Grasslands [Game Thread]

[Alison]

If she's town she's literally encouraging me to try harder to kill her. If she read me as mafia that might make more sense to me, because she'd think I am an opportunist trying to gain an advantage -- so she can issue that challenge to indicate my bogus suspicions aren't compelling.

But she town reads me so

Actually I think it's pretty clear that the real message behind that post was "your case against me is bad and you're not going to succeed if you try to push it".

[Hally]

this is also exciting because like. i've been playing with LC for nearly 13 years, literally we both played the same first game and have both played relatively continuously since then, and yet i've never really felt like i could read him reliably. he's just such a wildcard that his meta is just sort of a goofy black box to me. but now i actually feel like i may have put my finger on something that could be close to a tell, at least for the style he's taken on in the last year or two.

like, i'm not sure i'm articulating what's really similar about his iso of me here and his iso of me in ziggy. but it's only sort of the content, and more kind of just that it exists. in at least my more recent experience with lc, he generally just doesn't really do this kind of thing as town. maybe in late game if he's really inspired he'll pull out a case. but this, in both of these cases specifically choosing to iso me on day 2 when I'm certainly not a popular suspect and not really being talked about, and quoting several posts and nitpicking my process like that.... it seems like he's putting in a lot of work to "come up" with a suspect. it really makes sense from a scum strategy pov and i'm pretty sure it's something i've done to look like i'm solving-- pick someone to iso and construct a case from whatever i find. i'm not saying for sure that had to have been his intention when he decided to iso me here, but i just don't think town LC generally does that kind of thing.

lc said something earlier about being likely to sheep people he trusts early game, and that's more what i associate with his town game. so why is he moving on from that already and going hunting in the iso of a widely townread player to nitpick stuff?

i think he's searching for an angle to discredit my push on sloonei the same way he tried to discredit my push on jay in ziggy. and it doesn't feel like a play i expect from town lc.

i still would like [mention]Long Con[/mention] to answer what made him choose to iso you

[Alison]

@everyone - here's a question that might not make sense but that i consider important to the gamestate right now:

how confident do you feel about your reads right now? how much faith do you have that your assessment of the gamestate is correct?

Some reads are stronger than others.

On average, let's say 65-70%. I'm reasonably confident and will have no regrets pushing my reads forward, but I'm not going to gamble my life savings on them being correct or anything.

[nutella]

I very much look forward to seeing what [mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] thinks of all this. I think the comparison is a strong one and I'm feeling incredible serendipity at the sheer happenstance that: hally mentioned LC's recent scum game offhand -> I decided to casually open up LC's 7th Saga iso -> in it he linked to his other recent scumgames including Ziggy -> I clicked on that and found the ISO of me that felt eerily similar to here

[tutuu]

@everyone - here's a question that might not make sense but that i consider important to the gamestate right now:

how confident do you feel about your reads right now? how much faith do you have that your assessment of the gamestate is correct?

About as confident my life will fall together in place one day

[Alison]

Why do you townread nanook? Who else do you townread that is receiving suspicion?

I have been town in all of my posts and I think Jay should see that. I think he does see it, to be fair, but what he’s also seeing is some slouching on my part. Champs was an exhausting experience and I signed up for this game to get back into playing mafia as a part-time rather than full-time endeavor. I don’t expect myself to appear as the shining beacon of towniness I usually am, but I should at least be a town nightlight or something.

I townread nanook because the way he dropped in and violated his "post as little as possible" rule to drop a hard townread on nova, followed by nova being killed and actually flipping town, is super town. I think Martin (more on Martin in a few posts) is probably my strongest townread that's getting attacked.

What makes you think you've been radiating towniness in all your posts when you're being scumread as widely as you are right now?

[Hally]

I'm feeling pretty okay about jay so far actually, and am inclined to listen to him re giving Sloonei more time. Switching my pseudo scum vote to carotte

Even though Sloonei has received 90% of your scumreads in the game at this point, you give up responsibility for that read to JJJ, and vote alongside him on the Carotte wagon.

------

now martin has 2 fucking votes jesus fucking christ...

i mean it doesnt matter i guess but this is pissing me off

@Hally why did u vote everyone because you single hadnedly decided spf should get the gun? what happened to the plan?

sloonei i voted for myself

i didn’t decide that. i put everyone at one vote. that is effectively like everyone having no votes. now we can all decide who should have the least. i dont get what the issue is

The issue is that by voting everyone you are removing both the weight and accountability of your own vote. If you increment everyone's votes by one then your real vote on Carotte is cancelled out. Basically you robbed yourself of a vote here in order to cancel out SPF's selfvote. Why do that? Why not just let tutuu or someone else who isn't SPF have the gun? Is tutuu or nova or whoever that much worse of a doc?

