I think SoA is much more suspicious than falcon. I think you're closer to falcon than SoA is.ilario wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:24 pmHe’s been trending down and downJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:18 pm @ilario just for the log, is Son of Anarch still a town read?
But that’s mostly because others are trending up and not so much due to the fact that he has done anything I find to be scummy
I think falcons reasoning for all his votes, like his recent vote on gman are all incredibly shallow and in a world where falcon is scum I feel better about soa
Fleabag Mafia mafia win
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:51 pmYou might want to try to get them to explain why they aren't adopting your PoE (and mine - as they are more or less the same for this purpose).JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:18 pm @ilario just for the log, is Son of Anarch still a town read?
If they adopt it, then they have to re-evaluate their world, which they refuse to do on the basis that my PoE is garbage, which I assume means yours is as well.
I have considered all of jjjs reads this game lol and he’s the major reason why I doubted my stance on soa
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Do ilario and falcon45ca fit together as mafia teammates?
From ilario
This analysis might not be especially necessary, as it seems apparent by game state that these two don't fit. Nonetheless here are the posts for reference. The separation does begin early, as I don't figure "cute and cuddly" as an accusation is the first of falcon's distancing moves.
Nothing else ilario says here makes me think they're an especially good fit. I'll cut this one off here and move forward.
From ilario
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This analysis might not be especially necessary, as it seems apparent by game state that these two don't fit. Nonetheless here are the posts for reference. The separation does begin early, as I don't figure "cute and cuddly" as an accusation is the first of falcon's distancing moves.
Nothing else ilario says here makes me think they're an especially good fit. I'll cut this one off here and move forward.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
If your team is Dolby, G-Man, SoA, ilario, do you know at the moment who you'd name as the 5th member of the full POE pool?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:16 pmYeah, I mostly see falcon SoA as incompatible. I need to review why maybe, but it was a confident read.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:04 pm @NotAnAxehole I know you weren't sold on falcon being mafia, and I am not entirely sold either. Are you mostly inclined to insert ilario in his place, or is there more to your current view?
Ilario in that slot makes a lot of sense.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Do ilario and G-Man fit together as mafia teammates?
From ilario
Most of the meaningful development in ilario's G-Man read has occurred during this day phase, so it's difficult to do much with that. Prior, ilario maintained a general suspicion on G-Man in most cases except for the single "dumb-tell" assertion on Day 2. I find this stuff kind of non-descript and not "bad". It's hard to draw a lot of confidence from it.
From G-Man
There's some interesting stuff here. I highlighted in yellow a section that I think might be a decent signal that they're not mafia teammates. G-Man was theorizing with some degree of complexity about Lime Coke as a mafioso (possibly teamed with falcon), and a significant portion of G-Man's theory was contingent on the idea that Lime Coke wanted to force a mischop on ilario. If G-Man is mafia, this could be a TMI moment. There are a lot of moving pieces there, so I will temper that assertion.
G-Man's view of ilario this day phase is "75% null" in a thick pair of paragraphs that waffles around the circuit once over and seems to conclude with some sort of "suspicion". Given how recent this content is, I hesitate to make too many assumptions.
~~~
Do they fit?
This one is hard for me to interpret. If you ask me for a gun-to-head take, I would say they're not both mafia. I don't feel a lot of confidence in saying so. They're a "yellow" on the chart.
From ilario
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Most of the meaningful development in ilario's G-Man read has occurred during this day phase, so it's difficult to do much with that. Prior, ilario maintained a general suspicion on G-Man in most cases except for the single "dumb-tell" assertion on Day 2. I find this stuff kind of non-descript and not "bad". It's hard to draw a lot of confidence from it.
From G-Man
Spoiler: show
There's some interesting stuff here. I highlighted in yellow a section that I think might be a decent signal that they're not mafia teammates. G-Man was theorizing with some degree of complexity about Lime Coke as a mafioso (possibly teamed with falcon), and a significant portion of G-Man's theory was contingent on the idea that Lime Coke wanted to force a mischop on ilario. If G-Man is mafia, this could be a TMI moment. There are a lot of moving pieces there, so I will temper that assertion.
G-Man's view of ilario this day phase is "75% null" in a thick pair of paragraphs that waffles around the circuit once over and seems to conclude with some sort of "suspicion". Given how recent this content is, I hesitate to make too many assumptions.
~~~
Do they fit?
This one is hard for me to interpret. If you ask me for a gun-to-head take, I would say they're not both mafia. I don't feel a lot of confidence in saying so. They're a "yellow" on the chart.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Do ilario and Son of Anarch fit together as mafia teammates?
