Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

[Creature]

Dunno feel free to read my string of posts that led me to vote JJJ before EOD4:

Maybe we sleep twice to narrow down the POE

We don't have a single consensus town anyway

I think we shouldn't be afraid of tying wagons

We should use some CFDing and if a tie happens then just sleep the next day

Wait sleep is not an option in the poll

So yeah we shouldn't tie

We should never tie in this situation, we lose our last miselim if we do

Also we can't even sleep the next day because wolves can snipe out of the tie into a mislynch

I still would rather vote JJJ or Boq.

Meh won't oppose Alison lynch much atp

Damn this is a really bad time for me to be playing mafia

[VOTE: JaggedJimmyJay] aubergine

I beloeve there's almost always at least one wolf within Alison/JJJ and if there isn't then we really lost with like three experienced players on town's side. Maybe I'd include Boq in this list.

I still would rather vote JJJ or Boq.

I hard block a Boq chop

I don't get it. It feels like he's exclusively pushing town atp in the world Alison is town.

Huh did Boq ever push Alison?

I still would rather vote JJJ or Boq.

I hard block a Boq chop

I don't get it. It feels like he's exclusively pushing town atp in the world Alison is town.

We could find out if Alison is town.

I'm suspicious of you though.

Sometimes I wonder if Nate gained WIM because his faction is close to winning.

I still would rather vote JJJ or Boq.

I hard block a Boq chop

I don't get it. It feels like he's exclusively pushing town atp in the world Alison is town.

Maybe I am dumb, can you show me what you mean?

I just dont like the idea of a boq chop when he isnt around to talk it feels opportunistic and wolfy

Okay we can do JJJ instead

I'm afraid Boq will still have to go eventually

8 minutes left

I might miss EOD

I still would rather vote JJJ or Boq.

I hard block a Boq chop

I don't get it. It feels like he's exclusively pushing town atp in the world Alison is town.

Maybe I am dumb, can you show me what you mean?

I just dont like the idea of a boq chop when he isnt around to talk it feels opportunistic and wolfy

Okay we can do JJJ instead

I'm afraid Boq will still have to go eventually

Not that I hate the idea but are you shielding Lucy?

lucy's list (Alison/Marmot/me) looks bad and likely all town in town!Alison world so no.

[Creature]

I'm trying to not fall asleep and my eye is aching for some reason

[Boquise]

To ensure I am not misunderstood in this post, I am following this method (click) to presume a mafia agenda. That means I will be theorizing a mafia-aligned purpose for the posts I encounter. That doesn't mean necessarily that I think it's correct or true. It's a way of exploring a possible world both analytically and emotionally.

Creature

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

I will try my best not to spam the game before it actually starts, promise, k

I won't

Creature the mafioso had every intent of meeting his classic town volume tells but simply wasn't able to force himself through to the WIM necessary to achieve it.

Spoiler: show

ITT people discuss how to play champs but don't follow their own advices

Creature the mafioso issues this vague shade at unnamed player(s) to dampen the attitude of collaboration and perhaps try to erode trust in those who are vocal and eager to solve.

Spoiler: show

Is it a bad idea to read JJJ based on how eager he seems to be?

Is it a bad idea to read JJJ based on how eager he seems to be?

Yes. I have never known him to have a mafia game where he was not eager - if I remember correctly, the first time I ever played with him I (incorrectly) wolfread him because his eagerness seemed so over the top I was convinced it was faked.

I tend to wolfread experienced players for being eager (for some reason most of them prefer wolfing because less effort?), but meh.

Case in point.

Spoiler: show

You strike me as less than eager.

Yes, I guess I got a bad rep of always moaning about the game being unfun.

I can get surges of WIM when I feel like the game is going in a good direction though.

This provides nice slank cover when you never think a game is going in a good direction.

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: NateTheLesser] aubergine

Felt the least impressive so far and was barely touched.

If Nate is town, then this kind of vote is about as token as it gets for the mafioso. He is understated, formal, and new to the community, so he is a pretty easy target and less likely to draw controversy when you push him.

Spoiler: show

If all of Alison, JJJ and Mac are town then we're doing pretty good.

For Creature the mafioso this serves as a generic pocket. It's also not entirely a reflection of where Creature has been in his assessment of the gamestate at other junctures of even the same day phase.

Spoiler: show

I could see it being Marmot + NaateTheLesser

Maybe DrWilgy for third

Creature strikes me as someone who is considerate of LHF, so to have three people in this theoretical team that [at the time] could be called potential LHF could be run-of-the-mill mafia indicative.

Spoiler: show

Did anything happen?

Is falcon a wagon because he's wolfy or just POE?

I hope we're doing well.

What stops lucy from being wolf who had an outburst of energy D0?

Are you pushing a wolf agenda here?

How do you think I'm gonna answer that question, even if I were a wolf?

You already pushed me like this when you were wolf in two games so I'm gonna assume you've randed wolf again.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

omgus

Spoiler: show

I feel good about:

Alison
Boquise
Creature
fingersplints
JaggedJimmyJay
MacDougall

Slightly worried those are the most experienced players here though

The sentence at the bottom tells the story for Creature the mafioso. The game's most contrarian player provided a very with-the-grain set of early town reads. Of the five not-Creature-himself reads, four are still alive (the other is Mac).

Spoiler: show

Not sure if I am fan of this gamestate

I know I am town and I'm not really sure on falcon being wolf

I'm afraid we aren't placing pressure on any wolf here

It feels like nothing will happen until the last few minutes where a lot of sketchy players will lazily pile on me to avoid a tie.

Please do actual hunting instead of waiting until the last minute to do so.