I don't care about this, Hally is clearly supportive enough of the carotte elim to claim equal credit in it.

I do agree with this, and I think this is a black mark on Alison's record. It looks like she is throwing shade for an action that looked reasonable and logical to me. Alison is normally overly logical. Her reaction doesn't sit right with me.

------

You townread Alison, and then less than an hour later, you give a hedgey analysis of her here:

so, from towniest to scummiest, i guess that leaves me at:

nutella
tutuu
hally
nova
thunal
long con
nanook
jagged
martin
alison
sloonei
carotte

eh. i don't know how good i feel about those names at the bottom - i'm going to try to focus more on townhunting than i am with scumhunting, because i think i'm better at telling when people are being genuine than i am at searching specifically for scum

feeling like we have very similar views of the game rn, I think our lists are extremely similar and I'd put you at the top in my place. I'd maybe move alison up a bit, and mayyybe hally down slightly but I've felt way better about them than I did at first, otherwise I agree with this order pretty closely.

do you townread alison at all? if so, could you help me see her as town? i dont know if im having such a hard time tring her this game because im expecting her to sound exactly like she did in radiohead mafia, but there is just something about her tone that's getting to me

eh, I don't know that I particularly townread her for any specific reason, I'm just not willing to say I scumread her either. I hate to say null but she's kinda just.... Alison so far.

...and then the next time you mention her, she's lower than Sloonei in your rainbow:

@nutella where are you at with your reads generally?

spf
tutuu
nova
thunal
jay
hally
martin
lc
nanook
sloonei
alison
carotte

ish

Lower than Sloonei, who still dwarfs your other suspicions in terms of volume. Where did this sudden Alison suspicion come from? The only explanation I can see is "I also think Thunal is town and Alison's push on her is bad, but whether it's misguidedly bad or maliciously bad remains to be determined."

How did that put Alison lower than Sloonei, who you devoted many posts to suspecting? Were you just copying SPF's list? She had the same bottom three, and when she posted it, you made a point of saying you would move Alison up a bit, but when you made a similar list a few hours later, the bottom three are identical.

Then immediately after the yeet:

oh no im not dead


oh no carot was town???


ugh


well at least im pretty dang sure sloonei is mafia

he basically lolcatted in night chat

Suddenly it's right back to Sloonei pressure. You just gave up the Sloonei pressure, which was heavy, toward the end of the day.

I found this to be a pertinent contrast as well:

fwiw i don't think it'll be super fruitful to analyze nova's reads since i think he was a good kill choice precisely because his reads weren't very developed and yet he was a pretty universal townread. that's pretty much an optimal kill target -- someone who is commonly accepted as town, but who didn't actually provide a ton of content for us to delve in and analyze as motivation/spew.

why does scum!sloonei shoot nova? that strikes me as a bad kill for sloonei to make because nova was one of the few people town reading sloonei and he also scum read alison iirc, the person sloonei is now pushing. so if sloonei is mafia, he made his life harder by killing nova over someone like nut who is pushing him way more and was just as town read N1

For someone who's so keen on Sloonei pressure, the disparity between your and Hally's opinion on the nova kill is notable. It looks like you either don't want to give up your tunnel on Sloonei, or you are more focused on presenting a suspicious-of-Sloonei front, and not really trying to make all the balanced analyses, just the ones that bolster your agenda.

Back to attacking Sloonei, in the next post. I used my quote instead of yours because you never responded to my question. This is actually the exact point that I decided to look more closely at your posts - you hadn't had much attention yet compared to other players, and this post pinged me.

I am exaggerating a bit when I say sloonei was lolcatting, but he really did not post any serious content and seemed completely flippant about the night vote. He really felt detached in the way a deflated scum would.

Why would he be deflated? Town was yeeted.

Because he knew carotte's flip would cement him as the next priority suspect? I feel like that's pretty obvious

Why can't it be town-town, what is it about Sloonei-Carotte that one of them has to be a wolf?

I still don't get why it's obvious.

Ok, I'm going to bed. At this point, nutella is a good suspect. I want to run Sloonei's ISO against nutella to see what it looks like from that perspective, but nutella's treatment of Sloonei is worthy of scrutiny.

There's a final page of nutella's ISO yet to read.

i was slightly pinged by the bold red line because it does sorta give the feel that lc just wanted to find someone to suspect as opposed to having a scum read that developed naturally. i can see how his iso on nut could be “im going to go into this iso and find reasons to scum read nut” and then picking out things that fit that conclusion as opposed to going in with a blank slate. particularly because all of this is decidedly negative. is there nothing in nut’s iso that lc likes?

yea, lc can be mafia

[Alison]

General prompt:

Imagine the collective POE pool is exhausted and the game is alive. Which one of these people, or more than one, gets your attention first?

nutella
Hally
tutuu
SPF
Thunal
Jay

If one of them is already a suspect (e.g. Alison on Thunal), ignore that player and pick a current town read.

