The Syndicate

Ash Lael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:14 pm Also big shoutout to Michelle and her god reads. Caught all three of us at various points.

Yup yup yup

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:09 pm Poison played a great meta shattering game, Ash played a comically hard bus on someone who didn't even flip. Doesn't ever really look teamed. This was a hard game.

I mean I'm not taking another "disrespect read" from anybody. Tbh, It was really humiliating to survive in F3 in the champs only because of my meta and losing town the game at the end. Sigh. Had to change the play at some point.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:59 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:54 pm
This is the quality I play mafia for

"Poison can do nothing wrong in my eyes"

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:58 pm it’s like a “im wolfing you please don’t be mad at me” post

Bwahahah

Ash Lael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:55 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:54 pm yall were sooooo close on ash today though it was frustrating to watch (oh yeah btw i was spoiled)

but yeah i don't think you'd get there on poison in f3. great wolf play
I argued so much with poison about the Wilgy kill. I felt like I’d just be outed.

But we took the shot to just win and dealt with the aftermath lol.

Yess

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:54 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:52 pm poison gets no more disrespect reads

YESSSSSS

I need to wash my face and get up first. Will be back in 5 mins actually

I'm reading but I don't see epi's reason to town read hally

Wait am I lateee

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:39 am also how was vul an obvious save over you or nook

Because vul was locked town for everyone, me and nook were not, also vul had better play and theories than us and vul would not get miselimed...

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:57 am i want to point out that i was one of dunya’s only/strongest scum reads and dunya strongly favors protecting teammates so that would never happen D1 if we were w/w

just in case you wanna like, actually evaluate whether an epi/me team makes sense

Nope. D1 you were super towny, dunya calling you scum is nothing but Could be distancing. That does not make me rule out epi/Hally.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:58 pm Epi

Why are you so confident that Hally is town

Exactly

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:36 pm this is actually really good because I'm pretty confident in ruling out Hally/Ash at this point

so if I combine that post with my actual reads it's probably just Hally/Epi (which is also consistent with how Epi is playing today IMO)

I agree tbh, I don't understand how he is against scum!Hally.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:34 pm Arete attempts to do VCA (and probably comes to a bunch of wrong conclusions)

okay

(this is all ignoring my actual reads)

on a level-1 level Poison + Ash being on the wolf on D1 is a better look for them, Hally being on the CW is a worse look, and Epi being way off wagon is a slightly worse look for them

that said it's LyLo so I don't want to be like 'wolves never vote wolves, Ash and Poison are locktown'

on a slightly higher level I think the context of the EoD points to Ash and Hally not being aligned? like, Ash was spending basically all of D1 dunking on TSP, while Hally was spending EoD1 being like 'CFD the two poster,' and I think that's kind of bizarre if they're partners

that's not VCA per se but I think it's true

semi-points to Poison/Hally not being a thing since one would be bussing while the other would be trying to CFD the 2-poster, but I don't think that's nearly as strong of a case as the case against Ash/Hally since that could just be individual preferences for deepwolfing vs. powerwolfing

D2 is V/V wagons, I don't think scum would have had a strong preference for LC vs. Michelle (maybe there's something I'm missing, I don't actually remember their reads). normally I'd say people off-wagon in V/V wagons are sus but we didn't have anyone off wagon, so. I do think it's weak evidence against an Ash/Poison team since I find it hard to believe that literally all three wolves would stack on Michelle over LC with V/V Michelle and LC.

EoD3 is another interesting one because Hally was one of the two main wagons (and now I feel kind of dumb because I'm pretty sure I was the vote that saved Hally? don't remember for certain). I think this is more evidence against Ash/Hally, Ash's vote legitimately put Hally in danger and I would be surprised if Ash bussed both his teammates back to back for no reason, when he was already (on D3) widely townread post-Tony flip. Epi and Poison are both voting the CW to Hally, I think given how close the vote was that raises the equity of them being teamed with Hally. it might slightly lower the equity of an Epi/Poison team? I don't really see why they both stack on LC there if they're wolves, and separately I think wolves would have seen Hally as a more valuable kill than LC.