Guess I'll have to hope falcon is wolf here otherwise town already started pretty horrible and is unwilling to reevaluate.

EOD1's version of Creature's disdainful posts. Creature the mafioso had a hand in creating this gamestate per the previous sets of reads.

Spoiler: show

I kinda think that there is a necessary auto period here.

Like there is a line and those below it have to all die before those above it because if the mafia are all above it the game is already over and we are wasting our time and that's very unlikely.

Line

Dyslexicon
Creature
Falcon
DrWilgy

For some reason I don't want to put Fingersplints below the line. I think Dyslexicon has the most chance of being town but I can't reasonably put him above it.

This post is just terrible and you all are completely ignoring how terrible this post is

If there's any wolf within Mac's list it's most likely Dyslexicon

[VOTE: Dyslexicon] aubergine

Creature the mafioso has a sense of humor.

Spoiler: show

Shit deadline is 5 hours from now

Have we settled on a wolf?

Is there a good case for Fingersplints? I'm not sure if I can read them.

JJJ still voting me is highly disappointing

I don't even know who to sheep

Whatever

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

[VOTE: Dyslexicon] aubergine

[VOTE: EnderWiggin] aubergine

This thread is a mess and I wonder if wolves are here celebrating their second mislynch

Be careful, if anyone votes Fingersplints now, Wilgy can tie it.

Ok I won't vote because I know how much Alison hates EOD flashwagons

I think it's funny that with the exception of boq, all my scum reads are on me.

Oh well. Yeet Ender when I'm gone.

Welp looks like this is a mislynch

This is probably time to stop voting for LHF

We've been following Mac's legacy list so far though

Creature the mafioso is content to punt on late Day 2. Three votes, three town, and again the token pre-mischop despairing.

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: EnderWiggin] aubergine

Right back to it at the start of Day 3.

Spoiler: show

This thread feels like wolves' party

This thread feels like wolves' party

what does that mean

idk

I'm looking at a lot of posts and keep thinking "this could be a wolf with high WIM" especially after we already mislynched twice.

Creature, have you read anything?

No

Creature the mafioso still has a sense of humor.

Spoiler: show

lucy is one I went through

Dyslexicon feels like another

Are you able to point to or just recall any particular posts that gave you that impression

The posts in the previous page

These?

only got 4h of sleep last night lol

interesting alison vote

@Alison yodelayheehoo

Yes, I went through these and asked myself why couldn't it be wolf happy with the current gamestate.

Creature the mafioso is forced to provide an explanation for a poorly faked read.

Spoiler: show

Damn we are going to mislynch again aren't we?

Feels a lot like the falcon and DrWilgy mislynches which happened because of a seemingly lack of any other option.

[VOTE: NateTheLesser] aubergine

"lack of any other option" -- Creature the mafioso plays some role in the generation of an unfavorable gamestate and then handwaves town misteps as though they were unavoidable. Poll dynamics suggest this is untrue.

Spoiler: show

Feels a lot like the falcon and DrWilgy mislynches which happened because of a seemingly lack of any other option.

Why don't we consider one of Alison and Jay then?

Ok who is most likely wolf between them?

That's for you to decide.

Yes, but I don't know where I stand on them.

I'm still hesitant to touch Alison today because I believe Mac is a good Alison reader and Seanzie immediately caught Alison in the Rave Master game. Mac had Alison as town and I don't remember Seanzie going after Alison this game.

Creature the mafioso has grumbled about LHF chops repeatedly, and when presented with two options that are distinctly "high" hanging fruits he goes full waffle. The agenda of actions is distinct from the agenda of words.

Spoiler: show

Ok if there's wolf within Alison/JJJ it's most likely JJJ

Mostly because I can see him being competent wolf faking solving but also being buried by burden of proficiency

Why does this apply to me rather than to Alison?

I've seen Alison live long and be wrong often. For some reason I see you as being a better wolf hunter than her.

If Creature the mafioso is a thing, Alison the mafioso fits quite well.

Spoiler: show

I'm wondering who is wolfier between Boq and JJJ. I don't want another mislynch.

[VOTE: Boquise] aubergine

Straight into this on Day 4.

Does this mafia agenda make sense?

Technically, sure. It wouldn't be a "shocking" mafia agenda. There were some little points where I felt a little bit silly presuming the mafia agenda, particularly in the earliest portions of his posts. So some of these points are not compelling to me. If there's a lasting concern here, it's that I think there's been a little distance separating Creature's lamentations about the game state and Creature's actual pushes and votes. The game state is as much his own as it is most others'.

JJJ's last iso case post was on Creature

[robyn]

f5 if this is a mislynch lol

[Boquise]

Creature, you believe JJJ's plan was to only push villagers. Why are you discounting the fact that his very first real push was on me?

[Creature]

that’s not how i expected you to respond

How did you expect me to respond?

Do you have thoughts on the vote stuff? Nobody's really said much.

trying to read you atm, how confident are you that creature is a wolf?

I've made it clear that I think there's a wolf in creature or Allison bc at least one teammate would want to be on his wagon at eod.

Not necessarily. JJJ at least initially seemed focused on pushing mislynches so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another mislynch. I remember there being like three or more alternate wagons (Alison, Boquise, dunno who else) before I moved to JJJ so it was definitely possible.

so JJJ focused on pushing misyeets, so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another misyeet
and your wagon examples for that theory is me and Alison.

I thought you scum read me?

I'm pretty sure there were four wagons with two votes EOD4 before I moved my vote from you to JJJ. I just don't remember who was the fourth wagon alongside JJJ, you and Alison.

[Boquise]

that’s not how i expected you to respond

How did you expect me to respond?

