[ENDGAME] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

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Epignosis
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#901

Post by Epignosis »

DrWilgy voted you. Why did he do that, and why do you think he changed when the pressure came?
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#902

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Epignosis wrote:DrWilgy voted you. Why did he do that, and why do you think he changed when the pressure came?
That's a question better directed to DrWilgy. I can do as much as guess:

At least at some point, he did suspect me. I think that during my exchange with G-Man, Wilgy was afraid that I was bad and trying to draw out the cop. That's what made me read him strongly town.

He has since claimed that he moved his vote with the intent to just blindside me at the last second, suggesting he still suspects/suspected me at the end of Day 2. I can believe that. I was a rather abrasive presence on Day 2 and I would expect that to make some people uneasy.

The only negative assertion I could make is that he meant to delay my lynch until later in the game when it would be more damaging to town. That's a reach though.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#903

Post by Epignosis »

It's all shitty to me. Wilgy votes you, then moves when the wave comes, and then claims he was going to jump back on you, after you voted alongside him.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#904

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Epignosis wrote:It's all shitty to me. Wilgy votes you, then moves when the wave comes, and then claims he was going to jump back on you, after you voted alongside him.
Okay, so you think the baddie team is Wilgy, Elohcin, and I?
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#905

Post by Epignosis »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Epignosis wrote:It's all shitty to me. Wilgy votes you, then moves when the wave comes, and then claims he was going to jump back on you, after you voted alongside him.
Okay, so you think the baddie team is Wilgy, Elohcin, and I?
At the moment, aye.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#906

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Epignosis wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Epignosis wrote:It's all shitty to me. Wilgy votes you, then moves when the wave comes, and then claims he was going to jump back on you, after you voted alongside him.
Okay, so you think the baddie team is Wilgy, Elohcin, and I?
At the moment, aye.
So, when "the pressure mounted" against me and Wilgy took flight from my wagon... who brought the pressure?

Elohcin and G-Man.

You're asserting that Wilgy was spooked by his own team mate's vote?
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#907

Post by Epignosis »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Epignosis wrote:It's all shitty to me. Wilgy votes you, then moves when the wave comes, and then claims he was going to jump back on you, after you voted alongside him.
Okay, so you think the baddie team is Wilgy, Elohcin, and I?
At the moment, aye.
So, when "the pressure mounted" against me and Wilgy took flight from my wagon... who brought the pressure?

Elohcin and G-Man.

You're asserting that Wilgy was spooked by his own team mate's vote?
Spooked? No. It looked cooked to me.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#908

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Epignosis wrote:Spooked? No. It looked cooked to me.
When you say "cooked", do you mean "premeditated" or just "fake"?
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#909

Post by Epignosis »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Spooked? No. It looked cooked to me.
When you say "cooked", do you mean "premeditated" or just "fake"?
The latter. Fraudulent.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#910

Post by Spacedaisy »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
Spacedaisy wrote:
G-Man wrote:Boy, this day just gets stranger and stranger. Eight votes spread over seven people, including a Sadness style self-vote? This doesn't give me much hope.


2.25
I'm not sad. I'm just aware my attention is going somewhere else at the moment so I can't adequately choose a better option for right now.
Love you SD, but I can never see a reason to vote oneself. You have at least a slim chance at catching a baddie by voting someone other than yourself if you are civ.

2.12
You don't have a civ peek on Daisy.
Oh Elo, Day 1 had me thinking you were civ, well played my dear, well played. But you are not the cop, and this looks like an attempt to stop anyone from believing the cop. It makes my heart sad for being so wrong about you. You did play well, you fooled me. I'm sorry for it upsetting you, but I must vote you.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#911

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Epignosis wrote:The latter. Fraudulent.
So you believe that Wilgy distanced from me, and then after the votes fell on me from yourself, Elohcin, and G-Man, Wilgy jumped to a townie opportunistically, and I am suspicious for joining him there?

If that's accurate, I think it's somewhat reasonable. I think it loses it's steam when DrWilgy makes his claim that he meant to blindside me wasn't able to do so. If we're team mates, then he is guilty of generating a very blatant, unnecessary link between he and I. The movement of the vote might already be some manner of link, but it'd be navigable. That ceases to be true when me makes that claim before I even die. My role is not revealed. Nobody knows for sure if I am bad. He stands nothing to gain by pretending he wanted to blindside me; he gains no civilian credit. I am an unknown entity. It doesn't make sense. The only thing that can come from that is his being linked more securely to me than he was before -- as you are doing right now.

