The first 24 hours of this day phase were close to a total waste. We have got to wake up.
I'm going to pull out all of the Dex content from Day 9/10 after he was resurrected and see how it reflects on people. I'm acting under the assumption that he was good before he died and was resurrected bad. This may not be accurate, and if anyone feels it isn't accurate then say so.
Dex wrote:#2
First of all, massive apologies to Glorfindel. He was telling the truth the whole time and I was not buying it. I knew he had to be Cavil, Doral, or Boomer, and I was convinced because of the show - just as Glorfindel said - that they were all bad. That Boomer flipped civ has taken me aback.
Black Rock: mafia
Dex: F5, but still rocking the civ
DrumBeats: civ
DrWilgy: do not know his role but still KNOW HE IS CIV. The Boomer flip has no bearing on the evidence I found that he is civ
Epignosis: Civ, but can no longer defend him as I was before the Boomer flip
insertnamehere: civ
JaggedJimmyJay: civ
juliets: F5 civ?
Matt: civ
Nerolunar: F5 civ?
ObscureAllure: Mafia, cannot stop herself from tunneling on Wilgy
Polo: civ
Rabbit8: civ
Ricochet: mafia
S~V~S: civ
sig: mafia
SokothQultuq: mafia
Spacedaisy: F5 civ?
I'm guessing that not all Final Five are civ, but as they re-appeared just today we really have had no time to get any reads on them. Knowing my own situation, however, I'm willing to start by giving them the benefit of the doubt.
DrumBeats wrote:Dead who have returned: Please identify which death messages were yours.
The only Will post I made was the one using my patented "Hi Cavil" smiley:
Reads as demanded by the admiral on Day 9. I'm most interested in the reads he felt a need to
expand on, instead of merely saying "civ" or "mafia". They are DrWilgy, Epignosis, and ObscureAllure.
He continues his pre-death hard defense of Wilgy, and I suspect it was a genuine defense the first time around. I think he had no choice but to maintain that perspective after conversion or he'd draw unnecessary questions for it. He was Mr. Lore all game long, and he denies the relevance of lore to his read of DrWilgy -- this strikes me as B/S. There's no "evidence" in this game thread strong enough to exonerate Wilgy in this way, and any other information supporting this would render it an illegal infodump.
He maintained a civ grade on Epignosis, but with the stipulation that he can't defend him with lore any longer. This gives Dex space to move his read on Epi in a snap, something that I think could benefit him regardless of whether they're team mates. I don't think this says much.
He graded OA badly solely because of her treatment of Wilgy. I get the impression that OA and Wilgy aren't
both bad. It's one or the other or neither.
Otherwise his reads are very easy. No bold calls, apart maybe from Ricochet. I think his mafia call on Sokoth is a decent look for Sokoth, because he's the easiest target in the game right now. If Sokoth is good then you can be certain that the baddies eye him as a mislynch opportunity. His BR read looks opportunistic too.
Dex wrote:#3
Ricochet wrote:Dex wrote:DrWilgy: do not know his role but still KNOW HE IS CIV. The Boomer flip has no bearing on the evidence I found that he is civ
You present a defense of Wilgy being Conoy, right? Is that still viable? If not, on what grounds do you read Wilgy civ? (I'm asking for reiteration, in case you already covered this). Do you think that, if Anna flipped independent, Conoy might as well?
No. I do not. Look at my post that you quoted. My defense of Wilgy is not that he is Leoben and so must be good. I do not know what role Wilgy is, I'm only guessing that it's Leoben. What I know is that Wilgy is civ, whatever his role. I don't know how I can be clearer on this. I don't see how you can be mis-reading this. It's not "Wilgy must be Leoben and, according to lore, Leoben is good". It's "Wilgy is civ, whatever his role is, maybe it's Leoben."
It occurs to me that Glorfindel's civ flip, as surprising as it is, doesn't necessarily mean we have to throw lore out the window. I doubt it, given the way Goldama has structured this game. I doubt he assigned alignment to cylons randomly. For the entire first season, Boomer WAS civ-aligned, right up to the Season 1 finale, when she shot Adama. It stands to reason, therefore, that Boomer would begin the game civ-aligned.
Continues to insist Wilgy is good regardless of lore. In a separate post I'm going to return to Dex's pre-death defense of Wilgy and decide what I think of it now, because this might be quite telling.