EoD4 is V/V wagons again (we should have just killed Epi like I wanted to), again the only off-wagon person is a dead villager. This is maybe slight points against a Hally/Epi team? but their other votes have enough partner equity that I'm not ruling it out. Ash and Poison are voting together again, it's honestly kind of funny at this point? if they're wolves they decided to just always vote together to mess with people, and I don't think I actually believe that.

so to sum up (this is ignoring my actual reads on people)

all theoretical teams

Ash/Hally
Ash/Epi
Ash/Poison

Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison

Epi/Poison

teams I think actually make sense from VCA

Ash/Epi

Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison (some things make it unlikely but can't totally rule it out)

Epi/Poison

I like this post tbh. I might add some points to it later.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:15 pm [VOTE: Ash] aubergine

There's always tomorrow.

I think Poison is trying to solve G-Man and not the current situation and I think that's a mistake.

I'm not trying to solve G man, but if we just think about the very basic setups and balancing, for any game, you cannot deny that two docs [self healing] is unbalanced. Besides, if she was indeed the doc how is she not mod killed or even got a warning? She did more than slight soft hinting, don't you think?

Secondly, if she is the doc, why didn't she protect Vulgard?? That was a pretty obvious saving don't you think?

Thirdly, her doc role does not make any sense as town role, if scum!doc it makes somewhat sense but not solid one sure. My guess is she is no doc but she have immunity. Now would town have immunity in this set up? Don't think so, would mafia have one, very likely, given LC role.

She started the doc thing only when she knew she was Infected. I don't believe in this town!doc story of hers.

And I am amazed how you are buying it.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:13 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:11 pm @Poison
@Hally

Can we lynch one of these two please?
i would like to but im pretty sure we aren’t convincing poison

I would be convinced only if you have convincing points for your conclusions.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:10 pm Ash and Arete are mafia. That's my final answer.

Why are you so against scum!Hally?

I will be back after studying for a bit.

[VOTE: Hally] aubergine

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:47 pm Hally I agree that your actions make sense from the PoV of a town doc I just don't think it makes sense for the game to have another town doc with the roles we already have

Exactly, two docs is never balanced. Specially with only 3 PRs

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:44 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:42 pm Olay I think, Hally started this two doc thingy from last day? And she made it seem like she would protect nook with all that voting, but instead saved herself even after knowing that she would get scum read, and people told them that they wouldn't lock town read her. But I think it's all a bluff she might just have an immunity and tried to make it seem like she wants to save nook.
well i didn’t know nook would be the other one infected, but i knew i was soooooo

you can figure it out

Nah, you knew that all along you would not have brought the thing at all. And you know what's more interesting than that? You not getting mod killed or warned after all this. You must be lying about your claim.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:41 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:39 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:36 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:34 pm Was there any role card provided after tutuu death?
You know what would be the most helpful thing right now? If you voted.
Aren't you being a little too excited?
I'm not excited at all. I'm drinking bourbon and recording music.

What I mean by that is that it would give me a clear picture of who your biggest suspect is if you just voted.

I'm sorry if I sounded impatient with you.

Tbh I see Hally in most worlds. I might end up voting for her. I think ash is town cause scum would not be stupid if they survived this long in a game they won't be throwing it now with such obvious thing.

Now I don't see you and Arete scum together, but there's one among you.

Olay I think, Hally started this two doc thingy from last day? And she made it seem like she would protect nook with all that voting, but instead saved herself even after knowing that she would get scum read, and people told them that they wouldn't lock town read her. But I think it's all a bluff she might just have an immunity and tried to make it seem like she wants to save nook.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:36 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:34 pm Was there any role card provided after tutuu death?
You know what would be the most helpful thing right now? If you voted.

Aren't you being a little too excited?