I can't answer this question. It would depend too much on context - who was killed, how the voting patterns went, that kind of thing.

If we assume Thunal/LC/Sloonei are all modkilled right now and all three of them flipped green, I would probably look at Jay and Hally.

[nutella]

i was slightly pinged by the bold red line because it does sorta give the feel that lc just wanted to find someone to suspect as opposed to having a scum read that developed naturally. i can see how his iso on nut could be “im going to go into this iso and find reasons to scum read nut” and then picking out things that fit that conclusion as opposed to going in with a blank slate. particularly because all of this is decidedly negative. is there nothing in nut’s iso that lc likes?

precisely.

per your last line, there's yet another connection with the ziggy iso -- he did the same thing in both of quoting a joke/meme post i made and saying he liked it/found it funny, obviously in an off topic way (here it was the hazelnut joke, in ziggy it was the awoo meme). lc is a jokester and it fits his personality to comment on humorous things, but the inclusion of those among a sea of negative commentary almost seems like a tonal appeasement/softening of the blow of dropping a multiquote case. again it's just eerily similar

[tutuu]

I do need to hear more from tutuu today, I'm still sort of uneasy about her and sense deepwolf potential there

Im overwhelmed by the huge walls sorry (dont change urselves for me im just saying hows it on my end)

[Hally]

i would like everyone to take a stance on the lc post i just quoted and nut’s case against him please

i’m seriously considering eliminating him this day

[Alison]

Why is martin a suspect? Give me the short version of the case.

the main point against him i think is his post where he votes alison for what appears to be dubious reasoning at best and a “info chop” at worst. there’s other things too discussed in the last couple of pages, but that’s the main thing i think

I think the kind of player Martin is - logical, by-the-book, tries to deconstruct things, focuses more on analysis over forming connections to other players - is a lot more likely to go for info exes as town than average. Independently, newer players are also more likely to go for pure info exes because the game is confusing to them and they don't have the experience to understand why info exes are usually bad. I will say this in Martin's defense, that the way he's gone about pushing me is 100% within the town range of Alison from 2009/2010 or whatever (ie. me when I was still new to mafia).

[Hally]

[VOTE: lc] aubergine

[tutuu]

I can read one hundred one liner posts in a row and memorize each one but i cant even read a single time a post made out if a hundred lines its a neurological thing i bet. If this game had more people like macdougall and JPIC and stuff i could be more on top of things

[Alison]

im becoming increasingly less confident sloonei is mafia, which is saying something because i was never really that confident

but im also not confident alison is mafia at all

for most of this day i’ve been telling myself one of them “had to be mafia”

how likely is it that this isn’t the case? what does a world where sloonei and alison are both town look like?

What has Sloonei done in recent pages that's so townie? I might be confbiased but I'm really not seeing it.

[nutella]

kinda funny/sad that i had that huge revelation literally the moment LC went to bed. too bad he didn't get to react to it in real time

[nutella]

watch me be wrong and this is just like lolspecchat!nutella preaching about how spf was definitely wolf in finale because "it all fits" lmao

[Hally]

im becoming increasingly less confident sloonei is mafia, which is saying something because i was never really that confident

but im also not confident alison is mafia at all

for most of this day i’ve been telling myself one of them “had to be mafia”

how likely is it that this isn’t the case? what does a world where sloonei and alison are both town look like?

What has Sloonei done in recent pages that's so townie? I might be confbiased but I'm really not seeing it.

he just sounds genuine to me. also i checked a couple of his scum games and feel he’s pretty different. caveat that those were scum games where he was caught early but they don’t look like this game. im waiting on him to link scum games he played better in

[nutella]

on the inside im special agent dale cooper realizing the truth but on the outside im the pepe silvia meme with crazy red thread everywhere

[nutella]

and the actual real truth is that sheppard took over my account

[Alison]

I'm caught up. I saw the case on LC. It makes sense; and the tryhard way he went after nutella does feel out-of-place compared to his chill entrance, and sort of feels like the way he played 7th Saga as well. I agree with the points nutella is making and doubly so now that I am strongly townreading her and know her read on LC is in good faith. The way she went after LC today sort of reminds me of when she went after Marcher in Avatar - obviously 1 game sample size isn't great but I do think it's generally indicative that she has really good reason to believe someone is scum.

I'm happy to support an LC exe today - Sloonei/Thunal/LC are all players I'm comfortable with eliminating at this point and would be extremely unsurprised if there was 2 mafia in there.