DrWilgy is not an inattentive player.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#912

Post by Epignosis »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Epignosis wrote:The latter. Fraudulent.
So you believe that Wilgy distanced from me, and then after the votes fell on me from yourself, Elohcin, and G-Man, Wilgy jumped to a townie opportunistically, and I am suspicious for joining him there?

If that's accurate, I think it's somewhat reasonable. I think it loses it's steam when DrWilgy makes his claim that he meant to blindside me wasn't able to do so. If we're team mates, then he is guilty of generating a very blatant, unnecessary link between he and I. The movement of the vote might already be some manner of link, but it'd be navigable. That ceases to be true when me makes that claim before I even die. My role is not revealed. Nobody knows for sure if I am bad. He stands nothing to gain by pretending he wanted to blindside me; he gains no civilian credit. I am an unknown entity. It doesn't make sense. The only thing that can come from that is his being linked more securely to me than he was before -- as you are doing right now.

DrWilgy is not an inattentive player.
DrWilgy has to explain his moved vote somehow. This gives him some deniability either way.

I'm arguing with the guy who thinks I got fooled by sig and some inactive. Maybe I am an inattentive player. :meany:

I need to go to bed.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#913

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Epignosis wrote:I'm arguing with the guy who thinks I got fooled by sig and some inactive. Maybe I am an inattentive player. :meany:
That doesn't have to be the only reality. There's no red peek on you. So long as you provide posts I will listen.

If you're going to hold on to your suspicion of me even now, then the onus is on you to illustrate the team mate relationship between Elohcin and I (not DrWilgy and I). That's the relevant dynamic right now.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#914

Post by Quin »

Ricochet, did the baddies have BTSC during Day 0?
Lunalee wrote: Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:13 amQuin's ISO is full of posts that are actually trying to be helpful to the game. This doesn't look like town Quin.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#915

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

I think it would be beneficial if everyone in the game states what they believe to be the most likely baddie trio.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#916

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Some things to be attentive to:

We started with 14 players and are now down 4, all town. I think that means that the most likely current ratio is 6 townies to 3 baddies to 1 independent. Those aren't great numbers, even considering we're about to eliminate a baddie. That could be one mislynch short of LyLo, no matter when the mislynch takes place. Scotty's role could also add complications if he is anti-town (a demo man is a possibility, or alternating night kills between he and the baddies).

The number of power roles and how they are distributed is dependent upon Rico's interpretation of the heist game guidelines. If he interpreted "three power role limit" to mean "just for the town faction", then that's quite different to "for all factions combined". I am inclined to think with the latter mindset, because it is the more dangerous scenario and thus the one best to be prepared for. We have one cop and one unknown independent -- that'd leave room for one more non-vanilla role. It could be on the baddie side, perhaps a godfather. Given the original numbers though (10:3:1), I think it's more likely to be on the town side, most likely the doctor who will be keeping our cop alive through Night 3.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#917

Post by Ricochet »

What movie was it, JJJ?
Quin wrote:Ricochet, did the baddies have BTSC during Day 0?
No.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#918

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Ricochet wrote:What movie was it, JJJ?
The new Star Trek. Visit Tinsel Town for a very brief review, beware of spoilers.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#919

Post by Ricochet »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Ricochet wrote:What movie was it, JJJ?
The new Star Trek. Visit Tinsel Town for a very brief review, beware of spoilers.
Lmao so both players tied to be lynched went to see that movie.

Only one came back alive. :feb:
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#920

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Ricochet wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Ricochet wrote:What movie was it, JJJ?
The new Star Trek. Visit Tinsel Town for a very brief review, beware of spoilers.
Lmao so both players tied to be lynched went to see that movie.

Only one came back alive. :feb:
It's that bad.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#921

Post by Quin »

One more question, Rico.

Did the baddies know their teammates from the beginning, or did they have to wait until they gained BTSC?
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#922

Post by Quin »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think it would be beneficial if everyone in the game states what they believe to be the most likely baddie trio.
Let me gather all my bits and I'll respond to this.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#923

Post by Ricochet »

Quin wrote:One more question, Rico.

