The Syndicate

Gg

Fwiw SPF I basically never ever would’ve gotten to you before f3, and I’m super impressed at being able to fake the mindmeld stuff you did as mafia. I like to think I would’ve stayed the course and killed you in a normal f3, but it definitely would’ve been agonizing.

Everyone should follow the alphabetical plan tomorrow. It’s optimal to leave the decision to confirmed town.

Especially given that somehow at least one of nutella/thun is town kek

I’m having flashbacks to space invaders

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:09 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:03 pm nor do I believe I should have to beyond “I killed scum what’s wrong with you lol,”
ok philosophers tho

like thats not convincing to me sorry dude (^:

Ok well I guess I’m not gonna bother trying to find scum anymore then

Maybe I should just scumread you then cause FTL, is that how we’re doing this?

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:07 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:51 pm You literally did the exact same thing (“vote SPF to avoid nonsense”) that you’re questioning me about in the same post
no you specifically left it between me and spf which we fucking talked about dude

if I get nked f3 is harder than it needs to be

A) idc if you or SPF goes

B) I don’t actually think that’s true, you over SPF in f3 isn’t objectively better

Anyways, I’m not interested in defending myself nor do I believe I should have to beyond “I killed scum what’s wrong with you lol,” so I’m not going to. If you insist on killing me anyways it’s entirely on you

Reasonably sure last mafia is not SPF, would have said not nutella before now but idk I can’t sort “townNutella with terrible ideas” from “scumNutella seeing an easy win” so meh

Which I guess I’ll have to tomorrow but it’s not happening in the next two hours so

Town literally out here gamethrowing smh

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:29 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:25 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:08 am Not sure if I’ll be back for EOD or not, putting a vote on thunal

And one on tutu, to make sure mafia have to put her in grasslands if they want her there.
Also like. The fuck is this. Are you still hoping for a chance of spf going so you can nk me? Why this weird comment about tutuu

[VOTE: spf] aubergine just to avoid nonsense
I just realized that Nook might have put a vote on tutuu incase we switched to a tutuu wagon. If he really voted tutuu with the reasoning that he didn't want her in grasslands, he would have voted SPF too.

...what? How does that make sense? Idc if SPF goes to grasslands

You literally did the exact same thing (“vote SPF to avoid nonsense”) that you’re questioning me about in the same post

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:25 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:08 am Not sure if I’ll be back for EOD or not, putting a vote on thunal

And one on tutu, to make sure mafia have to put her in grasslands if they want her there.
Also like. The fuck is this. Are you still hoping for a chance of spf going so you can nk me? Why this weird comment about tutuu

[VOTE: spf] aubergine just to avoid nonsense

What the fuck are you talking about

Not sure if I’ll be back for EOD or not, putting a vote on thunal

And one on tutu, to make sure mafia have to put her in grasslands if they want her there.

I only have like five posts you’d think people trying to sort me would read them!

I’ve mentioned it a lot at this point tbh

LC was not a foregone conclusion when I voted him

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:59 pm @anyone who townreads nanook -

can you give me your best and most confident reason for tring him?

I cheated and read his role pm.

I mean idk tbh I thought she was town for a large chunk of the game so

Maybe I’m not the best judge lol

But yeah I get the impression that “flat” tone or whatever is just kinda her rather than being AI

But at the same time I think she’s the best kill soooooo...whatever gets you there I guess kek

Fwiw I think that tone stuff might just be Thun, idk if I'd really bank on that tbh

Alison had a solid grasp of the game and thought thun was mafia. Her read on me has fluctuated seemingly to fit thread feeling at the time (this is a weak one). If it's not her I have to potentially consider spf/nutella and I don't want to.

I wouldn’t eat your meat anyway

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:12 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:08 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:06 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:20 am Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:04 pm Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.
Nanook, what changed between these two posts?
As discussed extensively with SPF, stuff happened in the thread

Also you’re mafia so
Why do you think I'm mafia?

You got a role PM that says you are, idk

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:06 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:20 am Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:04 pm Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.
Nanook, what changed between these two posts?