Do you have thoughts on the vote stuff? Nobody's really said much.

trying to read you atm, how confident are you that creature is a wolf?

I've made it clear that I think there's a wolf in creature or Allison bc at least one teammate would want to be on his wagon at eod.

Not necessarily. JJJ at least initially seemed focused on pushing mislynches so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another mislynch. I remember there being like three or more alternate wagons (Alison, Boquise, dunno who else) before I moved to JJJ so it was definitely possible.

so JJJ focused on pushing misyeets, so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another misyeet
and your wagon examples for that theory is me and Alison.

I thought you scum read me?

I'm pretty sure there were four wagons with two votes EOD4 before I moved my vote from you to JJJ. I just don't remember who was the fourth wagon alongside JJJ, you and Alison.

so how does this work along with wolves pushing villagers and I was one of the pushed players?

[Creature]

that’s not how i expected you to respond

How did you expect me to respond?

Do you have thoughts on the vote stuff? Nobody's really said much.

trying to read you atm, how confident are you that creature is a wolf?

I've made it clear that I think there's a wolf in creature or Allison bc at least one teammate would want to be on his wagon at eod.

Not necessarily. JJJ at least initially seemed focused on pushing mislynches so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another mislynch. I remember there being like three or more alternate wagons (Alison, Boquise, dunno who else) before I moved to JJJ so it was definitely possible.

Jay didn't even vote

It felt like he was aiming to survive and get another mislynch

[RondoDimBuckle]

If Nate is scum, he is scum with either Creature or Fingers. Scum is forced to distance. That is like the largest elimination I can do in teams, considering Creature could be wolf with Rondo and Fingers too, and Fingers with Rondo as well.

I am aware that I might be ultra pocketed by Rondo but I want to hold that line for a bit longer. Rondo is not scum with Nate at the very least, so if Nate flips scum I would clear Rondo completely.

Hahah finger and I would be so dysfunctional. I could see me and creature working from your pov tho

[Creature]

How did you expect me to respond?

Do you have thoughts on the vote stuff? Nobody's really said much.

trying to read you atm, how confident are you that creature is a wolf?

I've made it clear that I think there's a wolf in creature or Allison bc at least one teammate would want to be on his wagon at eod.

Not necessarily. JJJ at least initially seemed focused on pushing mislynches so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another mislynch. I remember there being like three or more alternate wagons (Alison, Boquise, dunno who else) before I moved to JJJ so it was definitely possible.

so JJJ focused on pushing misyeets, so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another misyeet
and your wagon examples for that theory is me and Alison.

I thought you scum read me?

I'm pretty sure there were four wagons with two votes EOD4 before I moved my vote from you to JJJ. I just don't remember who was the fourth wagon alongside JJJ, you and Alison.

so how does this work along with wolves pushing villagers and I was one of the pushed players?

Town wasn't getting a clear wagon and wolves could easily shift to one of the two non-wolf wagons in the world you're a wolf.

[Boquise]

Creature/Nate probably not both mafia. This is one of my more confident views. If we assume Creature is mafia, then Nate is the token low-key easy target.

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: NateTheLesser] aubergine

Felt the least impressive so far and was barely touched.

Do you think it's meaningful that Nate was barely touched?

It's somewhat concerning as wolves ignoring each other is a valid strategy.

I kinda want to do Nate the most because he seems pretty under and it feels like he's being forcefully shoved into the townreads list and/or barely evaluated at all. As comparison, I often see myself going from townread to wolfread or viceversa.

[VOTE: NateTheLesser] aubergine

I still don't get the Nate townreads. From which weirdverse did they come from?

Nate, Sean, Marmot



83% chance of at least 1 scum in that lil' group

I kinda want to do Nate the most because he seems pretty under and it feels like he's being forcefully shoved into the townreads list and/or barely evaluated at all. As comparison, I often see myself going from townread to wolfread or viceversa.

How do you all read Marmot and Seanzie?

Hmm. Both came to a me/Sean/Marmot team.

I'm currently only wolfreading you. I don't know how I feel about Marmot and Seanzie and that's why I asked the question in the third quote.

hmmmmm

[robyn]

tl;dr conclusion from D0-D2 Jay spew:

- Boq and Creature look good off it. (Rondo and lucy also look good, though I think most people have them cleared anyway.)
- Nate looks bad. Finger a little bad.
- Jay was almost certainly making very opportunistic pushes on early on, and it might be worth reflecting on which LHF he didn't feel inclined to push, because he was very happy to push people like falcon, Wilgy, and Ender. Names that spring to mind include Nate, finger, and Rondo. I suspect the first two, and think the third is almost certainly town.

.

[Creature]

f5 if this is a mislynch lol

I know. Hence why I really want to get this right.

[Boquise]

trying to read you atm, how confident are you that creature is a wolf?

I've made it clear that I think there's a wolf in creature or Allison bc at least one teammate would want to be on his wagon at eod.

Not necessarily. JJJ at least initially seemed focused on pushing mislynches so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another mislynch. I remember there being like three or more alternate wagons (Alison, Boquise, dunno who else) before I moved to JJJ so it was definitely possible.

so JJJ focused on pushing misyeets, so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another misyeet
and your wagon examples for that theory is me and Alison.

I thought you scum read me?

I'm pretty sure there were four wagons with two votes EOD4 before I moved my vote from you to JJJ. I just don't remember who was the fourth wagon alongside JJJ, you and Alison.

so how does this work along with wolves pushing villagers and I was one of the pushed players?

Town wasn't getting a clear wagon and wolves could easily shift to one of the two non-wolf wagons in the world you're a wolf.

You realise that your narrative "JJJ pushed for villagers" should clear me, right?

