Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

[Tangrowth]

G-Man, can you tell us how you're thinking of everyone right now?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

that's a very surprising position for DDL, MP. what makes him your top town read at this point?

I think he's the real deal. Of course, since I know no one's alignment with certainty, my lists are subject to change, but it's really just that I'm starting to question the green reads more, and I can't ever see questioning the blue reads much at all at the moment. Trying to trust my gut at the moment and seeing where it gets me, since I feel like I just got lucky with Elo and my casing on splints was too narrow-minded.

i don't fault you for trying to give your gut more of a say in the Mafia decision making process. i've been trying to make the same adjustment in recent games. i just find DDL to be a surprising source of confidence for your gut, especially coming off of his aether vote during the BR lynch.

my brain and my gut have been locked in an eternal struggle over DDL for much of the game.

[G-Man]

G-Man, can you tell us how you're thinking of everyone right now?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Spoiler: show

Nope. I think the invisible hand thing is just a coincidence. Hosts usually don't give hints like that.

Don't see how. I just don't think the Invisible Hand thing is relevant at all, whatever it could possibly mean. My theory was built on how the Elo lynch came to be, not on write-ups made by hosts.

[Tangrowth]

that's a very surprising position for DDL, MP. what makes him your top town read at this point?

I think he's the real deal. Of course, since I know no one's alignment with certainty, my lists are subject to change, but it's really just that I'm starting to question the green reads more, and I can't ever see questioning the blue reads much at all at the moment. Trying to trust my gut at the moment and seeing where it gets me, since I feel like I just got lucky with Elo and my casing on splints was too narrow-minded.

i don't fault you for trying to give your gut more of a say in the Mafia decision making process. i've been trying to make the same adjustment in recent games. i just find DDL to be a surprising source of confidence for your gut, especially coming off of his aether vote during the BR lynch.

my brain and my gut have been locked in an eternal struggle over DDL for much of the game.

Same with the brain and gut struggle on DDL 100% for em.

I guess my most recent rainbow reads list I posted should have a disclaimer of MOSTLY gut-reads.

I'm having trouble analyzing the BR lynch now... I was assuming aether was town in my splints/BR fictional mafia team, but now taking a step back from MP tunnel vision, an aether/BR team makes for some WAY different dynamics.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

G-Man, what I mean is, it's one thing for the host to give away the name of the role who used the ability that is appearing in the write-up. He did that on N1 for the Epi kill.

But naming a role in the title of the write-up and posting a video about them is blatant role hinting, and good hosts don't do that.

[Tangrowth]

DDL, top 3 suspects (again)? :P

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i could dig a full reads list from DDL especially.

[Tangrowth]

I could dig a full reads list from EVERYONE EVERY FIVE MINUTES.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I'm gonna wait till tomorrow to answer that. I wanna read some isolated posts, but I'm sleepy.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Roxy is going to blow up this thread when she next pays it a visit.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

i could dig a full reads list from DDL especially.

tbh I don't do those often. I usually do it once in the beginning for the sake of estabilishing what I think of each player, but then as the game moves and things happen I focus on those instead.

I'll try to organize my thoughts tomorrow and see if I can get a view of the game right now, though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

MP, could you talk about the things that concern you about Turnip, your second most suspicious rainbowman? i am asking for a lot of perspectives on him because i think his team is likely to win the game (no matter which team it is) if he isn't sorted out very soon.

[G-Man]

G-Man, what I mean is, it's one thing for the host to give away the name of the role who used the ability that is appearing in the write-up. He did that on N1 for the Epi kill.

But naming a role in the title of the write-up and posting a video about them is blatant role hinting, and good hosts don't do that.

[G-Man]

i could dig a full reads list from DDL especially.

tbh I don't do those often. I usually do it once in the beginning for the sake of estabilishing what I think of each player, but then as the game moves and things happen I focus on those instead.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

No, it's the opposite. I think the hosts would have no problem saying that hole performed the kill, but won't reveal the role of the player who died in the night.

[G-Man]

No, it's the opposite. I think the hosts would have no problem saying that hole performed the kill, but won't reveal the role of the player who died in the night.

Spoiler: show

[Dragon D. Luffy]

For the third time: I said it was a COINCIDENCE.

I didn't build my theory on some video a host posted. I built it on info that came before, and has been coming since Night 1.

And now that I notice the write-up is called "Invisible Hands". I doubt hosts would give away roles like this, but it's a big coincidence lol.