Did the baddies know their teammates from the beginning, or did they have to wait until they gained BTSC?
Their limited BTSC access is independent from their knowledge of forming the mafia team. So yes, they were informed from the beginning.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#924

Post by Quin »

JJJ, what is your current opinion on a Eloh/SVS/rabbit baddie trio? That's your answer, by the way.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#925

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Quin wrote:JJJ, what is your current opinion on a Eloh/SVS/rabbit baddie trio? That's your answer, by the way.
I would call that the second-most likely trio behind Eloh/S~V~S/Epignosis. I'd be at least somewhat surprised if the baddies aren't in that pile of 4 (Eloh, S~V~S, Epi, rabbit).
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#926

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

At this point, I struggle to see a scenario in which S~V~S is town.

I don't think Epignosis and rabbit are team mates. So solving the game would seem to be a matter of picking one of those two.

The chance exists of course that I'm wrong about one of my town reads. Wilgy's bizarre style always makes him plausible as a baddie, but I do think Elohcin made him look town. Maybe you're Satan, Quin.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#927

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

S~V~S and rabbit as team mates also presents an interesting dynamic. Rabbit went right after her as soon as she showed up on Day 0/1.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#928

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

I'd like to formally apologize for reaching 300 posts before anyone else reaches 100.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#929

Post by Quin »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:S~V~S and rabbit as team mates also presents an interesting dynamic. Rabbit went right after her as soon as she showed up on Day 0/1.
rabbit also claims he'd have voted SVS on Day 1, but he uses Wilgy's actions as an excuse as to why he voted Vompatti instead of the person he'd been making a case against. It could very easily be distancing.

--

I'd like pretty much anybodies opinions on this hypothetical which might indicate SVS and/or rabbit being bad. I'm referring to the coloured post below.
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Elohcin wrote:Wow, it had been so quiet in here and then BOOM!
Quin wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:Well I never liked you anyway!

Different philosophies, I guess. When I have the option I have pretty much always and will always vote no lynch on Day 1.
Please tell me your philosophy. If I find it disagreeable, I'll surely explain why.
There is not enough information for me, personally. Day 1 is a mix of throwing fingers around aimlessly and hoping you can find something that sticks. There's also a high probability of mislynching, but that's variable on what information is available, but you can't really get that until you have more concrete information.
I see where you are coming from. It is rare that a baddie is lynched on Day 1 due to lack of information. I also think that lynching people is where we get a lot of our information, assuming we get to learn the lynched player's alignment.
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Yes. This is difficult. B/c if the Day 1 lynch is in fact a mislynch, then we have made it that much more difficult for ourselves as our number is possibly two less including a night kill. But the Day 1 lynch does at least give us an opportunity to TRY to get a baddie.

.....

Welcome SVS. Do you know who you are replacing?

I think your observation about the rules, or lack there of, is interesting. Perhaps if we do end on a post count of 4, 9, 13, or multiple of, then the secret rule #4, #9, or #13 will be there to bite us in the butt.

.....
Epignosis wrote:What about those of us who haven't posted at all?
I was wondering where you were at?
Let's assume that G-Man's accusations against Elohcin are correct. Let's assume that because her posts since the info dump aren't doing much for her civ cred. Following are some assertions and my case.

* Eloh knows her teammates

She knows this, but without BTSC, she is unable to contact them.

* SVS replaces a TBD person

Because of the lack of BTSC, Eloh has no idea whether the person replacing out is on her team or not.

* Elohcin asks SVS who she is replacing

It would be important for Elohcin to be sure of any replacements going on in order to avoid accidentally bussing a teammate.

From here it gets a little more iffy.

None of the players who had posted prior to the replacement showed any indication of wanting or needing to be replaced, so we should assume that (at the time) Elohcin was expecting the person being replaced to be from the pile who had yet to post.

At the time of Elohcin asking the above question, the group of people who had not posted consisted of:

Serge
rabbit8
Polo

In remembering that Elohcin would have wanted to be sure of whether SVS was replacing a baddie, and the insight that nobody who had posted obviously wanted to be replaced, it's likely that Elohcin asked SVS in order to make sure that she knew if one of the three mentioned above were being replaced. That leads me to believe that at least one of the three listed above are bad. I'm obviously dropping Polo because he's confirmed civ...and dead.

