Battlestar Galactica Mafia - GAME OVER

#7451

Golden wrote:Contest entries should always be by PM, unless you would like other people to steal your ideas and answers.

I'm sure "LOST" will be accepted as an entry, but whether or not it will win...

how dare you

this show isn't LOST at all

it's called "DADDY ISSUES ISLAND" and any coincidences to any other works are purely coincidental

#7452

Things Glorfindel said to/about Matt:

Spoiler: show

Glorfindel wrote:
sig wrote:@Glorfindel you came in, made a post then poof.

Current thoughts on the game?
So Say We All

Yeah, I thought it was important to check in (without reading the rules carefully first) - nothing like starting the game screwed from your first post...

From what I (skim) read I feel happy so far about Zebs (I wonder if I've developed some skill in reading her now given our rocky start). There's a lot of players here I've not encountered before which is something of a challenge. I thought Matt's remark about the different coloured font in the profiles of our Cylon friends was interesting. I'd not noticed that's til he mentioned it. What if anything that is indicative of I have absolutely no clue. I notice my friend IAWY hasn't posted yet

Oh, and congratulations on the Ambassador thing. To be honest, this site has no more passionate and insistent promoter than you.

Glorfindel wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Glorfindel wrote:So Say We All!

I started to catch up on this thread when I first awoke this morning at 5:30 am and in between inconveniences like meals and work I think I've finally managed to catch up. It's 12:25 pm now and I feel like I want to poke my eyes out I totally understand the passion a lot of us have for these games but those responsible for the last umpteen pages need to take a long hard look at themselves. This kind of behaviour does nothing but discourage those of us who are trying to enjoy and contribute to this insanely complex game.

After 43 pages, I still don't know what the hell is going on and feel I am grasping in the darkness for some point of reference, a northern star if you will. The funny thing is, I don't actually feel disadvantaged by that any longer. After all I have read, I think I'd be MORE concerned right now if I truly thought I knew what was going on and that I had all the answers like a couple of you appear to do. My feelings about some of you have changed and I feel like I understand some of you better than I have before.
Go on.
So Say We All!

Well, as weird as it feels to admit this, this is the first game I've played here where I'm seeing Matt as perfectly rational, reasoned generally making a lot of sense in my judgement. I don't know if I've played with him previously but while I don't think I totally 'got' him early on, I feel a lot more comfortable with Ricochet given his stated views and his insistence on the whole 'commitment and discipline in working together' strategy-wise. I still feel good about Zebs too. Someone mentioned earlier (Sig, I wouldn't mind wagering) that I always see her as Town which is not true. In my first game with her (Star Wars) I knew she was bad from the get go. But I think I'm pretty good (for some reason) in picking her alignment. Even you I suppose to an extent as well. I don't know that you and I have ever really 'hit it off' all that well but despite that, right now I have no burning desire to remove you from the game because yes, at this stage, I do believe that you are Town.

Incidentally, on the topic that was raised earlier on the topic of the 'S' word, I can give you a cast iron guarantee that I NEVER used that word in any Mafia game I have ever played and NEVER will. I personally find it demeaning and derogatory and will never use it in reference to any of my fellow players in these games. Just sayin'...

Glorfindel wrote:Matt: I'm as certain as I can be that you're Town and I don't know what it is but if there IS indeed something fishy going on with this game mechanic, I'm confident you'll work it out

Early in the game Glorfindel was strong in his support of Matt.

Spoiler: show

The support is sustained into Day 4, though with less strong language.

Also, irrelevant to Matt, but "fellow town" strikes again.

Spoiler: show

Honeymoon is over on Day 5, though Glorfindel doesn't outright accuse Matt of anything. He's implying that Matt is lumped into an unnamed suspicious grouping though.

Spoiler: show

I guess all is forgiven on Day 6.

Spoiler: show

Matt voted for Glorfindel on Day 6 and naturally Glorf was displeased. He called it "dodgy", but still not "suspicious". From these interactions I'm kind of getting the feeling that Glorfindel wasn't sure how he should classify Matt as his opponent in the thread after having given him town reads earlier in the game. It looks like he wants to cast suspicion upon Matt but is never quite comfortable doing so, and that would be a good look for Matt.

~~~

Things Matt said to/about Glorfindel:

Spoiler: show

WIFOM.

Spoiler: show

Matt seemed a little perturbed by the early town reads Glorf was handing him.

Spoiler: show

Matt's tune changed some after Glorf got out of the Day 6 lynch. This progressed into a theory of civilian BTSC:

Spoiler: show

It would seem this theory was probably incorrect, but I do think it looks like authentic Matt.

He expanded on this theory here.

~~~

This one isn't super conclusive, but I do think Glorf's treatment of Matt towards the end looks more like a non-team mate relationship.

#7453

A little pressed for time, so here's the basic outline for bea:

Behavioral Observations:
Day 2- Suggests the accuracy of a split/fragmented BTSC baddie team is accurate for game balance when all we had done was lynch a civ-aligned Toaster and this came before Nutella denied having BTSC.

Day 4- Refuses to make amnesty claim; null read on Glorfindel

Day 5- Civ read on Glorfindel and she votes sideways on sig under the guise of giving Wilgy more time to explain himself while not drunk

Day 6- Says she's leaning toward a sig vote but ultimately votes for Glorfindel

Vote Analysis:
-Missed the Day 1 vote
-Day 2 she voted mid-pack sideways on LoRab (lone vote that way) instead of any other multi-vote trains
-Day 3 she votes mid-to-late on Nero, bringing him within 1 vote of LoRab (delay tactic on a suspected civ-aligned?)
-Day 4 makes a safe late vote on LoRab
-Day 5 is a sideways vote on sig (but this isn't very damning at all since we know LC was bad and Wilgy may be civ-aligned)
-Day 6 is a deadline vote for Glorfindel (could be trying to look good for helping lock & confirm Glorf but it was a non-lynch)
-Missed Day 7 vote

If you want to look for teamwork behavior with Nutella, good luck because Nutella died Day 2 and bea missed the Day 1 vote.