As discussed extensively with SPF, stuff happened in the thread

Also you’re mafia so

K I’m alison now

Thunal is mafia kill us in either order, if she flips town you can kill me, etc. etc.

The jay kill is the one that clears me not the alison one

So if it’s nanook/nutella/tutu, I submit nutella, Nutella submits tutu, tutu submits nanook. Treehouse gives gun accordingly.

Optimal approach for f3 is probably everyone submits the name below them alphabetically (bottom name submits top name) and treehouse give gun to person they want to.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:50 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:42 pm But I think an f3 with nanook/nutella/scumTutu is a loss more often than an f3 with nanook/nutella/scumThun,
why?

also, I saw that in the treehouse you suggested sending spf instead of me next time, but now you're assuming I'll be kept for f3. did you just realize not sending me again would be real dumb or

I don’t think it would be real dumb, I just changed my mind

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:39 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:35 pm Meh

POE for me now is thunal/tutu, idk which is better. I don’t really care about order if I’m being accepted as clear, if I’m not then I guess order matters.

Not super thrilled about martin being flipped but whatever

Ego wants it to be tutu so I can have bragging rights, don’t feel super confident either way. If it’s spf or nutes I’m just losing to them and that’s fine atp.
if you weren't accepted as a clear, who would you want to go out first between those two names?

Idk. Probably tutu? It’s purely about positioning yeah, idk which of them is “scummier” or whatever, they’ve both done things that made me think “oh that’s probably town.” But I think an f3 with nanook/nutella/scumTutu is a loss more often than an f3 with nanook/nutella/scumThun, so it’s probably slightly optimal to do tutu first.

Would be better if I’m just accepted as clear tho kek

I mean I was TRing Martin so I don’t think you can credibly accuse me of outsider bias

Unless you think there’s a reason that spf/nutes should be back in consideration you’re in a POE, that’s how it goes sometimes

Meh

POE for me now is thunal/tutu, idk which is better. I don’t really care about order if I’m being accepted as clear, if I’m not then I guess order matters.

Not super thrilled about martin being flipped but whatever

Ego wants it to be tutu so I can have bragging rights, don’t feel super confident either way. If it’s spf or nutes I’m just losing to them and that’s fine atp.

Wtf happened to that link. Let’s try again

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:03 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:57 pm hope i’m not wrong about this because i’ll look like even more of an idiot than i already do buuuut im really confident it’s just martin
TO BE FAIR,

I do have Asperger's Syndrome. Which may be making things difficult regardless of each other's efforts (or I guess lack of my effort rn lol).

So mischopping here isn't really your fault, especially since nobody here knows me & that I'm new-ish to FM.

As much as I emotionally resent the idea of being mischopped under the current context, for various reasons, the last thing I want to do is to make you feel bad for it.

(unless you're part of the 0.0001% chance that you're mafia, then yeah I guess I do hate your guts a bit)

[ytubehd]jv7jcciKB_s[/ytubehd]

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:02 pm general question: do you guys want me to do an interaction analysis for hally/nutella/thunal? i'm at a point where i've skimmed the interactions between them enough to know that my conclusion is going to be: "this looks good for them", but i do want to be thorough. i guess i'm in a place where i'm not sure if using hours of my time to write that analysis is a good idea if it's going to lead us to the same foregone conclusion today. martin is probably just mafia.

Thunal tomorrow maybe, if game is still going. Don’t think anyone else is going over today so probably not needed.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:39 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:31 pm If you’re 100% confident in your towncore it’s fine to not care about yourself being in the Poe or dying
People have a tendency to correct others when they believe another person has a wrong answer or idea.

I kinda forgot the name of the G-something effect or whatever its called.

I don't really have the time to speculate and introspect as to when and where I try to correct people.