[Alison]

watch me be wrong and this is just like lolspecchat!nutella preaching about how spf was definitely wolf in finale because "it all fits" lmao

I just remembered that. I'm tempering my confidence on your read down a little bit, but your case still makes sense and you're a good scum player who has years of experience with LC. I'm extremely fine with sheeping here.

Also I'm upgrading Hally to just town now, I think my doubts about Hally have mostly been quelled and they've produced some really good posts this phase.

[tutuu]

Sure i guess i dont mind if u guys wanna kill LC

[tutuu]

I have a confession: aside from getting myself townread im not very good at mafia (im sure many of you will be shocked to hear this)

[nutella]

watch me be wrong and this is just like lolspecchat!nutella preaching about how spf was definitely wolf in finale because "it all fits" lmao

I just remembered that. I'm tempering my confidence on your read down a little bit, but your case still makes sense and you're a good scum player who has years of experience with LC. I'm extremely fine with sheeping here.

Also I'm upgrading Hally to just town now, I think my doubts about Hally have mostly been quelled and they've produced some really good posts this phase.

lol but you bringing up the marcher read made me feel better because i do think that when i have super high confidence reads like this when i'm actually in a game i have a decent record of them just being right as opposed to in spec chat (but i have of course had them be wrong in games sometimes too)

[nutella]

hhhhhhh site is fuckin up

[tutuu]

If somebody pats my head i will read every single wall post and write 20 wall posts myself and catch all 3 members of the mafia

[Alison]

Martin's posts that I think are really good - I would hesitate to call it a flat out mindmeld since I don't actually agree with every word he says in these posts, but I can relate to the thought process enough or have thought similar things myself that I am fairly certain it comes from town.

#18, #30, #94, #644, #800, #1225, #1280

I'm not going to waste time typing up a huge wall of text about why every single Martin post I quoted is town indicative. I just want to highlight a particular post - I think that #644 is super townie for Martin's playstyle specifically. proto did the exact same shit where he would agree with a scumread on him and then overanalyze his own play and end up concluding that there were aspects of his play that were definitely scummy and that a townie should probably vote him here, and then reverse stance and explain why he's town anyway. Generally I think this kind of overthinking your own play is endemic to this playstyle in general, but sharing it in thread rather than keeping it to yourself (or putting it in the scum chat) is >>rand town. #94, where he ponders the nuances of information control to stop himself from being manipulated as scum, is also >>rand town.

I also think making a huge case on nova and then nightkilling him makes very little sense in Martin's position. I also think #800 expresses his genuine thoughts about the nightkill (kill the most unpredictable player, and I definitely have done that a lot as scum) and that as such he would push for tutuu, not nova, to be exed if he was mafia.

Anyway that's my town case on Martin. All of these reads + a hefty dose of gut/soul reading him as being super pure and transparent and I think it's easy to see why I have him as lock town.

[Alison]

he would push for tutuu, not nova, to be exed if he was mafia.

This should read "he would push for tutuu, not nova, to be nightkilled". He's pushed for both of them to be executed, so the distinction is important.

[nutella]

saturdays are for sleeping in and I'm even going to bed later than usual so don't expect me back until like 2h before eod at the earliest prob. hope I won't be too overwhelmed with posts lol

anyway I'm happy with chopping sloonei or lc at this point, and prob still sending spf as the town

[Alison]

I kinda want to send nut as the town this phase. I want her to live to Day 3.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was hoping for some insight. You sound very sure, so I thought you'd have some fresh reasons in mind.

the way she makes reads as mafia is totally different. i don’t know how to explain it better than that but i’m pretty confident i would have caught her immediately in that game. she just did not look like town!nut

FTL is a bad example, because nobody (yes, nobody) played hard and looked like town. So she could coast. Potentially better examples:

Vanilla Mafia (heist)
Mafia Season 6 scrimmage (sit down)
Take Me Out to the Ballgame (heist)

Would link but can’t easily right now on phone

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I do like the energy pouring from nutella’s new suspicion of Long Con. Looks geneuine.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I should’ve retired after take me out at the ballgame tbh

[JaggedJimmyJay]

nutella asked for my take on the meta parallels she sees to mafia Long Con:

While I don’t experience the same fervor she displayed, I think her observations are valid. Apart from meta I think there’s plenty of room for LC’s post history to come from mafia anyway.

[tutuu]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Hally[/mention] I’m not sure exactly what your post cap is today, but I think you’re close so take care.

