Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

#2201

Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and fingersplints

this is a huge post so i've enclosed it within numerous spoilers.

BR was involved with splints more than any other player in her post history. so all of the important bits will be covered by default when i look at splints. if anyone is unsure just how focused splints has been on BR in this game: a CTRL+F in her ISO for "BR" currently yields 86 results. she has 85 posts.

Spoiler: show

this was the initial post in which splints first raised suspicion about BR's infamous defense of MP. question for the general Syndicateer population: how common is it around here for games to feature more than one mafia team? from my perspective it's curious that splints bothered to mention this stipulation, but if it happens a lot here then nevermind.

this aggression by splints against BR continued almost unchecked until she was finally lynched. so if we're to consider the possibility that splints was bussing BR the whole time, i think we need to consider a few things:

1.) was splints going after BR hard enough on Day 1 to actually encourage her lynch? because Day 1 bussing, while not impossible, is inherently less common and more foolhardy than bussing on any other day phase.

2.) do BR's responses exhibit the character of a mafia player being shelled by a townie or strategically distanced by a team mate? a lot of the bussing theory has been centered on the behavior of splints, but we must also consider how BR reacted.

3.) did splints's behavior change at all relative to the content of other players in the game about BR?

i will weigh the points i make about splints against these points and reference them by number and color.

Spoiler: show

splints maintained the heat on BR and pledged a probable vote. had this vote actually taken place (splints eventually voted for MP on Day 1) at a time when the lynch was still open before the Golden landslide, then i would think this would be a good example of #1. but that's not what happened. splints's Day 1 pressure against BR was constant and ruthless, but there was never really any likelihood of BR actually being lynched.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 46#p144846 -- this is a link to a huge Sloonei post about splints which includes each of her responses. some highlights:

Spoiler: show

the underlined bit almost made me jump out of my seat and scream "splints is town everyone!" out my bedroom window. but the second sentence kind of ruins that. i do really like that splints was partially willing to exonerate her other top suspect of Day 1 (MP) in the event of a BR mafia flip. that is suggestive of an objective townie mindset. but she left the caveat laying there to defeat that opportunity, so my excitement is quelled some.

Spoiler: show

the yellow highlighted bit reiterates the point i just made and with positive reflection upon splints. hey splints: what do you think of MP right now?

her vote for BR was the only vote for BR that phase (during the landslide lynch of Elohcin). this can be viewed two ways: either she stubbornly forced her vote onto her top suspect regardless of the public shift to Elohcin, or she knew Elohcin would flip non-mafia and distanced herself from result. considering the candor and language of her aggression against BR prior to this, i think it's fair to favor the former possibility here. this recalls point #3 as well. nobody else was keen enough on the BR case at this point to place a vote, but splints didn't change her tune at all in response to that. this can be called classic tunneling (which if true was well-advised tunneling apparently).

fingersplints wrote:You guys really think that both me and BR are bad?

How many baddies do you think there are MP?

here's a big meaty WIFOM sandwich.

fingersplints wrote:Also, you accuse me of tunneling when most every suspicion of me has been about my suspicion of BR. If you can figure out a way for me to defend myself without mentioning her I will, but until then yea I am going to have to talk about it a lot. This little Day 1 suspicion probably would have died down, but BR's behaviour and a couple others defense of her make me feel more strongly then ever that I am right.

BR I hope you can at least appreciate it from that perspective.

it's Day 3 now and splints is still going after BR with the same fervor as before. at this point there is a growing case against BR as presented by TH, myself, and others. so this is another example of #3 which i think is decent. no matter what else is happening in the thread regarding BR, splints has maintained a mindset of offense. even when she was defending herself about accusations related to her tunneling BR, she continued to tunnel BR. this is exemplary carefree screw y'all i'm right, deal with it candor and i think it's a pretty positive thing for splints right now.

Black Rock wrote:I don't think it's nitpicking at all. I think putting the word in trust goes a lot further than what I actually said. By saying I defended him and trusted him his misleading. There is a difference in trusting a player and understanding a players actions. If you can't see that then take off the blinders.

here's an example of BR responding to splints on Day 3. her defense is focused on semantics (the meanings of the words "trust" and "defense" in mafia), and i found it uninspired. i highlighted the last sentence before too as looking like indignant mafioso pouting. i think this might reflect decently on splints in that it's not uncommon for mafia players to try to coerce threatening townies with aggressive language like this. a mildly positive application of #2.

Spoiler: show

but... this. w-whu... why...? WHY? this single post is the most important driving force behind the semi-consensus theory of bussing, and i admit it thoroughly confuses me. there was heat on BR at this point. BR was a pretty good lynch prospect. splints was more suspicious of BR than aether. so WHY? augh. after all of the effort splints had exhausted throughout the game to cast suspicion upon BR had gone largely ignored (except to make splints a suspect), the chance was nigh for it to come to fruition.

