The Syndicate

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Nov 27, 2018 12:04 am i didn't even know there was a 3p faction

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:47 amso who won?

You were the only winner.

One mistake in this setup would be a strong showing, sir.

I think Luna’s checks were appropriate. Indeed, in many universes that’s the best chance to discover that DH occupies a role that isn’t included in the role list.

I think common intuition about cop checking is usually wrong anyway. For many people it’s as simple as “check someone that you suspect to be a mafioso”, and frankly that’s dumb. It’s extremely short-sighted and basic.

The best cop I’ve seen on The Syndicate was [mention]Spacedaisy[/mention] in Arrested Development, and she checked nothing but civilians.

IMO, the proper approach is this: check players who are most likely to be alive in an end game scenario, regardless of expected alignment. That’s how you solve.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:03 amJaggedJimmyJay maybe that's another exception to that "blow up thread" theory of yours?

No, that is mafia-specific. It’s very easy to post a lot when you don’t know with certainty who the bad guys are. I led GY!BE in posts as a surviving serial killer.

I don’t think anyone blew this thread up anyway. In terms of posting *rate* (posts per cycle alive, not total posts), scrimmage MP and Fire Emblem dunya remain the only real exceptions to my memory.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:38 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:33 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:03 am At what point did you realise I was a civ for sure?
When the game ended.
Lol surely you must have at least realised when Poutanko died?

No. I still thought six mafia members was reasonably possible, and you had pushed the counterwagon.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:03 am At what point did you realise I was a civ for sure?

When the game ended.

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:10 am At this point, I don't know what triggered it. It could be you and inh, or it could have been something else. I guess somewhere I felt belittled or that my reads didn't matter or no one was listening or who knows what.

I guess it just seemed a bit rougher than what I'm used to or something.

Something I have experienced a number of times when playing my first or second game on another site is the feeling that nobody is listening to a word I say. Indeed, it might on some level reflect reality -- not that nobody is listening, but that the regulars on the site don't think my reads are as informed as they need to be based upon whoever's metas to be trusted as valid (and on multiple occasions it has been to their detriment: I was right and they were wrong). I think you might have been in a very similar position in this case. Nearly everyone else has played with DharmaHelper many times over, and in that time there has developed nuanced ideas about how he plays and who he is as a player. And sometimes that can be blinding instead of informative, as it may have been here. Perhaps the regulars were blinded to a detail that you were able to pick up because you haven't already built years of biases.

With repetition these frustrations tend to subside though, because people become more accustomed to the approach of the newcomer. Indeed, when I was new to The Syndicate nobody listened to a damned thing I had to say. I remember feeling like I was talking to brick walls in Economics Mafia.

Please know though that it there is never an intent to disrespect or belittle you. I have seen first hand the kind of great Mafia play you are capable of, and I don't think it would surprise anyone here to see you do more great things. I hope you can find the energy to give us another try, because we're a better community for having you a part of it. Every new idea and perspective enriches a game, and every new friend enriches a site.

I think that catching an independent player purely on behavioral data is a very muddy endeavor since the primary motivator of behavioral change between games is the presence or lack of extra information (known teammates or unknown). The capacity to genuinely hunt for mafia is one of the most important benefits anti-civilian roles can enjoy -- it's as pronounced in games with multiple mafia teams (and in many cases renders those games outright unbalanced, which I would not say this game was).

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 1:39 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 1:37 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 1:01 am I think you do clear all of those things if you are in the game tbh. At least until it's too late. We never realised we were at DH LYLO on the day we lynched Jack for instance. I don't think anyone in their right mind could have known that.
You were my top suspect pre-poutanko lynch. I didn't give a shit about the potion.

Yeah well maybe I shouldn't have been given, you know, I was a civ...

That you were. Had I been alive you'd have found the late game even more frustrating than you already did.

I am sorry for your loss, Owner.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 1:01 am I think you do clear all of those things if you are in the game tbh. At least until it's too late. We never realised we were at DH LYLO on the day we lynched Jack for instance. I don't think anyone in their right mind could have known that.