My conclusion is that at least one of Serge/SVS and rabbit8 are bad.


Or maybe I just spent an hour writing up this lump of garbage because I'm reading too much into a persons curiousity.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#930

Post by Scotty »

Sorry I'm playing like poop y'all. I've been predisposed.

And looky looky what the cat dragged in.

You know what's funny? I was going to play along with GMan's ploy in calling me indie, and make up something because I knew he was full of crap, but his red peek of Elo compounded with her flat out confession made me pause.

I am not indie. I am a vanilla town, and you can take that to the bank.

The amount of time between what appears to be an Elo call out from GMan and Elo's "blowing up" if you will is very quick in the big scope of things. I feel like this whole thing was planned on GMan's part.
What I don't understand in this scenario is a bad Elo being so eager in the early game wanting to be bussed at this point. Is that a gambit that Mafia would employ this early just to add habanero to the soup?

I will be voting Elo but I guess I wonder if she would have a trick up her sleeve or else GMan does.

I can assure you that GMan is NOT the cop, and got lucky with the Elo "peek".
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#931

Post by Scotty »

With Polo dead, I gotta go to the drawing board.
To answer your question, JJJ, I could see an Elo/GMan/Epi team. Or throw SVS in there. That's IF you are good, JJJ. I'm leaning civ on you now that Polo is dead and your posts after Elo outed herself.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#932

Post by S~V~S »

Hi guys, I knew this was going to happen but it happened sooner rather than later.

I will have internet only at work for the next 2 to 3 weeks, so no night or weekends. I have spotty 4G in my apartment, so I am not going to post on phone since it is infuriatingly unreliable.

Will do my best to get caught up today, and again, my apologies.

Linki, no don't throw SVS in there. She isn't bad.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#933

Post by G-Man »

Beautiful catch there Quin. I think you're on to something. One thing that points me slightly to S~V~S as an Eloh teammate is Polo's death. If S~V~S is a baddie, I can almost guarantee that one of the things she told her teammates was to watch out for Polo. He caught on to S~V~S in BSG and it led to a downfall that came sooner than we'd have liked. It's easy to be leery of players who were just baddies because their behavior is freshest in your memory.

Now, S~V~S has had a lot of real life stuff going on so far this game. Initially, that made me waver on her as a baddie because she is committed to a team. She doesn't give up or leave teammates hanging out of negligence. She's going under the radar this game, hiding her online status. I'm not sure if she always does that but I feel like I remember her status being visible during BSG. Her last post anywhere on The Syndicate was early Saturday evening before the lynch post even dropped. With her hidden status, it's impossible to know if she logged in for night time BTSC but it is possible that she has been absent from the game and site since then.

It's a bit of a stretch just now but here goes:

1) S~V~S subs in for one of the quiet players.

2) Eloh knows that at least one of them is a teammate of hers that she hasn't been in contact with, so she asks S~V~S who she's subbing in for.

3) On Night 1, S~V~S tells them to keep an eye out for Polo because he helped bring her down hard in BSG.

4) S~V~S disappears an hour before the D2 lynch post and doesn't come back during the night.

5) Frustrated by not having all three minds present to come up with their kill, Eloh and her other BTSC partner opt for Polo because he's barely playing (which won't disrupt any of the finger-pointing taking place) and S~V~S warned them that he can be very dangerous if he figures any of them out.


Polo was a very weird kill. I'm going to spend time over lunch processing it more.


Linki: I can't tell if Scotty is just denying it or if he is in fact hostile to the civvie cause.

Double linki: S~V~S's last post before now was on Saturday, an hour before the lynch post.


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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#934

Post by S~V~S »

Yeah, I got on at someone elses house while we were watching a movie. I have not had internet. I have not been onsite since that post.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#935

Post by S~V~S »

And if I was gonna revenge kill Polo (something I don't really do) I would have done it ASAP. You are also someone who might want to revenge kill him, or kill him since he read you as well as he did I in BSG.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#936

Post by Scotty »

G-Man wrote:Beautiful catch there Quin. I think you're on to something. One thing that points me slightly to S~V~S as an Eloh teammate is Polo's death. If S~V~S is a baddie, I can almost guarantee that one of the things she told her teammates was to watch out for Polo. He caught on to S~V~S in BSG and it led to a downfall that came sooner than we'd have liked. It's easy to be leery of players who were just baddies because their behavior is freshest in your memory.