but she voted for aether. the very quiet player who is always completely unlikely to defend herself if her conduct in this game is any indication. there's nothing i can say about this other than it looks terrible. i really don't get it at all. in the event that aether is also scum this will look a little less terrible, but that's kind of the problem. we'll never know that without actually lynching aether. our hands are forced if we want to examine this problem more deeply.

~~~

there are some good indicators here for splints. her treatment of MP relative to her suspicion of BR looks mostly positive i think. and she was consistent about her suspicion regardless of game circumstance. but the aether vote on Day 3 is a serious blow to this post history and i can't get over it right now. she needs to talk about it ASAP.

#2202

Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and G-Man

i'm going to actually analyze this man. he shouldn't be left out anymore! he is trying to be a part of the game! but it's going to involve lots of spoilers.

Black Rock wrote:How is Gman cursed already?

hey look! there's a BR post about a player i am analyzing! if G-Man is town then he was a very easy target on Day 1. so this post could work in his favor.

Spoiler: show

G-Man provided reads on every player on Day 2. isn't that awesome? so many people didn't do this, but the guy posting nothing but pictures did. he was admittedly on the fence about BR. this won't be a great thing if it's a trend. so we'll see...

Spoiler: show

he provided another full reads list on Day 3 (seriously, this guy is my favorite). and he listed BR among his baddie suspects. super good!

Spoiler: show

he eventually pledged that his vote was likely going to land on BR. so did it?

Spoiler: show

it did indeed. G-Man liked TH's case and dropped the very first vote on BR. it was important too because aether had gotten the early vote and it could have easily mounted against her had someone not gotten the ball rolling on BR.

~~~

G-Man might be my top town read right now tbh.

#2203

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:to be honest i was [pleasantly] surprised when sanmateo voted BR. i thought he would go with aether.

i didnt tho

#2204

feeling pretty sure about mp now. i was gonna say i was sure about jay too but i looked thru his history and apparently he said early in the day

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My most likely vote as of now is aether.

was it th's case what convinced you? still i think he's most likely town i'm just being fickle and that bothered me a bit

#2205

Bass_the_Clever wrote:Im going to go ahead a vote BR I think she is bad news.

of the people who voted for br, bass is the only one who i think could be scum, only because he does the "yeah good points *votes*"

#2206

Russtifinko wrote:It should be noted that Nash requested that ANYONE be able to vote in this poll. So hosts, mods, dead, non-players, and anybody else we can round up gets a say. Llama and MM, you guys could place a vote by bolding in-thread, since you already chose the non-vote option in the poll

I will vote properly if you rezz me.

#2207

sanmateo wrote:
Bass_the_Clever wrote:Im going to go ahead a vote BR I think she is bad news.
of the people who voted for br, bass is the only one who i think could be scum, only because he does the "yeah good points *votes*"

what significance do you think there is in the fact that Bass's vote broke a 3-3 tie with aether to give BR the lead?

#2208

sanmateo wrote:feeling pretty sure about mp now. i was gonna say i was sure about jay too but i looked thru his history and apparently he said early in the day

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My most likely vote as of now is aether.
was it th's case what convinced you? still i think he's most likely town i'm just being fickle and that bothered me a bit

TH's case influenced me yes. you'll also note the posts i made from my phone that i felt there was more informational promise in a BR/splints lynch than an aether lynch. and i had previously cast suspicion on BR in an ISO and placed her in the "orange" category. aether was also a suspect (also detailed in a Day 3 ISO), but i've struggled to shake the feeling that her behavior is not that abnormal for her as a townie. i alluded to that a couple times during the day. she's a very easy target for the mafia team if she is town, and that's especially important in this environment. none of these people know anything about her and the mafia would thus be even more likely to try to take advantage of her low-content performance.

#2209

These song vids are fantastic. Nice game Nash. They were both fun but I'm gonna vote for G-Man, I think he beats MP by a hair :P

#2210

thellama73 wrote:And for all our players, we have a special treat!

Two of your fellow players have decided to sing a song for you. Please vote on the singer you most prefer by the end of the Night phase.

Lol these are great! *standing ovation*

Btw I guess this is a good time to ask: Has G-man been cursed? Is that why he's only talking in pictures?

#2211

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
sanmateo wrote:
Bass_the_Clever wrote:Im going to go ahead a vote BR I think she is bad news.
of the people who voted for br, bass is the only one who i think could be scum, only because he does the "yeah good points *votes*"
what significance do you think there is in the fact that Bass's vote broke a 3-3 tie with aether to give BR the lead?

I know this question wasn't directed at me oh well... I think it was a well placed vote either way. This isn't Bass' first rodeo either. He knows what he's doing.

#2212

Make sure you ask all your questions for me before I die tonight.

#2213

Turnip Head wrote:Make sure you ask all your questions for me before I die tonight.

why'd you say you would vote for me and didn't?

#2214

TinyBubbles wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:Make sure you ask all your questions for me before I die tonight.
why'd you say you would vote for me and didn't?

It seemed like fun

Also I sort of explained my thought process in the post I made about you the next morning, idk if you saw that one.

#2215

JJ - I hate to be the bludger that suggests you do all the work, but I think a BR/Epi comparison could also be useful to help us figure if we have two or three baddies left alive.

#2216

Golden wrote:JJ - I hate to be the bludger that suggests you do all the work, but I think a BR/Epi comparison could also be useful to help us figure if we have two or three baddies left alive.

His name has 3 J's, not two.

#2217

Hey, man, I explained how busy I was back on day one! Stop making me use up my time writing extra J's! (But not until you've analysed whether or not using all J's is me on or off meta

)

Anyway, he is JJ to me because I think Jagged feels more like a descriptor and JimmyJay feels more like a name.

#2218

Golden wrote:Hey, man, I explained how busy I was back on day one! Stop making me use up my time writing extra J's! (But not until you've analysed whether or not using all J's is me on or off meta )

Anyway, he is JJ to me because I think Jagged feels more like a descriptor and JimmyJay feels more like a name.

