Guess Who? Mafia

[Dragon D. Luffy]

G-Man did not vote, though. Guess he was trying to pressure her.

He has a point though, defeatist posts like this one splints made usually point out to mafia. Townies don't give up that easily.

When did Gman make this point you are agreeing with about my "defeatist post"
also when did I give up? All I said was I was never going to agree with that

I disagree that they usually point to mafia. you have made a similar point in other games (economics) and were proven wrong there too

You will probably be getting my vote.

Linki

On the contrary, I was proven right. We got both Roxy and Bass lynched in that game and they were calling it quits when it happened. Arguably Roxy was having real life issues, but Bass pulled the same thing when he was being taken to the gallows.

I agreed with this:

Glad you're okay with getting lynched early.

Though it seems G-Man wasn't being serious about it, but I still think it was worth pointing out.

You didn't give up? Fine. But that was the vibe I got from your post, and when I see anything suspicious, I'll point it out, even if it is probably not an useful clue. Sooner or later something will be.

[G-Man]

The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

G-Man did not vote, though. Guess he was trying to pressure her.

He has a point though, defeatist posts like this one splints made usually point out to mafia. Townies don't give up that easily.

I have as a townie.

These kind of blanket statements without any back up is silly.

Townies give up as much as baddies do.
It has more to do with rl than whether bad or good.

Well, I'm speaking from my own experience here. Don't know about yours. Last game I played in my forum TWO mafiosos gave up when they were being lynched.

But the thing is, they weren't necessarily giving up. They were probably just attempting to make people give up on lynching them by looking distressed. One of them even threatened to use an ability to redirect the lynch into a confirmed townie.

But town usually has no reason to do that. Specially in a game like this where town has to survive to win.

So I'm talking about giving up in terms of in-game strategy. Real life is an entirely different matter, and I have no business trying to analyse that.

I think every player is different in terms of their willingness to just throw in the towel as a baddie. It almost always depends on the situation- the baddie team's perceived strength, actual team #'s, and how that individual felt when they woke up that morning.

I mean, look at what I did in BoB. I neither gave up, nor did I fight to the bitter end. I think it's a little too early to be calling anyone defeatist. It is never too early, however, to find "well if that's how you want to play, then take me out now" posts fishy. Here fishy fishy fishy!

Guys, an awful lot of people haven't even checked in yet. Settle down.

Um, no. The only player who hasn't posted yet since this thread went live is TurnipHead.

[timmer]

While I don't really like that Roxy and splints said they wouldn't vote MP due to a missing avatar (this game DOES revolve around having one, naturally) I would NOT say that splints' posts have been defeatist. Veteran players sometimes just know where they stand, and are happy to put it out there and make people vote them for it. Like, if splints is civ, and meant what she said, there is nothing for her to do or say at this moment than just hope for the best. Veteran players know that sometimes you get lynched on Day 1 for stupid things and tend not to take it personally.

It's not technically throwing in the towel, it's just being comfortable with what you've said and accepting that sometimes you get the heave ho early in a game and that's how mafia works.

I'm more interested in the people trying actively to stir shit up.

[Roxy]

omg I am feeling townie vibes from Timmer

I never get this vibe this early - I may be proven wrong but I feel good about Timmy.

[fingersplints]

G-Man did not vote, though. Guess he was trying to pressure her.

He has a point though, defeatist posts like this one splints made usually point out to mafia. Townies don't give up that easily.

When did Gman make this point you are agreeing with about my "defeatist post"
also when did I give up? All I said was I was never going to agree with that

I disagree that they usually point to mafia. you have made a similar point in other games (economics) and were proven wrong there too

You will probably be getting my vote.

Linki

On the contrary, I was proven right. We got both Roxy and Bass lynched in that game and they were calling it quits when it happened. Arguably Roxy was having real life issues, but Bass pulled the same thing when he was being taken to the gallows.

I agreed with this:

Glad you're okay with getting lynched early.

Though it seems G-Man wasn't being serious about it, but I still think it was worth pointing out.

You didn't give up? Fine. But that was the vibe I got from your post, and when I see anything suspicious, I'll point it out, even if it is probably not an useful clue. Sooner or later something will be.

Actually you were also proven wrong because I'm pretty sure you accused me of giving up then too and were wrong.
Roxy and Bass giving up because they had RL stuff doesn't make your theory that baddies give up more correct at all to me.