If you want to look for teamwork behavior with Glorfindel, save for Day 2, all of her votes are within three votes of Glorfindel (though looking back at the times of said votes is necessary to see how close in time they voted, not just how close they are on the vote list).

Early bea looks worse than recent bea, so this is a little soft. Sokoth might deserve my #2 spot instead of bea looking at all this written out. One thing I come back to is that she feels like a quiet player but she's got a decent post count. Probably because she blitzes us with posts whenever she's around.

#7454

Yup. I've totally got a Crap voting record. And my posting is erratic based on a totally wonky work schedule and trying to squeeze some time in with the hubby.

I'm still not bad. Just a nub player.

#7455

I'm finding these Glorfindel interactions a bit tough to assess, because he really did seem to treat everyone in a pretty consistent manner. I'd appreciate a second opinion on these from anyone who is bored enough.

#7456

Some general listy reads coming as soon as I get dressed. Hubby is pushing me to get moving.

#7457

Things Glorfindel said to/about ObscureAllure:

Spoiler: show

Glorfindel wrote:So Say We All!

OK, so picking up where I left off, it appears the general consensus is that our Mafia Team is approximately six or seven members strong predominantly comprised of Cylons with a human or two thrown in? There's still something about this whole set up that feels fishy to me but for the time being, I suppose...

I'll be limited as far as my time goes tomorrow stuck in interviews most of the day so my posting will remain a little sparse for the time being, sorry... I think I'm up with most of what's going on now so I'll just throw a few thoughts out there:

Ricochet: a number of people have inferred that they are suspicious of him. I'd really like to hear the case against him. Personally, I'm getting nothing but Town vibes from him. I find his enthusiasm for this game to be almost infectious and his reaction to the whole LC Sortie insubordination incident this morning reveals that he is someone who is passionate about teamwork and discipline (qualities that I personally admire). Sure, it could all be calculated and manipulative but I'm just not feeling it.

Zebs: I'd love to hear some of your thoughts on the goings on here - I value your opinions very highly and frankly, we could do with the benefit of your insight.

IAWY: Someone (Epi?) mentioned the possibility of him being the Day 2 default lynch - I'd never be on board with that had he still been playing but I find it strange behaviour for him given my experiences of him in games at other sites.

Epi: Will not be getting my vote.

Silverwolf: Safe Town in my book.

JJJ: I don't honestly know what to think. Like Ricochet, he appears to have his detractors but the case against him as I understand it is based on a perception that he is playing differently from past games? I have no reference point for that so I'll be leaving that one for others to debate.

Matt: I'm as certain as I can be that you're Town and I don't know what it is but if there IS indeed something fishy going on with this game mechanic, I'm confident you'll work it out

I can't say I have any strong feelings against most of the other players that have come under consideration today (e.g. Nutella, ObscureAllure, etc.).

There's still substantial time before the next vote so I'll keep an eye out until then...

He tossed her into a small "no strong feelings" pile right alongside nutella on Day 2.

Spoiler: show

His critique of Matt's mindset came in response to a Matt vote for ObscureAllure, so it was indirectly defensive of her (Day 4).

Spoiler: show

Glorfindel wrote:
Black Rock wrote:My new theory (in my head) is that the Cylon/Human relationship is not so black and white and there will be murderers from both sides. Which means the Mafia team is made up of both. I just don't know which roles.
And then appeared to jump enthusiastically on Admiral Caine's efforts to rid the game of our Cylon friends. I may be corrected on this, but I recall that she was one of the architects of the lynching of both Nutella and LoRab. This all looks rather suspicious to me.

Polo seems to be all over the place to me and the groundswell of support for my lynching has I think been a Godsend for him. It seems that for the first time this past Day phase he's started to take some heat and I notice he's just jumped back on me. I don't trust him one little bit.

Obscure Allure has me very confused. If I'm not misunderstanding him, he's all for Cylon genocide and for everyone to claim - EXCEPT him. He seems (in my opinion) to be alluding to some reason why he alone is exempt and like everyone understands why. I may be silly but I don't understand why...

Glorf expresses confusion over OA's mindset but doesn't provide a "read" of OA stemming from that confusion.

Spoiler: show

Hey look! The only name for which Glorf violated the sacred rules of GTH was ObscureAllure. He called her bad, but he seemed to hate doing so and left a disclaimer that he might want to change his mind later.

I think this should speak volumes about her, but I am not sure what is being spoken. If I put the gun to my head, I think it's suspicious.

Spoiler: show

Glorf accused OA of being one of the people driving the agenda he swore was going to ruin town in this game eventually. I think this is a little curious since OA was and still is among those players who haven't claimed cylon -- something Glorf ought to have appreciated.

