Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]

[tedxtr]

I can't believe this survivor show has like 50 seasons or something and I can only find like 4 relevant gifs

survivor woat

[112]

but who's the third wolf

[112]

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] - what do YOU feel about Wilgy? Could you comment on my case?

[Ash Lael]

I got less from reading through Tony than I hoped. Did get a few interesting things though.

sorry guys, i was feeling pretty lousy and turns out i had some food poisoning and im still a little out of it but im here

gth reads without reading the thread, but a few tone-posts from each player here we go

112 - w
Arete - t
Ash Lael - w
DrWilgy - t
Hally - w
Long Con - t
Michelle - w
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - t
Poison Chan - t
tedxtr - w
TonyStarkPrime - t
TripleHaven - t
tutuu - t
Vulgard - t

my poe is
112
ash
hally
michelle
ted

i wanna say my strongest town reads are nanook and longcon tbh. my weakest wolf read is ted, so i will not vote for him until day 3 at least.

the person i think most likely could swing w from my t reads is vulgard for possible tmi, but i will eventually read up (or not) see what he has to offer.

high poster hally in a vacuum should be town, but i felt like she was gaslighting us with questions and content which she doesn't really build from. like they're prods and questions which she doesn't really care about one way or the other.

don't really know much about tsp, except he didn't like one of my posts and i like that reaction. no idea if triplehaven has posted yet, i'll get there.

wilgy im giving a soul town read to.

The bolded is always a weird thing to think about. I think because Dunya expressed it directly here maybe it's more likely to come from town? Level 1 is it means w!dunya because t!dunya gets mad at me for an incorrect read, but I don't think Dunya plays like that.
It's a decent looking poe though. Neither of arete or vulgard. I think scum who's skimming would throw one in.

Also, TR on LC. Spicy.

I'll move my vote for now.

First off, the infamous TMI thing. I said at the time and I maintain now, this was Tony knowing they are town/town. Vulgard is now confirmed, and I will be treating Arete as all-but-mech-cleared off this.

But maybe it means I'm reading Hally wrong?

why would it mean that

So there are a few options here:

1) t!Tutuu is playing as Tutuu always does. I'm paranoid for no reason. You are correct. Then me thinking that it's weird that you don't think Tutuu is playing differently is wrong. That'd be how I'd be wrong.
or 2) t!tutuu is projecting towniness by thinking she's playing as she always does while her actual game is different for completely unrelated reasons
3) w!tutuu options I won't split up

what does any of this have to do with my alignment?

also did you expect tutuu to say she was playing differently if shes scum?

it has to do with your alignment because lying is anti town, and because I had thought that Tutuu was obviously different and thus for denying this clear truth you were more likely scum.

if tutuu's scum then she'd know she was playing differently. She wouldn't deny it then, I think. Also, denying it has a good thread position if w!tutuu, since it makes everyone look bad.

oh wait when you said you were wrong about me you meant wrong about me being scum? so you tr me now? but i thought you tr me before? when did you sr me? did i just forget that happened

I neither town read nor scum read you. Overall there has been nothing that moves you to the "Hally town" category but frankly I've just witnessed you play two excellent scum games and on this I might be hesistant to throw you in that category for those reasons. I think you have a good thread position, but there are negatives. Which is actually the same as tutuu, dunya, poison. Probably the same as Vul for people who scum read Vul.

There's a lot of weird, hedgy, inconsistent posts on Hally. Not gonna quote them all but this one is emblematic.

honestly the best evidence that I'm town is that Ash scumreads me tbh

People are being super villagery wtf are you talking about

except u and hally i doubt anyone is outside their mafia range I M O

talk to me about hally

This is interesting. Prompting a villager to put reasons why Hally is town into the thread.

why was th yeeted is a funny question and the question probably should be why was th yeeted /over wilgy/

kinda feelin hally wilgy ngl

didn’t mac say wilgy is a very good scum player and wouldn’t slank so much as scum? because this is hard core slanking

Then there’s this later which ended up keeping Wilgy from being the cw

I'm more interesting in understanding why Mac's opinion about Wilgy is relevant here to anyone.