You were my top suspect pre-poutanko lynch. I didn't give a shit about the potion.

I agree that no civilian was catching DH. The civilians had two vigilantes and the mafia had one. There were a crapload of kills. A SK wasn't necessary to explain them in the minds of anyone without bonus information. That just wasn't going to happen and I don't think a single civilian made an unforced mistake in this game which got in the way of catching DH. He wasn't getting caught.

At least now I can finally brag that I did indeed shoot INH in the face.

poutanko wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:08 am

Would it be better to have a clear indication of SK being in the game or is it enough?
[/quote]

That is the prerogative of the host. I think a nice compromise that I have seen in the past is to include *secret role* in the public role list -- it informs players that something else is afoot without any details about what that means. There's no obligation for DDL to adopt that method though and I don't fault him. Sometimes a theme demands total secrecy to respect a host's vision.

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:03 am
DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:59 pm Can't wait to get dunked on D1/N1 in long con's game for this.
I don't think people really hold grudges from game to game much anymore. It's so immature.

They don't hold them deliberately, but perspectives can certainly bleed into future games. Scrutiny is likely to be elevated.

This was a fun and ambitious game, and I am grateful to have taken part [mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention]. It was an interesting combination of structural norms in the vein of a semi-open setup, but with plenty of closed setup elements.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:02 pm JaggedJimmyJay elaborate on your frustration. What did you see that we didn't?

It was less about anyone missing something that I was seeing and more about what I perceived to be complacent or resigned hunting. There were so many times wherein someone would clear or near-clear someone else for what I thought were inadequate reasons in a late/endgame scenario. For example:

I don't clear Mac for giving timmer the potion.
I don't clear nutella for her effort level.
I don't clear DH for casing Long Con or Jack.
I don't clear poutanko for claiming a false red check.
I don't clear Lunalee for having cleared Sloonei.

etc. I saw very reasonable ways to view these things through a mafioso lens that required nearly no tinfoil, and it drove me bonkers. That isn't meant to criticize any specific people though, because my own casing was clearly not perfect either. I'd have had to continue developing my own POE to arrive at poutanko.

I don't fault anyone for missing DH as a serial killer. Indeed, I don't think the civilians were ever going to figure that out before it was too late (both in terms of game phase and the acquisition of the hallows), because it was a secret role. Even speculation about it maybe existing is always going to take a back seat to the confirmed, objective threat (the death eaters), so there's really nothing that can be done on that front. The best chance the civilians had to be rid of that problem would have been for DH to be killed by the mafia. I give DH credit for making the best of the role and earning civilian credit to ensure he couldn't be lynched for the wrong reasons (association with the mafia).

probably the most annoyed I have ever been following a game as a corpse

poutanko wrote: ↑Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:59 pm 30 players game = a lot more posts. I can barely catch up with this one

Yeah but I'm not playing.

let's play dead

nutella deletes the people.

then timmer grinds them into chunks.

plezz rease

o dead

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:25 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:11 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:06 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:03 am I said "insight" instead of "incite", so I deserve any insults coming my way.
Honestly you know what, not even worth responding to that shit ass case anymore.
You keep calling it a “case”
I mean, unless we're just "red" because of quin's hair...

It means I think you’re compatible as mafia teammates. While you’re both alive it’s not really a case. It’s a part of a larger reductive effort.

I realize you ask questions Sloonei. So do I. One has to judge a few things about each question:

1 - does the question promote a hunting strategy
2 - does the asker of the question intend to use any answer received for some clearly evident purpose
3 - is the question authentic
4 - is the question necessary

I called your question aimless because I have doubts about #2.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:20 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:19 am At least we know Mac is bad now. The Sloonei connection on this page is WIFOM junk so I don’t care.
I actually don't follow though

Mac thinks sarcasm is a way to get meta credit. So I will take his comments at face value.