[G-Man]

[Epignosis]

One cannot participate in the economy when one is long dead.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I still don't get why you think one thing has to do with the other one. I've said over and over the Invisible Hand thing isn't evidence for jack shit. You keep putting words in my mouth and pretending I think it is.

But to answer your question, I'm on the fence now. Not because of the Invisible Hand thing (which, let me say for the 100th time, DOESN'T MEAN JACK SHIT), but because of things other people have pointed out that suggest Adam Smith may not be able to learn player's roles.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Did you even read the post I wrote that explained the theory. It was based on Adam Smith's kill of Epi, and TinyBubbles' votes in the phase.

That has nothing to do with hosts revealing roles though. Hosts in this game reveal the name of the killer by default, and that is done in most of the games I've played too. Revealing the name of the killer and the role of the target are completely different things.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

it comes to my attention that i am not going to have much time at all during this day phase. expect me to be largely absent (at least by the standards of my activity level so far) all the way through the lynch deadline. i'll do my best to keep up with the thread and place an educated vote, but i can't promise to be heavily involved with any discussions until early Sunday morning.

[Golden]

OK, im actually getting some of day 3 read now and my suspicion of TH is going way down. I didn't realise how critical he was in the BR lynch. It seems to me that for TH to be bad there would have to be some serious bussing going on.

[Turnip Head]

OK, im actually getting some of day 3 read now and my suspicion of TH is going way down. I didn't realise how critical he was in the BR lynch. It seems to me that for TH to be bad there would have to be some serious bussing going on.

Glad you followed through with reading this. I've been doing good work lately

What do you think about Roxy?

[Golden]

I do have thoughts on both Roxy and also DDL. But I intend to post them in more depth and actually go back and do a read on both of them. If I was to do a rainbow right now they would be red, aether and splints have probably moved back to orange, and I have TH in the blue probably.

[Turnip Head]

Looking forward to your thoughts on both, though I think you might be offtrack with DDL, who himself is stuck offtrack with G-Man. The "rules" for G-Man's posting restrictions continue to amuse me. Now his posts are pictures with customized text :P But DDL seems genuine to me so far and I'm liking his thought process lately. Only thing that really stands out is his aether vote yesterday, but it's tough to know if that really stands out, since we still don't know aether's alignment and she could easily be just as bad as BR was.

[Golden]

I'm reading DDL's yesterday for the first time through fresh eyes knowing his vote for aether and how the lynch went down and it doesn't smell of roses for me but I will get to it, hopefully tonight, if not then tomorrow. And with both of them before I really feel solidly one way or the other what I want to do is a full iso from day one because it's something I haven't had cause to do (except on TinyBubbles TinyISO) from being mostly dead.

[Golden]

I believe I've now read every post in the thread.

It's all still out of order and out of context in my brain, but at least I feel like I'm caught up.

[Turnip Head]

I believe I've now read every post in the thread.

It's all still out of order and out of context in my brain, but at least I feel like I'm caught up.

That's great to hear.

[Marmot]

I believe I've now read every post in the thread.

It's all still out of order and out of context in my brain, but at least I feel like I'm caught up.

Sounds like a job for REZZERECTION MAN. He reads all the posts, and he's always ready for some "raging" in the thread!

[fingersplints]

Fair enough. I still think the possibility of you bussing BR is rather low.

But ragequitting won't do yourself any favors. If you go "just lynch me", we'll have to lynch you. You should stay here and keep discussing.

I did not quit. But I see the way this is going. If you think I am not going to share my thoughts on others while I am going down you have another thing coming.

I'm not forcing you to lynch me by saying "just lynch me" and I disagree that that is what you would HAVE to do.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The current course of this game does not appear to be directed towards your lynch this phase, splints. What do you make of MP's reversal on you?

[Golden]

I thought I'd so the one I see as easier tonight, Roxy.

I'm actually sort of surprised at how little I found. In fact, it makes me doubt myself, because a lot of her defenses are things that I don't think speak to her alignment very well.

I think I'll split this up into things against Roxy and things in her favour (then I also added 'neutral things'). See it as a narrative, I went through in order and added to each thing as they came up.

Against

I remember not even noticing Roxy while I was alive the first time and my read of her day one reminds me why. There wasn't much to it and nothing there that I feel speaks much to her alignment. She did go after TH which at the time I felt would have been our best lynch.

This post was the one that immediately pinged me after I died and why I came back into the game thinking roxy was bad.

Bye Golden this site hates people who return after long absences - Idk why.

I knew he was civ and am so surprised MP did not immediately feel the same.
I also wish others. who know him better would have spoke out more.