You all know that

1) Mac isn't in this and
2) Mac says utter bullshit to advance whatever Mac (sober or otherwise) wishes to advance

Right?

Well the view I’m positing that you don’t like is that Hally brought it up to steer the lynch away from Wilgy

The Hally/Wilgy argument is actually valid, I think.

Like, I don't think that's the world we're in, but she totally did play a role in making TH Tony's counterwagon instead of Wilgy. And now she's pushing Long Con ahead of him.

A scum strategy where the powerwolf keeps pushing some other scummy player as a marginally better choice than their PoE partner could be a thing.

You would have to convince me that Hally is bad. Can you do that?

Somethin somethin Bayes

what do you mean by bayes? i don't quite understand.

in this scenario hally is bad only if wilgy is bad. I don't think Hally is a wolf, but I definitely don't think HAlly is a wolf if Wilgy isn't a wolf. therefore, I don't feel a need to argue for hally being a wolf.

In this series of posts Tony tries to link Wilgy with Hally. A wolf can scum read their partner. They can scum read town. They can link towns together as wolves. They can link a partner with a town.

What they almost never do is link both partners together. Off this, I'm happy calling Hally/Wilgy hard disaligned. Which actually isn't that big a revelation since Wilgy is unlikely to be partnered with Tony anyway, but still.

Also, note the choice to say Wilgy goes first here. I think this is telling. It's the time honoured "link your partner to a town, push the town" strategy.

The Hally/Wilgy argument is actually valid, I think.

Like, I don't think that's the world we're in, but she totally did play a role in making TH Tony's counterwagon instead of Wilgy. And now she's pushing Long Con ahead of him.

A scum strategy where the powerwolf keeps pushing some other scummy player as a marginally better choice than their PoE partner could be a thing.

What the heck
I take it all back
Everything I said was wrong

what do you think is right Mr.Tony?

ash and 112 ash and 112 ash and 112

This could potentially be the same thing with the other partner. This is one of several times Tony links me and 112, but he spends his time pushing me.

can we not kill lc

or do

whatever

I'm listening. Tell me why I'm wrong about him.

listen to me: LC is town.

Tony wanted Michelle over Long Con. Hally also didn't want LC, though she decided not to really nail her colours to the mast. Instead she stays on Michelle until popping in very late when it's too late to switch and declaring them both villagers. A Hally/LC/Tony team is very viable.

uh oh do we have a poisoner or something

on one hand everyone should avoid spewing themselves non-poisoner for reasons of maintaining game integrity but on the other hand i do not like poison

This is just funny given subsequent events.

[Ash Lael]

I'm willing to have my mind changed but you do so by hunting a scum more often than defending yourself, probably.

Idk if it's reasonable to think 112 is town here but fmpov their performance here was more than stellar and filled with plenty of gambits, if they're a wolf

I wanna vote Arete but everybody seems to be against that.

i get it, i really do. but i don’t really have the motivation to hunt more than i have. this game is just not my game

just vote wilgy with me for now imo

why?

I'm town and if you're town you know you're town and that your yeet is bad.

Wilgy is hard PoEd right now and his ISO is lackluster.

This reads as w/w:

i really hate saying stuff like this but i feel i have to put my foot down and say that i absolutely refuse to allow a nook wagon to happen. @DrWilgy @Long Con you should move. nook is town

Kay

you're not helpful

Want me to vote 112?

He's made bizarre pushes, e.g against TH:

didn’t mac say wilgy is a very good scum player and wouldn’t slank so much as scum? because this is hard core slanking

Lol I'm the slankiest

trip has you beat but im pretty sure she’s straight up not playing anymore

Hmm... This town ain't big enough for the two of us.

Let's yeet Trip!

and later recants and says:

BTW there's no reason why my "Let's yeet trip" should've actually took off amd taken the lead.

Id be bamboozled if TSP wasn't saved there.

which also reads as TMI

And he repeatedly, towards the end of his ISO, asks for Tony to be yeeted while barely being involved in the game. That's too good of a read to come from someone with like 30 posts.