G could be looked at as a descriptor for Olden.

#2219

Golden wrote:JJ - I hate to be the bludger that suggests you do all the work, but I think a BR/Epi comparison could also be useful to help us figure if we have two or three baddies left alive.

very good call. i'd have not considered that.

i might not have enough time in the night phase to cover everyone. if not, i ask that anyone else take up the banner and finish these interactive analyses. i think they're the most useful thing we can do with a mafia lynch.

and i am sure other people will perceive this content differently to me, so let's talk about it. i understand 75% of the people will see the massive posts and roll their eyes though.

#2220

Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and MovingPictures07

Black Rock wrote:Just catching up here. You guys have been busy today.

This post is where I'm at.

Elohcin wrote:I see that DDL thinks all those who've been posting tonight look like town. I disagree, but not only that, I highly doubt that none of the mafia are talking. I just can't see that being the case. Honestly, I see MP's over-helpful behavior as suspicious. I know we have a lot of new players and he wants to be helpful, but there's just something fishy about it.
I really don't see MP as being overly helpful. I see it more as him excited about the new players and helping them out. I would expect this behaviour from MP and I would expect you to see this as well.

this is the post which splints found so suspicious. there are two potential implications here to be weighed against one another:

~ BR knew MP was non-mafia and defended him to earn his good graces and potentially look better in the event that he ended up lynched (apparently that's an early game tradition of a sort around here?).

~ BR's team mate (MP) was drawing an inordinate amount of Day 1 heat, so she lent him a little public support to alleviate the problem

i am inclined to think the former is more likely than the latter. such blatant defending of scum mates on Day 1 is usually not a natural behavior for a mafia player to exhibit. but again, that's somewhat WIFOM and stranger things have definitely happened. what might be more interesting than this defense is that BR vehemently denied it having been a defense in every applicable post thereafter.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Black Rock -- (previously Very slight civilian read) -- While I appreciate her defense of me against Elohcin's accusation, I'm not convinced it's coming from a civilian mindset. I need to hear more.

MP gave BR a slight scum read in an early rainbow. i like that he cited BR's defense of him as a reason, as this is indicative of a player wary of someone giving him a hand for unknown reasons -- as would be in the mind of a townie. it's paranoia, and i like it.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Black Rock -- (#1 No read or unsure, #2 Very slight mafia read) -- BR answered my call to hear more and her subsequent contributions to the game have been in typical BR meta (she gets more active and assertive as the game progresses) and reasonable. Back up to very slightly civilian she goes.

BR enjoys a ride up the ladder for MP's next Day 1 rainbow. it could be said that MP gave BR too easy a route from the negative to the positive sides of her list here. in fairness though, MP's rainbows have been highly variable for a number of players. he seems to be very malleable with his reads in general, which isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as there's TRANSPARENCY.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Strike #4 is the biggest strike BY FAR and that is your suspicion of BR. First off, you NO U'd her 100%, which makes your incorrect "NO U" against me ironic to the highest degree.

this post was directed at splints, but BR was the primary point of contention. MP didn't like splints's aggression against BR seemingly, enough so that splints became a lasting suspect for MP. this is distinctly defensive of BR, which is consistent with the most recent rainbow list. not the best thing though considering the mafia flip.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Black Rock -- (#1 No read or unsure, #2 Very slight mafia read, #3 Very slight civilian read) -- In #3, I said: "BR answered my call to hear more and her subsequent contributions to the game have been in typical BR meta (she gets more active and assertive as the game progresses) and reasonable. Back up to very slightly civilian she goes." This still stands.

this rainbow was from Night 1. BR is now MP's 4th highest ranked town read, albeit still as a "slight" town read. BR's content during this period began to wane in frequency so it'd make less sense if this read started changing -- particularly considering MP's continued suspicion of splints over the BR issue.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Black Rock -- (#1 No read or unsure, #2 Very slight mafia read, #3 Very slight civilian read, #4 no change) -- DROP! Since she is sick and some good points have been brought up during D2, I'm back to really having no idea whatsoever about BR. Hopefully she feels better and she can properly contribute soon.

Day 2 rainbow. i'm curious which points made against BR were of interest to MP. could you elaborate? the drop isn't majorly significant, just from slight civilian to neutral. but it sets up a further drop later on, so whatever swayed you must have been especially interesting, MP.

Spoiler: show

MP's shift from town read to mafia read on BR is fully realized in the GTH exercise. he called BR a mafia read. i think this is at least mildly interesting because of the rapid-fire format. if MP is mafia, then this means he consciously chose to GTH-read his team mate as mafia despite having favored her as a "town read" or something close for much of the game prior. it'd seem easier for a mafioso in a rapid-fire scenario to just stick to his 800 rainbows in this situation. it should also be stated though that MP has already seen me try this exercise and knew what to expect.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Not here for more than a few minutes.

I've read the posts now, thankfully (well, not really) didn't take long.

Right now, I'm unsure of what to feel. aether, BR, splints, and TH are all on my radar, but I have a hard time believing this is the mafia team.

aether still refuses to actually provide reads, so hopefully she does so.
BR finally provides reads, but I'm not really convinced they're from a civilian mindset.
splints reads increasingly slippery to me.
TH is still evasive and not explaining much of his train of thought.