I mean, I wished this completely too. But even to me it felt very strong to say that she 'knew' I was civ. It always bothers me when people are more certain about me than they should be. I definitely think my civ game was showing through, but most people who knew me spoke up for me and those who voted for me essentially didn't know me. I had this ping for a similar reason to my ping on TB - supporting me in the thread but not voting to save me felt like the best of both worlds, I'm a good person for them to see go especially if they don't have to get their hands dirty doing it.

Whats more, I see that later JJJ called her out for it, and I remember her snarky response caught my eye as well:

this is probably the most interesting snippet from Roxy's post history so far for me. it's true that she had expressed a positive read of Golden earlier in the phase in response to TH's vote. but beyond that she didn't seem to make any strong effort at all to prevent his lynch. in this post she laments that MP and other Syndicate regulars didn't speak out for him more, and that "she knew he was a civ". i would assert that if she felt that way, nobody in the game was better suited to save his butt than she was. so why didn't you speak out for him more, Roxy?

bc I work Jimmy, obv something you do not have to do on a regular basis quite yet. There are plenty of others who have played as much with Golden as I have. splints, BR, MP have also played with him tbh I was surprised no one else saw his civ game for what it was.

One thing I'm particularly looking for out of this is whether or not Roxy continues to suspect any of these three for 'not seeing my civ game'...

I think JJJ makes another good point in that post (particularly looking like a good point now that I'm reading TH as more responsible for BR's lynch), actually, he analyses this bit of Roxy's post which I skipped very well, this one here:

TH - your Golden vote and subsequent reasoning was so shady. When I read your elaboration fr your vote it read like it was something you came up with bc you needed something to explain your vote. I knew that new players would listen you and MP but I thought they would be able to see through that charade of a vote.

this is face value mafioso to me. Roxy doesn't make this negative assessment of TH's vote until after the lynch has been finalized and the town flip has been revealed. she asserts in this very comment that she felt that way at the time TH posted it, before the lynch finalized, and even that she thought other players would "see through the charade". but again, she made very little concerted effort herself, if any at all, to do anything about it when it mattered. she made this accusation retrospectively when it no longer made any difference because the damage was done. it reads to me like this, in so many words:

"you guys made a huge mistake. i can't believe you guys made that huge mistake. i wouldn't have made that huge mistake. i thought you guys would realize it'd be a huge mistake."

and that is not helpful.

Roxy was already after TH during the day phase, but I do think the indignant language like 'how could you make such a bad mistake' came after, and this is exactly what was pinging me.

Then there is the splints buddying which bothers me eg

splints - seems to be her "A" game and I like it. I am getting townie vibes from her (I am not the best at reading her but better than some) I find myself agreeing with her and it usually only happens when we are both good. She nailed me to the cross in my first post in our last game together so I really trust her gut when it comes time to hunt baddies.

Sorry to have missed the vote I had work and family issues to resolve.

splints made her case from the begining - some said she had tunnel vision otherssaid she was not actively pursuing baddies now suddenly she is bussing someone????

Does anyone read my posts about her?? I am sooooo surprised at MP, he knows her as well as me and should know that this is her civ game. I am not liking what he is saying.
Splints has given us our first mafia in a lynch and you all think she is bad after gunning for BR since Day 1!
on anyone who srsly ursues her for lynch.

Neutral Things

Essentially the things I see here are just those things Roxy has said that I believe are honest, and that she would say if she was civ (but that don't really prove she is civ either). Roxy has answered a lot of questions levelled at her with things that I know are true. My view on these things is I'm not taking them into account when weighing up if she is bad to if she is good.

When she says she has a practice of not voting newbies on day one, I can vouch for that (and I have the same policy). It was standard practice at STV where we both originally came from, you weren't respected if you voted the newbie on day one.

I do know Roxy has been making a concerted effort to play games at other sites and is stretching herself deliberately thin, and I do know that her time is limited. When she says she has RL stuff, I don't think she is lying.

Roxy does always preach quality over quantity, and she is honest that she has never been a high poster. Her points about high posters are ones I might usually have a problem with, but I don't from Roxy because I know it is her genuinely held belief. Also it's hard to when I (a high poster) even felt very overwhelmed by day one.

She speaks regularly to the syndicate customs, and I can't quibble with anything she says on that front.

Roxy's pattern of engagement is interesting. Almost her entire posting history is from day 2. I'm not sure what to make of that, really. But it's sort of noteworthy.