I don't buy it. Wilgy doesn't nakedly walk into the thread and ask his partner where he should vote I don't think. Wolves can do wifom-y things where they act partnered to look unpartnered, but I just don't believe that a wolf who is barely playing does that. They're just disaligned.

I do admit he seems a bit more confident of Tony flipping red than he had any right to be, but come on. In wolf Wilgy world he's the busee not the busser.

[Ash Lael]

it’s so obvious im a villager ted if you actually know me and how i play but i really can’t convince you if you don’t see it. but like, my activity is too high for my wolf game. the way im just flailing around having no idea what im doing is never from my wolf game. my constant flip flopping and lack of confidence in my reads is never from my wolf game. my wolf game is cleaner. it makes more sense and has an agenda to it. there is no agenda to things i’ve done this game. also the way im like “i don’t care about this game” but then keep posting anyway and clearly do care is like... always town!me because i cant help but care even as i try to convince myself i don’t. but like, if this stuff isn’t self evident to you i can’t really sell you on it. you either see it or you don’t, and i certainly haven’t made it easy because this is probably one of my worst town games ever broadly speaking

I'm not post count clearing one of the world's best wolves.

[tedxtr]

Yeah can’t really get past the TSP progression.

Looked like Hally had TMI there.

[Ash Lael]

kinda feel like we should sheep nook and give tony a day

This post is giving me horror scenario hally/Nanook/TSP thoughts.

Spoiler: show

My logical brain says although that team could get away with aligning more than most I still think it would distance more. My lizard brain says but what if?

this is pretty funny and genius if true

I don't think it is. I think it's Hally shielding her partner and offloading the blame to a townie.

Nook hard defended Tony but he also hard defended me, at a time when I was tunneling Tony and scumreading Nook. What wolf sees mounting suspicion on an aggressive villager pushing two good wolf reads and says "Yeah, not letting a wagon happen on him"?

It's just not the world. Nook is town.

[Hally]

it’s so obvious im a villager ted if you actually know me and how i play but i really can’t convince you if you don’t see it. but like, my activity is too high for my wolf game. the way im just flailing around having no idea what im doing is never from my wolf game. my constant flip flopping and lack of confidence in my reads is never from my wolf game. my wolf game is cleaner. it makes more sense and has an agenda to it. there is no agenda to things i’ve done this game. also the way im like “i don’t care about this game” but then keep posting anyway and clearly do care is like... always town!me because i cant help but care even as i try to convince myself i don’t. but like, if this stuff isn’t self evident to you i can’t really sell you on it. you either see it or you don’t, and i certainly haven’t made it easy because this is probably one of my worst town games ever broadly speaking

I'm not post count clearing one of the world's best wolves.

1) even the best wolves have limits
2) im not one of the worlds best wolves. thats silly
3) there were other things in that post besides my post count lol

[Hally]

Yeah can’t really get past the TSP progression.

Looked like Hally had TMI there.

no it doesn’t lol

[tedxtr]

I have more concerns for Arete but I already predict it’s gonna be the same as me saying TSP was scum and I really don’t care

[Ash Lael]

it’s so obvious im a villager ted if you actually know me and how i play but i really can’t convince you if you don’t see it. but like, my activity is too high for my wolf game. the way im just flailing around having no idea what im doing is never from my wolf game. my constant flip flopping and lack of confidence in my reads is never from my wolf game. my wolf game is cleaner. it makes more sense and has an agenda to it. there is no agenda to things i’ve done this game. also the way im like “i don’t care about this game” but then keep posting anyway and clearly do care is like... always town!me because i cant help but care even as i try to convince myself i don’t. but like, if this stuff isn’t self evident to you i can’t really sell you on it. you either see it or you don’t, and i certainly haven’t made it easy because this is probably one of my worst town games ever broadly speaking

I'm not post count clearing one of the world's best wolves.