MP qualifies his newfound suspicion for BR in this post by asserting BR's claimed suspects are hard to believe. i have no issue with this reasoning because i agreed with it. BR's only "suspects" were the people accusing her, and such blatant OMGUS is hard to take seriously.

MovingPictures07 wrote:GTMH I think I'd rather lynch BR or splints before aether.

important statement. for the BR lynch to develop and overtake the easier aether option, vocal support was needed. TH and i tried, but the timing of this decision from MP was significant i think. it made the BR lynch a genuine possibility because he could support our numbers and thus motivate some fence sitters to join the cause (see: sanmateo). and eventually he did vote for BR (the second to vote for her, placing her in a 2-2 tie with aether).

~~~

there are some interesting points to be addressed here. i don't think MP looks pristine or glorious, but he doesn't really look bad either. i'm not inclined to change my town read right now.

#2221

Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and Roxy

BR didn't have anything to say to or about Roxy.

Roxy wrote:BR - I did think she was defending MP AND throwing a small suspicion Elo's way. I do trust splkints read of her but I would like to give her a chance to get better and respond before I lay a vote down for her.

in a larger post of reads, this was Roxy's Day 2 take on BR. it is at least a distinct expression of suspicion with at least one reason given (along with support lent to splints). it is also a bit non-committal though in that it promises more time -- something that is a kindness but also highly dangerous. another day alive for any mafioso can be a game-losing missed opportunity. so any comments that may facilitate that are a little suspicious at least.

Roxy wrote:BR - hope you are feeling better. And I hope you can find time before lynch end to make a full response to splints and her case. It kinda feels like you are avoiding. Its pingy tbh. I did read the bit about trust/understanding so I am waiting for more. More suspicions and more "you" in the game.

another list of reads on Day 3 with an updated take on BR. the suspicion is expressed a little more assertively this time, and the promise for time is reduced to "waiting for more". this is a step in the right direction for Roxy.

Roxy missed the vote and thus did not have any impact upon its proceedings. that doesn't reflect well, but she cited family business and i am perfectly willing to believe her.

Roxy wrote:Sorry to have missed the vote I had work and family issues to resolve.

splints made her case from the begining - some said she had tunnel vision otherssaid she was not actively pursuing baddies now suddenly she is bussing someone????

Does anyone read my posts about her?? I am sooooo surprised at MP, he knows her as well as me and should know that this is her civ game. I am not liking what he is saying.
Splints has given us our first mafia in a lynch and you all think she is bad after gunning for BR since Day 1!
on anyone who srsly ursues her for lynch.

this came after the BR lynch and is actually about splints, but i think it's relevant. the degree of confidence expressed in this post is extreme, and that is always surprising -- even on Night 3. this is the kind of post that is going to reflect poorly on Roxy no matter what happens with splints, i fear. this issue might be resolvable through meta though: is Roxy typically so assertively confident in her reads as this?

~~~

this doesn't really make me feel better about Roxy. i'd have liked to see a little more content, which isn't to say Roxy hasn't said enough. she has said quite a lot actually. it's just that BR specifically doesn't have much of a place in her post history beyond what i've highlighted here. and the noncommittal air of her expressed suspicion is a little troubling.

#2222

Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and sanmateo

BR had nothing to say to/about sanmateo.

sanmateo wrote:between fingersplints and black rock i would probably vote for the latter, because splints said she'd had bstc with turnip head

but theyre not my main suspects

unless i'm missing something somewhere, sanmateo said nothing at all about BR until Day 3. that's surprising since he has over 130 posts. this quoted post here is one of the first in which he states a preference for lynching BR over splints, but with neither of them as main suspects. had he eventually voted for someone else i might view this as a little problematic, but he didn't as i'll get to shortly.

sanmateo wrote:i feel like given how jay and a couple other players mentioned they thought there was one scum between br and fingersplints, a br town flip would actually lead us to lynch fingersplints almost immediately. i dont like that.

here he's wary of manipulation by the people driving the BR case, including me. i think this reflects well on him, because it's consistent with his stated uneasiness about me and experience playing with me on RYM. i would never expect sanmateo to dive headstrong into something without carefully considering the case and the people pushing it.

sanmateo wrote:gonna vote for black rock to ensure that there isnt a no lynch

hey Syndicateers: what is standard procedure around here when a lynch vote is tied? on RYM it's usually a no lynch, which is what sanmateo was likely referring to here.

i think the post in theory, because it means he was conscious of guns and butter shenanigans driving up the aether vote count and threatening to cause that tie/no lynch result. however it has to be noted that this vote never actually happened. the tally closed before he could place it. i believe him though; i could have seen myself making the same XX:57 versus XX:00 mistake.

~~~

i think sanmateo looks barely okay here. i don't like that he never said anything about BR until Day 3 despite being one of the more active players in the game. so he should talk about that.

#2223

IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER OTHER THAN ALPHABETICAL, HERE IS THE LONG AWAITED AETHER RAINBOW

Bass_the_Clever
G-Man
JaggedJimmyJay
MovingPictures07
sanmateo
Vompatti

birdwithteeth11 / Golden
Dragon D. Luffy
Roxy
TinyBubbles

fingersplints
Turnip Head

I have a personal preference for blue over green

#2224

If Bass_the_Clever is mafia, s/he is a clever mafia.

#2225

Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and TinyBubbles

Spoiler: show

BR was critical of TH for his Day 2 "vote" on Bubbles. this is inherently defensive of Bubbles simultaneously. it could be said that this would be a foolish way for a mafioso to link themselves to a team mate (Bubbles) when the atmosphere of the thread was starting to turn against BR by this point. i think she was more likely to start distancing if not outright ignoring her team. but that's WIFOM so i won't award too many points for it.

Bubbles herself has never acknowledged BR in any post. she voted for Bass very early in Day 3.

