Watchmen [ENDGAME]

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Who deserves justice?

Poll ended at Mon Aug 03, 2015 7:42 pm

Dragon D. Luffy
3
30%
Made
0
No votes
Ricochet
0
No votes
Russtifinko
1
10%
Cancer (The Host, the Non, the Dead)
6
60%
 
Total votes: 10
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2301

Post by G-Man »

Why Made May Be The One To Lynch:

-In Economics, Golden the Coward ;) benefited heavily from subbing in for a baddie player that left a voting history with a lot of gaps in it. We sorted out that the silencing patterns indicated that Made was not an Inmate but a voting gap provides a lot of cover for an Indie role too.

-We gave so much time and leeway for both TinyBubbles and Made to catch up that now there is really no time for Made to prove himself. We're all out of Inmates and there's very little of his posting and tone to look at to reach a truly informed opinion on him. He could be using his status as a total guess to his advantage. We probably would all rather vote for someone tomorrow based on more data and observation than what we've got on Made. It's very difficult to try to reconcile behavior between two (or in this case, three) different people.

-What he has posted has been very sensible and favorable- exactly how an Indie role needs to perform at this stage of the game.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2302

Post by G-Man »

Why MetalMarsh89 May Be The One To Lynch:

-MM89 is a tough egg to crack in general, so he may be using his oddball meta as cover for necessary oddball Indie behavior. As an Indie, you sometimes have to do odd things. Unless he gets on the trail of a baddie early or someone holds a vendetta against him (or unless he's killed for the lulz), he's a prime player to be kept around by a baddie team because he will usually look suspicious enough to merit keeping around for a mislynch.

-MM89 seems to have a track record of voting for himself, which weirds some people out. His Day 2 self-vote could have either been playing for the WIFOM (no baddie or indie would do such a thing!) or, as an Indie, he realized his chances were slim and he would look worse for voting someone else who he hadn't expressed much or any suspicion of. He may also have been voting himself because the odds were already stacked against him. Day 2 was weird though.

-He stays away from voting for people that ended up getting lynched. Two of his votes were the only vote for a player that day. He never talked about avoiding Rorschach's list until Day 7. Perhaps that is what he was going for all along. An Indie role would see that Rorschach is going to have his hands full as it is trying to dispatch other player on his hit list. Why put yourself on that list if it can be avoided? Perhaps he is waiting for confirmation or a strong sign that Rorschach is dead before voting majority.

-He's played a weird but safe game for the most part. He hasn't gone after anyone hard core and he's avoided taking too bold a stance on anything. In other words, he's playing this one just a hair to the suspicious side of straight up the middle.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2303

Post by G-Man »

Why Ricochet May Be The One To Lynch:

-He's been talking the same kind of sense that got Long Con and DH killed, positioning him on the civvie side of everyone's suspiciometers.

-Until LoRab's lynch, he hadn't been part of a majority vote. Perhaps he was ducking Rorschach until reasonably certain he was out of play?

-He hasn't really said or done anything all game that has raised anyone's alarm bells.

-He's going for the "but he looks too clean to be a threat" approach.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2304

Post by G-Man »

Why Russtifinko May Be The One To Lynch:

-He's basically a Ricochet-lite this game. He's taken a few more stances, proposed a few more theories, and been just aggressive/suspicious enough to avoid the Inmates' crosshairs.

-He too managed to avoid Rorschach's list until Day 7.

-He had been discussed by one or two players as a suspicious character, giving him the right balance to play all but right up the middle all game long.

-He's got civvie cred for voting for two out of the three Inmates but does that cred matter anymore now that it's Indie season?

-He's got enough of a theory worked up on one or two players to get him through to the end via mislynches (assuming he can't use a NK).
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2305

Post by G-Man »

Why I Am NOT The One To Lynch:

-While I have been intentionally cryptic and mysterious at times, I have been extremely honest when need be.

-My gut call on needing to protect DH from being lynched on Day 3 was 100% correct.

-If you haven't noticed my signature, my spreadsheet was 100% right on Elohcin not being an Inmate.

-My gut call (albeit it too late) on LoRab Day 7 was 100% right.