At least we know Mac is bad now. The Sloonei connection on this page is WIFOM junk so I don’t care.

Okay no it looks like the night ends tomorrow evening. That will pose a problem for me. I will try my best.

The Mac and Sloonei interaction should be fun. I’ve avoided the ones with a thousand posts tonight. Maybe tomorrow evening after football festivities. I think it’ll still be night. Lemme check.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:06 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:03 am I said "insight" instead of "incite", so I deserve any insults coming my way.
Honestly you know what, not even worth responding to that shit ass case anymore.

You keep calling it a “case”

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:03 am Yeah. You got us. We surrender. Its okay Sloonei it's over DH and Jay are the real heroes.

Cool, less headache moving forward then. I appreciate an honorable concession.

Quin wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:01 am well, here's one i can debunk right away:

Quin wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:01 pm townslips aren't real guys

The townslip crap isn't terribly important in the grand scheme of things. I don't think any mafioso expects to be taken seriously saying that about [whoever].

I said "insight" instead of "incite", so I deserve any insults coming my way.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:00 am Crazy that Hufflepuff McTownslip looks bad lol thats wild

I thought you didn't want to portray a dancing monkey

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:57 am Well given you have me as a red with sprityo I am gonna have to go ahead and ignore the rest of your insights because they obviously suck

What if I were to tell you that you've been cornered in a POE struggle and have tried to break out of it by proposing any theory that comes to mind which can insight paranoia and decrease trust in the civilian core?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:55 am That’s the worst read you’ve ever produced on me. Yuck.

Quin wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:45 am I don't remember my exact mindset at the time, but that post had nothing to do with Bullzeye and everything to do with me. Hopefully that's enough for you because I'd prefer not to elaborate.

You have bigger worries, as you can see.

Quin and Slowner

Quin's stuff

Spoiler: show

Owner and Sloonei's stuff

Spoiler: show

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:00 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:59 pm
I think his treatment of Quin is fishy.
What about Quin do you like so far?

Generic prod.

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:23 pm
DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:19 pm
Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:11 pm
I respect you, but that doesn't mean I'll stop being critical of you.
Seems like you're constantly and exclusively critical of me, but hell I've got pretty thick skin I'll be fine. Anyway good luck with that I guess.
JJJ seems alright. I want to look at Quin. Epi is null. Speedy, I'm slightly worried about.

I think yourself, JJJ, nova, and poutanko are the players I feel like I might have some meta on.

Everyone named in this post has a purpose for being in it except Quin. Yuck. "I want to look at Quin" is meaningless.

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:54 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:42 am also i [VOTE: timmer] aubergine
What do you think of some of the other wagons?

Softball for days.

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:53 pm Unrelated, I thought Quin could be with DH at on point.

But it was probably more like playful banter.

What? Why am I seeing these words?

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:24 pm Or would Quin be with Epi? hmm

Quin could be with [insert whichever random player, but he's still "slight town" on the N1 reads list. Ew.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:41 am
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:04 am i don't deserve to be townread so i am suspicious of anyone who is doing so
Town read.

k

Quin's in the D4 POE, as he was for everyone.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:53 pm If Quin is bad and was targeting his teammate Long Con, what ability might he have been using?

Aimless question.

