really coming around on Hally here.

And I kinda wanna kill LC anyways. I'm willing to bank the game on there not being 3 wolves left and we can all loltsp in postgame if there are. I think another night of mechanics is good, and I think the opportunity for me to bounce off people in real time is VERY good.

Thinking further, I think the thing that confuses me the most is tutuu's insistence that Hally would be trying to bury me if they were a v, and vice-versa. Like... we know that LC's claimed 3p. v!Hally knows a failed redirect isn't w/w indicative, and I know that it isn't w!Hally trying to manufacture a redcheck because their reaction to LC's claim made it really fucking obvious that they actually expected their redirect to succeed. Neither of us has any reason to bury the other. The perspective that we should be? Is super off. Unless I'm bad and missing something. But I don't think I am.

I'm not voting until EOD probably. I want to discuss this in real-time and everyone except the 3p is out of posts, I think. Sorry for the monologue. I kinda think LC's the best bet for safety reasons ATM? But I think iaafr/tutuu's the most likely team. MR wolf makes nutella lock v and it makes Hally v make too much sense. You're sold on Hally being a wolf? Explain how they're w/w with MR, or explain why MR is v, and either way find a partner for them that isn't me, because I continue to know my own alignment and it continues to be town.

37/60

this makes.......so much sense

lol im sold on iaafr tutuu gj

I'm fine with yeeting amy or lc today, if the majority thinks it's mechanically better to yeet lc i....still disagree but can go along with it. we can see what happens with hally's redirect overnight i guess.

Amy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:55 pm The N4 peek having failed is honestly the other key to solving the mystery. If real, where have the other blocks been? If fake, why did tutuu choose to claim it?

yeah the hally=ascetic thing is the most compelling solution to this i think

or you're not a roleblocker and tutuu was right about hally being ascetic i guess. i felt like i had a decent handle on tutuu's solves last night and now it's all kind of a blur

also everyone is going on about "town power too OP hurr durr" but like. we eliminated 2-3 wolves very early and don't know what abilities they would have had. the wolf team probably would have been pretty strongly powered if we hadn't gotten straight to dunking them. and yeah it looks like they still have a roleblocker remaining

Amy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:46 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:44 pm i think the possible worlds assuming LC is 3p are 4/2/1 with amy/hally or tutuu/hally (what about hally/iaafr does that work??), or 5/1/1 with amy or tutuu (??)

idk i'm probably forgetting something again that makes one of these not make sense
I still don't understand why you think the game could ever play out like it has if I were the lone wolf remaining but OK.

Also the town power thing I talked about a few posts ago.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:44 pm wait i thought day was ending today omg sorry @TonyStarkPrime
Oh. That explains the panic I guess lol.

30/60

i mean you'd be a roleblocker here imo

i think the possible worlds assuming LC is 3p are 4/2/1 with amy/hally or tutuu/hally (what about hally/iaafr does that work??), or 5/1/1 with amy or tutuu (??)

idk i'm probably forgetting something again that makes one of these not make sense

Amy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:20 pm given what nutella said about how the third world is apparently still possible on this site and doesn't count as parity >_>

i didnt say that and don't think it's true????

i actually had a slightly weirder theory on lc's details but having thought more that idea was probably just crazy lol

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:11 am
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:08 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:05 am I don’t super love Nutella blindly believing the 3p claim as entirely accurate tbh

There’s no tangible reason to think LC is actually pro town
i dont think we can 100% assume he's not a thread but he's definitely not our priority to yeet today wtf
I mean today is the only day we really can kill him? If it’s possible for him to scum side and there’s two alive, he just does tomorrow and we lose

How is this not something that occurs to you ???

mmmmf maybe

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:09 am
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:02 am
iaafr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:00 am
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:59 pm i still dont see why we need to yeet lc as he can potentially win with town

but if we're not 100% sure on amy ig whatever
are you mostly locked into a hally amy poe atp like i am

and who do you think should go first rn

my only other option is to tinfoil you/tutuu
i think it's prob amy/hally yeah

would prob go for either at this point honestly but still lean amy being more lock wolf i think?