-While I admitted to trying to avoid Rorschach's list for much of the game, I took a stand and put myself out there by voting for MP07 Day 6.

-I've made myself a little too suspicious and visible to have any hopes of winning as an Indie. (Yes, I realize that is WIFOM but at this point, we're down to 'who's WIFOM is the least believable?')
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2306

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

@G-Man: I wasn't lynched in economics. I was night killed.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2307

Post by G-Man »

Also, I posted all this now because the wife and I are taking our daughter to ZooAmerica tomorrow with my in-laws. There's no guarantee that I'll be back by the deadline, so I'll probably have to vote early tomorrow morning.


linki: Really? I could have sworn we lynched you. I know I was itching to for most of the game. Anyway, the rest still stands. I'm throwing theories out there.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2308

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Also those lists you're making remind me a lot of a similar thing Golden 2.0 did by the end of Economics. Ofc this is not evidence, but it's interesting.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 8]

#2309

Post by Ricochet »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:^An irrational fear as it can get, considering Rorschach, if alive, can only kill you on N10, a Night we very likely won't reach, if we either lynch BF and Moloch within the next two-three Days or end up in lylo in D10 at the latest. Plus Rorschach, who hasn't made a move to kill in two consecutive Nights since he started having sinners, surely has to be alive and simply sleeping on the job.
So what? If we were wrong, no sense adding an extra name to Rorschach's list of players he needs dead to win.

What makes you think he is alive?
That second sentence was meant to be sarcastic, but I guess I didn't word it perfectly. Nothing makes me think he's alive, based on his inactivity.

So you're saying you're just looking out for his win con, instead of fearing ending up on the list and getting killed. That's fine, but why? We currently need one more baddie lynch to win the game. He needs four out the six remaining players dead including or not Moloch, if he's among the four sinners, in order to win the game. It's a detrimental mentality to worry about Rorschach's win con, if you're a civ and you're one correct lynch away from winning.

If Moloch was recruitable by the Inmates (which doesn't make much sense, canon-wise, but could be a trait of Epig games - think Rahab/Judas in Biblical [although that was more an example of a corruptible civ]), I'm looking at you for defending Cookie and never voting or suspecting the other Inmates either. :eye:
Cookie was winning the lynch 3-1. 2 players appeared to be silenced, leaving me with the only vote left. Give me a reason why my vote would have been better off being put on Cookie than someone else.

As for the Inmates, I love me a good conspiracy theory, but in this case, everyone has a win condition that requires Moloch to be dead (with the exception of Moloch's win con). I don't think there's anything to support your theory.
Well if I'd want to be pedantic, I'd argue that players recruited / converted / corrupted by the mafia are technically always in a faction that the mafia have to eliminate to achieve their win con and it hardly changes the dynamic of that recruited going over to the mafia side. Like in Biblical, for instance: Judas was no less part of the Righteous group that the Heathens needed to kill, until he got recruited. If the Heathens would have targeted him with a kill before he found them, he probably would have died; but he found them first, so he switched to their side.

But I'll agree I got carried away this morning by the talk that Moloch might have been recruited, forgetting that the Inmates also needed him dead. My bad.

As for a reason to vote Cookie, I never asked for that. You not voting Cookie is consistent with you never having a read of that (if this is a genuine or subtly constructed consistency is a different issue...). I only complained about your reason for not voting her being to avoid Rorschach's wrath, pointing out that the game might end before he can possibly target you with a kill, two Nights from now, and that he might be dead because of showing no prior activity. Then you denied that him killing you was your concern, but rather that you didn't want to see his win con get aggravated, to which I was bemused that it's such an important thing to focus on.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2310

Post by G-Man »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Also those lists you're making remind me a lot of a similar thing Golden 2.0 did by the end of Economics. Ofc this is not evidence, but it's interesting.
You're absolutely right- it's not evidence. It is pure theory. I did a lot of it toward the end of Economics too. My tin foil theories just came in pictures. :P
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2311

Post by Ricochet »

G-Man wrote:Why Ricochet May Be The One To Lynch:

-He's been talking the same kind of sense that got Long Con and DH killed, positioning him on the civvie side of everyone's suspiciometers.
Not sure what you mean here. LC got killed for putting himself on the top of his rainbow list - at least that's a cheeky theory that was launched right after; I can't say, otherwise, how civvie he looked to others. DH got mislynched.