I have 5 more

[Thunal33]

BUN TO HEAD GO

MARTINGG99
NUTELLA
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

town
town
town

HALLY
TUTUU
SLOONEI
ALISON

mafia
town
town
mafia

STAYPOSITIVEFRIEND
JAGGEDJIMMYJAY
THUNAL33
LONG CON

town
town
cat
mafia

[Thunal33]

page 26

i’m not following you here. you think scum wouldn’t have wanted to change the consensus last day but yet you tr sloonei because he followed the consensus and scum wouldn’t do that. like, how can it be both that scum would do X AND also that it’s twtbaw to do X so they would avoid doing it? this argument just doesn’t move me

I was thinking that because Sloonei was the next person in the PoE. As the next person in the PoE scum!Sloonei and his scummates wouldn't be happy with the consensus. However, if Sloonei was town and scum knew they were heading towards a mislim on Carotte that set the groundwork for another mislim on Sloonei they would be quite happy with the consensus.

but thun, look what’s happening this day. we’re trending towards an alison elimination, not a sloonei elimination. or at least, it will probably be a close vote. so the consensus has shifted in a way that is favorable to sloonei, and he’s clearly had a hand in that by hard pushing alison. how does this jive with your argument? like, you say scum would be happy with the consensus D1 if sloonei was town because carotte’s elimination would lead to sloonei’s elimination. but it’s pretty obvious that we aren’t just sleepwalking into eliminating sloonei this day. it could be alison, who was not a consensus top suspect for most of D1. doesn’t that invalidate your argument? because what you think the wolves would want if sloonei was town (i.e. a sloonei elimination) is increasingly less likely to happen? why can’t that shift in consensus be scum motivated to benefit scum!sloonei?

Okay, the consensus has changed. I see that change as being favorable and driven by town (such as JJJ, Martin). I still feel like Sloonei risked unnecessary suspicion with the way he approached the Carotte elim and he doesn't have the defensiveness I would expect from someone who takes pride in his scum game. He basically did a 180 from his early D1 play where he was frustrated by suspicion and now he's solving despite having suspicion on him yet not completely ignoring it either.

why do you keep poking holes in people’s accusations of him if you don’t even tr him? i know we had this back and forth already D1 when you defended him but i feel like your exchange with alison is the same kind of thing. you keep saying you don’t tr him yet you seem to like batting away accusations thrown at him. it’s just... kinda weird. like, you clearly have your own reservations with sloonei, so why does such a significant portion of what you talk about when it comes to him seem to be defending him rather than elaborating on your own concerns with him? you seem like you don’t actually want to suspect him

Poking holes can have at least two purposes: pro-Sloonei purposes, and anti-Sloonei accuser purposes. When I griped at Alison, my motivation was suspicion of her. Regardless of my struggle to clear Sloonei, if I feel Alison has made bogus assertions about him then my priority is to express that -- because it reflects badly on her. It's the sort of thing that is often wrongly turned into "chainsaw defense" accusations.

I literally think there is not a good case against Sloonei in this game. I think there have been numerous accusations hurled at him that are poorly-conceived. I thought Alison's was outright in bad faith, so I accused her of that. That's why I am so frustrated about it. Because "a lack of a good case" is not the same thing as "Sloonei is town", and I would vastly prefer to be able to just say the latter. The best I can give you is that his posts don't fill me with that good fuzzy feeling that I would expect them to fill me with. I realize that's vague, but sometimes that's just the way it is. They're not bad posts. They're just posts. It's kind of driving me nuts. I can't tell if he is lacking something that matters per his alignment, or if he is too fatigued of the game to be Sloonei.

I am accustomed to people being suspicious of Sloonei for bad reasons. He has dealt with that pretty much his entire Mafia "career", and usually I am the one tasked with setting the record straight. Most of the time though that is accompanied by Sloonei also doing things that I can concretely call "civilian Sloonei". In this game I am seeing the same kinds of suspicions that I think misunderstand (if I am generous) Sloonei, but I am not consistently seeing the congruent town in him. He hovers in this infuriating beige space and won't get out of it. It's very difficult for me to reconcile both sides of that -- thinking suspicions he has faced are bad suspicions while also failing to give a confident town read on my own.

okay. this actually does make sense and is a good answer. i’m struggling with the same thing. his posts aren’t bad but they’re also not good, and i’m similarly left wondering if that’s AI or just due to him being worn out

your point that people are often suspicious of him for bad reasons is valid but doesn’t really resonate with me personally because when we were town together in SF3 i was never suspicious of him. i think he did get suspicion thrown at him early on that game but i could never make myself see him as anything but a villager and he remained my strongest tr along with spf right up to the end. i felt similarly about him in the finals, though i obviously had the benefit of tmi that game. but even still, none if the accusations levied at him throughout the game ever made any sense to me. he seemed unimpeachably towny to me and i think it’s because he has a process that i do resonate with. in sf3 he remarked that he felt he saw the game through the same lens as me and i felt that too. this game it hasn’t clicked like that yet for me. i still feel something is missing

anyway, thank you for the response. it’s helpful

This part actually does look a little towny from Hally, but this post as a whole made me more suspicious of them overall for reasons I'll get into at the end of this post. Hally's listening to JJJ but I think that might be because they think JJJ would pick up on if Hally wasn't listening since they were in finals together.