1) even the best wolves have limits
2) im not one of the worlds best wolves. thats silly
3) there were other things in that post besides my post count lol

I think you needed to make yourself look like you're "playing bad" to justify not getting NK'd, especially after you realised how much town cred and leadership status you were getting.

I think you've done that while also trying to guide events to your preferred outcomes.

And yeah, you are one of the world's best wolves. I'm proud of my wolf game and you're the only one that makes me go "Damn, how does she do it?"

[tedxtr]

[VOTE: Arete ] aubergine

Case coming later

[Hally]

ok. not gonna argue

[Ash Lael]

Clear:

Me
Ted
Poison
Arete
Nook

Likely town:

Wilgy
Epi - Not even off Tony's flip, just off their reaction at SoD. Immediately launched into solving and threw together a wall on 112 super fast. Just such a clear townie instinct to try to make sense of new info at a moment where a wolf would be reeling.

PoE
LC
112
Hally

This is just a lock for my money.

[Hally]

you need a different lock

[Ash Lael]

you need a different lock

Why, do you think it can't be LC/112?

[Ash Lael]

[VOTE: Arete ] aubergine

Case coming later

Ok, this is definitely town regardless of his Tony push. Getting fixated like this on a lynch that is just not going to happen, in this situation, is never a wolf I don't think.

But also dude, come on. It's not Arete.

[Hally]

you need a different lock

Why, do you think it can't be LC/112?

i think it’s kinda unlikely based on their interactions yea

[tedxtr]

[VOTE: Arete ] aubergine

Case coming later

Ok, this is definitely town regardless of his Tony push. Getting fixated like this on a lynch that is just not going to happen, in this situation, is never a wolf I don't think.

But also dude, come on. It's not Arete.

Your reasoning for town clearing Arete is something that I actually think is specifically designed to be anti-spew.

Why are they town outside of that small thing?

[Ash Lael]

[VOTE: Arete ] aubergine

Case coming later

Ok, this is definitely town regardless of his Tony push. Getting fixated like this on a lynch that is just not going to happen, in this situation, is never a wolf I don't think.

But also dude, come on. It's not Arete.

Your reasoning for town clearing Arete is something that I actually think is specifically designed to be anti-spew.

Why are they town outside of that small thing?

Apart from being spewed by Tony, there's Vulgard's god read and the fact that I don't believe Arete approaches a wagon on their partner d1 that way.

It looks exactly like SF3 when Arete got cold feet and jumped off a wolf late d1. As a wolf, if you don't want to be on a partner's wagon, you don't get on. If you do get on, you don't bail last second.

[tedxtr]

Seems like an easy thing to exploit

[Ash Lael]

Okay then, I'm locked clear because of my vote on Tony at the end of day one. I put it to a place where one person could decide that chopping a low poster was a crappy idea, switch over, and he's done. There were enough people online at the time to see it and someone could have switched.

Yeah, bull. Thirty literal seconds left.

[Ash Lael]

Seems like an easy thing to exploit

It's not though because lots of people incorrectly read it as wolf. Like you're doing and like some people did in SF3.

[DrWilgy]

Lol people wanting to yeet me for literally never being wrong.

Yeet Hally, sip some wine and smoke something of your taste. All to have a good day

[Long Con]

Okay then, I'm locked clear because of my vote on Tony at the end of day one. I put it to a place where one person could decide that chopping a low poster was a crappy idea, switch over, and he's done. There were enough people online at the time to see it and someone could have switched.

Yeah, bull. Thirty literal seconds left.

I do wish I had made it back sooner.

[Long Con]

Is ted lock clear as he claims, then? You didn't say his was bull.

[Ash Lael]

Is ted lock clear as he claims, then? You didn't say his was bull.

Ted's clear, yeah. There was no way for him to know Tony wouldn't die when he voted. And he actually pushed the wagon rather than just slapping a vote on it.

[Long Con]

Do you think Hally's ennui is an affected scum ploy?

[Ash Lael]

Do you think Hally's ennui is an affected scum ploy?