-Until LoRab's lynch, he hadn't been part of a majority vote. Perhaps he was ducking Rorschach until reasonably certain he was out of play?
Unlike you and MM, I never once claimed that I fear Rorschach's wrath and am deliberately avoiding majority votes. My LoRab and Eloh votes over the course of the game are unfortunate in light of their flip, but consistent with how much I thought their gameplay indicated baddieness.

-He hasn't really said or done anything all game that has raised anyone's alarm bells.
My DDL vote (or, from a different perspective, my vote not adding to the three-way tie between Cookie, LoRab and MP) made Russ and DDL himself suspicious. DDL then made an ISO on me that he concluded it was neutral. Except for a few remarks from some players getting good vibes from, I don't recall ever being top civ read in anyone's list.

-He's going for the "but he looks too clean to be a threat" approach.
Depending on the definition of clean, my vote record certainly isn't so; as for gameplay, I'm not "going for" anything with what I do, I am civ and have invested in the game the same way I always do (being active, analysing, covering all grounds and such). Depending on the definition of threat, I am still convinced I'm more of a threat to the baddies and that, if night kills will still take course, I might end up as among the last victims of the game for my "services".
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2312

Post by Marmot »

I believe I know who Moloch is, so I have a proposition to make to Moloch. A bargain, if you will:

Moloch: If you have the ability to nightkill, I request that you nightkill me tonight.

Me: In return, I will not reveal who I believe you are.



I suppose this isn't so much a bargain as blackmail, but I have discovered a clue. If I am still alive tomorrow (and someone else is nightkilled), I will do everything in my power to get you lynched Moloch. The floor is yours.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2313

Post by Made »

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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2314

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Really, MM? I was expecting the Comedian to be someone more... civ looking.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2315

Post by Ricochet »

So the days of rehearsals, combined with a slow recovery from a cold, are draining my activity and stamina, making me want to go to sleep at 11pm each night, which is just ridiculous. I'll attempt below a profiling of Moloch and potential candidates - either for posterity or for the following Day.

Moloch (1)
???
Win Con: Last man standing...maybe. - The "maybe" part had me thinking of recruiting/corrupting another player in order to form an indy team, although there is nothing in the canon to indicate such a thing. The variation to this is that Moloch himself could get recruited or join the mafia, but this theory is currently disputed by the fact that Inmates needed him dead as well. The "LMS" part would mean normally imply SK needing to survive until a final shootout, but since he hasn't killed so far, he might either be dormant or not really a SK.

Edgar Jacobi / Moloch the Mystic
*Secrets* - Current theories: a. Manipulation methods. b. Kill inheritance after mafia wipe-out. c. Searching for recruitement/in order to get recruited. d. Vanilla LMS needing to survive the game unharmed e. Vanilla altogether, last boss is actually someone else/from the Watchmen* e. Possible one NK survival (considering N5-N6 kills likely bounced) f. Possible invulnerability to NKs (Judge Doom design gambit)

*my issues with this is that the only way I'd imagine the Host designing this would be by making a civ/Watchmen recruitable/corruptible. Ozymandias is the biggest candidate, due to the comic development. But it would make no sense, canon-wise, for Moloch/Inmates to manipulate him and not the other way around. A civ/Watchmen turning to the dark side on its own doesn't sound like something Epig would without any subtle hinting - at least, that's my view on this.

Potential motives for fitting the Moloch profile (I'm going to actually list this in order of my suspects, from most to least)

DDL - Reverse psychology - blending as an active, invested hunter among the active, invested hunters. Fuckton of mislynches because he is the sole indy, clueless to actual alignments of every person he makes a case for - but still benefits from the field getting way more reduced through mislynches than by catching baddies. DH possibly reading his alignment and planting the info. Stuff G-Man said also ringing true (except for the Economics comparison, which I can't comment upon, since I didn't play).