~~~

i don't think Bubbles looks great mostly for having said nothing. she has the lowest post count among active players which in itself could be viewed as mildly problematic, but the nothing at all on the only confirmed scum can only be viewed as a negative i think. one is forced to decide whether her behavior can be explained purely by her newness to this game, or rather her newness to the mafia alignment. the latter poses significant challenges for an already quiet player, so i take the notion seriously.

#2226

acrosstheaether wrote:IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER OTHER THAN ALPHABETICAL, HERE IS THE LONG AWAITED AETHER RAINBOW

Bass_the_Clever
G-Man
JaggedJimmyJay
MovingPictures07
sanmateo
Vompatti

birdwithteeth11 / Golden
Dragon D. Luffy
Roxy
TinyBubbles

fingersplints
Turnip Head

I have a personal preference for blue over green

awesome, thanks for the reads. can you share your concerns about these players:

TH
splints
Roxy

#2227

Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and Turnip Head

*Note: CTRL+F for "TH" is a nightmare. i'm calling him Turnip from now on.

Black Rock wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:
Black Rock wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:I want to hear more from BR.
Did I miss something you asked?
Nope. Does your opinion need to be solicited for you to share it? I feel like you're only spending time defending yourself or talking about how you need to catch up. I have no idea where you stand on suspicions.
Well no, the problem is I was in bed for 2 and half days. I fell way behind on this game and I haven't found my groove because of that. I assumed when you wanted to hear "more" from me you were expecting something in particular. I've only had time to defend myself and I haven't caught up. I think I'm going to move forward from here. The suspicions in this game have been up and down and thrown around so eagerly that my head was spinning. I feel like you have a bone to pick with me and yet you're not just coming out and saying it. Is your idea to push just enough to try and back me in a corner before I turn on you? We can always have our dance TH, I do love it so much. It's a good time to make your move, I haven't found my footing yet.

this bit about BR and Turnip "dancing", as in enjoying a rivalry together, bears itself out nicely towards the end of Day 3. Turnip is the second-most prevalent name in BR's post history behind only splints, and it's entirely because of his aggression against her in the phase that saw her lynched. being an external observer of this "rivalry", i can't help but view this as little too chummy for comfort, but MP vouched for it being significant enough to warrant mention.

Black Rock wrote:For my suspicions? I am a little suspicious of Splints and TH. It can be a total No U at this point. They have had lots of time to sow their seeds. The way I'm reading it now is Splints is doing all the accusations and TH is sitting behind her with an extra push. Otherwise I haven't paid much attention to anyone else in the past few real life days. That I can admit is not good.

when i prodded BR for some suspicions late in Day 3, she responded with just Turnip and splints -- the same two players gunning for her the hardest. i see this as a deliberate tactic to narrow her focus, because it's the biggest reason her post history has been so low on insightful content. those two dominate it, leaving no room for her to talk about anyone else -- and thus leave no breadcrumbs about others. and with that in mind, i don't view this as something that reflects well or poorly on Turnip.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 02#p146002 -- larger post in which BR defends herself against Turnip's case.

i think this one reflects decently on Turnip in that BR tries to discredit him in it. she isn't just casting suspicion on him, she is asserting that his ability to generate correct reads is lacking -- which if successful would lessen people's willingness to follow his lead. i don't see that as a productive method of bussing a team mate.

Turnip Head wrote:And you make some good points about BR. I look forward to her response.

Turnip's first acknowledgement of BR's existence was here, in response to my first negative ISO on her. that he planted his flag in my camp here is not troubling because he did plenty of his own legwork later on.