From ilario
This is not entirely in chronological order, as per page the "soa" and "anarch" searches are split. Clearly there is a lot here, and it all follows a pretty clear trend that doesn't really need reviews. ilario has town read SoA constantly and strongly. That on its own isn't necessarily indicative of "compatibility", so I will ask myself some questions.
1) Are there any moments that look indicative of TMI instead, in an ilario-mafia universe? -- maybe a few, particularly those where ilario is speaking directly to SoA rather than about him.
2) Do I think there's sufficient justification for the strong town read? -- no, not at all. That's the premier concern. At every juncture of this read, it is voiced with more confidence than I believe is justified. It also persists well longer than I believe is justified. It tests my ability to give any benefit of the doubt, and instead I almost feel like buying the read as non-compatible requires suspension of disbelief. That's concerning.
From Son of Anarch
The strong town read is reciprocated and never really reassessed (SoA hasn't reassessed much of anything since Day 1). I do think isolated moments here again could be okay, and again it's when SoA is speaking directly to ilario instead of about ilario. Those tend to look more like pocket efforts in an SoA-mafia universe. Nonetheless, the connection between these two players is constant and irrefutable, and unique enough just for its strength in the absence of clear development. It sprung from the ether.
~~~
Do they fit?
This is perhaps the toughest judgment call of all. If they're mafia teammates, they've dedicated more mutual effort to shielding each other than I would expect to see in most games. My trouble is that it would also represent my exact preferred strategy if I rolled mafia in an 11 vs. 4. If ilario had begun to reassess this a cycle sooner as Dizzy did I would be more comfortable. I am calling them compatible, at least "yellow".
From ilario
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This is not entirely in chronological order, as per page the "soa" and "anarch" searches are split. Clearly there is a lot here, and it all follows a pretty clear trend that doesn't really need reviews. ilario has town read SoA constantly and strongly. That on its own isn't necessarily indicative of "compatibility", so I will ask myself some questions.
1) Are there any moments that look indicative of TMI instead, in an ilario-mafia universe? -- maybe a few, particularly those where ilario is speaking directly to SoA rather than about him.
2) Do I think there's sufficient justification for the strong town read? -- no, not at all. That's the premier concern. At every juncture of this read, it is voiced with more confidence than I believe is justified. It also persists well longer than I believe is justified. It tests my ability to give any benefit of the doubt, and instead I almost feel like buying the read as non-compatible requires suspension of disbelief. That's concerning.
From Son of Anarch
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The strong town read is reciprocated and never really reassessed (SoA hasn't reassessed much of anything since Day 1). I do think isolated moments here again could be okay, and again it's when SoA is speaking directly to ilario instead of about ilario. Those tend to look more like pocket efforts in an SoA-mafia universe. Nonetheless, the connection between these two players is constant and irrefutable, and unique enough just for its strength in the absence of clear development. It sprung from the ether.
~~~
Do they fit?
This is perhaps the toughest judgment call of all. If they're mafia teammates, they've dedicated more mutual effort to shielding each other than I would expect to see in most games. My trouble is that it would also represent my exact preferred strategy if I rolled mafia in an 11 vs. 4. If ilario had begun to reassess this a cycle sooner as Dizzy did I would be more comfortable. I am calling them compatible, at least "yellow".
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Just so we're clear, you still think my PoE is terrible though, yes?ilario wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:25 pmNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:51 pmYou might want to try to get them to explain why they aren't adopting your PoE (and mine - as they are more or less the same for this purpose).JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:18 pm @ilario just for the log, is Son of Anarch still a town read?
If they adopt it, then they have to re-evaluate their world, which they refuse to do on the basis that my PoE is garbage, which I assume means yours is as well.
I have considered all of jjjs reads this game lol and he’s the major reason why I doubted my stance on soa
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
I slotted Johanna in there but to be honest I haven't really looked at her ISO because the spoil tags just make it impossible without an amount of effort that I'm unwilling to invest.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:38 pmIf your team is Dolby, G-Man, SoA, ilario, do you know at the moment who you'd name as the 5th member of the full POE pool?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:16 pmYeah, I mostly see falcon SoA as incompatible. I need to review why maybe, but it was a confident read.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:04 pm @NotAnAxehole I know you weren't sold on falcon being mafia, and I am not entirely sold either. Are you mostly inclined to insert ilario in his place, or is there more to your current view?
Ilario in that slot makes a lot of sense.
If you tell me she's green, then I have to consider my other reads and figure out which associative reads are weaker than I might have initially thought.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
I dismissed it the moment you refused to engage with me the reasoning of your readsNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:21 amJust so we're clear, you still think my PoE is terrible though, yes?ilario wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:25 pmNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:51 pmYou might want to try to get them to explain why they aren't adopting your PoE (and mine - as they are more or less the same for this purpose).JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:18 pm @ilario just for the log, is Son of Anarch still a town read?