MM - Survivalist tactic. Intentional freelance, oddball player (without countless meta and WIFOM to make him hard to read), with the right balance of catching head and unreadability to avoid lynches and be kept in the game by the Mafia. Voting record that doesn't go in any direction (no mislynches, no baddies caught). Safe, hardly confrontational, sometimes detached gameplay.

G-Man - More like Question Mark Man. Could have potentially embraced early heat relying that it'll defuse afterwards (players' indecision about him being too strong, "it was all a prank" tactics etc.) and that turning more active and invested will keep him in a comfy spot. Good reads against several player being mislynched enough to get him some cred, bad reads against other players enough to assure him that he'd be kept in the game by the Mafia. A couple non-commital, sideline votes (under the Rorschach motivation) to further not mess with any faction (or rather generate a bit more heat, but of the same kind that won't prove threatening). [As a side note, I have him in mind for a couple of civ roles, which probably detracts me a bit from suspecting him more.]

Bass/TB/Made - Individual tactics, on which each subbing player could have build upon. Bass starting with a strong civ D1 presence and gut read, then slipping in the shadows. TB intentionally slacking off. Made changing the dynamic right away and being inquisitive and contributive not to blip on anyone's radar. This is pretty weak sauce, I'll admit, but I'm just throwing it in as a possible tactic. My thoughts haven't changed about this trio's flipping: in case he is the indie, I don't find that it was an ideal game in any way to track him down.

Russ - Maybe a mix tactic of laying low early on, then changing gears and gaining enough cred or neutral reads to last him, but otherwise, I can't really profile him that well. Still under "if he's bad, color me duped".

linki: olol
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2316

Post by Ricochet »

Anyway, I'm going to bed. See you D9 or adieu.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2317

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Seeing Ricochet defend himself against G-Man's post, I realize I should probably do the same.
G-Man wrote:Why Dragon Might Be The One To Lynch:

1- He's been dead wrong about everyone he's vote for except for Sloonei on Day 1.

2- His style in Economics contributed to continued suspicion of him, eventually leading to his mislynch. He also got curb-stomped as an obvious baddie in Guess Who. If he was given an Indie role this game, he would certainly approach the game differently. His confidence suggests that he is a very smart person and player of the game. Having no reason to doubt either, Dragon is the kind of person who learns from his mistakes. Having made a few, he's bound to have taken his game up a notch or two.

3- Elohcin said early on that she felt that Dragon was legit because he seemed more relaxed than the Dragon she observed while hosting him in Guess Who. At least one or two others seemed to agree that Dragon seemed calmer and more poised this go around. Perhaps that's because he has to rely on only himself to get that winner's badge.

4- He's kept himself just suspicious enough to merit the Inmates keeping him around for a non-Inmate lynch. He benefited from his own misguided hunting because the Inmates never felt threatened by him.

5- Several players have expressed suspicion of him before or as they were on their way out.
1- Yes, I was. I'll be the first to admit my baddie hunting in this game has been atrocious.

But I've never seen a case where this argument actually helped someone catch a baddie, though. The guy who misses every lynch, from my experience, has as much chance of being civ than anyone else. Looking at how suspicions change and votes are made tends to be a better way to find baddies, instead of simply measuring the accuracy of the player as a baddie hunter.

2- This one is pure speculation and doesn't necessarily indicate alignment. If I'm am town I might change my style too. If I'm a bad I might not. I'm not even sure if what made me get lynched in Guess Who was my overall style, it might be just some mistakes I shouldn't have made, like that disastrous argument I had with you on d2.

3- Speculation too. You don't know enough about my indie game for this to be an actual evidence. Not even I do, because I've never been alone as mafia before, except for one instance where I had already been outed by a cop and kept surviving lynches because of abilities, so it was a completely atypical game.

4- This is wrong, even though I can't prove it. If I was seen by the inmates as not a threat, it's because my baddie hunting in this game was unsuccessful, and that wasn't intentional from my part. Besides, considering there were two nights where the baddies failed to kill for some reason, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they had the intent to kill me in those nights and failed for some reason.

5- This one is a known fallacy (I forgot the name of it). But the point is, a fact doesn't become true just because more people believe in it, it just means more people are wrong. Sure, you could say the masses have a tendency to make right decisions, but in that case you should vote me because YOU believe I'm mafia, and hope the result is positive, not simply vote because everyone else suspects me as mafia.