I read through Alison's ISO, and I spent awhile thinking about it.

There are posts in there that I liked, but most of those have been early game. A lot of their posts though, I've been feeling neither too particularly towny or scummy.

However, I get the feeling that if Alison does have a playstyle or thought process very similar to me then if she's scum....all she's doing just making points and that's it.

Or something. I'm not entirely sure. I haven't read any of their scum games.

Either way, I wouldn't feel too comfortable going forward if it wasn't Alison that was executed next. I just need to know if they're town or mafia.

[VOTE: MartinGG99] aubergine (Because I'm not going to be the doc save lol, and even if town agreed with me getting it I would think you all are insane)

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine


I mean, think about it. If she's scum and her plan is to discredit (or scum-paint) as much people as possible (like Thunal, Sloonei, JJJ, etc at times) then she's done a decent or good job of it at times. Like trying to prevent some sort of town-core from forming.

And while I can completely understand if she's town, I think if she's scum it may be too dangerous to leave her alive beyond D2. As to whether she has spewed or anti-spewed if scum, I'm not sure but I think she would've made it difficult to know.

i don’t follow this at all. it sounds like you’re more just saying you want to eliminate her for information/because it will help you going forward to know her alignment. but why is she mafia? also your point that she’s gone after a lot of people isn’t really true. she’s really only ever hard pushed thun and sloonei. she clearly is not trying to scum read as many people as possible. and what do you mean, “all she’s doing is making points”? what is bad about that?

this whole post is very confusing. i have no idea what you’re trying to say

Sure, there's a line of questioning here but it's sprinked with "your points don't make sense and are confusing." The questions are more to poke holes in the argument than actual open minded or solving questions. This is suspicious from Hally, more on that later.

I read through Alison's ISO, and I spent awhile thinking about it.

There are posts in there that I liked, but most of those have been early game. A lot of their posts though, I've been feeling neither too particularly towny or scummy.

However, I get the feeling that if Alison does have a playstyle or thought process very similar to me then if she's scum....all she's doing just making points and that's it.

Or something. I'm not entirely sure. I haven't read any of their scum games.

Either way, I wouldn't feel too comfortable going forward if it wasn't Alison that was executed next. I just need to know if they're town or mafia.

[VOTE: MartinGG99] aubergine (Because I'm not going to be the doc save lol, and even if town agreed with me getting it I would think you all are insane)

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine


I mean, think about it. If she's scum and her plan is to discredit (or scum-paint) as much people as possible (like Thunal, Sloonei, JJJ, etc at times) then she's done a decent or good job of it at times. Like trying to prevent some sort of town-core from forming.

And while I can completely understand if she's town, I think if she's scum it may be too dangerous to leave her alive beyond D2. As to whether she has spewed or anti-spewed if scum, I'm not sure but I think she would've made it difficult to know.

That makes some sense - I was struggling to reason what the benefit would be to scum!Alison to keep pushing me this much. She didn't push me anywhere near this much when I was wolf and she was SK. But wanting to keep me and Sloonei out of the towncore would be beneficial if she was scum (especially if Sloonei is town).

how does that make sense? alison has suspects. her suspects are you and sloonei. why is her having two suspects scummy? like, obviously regardless of her alignment she doesn’t want her suspects to be in the town core. that’s the literal definition of a suspect. how is it any different from you or anyone else who has suspects? couldn’t you say that sloonei is trying to keep alison out of the town core by suspecting her? or you are? or jay is? because that makes as much sense to me as what you say here (read: zero)

like, i think you’re confbiasing to fit what you want your reads to be. this argument that martin is making about why alison is scum is not good. your argument about why sloonei is town is not good. they just aren’t valid arguments. that doesn’t mean the reads are wrong necessarily but please try to consider if the arguments themselves actually make any sense

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When I consider universes where Alison is town, process of elimination leads me to some uninspired places, where I feel like I have to default to the most generic suspicions like Long Con and/or Nanook.

I hope in the future at some point you will realize I had vaguely the same feeling or realization.

Especially since I have to count myself as a miselimination in most people's PoE's. I just don't think there were many wolves in the D1 PoE's...they would all have to playing a bit similarly which goes against the idea that they would be distancing a bit. Especially since Carotenoid was town and one of my D1 tinfoils (Nova) was night-killed. It just looks all...."wrong" to me or something. This isn't to say there isn't a single wolf in the generic suspicions, just maybe at most 1 or 2.