[Boquise]

Day 2 blind interactions

Spoiler: show

Yellow -- no reason to dissociate
Green -- less likely to be mafia teammates

Alright. This was a bit of a frustrating exercise for me in the end. This game thread is, for lack of a better word, odd. The environment of gameplay has been very positive and warm, and I think that's generally a good thing. However, a byproduct of this constant warmth may be that players have been less inclined overall toward emotional spikes, and those spikes are often the kinds of things that facilitate green blocks in my charts. I don't suggest anyone change, or certainly don't add toxicity just for the sake of making reads. Sometimes them's the breaks.

So that is to say that this thing is more yellow than I would like for it to be. The first objective with these charts is, for me at least, always to try to reduce the breadth of the suspect pool by finding people who don't fit on many mafia teams. The closest I was able to come here was DrWilgy, and that has come with some controversy already. Nonetheless, that is better than nothing. It means to me that moving forward, if Wilgy is to be viewed as a prospective chop, then it is the responsibility of any town members engaging in that vote to ensure they think there are viable teams that fit and that they're not operating in low-probability universes.

Another player that I think looks decent emerging from this effort is Marmot. It's not entirely conclusive, because some of his fits remain with players that I would POE, but at least quantitatively I don't think he fits into as many theoretical worlds as most other players could.

For the time being I am going to roast on this and determine what intersections can be identified, if any, with the other analytic approaches folks have provided this day phase.

gonna take a stab at looking at these colours tbh

[Creature]

I've made it clear that I think there's a wolf in creature or Allison bc at least one teammate would want to be on his wagon at eod.

Not necessarily. JJJ at least initially seemed focused on pushing mislynches so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another mislynch. I remember there being like three or more alternate wagons (Alison, Boquise, dunno who else) before I moved to JJJ so it was definitely possible.

so JJJ focused on pushing misyeets, so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another misyeet
and your wagon examples for that theory is me and Alison.

I thought you scum read me?

I'm pretty sure there were four wagons with two votes EOD4 before I moved my vote from you to JJJ. I just don't remember who was the fourth wagon alongside JJJ, you and Alison.

so how does this work along with wolves pushing villagers and I was one of the pushed players?

Town wasn't getting a clear wagon and wolves could easily shift to one of the two non-wolf wagons in the world you're a wolf.

You realise that your narrative "JJJ pushed for villagers" should clear me, right?

Perhaps. I'm still open to reconsider, but first we must lynch a wolf today.

[robyn]

Day 2 blind interactions

Spoiler: show

Yellow -- no reason to dissociate
Green -- less likely to be mafia teammates

Alright. This was a bit of a frustrating exercise for me in the end. This game thread is, for lack of a better word, odd. The environment of gameplay has been very positive and warm, and I think that's generally a good thing. However, a byproduct of this constant warmth may be that players have been less inclined overall toward emotional spikes, and those spikes are often the kinds of things that facilitate green blocks in my charts. I don't suggest anyone change, or certainly don't add toxicity just for the sake of making reads. Sometimes them's the breaks.

So that is to say that this thing is more yellow than I would like for it to be. The first objective with these charts is, for me at least, always to try to reduce the breadth of the suspect pool by finding people who don't fit on many mafia teams. The closest I was able to come here was DrWilgy, and that has come with some controversy already. Nonetheless, that is better than nothing. It means to me that moving forward, if Wilgy is to be viewed as a prospective chop, then it is the responsibility of any town members engaging in that vote to ensure they think there are viable teams that fit and that they're not operating in low-probability universes.

Another player that I think looks decent emerging from this effort is Marmot. It's not entirely conclusive, because some of his fits remain with players that I would POE, but at least quantitatively I don't think he fits into as many theoretical worlds as most other players could.

For the time being I am going to roast on this and determine what intersections can be identified, if any, with the other analytic approaches folks have provided this day phase.

gonna take a stab at looking at these colours tbh

do you play on white (prosilver) or normal mafia syndicate screen? same to you @Creature

[Boquise]

Not necessarily. JJJ at least initially seemed focused on pushing mislynches so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another mislynch. I remember there being like three or more alternate wagons (Alison, Boquise, dunno who else) before I moved to JJJ so it was definitely possible.

so JJJ focused on pushing misyeets, so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another misyeet
and your wagon examples for that theory is me and Alison.

I thought you scum read me?

I'm pretty sure there were four wagons with two votes EOD4 before I moved my vote from you to JJJ. I just don't remember who was the fourth wagon alongside JJJ, you and Alison.

so how does this work along with wolves pushing villagers and I was one of the pushed players?

Town wasn't getting a clear wagon and wolves could easily shift to one of the two non-wolf wagons in the world you're a wolf.

You realise that your narrative "JJJ pushed for villagers" should clear me, right?

Perhaps. I'm still open to reconsider, but first we must lynch a wolf today.

You are currently voting for a town player and against your own theory.

[Boquise]

Day 2 blind interactions

Spoiler: show

Yellow -- no reason to dissociate
Green -- less likely to be mafia teammates

Alright. This was a bit of a frustrating exercise for me in the end. This game thread is, for lack of a better word, odd. The environment of gameplay has been very positive and warm, and I think that's generally a good thing. However, a byproduct of this constant warmth may be that players have been less inclined overall toward emotional spikes, and those spikes are often the kinds of things that facilitate green blocks in my charts. I don't suggest anyone change, or certainly don't add toxicity just for the sake of making reads. Sometimes them's the breaks.