And yes, some of those answers contain big doses of WIFOM, but my point was to argue that your points don't really indicate Ithat 'm a baddie.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2318

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

I've just been given my role PM at a game I recently signed up for and turns out I have 14 abilities.

My head hurts from even trying to read them.

Help.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2319

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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2320

Post by Made »

Metalmarsh89 wrote: If I am still alive tomorrow (and someone else is nightkilled), I will do everything in my power to get you lynched Moloch. The floor is yours.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2321

Post by G-Man »

Fun game, Epi. It was a rough start for me but I had fun down the stretch. Go everyone who didn't kill me!
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2322

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Really, G-Man? He was my number 1 vote for today.

Spill the beans, MM.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2323

Post by Made »

Damn it guys, I have to go to work tomorrow at 6...say words.... Gonna raimbow list because this iteration of Bubblebassade hasn't clearly shown who s/he trust.



before this day started (Trusted to least trusted)
Gman
MM
Russ
Rico
DDL

After this day started and GM died, and MM asked to be night killed. (least trusted to probably not the most sketch person on the planet.)
MM- To me it seems like a total bluff last night. I think he killed G-man knowing there would be a kill tonight and tried to hide under a "night kill me or suffer card" The fact that this bluff of his includes an if there is no night kill tonight, clause makes me even more sus. IF no one would of died last night, would you had told us who Moloch was?
RICO- Where are you swaying?
DDL- Why was Gman your number one pull?
Russ- What are you thinking right now?
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2324

Post by Made »

IF someone would like to do work for me, read through MM, and see if he was incredibly outspoken during nights previous. In the mean time, i will read watchman.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2325

Post by Ricochet »

RIP G-Man. :sigh: I wonder if we'll hear from Bernard from now on, because that's who I had in mind that G-Man could be (based on Bernard's writing style). Anyway, contrary to what Bernard said, I am definitely not playing anyone and am not the player you should worry about.
Ricochet wrote:Made's post are getting more and more confusing.
Made wrote:Damn it guys, I have to go to work tomorrow at 6...say words.... Gonna raimbow list because this iteration of Bubblebassade hasn't clearly shown who s/he trust.

before this day started (Trusted to least trusted)
Gman
MM
Russ
Rico
DDL

After this day started and GM died, and MM asked to be night killed. (least trusted to probably not the most sketch person on the planet.)
MM- To me it seems like a total bluff last night. I think he killed G-man knowing there would be a kill tonight and tried to hide under a "night kill me or suffer card" The fact that this bluff of his includes an if there is no night kill tonight, clause makes me even more sus. IF no one would of died last night, would you had told us who Moloch was?
RICO- Where are you swaying?
DDL- Why was Gman your number one pull?
Russ- What are you thinking right now?
So are you trusting DDL and me the least or is it the other way around, since you suss MM heavily? :confused:
Made wrote:IF someone would like to do work for me, read through MM, and see if he was incredibly outspoken during nights previous. In the mean time, i will read watchman.
Are you looking for clues in the comic? If not, can't you postpone that until tomorrow or Monday at the latest (depending when the game ends) and focus on the game? I'd say MM was more talkative the past three or so Nights than previously, yeah, mostly talking about some mechanics, role abilities, saying at one point that I look to him the most suspicious (which later influenced Russ and DDL to take a closer look at me), rebuttals to me on his D8 vote and such. Also, the ISOs the past Nights are kinda screwed, because everyone constantly replied or quoted posts with [Day] in the title, so it shows [Day 7] instead of [Night 7] and so on.

Night 7 you said you made up your mind who to pursue or something... Was that Cookie, since you voted her the next Day? If not, who?

I'm starting rehearsals in an hour and then the first session of the masterclass. Be back in the evening.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2326

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

I just noticed Ricochet's profile says he's from Nauru and I'm mesmerized at the sheer improbability of meeting someone from that country in the internet.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2327

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Made wrote:DDL- Why was Gman your number one pull?
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 88#p161188

I'd say Moloch probably saved G-Man from a mislynch by killing him. At least I was very inclined to vote him.