otherwise his content is mostly related to his Day 3 case against her and the ensuing conversation, which all of you just witnessed. he voted for her 5th out of 5. it was still important because it provided cushion over the 3 aether votes with consideration for guns and butter (and Turnip has been more conscious of those variables than anyone).

~~~

i think Turnip looks pretty good here. there's some capacity for bussing, but i don't see it as the more likely scenario right now.

#2228

Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and Vompatti

neither of them has mentioned the other once. BR didn't acknowledge Dom either. Vompatti has been busy fulfilling his enigmatic reputation so this isn't surprising. i won't give him a free pass for goofing around though. he has commented on some players at least, and BR isn't one of them. noted.

#2229

Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and Epignosis

as recommended by Golden, to get a better idea of whether he was mafia or town.

Black Rock wrote:
Epignosis wrote:In case no one sees it, 3J thinks I smell like shit.
To be fair, you often do.

playful and probably meaningless affirmation of fecal stench.

Black Rock wrote:
Golden wrote:I can't speak to Roxy's perspective on me, other than that she has played with me many more times and has seen that my baddie hunting does not always involve me immediately jumping out of a tree naked and bashing someone's head with the golden stick. I doubt I would have been so quick to jump into analysing your POV if it wasn't for the vote.

In fact, this game doesn't have so many people who have played with me more than two or three times. Splints, Roxy, BR, Dom, MP and probably BWT.

JJJ completely missing the overall thrust of our meta conversation just then? Seems to me he has the wrong end of the stick on that convo about meta we had.

People said that about epi in keeler too. I was right on day one. He was lynched on about day 9 or something. "Thats just epi" they said.

@jjj - eloh and epi are married.
I have been one of those who say that and one of those annoyed by others who say that.

BR halfway sorta lends agreement to the notion that "Epi being Epi" is not a good reason to defend his behavior. but she doesn't actually say that, it's just a comment in a vacuum. pseudo-jokey.

Epignosis wrote:
Black Rock wrote:How is Gman cursed already?
His genes?

this was the only time Epi said anything to or about BR.

so all of their content together in this game was of the non-serious or OT variety. Epi was completely focused on DDL and MP throughout Day 1 so it's hard to take much from his ignorance of BR. this doesn't make him look much more suspicious to me, and it definitely doesn't make him look less suspicious.

#2230

interactive analyses CLIFF NOTES

players ranked from least suspicious to most suspicious purely for how i think their interactions with BR reflect on them

G-Man
Turnip Head
MovingPictures07
sanmateo
birdwithteeth11/Golden
Vompatti
Epignosis
Roxy
TinyBubbles
Dragon D. Luffy
fingersplints

still plenty of time for the people at/near the bottom to change my mind. please at least read your own posts if not all of them and tell me where i'm off base.

#2231

Actually sanmateo moves down into the yellow region after more observation and thinking.

fingersplints: what previous users have said about their reads being "slippery", also you know what I feel like re: their vote on me? Easy way out for fingersplints not to vote for BR, while continuing to interrogate BR to make them appear town.

Btw can everyone please let me know their pronouns, I think JJJ/sanmateo/MP07/TH go by he and that's it

#2232

I have no strong feelings one way or another about Roxy atm

#2233

Currently doing my catch up, but I thought a good place to start would be to listen to G-Man and MPs videos.

I decided not to make any decision based on voices. I took only extraneous and potentially irrelevant details into account. In this case, it's the fact that one person paid more attention to the words he was presenting than the other.

G-Man made nice blocks that said G-Man
Sockman wore a t-shirt where the first two words were 'vote no'.

Enough said. I vote no to MP, so G-Man gets the vote.

#2234

Already I can see that some of my reading on from sloonei's death is changing my perspective so I think it is actually possibly useful for me to record my perspective as at Sloonei's death in the thread. I'm sort of complicating it even for myself by trying to take out of the equation anything I've read today, so hopefully it still makes sense - please take it in the context of the fact things will move on. I think this is best because when I started to write my thought processes they felt muddled (like I was trying to get across three days of thinking), so I reverted to this approach.

So, my thoughts as at Sloonei's death were:

Feel bad about:

TH - Still not high on his day one vote for me, I think he could have predicted how easily it could lead to a bandwagon.
TinyBubbles - some things in some of her posts have really set my ping-o-meter going, I'll come back to those in more depth unless the rest of my day three read changes my mind about her.
Roxy - her choice to defend me so robustly got my attention. I'm used to people saying 'that just seems like normal golden to me' but I'm not used to people vouching for me hard, especially on day one.

Feel good about:

JJJ - Sees the game a very similar way to me (I don't mean this specific game, rather his perceptions of mafia and civilian thinking), albeit that he is a lot less lazy about analysing people to see if they match it. This game or any game, I've never seen a baddie work this hard on analysis.
DDL - the one person in my lynch train I felt was genuine about it.
(and, like I said already, I was all in on BR being civ, to the extent that when I watched JJJ's 'gut read' exercise in real time, I was really shocked that everyone saw BR as bad).

#2235

I wouldnl't mind meaningful interactions between myself.

#2236

After that, I read the stuff around the lynch and after the lynch, which didn't give me too much more insight, except I did start to wonder if splints and roxy might be teammates.

Also, I tend to believe vote order tells the truth (at least it's better than just gut) and it's hard to see how any of the people in the BR lynch could be bad based on vote timings unless there was deliberate bussing going on (by the way, bussing is a new way of describing it for me, but I have assumed we mean throwing under the bus?) At this point I think the best way to analyse the lynch is, can we see evidence that there would be bussing? I'm going to be keeping that in mind when I read back that day.

And JJJ, could you describe your method for looking for interactions (I mean technically speaking, because it seems like a big trawl)? I would like to do one of those of BR/you. I'm not particularly expecting to see anything, but I think it is not appropriate that you get a pass from the analysis because you do the analysis. Also, your interactive cliff notes list you made has 11 people (including dead epi) when there are 14 alive (including yourself but excluding dead epi) so an updated one when you are more awake would be good.

