U-Pick Mafia Vol 1 - Game Over

[Golden]

Golden, do you disagree that the mafia would have more direct control over who they night kill between three lynches than they would in a manipulative effort during three simultaneous lynches?

That is the remaining question for me.

I mean, it really depends on the roles involved. As a general rule yes but I’ve never subscribed to ‘lynch is for town, night kill for mafia’ to begin with. Every lynch is a tool for the mafia, this just increases their odds of success. Every NK is a tool for the town in a role madness game where you could have things like misdirect it’s, doctors, watchers.

What I’m saying is that this is AT BEST two kills for the town and one for the mafia which is kill neutral, at worst it’s kill negative, and without the other benefits.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I still don’t think the thing is obviously mafia favoring. If I am mafia I hate it.

Me too. Now I can't hide behind the second or third wagon, because those lynch people too. And the wagons immediately below those are also dangerous. It magnifies the power of every vote.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I want to restate that the last time Mac hosted two mafia teams, they both killed every night.

It was a long time ago and he may have changed. I dunno. That’s the precedent though.

[Kylemii]

going to a child cousins borthday party, will hopefully be around before deadline (5pst?)

[sig]

I wrote the fucking poll

I'm trying this hard to keep people off 6 for a reason. I thought I'd played it smarter than I obviously did. I never expected people to lemming their way on to an option that was so obviously mafia-favouring. But at this point I'm sure that's what has happened.

I didn't want to say this outright but at this point if I get nightkilled so be it. It's a cool role, but it's a waste of time if ends the civs game.

@Elohcin @sprityo @Lunalee @wolbre04 @Spacedaisy @Scotty @novaselinenever @speedchuck @sig @zephyrus @Dragon D. Luffy @Marmot @Long Con

okay i wont vote for 6 then

You flipped way to quickly i don't like it. The fact he made the poll has no bearing imo.

[Golden]

Also the fact this is a 31 player game provides another argument in favor of #6: expect more night kills than usual. Especially considering it's also a bastard game. A huge game like this tends to mean less power to the lynches and more power to night abilities.

Well, I like the idea of bring power back to lynches.

This still lives in the fallacy that night abilities favour mafia and day activities favour town.

If there are four kills and three are civ vig shots, that’s not a great night for mafia control.

[Golden]

I want to restate that the last time Mac hosted two mafia teams, they both killed every night.

It was a long time ago and he may have changed. I dunno. That’s the precedent though.

I’m pretty confident this will be true.

[wolbre04]

The Boobquest feels like one million years ago.

well its because im been working ffs
I'll know tonight if one of you rats has my other tit in your greasy hands

from your angle is there any reason why someone would hide Steve Tyler's Top Sirloin from you? any benefit?

I thought about this when working bc i can get written up for listening to music so it's me and my thoughts all night long.
Reasons to hide it (Note: These are from the POV of that person who knows nothing about my role and idk much either abt when i find the boobie):
They think I have a kill mechanic I'd use on them
I rob them of something
I vanillaize them
Or they;re just afk or clueless
They think im not allied with them
Maybe they want to kill me

Reasons to claim it:
I'm a fucking beast
Bc telling me and seeing what happens would be fun maybe
Maybe we get a BTSC for knowing one another
Maybe we both benefit in some other way
I'll visit them if theyre lying, if they have a veteran type role where they can shoot me that might be advantageous if they dont like me :/


but tbqh my role has lots of hidden parts to it i have to unlock via task completion so idk. i couldnt sing this weekend bc of work and im a mess

[Sloonei]

I still don’t think the thing is obviously mafia favoring. If I am mafia I hate it.

Me too. Now I can't hide behind the second or third wagon, because those lynch people too. And the wagons immediately below those are also dangerous. It magnifies the power of every vote.

Good point !

[wolbre04]

crawling into my bed now, gn friends and boob holder (I will find you and snatch your titty)

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also the fact this is a 31 player game provides another argument in favor of #6: expect more night kills than usual. Especially considering it's also a bastard game. A huge game like this tends to mean less power to the lynches and more power to night abilities.

Well, I like the idea of bring power back to lynches.

This still lives in the fallacy that night abilities favour mafia and day activities favour town.

If there are four kills and three are civ vig shots, that’s not a great night for mafia control.

Vig shots are less informed than lynches by definition. A lynch is a bunch of people debating a consensus, a vig shot is a tinfoil. And mafia is in a better position to stop them with doctors/roleblockers/redirectors than we are, since they have more information overall.

Mafia kills are a lot more likely to hit town than opposing mafia.

[Golden]

Also the fact this is a 31 player game provides another argument in favor of #6: expect more night kills than usual. Especially considering it's also a bastard game. A huge game like this tends to mean less power to the lynches and more power to night abilities.