Sloonei reviews the mechanical controversy and ends up with a bunch of opinions in conflict with each other and no conclusion. speed's claims are "more calculated" and Quin's are "more improvised" -- both of those sound bad.

~~~

Conclusion

I note a lot of concerns here and nothing stands out to the contrary.

RED

Quin and speedzeye

NOTE: Obviously the meat of this interaction will exist in their mechanical combat. The easy answer here is "not teammates", but I won't be resting on that. I think it's at least plausible they're both spamming the thread with trash deliberately. So I am going to assess the interaction preceding the mechanical discussion, make a judgment, and then incorporate the mechanics into a final answer.

Quin's stuff

Spoiler: show

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:22 pm
Bullzeye wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:11 pm
Lunalee wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:37 pm
Bullzeye wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:21 pm
DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:17 pm "Not all Slytherin's are Dark Wizards, but every Dark Wizard has been a Slytherin"
Wormtail was a Gryffindor.
Even the dark wizards refused to accept Wormtail
Still betrayed all his closest friends for the Dark Lord's cause and played a crucial role in restoring Voldy to full power. Seems pretty Dark to me. The man was a coward, motivated only by fear and self-preservation. I always saw him as being the opposite end of the scale from Snape.
sure but let's not forget that his love for lily aside snape was an asshole through and through

Irrelevant thematic babble. There was a bit of it early in the game between them.

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:01 am
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:43 am Here's how it went down from my perspective, one mental state at a time.

1. Bullzeye voted for nova.
2. Timmer and a few others found Bullzeye's vote extremely suspicious.
3. Nova was killed and flipped bad.
4. Some people (myself included) suspect Bullzeye even more, thinking that he placed a vote on a teammate.
5. Timmer comes out with a 180 on Bullzeye, calling him his top civ read after the events of the night but not due to a cop check.
6. I look at the list of abilities to see what might explain this that's not cop-ish per se. I notice the one that tracks which player a player targeted, and it occurs to me that perhaps Bullzeye vigged nova since he presumably suspected him, and perhaps timmer tracked Bullzeye since he suspected him, and saw that he targeted nova, and is now townclearing Bullzeye as the vig.
7. I accept this and decide to townread both bullzeye and timmer based on this interpretation.
8. The topic comes up again and Jay questions how timmer could know anything and says that he blocked timmer.
9. I say "wouldn't he not have gotten a result at all if he were blocked?"
10. That turns out to be moot as timmer admits that it was not based on anything he did at all, it was just based on something that happened (i.e. nova's death).
11. I figure that timmer had just made an educated guess that bullzeye vigged nova and decided to townclear him. Since it made so much sense to me when I was investigating back when I thought timmer actually knew something, I figured that I still believed it made sense even though it turned out timmer didn't actually know, and I continued to agree with timmer/believe that bullzeye killed nova.
12. For a while I still figured that this looked good for timmer. I no longer feel like I have much justification for that; he could easily have scum motivation for pulling his 180 on bullzeye in the way that he did.
timmer

does number 5 come from any sort of info you got?

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:08 am I think I know what timmer is talking about, and timmer should retract that top civ read on Bullzeye.

Quin offered immediate resistance to timmer's civilian vouch on Bullzeye when presented with nutella's summary. I don't remember this ever being expanded upon, and that is a very important detail to cover.

@Quin, what was the deal here? What made you suggest timmer might be in the wrong?

Bullzeye and speedchuck's stuff

Spoiler: show

~~~

Conclusion

There's less to talk about pre-mechanical controversy than I'd hoped, and the main point of interest is currently unresolved. For now the weight has to be given to that controversy then, which leaves me at:

GREEN

MacDougall and sprityo

MacDougall's stuff

Spoiler: show

sprityo's stuff

Spoiler: show

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:07 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:44 pm
sprityo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:14 pm hello everyone, so glad to be transfer rd to this amazing magical school of hope!

JJJ, your name fusion for me is awful

Mafia.
missed you too mac, glad to see you actually showed up for this game

Cute.

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:08 pm oh my time zone is still messed up, no wonder i missed the lynch

um so ive been skimming the past 10 pages or so, only thing that stuck out to me is

mac is getting all defensive and angery a couple pages ago, i dont know what that means, but i wouldnt think he'd be so personal about stuff unless he's against someone who's really grinding his gears

glorf is always town and for the people who tried pushing otherwise, i say shame on you. Not that i've read what he's done this game.

and JJJ has a strong urge to lynch me for whatever reason. that one sticks me in the ribs. I guess it goes to say something that no one else immediately jumped onto the chance.

for the most part, im playing lax. I never intended to play, but im here because replacements were needed. The thread is pretty chaotic in general so i'm gonna be on the sidelines. i'll do work when i need to, but that doesnt mean ill do work because someone wants to pressure me with a lynch to do so.

with that, im going to eat my taco bell and continue to enjoy my first week back in the states

sprityo says some shit about Mac that kind of could be construed as a read, but not really -- it's meaningless and does no favors toward dissociation.