If they adopt it, then they have to re-evaluate their world, which they refuse to do on the basis that my PoE is garbage, which I assume means yours is as well.
I have considered all of jjjs reads this game lol and he’s the major reason why I doubted my stance on soa
It could be somewhat decent for all I know
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
If it helps, Johanna's spoilers are very short Fleabag roleplay and don't add a ton of stuff.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:24 am I slotted Johanna in there but to be honest I haven't really looked at her ISO because the spoil tags just make it impossible without an amount of effort that I'm unwilling to invest.
If you tell me she's green, then I have to consider my other reads and figure out which associative reads are weaker than I might have initially thought.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Strange that, normally I like roleplay while laying in bed.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:26 amIf it helps, Johanna's spoilers are very short Fleabag roleplay and don't add a ton of stuff.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:24 am I slotted Johanna in there but to be honest I haven't really looked at her ISO because the spoil tags just make it impossible without an amount of effort that I'm unwilling to invest.
If you tell me she's green, then I have to consider my other reads and figure out which associative reads are weaker than I might have initially thought.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
For PoE purposes:JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:26 amIf it helps, Johanna's spoilers are very short Fleabag roleplay and don't add a ton of stuff.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:24 am I slotted Johanna in there but to be honest I haven't really looked at her ISO because the spoil tags just make it impossible without an amount of effort that I'm unwilling to invest.
If you tell me she's green, then I have to consider my other reads and figure out which associative reads are weaker than I might have initially thought.
My only thoughts is that she's not aligned with falcon and Marmot.
I can easily see Johanna with any of the PoE from her posting.
Reads and T o N E stuff...
Her posts about her role and my group of 4 are noteworthy and I'm not sure what it means for her alignment - that particular group included Lime Coke, so regardless of her own alignment she could confidently laugh at it without outright lying.
The stuff about her role pm and flip are a bit t O N e - y and require some attention. It feels t O w N y, but I'm not sure if I'm allowed to make that read and it's the only towny thing from my PoV... Of course I'm 100% just trying to solve on PoE this game, so maybe I'm glossing over some key factor.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
I never engage on the actual reasoning for my reads.ilario wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:25 amI dismissed it the moment you refused to engage with me the reasoning of your readsNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:21 amJust so we're clear, you still think my PoE is terrible though, yes?ilario wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:25 pmNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:51 pmYou might want to try to get them to explain why they aren't adopting your PoE (and mine - as they are more or less the same for this purpose).JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:18 pm @ilario just for the log, is Son of Anarch still a town read?
If they adopt it, then they have to re-evaluate their world, which they refuse to do on the basis that my PoE is garbage, which I assume means yours is as well.
I have considered all of jjjs reads this game lol and he’s the major reason why I doubted my stance on soa
It could be somewhat decent for all I know
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Understood NAA. I’ll have to keep reviewing to determine if I was too generous.
@Sloonei it’d be super to get your take on Johanna as it pertains to her mafia fits.
@Sloonei it’d be super to get your take on Johanna as it pertains to her mafia fits.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
I'm tired and just gonna vote my cw
I think me/gman/jo is pure and this sitch kinda just sucks
Vote: SoA
I think me/gman/jo is pure and this sitch kinda just sucks
Vote: SoA
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
I find Dizzy's choices in the fakeclaim to be pretty good, but it's still falling for the same "lowposters are the poe" line
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
dizzy
falcon
gman
ilario
jjj
johanna
marmot
naa
soa
4 in here
I'm gonna stick with my meta read on jo. beyond that im kinda just lost
falcon
gman
ilario
jjj
johanna
marmot
naa
soa
4 in here
I'm gonna stick with my meta read on jo. beyond that im kinda just lost
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
if I decide we're clear that means 4 in dizzy falcon ilario jjj marmot naa soa
I kinda think that naa is just town now for being unnecessarily flashy yday as well
I can't shake the feeling that dizzy and jjj are contributing to a planned chainsaw into the [gman, me, jo] set after yday
I kinda think that naa is just town now for being unnecessarily flashy yday as well
I can't shake the feeling that dizzy and jjj are contributing to a planned chainsaw into the [gman, me, jo] set after yday
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Yeah I thought about that when I went to bed. I gather things have changed by now.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
It's accurateJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:08 pmWorth a response from @Johanna. I’m sure she would without my poke. I just want to acknowledge what G-Man said.G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:04 pm 'Threading the needle' is still an apt description for Johanna's ISO in my eyes. She has been very steady and consistent, but never aggressive. She reads, thinks, and responds. She seems to have a dry, cheeky sense of humor, which matches the subdued tone of he game-related content. I said before that I would like to see her rock the boat a little, but that doesn't seem to be her M.O. here. Her on-point content suits me better than a few other folks, but she still feels a little too at-the-radar for me to embrace her as a full townread.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
There is sometimes actual content in my spoilers, but always as a short sentence that modifies or completes the post, although generally I think they stand on their own.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Can you pursue someone aggressively if you don't have strong suspects? Because I feel like everyone in this thread is in a similar situation where most suspects are so by process of elimination, that is, that they are not as towny as others, which is often a pretty poor reason but it seems to be all we can rely on here.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Isn't that the same as asking "Is everyone in the PoE mafia"?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:32 pm General question for whoever wants to brave it:
If someone in the consensus POE is eliminated today and happens to flip town, is there any way in hell that both Dyslexicon and ilario are town-aligned?