Now, S~V~S has had a lot of real life stuff going on so far this game. Initially, that made me waver on her as a baddie because she is committed to a team. She doesn't give up or leave teammates hanging out of negligence. She's going under the radar this game, hiding her online status. I'm not sure if she always does that but I feel like I remember her status being visible during BSG. Her last post anywhere on The Syndicate was early Saturday evening before the lynch post even dropped. With her hidden status, it's impossible to know if she logged in for night time BTSC but it is possible that she has been absent from the game and site since then.

It's a bit of a stretch just now but here goes:

1) S~V~S subs in for one of the quiet players.

2) Eloh knows that at least one of them is a teammate of hers that she hasn't been in contact with, so she asks S~V~S who she's subbing in for.

3) On Night 1, S~V~S tells them to keep an eye out for Polo because he helped bring her down hard in BSG.

4) S~V~S disappears an hour before the D2 lynch post and doesn't come back during the night.

5) Frustrated by not having all three minds present to come up with their kill, Eloh and her other BTSC partner opt for Polo because he's barely playing (which won't disrupt any of the finger-pointing taking place) and S~V~S warned them that he can be very dangerous if he figures any of them out.


Polo was a very weird kill. I'm going to spend time over lunch processing it more.


Linki: I can't tell if Scotty is just denying it or if he is in fact hostile to the civvie cause.

Double linki: S~V~S's last post before now was on Saturday, an hour before the lynch post.


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Lynch me after the first 2 or 3 or however many Mafia are killed and if we still didn't win, then go ahead and lynch me if you're in doubt. I'm not doing much for the civ cause right now even if y'all did believe me. This week is hell like I said.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#937

Post by Scotty »

S~V~S wrote:And if I was gonna revenge kill Polo (something I don't really do) I would have done it ASAP. You are also someone who might want to revenge kill him, or kill him since he read you as well as he did I in BSG.
"I would have killed [Person] if I were Mafia"

I hate these meta arguments. I know you play with those types of meta guidelines, SVS, but I don't always buy that your team has to play that way. I've been on teams before with a player going "they'll never suspect I killed [Player] because I don't usually"
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#938

Post by S~V~S »

Agreed, but since you seem to be in agreement with me re the rest of G Mans argument, why are you bringing this up? Also that remark was directed at G Man, not in general, and HE will 100% know what I am talking about, having had *lots* of Meta discussions when we were bad together last game. I am making a point to HIM; his argument is specious, and he knows it :)

What he is saying about me in that instance applies to him as well.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#939

Post by S~V~S »

Also I find recently that my game seems to rub a lot of people the wrong way; so, I am sorry about that. I yam what I yam.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#940

Post by DrWilgy »

The baddie team is JJJ, Gman, and Daisy.

I was waiting to see if one of these three were going to bring up lylo. Sure enough, JJJ does.

Heists have 3 power roles, we haven't seen any yet and there are 10 of us left. Chances are that mafia has at least one.

If it's a survival role and Gman has it civs potentially lose next cycle.

3 vs 7 or 3 vs 6 (indy scenario) today
3 vs 5 or 3 vs 4 tomorrow
*gman survives us avenging eloh*
3 vs 4 or 3 vs 3 the next day

*worst case scenario where Gman is bomb*
2 vs 3 or 2 vs 2 the next day

If the above team is as I stated, and 3rd party is anti civ, civilians lose.

Thoughts? (Voting for JJJ) There's also more to this but I haven't explained it yet due to shower time.

@Epi it is how I explained yesterday and couldn't swap back. I went of JJJ to spread the votes. Nothing more than trying to get a better analysis. It's harder to see who is on who's team when the votes are stacked.
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@DrWilgy don't post any more k
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#941

Post by rabbit8 »

Quin wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:S~V~S and rabbit as team mates also presents an interesting dynamic. Rabbit went right after her as soon as she showed up on Day 0/1.
rabbit also claims he'd have voted SVS on Day 1, but he uses Wilgy's actions as an excuse as to why he voted Vompatti instead of the person he'd been making a case against. It could very easily be distancing.