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:09 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:09 pm Ok I figured out the situation so you can all calm down.

Nutella and Jay are both scum.
thanks mac, youre a real american hero

taco?

More chumminess.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:50 am DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

DH and Mac are town for wasting time.

?

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:01 pm what? Jay and Mac and DH DONT know everything? First I’ve heard of this statement

I actually do know literally everything in existence.

sprityo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:38 am JaggedJimmyJay

I skimmed through all house hufflepuffs living players and their previous lives. Bullzeye and Speedchuck came out the worst. Call it my gut

I generally get a town vibe from DH, but then again I’ve been wrong about that two games in a row; and mac arguing with someone and accomplishing nothing is something of a staple I come to expect from him. “Oh honey look, Mr. Macdougal is yelling at the pigeons on his fence again” “pay him no mind Margaret, he’s just like that”

Why does a staple of Mac's play make him town instead of being alignment-neutral?

~~~

Conclusion

This one bugs me. I don't like much of any of it.

RED

Slowner and sprityo

Owner and Sloonei's stuff

Spoiler: show

sprityo's stuff

Nilch.

~~~

Conclusion

Everything is just by-the-numbers and typical for a guy with no content. I think it looks worse than average though, because Sloonei isn't one to throw out these kinds of feelers and fail to do anything with them.

ORANGE

I better find me a big bright red.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:56 am JaggedJimmyJay hi ok I said I would do some of the real ones, sorry for spending time on colin*, I'll be back in a bit feel free to assign me a couple more slots

*I do think it's important to consider outlying possibilities though, I mean basically if luna or poutanko is scum after all we'd be kinda screwed lol so I don't want to forget people outside the poe exist just because I'm looking at a select group primarily

You've already gone above and beyond the call of duty, thank you very much for that. Adding more names is of course the safest course of action. The only reason I limited it to seven/eight is because every additional name significantly increases the workload.

Lemme know if you feel these colors misrepresent you, nutella.

Spoiler: show

I think there are 10-12 or so. I hope to get back to it tonight.

Everyone is completely and entirely banned from quoting my entire analyses. Segment it or just us an @

speedzeye and sprityo

Bullzeye and speedchuck's stuff

Spoiler: show

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:27 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:20 pm I'm going to be unavailable during the early portion of this afternoon. I might have a brief window to visit in a few hours. I endorse a sprityo lynch.
I endorse a Sprityo VIG.

speedchuck endorsed a vig shot against sprityo. Valid enough choice in the vein of shooting novaselinenever.

sprityo is in a D3 POE. He's an obvious selection for any POE.

Orange in the greenest rainbow list of all time. Again, where else would he be.

Light orange this time. Meh.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:50 am speed 2.0
juliets 2.0
JaggedJimmyJay
DharmaHelper
Lunalee
karavalenge
timmer
nutella

poutanko
Jackofhearts2005
MacDougall
ColinIsCool
Quin
sprityo
Sloonei

Here's your POE of 7. I am about 95% certain of it. I can still tinfoil JJJ or mayyyyybe Luna, but I strongly townread both of them. Detailed reads on the seven scummy sins here in a minute.