Well, I like the idea of bring power back to lynches.

This still lives in the fallacy that night abilities favour mafia and day activities favour town.

If there are four kills and three are civ vig shots, that’s not a great night for mafia control.

Vig shots are less informed than lynches by definition. A lynch is a bunch of people debating a consensus, a vig shot is a tinfoil. And mafia is in a better position to stop them with doctors/roleblockers/redirectors than we are, since they have more information overall.

Mafia kills are a lot more likely to hit town than opposing mafia.

Consensus is not inherently more informed than an individual, as the current status of this poll proves.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also the fact this is a 31 player game provides another argument in favor of #6: expect more night kills than usual. Especially considering it's also a bastard game. A huge game like this tends to mean less power to the lynches and more power to night abilities.

Well, I like the idea of bring power back to lynches.

This still lives in the fallacy that night abilities favour mafia and day activities favour town.

If there are four kills and three are civ vig shots, that’s not a great night for mafia control.

Vig shots are less informed than lynches by definition. A lynch is a bunch of people debating a consensus, a vig shot is a tinfoil. And mafia is in a better position to stop them with doctors/roleblockers/redirectors than we are, since they have more information overall.

Mafia kills are a lot more likely to hit town than opposing mafia.

Consensus is not inherently more informed than an individual, as the current status of this poll proves.

Yes it is. I've hosted enough games to know that. Vigs are bumbling idiots. They will often kill a perfectly civ-looking supatown everyone thinks is civ except for the vig. Lynches don't let that happen.

[ColinIsCool]

I had my son Richard take a loon at the poll. He said that option 2 is “terrible.” Because “limiting discussion to such a narrow scope is prone to stagnate the progression of reads at this early stage of the game. While certain reads may be magnified to an extent, the number of players and ideas which may be stuck on the back burner is immeasurable, and it may prove a challenge to resurrect and ignite those talks later on. It happened in another game recently and the day was dead quiet and uninspiring.”
Those are my son Richard’s words, we are so proud of him and his son, Benjamin ! Thank you

Tell Richard I said thanks for articulating this, ma’am. I have hemmed and hawed about 2 but I can’t support it, we could be throwing all 50 pages away like that.

[Sloonei]

I had my son Richard take a loon at the poll. He said that option 2 is “terrible.” Because “limiting discussion to such a narrow scope is prone to stagnate the progression of reads at this early stage of the game. While certain reads may be magnified to an extent, the number of players and ideas which may be stuck on the back burner is immeasurable, and it may prove a challenge to resurrect and ignite those talks later on. It happened in another game recently and the day was dead quiet and uninspiring.”
Those are my son Richard’s words, we are so proud of him and his son, Benjamin ! Thank you

Tell Richard I said thanks for articulating this, ma’am. I have hemmed and hawed about 2 but I can’t support it, we could be throwing all 50 pages away like that.

He’s a very sweet boy !

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Sorry if I'm being a bit blunt, but I have 4 years of playing in a site where every game has a vig and almost all of them were pathetically innacurate. I've seen great scumhunters completely shit the bed once they were given a vig role. Being alone makes your ability to read people worse.

[Sloonei]

Sorry if I'm being a bit blunt, but I have 4 years of playing in a site where every game has a vig and almost all of them were pathetically innacurate. I've seen great scumhunters completely shit the bed once they were given a vig role. Being alone makes your ability to read people worse.

Vigilantes can be great when they know what they are doing

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Golden is right about one thing being lost in the continuing dialogue. #6 likely nets one extra lynch, not two. The third is misleading.

It’s still one more which is something, but if you’re voting on the basis of getting two more, you should reconsider that thinking.

[Sloonei]

Why are we talking about vigilantes?

[Turnip Head]

I wrote the fucking poll

Which constitutional law should be in place for tomorrow?

how did i not see this cumming

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Why are we talking about vigilantes?

Because not having a triple lynch means more chances for vigs to shoot people.

And yes I'm assuming there are vigs.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

If you guys really hate Option 6 I can vote for Option 1, but not as long as #2 is a possibility.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Like #2 and #6 are the divisive options everybody is either hyped or scared for, while #1 is the boring option we all know is good but not really amazing.

[ColinIsCool]

Vigs are going to exercise their power regardless of what we do in the poll, unless they’re dead. Are you saying you’d like to see a town vig lynched?

[ColinIsCool]

while #1 is the boring option we all know is good but not really amazing.

This is what I’m like as a romantic partner. Vote 1!

[Turnip Head]

If you guys really hate Option 6 I can vote for Option 1, but not as long as #2 is a possibility.

I worry that #1 will mean the second most popular suspect will get lynched over everybody's first choice.

although mayyyyyybe that's how we should have been playing all along...