So that is to say that this thing is more yellow than I would like for it to be. The first objective with these charts is, for me at least, always to try to reduce the breadth of the suspect pool by finding people who don't fit on many mafia teams. The closest I was able to come here was DrWilgy, and that has come with some controversy already. Nonetheless, that is better than nothing. It means to me that moving forward, if Wilgy is to be viewed as a prospective chop, then it is the responsibility of any town members engaging in that vote to ensure they think there are viable teams that fit and that they're not operating in low-probability universes.

Another player that I think looks decent emerging from this effort is Marmot. It's not entirely conclusive, because some of his fits remain with players that I would POE, but at least quantitatively I don't think he fits into as many theoretical worlds as most other players could.

For the time being I am going to roast on this and determine what intersections can be identified, if any, with the other analytic approaches folks have provided this day phase.

gonna take a stab at looking at these colours tbh

do you play on white (prosilver) or normal mafia syndicate screen? same to you @Creature

uuh normal? It is dark? Why?

[Creature]

Ok I will trust Alison today

[VOTE: NateTheLesser] aubergine

[Creature]

tl;dr conclusion from D0-D2 Jay spew:

- Boq and Creature look good off it. (Rondo and lucy also look good, though I think most people have them cleared anyway.)
- Nate looks bad. Finger a little bad.
- Jay was almost certainly making very opportunistic pushes on early on, and it might be worth reflecting on which LHF he didn't feel inclined to push, because he was very happy to push people like falcon, Wilgy, and Ender. Names that spring to mind include Nate, finger, and Rondo. I suspect the first two, and think the third is almost certainly town.

[robyn]

Day 2 blind interactions

Spoiler: show

Yellow -- no reason to dissociate
Green -- less likely to be mafia teammates

Alright. This was a bit of a frustrating exercise for me in the end. This game thread is, for lack of a better word, odd. The environment of gameplay has been very positive and warm, and I think that's generally a good thing. However, a byproduct of this constant warmth may be that players have been less inclined overall toward emotional spikes, and those spikes are often the kinds of things that facilitate green blocks in my charts. I don't suggest anyone change, or certainly don't add toxicity just for the sake of making reads. Sometimes them's the breaks.

So that is to say that this thing is more yellow than I would like for it to be. The first objective with these charts is, for me at least, always to try to reduce the breadth of the suspect pool by finding people who don't fit on many mafia teams. The closest I was able to come here was DrWilgy, and that has come with some controversy already. Nonetheless, that is better than nothing. It means to me that moving forward, if Wilgy is to be viewed as a prospective chop, then it is the responsibility of any town members engaging in that vote to ensure they think there are viable teams that fit and that they're not operating in low-probability universes.

Another player that I think looks decent emerging from this effort is Marmot. It's not entirely conclusive, because some of his fits remain with players that I would POE, but at least quantitatively I don't think he fits into as many theoretical worlds as most other players could.

For the time being I am going to roast on this and determine what intersections can be identified, if any, with the other analytic approaches folks have provided this day phase.

gonna take a stab at looking at these colours tbh

do you play on white (prosilver) or normal mafia syndicate screen? same to you @Creature

uuh normal? It is dark? Why?

just curious

[Creature]

Day 2 blind interactions

Spoiler: show

Yellow -- no reason to dissociate
Green -- less likely to be mafia teammates

Alright. This was a bit of a frustrating exercise for me in the end. This game thread is, for lack of a better word, odd. The environment of gameplay has been very positive and warm, and I think that's generally a good thing. However, a byproduct of this constant warmth may be that players have been less inclined overall toward emotional spikes, and those spikes are often the kinds of things that facilitate green blocks in my charts. I don't suggest anyone change, or certainly don't add toxicity just for the sake of making reads. Sometimes them's the breaks.

So that is to say that this thing is more yellow than I would like for it to be. The first objective with these charts is, for me at least, always to try to reduce the breadth of the suspect pool by finding people who don't fit on many mafia teams. The closest I was able to come here was DrWilgy, and that has come with some controversy already. Nonetheless, that is better than nothing. It means to me that moving forward, if Wilgy is to be viewed as a prospective chop, then it is the responsibility of any town members engaging in that vote to ensure they think there are viable teams that fit and that they're not operating in low-probability universes.

Another player that I think looks decent emerging from this effort is Marmot. It's not entirely conclusive, because some of his fits remain with players that I would POE, but at least quantitatively I don't think he fits into as many theoretical worlds as most other players could.

For the time being I am going to roast on this and determine what intersections can be identified, if any, with the other analytic approaches folks have provided this day phase.

gonna take a stab at looking at these colours tbh

do you play on white (prosilver) or normal mafia syndicate screen? same to you @Creature

I play on dark screen because I want to preserve my eyes

[Boquise]

it is interesting that jjj made nate/creature unaligned and fingers/nate too

[Boquise]

If Nate is scum, he is scum with either Creature or Fingers. Scum is forced to distance. That is like the largest elimination I can do in teams, considering Creature could be wolf with Rondo and Fingers too, and Fingers with Rondo as well.

I am aware that I might be ultra pocketed by Rondo but I want to hold that line for a bit longer. Rondo is not scum with Nate at the very least, so if Nate flips scum I would clear Rondo completely.

Hahah finger and I would be so dysfunctional. I could see me and creature working from your pov tho

Hahahah

[NateTheLesser]

Good luck! Read my VCA! I hope it's right!

[robyn]

get some sleep after this @Boquise

[Boquise]

[VOTE: Natethelesser] aubergine

sorry if i am wrong

[robyn]

Good luck! Read my VCA! I hope it's right!

i enjoyed playing with you!!!!!

[Boquise]

get some sleep after this @Boquise

i'll try tbh

[Creature]

Oh...