More of the same. N4 POE.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:58 am poutanko - I townread Pout, have since D1. Her cop claim initially got the same from me, especially since it was completely WRONG and also was a really risky move. But I don't know Pout. Maybe she could make risky moves. I can put on a tinfoil hat and see it.
ColinIsCool - Townread again from D1. Cared about the roof early on. Almost got lynched alongside LC. And then... Pout towncopped him, and I started ignoring him. My townread on him is less strong than everyone out of my POE, and if Pout is scum, he could be too. If she's town... what are the odds that she'd be wrong twice, right?
Jackofhearts2005 - Jack is someone I've struggled to read all game. Normally he's in the forefront of my mind, and that hasn't seemed to happen this game. He has had a decent tone throughout, but I don't recall anything that locks him as town for me.
MacDougall - For the most part I townread MacDougall. There's just a little lingering weirdness with the way the vig kills bother him. Hey, Mac, do they still bother you now that you know Mafia ALSO had vigs?
Quin - A liar barring some crazy unexplainable night actions. Why did he lie? Why didn't he back off in some way? No idea. Doesn't make sense.
sprityo - Egh. JJJ covered this.
Sloonei - I only townread Owner for being saved by LC. That's gone now. Owner had some really fake-sounding reads on D1. Sloonei has been fine, but hasn't really wowed me or broke the mold and done something I wouldn't expect from anyone in the thread.

Yes, like half of these are townreads. Your fault for giving me a POE of 7.

speedchuck reads sprityo as "egh" and defers to my reasoning. Meh.

sprityo's stuff

Spoiler: show

~~~

Conclusion

This one is tough, because there's not quite enough here to make me comfortable calling it a green. I will give it a yellow then, because on the sprityo side there's at least something to ponder.

YELLOW

Quin and sprityo

Quin's stuff

Spoiler: show

sprityo's stuff

Spoiler: show

~~~

Conclusion

Zilch to discuss. They're compatible by default.

YELLOW

Jackofhearts2005 and Owner of a Sloonlei Heart

Jack's stuff

Spoiler: show

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:19 pm
Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:18 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:24 pm [VOTE: Sonjei] aubergine

Hufflepuffs are wimps and he’s from a poor family.

*sneer*
I'm not crazy about jack either. He might be okay, but I don't like how he's roleplaying this vote.
What don’t you like about it?

Owner gave Jack a little early shit, and he asked for an explanation. It's a small point, but I think it's a decent look for dissociation.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:17 pm
Lunalee wrote: ↑Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:08 pm karavalenge DharmaHelper ColinIsCool seeing as how Owner requested to be replaced, does that change your stance on wanting her lynched? There are better trains to jump on today. Just saying.
It probably shouldn’t. Like Owner’s alignment hasn’t changed. Where are you going with this?

Duh.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:26 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:18 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:13 pm Speedball is a superhero who is like a living bludger.
Tell me about INH and Soneji.
I’d rather lynch them than Luna, Bullzeye or Owner.

I don’t have any reason to townread either. Sonjei’s Luna push looks like a known mislynch push. INH’s reactions to pushes on him look kinda suspect.

Jack would rather lynch INH or Soneji than Owner. Okay.

Something something about INH's maaaaaybe salad, concluding no more than one person in the salad (which included Owner) was a mafioso.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:54 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:02 am
timmer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:40 am I'm struggling to pst what I wantto say properly, I'm a bit lit.

I'll write it better tomorrow but I'm hot liking long con s vote history and vote timing... I think it is vey possible he saved owner day 1. I think his inh vote needs more study too. He's been very manipulative with his voting strategy and his early stated aim to be hallow hunting makes for easy cover for those late votes

I'll try to lay it out better tomorrow
Well, it's very '100% accurate' that I saved Owner on Day 1, not just 'possible'. It was tied between Owner and TH, and I voted TH in the last minute. I don't think the INH vote was that late... it was late in my personal timeline, but there were a couple of hours left in the lynch, and I wasn't in contention for any Hallows that time.

Lay it out better tomorrow, Lit.
Yeah, LC/Owner not w/w.