And, I've started reading back day three but it's getting late here and I'm not going to finish it tonight or do a full analysis, so I thought I'd just do the one thing that has particularly caught my eye in the next post.

linki @ vomps - I wouldn't mind anything you do that is meaningful. I've been wondering, were you on RM by another name? You remind me of Wazzipi...

#2237

So the one thing I noticed so far was this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:acrosstheaether

1.) i already mentioned this, and she already responded (the second and third of her quoted posts above). i alluded to a post she made in a recent RYM game which is essentially the complete opposite of this. i've found it:

acrosstheaether wrote: January 10, 2015
Keep in mind that t_h having been a rogue does not mean that scum would not have viewed him as town. Voters for a lynch which flipped rogue this early in the game should be viewed through the same lens as those for a lynch which flipped town.
https://rateyourmusic.com/board_message ... msg5634541

so i am a little skeptical that she genuinely holds this perspective even considering the way she qualified it in her explanation. i don't think those variables matter in this context.

JJJ, I read it from the context, but I didn't notice you say it outright. You know aether was civilian in that game, right?

Because this, for me, is my number one sign of baddies. Intellectual dishonesty. To me the most reliable place to catch a baddie is when they espouse a perspective that they don't and wouldn't really believe in if they were free to play their natural game. I don't think people fundamentally change their view on how the game of mafia should be read (unless there is a specific bad experience where you feel your perspective has failed you).

It sits for me as an alternate theory to the fingersplints/roxy one because I don't think it makes sense at all for both to be true (splints listing two teammates as her two biggest suspects? Nah). I'm hoping my read through will give me a strong feeling that one is more likely than the other. As of right now, aether's change in perspective on rogue hunting seems less genuine.

And really, it was THIS post you have to thank for me wanting to work back through my thinking in the thread, because right now where I am sitting is that I could see aether being bad, or I could see splints/roxy being a baddie team, but these perspectives are sort of at odds with each other, hopefully it's clear how I got there.

#2238

Why wouldn't those variables matter? Explain???

#2239

@Golden have you considered that either fingersplints or Roxy could be baddies, not with each other but with someone else? I'm thinking a scum team of Epi, Black Rock, fingersplints and TH.

#2240

Golden wrote:And JJJ, could you describe your method for looking for interactions (I mean technically speaking, because it seems like a big trawl)? I would like to do one of those of BR/you. I'm not particularly expecting to see anything, but I think it is not appropriate that you get a pass from the analysis because you do the analysis. Also, your interactive cliff notes list you made has 11 people (including dead epi) when there are 14 alive (including yourself but excluding dead epi) so an updated one when you are more awake would be good.

Heh i was exhausted by the time i finished and must have missed two of my own posts. I think Bass looked decent and aether looked iffy. I'll try to place them properly when i'm not on my phone.

My method is simple: i just open up the post filters (ISOs) of Black Rock and whoever is being analyzed. In BR's, i CTRL+F all of the commonly used nomenclature i think of to isolate relevant posts. For me i would recommend "JJJ", "Jay", and "Jimmy". Then in MY posts, look for "Black Rock" and "BR".

I apologize in advance for the workload. One of the advantages i often enjoy in games is that i can do these analyses without threat of being assessed the same way (nobody wants to deal with so many huge posts). So i'm glad you have the mind to put me to the test. It's necessary.

#2241

Separately re: aether and the past game post i referenced. Yes i know she was town -- i was calling her suspicious for espousing the opposite perspective in this game. It's a highly specific meta and it may have contextual barriers to be examined (open setup vs closed -- in the game i referenced nobody knew about the rogue until he died).

#2242

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:DDL had a busy Day 1. he found time to talk about most players in the game and thankfully BR was no exception. in this post he doesn't really offer a lean on BR, but i won't fault him for that yet. on Day 1 BR was a tough read for most people myself included. the bit i highlighted in yellow interests me because of the candor of the criticism -- i think it's a bit odd for a brand new player in a foreign mafia environment to say something like this about the style of one of the regulars. i don't think DDL meant to be mean or anything, but it'd be groovy if he could explain what he meant here. he found the playstyle non-productive but also honest-seeming. so that's an interesting pair of phrases to throw into a first read of a confirmed mafioso.

lol I barely remember why I said that at this point.

<checks BR's posts>

Ok, I guess I just had a gut feeling that BR was honest. Her explanations felt legit to me. But at the same time, I was aware she wasn't being much helpful in the game. So that's what I mean by not productive.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:despite his growing appreciation for the BR case, he held strong to his earlier stated desires to lynch aether. soon after this post, he voted for aether instead of BR. that vote put aether in the lead 2-1, and at the time i thought it might generate the momentum needed to lynch aether instead. so on that front, i don't like this vote. the degree of suspicion which can be heaped on DDL for this is dependent upon aether's alignment perhaps, but when we don't know that information this equates to negative marks from me.

DDL had a chance to really solidify himself with this vote and did not come through.

Well, though luck. Turns out solidifying myself isn't my first goal when choosing who to vote for. It's finding mafia. If I think aether is more likely to be mafia than BR, I will vote for her despite the rest of town thinking the contrary.

And yes, I posted earlier in an attempt to push the bandwagon. I think that's more effective than dropping your posts in the last hour and pretending you helped.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:DDL explains his looming aether vote here. he "agrees BR looks like a baddie", but still placed his vote on the player who "had all the time to look like a townie and failed". i think there's a big difference between "looks like a baddie" and "doesn't look like a townie", and it makes a lot more sense to place one's vote according to the former description. the entire concern with an aether lynch was that she'd represent the low-hanging fruit (because of her failure to promote herself, which is not an uncommon townie fault). this discrepancy is a problem for me. DDL should talk about it.