[robyn]

is it too much to ask for you to make a waterfall for ur own lynch lol

[Creature]

I hate this now

[G-Man]

CASE FILE: The Halvøsen Ridge Incident- Losing Time (ctd)

From the Original Investigation File (translated): The elements continued to weaken the members of the expedition as they waited for their compatriots to return. Despite the severity of Astrid Mauseth’s injuries, Kristian Tufte’s selfless attempt to warm her caused him to succumb to hypothermia first sometime between 02:00 and 03:00 [a.m.].



Contemporary Notes: While nothing would likely have prevented Mauseth’s wound from turning fatal, Kristian Tufte was concerned about preventing the cold from taking her first. She was found layered in Tufte’s light jacket as well as Didrik Bohler’s coat. She was better-insulated as a result, but at the price of Tufte’s life.

Whether you find it romantic or melodramatic, a popular assertion at the time was the Tufte died holding Mauseth in his arms, begging for her forgiveness for his murder of Varland. The truth is that we don’t know if such a positioning ever happened, as pictures of the recovery show clear signs that Tufte was dragged away from the others, almost certainly after his passing. This would have allowed the remaining members of the party to draw closer to each other and cling to the false hope that their friends would return from up the mountain and that their shared body heat would be enough to sustain them until that time.

Tufte’s death, coupled with Mauseth’s worsening condition, was likely the impetus for Bohler’s decision to brave an ascent of his own.

NateTheLesser is dead. He was a member of the Halvøsen hiking party and a civilian.

It is now Night 5.

Spoiler: show

@Alison
@Boquise
@Creature
@fingersplints
@lucy
@NateTheLesser
@RondoDimBuckle

[G-Man]

NOTE FROM THE HOST:

The night post is almost certain to be late tonight. I have an executive council meeting this evening, and they tend to run long. We will start the day as early as possible once I get home from the meeting.

Spoiler: show

@Alison
@Boquise
@Creature
@fingersplints
@lucy
@RondoDimBuckle

[G-Man]

CASE FILE: The Halvøsen Ridge Incident- Losing Time (ctd)

From the Original Investigation File (translated): Despite attempts to treat and warm Astrid Mauseth, she expired sometime not long after [Kristian] Tufte. It is unclear how long after Didrik Bohler began his ascent that she died. Bohler’s departure left Austad and Egner behind.



Contemporary Notes: Initial reports suggested that Astrid Mauseth sustained a compound fracture to her right leg while fleeing down the mountain. While possible, I find it not very plausible an explanation. Given her status as an experienced hiker and mountaineer, contemporary notes of the tragedy seem to smack of sexism. While shallow even for its day, the poorly formed theory is still better than the theories that Kristian Tufte turned his anger on her after allegedly pushing Varland into a ravine. Such are the ways of conspiracy theories.

Later autopsy work and attempts to form a coherent timeline of the incident and its aftermath suggest that Mauseth made it to the emergency site unharmed. Her injuries, rather, were likely sustained while searching the steeper and less stable area for scrub to burn in the fire that never came to be. A tourniquet was fashioned from Hans Ulven’s bootlace, but even that was insufficient.

Even if she hadn’t died when estimated from hypothermia, she would have likely continued to bleed out. It is unlikely that Austad and Egner would have remained behind if Mauseth had already died before Bohler departed. Why they chose not to ascend themselves after Astrid perished remains a mystery.

Lucy is dead. She was a member of the Halvøsen hiking party and a civilian.

It is now Day 6.

Spoiler: show

@Alison
@Boquise
@Creature
@fingersplints
@lucy
@RondoDimBuckle

[RondoDimBuckle]

In reverse order 5 votes on Nate, boq was last and he went against his town read. Creature sheeps but a 4th vote securing a lynch. 3rd is finger. Lucy is town and first is Alison who doesn't move from first vote at sod.

Still haven't caught up fully yet but I should have time tonight. We need to not lose wim

[Alison]

I am here.

[Alison]

Are votes locked, and if so, do we have to vote in thread?

[G-Man]

Are votes locked, and if so, do we have to vote in thread?

Nope and nope.

[Boquise]

Good morning

[Alison]

Good morning

Your thoughts on the game?

I was pretty disheartened by Nate's flip.

I don't know if I should be reconsidering my read on Jay's spew, because I thought it looked pretty bad for Nate and I was wrong.

[RondoDimBuckle]

And I know if Creature's scum that sets him up to put a 4th vote on me, but whatever. Hoping people will be around to talk about the points I've made so far.

I have a concert tonight so I'll be mobile-only for the last hour or so of the day. Which is inconvenient!

Looking back at D1, the first two voters for Creature were Jay and Alison, so... unlikely that Jay/Alison/Creature are the exact team. So combined with the above I'd say one of Creature/Alison is almost certainly a wolf, and it's also a difference check. Meaning there'd be a wolf in the rest. I'm town, I'm reading Boq and Lucy as town, so the other wolf is in Rondo/Finger.

Jay did not seem to like me voting Creature early on day 3, and that stands out in hindsight (I haven't completely re-read but I'm about halfway through the day). The post I quoted earlier is the one I'm talking about. So this is the vote I feel best about atm.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Of course we also have to reckon with the gallon of wine Jay poured for us at some point yesterday:

> says he's going to take a different tack and evaluate everyone from the perspective that they're scum
> does this for Creature
> gives a basically neutral read
> stops

Which is exactly what happened

[RondoDimBuckle]

Looking back at D1, the first two voters for Creature were Jay and Alison, so... unlikely that Jay/Alison/Creature are the exact team. So combined with the above I'd say one of Creature/Alison is almost certainly a wolf, and it's also a difference check. Meaning there'd be a wolf in the rest. I'm town, I'm reading Boq and Lucy as town, so the other wolf is in Rondo/Finger.