I don't see a Epi / arete w/w world. But I think both Epi / Hally and Arete / Hally makes sense. Also I have a bad feeling Ash is getting framed here and wilgy death might have happened for that very reason. Either lynch ash and win or lynch someone to frame wilgy death and win. That makes more sense than ash being scum. Cause if they were scum I don't think they would do something so obvious as this.

Was there any role card provided after tutuu death?

I think killing wilgy over ash can have three possibilities idk if they overlap or not:

1. Someone wants to frame someone else for killing wilgy.
2. Killing Wilgy can mean a confirm lynch on ash.
3. Ash is scum.

If ash is not scum, the first 2 may possibilities overlap.

Idk tbh, you can be a mafia pr as well, but I don't buy two docs, specifically, self healing doc. Nah.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:16 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:15 pm I can also see a world with Hally being 3p.idk.
jesus christ lol

Wait why is it unbelievable exactly? In each and every game of this series, there was a 3p, I just checked. There was SK, indie and another one

I can also see a world with Hally being 3p.idk.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:11 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:05 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:01 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:53 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:50 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:41 pm vaguely tempted to just not look at Ash pairings because he almost always dies tonight if he's a villager and I'm slightly lazy (not going to explain why Ash specifically in case wolves somehow haven't noticed)
ok so to clarify this: I figured that scum would want to not kill someone who might die to the virus (especially if Hally was town)

I checked and the only two living people who fit that criterion are Ash and Wilgy

them killing Wilgy here is lowkey making me paranoid about Ash, but
Yeah, I figured that as well. I'm a bit surprised to be here.

It's seems like Hally really does have some sort of doctor ability though so maybe she's town and it was a doc dodge?
I feel like

ok so I haven't played on this site before so I don't know what people here consider balanced

but 15p Mountainous is considered balanced or slightly scumsided on most competitive-ish sites, JoaT^2 is considered slightly townsided on most sites

town having 2 docs + a poisoner in a 15p with 3 Mafia is more townsided than JoaT^2, I'm pretty sure, so I feel like that wouldn't be balanced and it's really unlikely that a hypothetical town doc would exist in this set-up

the two worlds I can think of where it might count as balanced are:

- if the poisoner is being treated as a negative utility role for balance purposes. I think this is unlikely because ... it literally autopoisons the wolf who killed them if it dies ...
- if there's a 3p (apparently this site likes those) + 2 Mafia alive right now. This is probably actually possible but I'm choosing to ignore this world because I don't think town can win in it, and game theory says that if it's impossible for you to win if X is true you should play as if X is never true

basically what I'm saying is that I think it's highly unlikely that there is a town doc alive
Mmm. A scum doc is a really weird thing to imagine, but I see what you're saying. It's what Nook was saying too.
I think it kind of makes sense for there to be a scum doc with LC's role, like, I feel like 'autokill the wolf who killed you with almost no counterplay if you die at night' is kinda OP

...honestly the thing that doesn't make sense about a scum doc is why they wouldn't have healed Tony N1

but I don't really think two town docs and a town poisoner makes sense from a set-up balance perspective

You know I thought this too, I think the only conclusion I came to was that maybe scum didn't know about LC role or who got poisoned?

So I looked back, and there were mafia PRs in this game series before. Hmmm...

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:01 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:53 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:50 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:41 pm vaguely tempted to just not look at Ash pairings because he almost always dies tonight if he's a villager and I'm slightly lazy (not going to explain why Ash specifically in case wolves somehow haven't noticed)
ok so to clarify this: I figured that scum would want to not kill someone who might die to the virus (especially if Hally was town)

I checked and the only two living people who fit that criterion are Ash and Wilgy

them killing Wilgy here is lowkey making me paranoid about Ash, but
Yeah, I figured that as well. I'm a bit surprised to be here.