I’m not seeing how this is particularly connected to what I was saying but ok ig

If I had the confidence in thun that Martin is expressing I would likely also be saying “just kill the three of us idc about order.” If you’re 100% confident in your towncore it’s fine to not care about yourself being in the Poe or dying

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:12 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:09 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:08 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:07 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:04 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:02 pm How could the time not matter

In what way is a read changing over 36 hours surprising
the time is not relevant because the issue is that the read changed between a couple of your posts with no visible progression

the read is not the problem, the difficulty in seeing how you got from point A to point B is
Yes! Two posts made 36 hours apart! The time is incredibly relevant, and ignoring it is both stupid and incredibly nitpicky!
my gripe with you is that you changed your read on sloonei in a very significant way with no visible progression, explanation, or thought process for how you changed the read

you saying: "time passed inbetween me townreading sloonei and scumreading sloonei" is not an explanation for how your read developed. i don't understand how you're missing the point
Yes it is! Time passed, stuff happened, I updated my read
if you came back 24 hours from now and outed a hard scumread on hally, then i would not see "time has passed" as an acceptable explanation for how your read on hally changed. the same principle applies to your read on sloonei. i am trying to understand the specific reasons why your read on sloonei changed, and not just a specific factor that contributed to the change

I caught up, stuff happened. Jay was in thread. That’s literally all I have to say about it.

I also don’t think I was SRing sloonei in the post you’re referencing?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:08 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:07 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:04 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:02 pm How could the time not matter

In what way is a read changing over 36 hours surprising
the time is not relevant because the issue is that the read changed between a couple of your posts with no visible progression

the read is not the problem, the difficulty in seeing how you got from point A to point B is
Yes! Two posts made 36 hours apart! The time is incredibly relevant, and ignoring it is both stupid and incredibly nitpicky!
my gripe with you is that you changed your read on sloonei in a very significant way with no visible progression, explanation, or thought process for how you changed the read

you saying: "time passed inbetween me townreading sloonei and scumreading sloonei" is not an explanation for how your read developed. i don't understand how you're missing the point

Yes it is! Time passed, stuff happened, I updated my read

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:04 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:02 pm How could the time not matter

In what way is a read changing over 36 hours surprising
the time is not relevant because the issue is that the read changed between a couple of your posts with no visible progression

the read is not the problem, the difficulty in seeing how you got from point A to point B is

Yes! Two posts made 36 hours apart! The time is incredibly relevant, and ignoring it is both stupid and incredibly nitpicky!

How could the time not matter

In what way is a read changing over 36 hours surprising

I ignored the last part of your question because I’ve already answered it

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:40 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:32 pm also, i'm referring to a "couple of posts later" as in the posts in your ISO and not your posts in real-time. it's fine for your read to develop, but i didn't see a clear progression for how you townread sloonei in the beginning and then became more reluctant toward him early on. why did you initially want him to have the gun?
My early progression is kinda hard to read // isn't exactly documented because I was over-thinking things behind the scenes.

I also said before that from where I come from scum usually isn't caught on the first day.

I was also having some slight troubles understanding the issue over Sloonei in very early D1, and so I just thought it was some awkward miscommunication or misunderstanding that I couldn't reliably get AI stuff from.

I.....what? I don't recall ever thinking that I wanted to give Sloonei the gun.

It was directed at me

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:32 pm also, i'm referring to a "couple of posts later" as in the posts in your ISO and not your posts in real-time. it's fine for your read to develop, but i didn't see a clear progression for how you townread sloonei in the beginning and then became more reluctant toward him early on. why did you initially want him to have the gun?

“A couple posts later” implies that not much time had passed, when in fact, over 36 hours had gone by.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:09 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:57 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:56 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:26 pm @everyone - here's a question that might not make sense but that i consider important to the gamestate right now:

how confident do you feel about your reads right now? how much faith do you have that your assessment of the gamestate is correct?
88+ % in my reads. I’m only putting confident reads into the thread this game.
Nanook what is my alignment?
Currently thinking whatever the opposite of jay’s is. I’m not very good at reading you independently so

This is a weird thing to leave out of an interaction analysis!