I never said you couldn't suspect me (actually I said just the opposite which you know because that's what you suspect me for) but I am allowed to suspect you too. I think your reasoning is weak and jumping on to someone else's suspicion. You even say that you agree with Gman so he will get the blame when I come back a civvie.

[fingersplints]

While I don't really like that Roxy and splints said they wouldn't vote MP due to a missing avatar (this game DOES revolve around having one, naturally) I would NOT say that splints' posts have been defeatist. Veteran players sometimes just know where they stand, and are happy to put it out there and make people vote them for it. Like, if splints is civ, and meant what she said, there is nothing for her to do or say at this moment than just hope for the best. Veteran players know that sometimes you get lynched on Day 1 for stupid things and tend not to take it personally.

It's not technically throwing in the towel, it's just being comfortable with what you've said and accepting that sometimes you get the heave ho early in a game and that's how mafia works.

I'm more interested in the people trying actively to stir shit up.

I'm so glad you understand me

I used to get lynched a lot Day 1. It's been a long time, and I think I am probably due. I'm going to still post, I just don't see it as the end of the world. It's gotta be someone

[thellama73]

The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Yes. You passed my clever test.

Guys, an awful lot of people haven't even checked in yet. Settle down.

Um, no. The only player who hasn't posted yet since this thread went live is TurnipHead.

My bad. I forgot the Hedgeowl and Spacedaisy were here since they vanished after the first page.

Missing Person still has no avatar.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

@splints

Forgot about that one. You're right. I still think my theory works most of the time though, you aren't gonna make me change my mind about that.

But I'm gonna give you a pass for now since it seems I misinterpreted your post this time.

And I wasn't deliberately jumping on G-Man's suspicions. I saw something I agreed with and decided to pursue it. I take responsibility for my own suspicions, regadless of whether someone said the same thing or not. I'm very aware that mafia can use that kind of play to makes townies lynch each other, and I wouldn't fall to that if a townie got lynched.

[G-Man]

I agreed with this:

Glad you're okay with getting lynched early.

Though it seems G-Man wasn't being serious about it, but I still think it was worth pointing out.

You didn't give up? Fine. But that was the vibe I got from your post, and when I see anything suspicious, I'll point it out, even if it is probably not an useful clue. Sooner or later something will be.

Know this, Dragon: I like to joke around a LOT during the first couple of days. I'm kind of a smart ass like that. Years ago I may have been more serious but I've gone soft with age, so assume I'm joking until I say otherwise.

While I don't really like that Roxy and splints said they wouldn't vote MP due to a missing avatar (this game DOES revolve around having one, naturally) I would NOT say that splints' posts have been defeatist. Veteran players sometimes just know where they stand, and are happy to put it out there and make people vote them for it. Like, if splints is civ, and meant what she said, there is nothing for her to do or say at this moment than just hope for the best. Veteran players know that sometimes you get lynched on Day 1 for stupid things and tend not to take it personally.

It's not technically throwing in the towel, it's just being comfortable with what you've said and accepting that sometimes you get the heave ho early in a game and that's how mafia works.

This x 1,000,000.
We mafia geezers who know each other from before the Republicans took back the House of Representatives aren't typically fazed by comments like those made by Roxy or Splints unless they fit into a recent pattern.

The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Yes. You passed my clever test.

Do I get a sticker?

[fingersplints]

I should say if MP continues to not get an avatar I would later vote him. I just think it's early to say that is suspicious given he has made it clear he is traveling.
I also don't really find llama suspicious for suggesting voting him for that reason because it's in character for llama regardless of his affiliation

[Dragon D. Luffy]

@ G-Man

Yeah I suppose I should start looking at your avatar whenever I think you are being serious.

I'm a very competitive person, I'll try hard to win and take the game seriously when I'm enjoying it. But don't think I'm actually hating or getting angry with anyone, I know it's just a game.

[timmer]

LOL, I'm glad you guys see my point. I'm watching Wimbledon right now, and am reminded of years ago watching a young Federer vs an old Agassi in the U.S. Open. Federer was throwing himself at every point, running, leaping, and ultimately winning. Agassi knew his back had a limit and reached for the points he knew he had a good chance to get, but if a shot was a certain distance away, he just calmly let it go and walked to his mark for the next serve. It was a cool life lesson in maturity and acceptance. Now, when I watch an older Federer, he's getting the same way, though he's not at Agassi's point yet.