--

I'd like pretty much anybodies opinions on this hypothetical which might indicate SVS and/or rabbit being bad. I'm referring to the coloured post below.
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Quin wrote:
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Quin wrote:Well I never liked you anyway!

Different philosophies, I guess. When I have the option I have pretty much always and will always vote no lynch on Day 1.
Please tell me your philosophy. If I find it disagreeable, I'll surely explain why.
There is not enough information for me, personally. Day 1 is a mix of throwing fingers around aimlessly and hoping you can find something that sticks. There's also a high probability of mislynching, but that's variable on what information is available, but you can't really get that until you have more concrete information.
I see where you are coming from. It is rare that a baddie is lynched on Day 1 due to lack of information. I also think that lynching people is where we get a lot of our information, assuming we get to learn the lynched player's alignment.
Vompatti wrote:I think it would be a good idea to start lynching the mafia before they outnumber the civs.
Yes. This is difficult. B/c if the Day 1 lynch is in fact a mislynch, then we have made it that much more difficult for ourselves as our number is possibly two less including a night kill. But the Day 1 lynch does at least give us an opportunity to TRY to get a baddie.

.....

Welcome SVS. Do you know who you are replacing?

I think your observation about the rules, or lack there of, is interesting. Perhaps if we do end on a post count of 4, 9, 13, or multiple of, then the secret rule #4, #9, or #13 will be there to bite us in the butt.

.....
Epignosis wrote:What about those of us who haven't posted at all?
I was wondering where you were at?
Let's assume that G-Man's accusations against Elohcin are correct. Let's assume that because her posts since the info dump aren't doing much for her civ cred. Following are some assertions and my case.

* Eloh knows her teammates

She knows this, but without BTSC, she is unable to contact them.

* SVS replaces a TBD person

Because of the lack of BTSC, Eloh has no idea whether the person replacing out is on her team or not.

* Elohcin asks SVS who she is replacing

It would be important for Elohcin to be sure of any replacements going on in order to avoid accidentally bussing a teammate.

From here it gets a little more iffy.

None of the players who had posted prior to the replacement showed any indication of wanting or needing to be replaced, so we should assume that (at the time) Elohcin was expecting the person being replaced to be from the pile who had yet to post.

At the time of Elohcin asking the above question, the group of people who had not posted consisted of:

Serge
rabbit8
Polo

In remembering that Elohcin would have wanted to be sure of whether SVS was replacing a baddie, and the insight that nobody who had posted obviously wanted to be replaced, it's likely that Elohcin asked SVS in order to make sure that she knew if one of the three mentioned above were being replaced. That leads me to believe that at least one of the three listed above are bad. I'm obviously dropping Polo because he's confirmed civ...and dead.

My conclusion is that at least one of Serge/SVS and rabbit8 are bad.


Or maybe I just spent an hour writing up this lump of garbage because I'm reading too much into a persons curiousity.
I never used Wigly as a reason to vote for Vomps. Why you making shit up?

You want to lynch SVS, I'm down. Have been since day one. I will vote for her whenever.
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#942

Post by G-Man »

Breaking down all the options, there are 21 possible team combinations left. Eloh has tapped out, so we know she is bad due to that on top of my red peek. Thus, she is the first part of each of these combos:

Eloh-Wilgy-Epi

Eloh-Wilgy-JJJ

Eloh-Wilgy- Quin

Eloh-Wilgy-rabbit

Eloh-Wilgy-Daisy

Eloh-Wilgy-SVS

Eloh-Epi-JJJ

Eloh-Epi-Quin

Eloh-Epi-rabbit

Eloh-Epi-Daisy

Eloh-Epi-SVS

Eloh-JJJ-Quin

Eloh-JJJ-rabbit

Eloh-JJJ-Daisy

Eloh-JJJ-SVS

Eloh-Quin-rabbit

Eloh-Quin-Daisy

Eloh-Quin-SVS

Eloh-rabbit-Daisy

Eloh-rabbit-SVS

Eloh-Daisy-SVS


If there are any of those combos that you feel don't make sense, please provide a reason why we should not consider it. Anyone trying to shoot down a combo that they are on should know that I will just ignore that input because your input is subjective. I will attempt to whittle these down myself over the next two days. Think, talk, repeat. If we can deduce another baddie today, we can always leave Eloh on the back burner. Heck, if we can deduce all three of them, maybe they'll forfeit like in Arrested Development.