Now I have no idea who to vote for anymore. I'm waiting for MM's post to decide on how to procceed.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2328

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Inb4 Moloch is a jester and wants tobe lynched.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 8]

#2329

Post by Marmot »

Made wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote: If I am still alive tomorrow (and someone else is nightkilled), I will do everything in my power to get you lynched Moloch. The floor is yours.
Talk.
I thought it was G-Man. Nobody was nightkilled Night 6 (but Big Figure silenced someone). G-Man was silenced Night 7 for the Day 9 phase. Cookie also voted for G-Man the same day, meaning she silenced him with the intent of getting him lynched. Then, G-Man proposed that Moloch has a night protection. I thought this all added up to G-Man being Moloch.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2330

Post by Marmot »

EWBOP: G-Man was silenced Night 7 for the Day 8 phase.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2331

Post by Russtifinko »

Holy cow, what a weird NK. GMan was at the top of my list for today.

Posting from phone - I'm now getting ready for the wedding where I'll be best man. Sucks to not be around during such an intense phase.

I'm going to go ahead and vote MM now because I likely won't make it on later. As someone mentioned, his voting record is somewhat spotty. More importantly for me, he's working very hard to avoid a probably dead Rorschach, which an LMS arguably has more incentive to do than a civ, and his general tone has seemed a bit more indie-ish to me. I can't really put my finger on why, and I think it was more true a few days ago than now, but he's still my best guess

Again, sorry to not be more involved today. Good luck guys. If we're still playing and I'm still alive on Monday, I will be around all day
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2332

Post by Russtifinko »

I'll also say I'm glad to see signs of baddie hunting from Made. I know he came in in a rough spot being so late. I had felt pretty good about Bass, but the continuous silence from that role due to the double replacement was making me edgy. Made is starting to allay that for me a bit.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2333

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Yeah MM is the strongest baddie read I have right now. All the other three would need to have played a very strong game to be bad.

The soft Comedian claim makes me doubt it too. I think it would be a somewhat risky play, since a comedian flip, or the comedian being alive, or someone knowing his role, could spell insta-death for MM. Then again, the probability of the comedian being dead for a long time is pretty high. For all we know, he could be llama. And MM could have made a gambit on that possibility, knowing he was pretty high on everyone's scumlists so he needed a way to avoid the lynch.

If he is Moloch, he might have killed G-Man in order to avoid giving us an useful name (which would make us lynch MM on D10 after that name flipped town on D9).

If he is the comedian though, the play from yesterday is easily explained as a desperate play from someone whose chances of fulfilling his wincon are near zero at this point. I wonder why the real Moloch didn't bite it though, I'd be afraid of MM having actual info if I were him.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2334

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

The thing that doubts MM being the comedian the most is that his game has been suboptimal for someone trying to get night killed. He has made almost no effort to look like a civ whatsoever. His game makes more sense as one of a regular civ (who would be actively trying to avoid NKs), or as a mafioso (self-explanatory) than of someone who would want to look supatown.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2335

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

makes me doubt*

God I make so many grammar errors when I'm typing fast.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2336

Post by Marmot »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Yeah MM is the strongest baddie read I have right now. All the other three would need to have played a very strong game to be bad.

The soft Comedian claim makes me doubt it too. I think it would be a somewhat risky play, since a comedian flip, or the comedian being alive, or someone knowing his role, could spell insta-death for MM. Then again, the probability of the comedian being dead for a long time is pretty high. For all we know, he could be llama. And MM could have made a gambit on that possibility, knowing he was pretty high on everyone's scumlists so he needed a way to avoid the lynch.

If he is Moloch, he might have killed G-Man in order to avoid giving us an useful name (which would make us lynch MM on D10 after that name flipped town on D9).

If he is the comedian though, the play from yesterday is easily explained as a desperate play from someone whose chances of fulfilling his wincon are near zero at this point. I wonder why the real Moloch didn't bite it though, I'd be afraid of MM having actual info if I were him.
The way I see it, it is probably a setup to lynch me today (which so far is working).

This may sound like a weird thing to say, but it is possible that Rorschach is still alive and he's the one who killed G-Man. Maybe I should have put myself on Rorschach's list.