Spoiler: show

OA prodded Glorf to state specifically what he suspected her of being and his response is all over the place. That might work in her favor.

~~~

Things ObscureAllure said to/about Glorfindel:

Spoiler: show

Nothing directly about Glorfindel until Day 4, and in this he was lumped into a pile of four suspects.

Spoiler: show

Talking about forcing Glorfindel to claim, suggests putting him in first over Wilgy (Day 6).

Spoiler: show

ObscureAllure wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
ObscureAllure wrote:
DrumBeats wrote:
ObscureAllure wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I'd interject that the concept of Wilgy claim Caprica Six would arise "for no reason" or "all of a sudden", because there are not many original Cylon numbers we could infer to be non-baddie aligned. Maybe Leoben for being linked with Starbuck after a while? That's about it, though. So, with LoRab flipping Anna, who else to take into consideration but a Cylon such as Caprica Six?
Or he could be a bad cylon lying? Let's do the math. How many bad cylons (not Capricia Six) are left compared to the one Capricia Six? The odds are much higher that he's not Six. And that's even if we assume Six isn't bad. We don't know that. Literally every cylon who gets caught being a cylon is going to claim being six. They can't all be six. It's impossible. He's NOT six.
I agree with most of this post. Mathematically speaking, it is doubtful that Wigly is a protown cylon. We likely only have one more, if even that, so how many people are instantly assuming he is that one is frightening. The difference between this and the Epig lynch, is Epig was confirmed to be a protown cylon afterwards, Wigly was not. Wigly could be Six, or even Cavil. We don't know, but we know there is a mathematic likelihood of Wigly flipping scum.

The Bold and Underlined part however, makes me wonder how Obscure is this certain Wigly is not Six. I could see OA flipping Six based on this honestly.
I wasn't claiming, was just aggravated because everyone is like "OMG - he might be a gooooooood cylon!" After three days of ranting how bad he is. If all it takes to stop from getting lynched is to tell everyone that are a good cylon I might... No, I still wouldn't. Lol. But seriously though. He can't be six, he's a bad guy, all of the evidence that people posted for three days says that, and I don't think six is bad. I'm not a cylon, so I'm not six.
That reminds me, what font color is Six listed in again in the opening post? I can't recall.
No clue - go look if you want to know?

Ok so let me just point out the obvious here. There is one "possibly Civ" cylon left (Capricia six) and we have two confirmed cylons alive (Sig and Wigly). You realize that in the LEAST, one of them has to be bad, right? And they both hinted that they are six. Does no one else see this? Seriously? I'm in shock that we are even talking about people outside of these two (well, and glor because Silver didn't try to really hide that one if we are to believe her.) we are still out to kill mafia right?!??

This I don't like.

OA loudly promoted her theory that one among Wilgy and sig is bad given that their "confirmed cylons" (which they aren't), and only included Glorf as an afterthought. Look at how she did that though -- by suggesting that Silverwolf came close to info-dumping against Glorfindel. "If we are to believe her", as if OA has any reason to doubt Silverwolf.

This reads to me like a badly forced inclusion of Glorfindel in a critical post that is itself not factual (as far as I can tell) about the other players mentioned. It also looks like she knew Silverwolf had revealed something about Glorfindel, probably when SW voted for him right out of the gate, but wasn't willing to grant that possibility enough credence to make it more than an afterthought while she pursued Wilgy/sig instead.

Spoiler: show

Again.

I'm not even going to bother with the insanified stuff.

~~~

I'm more suspicious of ObscureAllure than I was an hour ago.

#7458

What contest?

#7459

Ok on the road reads:

Bea - nub town.
Br - I thought check was civ the first few days. Since then I've forgotten she was playing more than once. Like I have to remind myself often nope. She's still here. That kinda makes me nervous.

Drumbeat- I'm having a tough time with him. When he's not here, I feel like I think he might be bad, then when he posts his posts feel pretty civ.

Dr Wilgy - he's a cylon. I belive a good one. I thought I had an idea as to which one but I might be mistaken.

Epi - athena. I got the good feels here.

Gman - reminding me lots of the meticulous note taker I came to love when he was 813. I've seen nothing that makes me suspect him.

Inh - used to be silver so I've been reading him as civ. Still would like to see more from him. I know he can be a very skilled player dispite his rep for the beyond zany.

Jimmy - reads like Jimmy to me. I feel like he is likely civ.

Matt - despite my paranoia at times with him, I can't shake the feeling he has a particular civ role. I think his heart is in the right place.

OA - honestly she is an enigma to me. I'm having a hard time coming to a decision about her intentions and this late in the game that feels important.

Polo - his tunnel on SVS worried me. Other than that he's been pretty civ minded from what I remember.

Wabbit- I had a role penciled in for zeebs. Even though he's wrong about me, I don't think he's bad. Just looking in the wrong place.

Will get the rest out when I'm in line.

#7460

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm finding these Glorfindel interactions a bit tough to assess, because he really did seem to treat everyone in a pretty consistent manner. I'd appreciate a second opinion on these from anyone who is bored enough.

As I said, I think Glorfindel was on his own.

#7461

bea wrote:Wabbit- I had a role penciled in for zeebs. Even though he's wrong about me, I don't think he's bad. Just looking in the wrong place.

Can you quote a post or two of zebra's that brought you to this conclusion? No commentary is necessary if you cannot or do not feel comfortable providing it. Just quote posts.

#7462

Things Glorfindel said to/about Polo:

Spoiler: show

First mention on Day 3 is a positive one.

Spoiler: show

Sustained into Day 4.

Spoiler: show

Cites "principle" when Polo tries to get an explanation for his failure to claim.

Spoiler: show

When Polo moved against him on Day 4, Glorf's tone immediately changed. This is blatant OMGUS, and I think it's a decent look for Polo.

~~~

Things Polo said to/about Glorfindel:

Spoiler: show

Polo did a lot of prodding on Day 4 to get people talking about Glorfindel among others. I like his effort to encourage interaction here among players he has stated suspicion for. This has analytic value and I think his pursuit of it looks authentic.

Spoiler: show

Flings poo at Glorfindel for posting during the GTH reads exercise of Day 4 without participating in them. I like it.

Spoiler: show

Day 5 vote followed by lamentation as he considered Zebra's play.

Spoiler: show

Polo wrote:RIP, juliets!

Glorfindel wrote:
Polo wrote:Well, I am not the President, I am not Golden and I have no certainty over why the law was enacted, but it could have been a way of making it clear that there should be town Cylons in this game.

We still need to kill Cavil, though. Help us do so by claiming Cylon, will ya?
I want to sincerely thank you for taking the time to answer my question, my friend. I acknowledge that you didn't (in all likelihood) enact the law yourself and I totally endorse your presumption that it "could've been a way of making it clear that there should be Town Cylons in this game". But think about that for a minute - it doesn't make any sense in a world where the majority or even a significant number of Cylons are Mafia - UNLESS... the vast majority of Cylons AREN'T Mafia! That's been my problem with this whole Cylon Amnesty declaration thing all along. The general consensus (from my reading of things) is that the Admiral is working to a non-Town agenda by implementing win conditions under martial law that require the elimination of all our Cylon friends. If the Cylon Amnesty Act has never been repealed and we believe was passed for pro-Town reasons, I ask you, what harm have we potentially done to our chances of winning this game by eliminating a mechanic that may very well have been intended to give us some advantage?

I DO however agree with you about John Cavil. If there was one Cylon that is part of a Mafia team it would most likely be him. As I said before though, I think it's more likely that he's already jumped ship. Put yourself in his shoes - as things stand right now, which side of the fence would you rather be on? The side where there's seven or eight players you can help divert attention to and have the Town waste countless Day phases lynching or leave yourself isolated amongst a small group of players that are the focus of a lot of people's attention?
You are very stubborn to believe that a mafia Cylon such as Cavil would not take advantage of the fact that 8 people haven't claimed. That immunity can make or break the game. I am no longer going to discuss this subject but I still want everyone to claim, because the Cylon Amnesty Act is horrible and it should have never been enacted - and the only way it can be rendered ineffective is by having everyone claim.

Arguing with each other about Cavil and how he might treat the claimtroversy. Looks authentic.

Spoiler: show

By the time Glorfindel was actually lynched, Polo had become obsessed with his suspicion of S~V~S. He voted for her instead, but still endorsed the Glorfindel lynch. It's not my favorite thing, but I don't think it ruins him.