I see mafia vets in the same light.

[Spacedaisy]

The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Yes. You passed my clever test.

Guys, an awful lot of people haven't even checked in yet. Settle down.

Um, no. The only player who hasn't posted yet since this thread went live is TurnipHead.

My bad. I forgot the Hedgeowl and Spacedaisy were here since they vanished after the first page.

Missing Person still has no avatar.

Dude, I have to work you know... I am currently catching up on my lunch break and will post properly when I get home tonight.

[timmer]

And I say if MP can't get an avatar by tonight, there are plenty of funny gifs out there we could use FOR her. In the meantime... this cracked me up.

[thellama73]

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

[timmer]

If she puts an avatar or gets replaced, we'll then be able to ask questions about her avatar. Problem solved.

I'm more suspicious of people who try to direct the game's attention into lynching inactives.

Hey Dragon, to get serious for a second here, you ARE aware that you made this post before Missing Person had posted, right? So technically, you were trying to direct the game's attention... into lynching an inactive.

[G-Man]

And I say if MP can't get an avatar by tonight, there are plenty of funny gifs out there we could use FOR her. In the meantime... this cracked me up.

LOL! I was going to sarcastically suggest that very question. You, sir, have one-upped me.

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

You won't piss me off. I'm considering voting for him if he doesn't show by the time I have to vote, which is about two hours from now.

[thellama73]

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

You won't piss me off. I'm considering voting for him if he doesn't show by the time I have to vote, which is about two hours from now.

It would be the kind thing to do. Protect his participation score.

[fingersplints]

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

Why would that piss everyone off?

[thellama73]

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

Why would that piss everyone off?

People hate when I vote for non-participants or people who "have not had the chance to defend themselves."

[G-Man]

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

You won't piss me off. I'm considering voting for him if he doesn't show by the time I have to vote, which is about two hours from now.

It would be the kind thing to do. Protect his participation score.

More importantly, given TurnipHead's absence from another game at the moment, he could become a distraction and a liability to the civvies if he is a civvie and his absence persists. In a game this tight, an absentee civvie is the baddie team's best friend. They sure as heck won't kill off a civvie player who is not actively playing. They'll leave them hanging out there as long as possible for the civvies to fret over.

[Elohcin]

The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Yes. You passed my clever test.

So I thought the same thing while reading llama's post. But then I thought, "well, this is llama writing this so it must be right somehow." This is how highly I think of Llama's intelligence and how unconfident I am in my own.

Do I talk too much as a host?

[Marmot]

Guys, an awful lot of people haven't even checked in yet. Settle down.

I have checked in.

I am still on the road though.

[G-Man]

The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Yes. You passed my clever test.

So I thought the same thing while reading llama's post. But then I thought, "well, this is llama writing this so it must be right somehow." This is how highly I think of Llama's intelligence and how unconfident I am in my own.

Do I talk too much as a host?

No. Just wait until you see me host a game!

[thellama73]

The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Yes. You passed my clever test.

So I thought the same thing while reading llama's post. But then I thought, "well, this is llama writing this so it must be right somehow." This is how highly I think of Llama's intelligence and how unconfident I am in my own.

Do I talk too much as a host?

I talk a lot as a host too. I like when the host chats with us, especially when I have no chatzy to talk to you in AM I RIGHT, CIVVIES!?

[G-Man]

The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Yes. You passed my clever test.

So I thought the same thing while reading llama's post. But then I thought, "well, this is llama writing this so it must be right somehow." This is how highly I think of Llama's intelligence and how unconfident I am in my own.

Do I talk too much as a host?

I talk a lot as a host too. I like when the host chats with us, especially when I have no chatzy to talk to you in AM I RIGHT, CIVVIES!?

Oui oui my fine fezzed friend.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

If she puts an avatar or gets replaced, we'll then be able to ask questions about her avatar. Problem solved.

I'm more suspicious of people who try to direct the game's attention into lynching inactives.

Hey Dragon, to get serious for a second here, you ARE aware that you made this post before Missing Person had posted, right? So technically, you were trying to direct the game's attention... into lynching an inactive.

No, I was trying to direct the game's attention into suspecting someone who was suspecting the inactive (llama).

Technically you could say I was helping make more people pay attention to MP, but that was the side effect, not the goal.