Which is partially why I've been looking/tinfoiling outside of the current conflicts.

I feel the same way. I got a strong sense that wolves were happy with the D1 consensus since nobody tried to change it. Hally, tutuu, and maybe even Nutella might be deepwolves at this point (I mostly townread Nutella based on mindmelds/having the same takes but that's not strongly town indicative). This is also one of the reasons why I think Sloonei is more likely town than not at this point.

gth, who do you think is the most likely to be "deep scum" in the names that u listed in this post? i find it curious that youre throwing out names of universally tr players that you suspect could have a mafia, but i dont particularly see you exploring today to figure out which one of them could be scum

I feel like eliminating in the non universally TRed people is more strategic for today since it gives more info - and I don't think I could successfully case and push for an elim on any of the players I mentioned since my reasons to suspect them are admittedly thin. It's more "could be scum" and for Hally, it's "not out of their scum range." Hally is the most likely out of the three names I have since they have some small things in their play I found suspicious - their complete 180 on Carotte when they got to the grasslands, even though well explained, I could easily see scum motivation for. They're not posting the same way I'm used to seeing from them, meaning that they're not posting as much and they're not as pushy as I've seen them as either alignment. They're blending in which I find unusual for them but it could be because they have less time to play because of their job. Also they didn't pay attention to my deepwolf suspicion on them which I feel scum!Hally is more likely to do than town!Hally. Hally I have some reasons for. Tutuu and Nutella are more "I don't TR them as strongly as the other townread people."

what is the scum motivation for 180ing on carotte? like, actually. what did that get me if im mafia?

also i don’t really feel im blending in. im posting what i can with the time i have. i thought i was quite pushy with carotte and she ended up being town. now it’s harder to find concrete scum reads. also your point about my number of posts is kinda silly. most of my posts are multiquote catch ups so that i can be sure i save posts for real timing. if you were to break up my multiquotes into individual posts, my post count would be higher. would that make me more likely town? like, why does this matter to you?

also the reason why i haven’t addressed your tinfoil on me is because there’s nothing to address. atm it’s just “hally isn’t out of their scum range.” that’s not a substantive suspicion that i can respond to. i did respond in detail to your point about my 180 on carotte though, so it’s wrong to say i’ve ignored your suspicion on me. everything else has just been paranoia that’s not grounded in anything other than your fear of my scum game. it’s the same thing every game and i’m more than used to it by now, so it’s not something i actually care about, sorry[/quote]
I've read this post and at this point I can only see scum!Hally making it. My tinfoil deepwolf suspicion has turned into very real suspicion. The blue is a clear attempt to discredit me. I've townread Hally in nearly all the games I've played with them. This isn't even close to being true.

And now we come to the main reason I really suspect Hally right now: They're not listening! Finals Hally literally admitted to shutting down Dya's arguments when they would definitely have listened to Dya as town. I've played a lot of games with Hally. We have quite a bit of history and they usually value my opinion a great deal. Even when I was a flipped wolf in Bastard Fiesta town!Hally took my suspects into consideration to try to find the 3p. As town Hally doesn't take one of their top townreads and say "your arguments make no sense" and "I completely disagree" to everything I'm saying. They would care about my input more than this. They're shutting down Martin too. This is a very good reenactment of what Hally did in finals and nothing like what town!Hally's process is. Oh, and this only makes me more confident that Sloonei is town and Alison is scum because my reads aren't convenient to scum!Hally right now.

[Alison]

Can we like exe Thunal right now? I really want to.

[VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

[Thunal33]

@Sloonei what is lc’s alignment?

same question to @Long Con actually - sloonei is [fill in the blank]

Sloonei is mafia. In the early game, as I said, I don't have a strong grasp on why people are Town reading or scum reading others, a lot of the time. As a result, my reads in the early game are often informed by players who excel in the early game. Sloonei is a name I've seen brought up probably more than anyone else as scum, to the point that it was said Carotte being town locks Sloonei as scum.

I would much rather give an answer after I have looked over his posts, which I can do when I'm done with Nutella.

im confused. he’s mafia because people say so? but what do you think? you can answer after you look into his posts if you don’t know

Hally asks a lot of questions like this. It looks like they're listening but they don't follow up and these questions are somewhat pointed.

Why is martin a suspect? Give me the short version of the case.

the main point against him i think is his post where he votes alison for what appears to be dubious reasoning at best and a “info chop” at worst. there’s other things too discussed in the last couple of pages, but that’s the main thing i think

I genuinely don't see town!Hally suspecting Martin here. Martin is one of the easier mischops in the game and he's been really feeling like town all game. Also Hally's been shutting down Martin's arguments on Alison and they essentially sent a challenge to Martin "please, tell me in detail why Sloonei is town" that looks like listening but isn't.