~~~

I'd call Polo an unlikely team mate of Glorfindel.

#7463

Epignosis wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm finding these Glorfindel interactions a bit tough to assess, because he really did seem to treat everyone in a pretty consistent manner. I'd appreciate a second opinion on these from anyone who is bored enough.
As I said, I think Glorfindel was on his own.

Could be. I'm tempering all of my reads based on that problem. I hope I'm not wasting my time.

#7464

Rico - ok. I admit. I've lost why anyone thinks he's suspicious. I didn't think he was bad for refusing to claim. His stance that no one should claim felt more genuine than oa's everyone but me claim. Someone highlight what was bad about him again please cuz I don't see it.

Svs - I got the civ feel from her early in the game and I've seen no reason to change this opinion. I'm confused by what she mentioned by I would have guilted her more by now. But yea. I think she is a civ. I respect her opinion and have agreed with her lots this game.

Sig - zeebs thought he was bad. Wabbit still does. He seems to only pop up when mentioned. I know he's busy and I know he's tricky to read. If someone can make a case for how he is Leboan or six I will listen but he feels like the best bet at Doval or Cavil that I can see.

Sok - trying and reading fairly genuine. I get weird vibes from him at times not sure if that's cuz he's new and I'm just getting to know him or if there is something more.

I believe we are down to two bad cylons. I've been working under the assumption that the lynch of those two will end the game.

I'm in and out today. It's day 1 of comic con. My phone is already at 77 percent.

#7465

JJJ it was how she treated me and another player back when I made the comment about how it was weird that she was agreeing with me so much. I'm on my phone so it's hard to pull stuff but that's where my head has been. It was pretty wigly lynch. I hope that helps.

#7466

Gah. Epi that post was in response to your question not jj. Sorry. Nub bea strikes again. I'm about to donate blood for the first time. Yikes!

#7467

bea wrote:JJJ it was how she treated me and another player back when I made the comment about how it was weird that she was agreeing with me so much. I'm on my phone so it's hard to pull stuff but that's where my head has been. It was pretty wigly lynch. I hope that helps.

Can you name the other player?

#7468

Wilgy.

#7469

Apologies for splitting this up but I want to get this out there before too close to the deadline. I'll post the vote analysis portion after I eat dinner.

Behavioral Observations:

Pre-Day 1 he jumped right in and tried to help with the opening decoding puzzle

-Night 1 he becomes an early adherant of 1) Epi is civ-aligned and 2) Not all Toasters are bad. He asks people for their thoughts about the merits of the checkerboard sortie plan.

Day 2 he suspects Nutella for very silly reasons (the letter N isn't common- um, watch Wheel of Fortune much?)

Day 3 he recommends we use either Glorfindel or bea on the counterwagon to LoRab instead of Nero, who flipped human. Later on, as the Nero train is established, he reverses course and suggests we put Nero in the lead over LoRab, which would nix our ability to confirm her amnesty claim.

Day 4 he thanks Cain for martial law (even though it makes the game harder to win for the civs)

Night 5 he seems pretty firm in thinking that Wilgy is bad and says he'll be suspicious of Wilgy defenders if Wilgy flips as Caprica 6.

Day 6 he still pursues his suspicion of Wilgy and chides those who buy into Wilgy being Caprica 6 or #2. He also questions Dex's and Polo's motives for entertaining the notion that Wilgy is civ-aligned. He also questions the issue of balancing a game with a small baddie team.

Day 7 he was in the brig, I think.

#7470

G-Man wrote:
ObscureAllure wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
ObscureAllure wrote:
DrumBeats wrote:
ObscureAllure wrote:So both sig and Wigly are confirmed cylons due to surviving their lynches. I think we can all agree that there is likely only one good cylon left. This means at least one of the two of them should be bad. Are we not going to discuss this?
Didn't we come to the conclusion that there were likely two goods left earlier (Cap Six + Leoben)? I remember that was what Dex was pushing

He's not Six, so it leaves one. I figured out a long time ago who six and Gaias are. I'm honestly shocked more people haven't. He's not six.
I had an idea of who Baltar might be, but then it didn't check out after a certain lynch. So.

Would you be willing to start a sentence with "I think" and then say who?
Helllllll no. But I WILL say I think it's non of the people who are known/highly suspected cylons (Wigly, sig). Which leaves only one possibly good role and two cylons. One of them has to be bad. (possibly both is neither one is the last good guy, or if the good guy isn't actually good.) Despite Dex's dying comment, I'm more likely to suspect Wigly on it. But I'm not ready to vote for that, yet. I think Matt and Polo are also highly likely to be cylons. Of the four, though, Sig is probably my vote. Sig voted for Glor the day Glor was saved, but when voted for Wigly the day that Glor was dying? Why? Also voted for Zebra the day that LoRab died, but NeroLunar to save LoRab? The votes seem odd. It feels like a baddie trying to save LoRab in both cases, and then trying to hide in the Glor bandwagon while he was safe before trying to shift attention to Wigly when Glor was no longer safe.