I do, yes. I think she could have found someone to scumread in this list if she were actually looking for a wolf. To be fair she also could have done that if she was looking for a mislynch, but I don’t think she felt the need to look for a mislynch. She just needed to make sure she got towncored without being halfway-ruled.

[DrWilgy]

Do you think Hally's ennui is an affected scum ploy?

What does that word mean?

[Ash Lael]

Do you think Hally's ennui is an affected scum ploy?

What does that word mean?

Ennui is like unhappiness/dissatisfaction. He’s talking about all her “idk I’m bad at this game please kill me so I don’t have to play” stuff.

[112]

gonna hard towncore when i say i aleady knew what ennui meant

drunk rn but if wigly isn't maf i'll eat a \hat

not just some baseball cap but an actual sombrero like in the wild west movies or something

the way i see it, there can't be more than two scum at present so i encourage everyone to come up with a two scum team that doesn't inclu7de= wilgy

[Ash Lael]

gonna hard towncore when i say i aleady knew what ennui meant

drunk rn but if wigly isn't maf i'll eat a \hat

not just some baseball cap but an actual sombrero like in the wild west movies or something

the way i see it, there can't be more than two scum at present so i encourage everyone to come up with a two scum team that doesn't inclu7de= wilgy

Hally/Long Con

[Long Con]

It's really, really not.

[Hally]

gonna hard towncore when i say i aleady knew what ennui meant

drunk rn but if wigly isn't maf i'll eat a \hat

not just some baseball cap but an actual sombrero like in the wild west movies or something

the way i see it, there can't be more than two scum at present so i encourage everyone to come up with a two scum team that doesn't inclu7de= wilgy

Hally/Long Con

how is this a viable team to you

[Ash Lael]

gonna hard towncore when i say i aleady knew what ennui meant

drunk rn but if wigly isn't maf i'll eat a \hat

not just some baseball cap but an actual sombrero like in the wild west movies or something

the way i see it, there can't be more than two scum at present so i encourage everyone to come up with a two scum team that doesn't inclu7de= wilgy

Hally/Long Con

how is this a viable team to you

Because the best argument against it is “wolf Hally wouldn’t passively risk LC going down d2, she’d either push the bus for cred or forcefully try to push another wagon through instead to save him”

And that is the exact argument for why you weren’t teamed with Michelle in the champs finale.

[Long Con]

Hally led the charge against me on Day 2, but then she changed her mind. I suppose that could look like distancing - she even complained when people didn't seem to follow her off me as readily as they seemed to follow her on.

Is her progression from suspecting me to not supecting me fake?

[DrWilgy]

New pitch: A VOTE FOR HALLY SOUNDS SWEET TO ME, LET'S LYNCH SCUM AND SIP SOME TEA

[Ash Lael]

Like the finale situation with Michelle isn’t actually all that similar, really. But it did show Hally is totally capable of some very counterintuitive moves.

[Ash Lael]

Hally led the charge against me on Day 2, but then she changed her mind. I suppose that could look like distancing - she even complained when people didn't seem to follow her off me as readily as they seemed to follow her on.

Is her progression from suspecting me to not supecting me fake?

Yeah I think it is. She goes from being annoyed at people ignoring her case to “oh shit why is everyone voting with me?” And then she drops her scumread for unclear reasons but also doesn’t really object to you being an end of day wagon.

It’s less of a progression and more of a digression.

[Hally]

ok well you’re wrong lol

[Poison]

Morning. I was a bit busy yesterday, hopefully I'll be active today. But I'm goin back to sleep rn.

[Long Con]

I remember thinking Poison is lock town. Don't remember why, but I'll stand by my past self's surety.

[DrWilgy]

Hey lets remember to not tie and no lynch.

Can't move from Hally tho. Someone else vote with me.

[112]

Hey lets remember to not tie and no lynch.

Can't move from Hally tho. Someone else vote with me.

y hally?

[112]

hally prime misyeet bait

[DrWilgy]

They're scum per day ooooooone

[Arete]

it's not EoD yet

we have like 24 hours

[DrWilgy]

Lol it's Wednesday isn't it.