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Vigs are going to exercise their power regardless of what we do in the poll, unless they’re dead. Are you saying you’d like to see a town vig lynched?

If you didn't understand what I said don't put words in my mouth. Of course I don't want a civ lynched.

If we have more lynches, the game will be shorter overall, which means we'll have less night kills. The ratio of lynches/night kills in this game will be higher, which is good for civs imo.

[Sloonei]

Option 6 is the most exciting. Grandma Sloon lives for excitement, buckaroos. Maybe.

[nutella]

I wrote the fucking poll

I'm trying this hard to keep people off 6 for a reason. I thought I'd played it smarter than I obviously did. I never expected people to lemming their way on to an option that was so obviously mafia-favouring. But at this point I'm sure that's what has happened.

I didn't want to say this outright but at this point if I get nightkilled so be it. It's a cool role, but it's a waste of time if ends the civs game.

@Elohcin @sprityo @Lunalee @wolbre04 @Spacedaisy @Scotty @novaselinenever @speedchuck @sig @zephyrus @Dragon D. Luffy @Marmot @Long Con

oh lol

[Turnip Head]

Is there a Mr. Grandma Sloon?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Do other players agree with DDL’s characterization of those he mentioned as “low-hanging fruit”?

When I look at Eloh, I see someone with 23 wins, 10 of which are mafia. Thats 43% of her wins that are mafia wins. Even Epi, who is widely regarded as the best at playing mafia, is only at 30%. I consider her a dangerous player and she Imo has some iffy posts this game so I do not see her as low hanging fruit. I looked through the 2018 side missions to see if I could find games where she was lynched early and I could only see that she was lynched in Mountain Men where she was bad. Maybe DDL can give us a list of the games where she was lynched early so we can see what he means.

I don't know about Marmot but I would like to know from DDL which games he was lynched early in.

lots of linki

I don't recall her being lynched early, but I recall her being lynched. A lot.

[Epignosis]

Vigs are bumbling idiots.

Man, I had an experience with one of those just the other day. It's true.

[Sloonei]

Is there a Mr. Grandma Sloon?

YES HIS NAME IS GERALD

[Long Con]

I wrote the fucking poll

I'm trying this hard to keep people off 6 for a reason. I thought I'd played it smarter than I obviously did. I never expected people to lemming their way on to an option that was so obviously mafia-favouring. But at this point I'm sure that's what has happened.

I didn't want to say this outright but at this point if I get nightkilled so be it. It's a cool role, but it's a waste of time if ends the civs game.

@Elohcin @sprityo @Lunalee @wolbre04 @Spacedaisy @Scotty @novaselinenever @speedchuck @sig @zephyrus @Dragon D. Luffy @Marmot @Long Con

Jolly good, sir! Hoist by your own petard, eh? Can't wait until the full irony sinks in when you are lynchee #3!

I see that all logic has failed. I throw up my hands.

Shouldn't have eaten them.

Does the fact that there are multiple scumteams change anything in your eyes?

No.

The thing is there is just so much imattention at play here. Like DDL saying it’s two free lynches when I’ve demonstrated it’s only one, for example. The numbers here are bad - I’m absolutely certain this option reduces the towns chances of winning at this stage - perhaps even dramatically so. It’s a thoroughly stupid option for town to pick but like I have said, it’s very hard to ever convince people to listen to me, their ‘gut feel’ is better to them than raw facts.

I appreciate your frustration here, but what are the raw facts that render this a poor choice in a non-LyLo scenario?

It has become a question of value for added time and flips versus transferring mafia control over the body count from night kills to a public domain.

I can see arguments both ways, but not some manner of mathematical certainty. If that exists already or can be demonstrated, I am listening.

All of the factors involved could be quantified as town or mafia leaning.

As noted by others, not only are the numbers in favour of stepping through one by one, there is the additional matter of:

1) Having to split town voting thin across the wagons
2) Not being informed by each flip before making the next choice
3) The fact you are replacing a more informed vote later with a less informed vote now

I mean, put it this way... if our first choice is bad, we would ordinarily get to make the next two choices based on their flip. This way we probably just follow it up with two pointless civ deaths that wouldn't have otherwise happened.

I could write a lecture on this dismissing every point in favour with a counterpoint but I'd rather people just listened to my plea above frankly.

None of your arguments have addressed exactly how the Mafias would be likely to take advantage of the three-lynched poll, and how, KNOWING some methods of advantage-taking, we can use that logical foresight to either cancel the baddies' method of advantage, or even better, catch them in the act!

[Turnip Head]

Is there a Mr. Grandma Sloon?