It's seems like Hally really does have some sort of doctor ability though so maybe she's town and it was a doc dodge?
I feel like

ok so I haven't played on this site before so I don't know what people here consider balanced

but 15p Mountainous is considered balanced or slightly scumsided on most competitive-ish sites, JoaT^2 is considered slightly townsided on most sites

town having 2 docs + a poisoner in a 15p with 3 Mafia is more townsided than JoaT^2, I'm pretty sure, so I feel like that wouldn't be balanced and it's really unlikely that a hypothetical town doc would exist in this set-up

the two worlds I can think of where it might count as balanced are:

- if the poisoner is being treated as a negative utility role for balance purposes. I think this is unlikely because ... it literally autopoisons the wolf who killed them if it dies ...
- if there's a 3p (apparently this site likes those) + 2 Mafia alive right now. This is probably actually possible but I'm choosing to ignore this world because I don't think town can win in it, and game theory says that if it's impossible for you to win if X is true you should play as if X is never true

basically what I'm saying is that I think it's highly unlikely that there is a town doc alive

I doubt about town doc as well. Besides self healing town doc, isn't that weird?

Just a sec

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:57 pm “hally has some explaining to do”

but i literally cannot explain. i am forbidden

I know but tbh, I thought you were just bluffing about it. 2 docs in a game would be miserable if only 3 PRs are there. You must have an immunity. And in a 3 PR game I would not expect someone with immunity.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:50 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:41 pm vaguely tempted to just not look at Ash pairings because he almost always dies tonight if he's a villager and I'm slightly lazy (not going to explain why Ash specifically in case wolves somehow haven't noticed)
ok so to clarify this: I figured that scum would want to not kill someone who might die to the virus (especially if Hally was town)

I checked and the only two living people who fit that criterion are Ash and Wilgy

them killing Wilgy here is lowkey making me paranoid about Ash, but

Tbh, I think killing wilgy over ash might have been a smart move but I csnt be too sure here

Hmm... So Hally did survive and she was not bluffing about it.

Just when I was sure my reads were getting better.!!

I'm just a shit player.

I hope it was not bussing from arete

You know suddenly what popped in my head "is nook really town?"

Oh you said not 100%

Arete wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:48 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:47 pm Hey Arete my fellow.

I'm not getting lynched today. Where is your vote going? You have a few minutes left to decide.
if I had to vote one of the top wagons now I would vote 112 because I like the wagon composition better

I don't really believe in either of them being a hit but, like, I'm not 100 percent confident in them being V/V or anything

So uh who do you think the last two scums are?

Look at the wagons

112 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:11 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:35 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:31 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:24 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:19 pm It's the main reason that, despite my own thoughts, I am not voting 112.
why would you trust my read over your own?
A) I'm not reading (much),

2) I think you know 112 better than I do, and

d) I think mafia is comfortable with a 112 lynch. Therefore I am not. I want shit shaken up.

(Whoever gets the holiday film reference gets a prize)
i don’t know 112 at all. this is our first game together
Interesting.

Btw, I have played with scum!112 in a turbo before, but turbos don't count so I won't include that meta.
I don't think I've ever been scum in a turbo and only recall playing in one. You might be thinking of .113

It was a pretty recent game. I'll check it out later.

Honestly back to bed

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:31 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:24 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:19 pm It's the main reason that, despite my own thoughts, I am not voting 112.
why would you trust my read over your own?
A) I'm not reading (much),

2) I think you know 112 better than I do, and

d) I think mafia is comfortable with a 112 lynch. Therefore I am not. I want shit shaken up.

(Whoever gets the holiday film reference gets a prize)
i don’t know 112 at all. this is our first game together

Interesting.

Btw, I have played with scum!112 in a turbo before, but turbos don't count so I won't include that meta.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:30 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:28 pm Epi, why are you not voting wilgy if not 112? Your vote on arete doesn't sound like much to vote for them near EoD specially when you are scum reading them based on wilgy.
It sounds like you don't like my vote for Arete. Tell me more.

Ofc I don't like it.

And, about more of my thoughts, I think you choosing arete over wilgy with the theory you gave for voting arete is not matching properly.

I'll be back later actually

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