[Epignosis]

Guys, an awful lot of people haven't even checked in yet. Settle down.

I have checked in.

I am still on the road though.

I was wondering why you haven't voted already.

[fingersplints]

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

Why would that piss everyone off?

People hate when I vote for non-participants or people who "have not had the chance to defend themselves."

Turnip Head has been absent in several games though, so I think this is a different situation.

[Golden]

I don't see much point. She is essentially not playing the game. If it stays like that, she is probably just getting replaced for being inactive, or modkilled. Sounds like a waste of a lynch.

She's not going to get modkilled, because Eloh doesn't do those things. She might get replaced, but that doesn't make her more likely to be good. It's only a waste of a lynch if she is not mafia. Right now, we can't find out whether she is mafia or not, because she has robbed us of our only way of doing so by not having an avatar. Seems like the best option to me.

I think this is a reasonable point. I won't vote generally vote someone for being inactive, but Missing Person has left us in a position where we can't ask any questions to determine his alignment. If it continues long, it also potentially jeopardises how well we can apply answered questions to that role, even if someone subs in.

[Golden]

And then MP turned up about three posts later. Sorry, reading this in order. But still no avatar yet...

[timmer]

No, I was trying to direct the game's attention into suspecting someone who was suspecting the inactive (llama).

Technically you could say I was helping make more people pay attention to MP, but that was the side effect, not the goal.

Yes, you're right, I actually misread the gist of your post, there.

[Golden]

I would have made the same point, and Rox would have agreed with me had I been a bit earlier to the thread. Same discussion different game

I agree with this. I didn't see splints as sucking up to roxy.

I was slightly pinged, however, by the fact roxy appeared to admit that she knew Missing Person isn't actually new but characterises him as new 'because she hasn't played with him before'. I haven't really seen that as part of Roxy's newbie policy before, and its a slightly odd part.

[Golden]

(seriously dude, you should consider keeping that pic permanently- it's awesome)

I do look kinda badass with an afro

[Golden]

If I am suspicious for thinking it is unfair to vote a newer player for a silly reason like he hasn't been able to upload an avatar yet then so be it. If that is how we will be hunting baddies probably for the best to get rid of me now anyways because I will never agree that that is a good way to go about it

Glad you're okay with getting lynched early. My plan is to vote out the people who are better looking than me. Considering that everyone is better looking than me, I'm glad somebody stepped forward and volunteered to go first. It makes my Day 1 decision that much easier.

*votes splints*

I'm really glad that when I looked in the poll this vote was not there. Otherwise I would have been thinking differently about G-Man.

I can't catch up everything before work. This thread went from quiet to having a whole lot of meaningful posting in it. I like it when day one has real content to work with.

[G-Man]

Probably going to vote in the next 30-45 minutes. Somebody slip up!

[Golden]

Also, Missing Person is not a newbie. She played Omerta Mafia. So Roxy's "protecting newbies" stance is mistaken at best, and intentionally misleading at worst.

Um I think you hosted that game so you should remember every one of my 3 posts as I died N 1 I did not remember anything from that game bc I died waaayyy before my time.
In context your arguement holds no water imho.

I didn't even remember you played omerta, roxy.

Plus, I know that was happening at a challenging time generally for Roxy with economics and other stuff burning her out and putting her in a position where she needed a bit of a break. I do not think Roxy saying it was her first time with MP was intentionally misleading.

[thellama73]

Well, I'm off to catch a plane. Voting Turnip Head.

[Epignosis]

What about her saying llama was the host?

[Black Rock]

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

Why would that piss everyone off?

People hate when I vote for non-participants or people who "have not had the chance to defend themselves."

Turnip Head has been absent in several games though, so I think this is a different situation.

I agree and am also going to vote for Turnip Head.

[G-Man]

Quick vote and then I gotta take off until Saturday. TurnipHead hasn't shown his turnipy mug yet so I'm voting for him. I hope Missing Person uploads an avatar pic by the end of the day or that poses some serious problems. Either that or it makes out first question to the host very easy- are any of the mafia members represented by a blank image?

[Marmot]

Guys, an awful lot of people haven't even checked in yet. Settle down.

I have checked in.

I am still on the road though.

I was wondering why you haven't voted already.

There's also the fact that "I don't see the "discussion" coalescing around anyone in particular".