Matt - please run it through again and repost to help with the translation.
Articulate, if you would please, why you think LoRab was not civ-aligned / anti-Cavil. The lore folks suggested she might have been, given the character's rebellion against Cavil on the show.

I actually forgot about that. So I guess that part is up for grabs because we don't know either way. I'd think we can't have THAT many civ cylons without more mafia elsewhere.

Bea - I keep seeing you say you're a nub player. have you not been playing for years?

G-man RE: Glor and Silver and my reaction. Pay CLOSE ATTENTION to when I got punished again. Seriously, dude.

#7471

I'm bored enough. Selectively, though, because no way am I ISO'ing 15 players at 1am.

bea

Where I left things:

Spoiler: show

Day Four (missed vote)

- reads Glorfindel null, mentioning it's similar to reading Nerolunar null (later, rebuttal on contributing to Nero mislynch)

Day Five [15th vote of 18, 2nd vote on sig, not major wagon]

- questions Polo's early vote for Glorfindel instead of staying consistent with wanting zebra ideally
- applauds Glorfindel's stance on the claiming pressuring; reinforces idea that Glor's posts are influencing a positive look
- concludes not being sold on Glor, compared to Polo and G-Man

Day Six [20th vote of 20, 7th vote on Glorfindel, first wagon]

- inactive, asks Silverwolf to clarify if her suss on Glor is based on not claiming and not rebutting in a satisfactory way
- votes Glorfindel, because she sees it as fulfilling the task of having pressured Glorfindel into claiming and being checked for cylonitis
- [post-non-lynch] reads Glor good Cylon

Day Seven [missed vote]

- questions Obscure on why she read Glorfindel bad
- questions Dex on why he reads Wilgy good and Glorfindel bad
- asks Glorfindel who to lynch instead of him
- quasi-sympathetic rebuttals in an apparent exchange with Glorfindel (1), (2)

Once again, I will admit and clarify that, after Day Three, there was a circumstance (can't retrace the post) in which I believed bea to have hinted at being a type of role. More exaclty, I believed her to have hinted at being one of the original Final Five characters - except that, unless such a character would also get revealed as an F5 in this game, that character/role would otherwise not be a Cylon and remain within human race ranks, right?

But since this is besides any regular perception of her game, her ISO still comes back rather spotty.

Her dynamic in reading Glorindel fluctuates wildly, in ways that could almost be interpreted negatively: uninterested when Glorfindel wasn't too much of a hot topic yet (Day Four); appealing to Glorfindel's quality writing and stances, when he became a hot topic(Day Five); switching from having nothing to say on him to voting him in a manifest to rally with the rest of his lynchers (Day Six); back to treating Glorfindel as possible good and questioning just about anyone who still pushes for his lynch (Day Seven).

Probably my greatest ping, right now, has to do, ironically, with two stances on voting a Cylon who claimed that show up to be quite different.

This is her rebuttal on why she voted Nerolunar, on a Day when LoRab had claimed, Day Three. According to her, she rallied with the rest NOT to pile on LoRab, but to create a clear second wagon, whose lynch would confirm LoRab's immunity.

At the time I voted Neuro I was at work and skimming the thread. As I understood what was going down, we were trying to split the vote between lorab and someone the thread suspected so that we could confirm that lorab was cylon. There were lots of votes on lorab neuro was the leading CW. I went with the flow of the town.

Here is her stance on voting Glorfindel, Day Six. According to her, the rally this time should be to precisely pile on the claimee, as to verify his immunity.

I'm confused again. Don't we want glor to be in the lead since he claimed today? So that we know his survival is because he claimed? Wasn't that like the reason some of us were putting pressure on people to claim in the first place?

I feel like I said the same thing last lynch and I think I'm even more confused today as to what people's motivations are.

voting glorbecause I thought that was the point of making him claim and because I'm stuck in linki

So to recap, on the Day a likely good Cylon survived, her focus was to help build a second bonfire (which mis-...wait for it...fired). On the Day a likely bad Cylon survived, her focus was to add to that Cylon's tally. Correlating this with her moodswinging attitude towards Glorfindel, this could easily translate into bussybus for Glorfindel, to look principled.

Or maybe this rather correlates her with sig, who was clear second wagon on Day Six, and yet she didn't apply the same "Nerolunar" lynchlogic to sig as well. ...except she did want to lynch sig... after which (half an hour later): nothing.

I'm planning to look into a few more names to see if they spike above this standard of suspicion, but this to me is not "nub" bea. This is fishy.

#7472

G-Man wrote:Apologies for splitting this up but I want to get this out there before too close to the deadline. I'll post the vote analysis portion after I eat dinner.

Behavioral Observations:

Pre-Day 1 he jumped right in and tried to help with the opening decoding puzzle

-Night 1 he becomes an early adherant of 1) Epi is civ-aligned and 2) Not all Toasters are bad. He asks people for their thoughts about the merits of the checkerboard sortie plan.

Day 2 he suspects Nutella for very silly reasons (the letter N isn't common- um, watch Wheel of Fortune much?)

Day 3 he recommends we use either Glorfindel or bea on the counterwagon to LoRab instead of Nero, who flipped human. Later on, as the Nero train is established, he reverses course and suggests we put Nero in the lead over LoRab, which would nix our ability to confirm her amnesty claim.

Day 4 he thanks Cain for martial law (even though it makes the game harder to win for the civs)

Night 5 he seems pretty firm in thinking that Wilgy is bad and says he'll be suspicious of Wilgy defenders if Wilgy flips as Caprica 6.

Day 6 he still pursues his suspicion of Wilgy and chides those who buy into Wilgy being Caprica 6 or #2. He also questions Dex's and Polo's motives for entertaining the notion that Wilgy is civ-aligned. He also questions the issue of balancing a game with a small baddie team.

Day 7 he was in the brig, I think.

Who the hell is he?

#7473

G-Man is talking about DrumBeats.