Dex wrote:#4
In which case, I'm back to defending Epi, based on lore. Athena was never mafia.
Found a roundabout way of returning to a lore-based defense of Epignosis.
Dex wrote:Polo, this is a flat-out lie:
Polo wrote:S~V~S was the only person here who argued with me on this. It's a major red flag in my book. By showing confidence at asking me to give her a name, she wanted me to forget any possibility of her being Cavil, but this little trick was her big mistake.]
Did you forget our exchange on this topic?
Dex wrote:You asked me the same question and I gave you the same answer as did S~V~S. The finer points of the debate deserve more attention. You seem to only regard the Cain or Cavil first question non contextually; in a vacuum, which is the greater evil, Cain or Cavil? You are dismayed when anybody answers anything but Cavil. But S~V~S and I were coming from a context where we were fairly certain who Cain was - and we were right - and had no idea who Cavil was. It could have taken us all game to find Cavil; we had Cain in hand.
And I'm not sure what you mean by the mafia boss "being more dangerous to mafia than to civs". That may be true per se, Cavil wants all humans dead (I presume) and Cain didn't want any humans dead. But you overlook the fact that Cain made civ victory twice as difficult by requiring twice the number of lynches to win. And that's just the numerical disadvantage. Martial law was depriving us of half the cylons as aliies, and denying us whatever powers they had that might be of great usefulness to the civ cause. Possibly even, for example, finding Cavil.
What you are apparently preferring here is that we spend an indeterminate amount of time prioritizing a search for a particular role with half the chance to win the game than to take out first a known target that will double our chances of winning.
If anybody had even the slightest inkling who Cavil was, we may have answered you differently. Taking out a target who we had pretty much identified who was having a serious negative effect on a civ victory was a far, far better choice.
During the course of a lengthy debate, I also asked you for a name. How have you forgotten all of this? Selective memory? In my last in-case-I'm-NKed post, just before I was in fact NKed, I named S~V~S as one of my strongest civ reads, and that remains the case. I find your tunneling on her very peculiar.
"Polo, this is a flat out lie."
Nah. Baddies love to attack townies when they make demonstrably false assertions, because it's the easiest thing in the world to twist against them. Good look for Polo.
Dex wrote:#6. Ugh.
DrumBeats wrote:One more question, and this applies to all four final five revived people, how many of the final five do you believe are likely Cavil-aligned? Just take a guess
DrumBeats wrote:@ Dex
@ juliets
@ Spacedaisy
How many people in the F5 do you believe are mafia?
I feel like the four who have returned are two and two. The fifth is a total unknown to me.
He joins the other F5ers in guessing at a 2:2 alignment split. This strikes me as an imbalanced split and there's no reason for all four of them to make the same guess unless there is
some reason for it that I cannot see. I think the natural inclination for most people would to guess at 3:1 good:bad without being given a distinct reason to assume otherwise. It's possible that Dex is just taking advantage of the opportunity to get someone else mislynched if he goes down, but I don't think the climate of the thread was such at this point that he'd have a good reason to make that play.
Dex wrote:Ricochet wrote:Still haven't heard what I'm still mafia for, to you, btw.
Your bizzaro-world reasons for not claiming and our Wilgy debate whcih got rather warm.
Pretty easy reason to throw suspicion at Rico. Decent look.
Dex wrote:Post #7
I don't want to vote Epi or S~V~S. Epi because I guess I'm not just over lore yet. Boomer spent an entire season being good, but Athena was never evil. And S~V~S because she has been one of my stronger civ reads ever since she lead the charge on Cain. I just can't see a Cavil cylon doing that. If martial law benefits anyone other than Cain, it's the Cavil cylons.
Epignosis wrote:Ricochet wrote:You're basically suggesting the Final Five should just pick each other apart.
Damn right I am. If they are all saying some of them are bad, then they all should be in the hot seat. They SHOULD BE picking each other apart.
But THIS makes sense to me. If the 4ofF5 did come down two and two, then even if I just draw a name out of a hat, I've got a 66.6% of getting an evil toaster. Juliettes has been reading best to me, Nero worse, and SpaceDaisy somewhere in between. Accordingly, I'm voting
Neroluner
Epignosis took Dex to task for this post. Instead of sticking Spacedaisy into the "bad" category alongside Nero, he provided a waffle of a half-read. Bad look for her.