~~~

i think DDL said a lot of the right things about BR, particularly during the EOD3 scenario leading to her lynch. but he did not do the right things, which is more important. so he looks worse than he did before to me.

You're having a problem with interpretation here. I did not say "doesn't look like town". I said "failed spetacularly to look like town". I know this is just semantics, but the later means I had a lot stronger mafia read on aether than the former. And that read, as I've said multiple times before, made her my main suspect for mafia. Not BR.

#2243

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and TinyBubbles

Spoiler: show
Black Rock wrote:You got what you wanted TH, you put me back in the game and made me do work.

Turnip Head wrote:I'm going to go ahead and vote TinyBubbles.
What? Sure, TinyBubbles was working on flawed logic but instead of questioning it you just jump right on a vote? Seems like another easy way out.

Turnip Head wrote:I don't think Elo's bad. Especially her recent reactions read genuinely to me.

I thought TinyBubbles' vote for Elo was sketchy because, if you look back through Bubbles' posts, she was setting up suspicion of Bass and only Bass, but then MP and Jay make one post each talking about Elo being a better option, and Bubbles immediately rolls with that. The line "If you're a civvie Elo I'm so so sorry!" reeks a bit because if Bubbles was really sorry she wouldn't have voted a player she's not suspicious of. And I think it's a little hokey to allude to someone being lynched when you're literally the first person to cast a vote for that person.

That said, I thought I saw one thing in Bubbles' filter that made me think she's on the level and just playing a little loosely. So I guess what I'd like is Bubbles' answer to the following "Why abandon your read on Bass and piggyback onto the suspicion of Jay and MP?" I believe Bubbles mentioned trusting those two, and I don't think they're baddies either atm, but it doesn't mean they're right about everything either.

MP, can you once again lay out why you don't think Elo's thought process can come from a civ perspective? We've both played many games with her, we both know her perspective is not always the same as everyone else's, so I'm curious exactly what you're seeing there. And what happened to your splints' suspicion?
Interesting, especially when paired with this...

fingersplints wrote:Why are you trying to divert suspicion to me TH? I thought we were friends
WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM
BR was critical of TH for his Day 2 "vote" on Bubbles. this is inherently defensive of Bubbles simultaneously. it could be said that this would be a foolish way for a mafioso to link themselves to a team mate (Bubbles) when the atmosphere of the thread was starting to turn against BR by this point. i think she was more likely to start distancing if not outright ignoring her team. but that's WIFOM so i won't award too many points for it.

Bubbles herself has never acknowledged BR in any post. she voted for Bass very early in Day 3.

~~~

i don't think Bubbles looks great mostly for having said nothing. she has the lowest post count among active players which in itself could be viewed as mildly problematic, but the nothing at all on the only confirmed scum can only be viewed as a negative i think. one is forced to decide whether her behavior can be explained purely by her newness to this game, or rather her newness to the mafia alignment. the latter poses significant challenges for an already quiet player, so i take the notion seriously.

It's definitely newness to the game! I can barely keep up with the posts, had no concrete opinion on BlackRock thats why I didnt mention him. Super glad he ended up being a baddie lol, though of course can't take any credit for it. I have never played a game like this before except once and in general, I'm not used to disbelieving what people write on the internet. It's a bit of a culture shock to think everyone of you could have an ulterior motive.

Anyway golden what have I said that's pinging you?? Kind of disappointed tbh, thought you had my back

unless golden 2.0 is golden ressurected to the dark side.. say it ain't so, dear golden. I thought your intuition was pretty accurate?

#2244

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Meaningful interactions between/about Black Rock and G-Man

i'm going to actually analyze this man. he shouldn't be left out anymore! he is trying to be a part of the game! but it's going to involve lots of spoilers.

Black Rock wrote:How is Gman cursed already?
hey look! there's a BR post about a player i am analyzing! if G-Man is town then he was a very easy target on Day 1. so this post could work in his favor.

Spoiler: show
G-Man wrote:

G-Man provided reads on every player on Day 2. isn't that awesome? so many people didn't do this, but the guy posting nothing but pictures did. he was admittedly on the fence about BR. this won't be a great thing if it's a trend. so we'll see...

Spoiler: show
G-Man wrote:

he provided another full reads list on Day 3 (seriously, this guy is my favorite). and he listed BR among his baddie suspects. super good!

Spoiler: show
G-Man wrote:

he eventually pledged that his vote was likely going to land on BR. so did it?

Spoiler: show
G-Man wrote:

it did indeed. G-Man liked TH's case and dropped the very first vote on BR. it was important too because aether had gotten the early vote and it could have easily mounted against her had someone not gotten the ball rolling on BR.

~~~

G-Man might be my top town read right now tbh.

Spoiler: show

#2245

To be fair there are a handful of players I could see having targets on their backs right now. That's a side effect of sucessfully lynching mafia.

#2246

#2247

Dead players can win this game. If my reads "paint targets" for the mafia, then i am literally dictating their kills for them. A wonderful strategic advantage.

But i don't think any targets are being painted.

#2248

Well, the way I see mafia would want to kill the players who are less likely to be lynched (and the two previous kills are consistent with that). So the people who are in danger of being killed are the ones who are being the most sucessful at convincing others they're town.

#2249

acrosstheaether wrote:Actually sanmateo moves down into the yellow region after more observation and thinking.

why tho

#2250

acrosstheaether wrote:@Golden have you considered that either fingersplints or Roxy could be baddies, not with each other but with someone else? I'm thinking a scum team of Epi, Black Rock, fingersplints and TH.

do you think epi being scum is a foregone conclusion?

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

2014 Sockys
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2014 Sockys
2015 Sockys
Miscellaneous

Who killed our talkative teddy??