Jay did not seem to like me voting Creature early on day 3, and that stands out in hindsight (I haven't completely re-read but I'm about halfway through the day). The post I quoted earlier is the one I'm talking about. So this is the vote I feel best about atm.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Of course we also have to reckon with the gallon of wine Jay poured for us at some point yesterday:

> says he's going to take a different tack and evaluate everyone from the perspective that they're scum
> does this for Creature
> gives a basically neutral read
> stops

Creature is one of those players I have sussed for a major part of the game. I agree with you that if there is a wolf between Creature and Alison, it is Creature. I disagree with it being a different check though. If Creature is town, I won't start scum reading Alison. She is a lock.

My weakest town read is fingers, so with that poe it would be Creature/Fingers, but I am not sure about it.

Rondo came in now and voted with you on Creature. That means to me that Rondo is not scum with you because at this point scum would be better to just let you go. Which means I am at least reading one of you correctly.

Re-reading this after the flip hurts my head

[RondoDimBuckle]

But in a Nate/finger world, why does Nate defend Boq here? Surely Boq is the one misexe they can conceivably obtain?

Yea I think Nate is townie still
He is in my poe because I was wrong about JJJ

Now when jurying is over, I will have more time to play. It is 01:15 am though.

I have too many town reads.
I think Alison is town
Rondo is town
Lucy is town
Fingers and Nate are probably town
Creature did vote JJJ and plays like Creature so like. Idk.

Will have to re-examine things.

make a poe

That's what the last line means tbh
I have written earlier today however that Nate and Fingers are my poe and maybe Creature (but very hard to place). It is just that I feel conflicted.

What's your poe?

Damn this day is going to go so slow

Why are you ignoring posts???

So if I just remove Alison and Lucy from the equation.

I dont think it makes much sense of Nate to try to clear both me and Lucy as scum because that makes the game state much more difficult for him.

with the risk of being super dumb, I think Nate is town tbh

My POE is still Boq/finger/Nate and my mislynch will mean we'll have to find the town among them.

i am trying to be professional here and not vote you because of your refusal to engage with me.

Not sure if I am being snowed by Nate or if I am actually reading correctly smh

Actually Creature, convince me to vote Nate over you. You have 20 minutes.

If Nate is scum, he is scum with either Creature or Fingers. Scum is forced to distance. That is like the largest elimination I can do in teams, considering Creature could be wolf with Rondo and Fingers too, and Fingers with Rondo as well.

I am aware that I might be ultra pocketed by Rondo but I want to hold that line for a bit longer. Rondo is not scum with Nate at the very least, so if Nate flips scum I would clear Rondo completely.

also fingers just jumping in to place a vote on Nate is kinda lmao.

creature is similarly not a good enough player to play this far outside of his scum range this game, he'd have messed up

Have you played with Creature before?
You should not underestimate Creature's scum game, nor do I think that he'd have "messed up" by now, considering he has just reposted the same message for like 3 game days.

never, and that he has, but in my experience if you play like that you're either auto read by your friends/people you've played with before, or you can't be read and people won't try

i dont see how that disqualifies him as scum tbh
Creature has been miscleared before tbh

I've made it clear that I think there's a wolf in creature or Allison bc at least one teammate would want to be on his wagon at eod.

Not necessarily. JJJ at least initially seemed focused on pushing mislynches so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another mislynch. I remember there being like three or more alternate wagons (Alison, Boquise, dunno who else) before I moved to JJJ so it was definitely possible.

so JJJ focused on pushing misyeets, so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another misyeet
and your wagon examples for that theory is me and Alison.

I thought you scum read me?

I'm pretty sure there were four wagons with two votes EOD4 before I moved my vote from you to JJJ. I just don't remember who was the fourth wagon alongside JJJ, you and Alison.

so how does this work along with wolves pushing villagers and I was one of the pushed players?

Town wasn't getting a clear wagon and wolves could easily shift to one of the two non-wolf wagons in the world you're a wolf.

You realise that your narrative "JJJ pushed for villagers" should clear me, right?

so JJJ focused on pushing misyeets, so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another misyeet
and your wagon examples for that theory is me and Alison.

I thought you scum read me?

I'm pretty sure there were four wagons with two votes EOD4 before I moved my vote from you to JJJ. I just don't remember who was the fourth wagon alongside JJJ, you and Alison.

so how does this work along with wolves pushing villagers and I was one of the pushed players?

Town wasn't getting a clear wagon and wolves could easily shift to one of the two non-wolf wagons in the world you're a wolf.

You realise that your narrative "JJJ pushed for villagers" should clear me, right?

Perhaps. I'm still open to reconsider, but first we must lynch a wolf today.

You are currently voting for a town player and against your own theory.

it is interesting that jjj made nate/creature unaligned and fingers/nate too

[VOTE: Natethelesser] aubergine

sorry if i am wrong

Boq's progression on Nate as town into scum, I want some more understanding on why you would have so much suspicion on creature but still jump on the nate wagon

[VOTE: Boq ] aubergine

[RondoDimBuckle]

Good morning

I was going to wait for Boq to just expand on the EOD himself but I dont like this

[Boquise]

But in a Nate/finger world, why does Nate defend Boq here? Surely Boq is the one misexe they can conceivably obtain?

Yea I think Nate is townie still
He is in my poe because I was wrong about JJJ

Now when jurying is over, I will have more time to play. It is 01:15 am though.

I have too many town reads.
I think Alison is town
Rondo is town
Lucy is town
Fingers and Nate are probably town
Creature did vote JJJ and plays like Creature so like. Idk.