#7474

Aw crapweasels. 'He' is DrumBeats. Sorry about that.

Linki:

'd by JJJ

#7475

My vote is likely going to rabbit8. When asked about 3J's interactions with nutella, he immediately speculated about mechanics rather than call out 3J's action itself, which he ended up doing later and then put 3J on both sides of his "Or" statement simultaneously.

His response to what I said missed the point of what I said entirely.

For review:

rabbit8 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:rabbit8 made the cardinal error of making the mechanics fit his "suspicion." Ricochet asked about how 3J could be bad if nutella is, and rabbit didn't disappoint. The first thing he came up with was two mafia teams.

rabbit8 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I feel the assumption that JJJ might be bad needs to pass the test of explaining how could JJJ have initiated and carried nutella's hunt all the way through on Day Two.
Two mafia factions.
His first way to justify 3J being bad was two mafia actions, but he added this after:

rabbit8 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I feel the assumption that JJJ might be bad needs to pass the test of explaining how could JJJ have initiated and carried nutella's hunt all the way through on Day Two.

Or throw someone under the bus? Is this not done anymore?

I think two mafia teams in this size games makes more sense though.
The fact that rabbit added "Is this not done anymore?" indicates that he is equally, if not more, at home with people throwing teammates under the bus, and that makes me think that, if he were expressing his natural thoughts, he would have mentioned this one first. He didn't. He speculated on the mechanics first, and added this as a second thought. However, he hedged with what he "thinks" makes more sense (i.e. two mafia teams).

Keep in mind that all of this is to solidify a 3J suspicion, and this is key. Follow me:

3J is bad.

How? He went against nutella!

It's simple. There are two mafia teams.

Okay, I follow. That means 3J is genuinely hunting the other team and caught nutella.

Or he threw somebody under the bus.

Okay, I get that. That means 3J is on the same team as nutella, and he ditched her.

But there are totally two teams.

++++

The existence of two mafia teams doesn't condemn 3J any more than it does anybody else. In fact, if anything, it works in 3J's favor, because he's likely not on the second team. But that doesn't matter, because 3J threw nutella under the bus (same team) even though there are, according to rabbit8, two teams!

rabbit8's accusation of 3J is based on two conflicting scenarios, and I don't think he believes either. He's full of shit.

Your move.

So now, for this bullshit.

I think JJJ is bad. We started spit balling ideas. I came up with a few scenarios where it would fit and make JJJ look bad when asked how it would make JJJ look bad.

Ricochet wrote:I feel the assumption that JJJ might be bad needs to pass the test of explaining how could JJJ have initiated and carried nutella's hunt all the way through on Day Two.

rabbit8 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I feel the assumption that JJJ might be bad needs to pass the test of explaining how could JJJ have initiated and carried nutella's hunt all the way through on Day Two.

Two mafia factions.
Me and rico go back and fourth a bit.

Then I say this:

rabbit8 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I feel the assumption that JJJ might be bad needs to pass the test of explaining how could JJJ have initiated and carried nutella's hunt all the way through on Day Two.

Or throw someone under the bus? Is this not done anymore?

I think two mafia teams in this size games makes more sense though.
There is a reason or is the first word I lead off with in this post. I fucking state in the post I think the idea of two mafia teams makes more sense. More sense then what you ask? More sense then the first sentence in the fucking quote.

Then OA mentions replacements and more spit balling goes on between people.

Ideas where being thrown out by more then just me. I was engaging the thread to get my point across. I think there are two mafia teams.

If not I think JJJ threw nutella under the bus.

Because...... I think he is bad.

#7476

Yes oa. I've been playing for years. Time does not = skill.

#7477

bea wrote:Rico - ok. I admit. I've lost why anyone thinks he's suspicious. I didn't think he was bad for refusing to claim. His stance that no one should claim felt more genuine than oa's everyone but me claim. Someone highlight what was bad about him again please cuz I don't see it.

Svs - I got the civ feel from her early in the game and I've seen no reason to change this opinion. I'm confused by what she mentioned by I would have guilted her more by now. But yea. I think she is a civ. I respect her opinion and have agreed with her lots this game.

Sig - zeebs thought he was bad. Wabbit still does. He seems to only pop up when mentioned. I know he's busy and I know he's tricky to read. If someone can make a case for how he is Leboan or six I will listen but he feels like the best bet at Doval or Cavil that I can see.

Sok - trying and reading fairly genuine. I get weird vibes from him at times not sure if that's cuz he's new and I'm just getting to know him or if there is something more.

I believe we are down to two bad cylons. I've been working under the assumption that the lynch of those two will end the game.

I'm in and out today. It's day 1 of comic con. My phone is already at 77 percent.

I have made pokes at you, and questioned things you said more than once, since the Nutella lynch, really. I have said I was suspish of you. You have basically ignored all of it. I think you would have been a bit more

at me for allof that. Either you did not see it (and you seem pretty well informed) or you ignored it. I think civ Bea would be more likely to pout at me & try to guilt me for those feels, and you didn't. I waffled a bit, but this really bothers me, tbh. You say you agree with me lots, but lots of my posts have said I find you suspect.

#7478

bea, if you're around, and you truly believe rabbit8 is good, then you have the power to stay my wrath. I need more than vague business about how zebra treated you and Wilgy. Can you explain why that made you feel all right?

#7479

Rico I know I look thread bad. I get it. But I'm not. I invite you and everyone else to look at Roger rabbit speed mafia and rocky bullwinkle speed mafia. Compare them both. Which do I read more like in this game.

I'm not having a good game. But I'm not mafia and I'm not a cylon. Just a human with cylon sympathies. If I'm lynched and you see my role you'd even be hard pressed to find lore reasons to think I could be bad.

#7480

Svs - I remember addressing you early on. Outside of what others have said, and not being pouty enough is there something I've missed? Direct me and I will answer. I've taken the fact that you do have doubts about me as a sign that you were trustworthy. I know that seems weird but it is what it is.