In favour

Roxy's patterns - going after TH, winding up JJJ for his posts. Very consistent.

She did seem reasonably consistent in her suspicion of BR, but didn't vote that way.

After my read back, the one thing that I think is very much in roxy's favour is that I did not notice anything which was inconsistent. In fact she has been very consistent, even to the extent of several pings where she has mentioned the same people several times. My impression of Roxy is that if she had a rainbow list it would barely have shifted over the course of the game. I'd be most interested to know if her view on TH has changed today.

Overall impressions

Roxy has one big sin, which is constantly defending people who she things is good. It feels almost like a caricature and I don't know if it's tone or what but it feels wrong. Roxy - your last question about your 'robust defense of me before my lynch'. You are right, it came after. Which in many ways is worse.

On the flip side - I guess there just is a lot less to go on that my gut told me there was. I felt pretty strongly icky about Roxy when I subbed back in, and the reread eased that a bit. I'd expect a baddie to be a little less consistent, I haven't seen any sign of her blowing with the wind at all. And except for the thing above (defences) nothing else sticks out to me as faux.

This reread felt unhelpful for me. My gut is at odds with my head.

[fingersplints]

The current course of this game does not appear to be directed towards your lynch this phase, splints. What do you make of MP's reversal on you?

It seemed to be going that way, but is no longer.

Well there are a couple options.

1. He is bad and knew I would come back good. My comments like "lynch him next" made him decide to backtrack so hopefully if I am lynched he wouldn't look so bad.

2. He has some sort of investigative ability OR prize and learned I was a civvie. There is also a role that gains btsc with another player each night - so it is possible for info to be shared that way as well. (for example in RR - Elo had that btsc role and I was a tracker. we set up a way to tell her in threadmy results that only us would notice)

3. He has no information but honestly revisited his suspicion.

He seemed to start reconsidering before the night was over, so I'm thinking 1 or 3 was more likely. I still think he is more likely to be bad, but as I was earlier in the game I could also see BR as having set him up to look like a teammate as well.

I still feel aether is likely to be bad. I could see Roxy being bad but I also since we are friends I could see her genuinely defending me like this as well.

[fingersplints]

also I would not be surprised to learn that TB was Adam Smith. In the Narnia game I remember her to be quiet, but after the game I was impressed by her use of her protect ability. (she correctly identified me as a civvie and protected me twice, and I forget who else) It seemed like she was following along better then one might have guessed from her posts.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Fair enough. I still think the possibility of you bussing BR is rather low.

But ragequitting won't do yourself any favors. If you go "just lynch me", we'll have to lynch you. You should stay here and keep discussing.

I did not quit. But I see the way this is going. If you think I am not going to share my thoughts on others while I am going down you have another thing coming.

I'm not forcing you to lynch me by saying "just lynch me" and I disagree that that is what you would HAVE to do.

Splints made me notice something here. DDL's "we'll have to lynch you" is exactly the kind of language mafia often use when taking advantage of disgruntled/quitting townies.

I know you're not quitting splints. This is about perception.

[G-Man]

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Fair enough. I still think the possibility of you bussing BR is rather low.

But ragequitting won't do yourself any favors. If you go "just lynch me", we'll have to lynch you. You should stay here and keep discussing.

I did not quit. But I see the way this is going. If you think I am not going to share my thoughts on others while I am going down you have another thing coming.

I'm not forcing you to lynch me by saying "just lynch me" and I disagree that that is what you would HAVE to do.

Splints made me notice something here. DDL's "we'll have to lynch you" is exactly the kind of language mafia often use when taking advantage of disgruntled/quitting townies.

I know you're not quitting splints. This is about perception.

How do you think we should act with a player who throws a tantrum and stops posting? Let them be? Pray they'll show up again later in the game so we can read them again?

Lynching is the only logical path here. No one should be given a free pass because they got emotional and stopped trying. In fact, that's the point I'd start looking out for a jester (which thankfully there should be none of in this game).

That said, she didn't quit, so the point is moot.

[fingersplints]

I disagree that I "threw a tantrum"

When did I "stop posting"? I was literally only gone for 12 hours as I slept and then walked my dog

[G-Man]

Fair enough. I still think the possibility of you bussing BR is rather low.

But ragequitting won't do yourself any favors. If you go "just lynch me", we'll have to lynch you. You should stay here and keep discussing.

I did not quit. But I see the way this is going. If you think I am not going to share my thoughts on others while I am going down you have another thing coming.

I'm not forcing you to lynch me by saying "just lynch me" and I disagree that that is what you would HAVE to do.