but that last hally post hard pushing a plan with the redirect is... smelly
here is the thing

i’m actually town

i’m not convinced there are in fact two mafia left. i think it could still just be one plus one or two 3P

i know yeeting lc will not lose us this game

i know that i will be able to mechanically out amy tonight if she is the last mafia and i’m not blocked

OR that tutuu will be able to get off a peek on me

there is a potential obviously that mafia will kill tutuu and block me

but if they block me redirecting any we will know because of her role

and i think if they were ever going to kill tutuu she’d be dead by now

and tim’s security thing can still out mafia if they try, which could be game losing for them. so i expect they won’t

i think it’s likely then that we have SOME reliable mech info after this night that could actually lock the game

you don’t trust me obviously and this is fine. but i know that i’m town and that i can potentially provide crucial information. so i urge you to actually give me that chance

okay

but what about

we just yeet amy today

and THEN IF THE GAME DOESNT JUST FUCKING END WE CAN TRY TO CLEAR YOU

how does that sound

iaafr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:08 am
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:08 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:05 am I don’t super love Nutella blindly believing the 3p claim as entirely accurate tbh

There’s no tangible reason to think LC is actually pro town
i dont think we can 100% assume he's not a thread but he's definitely not our priority to yeet today wtf
is there a reason to you amy/lc isnt a possible scumworld

lc's claim is believable

that's really it, i mean it could be amy/lc and lc cooked up a wildly plausible and plausibly wild claim that fits with his earlier stuff in the thread

but im p sure he's just what he says

in any case amy is a wolf

iaafr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:06 am god u sound so fake so often i dont understand why hally is townreading you

like is that even a real thought? theyve been "fullclaimed" and locked into being somewhat accountable for their actions, how could they manipulate actions to make themselves more clear?

i mean. how does them claiming to redirect their teammate ever result in clearing anything

????

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:05 am I don’t super love Nutella blindly believing the 3p claim as entirely accurate tbh

There’s no tangible reason to think LC is actually pro town

i dont think we can 100% assume he's not a thread but he's definitely not our priority to yeet today wtf

like holy shit yeeting lc is not our wincon here. hally is just openly advocating for the scum agenda rn. wasting a yeet on townsiding 3p and using another night of fucky mech to hopefully clear their teammate. yeah no thanks

iaafr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:00 am
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:59 pm i still dont see why we need to yeet lc as he can potentially win with town

but if we're not 100% sure on amy ig whatever
are you mostly locked into a hally amy poe atp like i am

and who do you think should go first rn

my only other option is to tinfoil you/tutuu

i think it's prob amy/hally yeah

would prob go for either at this point honestly but still lean amy being more lock wolf i think?

but that last hally post hard pushing a plan with the redirect is... smelly

i still dont see why we need to yeet lc as he can potentially win with town

but if we're not 100% sure on amy ig whatever

iaafr wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:57 pm man should i be tinfoiling tutuu

maybe lol

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:50 pm IF it’s 4/2/1

then it’s mylo and if we mislim we lose

the only correct play here in that case is [VOTE: long con] aubergine

we know this is not a mislim. he’s either 3P or mafia

and yeeting him gives us another night phase where we can hopefully get more info to find out who the mafia are

tutuu can get off another peek and i can get off another redirect. we also will narrow things by having mafia kill someone

so yeeting lc is effectively like sleeping if he’s 3P and is 100% mechanically correct

i’m not voting anyone else today

uh

you just said amy has to be mafia

why would you risk going to 3v2 when you could just get a mafia today lol

yeah i'm there

hally is absolutely grasping rn and the mutual defense between them & amy is like their last hope, 3p tinfoiling is desperation showing etc

im with you rn tutuu

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:23 pm what if lc is telling the truth about his role thing but he’s actually mafia not 3P

but then if radishes was also mafia my redirect wouldn’t have worked

and lc claimed he lost his vest before i ever claimed my redirect so that can’t be fake

so like either radishes was town vig and we have three of them in the game assuming nut and nanook are also both town or lc is 3P and radishes was mafia

can there be more than one 3P

like i kinda think nut or nanook makes sense as 3P because they both have kp so maybe they aren’t both town? but they aren’t mafia either? which is why they came back not mafia to tutuu/amy

