YO. Vulgard/Enrique is a WOLF.
Hi. Hello there, welcome to whiterun. Here’s all of Vulgard’s posts on d4 regarding Falcon and the lead up to it:
(Now I do entreat you to read it all in sequence, because it’s QUITE enlightening)
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 8:55 am
Nachomamma's ISO I could best describe as inoffensive. There's nothing in it that definitively told me they have no TMI. But it is not a dumpster fire and I do not want to kill this yet.
Falcon's ISO is a step below that. He spent most of the game pushing LHF. The push on Marmot is especially notable because he's tunneled on it hard. If Marmot's mafia, then this looks better for him, but I currently don't think Marmot's a wolf.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 10:16 am
I'm looking at falcon/Nacho/LC/Tim right now as my PoE with Gavial 3p.
Marmot is an outside possibility but I still think it's a town slot.
Still going to check Scotty to determine if clearing him's okay.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 11:35 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 11:17 am
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 10:09 am
Made
MR
DaisyCloud
Jack
TSP
lost monkey
Marmot
Kyle
FMPOV the above are town.
Gavial is my primary 3p read. He's not a pack wolf. I trust he has no TMI based on his play thus far.
If Tim's a wolf, he's partnered with LC. He gave LC an early townshield. "But wolves don't want to look like partners!" Tim's MO as a wolf includes doing those things, I'm sure.
For the record, I reviewed Tim's ISO and I don't townread him. If there's a deepwolf/powerwolf/whatever other than Mac, might be Tim.
I hate that LC pulled this fake redcheck thing. Now I need to read Scotty again.
I'm not sure I've ever seen someone assemble a town core so quickly with so few interactions
Do you have a problem with it because you're not in it, wolf?
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 2:45 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 2:41 pm
I was told Quin had flipped town :wowee:
Basically the same thing given how hard I townread Radishes.
I agree with his Falcon read, too.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 2:49 pm
Current wagons are all fine.
Emphasis on wagons. Not vanity votes.
I'm not sure whether Falcon voting no yeet is funny or wolfy. Could be both, could be neither.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 8:08 am
Current wagon composition:
Falcon (4): Vulgard, Tim, TSP, Nachomamma
Tim (3): MR, Jack, Scotty
Tim's wagon looks far more pure to me. Falcon still isn't self-pressing, either. It matters less pre-EoD, but still.
I won't vote Tim yet, but I'm leaning that way given the wagon formation.
For out-of-game reasons, I'll be busy for a few hours. I hope I'm able to study EoDs before I have to cast a final vote for the day.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 11:06 am
Read EoD1. I concede to Tim that he may be right about Nanook getting vigged in the night. Alison advocated for it and even the yeeted villager found Nanook wolfy. Which means that the kills should be swapped around (Nanook vigged, Alison SPKed). There's also the fact Alison claimed a super pro-town role early d1, so killing her would be +EV for wolves either way.
LC's EoD looks kinda wolfy. He parks a vote on Seanzie and it looks like he's shrugging when he places it.
Seanzie goes down flailing and giving us legacy reads. Nanook scum (wrong). Tim scum (we don't know). "Nook W, Enrique W." Nook is V, and I'm not W. "Tim W, Made V." Made's been greenchecked and Tim is in my PoE.
Tim/Mac EoD 1 interactions look mildly not W/W. I still think it's possible they are partners, though.
Tim disliked the Falcon wagon, and Alison defended Falcon hard for gamestate reasons. Yet now Tim's voting Falcon with me. Tim, what changed?
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 12:25 pm
Takeaways from EoD readings:
- DaisyCloud looks unpartnered with several people. I could make a case on her being wolf on an independent level. However, her interactions tell a different story, and she had a villagery response to my case. Not willing to go there as of right now.
- Tim's EoDs, at least the ones he was present for, have not looked great. In hindsight, they look like he is killing townies. And while a villager could indeed be killing townies, he especially sticks out. Why? He's spearheading most pushes. Mac is one person doing that, but he's the other. And those pushes have lead to three misyeets in a row. Tim, you must understand that this is a good reason to tinfoil/suspect you.
- Kyle looks a bit better from his EoD 2.
- Ambivalent on Marmot. Tried pretty hard to save himself at EoD 3, but that's the only time I saw him engaged in the EoD yeet. Meh.
- Falcon and Nacho have never done anything during EoDs. Ever. This fact alone makes me want to vote outside of them today. If they are wolves (especially if both are), then the village has been eating itself alive this entire game. The gamestate doesn't seem to support that. Mac has been supporting pushes on villagers, so they had at least one powerwolf. Would they rely on Mac to do everything for them?
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 12:31 pm
Checked Falcon's ISO again and I'm content with leaving my vote there. Even though the wagon composition is... well, it could be better... I'm not coming around to the idea of him being town. He spent most of day 1 pushing LHF, day 2 kicked off with him trying to sell DaisyCloud V, and he's been going UTR.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 1:27 pm
I was curious how Tim would react to me pushing Falcon over him, and I don't like it. He posted from the mindset of "well, I can still get Falcon before I die. If Falcon's my partner, I'm bussing here and maybe this'll give me townpoints. If Falcon's V, at least I get one more villager before I go down." The way he reacted to my thinking looks like he's scrambling to find wolfy things in my posts when there aren't any.
Swapping to Tim, we're killing him today. The mindset of "if Falcon flips town, we're just screwed" isn't villagery. It's the mindset of someone who wants to get another misyeet. Where's the analysis of other slots? If Tim's doubting that Falcon's a wolf (and him debating V!Falcon suggests that), why not look elsewhere? He suggests I'm a wolf, but he doesn't push me. In fact, he's voting with me on Falcon. He seems to believe I'm town and mafia at the same time, since I'm in Enrique's slot. He votes on the same wagon as me and wants to vote out the same player as me, but isn't voting me...
This mindset is inconsistent with what he says. Tim is mafia.
Ok so. Did you see it? Lemme break it down for you.
-he comes out swinging with fresh eyes
-gives everyone a patdown (including a ‘meh’ falcon wedged in there)
-ultimately comes away with a scum team of falcon/nacho/LC/tim. What are the odds...only one of those is bad?
-Tim is baaaad
-the falcon/Tim/LC 2-2-2 tie is a-ok
-(once the falcon wagon picked up steam) well, I’m fine leaving my vote there
-(the falcon wagon is screaming out of the station) that Tim tho. He BAD! Votes Tim
I don’t believe that Vulgard ever really thought falcon would be lynched that day. He was looking for something-{anything}-to slander Tim for, and could justify him switching off and still making it look like he was actually cool with falcon.