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:53 pm how did nanook interact with sloonei?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675258#p675258 nanook softly defends sloonei here when some early pressure is on him

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675825#p675825 nanook suggests giving the gun to sloonei in this post - i'd be interested in hearing why nanook was townreading sloonei so much early on

it's interesting that nanook posits that one of jay/sloonei is town depending on their reads develop on each other on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676599#p676599 - but he suggested that sloonei should be given the gun just a couple of posts earlier. if nanook wanted sloonei to have the gun, then he surely thought that sloonei was town, right? that's why i don't understand why his level of confidence is so different in his list of reads

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677289#p677289 is kind of hedgy

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=678817#p678817 is alright, but i cant give nanook much town equity for it when it was in a position where sloonei was almost 100% being chopped no matter what

how did sloonei interact with nanook?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676607#p676607 is the first direct interaction that i could find between sloonei and nanook, and it was on page 3 of sloonei's iso. i don't know what to make of that

sloonei broadly throws out nanook's name as someone he doesn't have a read on and someone he wants to put in the POE on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676814#p676814

sloonei dodges the question a little bit when jagged asks him to talk about nanook on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677274#p677274

more hedginess toward nanook on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=678311#p678311

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=678778#p678778 represents a heel turn for sloonei's treatment of nanook - he goes from nullreading nanook and vaguely shading him to outright saying that nanook might be lc's partner

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=678823#p678823 is so awkward

conclusion: the story of a nanook and sloonei scum team would involve sloonei ignoring nanook for the vast majority of the game and then throwing a lot of shade toward him at the very end when he was being chopped. while this isn't something i can rule out as a possibility, it doesn't feel that likely to me? i don't know - when i look at these interactions, it shows me that nanook/sloonei do have scum equity, but it just doesn't feel like a good fit to me for whatever reason - i get the sense that sloonei would have made his interactions with his partners a bit more cleaner than what we see from his treatment of nanook

You say a couple posts later, I say

Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:20 am

to

Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:04 pm

Was my read not supposed to develop in that time frame for some reason?

My default is to townread sloonei early and if jay says “hey sloonei is scum” or “hey I’m not sure what sloonei is” and/or sloonei keeps killing town reevaluate then. I don’t read him particularly well but I know he’s a very strong town player so that’s my default approach.

You also left out where I said there was a difference check between jay/sloonei while jay was still alive, which is a very weird thing to say about someone you’re about to NK

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:49 pm martin = sheppard
nanook = jackofhearts
tutuu = sloonei (haha)

it's the same scenario as the finale. we have a safe poe of 3 but it's just martin and we get it today

I’m not super comfortable clearing thun tbh

But also I’m unchoppable hee ho

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:18 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:17 pm nooks entrance this day is towny because if he was scum he would probably fake being happy about sloonei’s flip or be all self-congratulatory but instead he’s like “i hate this because now i feel like im gonna blow the game in f3.” that’s a towny fear
I also don't think scum!nook would be bold enough at the start of D3 to say he's clear with such confidence.

I hunt for clears as both alignments tbh

I’m just clearing Hally/spf at this point, if one of them faked the mindmeld stuff then lolme. Would almost always look for deep scum in Martin/nutes/thun first

I’ve had a townread on him since D1?

I also think alison is generally pretty accurate when she makes confident reads that she hard pushes so I’m loathe to kill someone she super defended through most of the game

I don’t really believe martin is mafia so

I mean unless it’s just tutu I have a misclear somewhere

Cause my POE was alison/sloonei/tutu...alison being NKed points towards me potentially having a misclear somewhere

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:49 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:42 pm I’ve never been less happy about a scum death kek

Idk maybe it is just tutu but this game now has the feel of “game that nanook loses at f3.”

But my reads have been pretty good so far so idk maybe my reads are just good this game.
wait what? why would you think you'd lose in f3? that could only happen if it's like spf or something

and assuming you'll be in f3 is a weird look man

why don't you think it's martin? I think it's just martin

Why the fuck would I not be in an f3 ?? You think I’m more clear than anyone not named tutu ???

I’ve never been less happy about a scum death kek

Idk maybe it is just tutu but this game now has the feel of “game that nanook loses at f3.”

But my reads have been pretty good so far so idk maybe my reads are just good this game.

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