Dex wrote:#3
Ricochet wrote:This took quite a while to think off (which is quite the understatement, given what I've focused on yesterDay), but what are the chances of Boomer having been a sort of seemer - not in terms of showing up as someone else, but showing up as town?
One reason that keeps nagging me is the role of Cally. Why would Cally be designed to have a shot at killing Boomer, if Boomer were civilian? Town praying on town makes no sense. Mind you, we're not talking some basic ninja civ skills, with which a civilian can either hit the jackpot and eliminate mafia or frak up and deplete the civ ranks... we're talking a specific, revengeful (according to the l-word) bullet for one character only. It doesn't matter that Cally never reached Boomer (maybe she hasn't even lived enough to achieve that), it matters that she was destined to, from the design.
Another aspect is that Boomer's alignment flip being seemer-ish would have allowed for Glorfindel to play out his "truthful / never lying" facade. In a strange way, if he knew he'd flip town, he didn't need to feel conflicted that he's lying to us about being genuine and town and fighting for the good cause (...even if was lying), because he would know that, upon showing up as town, our minds would get fried (*raises hand*) and we'd treat his legacy as genuine.
Besides, if Glorfindel was by any stretch of the imagination Cavil-aligned, I have no doubt that SVS mentored him in how to defend to perfection.
Please comment.
END OF POST #3
Rico, I don't know what to say. I think this is brilliant, and rings true to me. In the show, if there was any character who "seemed" good but wasn't, it was Boomer. None of the other cylons were moles in quite the same way. It explains so much that has been bothering me since the Boomer flip.
Enthusiastic supporter of the theory Rico provided that Glorfindel might have been a seemer. If Glorfindel is not a seemer, then the notion that he
is could serve as a great distraction and tactic for generating faulty links. I'm going to lean toward Glorfindel being a true townie.
Dex wrote:3.
ObscureAllure wrote:Dex: what's your surety on Wigly being a civvie? Can you back it up with anything? Because I can back my end up and unless something is amiss, that boy is bad. It kind of weird a me out that you sound sure, when I know you can't be (or he's got multiple personality disorder.)
The same way you've said you know something;
I saw something in the thread that I'm forbidden to talk about. The conclusion is inescapable. If you want to present your case though, I'd be happy to critique it. IIRC, it had some assumptions about the numbers of civ and mafia cylons in the game.
I don't understand how this logic works. If there's something he saw that he's forbidden to talk about, then shouldn't he also be forbidden to talk about being forbidden to talk about it? The potential damage is nearly the same. We'll see though when I look back to his original Wilgy defense.
Dex wrote:6.
All I was doing was ranking a set of three suspects from most to least suspicious, and voting for the most. If there had been even one other suspect in the set, your three-card monte logic wouldn't even be possible. I have learned from my albeit limited experience that when you resort to one four-letter word response you are beyond engaging in genuine debate, so, especially with a limited number of posts available, I'm done. "X sounds the best" does not equal "x is good". "Y sounds the worst" does not equal "Y is bad".
Go frak yourself, civ cylon, like me, nonetheless.
This was a response to Epi. Dex literally fled the scene and hid under the table instead of fighting back. This suggests to me that they were distancing from each other, because that tends to be a two-way street. In this case, it's one guy (Epi) hammering the other guy (Dex), who then realizes that continuing to engage can only hurt him more and instead he goes for the indignant mistreated guy look. He was also too frozen to budge from his civ read on Epi despite having given him the space to do so before. I think he understood that even trying to do that would just make his end even more certain, because it'd lose him the audience.
Dex wrote:#9
Nerolunar wrote:I believe Dex is bad, Epig.
I need to vote because I'm going to bed. I'm still leaning bad on you Epig but the point you are raising against Dex looks reasonable. Makes me wonder if Glorfindel really was bad/seemer. Out of the other F5 I like Juliets way more than Daisy.
Vote Dex
Let's think like Epi, shall we?
Nero says he's good. He thinks I'm bad. He likes Juliets better than Daisy, which means he thinks Juliets is good. Yet he doesn't say Daisy is bad! It's "logically inconsistent"! Lynch him! Syllogisms and shit, lol.
I can't believe I had to burn so many posts defending myself against this bullshit "logic". Way to go, Epi.
Total reductionist discredit. Epi is not his team mate. This is also a clear "why me?" defense that he is using against Nerolunar, which makes Nero look good too.
Thanks for the information, Dex.
[-Mass Effect Mafia banner-]
). This is bullcrap.