Epi - there was a back and forth just before the Wilgy lynch where she and he both read me as civ and said they agreed with me. Then Wilgy said something along the lines of it being unusual that he and zeebs agree. She said "i know it's a magical game. " or something along the lines of that. Right before the Wilgy lynch I said something clicked for me. That was it. I could be wrong for sure but it felt like bts of the human and cylon kind.

That's it that's what I saw.

#7481

Svs - I remember addressing you early on. Outside of what others have said, and not being pouty enough is there something I've missed? Direct me and I will answer. I've taken the fact that you do have doubts about me as a sign that you were trustworthy. I know that seems weird but it is what it is.

Epi - there was a back and forth just before the Wilgy lynch where she and he both read me as civ and said they agreed with me. Then Wilgy said something along the lines of it being unusual that he and zeebs agree. She said "i know it's a magical game. " or something along the lines of that. Right before the Wilgy lynch I said something clicked for me. That was it. I could be wrong for sure but it felt like bts of the human and cylon kind.

That's it that's what I saw.

#7482

What does cylon sympathies mean? Do we still have civvies with an "agenda" to not "sympathise" with the/any Cylons?

I don't have any time left to compare two games, but your "I'm not having a good game" / "I look bad, but I'm not" is pretty standard defense from you anyway.

Won't you comment on why you changed stances on how to deal with a Cylon who already claimed, between LoRab and Glorfindel? Especially since it's the one element to really make me distrust you, right now.

#7483

Rico. I still genuinely feel bad about my role in Nero's lynch. My change in stance was because I was trying to learn from my mistakes in that lynch. I would have likely voted glor had my RL I had to go to work early to fire a dude got in the way. Believe what you will, but it's the gods honest truth. I can't explain it any differently than I have.

#7484

bea wrote:Svs - I remember addressing you early on. Outside of what others have said, and not being pouty enough is there something I've missed? Direct me and I will answer. I've taken the fact that you do have doubts about me as a sign that you were trustworthy. I know that seems weird but it is what it is.

Epi - there was a back and forth just before the Wilgy lynch where she and he both read me as civ and said they agreed with me. Then Wilgy said something along the lines of it being unusual that he and zeebs agree. She said "i know it's a magical game. " or something along the lines of that. Right before the Wilgy lynch I said something clicked for me. That was it. I could be wrong for sure but it felt like bts of the human and cylon kind.

That's it that's what I saw.

I appreciate your answer bea, but it doesn't mitigate my opinion of rabbit.

What do you think of my accusation toward him?

#7485

bea wrote:Svs - I remember addressing you early on. Outside of what others have said, and not being pouty enough is there something I've missed? Direct me and I will answer. I've taken the fact that you do have doubts about me as a sign that you were trustworthy. I know that seems weird but it is what it is.

Epi - there was a back and forth just before the Wilgy lynch where she and he both read me as civ and said they agreed with me. Then Wilgy said something along the lines of it being unusual that he and zeebs agree. She said "i know it's a magical game. " or something along the lines of that. Right before the Wilgy lynch I said something clicked for me. That was it. I could be wrong for sure but it felt like bts of the human and cylon kind.

That's it that's what I saw.

It is just your whole big picture. Starting with the Nutella lynch. You have made a lot of posts, and done lots of catch up, you just seem to never address the little things, although you are obviously reading the thread. You are playing the OMG I'm busy card more than I like for someone with as many posts as you have.

#7486

bea wrote:Rico. I still genuinely feel bad about my role in Nero's lynch. My change in stance was because I was trying to learn from my mistakes in that lynch. I would have likely voted glor had my RL I had to go to work early to fire a dude got in the way. Believe what you will, but it's the gods honest truth. I can't explain it any differently than I have.

I'm not sure what this references or rather, if it references Day Six, how it checks out, given that:

a) you did vote Glorfidel

b) you would have, however, wanted to vote sig, mere 30 minutes before voting Glorfindel

#7487

Things Glorfindel said to/about a2thezebra / rabbit8:

Spoiler: show

Positive assessment on Day 3.

Spoiler: show

Idle banter about sig on Day 5.

Spoiler: show

Sustained positivity into Day 6.

Spoiler: show

Happy cuddles in response to Zebra opposing a Glorf lynch.

Spoiler: show

He gripes a little bit about rabbit taking a different stance on him to Zebra's and throws a little shade, but there is no definitive accusation. This was Glorf's only real acknowledgement of rabbit after the replacement, apart from a Day 6 GTH read of "good".

I'd call this all team mate-compatible, but not necessarily indicative. I have a feeling this interaction will be more interesting in the other direction.

~~~

Things a2thezebra / rabbit8 said to/about Glorfindel:

Spoiler: show

This is iffy to me. I know a lot of people have "gotten rocky" with Zebra at some point who she still claims have no ability to read her. She deliberately strives for the unreadable meta; that she was so gracious about Glorf's claim to that skill doesn't look as authentic. This was Day 1 after all.

Light green on a third cycle rainbow list

These are so far the only acknowledgements of Glorfindel in her first 184 posts, unless there are others without names specifically included in the posts.

Spoiler: show

Indirectly defensive of Glorfindel on Day 5, to be fair I said it first.

Spoiler: show

This nonsense began on Day 5.

Spoiler: show

She literally refused to believe that Silverwolf's quick Glorf vote wasn't a forced vote. This is bizarre.

Spoiler: show

She pushes that narrative again, and this time she does so in such a way that she discredits Silverwolf's vote entirely. I don't like it.

Spoiler: show

I hate this post. First of all, she acts like it's the end of the world if Glorfindel is lynched no matter what his alignment. Second of all, she seems to project the end result of Day 6 before anyone should have known it -- that Glorf winning the tally after claiming would result in no lynch at all instead of the second place winner being lynched. Sirengif.

Spoiler: show

Pointless question.

Spoiler: show

Still Day 6. The ponder seems to imply that on some level Zebra is rethinking her stance on Glorfindel, but nothing is clearly stated and we're left to ponder.

Spoiler: show

Hysteria bearing no support.

Spoiler: show

I have no idea what this person is talking about.

Spoiler: show

I told Glorfindel he was defending himself too much and needed to get some suspects out. Zebra laughed at that assertion.

Transitioning to rabbits posts now...

First substantive post after replacement, calls Glorfindel bad based on his wordy but content-lacking posts.

The guy entered the game while the climate in the thread against Glorfindel was already terrible. If he's bad and teamed with Glorf then he probably feels quite restricted to this stance. Doesn't have to mean it's false though.

Spoiler: show

He'd stated his suspicion of Glorfindel, and conversed with him in this post about the amnesty act. Rabbit8 said he doubted he'd vote Glorfindel on Day 6 though, for reasons unclear to me.

Spoiler: show

Unhelpful WIFOM, and he took credit for a save that didn't even happen.

Suggests Glorf looks bad emerging from Day 2 nutella lynch