Linki: remember that thing where I said I won something in the Day 0 poll? That was a lie. :mafia:
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2337

Post by Marmot »

I will not be voting Dragon or Made today.

So for me, it comes down to Ricochet or Russti. Probably Rico though.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2338

Post by Marmot »

Oh, and I will not be voting for Metalmarsh89 today either.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2339

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Why Rico, MM?

Honestly I was believing Rico was Bernard, because until last night he was the only living person that had never appeared in Bernard's messages... until he did this night.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2340

Post by Marmot »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Why Rico, MM?

Honestly I was believing Rico was Bernard, because until last night he was the only living person that had never appeared in Bernard's messages... until he did this night.
:huh:

I was thinking you were Bernard after last night's message.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2341

Post by Marmot »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Why Rico, MM?

Honestly I was believing Rico was Bernard, because until last night he was the only living person that had never appeared in Bernard's messages... until he did this night.
There is Ricochet's vote record I pointed out a few days ago. Since I'd pointed that out, he has coincidentally voted for lynched players since that time.

He fits the description of an active baddie-hunter, which I believed Moloch to be.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 8]

#2342

Post by Marmot »

Russtifinko wrote:Holy fuck. I shocked Cookie was bad. Scotty I am glad you were able to convince me, but sorry it was too late for you.

People have brought up how to hunt Moloch. I agree with some analysis posted before, and clearly it seems Moloch would want to try to hunt baddies with the best of them. Then again, I could understand a quieter one too. Ugh I wish I wasn't so busy on Saturday, I think the next lynch will be pretty important
But then there is this very noncommittal post from Russti. His primary thoughts with regards to Moloch is that he agrees with my description, that Moloch would be an active scumhunter (before waffling on the idea). But then Russti votes for me today, who has not been an active scumhunter. I do think I am the easiest lynch target today, and I think everyone would agree with that.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2343

Post by Ricochet »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Why Rico, MM?

Honestly I was believing Rico was Bernard, because until last night he was the only living person that had never appeared in Bernard's messages... until he did this night.
There is Ricochet's vote record I pointed out a few days ago. Since I'd pointed that out, he has coincidentally voted for lynched players since that time.

He fits the description of an active baddie-hunter, which I believed Moloch to be.
Well if it's "coincidentally", why do you make it sound like it's "intentionally"? I reasoned every vote, I didn't simply switch mentalities.

As for the second paragraph, that's quite fine of a reverse psychology suspicion, because I suspect DDL of the same thing, but I'm not Moloch and my active baddie-hunting is just that.

Be back after a shower and dinner, I can't feel my limbs.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2344

Post by Marmot »

G-Man may have been Bernard. That might explain why he bet his mafia reputation on Elohcin being a civilian. Just a thought.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2345

Post by Ricochet »

In fact, why don't you suspect DDL for the same profiling on Moloch you said you look for: "active baddie-hunting"?

linki: I think so, too. The player who sends messages at Night never suspecting himself doesn't strike me a rule. Considering Bernard was very vast in his suspicions, why would he risk being read by never adding himself on the list?
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2346

Post by Marmot »

Ricochet wrote:In fact, why don't you suspect DDL for the same profiling on Moloch you said you look for: "active baddie-hunting"?

linki: I think so, too. The player who sends messages at Night never suspecting himself doesn't strike me a rule. Considering Bernard was very vast in his suspicions, why would he risk being read by never adding himself on the list?
He was my prime suspect until today. Then I thought that he was probably Bernard.

But after his comment that he thought you were Bernard, I guess I will have to re-reconsider. I don't see him assigning a role that he would have to you, especially since he suspected just the other day.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2347

Post by Ricochet »

He supposedly role claimed a while ago (Night 6/Day 7?), did you get anything out of that?
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2348

Post by Marmot »

He did? I must have missed it.

I'll look into it.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2349

Post by Marmot »

I don't see it. :shrug:
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Dragon D. Luffy
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Re: Watchmen [Day 9]

#2350

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:G-Man may have been Bernard. That might explain why he bet his mafia reputation on Elohcin being a civilian. Just a thought.
I love how every theory regarding G-Man's alignment is based on the addumption that he cheated the bet lol
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