Jack asserted here that LC and Owner were not teamed because of this brazen comment by LC that he 100% saved her. Jack has restated this numerous times since to support a civilian read on Sloonei. I think it supports dissociation, because if Jack is bad it'd look like TMI.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:58 pm Likely civ
Slowner
Colin

Second-highest tier in the D3 rainbow list.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:15 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:47 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:23 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:15 pm We have three replacements. Everyone tell me about them.
Sloonei is town. Sprityo and speed2.0 haven't done anything yet. I have a reason to think that speed2.0's player slot is town. I don't have any reason to think sprityo is town.
Sloonei townslipped. Sprityo has said nothing. Speed 2.0 has suspicion of Glorf and nutella, which I think is pretty healthy. I see from his ISO that he is the one who already called out nutella's Player Salad post, and that puts him a little in the green, salad pun intended.
He didn’t. He slipped he didn’t know INH was dead but the mafia didn’t kill INH.

I townread him for other reasons but this is sloppy logic that has been repeated a few times and needs correcting.

Jack groaned at people giving Sloonei credit for a "townslip".

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:38 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:16 pm What’s the short version of the case on Long Con?
He seems to have survived a lynch (seems because there are vote changing powers) and most of the ways that could happen (secrets) are bad guy secrets. The others are the deathly hallows. Mafia have probably made 2 kills so even if it was a hallow, there’s roughly a 2/5ths chance LC got the hallow by killing someone.

For LC to be town, he’d have to have started with a hallow or gained it from a vig kill. The chance of LC starting with a hallow is about 1/8th. The chance of a hallow moving via kill is about 1/5th.

Ergo, the odds of a lynch avoid power being in death eater secrets is much higher than LC being town.

Jack answered Sloonei's call for a case on LC. If all three are mafia, this would be a predictable opportunity arranged between mates for a credit grab. That's not the only possibility though.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:08 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:06 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:02 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:49 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:46 pm I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe.
Which way?
Gently.
I don't know whether you're taking him out of the suspect pool or out of the townfirm pool.

And why?
Suspect pool.

I was being cheeky about his flawless “I haven’t read” logic but seriously I think Sloonei is spewed good by LC flipping bad. Jay disagrees but whatever.

Reiterates that LC spewed Sloonei good.

Owner and Sloonei's stuff

Spoiler: show

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:23 pm Null
JJJ
Kyle
insertnamehere
Mac
Jack
Bullzeye

Null on a N1 reads list. Fart.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:03 pmIs Jack bad?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 03, 2018 8:35 pm [VOTE: Jackofhearts] aubergine

That guy eats death.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:46 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:57 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:03 pmIs Jack bad?
To the bone.

But I ain't no death eater.
The llama method says that baddies are made uncomfortable by direct statements of their alignment. It used to be that they’d have trouble denying their badness at all, but once that became an established tell folks adapted to it. Now the tell, if it really exists, would awkwardly worded answers.

I’ve read like 5 of Jack’s posts but this one had the ring of someone who was being too careful to sound casual.

Sloonei's first real suspicion upon entering the game seemed to be on Jack. I don't think this looks like teammate stuff.

Now it's a whole case

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:12 pm Anyone got a compelling argument for reading Jack as town?

Sticking to the theme, looking for counterarguments.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:50 pm Moved my vote back to Jack because my gut tells me to. I’m still not really here.

Continued. The only thing that prevents me from slam dunking this as a dissociation is that the suspicion didn't really catch on much in terms of motivating a lynch wagon, so the context is still distance-friendly. I think it looks the right way though.

Jack's in the D4 POE

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:55 pm Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?
Jack - He was my first suspect based on a very minimal reading of his posts. I haven't abandoned that, but I also haven't followed up on it. I've not seen him doing anything alarming since my initial accusation, but I also haven't looked too closely. He'd be in the closest-to-neutral tier of scum reads on a hypothetical rainbow list.

He expanded on that at my request. I'm frustrated by the slight waffle happening here, though this was part of a larger post with nothing but waffles. *slaps Sloonei with newspaper roll*

Asks for more specificity from speedchuck on his green read on Jack

~~~

Conclusion

I don't think these two look like teammates in most of their interactions.

GREEN

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