Splints made me notice something here. DDL's "we'll have to lynch you" is exactly the kind of language mafia often use when taking advantage of disgruntled/quitting townies.

I know you're not quitting splints. This is about perception.

How do you think we should act with a player who throws a tantrum and stops posting? Let them be? Pray they'll show up again later in the game so we can read them again?

Lynching is the only logical path here. No one should be given a free pass because they got emotional and stopped trying. In fact, that's the point I'd start looking out for a jester (which thankfully there should be none of in this game).

That said, she didn't quit, so the point is moot.

[G-Man]

[Tangrowth]

MP, could you talk about the things that concern you about Turnip, your second most suspicious rainbowman? i am asking for a lot of perspectives on him because i think his team is likely to win the game (no matter which team it is) if he isn't sorted out very soon.

You want me to really talk about Turnip? Elephant in the room?

[Tangrowth]

If anyone has objections to fully discussing Turnip, or anyone else for that matter, let's hear it.

[fingersplints]

Fair enough. I still think the possibility of you bussing BR is rather low.

But ragequitting won't do yourself any favors. If you go "just lynch me", we'll have to lynch you. You should stay here and keep discussing.

I did not quit. But I see the way this is going. If you think I am not going to share my thoughts on others while I am going down you have another thing coming.

I'm not forcing you to lynch me by saying "just lynch me" and I disagree that that is what you would HAVE to do.

Splints made me notice something here. DDL's "we'll have to lynch you" is exactly the kind of language mafia often use when taking advantage of disgruntled/quitting townies.

I know you're not quitting splints. This is about perception.

How do you think we should act with a player who throws a tantrum and stops posting? Let them be? Pray they'll show up again later in the game so we can read them again?

Lynching is the only logical path here. No one should be given a free pass because they got emotional and stopped trying. In fact, that's the point I'd start looking out for a jester (which thankfully there should be none of in this game).

That said, she didn't quit, so the point is moot.

Do you think he is the one responsible for your posting restriction? I still am not sure what's causing it, but when rereading just him I noticed this post:

Hey G-Man, are you even allowed to write full texts in images like that?

I agree other lynches may produce more information. But dunno, I'd give BR a little more time since she was sick last day and we can't really deny that. While aether had all the time to look like a townie and just failed spetacularly at that.

I agree BR looks like a baddie right now, though.

Usually the only person who gets mad about pictures with text added is whoever caused the curse.
(Also it's worth noting how he says BR looks bad but should be given a break for being sick. )

[Turnip Head]

If anyone has objections to fully discussing Turnip, or anyone else for that matter, let's hear it.

[acrosstheaether]

Is the person who causes the curse usually mafia?

[Tangrowth]

Before I talk about some other ideas I've had regarding players, I have some questions for all of you guys.

Everyone:
- How are you reading G-Man, under the assumption that he is cursed somehow to post in only pictures?
- How do you read G-Man, if instead you were to find out with certainty that he is NOT cursed to post in only pictures, that it was self-inflicted?

sanmateo:
- Tell me about Jay. You've expressed some minor concerns with his play all game. Just tell me everything you think about him and how you're feeling about him right now.

Golden 2.0:
- While I think you had some interesting thoughts/analysis on Roxy, and thank you for that, you did not note that Roxy has done the same thing as she did to you (Golden was civ!! How could you guys not tell?) with both TinyBubbles and splints (directed to me) as well. What do you make of that?

Dragon D. Luffy:
- What happened to your suspicion of me from early in the game?
- Who would you vote for right now if you had to vote immediately?

Bass:
- Can you elaborate on what you meant about BR being 'bad news'?
- Who are your current suspects and why?

Turnip:
- Who is your second suspect at the moment after Roxy and why?

aether:
- Can you explain your thought process behind your most recent rainbow? Has anything changed since that rainbow?

[Tangrowth]

If anyone has objections to fully discussing Turnip, or anyone else for that matter, let's hear it.

You must understand that I am having difficulty reconciling your behavior with a few scenarios in which you could be mafia, despite the fact that it would mean that you bussed BR.

Is the person who causes the curse usually mafia?

Depends, but probably, yeah. I have seen plenty of civilian curse-type roles though.

[Tangrowth]

Look, I've had a certain conundrum with Turnip ever since Day 1, and his behavior ever since has enforced that conundrum. Either one thing is true or another thing is true; I don't see much wiggle room.

If I've had it figured out for that long, surely the mafia, who have BTSC, have considered it.