~~~

My suspicion of rabbit has not subsided. Zebra's posts especially are a problem.

#7488

Epignosis wrote:
bea wrote:Svs - I remember addressing you early on. Outside of what others have said, and not being pouty enough is there something I've missed? Direct me and I will answer. I've taken the fact that you do have doubts about me as a sign that you were trustworthy. I know that seems weird but it is what it is.

Epi - there was a back and forth just before the Wilgy lynch where she and he both read me as civ and said they agreed with me. Then Wilgy said something along the lines of it being unusual that he and zeebs agree. She said "i know it's a magical game. " or something along the lines of that. Right before the Wilgy lynch I said something clicked for me. That was it. I could be wrong for sure but it felt like bts of the human and cylon kind.

That's it that's what I saw.
I appreciate your answer bea, but it doesn't mitigate my opinion of rabbit.

What do you think of my accusation toward him?

Wabbit seems like wabbit. It's hard to catch him bad or good. Little if anything he's said in the thread is allignment inductive in my opinion. You make as good a case as anyone can on him.

#7489

I'm voting now. I'm about to eat, and the NBA Finals are after that. Go Cavaliers.

Vote - rabbit8

#7490

My movie starts in 10 minutes and won't be over till post lynch which means I'm voting now. Sucks as I feel like I should hold on to it for defensive reasons.

I'm not feeling great about making it out of this lynch. I'm sorry I let you down fellow civs.

My biggest town reads are epi, svs Matt inh and gman.
Polo and drumbeat would be next teir.

I could see the potential for bad in anyone else. Like I said I thought a thing about Wilgy and Wabbit when he was zeebs but I also admit it could have been an incorrect read.

Voting sig It's the best I've got. Which admittedly isn't all that great.

#7491

And now for DrumBeats' votes:

Day 1 he votes mid-pack for Rico. Consistent with his Day 1 suspicion of Rico. Day 1 is still too spread out for me to make anything of it.

Day 2 vote comes next to last overall and isn't necessary to seal the deal on her lynch. It is at least consistent with his suspicion of her but I thought his suspicions were soft.

Day 3 is that Nero vote.

Day 4 he is the first to vote overall and votes for the obvious target: LoRab. Eager to attone for his Day 3?

Day 5 he misses the vote. Was he being punished or was it a miss? I can't recall just now.

Day 6 is when he nearly repeats his Day 3 by voting sig.

Day 7 is another miss. He was in the brig.

That's three missing votes out of seven. The remaining votes look suspect in varying degrees and they aren't helped by the absence of other votes that could make him look better.

#7492

I predict seven missing votes.

#7493

Epignosis wrote:I predict seven missing votes.

Cynic.

#7494

I am going to

*Vote Bea*

Her answers were scrambly & vague. The main other person I came into today suspecting, sig, dropped down my list with what I felt was not an answer a baddie would give about how he survived. Not totally off the list, but down it quite some ways.

Most of the game I felt pretty good about Jay, and rereading him made me get that feel back. His recent suspicion of rabbit got my back up somewhat since it seemed somewhat biased by general demeanor, which struck me as possibly opportunistic and not totally Jay, but like I said, reading back reminded me of why I trusted him in the first place.

#7495

Voting rabbit8

I encourage this lynch. I believe he is bad.

#7496

Epignosis wrote:Voting rabbit8

I encourage this lynch. I believe he is bad.

Me too. I encourage it, and since I'm in the lead right now I still think Bea, Ricco, Sig and JJJ are bad.,

#7497

I've learned to ignore my gut when it comes to rabbit. I've seen nothing that says he isn't the same bozo guy he usually is

#7498

rabbit8 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Voting rabbit8

I encourage this lynch. I believe he is bad.

Me too. I encourage it, and since I'm in the lead right now I still think Bea, Ricco, Sig and JJJ are bad.,

No you aren't you're tied with Bea.

#7499

A better offer has come up, so I have to vote and leave now.

If I'm going with my strongest hunch. I'd like the vote data to be more complete but there is so much weirdness to his record that I can't give him a pass.

vote = DrumBeats

#7500

The problem that I'm currently faced with is my complete lack of knowledge of the players and the history of this game. Don't get me wrong, I am reading and forming impressions, but it's hard for me to accurately judge cases based on votes and reactions and events that occurred days ago, especially in a game as idiosyncratic as this one. This makes choosing which case to believe tricky, as my well of objective knowledge is limited to 2 in-game days ago. But, the Admiral wants three names and three sets of reasonings, and that's what he'll get.

In no real order:
1) bea - this case seems to be the one based on the most stone-cold facts, as bea has a pretty sketchy voting record, which she herself would tell you. I don't know if I am getting a baddie vibe simply from her posts, but it's hard to argue with facts

2) SVS ~ anytime anyone posts a case on someone similar to the one Polo posted on SVS, I want to go with it even if there are some leaps made. You say gullible, I say willing to test in order to see what information is revealed. It feels like Polo has some info on her that we all lack, and I kinda want to give him the benefit of the doubt.

3) Sokolth ~ all of his reads that he posted seemed fishy to me, and G-Man's case on him made a fair amount of sense as well.

Who be you lynching today?