My PoE: Dolby, G-Man, SOA, Falcon, Johanna. One of these has to be town.
Outside of that: Ilario, NAA, Marmot, Jimmay. If there's mafia here, they've fooled me. Not impossible. If I have to reevaluate on Ilario and NAA, I will. I'm not actually familiar with Ilario, but I still find it very hard to believe he's mafia here. I understand you can't access my feelings about this. In any case, what I'm trying to do right now is flipping the most likely mafia in the first group, of which there should be several.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
I've read through the interaction analysis and I agree with your conclusion regarding Johanna. She's looks the most town to me in any case, and she's the one I'd take out of that group. This remaining might just be the mafia team unless Ilario or NAA are deep. I don't have strong feelings about who to chop first, but I do feel we really need to hit mafia (so I should have strong feelings about it). If we're wrong on one of them, who are we most likely wrong on? I'd say Falcon probably. I'll go over SOA's ISO again too.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:35 pm
I did this for two reasons:
1) I wanted to see if anyone could be cleared. If more than one could be, then that'd be a big issue for the collective POE pool. Johanna can be cleared, the others cannot.
2) A more comprehensive review would help me to resolve what I got wrong the first time. I think I was too kind in the SoA interactions the first time. I believe the following team fits very well:
Son of Anarch, Dolby, G-Man, falcon
and in that order (from most confident to least confident fits).
Given that the POE pool can still run 5-deep, and I am removing Johanna, I can add someone in her place. The obvious emerging name would be ilario. I hope we can talk about it as a group though.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d1
Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:01 pm Also that SPF sleuthin' post on sig was so mind blowy I don't even know where my brain is at, like I could barely comprehend it, but it sounded right
[VOTE: sig] aubergine
Reminder that I'm pea-brained
SOA's iso is still "fine" overall, but these two posts in particular are really awkward imo. I think the stuff that made me town read him was his energy plus the fact that he was putting himself out there quite a lot. This could just be a style thing though. With how he's dropped off, I think if he's mafia, the PoE is good. Similar to Dolby. So that just reinforces that feeling for me.Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:36 pm Sloonei, that post got me thinkin' and now I'm kinda wonderin'... Are you sayin' you think this dialogue between me and sig could be town/town?
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Out of SOA/Dolby/G-Man/Falcon, I'm most afraid that Falcon will flip town. I feel chances are really high for each of the others to flip mafia, OR we're probably losing this game anyway.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
So not much has changed for me. Good talk.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Giving Sloonei an opportunity to resolve this effort. Then I support a hammer on either wagon.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
lolJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:40 amGiving Sloonei an opportunity to resolve this effort. Then I support a hammer on either wagon.
Russian Machine Never Breaks 769 #3
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Good mornin' all
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Good morning SoA. You’ll want to move with purpose; you’re at L-1.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
It’s 6 to hammer?
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Yeah, yeah. I can see that but hey don't worry, as long as ya guys don't hammer me before I'm able to out my finals n' stuff it's all good
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Hello there, Soa
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Hey Dizzy! Can you guys tell me a bit about what I missed if ya don't mind?
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
You think it’s good you’re getting chopped?Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:01 am Yeah, yeah. I can see that but hey don't worry, as long as ya guys don't hammer me before I'm able to out my finals n' stuff it's all good
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
This speed is dizzying
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
I probably won't have time to read the entire thread, but I know Dolby is my counter wagon.
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
Scum is you, G-Man, Dolby and Falcon. Rest is town. I think that’s it.Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:01 am Hey Dizzy! Can you guys tell me a bit about what I missed if ya don't mind?
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
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Re: Fleabag Mafia d3
That's kind of a loaded question. What I'm sayin' is that obviously bein' chopped here is bad, but if you guys at least give me enough time to out my final reads then I won't feel pissed about it.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:02 amYou think it’s good you’re getting chopped?Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:01 am Yeah, yeah. I can see that but hey don't worry, as long as ya guys don't hammer me before I'm able to out my finals n' stuff it's all good