YES HIS NAME IS GERALD

I have not been reading the tabloids

[Turnip Head]

Welcome to the game Con

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Seriously, though, the scumteams should be actually hunting this game, since there are rogues and another team. Why not let everyone have a go at it? We have 30ish players and nobody has died yet.

This dramatic reduction thing is hogwash. It's just an extra phase worth of players lost, worst case. Best case, it puts mafia under as much pressure as us.

So your preferred scenario is one where mafia members can A. get closer to their win con easier and B. earn town cred by having a better shot at catching an opposing scum? How does that help town? I’m wary about the possibility of a scum catching another one and walking away looking pretty good in players’ eyes, in any lynch. 3 lynches makes that so much easier.

Are you saying we shouldn't lynch mafia because giving credit for opposing mafia is a bad thing?

Like what the hell?

[ColinIsCool]

Vigs are going to exercise their power regardless of what we do in the poll, unless they’re dead. Are you saying you’d like to see a town vig lynched?

If you didn't understand what I said don't put words in my mouth. Of course I don't want a civ lynched.

If we have more lynches, the game will be shorter overall, which means we'll have less night kills. The ratio of lynches/night kills in this game will be higher, which is good for civs imo.

Ooh, feisty, I like it. Maybe you should try saying things clearly so that big ol’ dummies like me don’t ask so many questions?

I don’t think more lynches are automatically better if they’re uninformed lynches. And if the game is shorter, it could be harder to catch scum. We’d be handing away night powers, discussion, analysis, etc. ... not good for town.

[Sloonei]

Is there a Mr. Grandma Sloon?

YES HIS NAME IS GERALD

I have not been reading the tabloids

So disrespectful...

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Don't ask me silly questions like "do you want to lynch civs"?

Sorry dude, you didn't just catch the scumslip of the year.

[Sloonei]

When does this poll end?

[ColinIsCool]

Seriously, though, the scumteams should be actually hunting this game, since there are rogues and another team. Why not let everyone have a go at it? We have 30ish players and nobody has died yet.

This dramatic reduction thing is hogwash. It's just an extra phase worth of players lost, worst case. Best case, it puts mafia under as much pressure as us.

So your preferred scenario is one where mafia members can A. get closer to their win con easier and B. earn town cred by having a better shot at catching an opposing scum? How does that help town? I’m wary about the possibility of a scum catching another one and walking away looking pretty good in players’ eyes, in any lynch. 3 lynches makes that so much easier.

Are you saying we shouldn't lynch mafia because giving credit for opposing mafia is a bad thing?

Like what the hell?

No. I’m saying that speed’s specific rationale here is dangerous.

[dunya]

at 2am my time. so in 3 hrs and 16mins

linki [mention]Sloonei[/mention]

[ColinIsCool]

Don't ask me silly questions like "do you want to lynch civs"?

Sorry dude, you didn't just catch the scumslip of the year.

Meryl Streep is always nominated for that, it’s really not fair.

[dunya]

DEADPOOL 2 WAS AMAZINGGGGGGG. EVERYONE SHOULD GET OFF THEIR ASSES AND GO SEE IT SO THAT DEADPOOL 3 BECOMES A THING

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Seriously, though, the scumteams should be actually hunting this game, since there are rogues and another team. Why not let everyone have a go at it? We have 30ish players and nobody has died yet.

This dramatic reduction thing is hogwash. It's just an extra phase worth of players lost, worst case. Best case, it puts mafia under as much pressure as us.

So your preferred scenario is one where mafia members can A. get closer to their win con easier and B. earn town cred by having a better shot at catching an opposing scum? How does that help town? I’m wary about the possibility of a scum catching another one and walking away looking pretty good in players’ eyes, in any lynch. 3 lynches makes that so much easier.

Are you saying we shouldn't lynch mafia because giving credit for opposing mafia is a bad thing?

Like what the hell?

No. I’m saying that speed’s specific rationale here is dangerous.

If that is dangerous, then any rationale that attempts to get scum lynched is dangerous.

At the point the only way to avoid that danger is not signing up for mafia games.

[Sloonei]

at 2am my time. so in 3 hrs and 16mins

linki Sloonei

Thank you dear! Such a sweet girl!

[Turnip Head]

Is there a Mr. Grandma Sloon?

YES HIS NAME IS GERALD

I have not been reading the tabloids

So disrespectful...

I morph into a nursing home tomorrow night so dontchyu worry 'bout a thang, bunky

[dunya]

at 2am my time. so in 3 hrs and 16mins

linki Sloonei

Thank you dear! Such a sweet girl!

you're welcome nana <3

[Sloonei]

DEADPOOL 2 WAS AMAZINGGGGGGG. EVERYONE SHOULD GET OFF THEIR ASSES AND GO SEE IT SO THAT DEADPOOL 3 BECOMES A THING

Please mind your language...