Will have to re-examine things.

make a poe

That's what the last line means tbh
I have written earlier today however that Nate and Fingers are my poe and maybe Creature (but very hard to place). It is just that I feel conflicted.

What's your poe?

Damn this day is going to go so slow

Why are you ignoring posts???

So if I just remove Alison and Lucy from the equation.

I dont think it makes much sense of Nate to try to clear both me and Lucy as scum because that makes the game state much more difficult for him.

with the risk of being super dumb, I think Nate is town tbh

My POE is still Boq/finger/Nate and my mislynch will mean we'll have to find the town among them.

i am trying to be professional here and not vote you because of your refusal to engage with me.

Not sure if I am being snowed by Nate or if I am actually reading correctly smh

Actually Creature, convince me to vote Nate over you. You have 20 minutes.

If Nate is scum, he is scum with either Creature or Fingers. Scum is forced to distance. That is like the largest elimination I can do in teams, considering Creature could be wolf with Rondo and Fingers too, and Fingers with Rondo as well.

I am aware that I might be ultra pocketed by Rondo but I want to hold that line for a bit longer. Rondo is not scum with Nate at the very least, so if Nate flips scum I would clear Rondo completely.

also fingers just jumping in to place a vote on Nate is kinda lmao.

creature is similarly not a good enough player to play this far outside of his scum range this game, he'd have messed up

Have you played with Creature before?
You should not underestimate Creature's scum game, nor do I think that he'd have "messed up" by now, considering he has just reposted the same message for like 3 game days.

never, and that he has, but in my experience if you play like that you're either auto read by your friends/people you've played with before, or you can't be read and people won't try

i dont see how that disqualifies him as scum tbh
Creature has been miscleared before tbh

Not necessarily. JJJ at least initially seemed focused on pushing mislynches so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another mislynch. I remember there being like three or more alternate wagons (Alison, Boquise, dunno who else) before I moved to JJJ so it was definitely possible.

so JJJ focused on pushing misyeets, so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another misyeet
and your wagon examples for that theory is me and Alison.

I thought you scum read me?

I'm pretty sure there were four wagons with two votes EOD4 before I moved my vote from you to JJJ. I just don't remember who was the fourth wagon alongside JJJ, you and Alison.

so how does this work along with wolves pushing villagers and I was one of the pushed players?

Town wasn't getting a clear wagon and wolves could easily shift to one of the two non-wolf wagons in the world you're a wolf.

You realise that your narrative "JJJ pushed for villagers" should clear me, right?

I'm pretty sure there were four wagons with two votes EOD4 before I moved my vote from you to JJJ. I just don't remember who was the fourth wagon alongside JJJ, you and Alison.

so how does this work along with wolves pushing villagers and I was one of the pushed players?

Town wasn't getting a clear wagon and wolves could easily shift to one of the two non-wolf wagons in the world you're a wolf.

You realise that your narrative "JJJ pushed for villagers" should clear me, right?

Perhaps. I'm still open to reconsider, but first we must lynch a wolf today.

You are currently voting for a town player and against your own theory.

it is interesting that jjj made nate/creature unaligned and fingers/nate too

[VOTE: Natethelesser] aubergine

sorry if i am wrong

Boq's progression on Nate as town into scum, I want some more understanding on why you would have so much suspicion on creature but still jump on the nate wagon

[VOTE: Boq ] aubergine

At that point, there was really no use in where else I could vote. I took into account that I was horribly wrong on JJJ and if I was wrong on Nate, it was better to be voting him than not.

I also think Creature was townie at the eod, so who I would have preferred was Fingers for her sudden pop in and vote. I also think your reaction to a you/Fingers team was kinda sus.

Tho with that in mind, I guess scum!Fingers wouldn't feel any need to vote Nate there if both Nate/Creature are town tbh

[Boquise]

Looking back at D1, the first two voters for Creature were Jay and Alison, so... unlikely that Jay/Alison/Creature are the exact team. So combined with the above I'd say one of Creature/Alison is almost certainly a wolf, and it's also a difference check. Meaning there'd be a wolf in the rest. I'm town, I'm reading Boq and Lucy as town, so the other wolf is in Rondo/Finger.

Jay did not seem to like me voting Creature early on day 3, and that stands out in hindsight (I haven't completely re-read but I'm about halfway through the day). The post I quoted earlier is the one I'm talking about. So this is the vote I feel best about atm.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Of course we also have to reckon with the gallon of wine Jay poured for us at some point yesterday:

> says he's going to take a different tack and evaluate everyone from the perspective that they're scum
> does this for Creature
> gives a basically neutral read
> stops

Creature is one of those players I have sussed for a major part of the game. I agree with you that if there is a wolf between Creature and Alison, it is Creature. I disagree with it being a different check though. If Creature is town, I won't start scum reading Alison. She is a lock.

My weakest town read is fingers, so with that poe it would be Creature/Fingers, but I am not sure about it.

Rondo came in now and voted with you on Creature. That means to me that Rondo is not scum with you because at this point scum would be better to just let you go. Which means I am at least reading one of you correctly.

Re-reading this after the flip hurts my head

Why?

[Boquise]

Good morning

Your thoughts on the game?

I was pretty disheartened by Nate's flip.

I don't know if I should be reconsidering my read on Jay's spew, because I thought it looked pretty bad for Nate and I was wrong.

I think I have either miscleared Rondo or that the team is Creature/fingers. The scum reads on Nate yesterday felt kinda impossible to debate against because everyone had decided he was scum tbh

[Boquise]

Good morning

I was going to wait for Boq to just expand on the EOD himself but I dont like this

Bad morning to you then tbh