@Sloonei whats your read on nut? how likely do you think it is she’s a deep wolf?

@JaggedJimmyJay can answer too

Huh, so they listen to the people from finals that are more likely to call them out for not listening, but don't listen to many others.

[Thunal33]

[VOTE: Hally] aubergine

I don't think I'm ever going to want to change this.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Can we like exe Thunal right now? I really want to.

[VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

Did something in Thunal’s recent posts push you to this point?

[Alison]

Can we like exe Thunal right now? I really want to.

[VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

Did something in Thunal’s recent posts push you to this point?

I didn't like #1539. It was a very long post that tried to push a specific narrative I think is very wrong. The timing of it is really bad too. Like it was right after two things happened:

1) LC wagon started to gain serious traction.
2) Hally (and the rest of the thread) started suspecting me less.

That's pretty suspicious timing, needless to say I disagree with the contents of the post, and I already had a decently strong scumread on Thunal prior. I want to kill her.

[Thunal33]

This is simply not how town!Hally acts towards me. Even when they suspected me (correctly) in Bastard Fiesta they still asked me questions that were open minded (not pointed), valued my opinion, and reevaluated their read on me multiple times. They care about my opinion even more when they townread me and certainly wouldn't shut down all my arguments without taking any of them into consideration.

[Alison]

Like I thought Hally's recent posts were pretty good and Thunal comes in and calls them naked scum for making those posts. Admittedly both of us are confbiased probably because it serves our interests to view those posts in that manner, but I really do think Thunal was twisting and distorting Hally's posts there to suit her narrative. Also the view that scum!Hally doesn't listen and town!Hally does is pretty much bullshit, in Philosopher's Mafia (where they were town) they pushed forward with their view of the game and didn't rely as much on other people's reasoning, and in LGBT Mafia (where they were scum) they literally sat there begging townies to give them good takes and show them how townie they (the townies) are.

linki: Can any other person corroborate this claim that Hally not listening to people is a scumtell? Because that is just super wrong in my experience.

[Thunal33]

how does that make sense? alison has suspects. her suspects are you and sloonei. why is her having two suspects scummy? like, obviously regardless of her alignment she doesn’t want her suspects to be in the town core. that’s the literal definition of a suspect. how is it any different from you or anyone else who has suspects? couldn’t you say that sloonei is trying to keep alison out of the town core by suspecting her? or you are? or jay is? because that makes as much sense to me as what you say here (read: zero)

like, i think you’re confbiasing to fit what you want your reads to be. this argument that martin is making about why alison is scum is not good. your argument about why sloonei is town is not good. they just aren’t valid arguments. that doesn’t mean the reads are wrong necessarily but please try to consider if the arguments themselves actually make any sense

Messed up the quote there. This isn't how town!Hally acts towards me or even Martin.

Can we like exe Thunal right now? I really want to.

[VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

Did something in Thunal’s recent posts push you to this point?

I didn't like #1539. It was a very long post that tried to push a specific narrative I think is very wrong. The timing of it is really bad too. Like it was right after two things happened:

1) LC wagon started to gain serious traction.
2) Hally (and the rest of the thread) started suspecting me less.

That's pretty suspicious timing, needless to say I disagree with the contents of the post, and I already had a decently strong scumread on Thunal prior. I want to kill her.

Chainsaw defense?

[Alison]

Ah yes, Alison attacking Thunal is definitely chainsaw defending Hally. It's not like she's been hard attacking Thunal since D1 or anything.

[Thunal33]

Like I thought Hally's recent posts were pretty good and Thunal comes in and calls them naked scum for making those posts. Admittedly both of us are confbiased probably because it serves our interests to view those posts in that manner, but I really do think Thunal was twisting and distorting Hally's posts there to suit her narrative. Also the view that scum!Hally doesn't listen and town!Hally does is pretty much bullshit, in Philosopher's Mafia (where they were town) they pushed forward with their view of the game and didn't rely as much on other people's reasoning, and in LGBT Mafia (where they were scum) they literally sat there begging townies to give them good takes and show them how townie they (the townies) are.

linki: Can any other person corroborate this claim that Hally not listening to people is a scumtell? Because that is just super wrong in my experience.

Hally listens to people as scum when their view doesn't threaten the position of the scum team. This is also a tell on a personal level since I know Hally almost always listens to me especially when they townread me. Hally can and does tunnel as town and sometimes stops listening to people they suspect for awhile but often changes their tune and starts listening even to people they suspect and reevaluating. I've played more games with Hally than anyone else here has. Also, I'm not confbiased on Hally. I townread them all through D1 and a little bit through D2.

[Thunal33]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine