The Syndicate

wrote in practice twice lol whoops

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 8:04 pm I wonder how this game would have gone as a mountainous setup lol.

close to balanced by EV, but in practice mafiascum has run 8:4 nightless vanilla with an EV of 33% 8 times and town won 7 of them. in practice town tends to outperform EV on nightless setups b/c when someone is obvtown they just never get killed

i do think having the traitors minimally know each other's identities would be an improvement

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:25 pm I very nearly snap conceded as soon as I subbed in but I just subbed into a game with a near unachievable win condition where I outed nearly immediately (which I maintain was almost reasonable) and I didn’t want to get into a habit. I think I could have dragged this out a few more days but it’d be miserable and I just don’t want to put in the work for what is an inevitable loss

understandable tbh

you should be exiling kza to confirm him as town if that's the route we're going, don't get stupid and play whack a mole. we can lock the game down in 2 phases and not 8 or whatevr. if you decide yto keep ignoring me because "omg dont want to lose to exile", well, i hope you lose, haha

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 8:32 am @Gira you cool with dying next?

am town but would love to get out of this game

not voting but also not providing meaningful input to the game

yo

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:50 pm yeah i propose gira as last town everyone else die

appreciate th gesture but i shouldn't be, simply because i'm the one laying out the plan lol

KZA wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:39 pm okay who would've not conceded at this point:

maybe like Creature he's got good thread position

lol GG Creature caught you

as a rule i don't quit unless it's mech locked but also i'm telling you how to mech lock it lol

but i really can't be arsed to keep arguing optimal play here for days on end

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:46 pm I mean if we plow through 7 POE candidates and none of them are hits, we're going to have to flip our reads regardless of which strategy we use. I just want to use the one that will never send a possible traitor to exile more than twice, everyone but me being a possible traitor. Yes it's cautious, but it's not hard.

that is exactly why not going for exile confirmation is dangerous, because people will get dumb and second-guess, because we're going to be trying to play whack-a-mole looking for a hidden traitor rather than looking for a clear

look at it this way

right now we have 9 villagers and 1 traitor. the probability of picking a villager to bet the game on is NINETY PERCENT. the odds are never going to be better. only a single correct townread wins the game

and like i can only be arguing this from a protown perspectuve because i'm not advocating for myself to the exile so even were i a traitor i'd be guaranteed to lose with this

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:36 pm Meh. We're ahead, which means that we absolutely should play it safe, not make calls that have some amount of risk to them.

I know that the odds are in our favor, but there's still a little risk to picking someone (other than myself) to be our permanent exiled target.

marmot, the point is you pick the one person you don't want to eliminate ever, your top town read. what i consider risky, personally is flipping your reads wildly and killing someone you thought was locktown later in the game because you got tinfoily. we can get confirmation that we have made a correct choice and get it sooner rather than later, and that to me is LESS risky than constantly shuffling around reads

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:36 pm

Gira wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:13 pm anyway i will reiterate: pick one person and bet the game on them being town, now is literally the best time do so ever because the odds are good. exile them 3 times and get mechanical confirmation. don't cry about losing via traitor exile, you want this person to be the last one standing with marmot anyway so there is NO POINT in playing it safe

Who would you pick?

probably mac or creature? those two feel pretty good to me

people are saying KZA possibly townslipped though, could someone show me where? i've barely been paying attention lol

anyway i will reiterate: pick one person and bet the game on them being town, now is literally the best time do so ever because the odds are good. exile them 3 times and get mechanical confirmation. don't cry about losing via traitor exile, you want this person to be the last one standing with marmot anyway so there is NO POINT in playing it safe

MissSparkles wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:39 pm Via scummy play tbh

One usually doesn’t get there by mech solving, ask Wiml how he looks d blue in comparison

this is like always the last traitor

i believe you were town when you didn't understand the exile traitor win condition lol

yeah

we can turn this into legitimate full autowin still if we bet the game on mac town

odds've never been better

hey i had a plan thing

yes then it would actually be mafia

no, nvm, forgot what the math for nightless is, that's close to balanced but in practice town has always outperformed EV in nightless games

fairly sure 11v4 nightless is wildly townsided?

setup is obviously flawed but the traitors were uh not great

at we just pick 1 person besides marmot and turbo through the game lol

oh are we back

just turboing through the plan i guess?

reminder to marmot not to out green checks

and with that i will bid you good night

lol

the best part is: being wrong has absolutely no bearing on my alignment

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:53 pm

Gira wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:40 pm i get it as a policy vote but feels lazy given where we are

Same but Marmot's vote should probably be final here.

true

i get it as a policy vote but feels lazy given where we are

oh ok

Wisdom wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 3:05 pm Auwt wolf- any takers?

meh

could be but wouldn't be surprised at him being town either, mostly just inactive rather than actively scummy

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:30 pm [VOTE: miss sparkles] aubergine

yes

headed to sleep probably won't be up for the deadline

not super thrilled with the split right now

do you think poison is a bet the game level townread, creature?

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:10 pm Dafuq urgency is for?

the exile is a fairly important decision and half the game is not voting and discussion seems to be at a standstill

the lack of urgency here is kind of troubling

poison was plausibly a prime check given the focus on her yesterday, so, yes, i wouldn't make her the bet the game read. felt some of her posts were actually towny but i dont think it's a top 3 choice for me

i think we should probably do wiml because i am willing to bet the game on that read at this point

(or you can exile me, just saying)

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:20 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:13 pm Marmot: I don't think I'm going to share my reads for now
Mac: That's a bad strategy

Also Marmot: I redpeeked falcon Night 1
Also Mac: Marmot showed his hand, so of course Poison was the next logical anti-cop check.

Thats about 10% of what I meant yes.

I .eant your strategy should be to rng your checks so you shouldn't be afraid to share your reads.

that's probably a better strategy than what i came up with

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 12:35 pm The odds of Marmot and the anticop targeting the same player must be pretty low.

they're not as good as i'd thought yesterday. assuming the anti-daycop is allowed to selftarget and always does so on day 1 (because we're assuming worst case scenario here) it's something like 1/12 (chances of targeting the anti-daycop) + 2/12*2/11 (chances of investigating a traitor who is painted by the anti-daycop on day 2). the exile actually increases the probability of a same target but i'm too lazy to do all that math so the quick and dirty estimate is 11.1%, actual chances probably slightly higher, not likely but not something i'd bet the game on necessarily

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 12:03 pm I do have a green check, although I'm honestly leaning towards not exiling the same person over and over again, just in case it's wrong. Because as you say, even a green check at this point could be wrong.

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 12:04 pm Poison is a green check. I feel fairly confident about it being right, but not 100%.

for the record, in the future unless someone is being voted, don't out your green checks anymore

i understand the sntiment about not exiling someone over and over, but that's playing not to lose, rather than playing to win. look at it this way: if we exxile someone three times in a row and do NOT lose the game, they are mechanically confirmed town. that is incredibly powerful. right now, there are 3 traitors and 9 townies excluding you. a good townread is likely to be correct. ultimately, when a nightless game comes down to endgame, you need to bet the game on one person being town for sure. what exiling 3x right now does is test your most confident townread right here and now, rather than waiting until we got down in numbers after several days to see if it's right

at this point we pick one person other than marmot who we're willing to bet the game on being town and exile them 3 times in a row

ideally that'd be a green check from marmot but we'll see. i think the probability of a day 2 greencheck being full clear are less favorable than they were on day 1

Wisdom wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:55 am

Wiml wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:35 am I think KZA/Gira/Wisdom/Mac/maybe Creature (?) + obviously Marmot are town.

Gira is in my blind spot but I agree with the rest!

(Hi Gira, nice to see you again!)

hi wisdom, haven't been around at the same time as you but it's the weekend now so i have all day to post

Wiml wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:35 am I think KZA/Gira/Wisdom/Mac/maybe Creature (?) + obviously Marmot are town.

that's more names than we need to win the game so feelin' pretty good right now

well i'm gonna hang back and let this thing go on cruise control

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:51 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:50 pm So glad we didn't prematurely hammer KZA lol

I had submitted a target, I just needed good excuse for ya'll to talk about stuff and not hammer prematurely.

I doubt it'll all happen exactly like that in future days though.

hmm cool

actually thought opoisn was a little bit better in recent posts, were some actual opinions in there

also debatably there's value in having less reads out in the open so the anticop has less of an idea where to paint although that is again quite boring

KZA wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:13 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:12 pm

KZA wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:08 pm

Gira wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:04 pm i don't see the point of withholding the red check, because you're not gonna get spew

I guess to encourage everyone to keep looking for stuff for most of the day

I don't see why town would stop looking for stuff, but ce la vie

sometimes people get lazy when there's outed Mafia in front of them

I know I would

i mean i get the conventional wisdom just don't think it applies here

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:08 pm

Gira wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:06 pm the posting of sparkles has become increasingly offputting

How so?

whenever she speaks to someone it's like she's putting her hand on their leg. her sidling up to you in your argument with mac is gross, got the same buddying vibes earlier in the game, don't like the way she's attacking kza

the posting of sparkles has become increasingly offputting

i don't see the point of withholding the red check, because you're not gonna get spew