[Golden]

While I don't really like that Roxy and splints said they wouldn't vote MP due to a missing avatar (this game DOES revolve around having one, naturally) I would NOT say that splints' posts have been defeatist. Veteran players sometimes just know where they stand, and are happy to put it out there and make people vote them for it. Like, if splints is civ, and meant what she said, there is nothing for her to do or say at this moment than just hope for the best. Veteran players know that sometimes you get lynched on Day 1 for stupid things and tend not to take it personally.

It's not technically throwing in the towel, it's just being comfortable with what you've said and accepting that sometimes you get the heave ho early in a game and that's how mafia works.

I'm more interested in the people trying actively to stir shit up.

This is the vibe I get from splints posts too.

24 hours is a real bummer for me just with the way my week has been. I'm not about a lot between now and poll closing and I haven't yet read everything. So here is what I'll say so far.

I have civ vibes from g-man and splints.
I don't begrudge llama and DDL for trying to stir things up and I haven't seen anything from either of them that has felt like it isn't a genuine perspective.

I'll vote for Missing Person if he doesn't post an avatar by end of day. I think getting the avatar in is far more urgent than posting in the thread, unless we can ask as someone suggested if the person has no features at all. The thing that bothers me is that MP can tailor his avatar to his affiliation now, and it gives him an advantage.

I'm not averse to a vote for TH - he has vanished from the site between when he posted his avatar and now, and I see no reason to think he will be back soon or even know the game is on. Aside from that, his avatar is one of the singular most difficult ones to be proving is mafia through questioning, and I don't think it's a bad idea to weed that out in the absence of a clear suspect.

Other people I have had pings on (eg Roxy) it's more a point of interest for future reference than being able to ascribe any baddie motivations to it just yet.

One thing that bothers me a little is that some people are a little quieter than I'd like - epi, hedge, daisy and ninja come to mind for me here. Although it could be because of the conflated timeframe by which to make our first vote. I think I might seem quieter than usual too. But I have my eye on this going forward.

[Golden]

What about her saying llama was the host?

Llama did host that game, didn't he?

I've caught up

[Epignosis]

What about her saying llama was the host?

Llama did host that game, didn't he?

Wat.

Let's see here...

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 21#p145221

Yep, yep, pretty sure I hosted that one.

[Golden]

I'm glad I can get a rise out of you, epi. :P

[Epignosis]

I'm glad I can get a rise out of you, epi. :P

[Marmot]

I'm voting Golden. I suspect him for being mafia.

[Epignosis]

One thing that bothers me a little is that some people are a little quieter than I'd like - epi, hedge, daisy and ninja come to mind for me here. Although it could be because of the conflated timeframe by which to make our first vote. I think I might seem quieter than usual too. But I have my eye on this going forward.

I'm a little tired of this. When I post a lot, people say I'm distracting. When I don't, people say I'm "a little quieter" than they like. I post when I have something to say. Sometimes that's a lot. Sometimes it's not.

I've questioned DDL on a few points here and there. The former item makes me wonder if DDL asked in BTSC what would happen if Missing Person didn't post an avatar, and the host told. He says it was a guess. I don't believe that. The second item exaggerates fingersplints' attitude and makes it into something it isn't.

Is there anything else you like from me, Lord Golden?

[Ricochet]

Catching up, because the bit I kept up with was before the thread exploded from 1 to 4 pages.

Off-topics first.

Eloh chatting with us is fine. Also, she seems a more friendly host than Episcopalian, although also keener to modkill. Mixed feelings about that.

Both DDL and Llama repeatedly call MP a "she". Oh, and then Timmer too. Are they trying to impersonate me? Splints got it right, apparently a woman can tell.

Did the mafia buy coffee for a girl one night?

No. And she had a milkshake, so I went with a limonade myself, because coffee isn't my thing.

LOL, I'm glad you guys see my point. I'm watching Wimbledon right now, and am reminded of years ago watching a young Federer vs an old Agassi in the U.S. Open. Federer was throwing himself at every point, running, leaping, and ultimately winning. Agassi knew his back had a limit and reached for the points he knew he had a good chance to get, but if a shot was a certain distance away, he just calmly let it go and walked to his mark for the next serve. It was a cool life lesson in maturity and acceptance. Now, when I watch an older Federer, he's getting the same way, though he's not at Agassi's point yet.

I see mafia vets in the same light.

Nice post, tennis bro. I never caught Agassi playing.