but i think like one of them would be 3P and the other town in that world

is that possible. like two 3P and three mafia

lc is 3p and either radish was mafia or tutuu's solve is correct and there are two mafia

i do not think there are two 3ps

nanook and I are both town

you're kinda looking worse to me with every post

i think i like tutuu's solve for now

but who knows i change my mind every post bc zomg everyone is towny

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:14 pm iaafr still hasn’t claimed

how do we know he’s not the roleblocker and he didn’t just block me the night i redirected him

also random thought but tutuu still has tim’s security system that outs whoever would try to kill her right? so like... maf might not risk that idk

i completely forgot about that

mafia wouldn't have

iaafr wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:06 pm like why from town perspective should i care about helping you achieve wincon

unless you actually case the scum for us

go find the scum lc

this

ok i really need to step away from this and make dinner and maybe stuff will make sense when i will return (narrator: it won't)

Amy wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:57 pm fuck, like...

hally legit thought they had a redcheck on me

where are the wolves

lol god damn "where are the wolves" this shit does really feel like jack attack fuck meeeeeeee

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:58 pm
Amy wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:54 pm there is actually a nonzero chance hally redirected tutuu to a truthful long con but

why would they do that even as a wolf redirector

i don't see the logic

@Long Con are you investigative immune in any way
80% chance of immunity to night actions.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:56 pm Wait so N1

LC says he was targeted, Hally says she redirected

But last night hally’s redirect doesn’t work

What I’m wondering is why it works N1 but not last night...

Unless radishes didn’t actually have KP??

Idfk what’s happening rn
It could have happened. One obvious way is that it's the 20% on N1. I do know another way as well; the actual way.

/what/

tsp how dare you do this to me right after the misery that was jack attack

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:43 pm Night actions against me have an 80% chance of failing. I was thinking of it as just kills. I just looked again. I think I am the blocker.

oH this makes sense actually lmaooooo

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:45 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:43 pm Night actions against me have an 80% chance of failing. I was thinking of it as just kills. I just looked again. I think I am the blocker.
so hally is mafia?

LC if ur 3p (and u were town before u became 3p), from ur pov, hally is mafia, right?

amy, u are correct that from your pov, hally manufactured a red check on u

sorry for jumping on ur throat immediately at day start. i got overexicted

i calmed down now. apologies!

14/30

ok... I need to slow down and think about this

once again thinking is above my paygrade smh

but yeah i think w!hally makes sense now

lol also why cant it be nanook fuck

holy fuck if what I think is true than TSP really stayed true to the flavor by absolutely messing with everyone's minds

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

I....... think I maybe understand what LC's deal is actually

and I think it means we always yeet amy today and that could end the game.

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:35 pm slow the FUCK down

hally can mechanically be mafia from my pov and thats rly fucking with me so bad

yeah.....

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:34 pm I win the game if I contribute to the yeeting of two scum.

wait this actually checks out tho lmao

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:34 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:31 pm @Long Con full claim please

alignment, role, everything
I am neutral, survivor. I win the game if I contribute to the yeeting of two scum. I already have KZA.

I started with a vest. I have more but it's mostly in Decisions, Decisions territory, and I don't want to be modkilled.

how do you reconcile this with Rule #6

iaafr wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:32 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:29 pm Wtf is happening

Can someone lay this out clearly plz, I’m dealing with a considerable headache
hally is claiming to have redirected amy to lc

tutuu is claiming that amy's action worked on tutuu

tutuu is also claiming her peek failed, suggesting rb

hally has previously claimed her role will not work if she tries to redirect mafia to mafia

tutuu took this as mech confirmation that amy and lc are both scum

alternative theories that could work is amy is scum with an ascetic modifier (so that the redir and peek couldnt have worked regardless)

or ofc hally/tutuu are lying

so I think it's always just correct to vote amy here yeah?

yeah no I don't believe this 3p claim lol I think amy and lc are just mafia

if radish was really a town vig and tried to shoot LC i owe him like a year's worth of apologies holy shit he must have been screaming insanely from dvc

....ok so LC is claiming 3p and that hally's redirect doesn't work from mafia to 3p?

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