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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#943

Post by S~V~S »

I voted for Eloh. Since she appears to be bad for sure, why backburner her?
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#944

Post by rabbit8 »

S~V~S wrote:I voted for Eloh. Since she appears to be bad for sure, why backburner her?

Yeah, I just caught up. lol seems Eloh must go. :srsnod:
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#945

Post by Elohcin »

S~V~S wrote:I voted for Eloh. Since she appears to be bad for sure, why backburner her?
B/c I just wanted to see how gullible you all were in a game where infodumping is allowed. :haha: :haha: :haha:

:disappoint: :disappoint: :disappoint:
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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#946

Post by Elohcin »

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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#947

Post by G-Man »

Back on page 16 right now. I like Epi's early arguments against JJJ. I now have two theories about the baddies if JJJ is one of them:

1) The original theory- JJJ acts like the cop and claims a Day 0 peek on sig in order to make himself look better by killing sig N1, flipping him as a civ.

2) The revised theory- JJJ acts like the cop and claims a Day 0 peek on sig in an attempt to draw out the real cop. JJJ and his teammates know sig is a civ anyway and his actions make them think sig is the cop. JJJ tries to cover his butt Day 2.

Claiming sig as his Day 0 peek serves a few purposes. It makes him look like he might be the cop, which would be a tempting proposition as JJJ is an awesome civvie. It also might make sig look bad if JJJ is lynched and flips baddie. While we all know the game of false implication, it's always an option because you just might get lucky. Even if it doesn't create a mislynch, it's at least a distraction to hide behind.

Either way, JJJ is bold for taking this course of action. If sig had flipped civvie cop, everyone would know JJJ does not have peeks. That could lead to his lynching. Yet, making a scene of himself early would be a distraction big enough for his teammates to hide in. We know they didn't have BTSC until Night 1, so the Day 1 thread discussion was probably pretty delicate and cautious. Come Day 2, they have a loose plan and contingencies in mind.

Succeed or fail, JJJ's go-big-or-go-home mantra and his skill as a player certainly makes this a plot worth trying. At the start of the game, no one even knew if there was a cop, so why not take the chance? You either trick a few people to believe in you or you flush out the real cop. In this case, JJJ and his team misread sig and JJJ swooped in early to clean up the mess by continuing the ruse.

That doesn't explain why they didn't try to kill DrWilgy last night since he was also questioning of cop-like assertions and JJJ as a baddie doesn't explain why Polo was killed other than he wasn't on anyone's radar anymore and was thus not useful as a pawn to them. Maybe JJJ had inklings after Day 2 that Wilgy or I was the cop but wanted another day to be sure about it.

For now, I give Epi a slight civ read and JJJ a moderate baddie read.


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Re: [Day 3] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#948

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

If I'm bad, you never make it out of Night 2 alive G-Man.
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Re: [Day 2] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#949

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

G-Man wrote:Because unless there are multiple roles that can investigate at night, you couldn't have had a peek last night.


2.06
I literally facepalmed when this post happened. I thought you were overreacting to my fake red peek ruse and exposing yourself earlier than ever necessary.

You're a corpse right now if I'm bad. I don't leave a cop alive in this setup, it's suicidal.
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Re: [Day 2] Triskaidekaphobia Mafia

#950

Post by G-Man »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
G-Man wrote:Because unless there are multiple roles that can investigate at night, you couldn't have had a peek last night.


2.06
I literally facepalmed when this post happened. I thought you were overreacting to my fake red peek ruse and exposing yourself earlier than ever necessary.

You're a corpse right now if I'm bad. I don't leave a cop alive in this setup, it's suicidal.
Baddies weren't paying attention then? Who of Wilgy, Quin, rabbit, Spacedaisy, and SVS do you see as being capable of not picking up on that?

I have a very hard time seeing Epi as a baddie. He's so detail-oriented that a post like that would have stood out to him as well.


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